Fleeing climate change — the real environmental disaster — DW Documentary

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: The world has changed, weather is getting more extreme. [00:00:30] Speaker 2: The day we are struggling when we are talking about people on the move in the millions, then we are talking about people in the billions. [00:00:57] Speaker 3: Drought, floods, hurricanes, vast areas are being devastated by environmental catastrophe. How many people will be forced to leave their homes by the mid-century, not due to conflict and war, but due to climate change? We appear to be on the path to a troubling future. [00:01:20] Speaker ?: From the Sahel region to Southeast Asia, from the Pacific to the Caribbean, some people [00:01:28] Speaker 4: are fleeing rising waters. [00:01:43] Speaker 3: Others, drought. The world's population began to soar about 200 years ago. Soon, it will top 10 billion. We are rising apace. The resulting warming of the Earth's atmosphere is wreaking havoc on the climate. Humankind, which is responsible for this warming, is becoming its victim. More and more people are forced to leave their homes. Humanity is being exacerbated by climate change. Wealthy, industrialized nations are polluting our air, while the main victims live in the global south. For example, in Indonesia. Hantai Bahagia, which means happy beach, lies on the Indian Ocean. Due to rising seas and heavy rainfall, the village is sinking into the sea. The flooding continues even now, during dry season. The local primary school is damp and smells of rot. Many people say conditions are intolerable, and more than half the children have been taken out of school. Musjayadi Ramatula teaches in primary grades. He attended this school himself and is determined to persevere. His classroom flooded for the first time in 2013. [00:03:31] Speaker 5: The conditions here are very, very difficult for us. We often have to send the children home. [00:03:36] Speaker 6: When the classrooms flood, the children sit with their legs in water. [00:03:45] Speaker 3: Regular instruction has become impossible. The children are falling behind. Within the next five or six years, Ramatula believes the school will be submerged. The school will be abandoned, along with the village. What will it look like here three decades from now, in the year 2050? [00:04:10] Speaker 7: Well, at that time there will be the most extreme conditions of the weather forward, with our 17,000 islands and a lot of coasts, and that will be eaten up by the sea. So life will not be the same as here. There are a lot of illnesses, there will be plagues, and the economic growth of the whole world will be disturbed by horizontal strife, one against the other, because fighting for food, water, and maybe air also. That will be the very sad picture in 2050. [00:04:50] Speaker 3: For the Indonesian Special Envoy, the catastrophic impact of unchecked climate change is the biggest challenge facing humankind today. Ten years ago, the topic was barely on the radar. Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia. With some 10 million residents, it's the largest city in Southeast Asia. Around 30 million people live in the metropolitan area, making it the second largest urban conglomeration in the world. The fish markets are located in North Jakarta. The scent of the ocean lies in the air, mixing with the odors of the city. Just a few kilometers from the city center, the problems confronting this tropical metropolis become apparent. Some of us struggle with smog, heat, heavy traffic, pollution, population density, and poor hygienic conditions, and with increasing frequency, flooding. The slum district of Darap is located near the airport. Its 5,000 residents used to live near the sea, but these days, it almost looks like they live in it. Iko Zumarno has lived in Darap since the 1970s. He and his neighbors have watched the rising sea level with concern. At least once a month, the flooding reaches his knees. Sometimes the water remains two days, sometimes a week. [00:06:30] Speaker 5: It flooded here for the first time around the year 2000. First, it was just a few centimeters. Since 2010, the flooding has been getting higher and higher. But it's never been as bad as it is now. [00:06:46] Speaker 3: In Jakarta, the districts closest to the coast face the biggest problems. Poor neighborhoods like Darap will be among the first to need complete relocation. The slums most at risk are situated along a wide corridor that snakes through the city, says urban planner Marco Kusuma-Vijaya. [00:07:13] Marco Kusuma-Vijaya: Marco Kusuma-Vijaya: The floods are not only about the coastal areas. The floods actually happen also upstream in the city center of Jakarta, very near from my office. At least a few years later. [00:07:28] Speaker 3: Kusuma-Vijaya is director of the Rujak Center for Urban Studies, which searches for solutions for climate-related problems. Right now, their focus is the depletion of groundwater from the area. The declining water table has even more serious consequences than rising sea levels. It's causing the ground to sink, and large parts of the city with it. [00:07:54] Marco Kusuma-Vijaya: On the Bay of Jakarta, the sea level rises at between 4 to 6 millimeters per year. But worse is that the land of Jakarta is subsiding by 3 to 20 centimeters. [00:08:16] Speaker 3: In February 2013, nearly half of Jakarta was underwater. Scenes like this are likely to become increasingly