Market Has Another No-Good-Terrible Week; Apple, Enova, Crane In Focus — Stock Market Today

[00:00:00] Speaker ?: . [00:00:30] Alyssa Coram: Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Stock Market Today for Friday, July 24th. It's Alyssa Coram here and another terrible week for the Nasdaq Composite, a major undercut there and weakening in a lot of the tech leaders with some big earnings reports that were quite disappointing, but we're getting some mixed messages. We'll break down what we're seeing underneath the surface, and here to do that with me now is my colleague, Justin Nielsen. Justin, good to see you, even on a not so good, terrible, bad day for the Nasdaq. [00:01:17] Justin Nielsen: You take the good, you take the bad, right? Yeah. You take them both, and there you have, fill in the blank. Exactly. Good little rhyme there. If you grew up in the 80s. No, it's the facts of life. It's the theme song. Never mind. Before your [00:01:29] Alyssa Coram: time. It was. It was, for sure. What do we have today? [00:01:34] Justin Nielsen: Let's take a look at Apple because, hey, look, there's a mixed message in the Mag 7, too, and Apple is looking very different from a lot of the others. We'll also take a look at Inova. This is one we've been watching on IBD Live. It had a nice pop on earnings today, and Crane. Which, in the industrial space, take a look at that one. [00:01:52] Alyssa Coram: Okay. Sounds like a plan. We will do that. And first, let's take a closer look at those major indexes. Seeing a lot of red here for the Nasdaq composite. Today's decline down 0.6%. And in terms of where we closed, we did close below that early June low, Justin, at 24,980. And that's a level we've been watching in addition to that round number of 25,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 did finish fractionally higher, but a couple of days here now in a row finishing off highs, and now a few sessions below that 50-day moving average. I guess we'll have to see where exactly it does look like the 21-day, at least on this VOO ETF, Justin, is now indeed officially below the 50-day turning off the power trend there. [00:02:51] Justin Nielsen: Yeah. And it seemed like just a matter of time, right? Because you can't go sideways for that long and keep your 21-day above your 50-day moving average line. But again, it's just one more chink in the armor here. And I feel like we just keep on getting those chinks week after week, day after day. There's a lot that's just not working with this market right now. And the hard part is, it's not completely falling apart. You have these moments of hope and optimism. Let's just take a look real quick at DRAM, D-R-A-M, which includes a lot of the memory chip stocks. And earlier this week, it was like, oh, here we go. They're coming back. You had the likes of Micron and SanDisk and Western Digital and Seagate, all kind of looking like they were improving and looking like they were going to get above their 50-day moving average lines. And some of them did. But then the way that this week ended, again, it's really tough to get too excited. And just looking at the broader chip space with either SMH or SOXX, again, it was something where you're rallying up into that 50-day moving average line and then you get turned away. That's not a good look. In fact, David Ryan, three-time investing champion and protege of William O'Neill, came on our IBD Live show to just remind people of what he's been saying over and over for the last couple of weeks. Hey, any time I see a two- to three-day rally, I don't trust it. And I start shorting as it runs into those moving average lines and gets turned away. And we just, yeah, look at that. NBIS down 15%. That's what we're seeing a lot of out there with the former leaders. Meanwhile, where is the strength? XLP, the staples, that's not typically a resounding full-throated, here we go. KIE, which is your insurance, a lot of those have been looking strong. Today, you did have the 10-year treasury yield come in a little bit. We talked on the podcast about the breakout here for the 10-year treasury yield and the 30-year treasury yield with TYX. So that came in a little bit and that helped some of your real estate, XLRE, ITB, the home construction area. But even those, it's not like I'm getting excited about home construction underneath the 200-day moving average line. So I feel like even where the strength is, it's in areas that are not in position in a lot of cases. Insurance is, again, one exception, but those do tend to be a little bit slower and not as dynamic as our AI leaders of the past that we just had a great time with. [00:05:48] Alyssa Coram: Yeah. And then I would also say in terms of what really moved the market this week, what set the tone, you have a couple of different things. You have, like you said, the spiking treasury yields. You also had oil make a big move this week coming off a little bit Friday, but still a big couple of weeks for oil, big couple of weeks for yields. And then on the