Growth Leads Before Fed, Huge Earnings; Tesla, Nucor, Tenet Healthcare In Focus — Stock Market Today

[00:00:00] Speaker ?: Субтитры сделал DimaTorzok [00:00:30] Speaker 1: Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Tuesday, October 27th. It's Alyssa Coram here and growth leading ahead of some more big earnings reports and the Fed this week. So we've got a lot of catalysts there. How are the indexes looking and where's the strength underneath the surface? Joining me now to explain all of that is my colleague, IBD News Editor Ed Carson. Ed, great to see you. What are we going to be looking at today? [00:00:57] Ed Carson: Yeah, I'd like to take a look at Tesla, Nucor, and Tenant Healthcare. [00:01:02] Speaker 1: Okay, we'll check out those stocks. But as always, we want to take a closer look at the major indexes. Here's a look at the NASDAQ composite, up 1.2% on the day. The NASDAQ 100 was even stronger, up some 1.3%. The S&P 500 with the most notable technical move on the day, Ed, getting above a lot of its converging moving averages. Today's gain, 0.6%. The Dow was just ever so slightly in positive territory today with a fractional gain. And the Russell 2000 also with a notable technical move, getting back above its 200-day line. So let's start with the S&P 500. Here's a look at SPY. So this is an encouraging development. But of course, we've got a lot of headlines waiting in the wings to potentially either throw a wrench in things or help boost this notable progress that we made today. What do you say? [00:02:03] Ed Carson: Yeah, I mean, it's right above the 50-day line. You know, it's going to do a little trend line. We've done a lot of little trend lines that often seem to be like we poke above it and then come back down. But this is an important area where you have to say 1.5% below all-time high. So you could have a strong day tomorrow or whatever, and we could be at record highs. And obviously, it'd be very easy to get back below the 50-day line or even recent lows, you know, the very short-term lows. So, yeah, there's a lot of things going on. It's one of those things you're going into huge news. How are we going to do in that situation? So reasons to be positive, but also, you know, you just – how aggressive do you want to be when there's so much about to happen for the market? [00:02:49] Speaker 1: Exactly. So incremental, like we said, and we'll take things one step at a time. It seems like to the upside, Ed, the next level to conquer for the S&P would be the highs from 1021 on our way to all-time highs. So that's what we'll be watching there. You mentioned those downside levels. The NASDAQ, again, the percentage gain today was stronger, but it's in a weaker position. We talked about this potential shakeout right at that 26,000 level. So far, it does look like a shakeout, but we still haven't gotten above the 50-day line, the red line on the chart, the 21-day, which is what we trend followers like to use, that green line. So will we see resistance? Will this be the next one following the S&P to get back above that level? The major earnings reports this week could have a lot to do with that. [00:03:44] Ed Carson: Yeah, and that's part of it. We could rally above the 50-day line tomorrow, and then Microsoft and Google, along with a lot of other earnings, could knock it back down. Or we could hit resistance tomorrow, and then we surge through. So it's just hard to get, again, you can make incremental moves just knowing that you might have to pull them off pretty quickly, or if you don't do anything, be ready to step in on Thursday or Friday, even though that raises, you know, then comes into the election. So it just seems to be so many boom, boom, boom, boom, so many big things. But technically, yeah, we're right there, you know, one good day, and all of a sudden, we start looking a lot better. There are some levels to the left-hand side, you say, like, you could draw, or getting above those. But yeah, so we'll have to see. One thing is that while there are some stocks that are setting up a little bit, like Tesla, or there's a few, like NetApp, there's a few names, some software names. But a lot of the big winners this week are these beaten-down AI names that are still, that aren't really in position. So that's pushing things up on the NASDAQ, and well, that also, if you rally into those earnings, if there's anything bad on AI, you could see those names falling really hard. So just, there's reasons to be encouraged, reasons to be building your watches. So just, again, don't want anybody to get over their skis too much, you know, heading into this. [00:05:02] Speaker 1: Yeah, great points, Ed, and I think practically and tactically speaking, it seems like if traders do want to take signals on the index action, whether it's the S&P or stocks underneath the surface that meet all of their selection criteria, making sure that that risk management profile is where we want it to be, right? Like you said, not getting