common. Ocean levels continue to rise, the land is collapsing, and heavy rains are becoming more frequent. About one-third of Jakarta is currently below sea level. Environmental problems are causing a growing number of people to flee the city. But most want to remain, or have no other choice. In an effort to protect the capital, the government has begun building a seawall. But only 6 of the planned 50 kilometers have been built. And even there, water is finding its way through. It's becoming clear that everything located directly on the water will one day fall victim to it, like this mosque. Like this mosque. [00:09:20] Marco Kusuma-Vijaya: The bad thing is actually most of the poor neighborhoods will be flooded because the rich neighborhood have raised themselves, you know. But exactly because they raised their ground, so the water that come to their ground will actually flow into the surrounding poorer neighborhood. [00:09:42] Speaker 3: Poorer districts located along one of Jakarta's 13 rivers often stay submerged for weeks when the floodwaters rise. Poorer's 13 rivers, the rivers, the rivers, the rivers, rivers, fishermen, construction workers, and such that live here all face climate change-related risks. It's estimated that 65% of all population will be directly victimized, which is a lot of people. [00:10:28] Speaker 7: 65% of 300 million, 300 million is 170 million people. We are an island nation, and around 6,000 islands that are inhabited, their coastal areas will be destroyed. We have, they came up with figures of 40 million, 40 million, because they are the coastal area people, and those are prone to the effects of landslides. So around 40 million people are directly involved. [00:11:04] Speaker 3: And those involved may have to leave their homes. Indonesia is prone to a variety of natural disasters, from cyclones, to mudslides, flooding, to drought. There is one place that is at risk of all of these: the island of Java. And it's here that one of the world's most densely populated areas is located: Jakarta. The city's infamous traffic jams last almost until midnight, only to resume again at dawn. More than 3.5 million people commute into the city every day. Just 100 kilometers southeast, the bustle of Jakarta is a distant memory. Cheanyour district is situated at the foot of two inactive volcanoes. It's one of Java's most fertile farming regions. The rice, vegetables, and fruit grown here help feed the country's capital. The village of Saronghe is accessible only by motorbike or on foot. Dudu Duroni runs a small coffee plantation here. Like his father and grandfather, he is a farmer. Coffee used to be a safe crop choice. He had fetched a better price than vegetables and was hardier than rice. But that's changing. [00:13:00] Speaker 5: When I was younger, all farmers would plant during rainy season, so January, February and March. And then everyone would harvest during dry season. But now, my colleagues and I are desperate, because it's often dry in the rainy season. And in the dry season, it rains. We are paying the price for climate change. Our harvests have dropped massively by about 60 percent. [00:13:29] Speaker 3: Nearly half of local farmers have given up. They've moved to other parts of Indonesia or left the country altogether. Some have become construction workers in Saudi Arabia. But Dudu Duroni doesn't want to join them. [00:13:44] Speaker 4: I can't imagine doing anything else. [00:13:50] Speaker 5: I will stay here as long as possible. I'm a farmer, that's who I am. I'm going to try to somehow adapt to climate change. [00:14:00] Speaker 4: If it's too dry when it's time to plant, for example, I'll just wait. [00:14:10] Speaker 3: These mountainous regions don't just supply food to the cities. Their forests also help store rainwater. But extreme weather conditions are growing increasingly common here. And still, forests are falling victim to logging, leaving rainwater to flow unhindered into the valley. Sometimes the water sweeps away everything in its path. Mudslides have had fatal consequences. These images date from 2017 and 2018. Special climate envoy Rahmat Vittular says that by mid-century, climate change will have forced 40 million people to flee their homes in India. Farmers who can no longer till their fields. Slum dwellers whose ten-roofed huts have sunk into the sea. Most experts agree that it's the world's coldest regions that have become the cauldron for climate change. [00:15:26] Speaker ?: These are the Arctic, the Antarctic, Alaska, and much of the permafrost of Russia. Most experts agree that it's the world's coldest regions that have become the cauldron for climate change. These are the Arctic, the Antarctic, Alaska, and much of the permafrost of Russia. [00:15:40] Speaker 3: Most experts agree that it's the world's coldest regions that have become the cauldron for climate change. These are the Arctic, the Antarctic, Alaska, and much of the permafrost of Russia. Nikita Zimov trained as a mathematician, but his father Sergei's lifelong commitment inspired Nikita to change course. Now, like his father, he has dedicated his life to preserving Russia's permafrost. He's come to the Kolyma River in northeastern Siberia, an eight-hour flight from Moscow, to gather evidence that the permafrost is vanishing. The ground has warmed up to three degrees Celsius, causing the top layer of the ice to melt. One side effect is that more and more rare fossils are surfacing. For