earnings front, some disappointing reactions from names that have a big impact on the indexes. You know, Google gapping down below its 200-day after its report, increasing its AI spending. Tesla also plunging, not in a good position heading into the report. But these weighing down a lot of the index action too. And, you know, of course you have, if Google's spending more, maybe that means good things for some of the AI hardware. But to your point, I mean, by the end of the week, a lot of that faded, that short-term optimism. [00:06:54] Justin Nielsen: Yeah. And I think that's what we were seeing, right? Google's loss was kind of the gain for the memory stocks to a certain degree, but it just couldn't hold. And, you know, if you go ahead and pull up the Magnificent Seven MAGS, you know, this is a Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF, you know, that fell below its 200-day moving average line. And it's really tough, you know, when you've got so many of these trillion-dollar companies that have a huge weight in the indexes, it's hard for the indexes to make progress when Magnificent Seven is below its 200-day moving average line. In fact, one of the things that, again, just gives a little bit of a funny mixed message is the fact that as ugly as today was, RSP, the equal-weighted S&P 500, was up like, you know, a decent amount today. So, oh, I thought it was up more than that. Oh, yeah, there we go. It was on the weekly. So, yeah, it was up three-quarters of a percent today, you know, on a day where most things were looking pretty terrible. The average S&P 500 stock was up, you know. It just, again, it's sometimes baffling. But again, a lot of the growth stocks that we're looking at, the things that we pay attention to the most, those are certainly on the more negative side. And we're seeing more stocks lose ground, lose their 50-day moving average lines. And especially, you know, the growth ones, that's where it gets really troublesome for our IBD methodology. [00:08:26] Alyssa Coram: Mm-hmm. And some of the areas that we're also seeing strength, you pointed out a lot of great ETFs there. But for the earnings reactions, you know, it's rail stocks. You know, you're also seeing some of the defense aerospace defense names. So notable, but just not sort of your typical growth [00:08:48] Justin Nielsen: areas. Well, it's interesting because one of the things we were talking about earlier this week is ITA, which is the defense, you know, aerospace defense ETF. This had a nice move this week. And a lot of people were kind of scratching their heads because it's like, well, gosh, the aerospace defense group was very lowly rated. It was like in the 140s range, you know, you know, kind of at the bottom of the pack. But what was holding it back was a lot of the big market cap, you know, weighted in this space, like your LMT, your Boeing, your Northrop. These were really lagging below their 200-day moving average lines. And the earnings, like on LMT, for instance, that really kind of, you know, propped the group up. But meanwhile, we've had a number of stocks that looked very interesting in this group. They just weren't those big legacy names. Woodward, as an example, here's your bonus stock, WWD. This one has been looking just fine. And, you know, came down, got support of the 50-day moving average line. And yeah, it's got the fundamentals to boot. Composite rating of 90. There's a lot of stocks, HowMet, HEI, there's a lot of stocks in the aerospace defense space that have looked really strong. And it was just a matter of the legacy stocks kind of catching up. And as you said, it was earnings related. And let's make no mistake, next week, I think I calculated that we have about 180 S&P 500 stocks that are going to be reporting next week. So we saw some of that action in Google, you know, what that can do, how that can kind of make markets move around a bit. And you can expect a lot more of that potentially next week. All of that being said, it makes me not want to stick my neck out too much. The turtle position is very tempting right now. Yeah, I know. You and John Kosar were [00:10:48] Alyssa Coram: talking about that on the on the podcast. So yeah. Yes. The boxing move. Roly-poly. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Justin, before we get to the three stocks, since this is a Friday, what do you think about talking briefly about some of the different precedents that we're taking a look at here? Not a bar by bar type precedent, but sort of the the spirit of right. So I feel like on IBD live now we're talking about sort of two to potential scenarios and we'll see what we end up with. But you have that late 90s precedent where you're chopping higher and then underneath the surface you see the baton of leadership passed on. And then we also more recently have been talking about that 2021 time frame where we did top and roll over. So why don't we look at that one first? You want to humor me with a little [00:11:53] Justin Nielsen: let's do it. Let's do it. A