over your skis, maybe for now, since we don't have a clear power trend, maybe really thinking about that, that position size and where you're setting your stop. I know on IBD Live, we've been talking about perhaps smaller size, wider stops, given this kind of environment. And it seems like with the potential whipsaw or fake out, you know, go tomorrow, fade the next day or go tomorrow and whatever it may be, any sort of fake outs as the week progresses, that could be helpful in this scenario. [00:06:05] Ed Carson: And you might consider, I mean, taking very partial profits, almost treated like things like swing trade, just to lock something in. If you get like a 5% gain, you might want to take a piece off because it's just been one of those markets. Even if you go into the stocks sectors that are doing well, like I'm going to go into consumer names, well, some of them, you know, pull back, you know, right after they make a bullish move. So even if it looks fine, it's hard to make headway. It's just been a tricky market. And again, we're not in that April to June scenario where you have these clear trending markets. You have these short-term flows. We have sector rotation. So, yeah, I mean, again, it's definitely more of a nimble situation. If you don't like doing that, I'll be honest, I don't like doing it too much, you know, you don't play as much and you stay with more cash. So, you know, do what works for you. And definitely, you know, this is, there's going to be a lot of backtesting, reviewing. Did I do the right thing? What should I have done, you know, for my style of trading or how should my style of trading, you know, after the fact, look back on it? [00:07:05] Speaker 1: Exactly. All right. Let's move on. Quick thoughts on the other major indexes. Here's the Dow. What do you make of where things stand with blue chips? [00:07:17] Ed Carson: I mean, that's what we're doing all right. Again, if this is part of it, if we shift back to risk on, well, maybe some of these, maybe the more safe Dow names that have been leading will come off. Boeing had a bad day today. It's not the biggest name in the Dow, but, you know, they'll repel. So this is, all major indexes are right around their 50-day lines. I mean, that's, let's be, you know, we, it would not take much to have all these indexes look very good or very bad. I mean, we're just at those levels and it just feels like, I mean, they obviously haven't met it, but it feels like they've been right around their 50-day line for four months. Obviously, they haven't, but it just feels like that's the kind of market that we've been in. Just a little bit more strength than you're good, just a little more weakness than you're bad. And, you know, it's tough. [00:08:02] Speaker 1: It is, but at the same time, to play devil's advocate, I guess, if, you know, best case scenario, looking at the cup half full is, you know, if stocks are in a better position, if we do start seeing more momentum to the upside, then I feel like that's better than being in a clear position of weakness. I feel like that would be even tougher to sort of, you know, from a technical standpoint, give yourself reasons to get back in, right? So, yeah, at least we have that. [00:08:40] Ed Carson: And you have to balance it, because what if we really do take off? You don't want to wait too long, because then, you know, because then it could be, well, if you get in five days into a strong move, is that when things turn or fall back or are a lot of the good things out? So, again, you have to balance it. I think I'm partly, some of this is just to make sure that I don't get too enthusiastic. I don't want, there's a lot of people out there, you want to jump in at the first sign of strength. And it's just like, it's not a put the pedal to the thing, but it's also not slam on the brakes. There's a lot of reasons to be bullish, a lot of new barriers. It's just tricky to navigate. But no, if I say a glass is half empty, it is still half full. It absolutely is. And so, I don't, you know, that's, it's just something to balance right now. [00:09:23] Speaker 1: Yeah. No, it's so true. And I mean, an extreme example recently would be Brazil, right? Yeah. You know, so you never know what's going to happen out there. You could have a situation that's looking really good. And then, yeah, I'm not saying that this is going to happen to the U.S. market, but it's just, again, an extreme example of an unknown shift in the market and just needing to, be careful. Yeah, not, not get too, too optimistic too early. Okay. Let's move on. And here's just a quick look at the average stock. Here's RSB. It looks kind of similar to the Dow, actually, hovering back above the 50-day line, Ed. [00:10:11] Ed Carson: Yeah, just a little stronger than that. If you had stocks like this, you'd be pretty fine with it or be looking. There's a lot of stocks like this setting up. There's some proto handles, early entry type things. So this is a positive for