Gold Crash or Golden Opportunity? Lobo Tiggre & Mario Innecco Debate

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Hey, everyone. This is Elijah K. Johnson with Liberty & Finance. And with us today, two guests, Lobo Tigre from the Independent Speculator and Mario Ineco from the very popular Mineco 64 YouTube channel, the home of alternative economics. Mario and Lobo, thank you so much for joining us today. [00:00:18] Speaker 2: Happy to be on the show. You're welcome. Yeah, I'm happy to be here, too. [00:00:23] Speaker 1: Well, it's great to have you guys. I wanted to discuss this washout we're seeing in precious metals. Now, Lobo, you've been talking for quite a while that you have sold your gold and silver stocks. And this washout is not really coming as a surprise to you. Can you explain kind of what you saw coming and where do you see us going from here? [00:00:47] Speaker 3: Well, the only thing people hate more than the voice of reason at a party when things are going vertical is one who says, I told you so afterwards. So I'm not sure that I'll make any friends answering your question. So a couple of things. One is, I must say, this is a first for me in 2008. You know, the thesis, the underlying thesis for why Goldwood, you know, should do well, even in a crisis. I understood that, but it was very painful. And I rolled the wave down in 2008. And then in 2011, you know, we had the GFC was not that far in the rear view mirror. All the arguments. It sounded a lot like today. Very convincing arguments for why Gold had to keep going straight on to 10,000 bucks an ounce or whatever it was. Though back then we thought that 5,000 would be the Nirvana. And then markets did otherwise. This time things went vertical and I said, you know what, I'm going to take some profits or I'm going to not just, you know, pill around with a little bit of profits. I'm going to, I'm going to book a win. And I got to tell you my feelings now on the downside are completely different from what they were in 2008 or 2011, 12, 13, 14, 15, right? The equanimity one feels of having realized gains, not paper gains, but realized gains. It's, I mean, it, it, this is, this is not rocket science, but I, I just want to stress this, not in the, I told you so sense, but in the, like folks, the goal here is to make money. And if you've made money on one bet and you're willing to wait for the next opportunity to buy low again, it works out really well. And this, you know, this, this, this stress levels are so much better. So, um, the takeaway is when, when the party is on prices are going vertical and everybody's saying, yes, it has to just go straight to the moon. You know, beware of the Kool-Aid. Um, you're not a bear if you decide to go ahead and book some wins and it makes all the difference right now. You know, I could be buying those very same stocks I sold, right? At much lower levels and, and, you know, washroom is repeating and keep going upwards. So I'm a long-term bull. Nothing has changed. The, the reality of having books and profits, um, it's not about, I told you so it's about having the money to take advantage of the next opportunity to buy low, which might be soon in our favorite metals, or maybe it'll be something else. We'll see. [00:03:23] Speaker 1: Mario, I wanted to ask you about the current, uh, washout we're seeing in metals with gold, you know, falling below a 4,000 for a little bit here, uh, silver below $60. I know there's a different perspective, even local, you have on, uh, physical precious metals as savings. And I think Mario, you really bring this perspective to your channel, looking at gold and silver as real money in these times, as we're seeing, uh, the prices fall in dollar terms. What is your perspective and what is your outlook, uh, for metals going forward here? [00:03:59] Speaker 2: Yeah. Like Lobo, I, I'm bullish longer term, mainly because the debt situation hasn't changed. And the only way they can keep, uh, the system going is through more inflation and by inflation, I mean, uh, increasing the money and credit in the system. But, uh, uh, I, uh, I, uh, I don't really provide a, uh, a service, a trading service like Lobo. So what I've done for myself and I tell my viewers that I do is that I hold, let's say a hundred dollars, uh, in the precious metal space. But 90 of those is physical and 10 is the mining sector because I know the mining sector is very volatile. Uh, so, uh, I took profit maybe on one or two stocks last year because they did really well, even before the run-up, but I'm still holding, uh, my mining stocks. I didn't take profit like, uh, Lobo, uh, and I'm adding on to it because I, I think they're still heavily undervalued. Not just, uh, versus the general stock market, but even, uh, versus Boolean. And in terms of, uh, the price action that we've seen, uh, I, I go back to like, uh, November, December, 2024, uh, that's when gold broke through 2,700. And the reason I have 2,700 is because if you take the high from 1980 and the high from 2011, there's a trend line there in the, uh, logarithmic chart, uh, that came. Right at that level and we broke that after the election, it came back down and then it just