paleontologists, this would be a treasure trove, a field of riches from the distant Pleistocene epoch. [00:17:02] Speaker 9: So it's a piece of the mammoth's leg. [00:17:11] Speaker 10: Not the biggest one, but average size. Plenty. So here was, in the Pleistocene, the ecosystem here was huge. And on every square kilometer roamed one mammoth. And it was for 40,000 years. And on average here, on each square kilometer, now lay around 600 skeletons. So every once in a while they are... [00:17:36] Speaker 3: All along the Kolyma, soil is eroding, sliding into the river as a consequence of the melting permafrost. Nikita Zimov calls plants like these "zombies" because the soil in which they are growing was barren for 40,000 years. This vegetation will also soon end up in the river. The changes taking place here could soon be a reality across wide expanses of Russia. And it could also have a dramatic impact on the global climate and mass migration of peoples. For there is an immense amount of biomass still trapped within the permafrost. If that trapped CO2 and methane were to be released into the atmosphere, the pace of climate change would increase dramatically. [00:18:42] Speaker 10: So these are roots of grasses, which grew here maybe around 40,000 years ago. And the problem is that there is a huge storage of carbon. And take all these little roots and put them on the one side of the balance. And on the other side of the balance put all the above-ground vegetation of the planet. So basically all trees and shrubs of the planet, you will see that these tiny little roots weight more. And if permafrost will start to degrade everywhere, all this will become available for microbes to eat. And they will very soon convert into greenhouse gases, CO2 or methane. That's ice, pure ice out there. And you see, when this ice is melting, the water is mixing with this soil and creating these mud flows which are channeling down the slope. And degradation is happening very rapidly here. So it's a combination of both: lots of carbon and lots of ice. And that gives you a very rapid carbon bomb. So every problem that will be happening with the global warming worldwide, with this thing will be probably amplified. So if it will, let's say, if it's going to be bad somewhere, it will turn very bad. So if there is a way to stop that from happening, like, we need to apply that. Because if not, you know, you can write any apocalyptic scenarios you want and probably most of them will come true. [00:20:18] Speaker 3: It's breakfast time in Nikita Zimov's guest house. Interest in permafrost has soared over the past decade. So now the guest rooms here at the station are usually booked year-round with researchers from all over the world. This is a group from Oxford University, here to study the transformations currently underway in what used to be frozen Earth. [00:20:39] Speaker 10: So they kept here at the veterinary, and I think it was unsustainable. [00:20:46] Speaker 3: During the Soviet era, this enormous satellite used to broadcast television programming from Moscow. The Zimovs turned the station into a home base for scientists from around the world. The data that has been collected in Siberia and across Russia's Far East are alarming. Normally, the vegetation binds greenhouse gases in the summer and only releases very small amounts back into the atmosphere in winter. [00:21:32] Speaker 10: So out here you can see the monitor, which is the... [00:21:39] Speaker 3: But for the past few years, the permafrost that's thawing more and more in the summer is releasing ever-increasing amounts of methane and CO2 during the winter. [00:21:49] Speaker ?: The only method. [00:21:56] Speaker 11: At the moment the biosphere is acting as a, what could we say, as a friend, as a moderate brake on climate change. So about 40% of the carbon dioxide we emit is being absorbed by the biosphere, and that's acting to slow down climate change. If that wasn't happening, climate change would be even faster than it is. One of the big concerns we have as Earth system scientists is understanding how long will the biosphere keep acting as a brake, and is there a danger that at some time in the future this brake will turn into an accelerator. [00:22:32] Speaker 3: Scientists from all over are turning their attention to the permafrost and its potential impact on climate change. This group of researchers from Prague is being hosted by the Institute of Applied Ecology of the North in the Republic of Saka. The researchers have just returned from a crater that is carved into the permafrost. These soil samples are a gift to the Institute. In return, the researchers hope to obtain permission to exhibit some of their spectacular finds in a museum at home: remains of a mammoth, and the mummified remains of an extinct horse from the Pleistocene epoch. [00:23:08] Speaker 12: The crater in which the fossilized remains were found was named the Batagaika crater, [00:23:23] Speaker 3: but locals call it the gateway to the underworld. It's easy to see why. In the 1960s, a small section of forest was cleared to make way for a new road. The permafrost originally beneath the trees began eroding. At first, the hole was just a few meters deep. [00:24:05] Speaker 5: On average, the megacrater is between 40 and 60 meters deep, and in some places it's 100 meters deep. It's 1.5 kilometers long and about 1 kilometer wide right now. But it's hard to determine exactly how wide it is because it's expanding