sure. Here's USO, Ed. I mean, this is probably a little bit of the reason why things have rallied the last couple of days. I mean, it's not major moves, but pulling back on that really big move we saw on Friday. [00:10:35] Speaker 1: Okay. And then we'll also check out some of the ETFs. Here's a look at the consumer staples, this sort of risk off, flight to safety. Also seeing that come off today. So giving us another clue about the shift in the market in recent sessions. And here's also a look at retail. We've seen strength in this area lately. Victoria's Secret, Urban Outfitters, those sort of come to mind here. This is still holding up, though it has come off the last couple of days. And again, this is the broader retail area. We can also take a look at crack. This is the oil refiner. So a notable move to the downside here today, Ed, with a 3.7% decline, putting this industry group via the ETF below the 50-day line after a big move. [00:11:24] Ed Carson: Yeah. I mean, it may be just that it's had such a big move. It needs to come off and maybe the spread, maybe the actual crack spread between crude and gasoline and diesel is narrow to the, I don't know. But technically, this is a real signal that maybe those who rode this up, you know, might want to lighten up if they haven't already. [00:11:45] Speaker 1: Okay. Let's also take a look at the chips. Another big move. Like you said, a lot of the movers today, AI names that got really hard hit and out of position. So after kicking off the week with a gain of 2.4%, adding another 3% today, Ed, leading. [00:12:03] Ed Carson: Yeah, there's a few names in the chip and AI space that are looking good, but a lot of them look like this or worse. And, you know, in a way, I'm not a short seller, but if you put a short seller account, it's like, well, if you rally up into that, you can just imagine rallying into that and then, boom, Microsoft or Google or then the next day Amazon says something, you know, et cetera, et cetera, and just get hammered. So, yeah, this is still needs more work to do for sure. [00:12:33] Speaker 1: And we'll take a look at software IGV up about four tenths of a percent on the day, now up three days in a row and near prior recent highs bugged the cybersecurity area even stronger. So a very impressive move here for cybersecurity stocks, you know, shook me out last week, only to come back even stronger this week. So I would say within technology and within software, this continues to be an impressive area of leadership. [00:13:05] Ed Carson: Yeah, and I keep on hammering Microsoft and Google, but we have ServiceNow and Fortinet that report tomorrow. So some big names in the, you know, that's a big cybersecurity name, not the leader, but it's the first one. And ServiceNow is one of the big general business software makes. So, yeah, but IGV is probably the most consistent. Despite the ups and downs, it's consistently stayed up there. If you could have, if you can hold those things, it's generally held the 50-day line, generally trended up over the last several months. [00:13:31] Speaker 1: Exactly, and we'll get a pulse on medical with a couple of ETFs here, just checking in. Not a whole lot of movement in the XLV, but it is still holding a breakout from last week. Also, XBI looking at biotech, a strong move today, up 2.9%, still below the 50-day line, but clearing a trend line. IBB, similar, but a different weighting here, also a strong day, up 1.7%, around its 50-day line, bouncing off that level outside day, upside reversal. And then here's a look at ARKG, the bit more of the high-octane area, this genomic revolution ETF, up 6% today. So, what was driving this today, Ed? [00:14:17] Ed Carson: There were a lot of testing firms, I think, a lot of, TEM, T-E-M is a name. I think they, if they don't have GRAIL, they have things like GRAIL. You know, a lot of those names just had big moves. They sold off a little bit, but they've had really good moves. Yeah, this is why when you have these sector ETFs, you want to look under the hood. And, you know, this one has a pretty big move stated today, but it's clearly been this, what you want to own in biotech and testing. [00:14:49] Speaker 1: Yeah, so, after that downside reversal, off highs, a sell signal there, it seems like today, perhaps an opportunity to get back in. But, like you said, know what you own, this is more high-octane. [00:15:05] Ed Carson: And while this is probably high up, I think SwingTrader added this. And I think SwingTrader is doing a lot of ETF buying. So, one thing is that, you know, you can consider with all the things that are going on, with all the risks out there, I mean, you can go for low stocks with low ATRs, but sector ETFs often have lower ATRs in the individual name. So, that's another way to try to play this. So, it's definitely something to consider in this kind of market. [00:15:30] Speaker 1: Exactly, yeah, and that's another reason why I like the TQQQ during a power trend, because I