walk down memory lane. Yeah. And, you know, remember that, you know, one of the things about the 2021 top that was so interesting is that here again, we had a very, very different market depending on what you were invested in. For example, if you were in the growth names, you know, the market topped in November. And remember, this is when the Omicron variant of COVID came out, uh, right around Thanksgiving. Um, and it was, you know, knocking things down. But the reality is that a lot of our growth names had really topped in February. Yeah. The arc. The, yeah, arc K really kind of shows how, uh, that, you know, that one topped. And again, this was, you know, between this February, 2021 top and its ultimate low, uh, in 2022, it was, it was a stunning, stunning drop, uh, for, you know, this darling ETF that everyone wanted a piece of. Um, but you know, you had Shopify and square, um, you know, I can't even remember what it was called then. Was it square? Was it block? Was it X, Y, Z? I don't remember. Um, but you know, again, a whole host of what was really leading the market prior to that. Um, a lot of those leaders from 2020, uh, topped well before the indexes did. And to a certain degree, you know, you, you have the indexes going sideways for a lot of that time, holding up, even making some new highs while these leaders were getting destroyed. You know, they were down 30% and yeah, that kind of sounds a little familiar when we're talking about our memory stocks that have had, um, or even our, our fiber optics, Lumentum and names like this that have seen 40% 50% corrections while the S and P 500 is within 3% of an all time high. It's, uh, you know, it really kind of speaks to how, how different sometimes the individual stocks will be reacting, uh, versus the indexes. Um, so yeah. And 2021 and, um, you know, as, as 2022 unfolded, you know, before things really got ugly, you know, we, we did have these undercuts and then we had support and it, there was reason for optimism. And sometimes, you know, you, you were holding the 200 day moving average line and then it looked like, Oh, we're getting support right where you want it. Um, but then it didn't, you know, it didn't hold you rallied up and then it rolled over. Could that be in the cards? It could, but on the other hand, you know, you could get that support at the 200 day and your optimism is rewarded because that ends up being the ultimate bottom. So this is, I think a scenario we have to have in our minds because it did look like it was doing everything right until it didn't. Right. And so that's why a lot of times we want to be very cautious. We want to tread carefully, um, because yes, maybe this, you know, writes itself and everything is fine, but if it doesn't, then you're just kind of digging more and more of a hole and those holes, you know, the deeper you go, the more you have to, uh, have a great year to dig yourself out of, um, and any type of drawdown you get, the worse it gets, the bigger, the, the move you need to get back to even. And so the math really starts working against you. Um, you know, we, we often talk about the losses cutting, you know, 10%. Yeah. You can recover from that. You only need like 11% to get back to even, but you let it go down 25%. Now it's 33% that you need. You let it go down 33%. You need 50%. You let it go down 50%. You need a double just to get back to your starting ground. And that's, [00:15:42] Alyssa Coram: that's what we want to avoid. Exactly. And I think obviously in this late 2021, early 2022 timeframe, different market, right? Different conditions, different factors at play, different leaders, like you were talking about, uh, you know, different rate environment, uh, maybe kind of, I don't know, we might see some rate hikes, but, um, but, uh, you know, we were just saying how sort of eerily similar from a technical perspective, uh, the current NASDAQ looks to something like this with, uh, you know, a couple of lows around a, around number, you do get that close below that level, not quite a close below the, the marked low, uh, but very similar. And I think the other similar thing to point out, Justin is look at the S and P stronger. Yeah. Yeah. You know, so different looking, right. So we're kind of in that environment right now. It's a, it's a very [00:16:42] Justin Nielsen: good precedent. And I think what you also have to remember about precedence when you are using that, while it gives you a gauge of what's possible, you also have to be very mindful of not following it to your death, right? Oh yeah. When, when, when the precedent starts being different, you, you need to recognize that very early on, because if you start trying to fit that, uh, round peg into that square hole, uh, you're going to really get yourself frustrated and, and could potentially lose it. You know, it, anytime you get into a position where you start planting your flag and saying, I'm waiting for this to happen, I'm waiting for the market to agree with me on my thesis. Right. Um, if you