flew. Uh, so, and the same thing happened to silver about a year later, like, uh, up until November last year, silver is still below 50. So I, I think, uh, that explosion through those two levels, uh, they in silver, it was from 1980 to 2011 is a huge resistance. So I, I think we're in a new paradigm and it's almost like, uh, a ship, a rocket going into space from the, uh, from, from the earth's atmosphere and it's getting really turbulent up there. So, uh, I think we're going to see, uh, huge moves going forward, maybe in two, three years time, uh, we could be talking, uh, yeah, we're going to have an even bigger correction, but it will be at a much higher level. And, uh, people who can't handle that, they shouldn't be in the precious metals. That's the way I see it. [00:06:34] Speaker 1: I think a lot of our viewers obviously have been experiencing volatility. It's crazy to think that there's, it's such weak, a sentiment right now. People are very depressed about golden or golden silver prices are because of what they've done in the last six months. But it's, it's crazy to think just this time last year, gold and silver were significantly lower than they are today. Um, I wanted to turn to Lobo here. Mario had mentioned inflation, and I think this is something that is, uh, a huge concern in the mainstream as well. And with the new fed chairman Warsh, you know, kind of flirting with higher thinking of having higher interest rates in the future. Um, this is actually ironically, uh, pushing precious metals lower. So if we, uh, what is your expectation for inflation going forward, especially considering everything, uh, having to do with Iran and oil? Uh, that we've seen recently, and how is that going to be impacting precious metals in your view? [00:07:35] Speaker 3: Okay. I, I first want to second something that Mario said, you know, I, I see bullion and the stocks as very different things. You know, and I, when I took profits, when I realized gains, that was on my speculations on the stocks. My bullying isn't a speculation at all. I don't even see it as an investment. That is savings. I, I only dip into it in time of either great need or a great opportunity. Like I'm going to buy a house or something or the sort of things that you would dip into other savings for. So, so don't get me wrong there. Um, and I know you wouldn't go in the inflation direction, but just segueing on what Mario said and what you just said to the, the sentiment and it's, it's really striking. You know, if, if you, if you price gold stocks in gold, which is actually relevant, not only because it's real money, but because it's what they produce. And it is a rational consideration to look at them compared to what they produce. They're actually quite cheap. And even in the world nominal world, you know, these mines were built at sub $2,000 gold or in silver, you know, sub $20 silver, many of the producing mines. And so, you know, even though the prices have crashed, right. You know, they're, they've crashed to levels that are a higher than a year ago and B levels that the companies are just printing money. Literally they're, they're pulling it out of the ground. They are making money in a Kiyosakian sense. Um, so I, I absolutely get the, the value proposition there. And I don't want anybody to take that the wrong way. It's simply a matter of discipline, buy low, sell high, and I sold high and I'm looking for my next opportunity to buy low. Now, this takes us to your, your point though. It's kind of interesting. The markets are completely have done a 180. They've gone from pricing and rate cuts to rate hikes. And they are now everybody's talking about this new hawkish fed that we have. And everybody's so surprised because this was going to be Trump's yes, man. And he was going to cut rates no matter, you know, how much they needed to be hiked instead and so on. And it, it strikes me like how, you know, this isn't just like children in a playground. This is adult supposed financial professionals for saying all this stuff. And, and I wonder, well, how do you know that the fed's going to do this or why are you willing to risk millions or billions of dollars betting on the fed doing this, that, or the other? And right now the answer is just, well, Warsh said so. And I'm thinking, of course, what else could he possibly say? He's going to go on his first fed meeting and say, yeah, I'm Trump's yes, man. Of course not. He's going to sound tough that he had to. Now, I'm not saying that I know what he's going to do any more than anybody else. I'm saying it's a mistake for anybody to say they know what he's going to do. And just because his lips moved, that doesn't prove anything. So here's the opportunity. The takeaway from this, bear in mind, I'm a due diligence guy. I get paid to kick rocks. I don't know what the fed's going to do, but it strikes me that when markets price something in advance that just may not be so, there is opportunity. And right now, this narrative that the hawkish fed and we're going to hike rates, you know, we've seen this movie before, the anticipation of right hikes is always bad for gold. Whether the right hikes are bad for gold or not, usually