feel like I'm getting that juice without the ATR, same kind of ATR, and single stock risk as a number of the other growth names. And, yeah, and the volatility. Okay, let's take a look underneath the hood here, Ed. Tesla, you flagged this for the team yesterday with that move above the 200-day line. And today, adding to that up another 4%, it cleared a trend line, got over the 400 level, which I feel like going back on the chart is notable. So, there's the trend line, and then I want to show either on a weekly or maybe even a month, I think a monthly. [00:16:14] Ed Carson: Yeah, either way, you can probably do it for the whole one. It's sort of, oh, there, yeah, the monthly. [00:16:18] Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like 400 is just a key level here that I'm keeping tabs on. And what a week this stock is, or well, I guess this is the month to date. [00:16:30] Ed Carson: This is the month, but it's a strong, strong reaction. Yeah, I think yesterday came right up to the trend line that you can go back to a few months. But that trend line really goes all the way back, as the weekly shows, to December 2025. So, that, I think, was the buy signal. It got above all those levels. It's aggressive still. There's still a lot of overhead. Whether you treat this as a cup base or as a weird double bottom, I mean, because I do sort of feel like that's how you could sort of treat it. Either way, the official buy point would be the high from a few months. The middle of the W or the left-hand side of the cup right in there. But this is probably where you want to get into it because there's still some distance where you start. The only real, I mean, look, the fundamentals aren't great. The real issue here is that a lot of the movement has been, there's SpaceX merger buzz. And that's always tricky because it's like, well, you say, well, they're going to merge. Well, you don't know for sure. If there is, for some reason, they don't. Or let's say they offer 400. Oops, it goes down. Or let's say they offer 420. Okay, there's some upside. Then what does SpaceX drop? All of a sudden, the stock is worth 380. Oh, and there's a discount because you don't know if it's really going to close. So there was a 370. So you could be absolutely right that there's a merger. And, you know, I'm just, I'm not saying that it's, but it just adds a level. I generally stay away from merger buzz and merger things. Doesn't mean, look, it could be 450 and the stock goes up to 445 and you make some easy money. So, or it just rallies beyond that. There is no merger. But anyway, it's just, that's the concern I have when you buy. But that's more in general on that. But technically, nice action. And if you really wanted to get into Tesla, I think this was the moment to, you know, today was the day to do it probably. Right. [00:18:19] Speaker 1: Great points on the merger angle there and how that could impact the stock for better or worse. And I think that's also why we, you know, knowing the risks, that's why we like relying on charts for entry points because it helps you know when to get out if you do see the trade go against you. So that 200-day line or the 40-week, the black line on the chart, a good level to watch here for traders. Okay, let's go to Nucor. This is NUE in the Steel Producers Group. Actionable today as it clears a trend line. You can also look at a horizontal line as well. Shares up 5%. And this is on earnings. We've got that nice acceleration that we like to see, Ed. Triple digit growth on the bottom line. Also accelerating revenue growth. This is, you know, I would say one, two, you know, couple of quarters of accelerating growth there, which is exactly what. The bulls want to see here and growth investors. So what are your thoughts? [00:19:22] Ed Carson: I mean, it actually missed on earnings by like a penny or one, you know, but it still reacted well. They guided higher for the current quarter. Essentially on earnings. So nice action here. Steel prices are at a four-year high. There are some rumors that there's maybe U.S. Canada talking on steel tariffs, but the stock didn't react to that. The stock didn't, you know, and that's just talk. Who knows what happens? So there's just that risk out there. But, yeah, strong earnings, moving above, you know, some, a pretty good, it's an early entry, but it's not super aggressive. I think this is the place where you would probably want to be getting into it with all those levels you were mentioning. There's this, you know, the industry group is doing pretty well. Just nice action overall here. Relative strength line isn't at a new high, but pretty close. And, again, a way to play into something that is growing, but it's not AI, it's not software, it's not consumer. So if you're, I think it's not, you don't want to get too concentrated in one area because there's the risk of sector rotation or this or that. And this, I think, is a name that could definitely fit into somebody's