get too rigid, that's where things break. You know, the more flexible you can be, the more bending you can do, uh, the less breaking. And so that's what we want to be very aware of. I think it's an excellent precedent, Allie, make no mistake. Um, well, we'll see. Yeah, exactly. You'll, we'll see if it, um, pans out that way and you have to be open and you have to like, again, I think it's good because it makes you think of what could happen and how ugly this could get. And, you know, while we don't know what's going to happen on the hiking cycle, I think we have to have that in the back of our minds that, you know, look, I don't pay too much attention to the fed funds, future rate, because especially going too far out, it can be very wrong, but we are starting to see that change from everyone was talking about cut expectations to now. I mean, I don't see even a cut on the board as even a thought until next year. Um, you know, and, and, and pretty far into the year it's, um, you know, starting to look more and more like, uh, the possibilities of a cut keep on increasing, even for our fed meeting next week. You mean a hike? Um, I hike. Yes. Thank you. I, I, yeah. You know, wishful thinking maybe. Um, yeah. So the, the, the, the chances of a hike keep on increasing for even the meeting next week, certainly September, you know, uh, I think it's up to 80% now. Uh, you start looking at your October and your December, it's up to 90, you know, just under 90 for October and just over 94 December. So, uh, those numbers keep on going up in terms of what the fed funds futures is saying. But as we, as we know, um, the further out you go, the more wrong it can be because a lot of things can happen in the meantime in terms of data. [00:19:07] Alyssa Coram: Right. Yeah. Well, this was a rising rate environment. So just keeping that in mind. And I think the other thing that's good about this, Justin, you said it, this isn't saying, Hey, this is what will happen. This is one of many scenarios that could unfold. And I actually, I think it's good for someone who is bullish on the AI theme like me to make sure that I don't just continue to have my heads head in the clouds and you know, Oh, it's okay. You know, we're gonna bounce back. Of course, you know, of course we'll get support at whatever low or the 200 day, you know, to be ready for something like this, because we made a lot of great gains in that power trend time period. I don't want to give it all back, you know? So I want to be sure that I I'm ready for the potential downside, but of course I'll, I'll be there when the market turns higher. We IBD will be there. [00:20:03] Justin Nielsen: Yeah. And this is where I think the 1999 precedent that you were, you know, has a lot of reasons to be optimistic because not only, you know, in the same way that, okay, maybe this hike cycle is, is something that, you know, put some negative pressure on it. We still have this technology that has a lot of potential. You know, we still don't really know the potential. I mean, even at this time, think of what the internet was doing in the late nineties and think of what, um, what happened just a decade later with the iPhone and how much that changed the use of this internet infrastructure when we had a different way to access it. Um, so in the late nineties, just the reminder is that even after coming up all this way and after a lot of people were saying, well, gosh, there's all these internet companies, they're just slapping.com on their name. Uh, and that's their business model. Uh, a lot of wild west type stuff happening, uh, in terms of the, the, the gold rush type thing. But what, what happened during this time period is that you did have a lot of chop, a lot of slop, a lot of, uh, big downturns in the NASDAQ here again, S and P 500. And the Dow Jones industrial average, not nearly as volatile as what was going on with the NASDAQ, a very different look for these. Um, they were, they were just really kind of out of sync, you know, because, you know, you got to remember that it wasn't until, uh, much later that the S and P 500 and the NASDAQ, you know, became dominated by the same big companies, you know, it, it really stuns me that, you know, when I, when I kind of started, you know, your biggest market cap leaders were like Exxon mobile, you know, and, and things like that. It was, uh, you know, Cisco was, was up there, but, um, you know, it was, it was a very different thing. So you had the extra volatility, you had a lot of this chop, but yet we still, when we came out of it in late nine 99, you had this phenomenal move. And if you look, there were plenty of people that were bearish and shorting all along the way here. And they got their heads handed to them because they were right in the long run. They were just early and being early here, uh, in terms of your bearishness, uh, can be very detrimental because not only do you miss out on the big move that is possible here, but you also, uh, put yourself in a position that maybe you're on