not so much. It's the dog's bark more than the bite. So that anticipation has, in my career, has always been very bad for gold. And that's what's in play right now. What if that's wrong? Right? So I see potential opportunity here. You know, the bad news is we've got five more weeks before the next fed meeting. And Morsh has already said he doesn't want to do much forward guidance. And I suspect that's probably something that we can rely on. It's going to keep pretty mum and maybe, you know, hope things change for the better for him, but when the rock and the hard place that he's in. Um, but if not, what I'm saying is if the market is making a mistake, if, if my fellow gold bugs and I are right about real money, the market's making a mistake. Then the persistence of that mistake is likely to put our favorite metals on sale even more. And if they're wrong and we're right, that's an opportunity. Now, I, I, I'm not going to be able to time a bottom or something. And maybe Mario with his technical indicators can do a better job than me at that. But what I'm saying is the setup here is actually looking pretty interesting. And I'm, I'm very pleased to be going into a setup like that, where I think the market is making a mistake with cash in hand to deploy. Should I be right? And should the opportunities present themselves? [00:12:12] Speaker 1: I think a lot of people in this space have been talking about, talking that way for quite a while and it's a really good strategy is, well, what assets are the markets repricing? Your take on that, Mario, is, do you think this fear of, uh, Warsh being a hawk, right? Uh, is kind of overblown and the markets are overreacting right now. [00:12:34] Speaker 2: Yeah, I, I think so. Uh, I think he spoke about, uh, reigning in the balance sheet. I, that was like a, an interview he did, uh, a year or so ago. I don't know when it was. Uh, and, uh, I also heard, uh, but, but, but sent yesterday, it's secretary of the treasury saying, oh, Warsh has done a great job, even though he's just, uh, joined the fed and he, uh, and the fed still doing QE. He didn't raise rates in his first meeting and, uh, the argument for, uh, higher yields, uh, hurting, uh, gold and the precious metal sector. Uh, I think that probably was true back, uh, during the great moderation when, when bonds were in the bull market, let's say from 2002 to 2021. Uh, but if you look back in the seventies, uh, we started the decade with a 10 year yield, I think around four and a half, 5% and gold was $35 an ounce. And by the end of the decade, uh, goal, uh, the 10 year yield was in double digits and gold had gone up to almost 900. And even, uh, more recently when the 10 year yield broke through one, one and a half percent, I think it was, uh, late 2022 gold was, uh, making, uh, the, the, a low at 1650 or 1630. And here we are with the 10 year yield at four and a half and gold is at 4,000. So, uh, and I also think, uh, the inflation numbers that we get like CPI and PCE, they're heavily doctored. So I think that the basement of the currency is much bigger, uh, than, uh, yeah, U S treasury, like they call it the breakeven rate and, uh, the real yields. So, uh, I think, uh, yeah, that's what I'm betting on that, uh, they're not going to reign in inflation. You look at M two and the feds, uh, balance sheet, they're still rising and they can't. And yesterday, president Trump said, uh, we had a numbskull at the fed and he didn't want to cut rates. And he said, the most important things thing right now is to cut rates. And, uh, I think he's wrong because if they cut rates too aggressively, uh, the fed funds rate, which is a short term rate, it's going to make the longer term rates go up even more, the longer term yields. And that's going to hurt mortgage rates. So that's how I see it. But like, uh, low boutique global said, um, markets can remain irrational for quite a while. And, um, yeah, we just have to sit through it. And, uh, if you, uh, if you do have cash like global has, then you're in a good position. Uh, um, maybe I don't have as much cash, uh, like, uh, percentage wise as logo. But for example, yesterday, uh, uh, when I saw gold go below, below 4,000, I bought a little bit of physical gold, not, not the miners, but, uh, so, and I, I did the same back in, uh, March. When gold dropped like $400 in the day. So I, I think for the viewers, I'm not giving advice, but I think when things feel really bad and your stomach hurts that that's the time to buy when, when, when things are really great, maybe that's a time to take some profit in the miners like, uh, Lobo did. [00:16:13] Speaker 1: And turning to Lobo now, you mentioned the market mispricing, um, the, the, you know, are miscalculating that the fed is going to hike rates, uh, later this year. One thing that a lot of people are saying that the market is mispricing right now is oil. Um, and people are saying we're not really, we're really not out of the woods. There are, um, delayed consequences of the Strait of Hormuz being closed for so long. Do you anticipate that we could see further oil shocks from here, um, and further inflation due to that? [00:16:50] Speaker 3: Yeah. That is in fact, my, my