portfolio. [00:20:30] Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think what's also nice is you have the strength today, but you, it's not a breakout to highs. So it doesn't feel late, which is something that, you know, the last breakout resulted in a new base. But the one before that, of course, did work. So right now it's trading about 6.5% above the 10-week. So if you're using that as your stop, that's how you can kind of back into your risk there. On the trade, and then we'll go to THC, this is Tenant Healthcare Hospital Stocks. So not a great finish to the day, Ed, shares down 2.6%, closing just below some key moving averages ahead of earnings. [00:21:16] Ed Carson: Yeah, so what happened here, nothing to do with Tenant, but every, this is why you pay attention not only to earnings for your company, but to companies of rivals or suppliers and so on. If you look at HCA, just very briefly, HCA hasn't been as strong. HCA broke out, then reversed lower. Well, on their conference call, which started after the market opened, which, ah, that's always the, this would have been avoided. I mean, a lot of the pain on this, but Tenant Healthcare, but HCA basically guided lower for 2027. You know, maybe some lower bonus payments, and they're going to have more uninsured. So we'll see. Tenant Healthcare, you know, a couple of days could have great results. And it's just, but you don't know. And, you know, if you bought above the 50-day line, maybe early entry, tried to do it that way, or was trying to sneak it into it yesterday morning, or even today, you know, right after the open, say, aha, here we go. And before the open, it was actually flirting with a breakout. That's what can happen here. And that's just tricky. It's not ruined. You know, this could come right back. But, again, this is just how important it is to be paying attention to earning season broadly, heading into things. But, yeah, this has been acting well, but really a difficult day today. [00:22:31] Speaker 1: And a great lesson there. And who knows? It did close off lows, so maybe this is just a little bit more of a shakeout in that handle before its own earnings report. But, like you said, we don't know, so we'll have to see what the earnings report is like later this week. And speaking of staying on top of earnings, Ed, what's looking interesting after the close? [00:22:55] Ed Carson: Well, let's take a look at Cake, Cheesecake Factory. This one sort of had a breakout. That was a handle. It was a flat bar. It's not showing up, but there was a handle in there. And then it tried to break out of the cut base. Either way, it's below the buy point. It found support in the 50-day line, so it's one of those that's like you might have had to sell heading into earnings. It is bouncing here, so it could be something that's actionable tomorrow. I didn't see. I think they modestly beat. We'll see. Again, overnight action could change, but positive to start. [00:23:25] Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's another reminder because Meta, last week after ours, initially positive, and then we saw what happened the next day. So a good reminder for us in the audience as well that that initial reaction may not be what we see come tomorrow's regular session. But like you said, a good start. So we'll see if it can build on this. Where should we go next? [00:23:46] Ed Carson: Visa. Not a whole lot. It's moving down. I think it beat Fuse. It's just falling down a little bit modestly. We'll see how it goes. And also just note that MasterCard has earnings later in the week. But, you know, this has been doing well, so it's not a shocker to see it pull back. So we'll just see how that goes. F5, that one has been one of the stronger names in the, you know, among the, yeah, I would just wait for it, wait for it to come up on, yeah. [00:24:14] Speaker 1: There we go. I'm too impatient, Ed. [00:24:18] Ed Carson: I know, believe me. I do it three times and then I say, wait a second, just wait. But, yeah, this one is sort of pausing, sort of near the 21-day line. It's retreating here on earnings. I think they beat Fuse. So we'll see how things go. This is one of the, you know, some of these names of software, but it sort of feels like, you know, this has been doing pretty well, holding up in more of an AI type name, even though it's software. Seagate, this is disappointing, and again, shows you, as far as I could tell, they crushed views, and they guided up nicely. I don't know what they might have said about this or that, but negative reaction. This is one of the first of several memory plays that reports this week. SK Hynix will be reporting in a couple of hours. They'll technically be reporting tomorrow, but in Korea. This one looks terrible, but it's important for other names. So we'll see. Another name is NXPI. This is NXPI Semiconductor, not a leader, but some other analog chip makers like ADI and Texas Instruments, they've been doing well. So we'll see if this has any repercussions for