the wrong side of things. And you know, this, this was a, this was a freight train running a lot of these [00:22:44] Alyssa Coram: folks over. Yeah. All right. Well, uh, a tricky market. And I think that's the other thing too, is what we're going to have to navigate is balancing the index level technical analysis with, all right, how, you know, how are the leaders acting underneath the surface? Right? Because I think if you, if you're just going by the indexes, you know, if you're getting this chop, you might miss underneath the surface, some of those leaders. [00:23:15] Justin Nielsen: So it's, it's, it's a big balancing, a big balancing act of indicators. You know, you want to be careful because it's very easy to have too many indicators and then they give you contradictory, uh, signals. Right. And that, that can just add confusion. It adds noise. And this is also the problem of having so much information at our fingertips sometimes that you get too much contradicting information. Um, but at the same time, you can't just use one, uh, indicator because one indicator is not enough. You know, it's different markets require different, um, different looks. So I think keeping, um, it's, it's almost like have as few indicators as you can get away with to give you a complete picture. And you named off a lot of the things. Yes. You want to look at the indexes and you want to look at what the market is doing, but you need to look at what your portfolio is doing. What are the leaders doing? What's showing relative strength? Um, and what are the past leaders doing and what are the ones that are showing relative strength right now doing as well? [00:24:15] Alyssa Coram: Good stuff. All right. So bringing it back to the current market and then we'll get to some individual names. It seems like Justin at this point, um, you know, thinking, thinking of your approach, the IBD approach, also Webby's approach, some sort of reversal, right? Like what would be looking, we would be looking for now is a reversal with a strong close, uh, perhaps for aggressive traders setting your stop at that low, or, you know, it depends on where it is, right? What you would be looking at as sort of a way to get your toe back in the water here. But really, you know, we want to see more evidence that the market is, uh, and the indexes are doing some of that repair work. So that way we feel like the wind is at our back and not in our face. Yeah, absolutely. And this is where, again, [00:25:07] Justin Nielsen: sometimes the headlines can steer you wrong. Um, we have certainly seen, uh, you know, in, in, in the very recent past, how if you were given the headline, you would be scared, you know, scared senseless, you know, investing in the market, but yet that was the right thing to do. Uh, so at the end of the day, we have to look at the charts. And so, yeah, I think being on the lookout for reversals as a way to get upside reversals specifically, where you see kind of an undercut of an area happen and then a close in the upper part of the range. And frankly, we've seen a few of these upside reversals along the way you have to have it, have to have a stop. Right. And, and they haven't held, you know, so yes, you have to know, okay, this is where I'm wrong. Um, if I start making progress and then I can't, you know, I keep on hitting my head and the progress stops, um, you know, I might have to take more defensive action. Um, you know, just because you get an upside reversal does not guarantee success. We saw that with your 2021 precedent, you know, you had a great reversal there and it just didn't last. It rolled over pretty quickly. So you have to have kind of that, uh, mindset of, yeah, I'm not going to put all my chips in right here, but dipping toes in the water, getting some exposure, seeing if you can get some traction is a pretty good way to go. And then of course, you know, at this point, I feel like we really kind of need, um, you know, need a follow through day. We haven't quite gotten the same, you know, downtrend as when Bill O'Neill, the founder of investors, business daily wrote how to make money in stocks and shared his, uh, concept of the follow through day as a market timing signal to get back in. Uh, you really had kind of more of a prolonged downtrend in a lot of those examples, but you know, we have had quite a bit of damage done in the NASDAQ more so than any of the other indexes. And so I think for the NASDAQ, at least, uh, it seems like we would need to have a follow through day where you, you have to start with a rally day and we don't have that, you know, with, with the last two days, we need to start with a rally day where we close up or at least in the upper part of the range. Um, and then on the fourth day or later where we see a powerful day, um, hopefully with volume coming in higher than the previous day. Um, and that that's not a guarantee of success, but at least says, Hey, this is a trend that might be changing, um, be on the lookout and see what's working. Exactly. And then