plan A right now, the most clear and imminent opportunity I see is in the oil patch. Um, you know, I, I, I can't time the market, but as it seemed pretty obvious that as the Strait started reopening, I don't, I don't know if normalize is even a word we can use because it seems like the local powers that be are going to want to impose some kind of toll or, or, or security, you know, fee or assistance in navigation fee or something like that for going through the Strait. I don't know if we ever go back to normal the way it was. Um, and clearly the neighbors there are scrambling to address that bottleneck with more pipelines and other ways around it. So, you know, who knows, but anyway, the Strait is reopening as we speak this morning. The last time I looked at the tracker, um, volume was back up to 40% of normal. And that's the ones where the transponders are on, you know, who knows how many more are with the transponders off. So that's a significant, um, level of reopening, not back to normal, of course, but it's going in that direction. And we had oil sub 70, you know, from having been in triple digits to sub 70, as we moved in this direction, that seemed to me pretty predictable. What seems pretty common though, is that the market over reacts, right? Oh, the straight's opening. Ooh. And the oil could go down below 60. It could, you know, flirt with the fifties even. Um, whereas the reality, as you're, you know, bringing up in your question, Elijah, you know, the reality is all kinds of stuff's blown up. It's going to take a while. Nevermind the mines and demining the straight, even just the, the, the hard infrastructure and the shut in. Well, some of them are easy to get going against. Some of them suffer damage. I mean, there's, there's a lot to be worked through here and don't forget that the strategic political reserves need to be refilled as well. So there's, there's a billion barrels that came out of nowhere that needs to go back to nowhere. Right. Uh, because I mean, think of it this way, who around the world, the big oil consumer wants to trust that the United States, Iran, and Israel will not go at it again, anytime soon. Who, who wants to place that bet, you know, rich risk your economy on that bet. I don't think anybody. So, so don't underestimate the appetite of heavy oil importers for refilling their stocks to have that insurance in case things go boom again. So long-winded answer. Let me try to make it pithy here because we're going to share the screen with our friend Mario here. But what I'm saying is it's started. It's not there yet. I haven't started buying oil stocks yet. A few of them are back to pre-war levels, but I can't really say they're like compelling, super cheap yet. And remember many of the things sort of ramped up before the war because, because Trump was rattling that saber really loud after Venezuela. So, um, the markets have corrected as the straight has opened, but they haven't really overcorrected yet. That's the opportunity I'm looking for. I don't just want to buy lower than recent highs. I want to buy low. Um, and so right now I think that's plan eight, if it doesn't happen, you know, things get blow up again, then I think it might put other things on sale like copper, for example, but that's, that's my immediate priority. I've got a shopping list of oil stocks that I would be happy to buy at the right price. And I'm, I'm watching with great interest because this could happen this week. Well, actually it's Thursday now, but it could happen within the next week or two. If things continue opening up and, and Mr. Market decides, Oh, everything's hunky dory again. I mean, Bloomberg started at Bloomberg ran a headline this morning about a flood of oil coming back to the market. Now that the straight is reopened. I mean, who writes this stuff? I don't know, but it's, it's the sort of thing that can create the buying opportunity that I'm looking for. [00:20:45] Speaker 1: Your perspective on this, uh, Mario, I know you've talked about before how kind of the economic conditions or the financial conditions that countries find themselves in can also, I can often lead them, uh, to war, you know, all, all wars are bankers wars is, is the saying. And I guess in the situation that we find ourselves in right now, are you, um, are you convinced that these conflict, this conflict with Iran is over? Um, or do you think it's likely that things could [00:21:15] Speaker 2: escalate again pretty quickly? Yeah. I don't think it's over by any stretch, uh, of the imagination. I, I think the Israelis are, are still, uh, pretty, uh, trigger happy vis-a-vis like, uh, Hezbollah and Lebanon, and that could scupper things. And as for oil, I think, uh, Lobo just mentioned a Bloomberg article. Uh, and I think there's a lot of wishful thinking. Uh, I I've seen, uh, analysis like from our friend, David Jensen. Uh, he, he thinks things aren't as great. And we, for four months, the, uh, supply of oil has been disrupted. We're like, the war started February 28th. It's, uh, June 25th today. And I think it's going to take a lot longer for things to normalize. Uh, the oil tankers, they, they travel with 10 knots, 12 knots per, you