California Politics 360 Full Interview

[0:00] Joining us now is Paul Mitchell with Political Data Inc. Paul, we really appreciate you being [0:04] here today. Thanks for having me. So Paul, you built a data tool that allows people to input [0:09] polling numbers, campaign spending, to sort of spit out what the scenario could end up in November. [0:16] Yeah. Right now, it has a 12% chance that a Republican on Republican could end up being [0:24] the governor's race. How is that possible? So this is something that for the last several [0:31] months, I've had reporters and others calling me and saying, you know, we have these polls [0:35] where Republicans are like maybe the first and second candidates in a poll. Is it possible they [0:40] could both make it into the runoff in November, given the state's top two primary? And so it's [0:45] one thing just to say, well, we can dismiss that. That's not likely to happen. It's never happened [0:49] before. But what I ended up doing a few months ago is I started doing this little program for [0:54] myself. [0:54] Where I created a program that looked at the polling and basically ran a simulation of the [1:00] election. But when you run simulations, you have to account for different probabilities. So I [1:04] actually set it up to run a thousand simulations or 5,000 simulations. And then I started making [1:10] it more sophisticated, like looking at fundraising and other things and decided like, I'm getting so [1:15] many questions about it. Let's just make this a public tool. So I had some fun with it, put some [1:20] funny graphics together, made it so that anybody can go in, they can set different [1:24] parameters. They can see what happens when they run that election simulation. They can even mess [1:31] with things like take some candidates out of the race or give somebody a hundred million dollar [1:35] independent expenditure and then rerun it to see what happens. And it's a, it is a serious tool in [1:40] that it's literally using math and a lot of the same modeling that like a Nate Silver or somebody [1:46] would be doing to kind of project. So it's serious in the math, but it's trying to be playful in how [1:51] we look at this so far out because, you know, polling is almost always about the same thing. And [1:54] polling is only so determinative this far out. There's a lot that's going to happen. And as we [1:59] get closer to the election, I'm sure there'll be a lot more clarity. [2:02] Playful with the numbers, but still showing this slight chance. [2:06] This slight chance. And it, you know, it isn't something that should be dismissed. I mean, [2:11] if, if there was a 12% chance of me getting an accident, driving over here, we'd be doing this [2:16] by zoom. There's no way I would get in the car. So like, and, and we have to be concerned in our [2:20] lives about things that are small probabilities and the democratic party, [2:24] I should be concerned about this small probability that two Republicans make the runoff because it [2:30] could really politically decimate them for November. Um, even so much as, you know, [2:36] impacting that prop 50 result and the competitive congressional races that could Republicans could [2:41] win, um, impacting ballot measures, impacting other statewide races. The reality is, is that [2:48] if two Republicans were on the ballot in November, democratic turnout would be so decimated that [2:54] it could really impact the politics statewide and potentially nationally. And so I was putting [3:00] this out. There's kind of a sound the alarm for some people who are asking questions about what's [3:05] the likely outcome. Well, some people are gathering in San Francisco this upcoming weekend, the [3:09] California democratic party is having its convention there where they could endorse a candidate for [3:16] governor. I mean, how important is it that they do that? Could a California democratic party [3:21] endorsement maybe help with this scenario? Well, definitely. [3:24] Democratic party endorsement for one of these candidates could massively elevate them, but I [3:28] don't think that it's likely to happen. There's a 60% threshold. I think it is. Um, and, uh, all [3:34] these candidates that are running have their own political bases. And I don't think that in the [3:39] next week and a half, you know, that voter, the voters in the delegation process at the convention [3:44] are going to end up rallying behind one of these candidates. So I don't think that they'll have a [3:49] party endorsement. Uh, but you might start seeing other political leaders, uh, come out and start [3:53] doing endorsements. Adam Schiff, uh, endorsing recently, there are other people who could make [3:59] an impact on this race potentially. And there might be more impetus for them to rally behind [4:06] candidates going into election day. If they're concerned that they could end up with a small [4:12] chance of Republican on Republican general, you mentioned Senator Adam Schiff, him going ahead [4:17] and endorsing Congressman Eric Swalwell. I mean, how does that help him in the scenarios in the [4:23] numbers? [4:23] Well, I don't have an endorsement index. I could maybe potentially add that for fun. Um, but, uh, [4:30] a lot of endorsements aren't going to matter a lot. You know, if it's like a local assembly [4:33] member or somebody like that, endorsing a member, uh, somebody for governor, that's not a big deal. [4:38] Adam Schiff polls is one of the most popular, uh, elected officials