we also have [00:27:28] Alyssa Coram: IBD senior market strategist, Mike Webster's trend change checklist. Uh, and one of the things that he looks for is a close above the 21 day couple of days with the low above that level and, uh, continuing to make progress there. So just that was the CliffsNotes version. He would take 30 minutes to tell us, but, uh, that was the, the, the sub 30 second version. And, and what's been tricky is that [00:27:54] Justin Nielsen: we keep on seeing the low get above the 21 day moving average line. It just isn't staying above. Yeah. Right. You need to have those days, the staying above it. That's what we're missing. Yeah. And that means that we're missing the trending part. Um, you know, so as much as we haven't completely fallen apart, um, we just can't trend and that makes it very hard to get traction in, in positions. Um, so if you're swing trading, uh, it can be very difficult because, you know, things, things aren't holding for more than a couple of days, uh, before they, before they roll over, uh, position trading. Sometimes if you've got a low cost, you can weather the storm through that. But if you're buying things more recently, uh, you're just, you're just getting shaken out. And look, that's, that's where I've been anything I've bought recently, I'm getting shaken out. And that, that, that tells me something that is exactly giving me feedback. [00:28:49] Alyssa Coram: 100%. Okay. Let's take a look at a couple of stocks and Apple look at this very different than the other magnificent seven names shares up three and a half percent on the day. It's been a pretty great month for Apple. Let's, uh, take a look at the monthly gain at 15% so far in the month of July. It's at all time highs here. And it seems like this, it has now turned into sort of the quote, unquote, uh, until earnings next week. We'll see, but for now, sort of the safer bet on AI, they've been more cautious, haven't, uh, poured as much, uh, capital spending into the AI build out, like the other hyper hyper scaler names. So seems like, uh, with a lot of the other tech names out of favor, if you want to still be in tech, it's, it seems like the money's rotating here, Justin. [00:29:49] Justin Nielsen: Yeah. And what was funny is that for a while there, it seemed like it was the non, it was non-participant, right? Um, Google alphabet was the one that was the, the must own, uh, for a while there, the one that was holding up the best. Um, and, and Apple just wasn't participating. So again, you have to be, uh, flexible and recognizing where the leadership is. And, you know, let's not forget, you know, July was a really good month for Apple. In fact, um, you know, at, at kind of that peak that we saw on July 17th, uh, Apple briefly overtook Nvidia as the number one, most valuable company in the world, um, you know, because chips were coming in and video was coming in and Apple was, uh, making new highs. Um, so it's, it's right on the cusp of doing that again after, after today's move. So, uh, we'll see if this can overtake and, uh, overtake the throne. Um, but yeah, it looks strong. Now the problem is, uh, as, as much as this is a decent look, uh, you got earnings coming up, you know, and that's the case for a lot of, uh, stocks next week. So, uh, July 30th, I believe after the close, uh, on this one, which is my son's birthday, he's going to be 12. Um, so yeah, he'll be getting to celebrate with, uh, Apple or, or maybe he'll be bummed. I don't know. Yeah. Well, hopefully there, [00:31:08] Alyssa Coram: there'll be one good, uh, earnings report, uh, on his birthday, but we'll, we'll see. We'll see what [00:31:14] Justin Nielsen: happens there. But, but look at that relative strength line. Um, and this was, this was a swing trade that we had on swing trader. I actually, uh, wrote my column on it this week. Um, but it came right down to, uh, the top of that base got support and it looks like it's bouncing there. So this looks like it could absolutely, uh, go higher. It's really been a different stock since it overtook that 50 day moving average line more recently. And again, had a great July where most stocks were having a [00:31:41] Alyssa Coram: very difficult time. Mm-hmm. Okay. Next on our list is ENVA. Perhaps what our friend Leif Serrata would call, uh, one of the randoms on the, on the move here. Uh, ENVA and the finance consumer loans group. Shares were up 9% today. So a high octane move for something that is kind of in the boring type category, [00:32:10] Justin Nielsen: Justin. Well, and you know, one of the things that kind of put this on our radar is you see those little black marks there. Uh, that's, that's our ants indicator. And when something has a good move and volume is behind it, and you can see if you just kind of match that, this had such a strong move in a short period of time. And there was a lot of volume coming into that. And that usually reeks of institutional involvement, right? You know, when, when institutions, uh, sometimes get hot and heavy