know, that's not very fast, uh, 10, 12 knots. So it takes months. It takes like 40 days, I think, to go from the Gulf to, uh, South to East Asia. So I, I think there, there was also talk the, uh, last week that the, uh, the inventories or the supplies in, uh, Cushing, Oklahoma, where they keep the, uh, oil for the, uh, WTI contract that was getting empty. Uh, and, uh, I'm not sure it's going to be replenished, uh, uh, soon enough. Uh, I mean, uh, oil is not something I follow closely, but yeah, I, I think, uh, President Trump and the mainstream, they seem like, uh, determined to push this narrative that everything's going to be fine. But, uh, I actually think like the, the countries in the Gulf as well, they've stopped probably pumping a lot of oil because there's no place to ship it. So like, uh, logo said, it takes time to get everything going again. And in some instances, there is a lot of damage from bombing from, from Iran. So, uh, my view though, differs in terms of the inflation. I don't think the, uh, oil price is the cause of inflation. Yes, it might raise prices of oil, but if you look at the, the last 10, 20 years, the price of oil, like, uh, Brent is, uh, traded between like 40 and $80. And we're pretty much within that same range. And yet we've had massive, uh, debasement, uh, of all fiat currencies. So yeah, short term, it might affect inflation, but I, I think, uh, uh, politicians and a lot of mainstream economies, they're jumping at this drop in, uh, oil to say, look, the inflation problem is gone because they want the central banks to start cutting again. And I think that's really bullish still for metals and all other hard assets. Uh, yeah, that's the way I see it. And in terms of, yeah, the, the war isn't over. And I think, um, there's also the, uh, Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine war. That's something that's starting to heat up. And I think president Trump is starting to, uh, back, uh, Zelensky a lot more. If you remember, well, last year when Zelensky went to the white house, they kind of humiliated him. They had like that, uh, him and JD Vance ganged up on Zelensky. Not that I liked the guy, but now I heard that Trump, uh, like praised Zelensky for bombing, uh, some heavily bombing like Moscow and, uh, some of, uh, the infrastructure there. So yeah, it's not just, uh, Iran and, and Israel anymore. I think we need to unfortunately, uh, keep an eye on, uh, on Europe as well. And because I think the Russians, uh, president Putin has been very, uh, controlled and patient, but that might, that patient might, might be, uh, uh, wearing thin right now. [00:25:27] Speaker 1: Now, when it comes to the precious metal markets, if we could kind of close that segment here, um, a lot of people, and I guess oil is in this as well, where a lot of people really, since the Iran war, um, it's been a whiplashing market, right? And back and forth with, oh, there's a deal. No, there's not a deal. And I think a lot of people want something to hold on to, right? Uh, some sort of certainty, which we can never have really in markets, but I wanted to ask you, Lobo, it seems like you have, uh, maybe your base case is that obviously metals higher in the long term, but for the short term, um, we could kind of stall here and then head higher. You also do see the possibility of this being sort of like 2011 or 1980, where we see a significant pullback in metals more than even what we've seen right now. So what are you looking at right now to confirm either way that, you know, we have hit the bottom and this is the time to buy, or we are headed much lower? [00:26:35] Speaker 3: Well, uh, I'm not a chartist, but it is, it's been very impressed on me that if you superimpose the, if you treat January of this year, like a peak in oil, in gold, and you compare it to 2011, it looks very similar from the shape of the ramp up and the, and the dead count bounce afterwards. And then the second bounce and then the continuing downwards, it's scarily similar. Uh, it 1980 is a little bit different, but roughly similar. All three of them echo in, in alarming ways. Now I'm not saying that proves therefore that this is an interim peak and we're going into a bear market, but I do think it's a mistake for gold bulls to just dismiss that and say it's impossible. You know, they did that in 2011 at, at great risk. So what the question is, what am I looking for? I would like to see a divergence in those charts. Like the, the other idea and what had been my base case actually going into this, my base case has never been calling January a peak and saying, we're going into a bear market. My base case has been a period of correction and consolidation. And then I think the next big move was actually higher because of the reasons that I'm sure Mario would agree with, you know, the central bank, you know, participation in the money debasement, all that stuff going on. I think everybody in the audience probably is on the same page there. Like all those fundamental reasons haven't gone away. So my view has been that it's likely to be sort of like, you know, when gold hit 3000 and it consolidated for a while or, or even more in 2020, when it hit 2000 