in the state, particularly for [4:44] Democrats and even more so for likely democratic primary voters. So you'd have to put like Newsom [4:50] Schiff, Padilla, Nancy Pelosi is kind of like the top four potential endorsements out there. Um, so I [4:57] think that that's meaningful. Um, but there's a long way to go. There's, you know, a big campaign [5:03] is going to happen and we're probably going to, like I said, we'll see more as this campaign takes [5:08] shape. Why haven't we seen bigger names like Governor Gavin Newsom, for example? Why aren't [5:14] we seeing anyone come out and say, okay, that person should advance. I want to see that person [5:19] in the November general. [5:20] Well, I think right now, a lot of people in that position like Governor Newsom, [5:25] what's the real benefit for him in trying to do this kind of endorsement? I think he probably [5:29] looks at the field and sees, well, there's a few candidates that I'd be happy with, [5:33] you know, being my replacement that I think would continue my agenda. Um, and, uh, it's probably [5:40] just in his best interest to kind of sit on the sidelines, at least for now. Um, and, uh, you know, [5:46] so I don't know what could cause him. And historically, I don't think if somebody asked me, [5:51] I don't, [5:51] I don't think that, you know, Jerry Brown didn't really endorse his successor. I don't think, [5:56] you know, it's common necessarily for governors in California to endorse their successors. [6:00] But just being in this scenario where the field is so wide, there's obviously pressure for some [6:05] of them to drop out, some to step up, money to go somewhere. I mean, [6:10] yeah. So let's say we're having the sit down in the second week of May and we're like, [6:16] people are voting. Let's say that model shows a 40% chance of two Republicans making them [6:21] run. [6:21] Then I think you would see Newsom, everybody, Hakeem Jeffries, Obama. There would have to be [6:27] some like meeting of the minds to say, like, we can't have that outcome. So we need to [6:32] do something. But we're so far out. I don't think that it's necessary yet. [6:36] Independent expenditures. That's when not necessarily the campaign directly is spending [6:41] money, but outside forces are helping in the race. How could that help? Like a Matt Mahan, [6:47] for example, it could, it could massively help. Um, [6:51] and if you go in there and you do add $100 million to Matt Mahan or or put $200 million in for Steyer [6:57] because he said potentially might spend that much. Um, it does impact the model. Uh, the [7:04] challenges with with Mahan is he's so new to the race. He hasn't even been included in a lot of [7:09] polling. He's at this really odd, super high, uh, number in the betting markets. So you can [7:16] actually include that if you want to in the model. But in most polling, he's still like two, [7:21] three, 4%. Um, and so even if you give him a big independent expenditure, it really he has to [7:29] start to show that he translates to voters. There was a Super Bowl ad for him, a $1.4 million [7:34] expenditure, more than like the five lowest ranking Democratic candidates have in all their [7:40] bank accounts. Um, and we'll see if that moves the needle as we get polling in the next few [7:46] weeks. What happens if another Republican decides to either get in this race or is elevated [7:51] in the race? That is the real issue is that there's only two Republicans who are capturing [7:56] the majority of the roughly 40% of votes that are going to Republican candidates. But there are [8:01] like eight Democrats that are splitting the 60% that are going to Democrats. I think I might have [8:07] said that backwards. Um, the 40% of votes going to Republicans are being split by two candidates [8:13] in the 60% of votes that are going to Democrats are being split by like eight candidates. And [8:17] that's what's causing this. If a third Republican or a fourth Republican [8:22] starts to get a lot of support, then this risk of a Republican versus Republican general [8:28] election goes away. Um, but again, you might see the national Republican groups looking [8:35] at this and hearing what Paul Mitchell is saying. And they think, aha, we actually want [8:39] to see two Republicans make the runoff. That's probably their best chance of actually getting [8:43] a Republican governor in California is through this kind of fluke of the top two primary [8:48] system where you could end up having, you know, two Republicans. [8:52] At 19% on election day and the top voting getting Democrat at 18 and down and, uh, end up with [9:02] something in California that we haven't seen since 2006, which would be a Republican governor. [9:07] Wow. Well, there's still a lot of time to sort all this out with, with this data tool before I let [9:12] you go. I know it's really young in its life still, but have you had any feedback, any reception, [9:17] any campaign reached out to you? Say, uh, I had a campaign. I had a, [9:23] a candidate for governor text me just said, said, Paul, like, what are you doing? What [9:29] are you doing? Uh, but it was in jest. Um, I think that, uh, if people go to the website, [9:34] it's got some goofy graphics. I use the twins theme of, uh, uh, Schwarzenegger and DeVito [9:39] and just put the candidates faces on that. Um, so it's playful and funny. So I got a [9:45] couple of laughs. I think that's mostly it. Paul Mitchell. We appreciate your insight. [9:49] Thank you. Thanks for having me.