those names. So there's plenty there. There'll be plenty of more earnings coming out, but those are some early moves on earnings after the close today. [00:25:34] Speaker 1: There'll be plenty of more earnings coming out, but there'll be plenty of more earnings coming out, but there'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of more earnings coming out, but there'll be plenty of earnings coming out, but there'll be plenty of earnings coming out. [00:26:01] Ed Carson: There'll be plenty of earnings coming out, but there'll be plenty of earnings coming out, but there'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out, but there'll be plenty of earnings coming out, and there'll be plenty of earnings coming out, but there'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out, but there'll be plenty of earnings coming out, and there'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out, and there'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. There'll be plenty of earnings coming out. Some of what's been going on already is that AI stocks might have been moving in part. There have been a lot of analysts on Wall Street say, well, that this could be a negative fallout for AI stocks. Some of it already may be priced in. So, and again, it's the market reaction that matters, but this could be a big thing. I mean, the market could simply be up or down a lot. So, we could get through this gauntlet of earnings this week, and either things are great or terrible, and then it could be completely reversed. And even beyond that, there's the possibility of renewed stepped-up hostilities with Iran. So, there's a lot of uncertainty with the election and even just after that. So, yeah, it is just a major move, and there's not much to do about it. I just think there's another reason just to be cautious, because things could turn over either for the market or for sectors in terms of good or bad. Again, things could be great. The market could just absolutely take off on the election results, but you just don't know how that's going to go. And so, just something for, you know, investors to, if one more thing to worry about or consider in the next week or so. [00:27:58] Speaker 1: Exactly. And I would say, from an IBD perspective, how do we navigate times like this? We fall back on our principles, right? Yeah. Follow the market's lead, not the headlines. Headlines. We, of course, need those headlines for context, and they're very important, but ultimately, let your portfolio and let the leading stocks and major indexes be your guide. And then, of course, you want to manage risk with your portfolio, so not taking big swings if the market is on shaky ground, making sure that you are focusing on the strongest stocks in the market and not making mistakes, right, with your portfolio because of what you believe personally or what you think should happen. Follow what you're actually seeing unfold and make sure that you're cutting your losses if you need to, and if you're buying, because there can be some twists and turns, you want to make sure that the position size and where you're buying, not stretching too far or not buying laggard stocks. So go back to those fundamental principles that are going to keep your portfolio protected and help you flourish over the long run. Right, Ed? I completely agree. [00:29:13] Ed Carson: And I'll also add, next Tuesday, I mean, I do the overnight stock market column, but next Tuesday, on election night, I'm going to do more of a blog format, and I'll do some election coverage. I'm not going to tell you who won the attorney general's race in Illinois. I don't care. I'm going to be, it's going to be more of the market reaction that, excuse me, I'll note, oh, this is happening, and futures are doing this, you know, or these stock or sectors seem to be moving. So just to try to keep it, I'll be doing that on election night again. Just, again, trying to focus on, you know, put some context on things, but again, the important thing will be the market reaction, not the election results per se. Right. [00:29:52] Speaker 1: Yes. Looking at things through an investor lens versus a political lens. [00:29:57] Ed Carson: Absolutely. [00:29:58] Speaker 1: Absolutely. We appreciate it, Ed. Thanks so much for weighing in. Thank you. And thanks everyone for tuning in. That's it from us for today. And we will be back with more tomorrow morning on IBD Live. We're going to be joined by Mark Minervini. So we'll get his pre-election portfolio preparedness tips as well on IBD Live in the morning. So join us starting 10 minutes before the opening bell for that and more. Again, big earnings week. I want to know, and we want to know what stocks he's focused on right now. So investors.com/IBD Live for all those details. We'll see you there. And then we'll also see you right back here tomorrow after the close. We'll see you there. [00:30:37] Speaker ?: We'll see you there. We'll see you there. Okay. Thank you. Thank you.