and consolidated for three years before the next big breakout higher. That's been what I've been expecting ever since that correction from the vertical peak over 5,500. Um, but the longer it looks like 2011, the more I have to say it, it behooves us to be cautious about, you know, saying, no, no, it's got to recover anytime soon. So that's what I would look for. I would look for a divergence in those charts. As long as gold continues, you know, fluctuating downwards, the more that elevates the risk of a, you know, a mid seventies style correction or a post 2011 style correction, which by the way was, is roughly around 50% down and we're halfway there. Right. So if we did get to a 50% drawdown, then at that point, I don't, I wouldn't even care about the charts. I, you know, to me, that would be oversold. That would be a no brainer. And by the way, so 50% down is high two thousands. It's sub $3,000 gold. If, if we were so lucky as buyers who are cashed up to see sub $3,000 gold, I would, I would be deploying with, you know, both hands or, or all four paws as the case may be for a wolf. You know, I'd have a garage sale. I'd sell some blood. I mean, to me that would be like gold at 700 in 2008, just, just a no brainer of a buying opportunity. Since I'm, since I'm cash rich right now, I could say that, you know, I would look forward to that for, for all our long suffering gold bugs who are still massively long. I can't say that I wish for them to suffer that fate. I'm just saying I'm prepared either way, but actually my base cases is not that that's likely to happen. And so my answer is I'm looking for a divergence in those charts. I'm looking for some recovery here. I would like to see gold show strength between four and 5,000. Even if that does that for a year or two, that would give me confidence that the next big move really will be higher. But if it keeps breaking down here, as we go forward, it starts looking more like a, an interim peak, like the last ones. [00:30:17] Speaker 1: Speaker 1: Now, Mario, your take on this, I would assume that your, your perspective is probably, we're not going to see a situation like we did in 2011. And I know for both logo and Mario, it seems like it's probably, isn't going to be, you're pretty certain that it's not going to be exactly like 2011 because we saw, you know, like a 10 year timeframe before we got into new all-time highs. But Mario, your perspective on that, what do you anticipate here and what is giving you confidence that we probably won't fall significantly lower from here? [00:30:53] Speaker 2: Speaker 1: Well, I guess there's, uh, two things like back in 1974, late 74, gold got up to around 200. And then like a logo said, it corrected down to like 103 in 1975. And then from 1975 to 1980, it went up eightfold, uh, 2011, we corrected from 1920 down to 1045, uh, in 2015. But like you said, it took 11 years or 12 years for us to, uh, definitively break back, uh, above 1900 and 2000. And, uh, what I'm trying to say here is that this top in January now, yeah, we could go lower, uh, in terms of percentage, we could go, uh, I'm not sure 50%, but what I think, uh, maybe, uh, Lobo, uh, agrees with me. I don't know if he means that 2011 is going to, we're going to be like 2011 in terms of correction, but I don't think we're going to see another 10, 11 years, uh, of the market to wait for the market to go back above five and a half or five. I do agree. Things are happening faster. Yeah, I think so. That's, so that's the way I see it. It's more like 1975, right? So that's the way I see it. Uh, yeah. And, uh, looking at that trend line I spoke about earlier from 1980 to 2011, we're probably now like just above 3000. So is it possible we go down to three and a half thousand? Yes. Uh, we'll have to wait and see, but I, I think, uh, like 1980, it took, uh, like 20 years for the market to go back up, start going back up in 2000. And then 2011, it took 11 years. I think, like Lobo said, and like, I think it's not going to take that long for it to go back up. Maybe, uh, you don't even know. It could be, uh, later this year or next year. So that's, that's how I see it. [00:33:09] Speaker 1: Lobo and Mario, did you have any last thoughts on gold and silver? I did want to touch on, uh, copper and uranium, but just want to put a pin in here. Uh, if you guys had any last thoughts on, on, uh, precious metals though. [00:33:23] Speaker 3: I'll just jump in and remind everybody that, you know, a bullion is not a speculation or even investment. I really see it as savings or, or an insurance fund, if you will. I have literally used bullion in that way in my life, like financial meltdown that, that last resort of liquidity. I have used that and I've also used it in the other sense of positive sense of a, of a once in a lifetime buying opportunity. Um, so, you know, don't get distracted by talk about, you know, what the market might do and what interest rates might do and all this stuff in terms of, you know, my speculations as a stock speculator, that's a completely different thing, you know, from, from my stacks. And, you know, like Mario says, it goes on sale. There's a big drawdown. That's a good day to add