'GCC has no appetite for warfare,' analyst warns as Iran’s Hormuz power play threatens trade

[0:00] now qatar's prime minister mohammed bin abdul rahman al-tani has urged tehran to get back to [0:05] the negotiating table during a call with iran's foreign minister a spokesman for qatar's foreign [0:10] ministry has called for the u.s and iran to reach a solution to open the strait of hormuz [0:15] what is happening right now is certainly not conducive of ending the the blockade of the [0:23] state of fomuz but we have always said that there needs to be a sustainable solution [0:27] that guarantees that no part party is able or willing to to block movement through the the [0:33] state when it comes to the call between his excellency the prime minister and the iranian [0:39] forum minister the in the call we reiterated our position in condemning any attacks on the [0:43] sovereignty of qatar or any neighboring country we irritated our support for the ceasefire and we [0:50] urged the iranian side to engage fully in in the talks as we have said of of of the u.s [0:57] sheikh al-anud hamad al-tani is a political analyst and a fellow at the middle east council for global [1:03] affairs she's with me here in the studio in doha a very very warm welcome to you so we've just heard [1:07] that request uh from the category foreign ministry for all sides to get back to the negotiating table [1:13] as we approach that april the 21st expiration on this current truce what levers do you think gcc [1:19] nations diplomatically are going to be pulling behind the scenes right now so i think the the primary [1:26] lever that the gcc countries are going to be pulling is to try to bring this war to some kind [1:31] of acceptable terms and to an end that's the primary thing because again the gcc as a whole doesn't [1:38] really have an appetite for warfare for bloodshed we're not really involved in in active combat [1:46] we're very economic nations and so that's going to be the primary concern of the gcc states however [1:55] the variables that we're seeing doesn't doesn't make it appear to be that a ceasefire is anywhere [2:03] near yeah let's talk about some of those variables because i wonder what it means for [2:07] the gcc countries qatar included to see the united states the the long-time guarantor of regional [2:15] security now be the party behind this major naval escalation in the strait of humus i think we need [2:23] to make a distinction here because for the gcc countries at least the ones who only overlook uh the [2:30] arabian uh the arabian sea uh as opposed to the to saudi arabia who has access on both sides [2:37] we were already blockaded so to so to say you know our ships weren't able to leave or enter uh through [2:44] the strait and we're constantly under threat of missiles or drones and so this new development has [2:49] little effect on uh the movement of gcc gcc ships uh as a whole uh the only major tactical development [2:58] here is now iranian ships as well cannot leave or enter uh freely of course it's an escalatory measure [3:05] uh but as a just an on the ground you know paper and pen uh development it's it doesn't really affect [3:11] the gcc that much well on the matter of escalatory measures we've seen the united states say look if [3:16] there's no let up in the strait of humus we may well take our escalation back once more inland in iran [3:22] the iranians have once again threatened uh asymmetric retaliation they're saying that the that no port in the [3:28] region is safe i mean with with rhetoric like that once again coming from iran threatening regional [3:34] energy water security is there any consensus within the gcc when it comes to how they might [3:41] respond to this especially when it comes to a collective sense of defense so uh just a minor [3:47] correction what what iran said is that no port uh in the gulf is going to be safe we heard no mention [3:53] or of threatening for example ports in israel which seems to be off the table at the moment [3:59] even with the massacres going on in lebanon and the increase in the fighting with hezbollah there has [4:05] been no iranian retaliation or response against israel and all of their retaliation has been directed [4:11] towards uh the gcc and so i think for the moment the gcc is taking a wait-and-see approach there's clearly a [4:18] lot of chaos there's clearly a quagmire and there's not really much to gain or to lose for the gcc in [4:24] this war uh for so for the moment i think they're just going to wait and see especially since their [4:29] defenses are holding up pretty well and iran is already engaged in in a battle so there's little [4:36] that can be added by just more people entering into that battle at the moment right understood i mean [4:41] at the same time in iran we're seeing iran's parliament moved to fast track permanently locking [4:48] in whatever status quo they've established their control of their portion of of the strait of [4:53] humus i mean how how should we read this it's just the gcc risk a legal precedent if this doesn't [5:00] become resolved soon where the strait of humus is no longer governed by international law but by one [5:06] regional actor iran so i mean the iranian parliament can say what they like and we've also heard you [5:13] know attempts at legal justifications which don't hold up when you actually read the articles that they're [5:18] talking about we've heard attempts to justify it politically by saying well there's no international [5:23] law anymore therefore we can break international law as well that doesn't really hold up maritime law [5:29] around the world is being held up very well all the other straits in the world are having movement [5:33] to go through them normally we heard from the foreign minister of singapore recently that even all the [5:39] way over there this status quo is simply not acceptable because if you set this precedent then [5:47] all the other straits are now also under threat and you will have a a a complete stop a complete stall [5:54] in in world trade and free movement today may be in in ships tomorrow may be in airplanes what if that [6:01] status quo involves uh some sort of agreement between oman a gcc member and iran we know that they [6:08] according to the iranians at least uh have been having negotiations uh with oman over the possibility of [6:14] setting up something resembling a maritime protocol for that strait would it make a difference if two [6:20] regional powers got together and said look we can make this work we don't need the americans here [6:25] so here's the thing first of all we heard unequivocally from oman a complete rejection of this notion to [6:30] begin with um and it's it's highly unlikely that oman would try to take this step i mean this is an [6:36] unprecedented step and a lot of people are calling it akin to privacy so it for oman who is a very you know [6:42] peace-loving a very middle ground nation uh and a nation that grounds others it's highly unlikely [6:48] that oman will will participate in such a matter especially since oman is one of the countries [6:54] that was struck with drones and missiles by iran recently uh and who had their side of the strait [7:00] filled with mines uh by the way this is just a precedent that we're getting used to right now [7:05] which is a lot iran's ability to engage in the region is based on the good will of others rather than [7:11] their own good behavior so you think it would be counterintuitive for oman to do that very clearly [7:16] sheikh al-anid hamed al-thani a political analyst fellow the middle east council for global affairs [7:20] pleasure having you thank you thank you for having me