on something, uh, it's very hard for them to hide their footprints. And so that's what the ants kind of tells you is that there's really some big movement, um, in the price and there's some volume behind it. Now, we don't like to use this as a buy indicator. This is actually a lot of times what we see is after these ants happen. Uh, you actually do go through some type of pause, some type of consolidation. And that's exactly what we've got here for ANOVA. Um, this is in the consumer loans. There's a lot of members of this group, um, in this area that seem to be getting some traction. And so on its earnings report here, um, we got a night and yeah, I'm glad you went to the weekly chart because it's such a nice kind of consolidation that we saw here. It had that strong move and really consolidated in a nice, tight way. And remember, you got to contrast this with what was going on with the indexes. You know, a lot of just sloppiness and choppiness, especially with the NASDAQ composite. Um, and so the fact that this was able to hold as well as it did, and now we've got the catalyst of earnings that kind of really launched this up in a, in a big way. Uh, this, I think, you know, again, it's a, it's a smaller company, um, only, you know, a 5 billion market cap, but this is certainly, I think one to watch. Uh, it's already had a lot of growth potential, a new CEO. You see that mark on our market search chart, uh, not too long ago. A lot of times that can be a catalyst. The earnings and, and revenue numbers here are, are very solid. Um, you can see, you know, going back for the last few quarters, uh, a high composite rating, high EPS rating, high RS rating. It's, it's got a lot of those IBD ratings, uh, really looking favorable. And now that we have earnings behind us, uh, that, that kind of takes, takes something out of the, uh, out of the risk factor there. So, um, certainly one I'm going to be watching a lot closer here myself. Okay. Let's [00:34:36] Alyssa Coram: also take a look at ticker CR. This is crane in the industrial space, very orderly action for this same, uh, mid the market chop. We'll go to the weekly chart here too. Yep. It looks like, is this four or five weeks tight? Yeah. Four weeks tight. Now moving out of that this week, shares up over three percent on Friday. So actionable in the industrial space, except, except, yes, [00:35:05] Justin Nielsen: uh, early next week, early next week. Yeah. Four days away. And we've got two of those days as a weekend. So, um, yeah, this is, this is a problem that we're seeing a lot out there, uh, because with so many earnings next week, uh, some of the setups that you're seeing, if, if your, if your company doesn't have earnings, maybe a competitor does a supplier or a vendor, and you got to remember all of those can have an effect on your stock as well. Just like what we saw with the alphabet earnings and the memory chips, you know, that was a positive one, but you can see negative reactions as well. So, as much as I like the move here and I like what's happening, I like how this got clear of a lot of this resistance and after holding tight and look, this was a stock that was holding above its 21 day moving average line. Whereas a lot of stocks were losing their 50 day moving average line. Um, it's, it's in a completely different, you know, kind of area that, you know, away from that tech space, a little bit more on the aerospace defense space industries. Um, so while it is general industrial, it's exposed to some of those areas that we have seen taking up the mantle, um, you know, from some of the AI trades. Uh, so I, I think it's a good look. I think it's an interesting, uh, company, but I'm going to wait for earnings. Um, but that could also be something you keep it on your eye, you know, you keep it on your watch list. Uh, you keep your eye on it. And a lot of times those earnings can be a catalyst, but I'm not going to try and anticipate and step up, step ahead of that. I'm going to, I'm going to wait and see what those earnings bring us. [00:36:37] Alyssa Coram: Makes sense, Justin. All right. Let's talk about the battle plan for the week ahead. You said it almost what? 200 if you're rounding S and P 500 companies reporting next week, it's going to be a busy week for earnings season. We have a mid east tensions to, to be thinking about upcoming fed stuff. So talk to us about how traders should be thinking about and preparing for the week [00:37:04] Justin Nielsen: ahead. Well, I think, you know, this is where for me, I kind of try and counsel myself patients, right? I don't want to be trying to jump the gun and anticipate what I think is going to happen because what I think just doesn't matter. And even to that, uh, to that end with a lot of these headlines, it's not the headline itself that I want to have a knee jerk reaction to. I want to really see what is the, what is the market reaction? What is the chart telling me? Um, where are those levels of support and resistance? Um, and a lot of times with as many