to my stacks. [00:34:12] Speaker 1: Fantastic. And I did want to touch on before that you guys go, uh, copper and uranium and any other, uh, assets that you guys find are especially, um, I guess, as you would put it low, uh, your high conviction trades at the moment. I know copper has had quite a run and we're seeing a little bit of a pullback here. Uranium, same thing, a little bit of a pullback. Uh, what is your take on those commodities? And is there anything else in particular you're looking quite, uh, uh, interested in at the [00:34:39] Speaker 3: moment? Those two are enough, uh, very quickly. And then hand it over to Mario. Just, uh, you know, the, the energy story going forward, I think is very strong, even without AI hype, even without EV hype, just progress demographics, very bullish. The world wants to electrify anyway, and you have to have copper for that. And if nothing else is clear as a takeaway from this latest war in the Middle East, uh, the need for nuclear power, which really can give energy independence for countries that don't have a lot of oil or, or even coal or even rivers, right? You could, you can store years of energy in one warehouse in terms of uranium. It's that energy dense. So I like both of these a whole lot. Copper is not especially cheap right now. My, my hope is my plan a was to buy oil as the war ended. And then plan B was if the war didn't end, that would be bad for copper. And maybe you'd be able to add more copper to my portfolio. Um, but I think it would take a Chernobyl scale event to derail the uranium thesis at this point. I'm not even sure about that because the writing on the wall there is so clear. Um, it's not dirt cheap, but it's not at all time highs or near all time highs the way copper is. So I like the uranium story right now. If, if, if I had to do one thing this week, you know, had to deploy some cash this week, I would probably buy more uranium. Obviously not the metal. You don't want to [00:36:09] Speaker 1: stack that, but the stocks. Mario, any thoughts on other assets that you're looking at right now? [00:36:18] Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. Uh, one that I really, uh, wasn't too involved in, but have become more involved this year is tungsten. Tungsten, uh, is a really interesting metal. It's got basically the same density as gold, uh, but it's, uh, controlled based, uh, by China, uh, Russia and North Korea. They control 90% of the market. And now with, uh, all the, uh, yeah, all, all the, uh, countries like, uh, the U S and China, uh, coming up with critical minerals, uh, list and, uh, globalization breaking up. Uh, yeah. Tungsten is something that, uh, I think is going to be tough for the price to correct that much because it's not, uh, um, uh, a market heavily traded by the bankers. There's no futures market. So it's a real physical market. And there are some interesting companies that I've been involved in the tungsten market and very few producers, uh, that are actually producing in the West. So I, I think that that's, uh, a real opportunity tongues and tungsten, and as for gold, uh, like, uh, Lobo said, gold is insurance. And also if you look at gold and silver since 1971, they've averaged about 10 to 11%, uh, average, uh, return, uh, per annum since night, since Nixon closed the gold window. So that's what I would tell people. It's a long-term insurance versus currency debasement and yeah, and central banks. [00:38:01] Speaker 1: Well, Mario and Lobo, it's been a pleasure speaking to you both getting your diverse perspectives on the metals markets and also, uh, these other commodities and what's going on in this crazy world. If our viewers are interested in learning more, uh, Lobo, it is independencepeculator.com and Mario Maneco 64 on YouTube. I guess first, uh, Lobo, do you want to share a bit about the services you provide there? [00:38:26] Speaker 3: A simple pitch. We have a free weekly digest that covers the macro. And I guess that says what I think about the value of macro, but for what it's worth, if you like this conversation, there's more available for free. You may or may not agree with me, but I can promise that we won't spam you. You get one email notification per week and that's it. And then, you know, see what you think [00:38:45] Speaker 1: from there. Mario and, uh, you are the founder of the home of alternative economics. What will people [00:38:52] Speaker 2: find there? Well, uh, I post, uh, content. Yeah. Every day. And the reason I do that is because when I started the 11 years ago, that's what I, I started doing and you just have to keep, uh, consistency. And, uh, I also have been interviewing a lot of different people, uh, over the last few years. So yeah. And, uh, you can find me at Monaco 64 on YouTube and, uh, I'm not trying to brag, but we've just gone over 60 million views, which was a pretty good milestone. I'd say. Congrats. [00:39:29] Speaker 1: Fantastic. Yeah. Congrats, Mario. Thank you guys for joining us today. We'll put links in the descriptions to both of your sites there. Really appreciate your time. You have a good day and God God bless. [00:39:42] Speaker 3: Thank you. [00:39:43] Speaker 1: Thank you.