headlines as we have, uh, our, our friend, Jason Shapiro, who has been on the podcast a number of times, he of course was one of the market wizards featured in Jack Schwager's, um, one of Jack Schwager's books. Uh, he refers to the news failure events. Sometimes what you can have is you can have a headline that comes out and the reaction, while it might go in a direction for a little while at, by the end of the day, the reaction is completely the opposite of what you would think. And that can be on either the positive or the negative side. Great example was, um, kind of at the lows of 2022, when the CPI report that came out at the highest effort, you know, in, in, in years, decades, uh, at 9%, you know, we, of course got slammed in the market to start the day, but finished way off the bottom. And that was, that was the bottom, you know, in, in 2022. So I think with as many headlines as we have, we really want to be aware of how the market is reacting to these headlines. And look, the fed, a lot of times there's some volatility between the time of the announcement, the press conference, the algos reacting, the reaction to the algos reacting and then the counter reaction, a digestion period. Exactly. There's going to be a lot of, or indigestion sometimes, um, there's going to be a lot of that. I think that we need to, you know, filter through, um, with the earnings again, patience, because sometimes your reaction in the, you know, in the aftermarket or in the pre-market can be very different from what the actual stock does during the trading day. So, um, I think again, a lot of patience has to be, uh, employed here, um, incremental decisions, incremental decisions. It doesn't have to be all or nothing. Um, a few things for people to check out, make sure that you're looking at the IBD action plan. There's a lot of those things. Hey, this is what's coming up. Make sure you're aware of these things. Um, Ken's got his earnings preview. It, it, it was a real big, if you're looking at the paper, just know we battled with this because Ken had so much in his article and we had so many stocks that we needed to, um, put in there. I, you know, I, I, I think I, I started with 60 and we had to whittle it down to 30 or something like that. And again, Wow. That was over on a big earnings week. Yeah. Yeah. So, uh, I, I think, I think we maybe settled at 50 or something like that, but, um, yeah, a lot to look at. The action plan is going to help you with that. The earnings preview column, earnings calendar. Earnings cheat sheet. The earnings cheat sheet. Yeah. From Lexi and, uh, add, you know, from, uh, on Fridays. Um, and of course, you know, we have our economic calendar available on investors.com. So again, a lot of things to just make sure you are aware of, uh, as you, as you go through and look, set the levels, you know, look at those levels, look at those areas of support that, you know, if, if we break those areas of support, what's the next area of support? Um, and what is it that you're going to be looking for in the charts, uh, to tell you, Hey, it's time to get going potentially. And what stocks are top of your list because you don't want to say, Hey, the indexes are giving me a signal. Now, let me go look for what I want to buy. You want to have those kinds of action ready. Uh, so you have the best, uh, the best merchandise, you know, already in your shopping bag. It's just a matter of, [00:40:50] Alyssa Coram: okay, this is what I'm going to start paying for right now. Yeah. And I think in terms of stocks that you do own in your portfolio, think about your cushion, right? You and I have talked, uh, a lot about what is the options market expecting? Do you, you have enough of a cushion to withstand the, you know, quote unquote, worst case scenario roughly, or one, 1.5 times the, the market maker move to the downside, something like that. And the other thing that I would think about, uh, we talked about this earlier this week. I'm not sure if it was with you, Justin, or on another SMT episode, but I think Google was a great example of don't count on one of these AI companies, whether you own them or not, or, or whatever company for that matter to save the day for the market. Right. And to lift everything. It, it could happen and we'll get more bullish if we do see those signals. But if you're sitting on stocks that you're down on heading into earnings, you know, you don't want to have that hold and hope mentality, um, trip you up in such a critical time like this. Hope is not an investing strategy, right? So very wise words there, Allie. All right. You too, Justin. Good stuff. We're done for the day. So we appreciate your take as always, Justin. Good stuff. Thank you. And thanks everyone for tuning in. That's it from us for today. We hope you have a great weekend. We'll see you Monday morning on IBD live starting 10 minutes before the opening bell investors.com slash IBD live for all the details. We'll see you there. And then we'll also see you back here Monday after the close.