so quickly. These kinds of catastrophic events could become increasingly common, and not just in residential areas, but anywhere in the wilderness, wherever there are pipelines and natural gas facilities. Our entire infrastructure could be impacted. [00:24:42] Speaker 3: Most of the cities in Siberia and in Russia's Far East could be affected, about 25 million people in all. But how big would the impact be if all the world's permafrost were to melt? So far, there isn't enough cross-regional research to answer that. But there are findings regarding the polar region from the Global Terrestrial Network for permafrost. In 1996, the permafrost melted to a depth of 45 centimeters in the summer. By 2017, it melted to a depth of 87 centimeters, a nearly 100 percent increase over just 20 years. This poses a danger to both people and infrastructure. Natural gas and oil pipelines are particularly affected. Greenpeace has estimated that leaks in pipelines caused by thawing soil are leading to about 1 percent of oil being lost. That oil, some 5 million tons of it each year, seeps into the ground. The residents of the Arctic city of Chersky, in the far northeast of Russia, are bearing witness to this rapid transformation. Temperatures are rising inexorably. Asphalt on the streets is beginning to buckle. And several buildings are showing signs that the solid ground on which they once stood has begun to sink. The city of Chersky on the Kalima River is also home to Nikita Zimov. Even though temperatures drop here to minus 60 degrees Celsius in the winter, the erosion of the permafrost soil appears unstoppable. This is especially apparent at the former water treatment plant. Like all the buildings here, it stands on pillars. The earth began to sink here just two years ago. Now, the crater is already 10 meters deep. [00:27:06] Speaker 10: As soon as it starts, it's going very rapid. So, when I was here a week ago, there were some, those two plates were still in the air. And now we came, they already collapsed down. And there is a huge niche going underneath the permafrost. So, where this ice has been eroded, and eventually all that slope will collapse also. So, this process kind of growing, and it's, I know, centimeters a day, maybe tens of centimeters a day in the hot day. So, we have cities built in the permafrost area. And now, with climate getting warmer, permafrost is also getting warmer. So, when we look at the degradation, it looks like that. So, all the infrastructure in the next few decades will probably be collapsed. Elsewhere, the heat of the sun is relentless. [00:27:48] Speaker ?: This is Cameroon in Central Africa. [00:27:49] Speaker 3: Here, in the stream bed of the Mayobula River, signs of despair are everywhere. The north of Cameroon receives two months of rainfall a year at most, in August and September. During the rest of the year, people must walk far to find water, or dig deep. Older people who live here say that water used to flow abundantly through the Mayobula River, into the Logon River, and eventually discharging into Lake Chad. But those days are gone. Edouard Caldapa works for the Caritas Charity Organization in the region. His job is to ward off looming humanitarian catastrophes. [00:28:52] Speaker 5: Access to drinking water is an enormous problem for people and animals here, in the far north of Cameroon. [00:29:10] Speaker 3: Caldapa often visits villages near the provincial capital of Maruwa. Today, he's in Wuyang, home to many herders. Caldapa has been a social worker for many years, and knows the signs of an impending humanitarian catastrophe. In the summer of 2018, the region was on the brink. [00:29:33] Speaker 1: Only women used to fetch water. But now it's so bad, the entire family has to help. [00:29:39] Speaker 5: Now, when young people want to build a house, they have no water. When we want to work, there is no water. A young man wants to be a farmer, or work in sales. And there's no water. [00:29:55] Speaker 4: It's already begun. Young men are leaving. [00:29:58] Speaker 5: They're going to the big cities, to Jonday and Douala. People are starting to leave. We no longer know how we will be able to manage. [00:30:13] Speaker 3: The drought is especially hard on people who must find water not just for their families, but also for their livestock. [00:30:19] Speaker 13: They are going to work. [00:30:22] Speaker 3: Vagai Granvu believes he is about 60 years old, and has always tended his herds. Now, it's so dry that he and his son Jean-Paul are running out of options. This animal feed was harvested the previous year. By now, it's completely dried out, and there isn't much left. If the next month doesn't bring rain, the Granvu family fear the worst. If their livestock die, they will be left with nothing. [00:30:51] Speaker 4: The spring is six kilometers away. [00:31:02] Speaker 5: We have to fetch water twice a day just to have barely enough for our four cattle, the goats, and my family. Over the past 10-15 years, the situation has grown much worse. That's why young people aren't able to stay in their villages. They're forced to leave, to go to the cities. There's no future for them here. [00:31:29] Speaker 3: Young people are moving away because the lack of water is stealing their futures. Herders are having to leave for the cities because their livestock died of thirst. Traders, grain farmers and hunters, people from across northern Cameroon are leaving their homes. They are climate refugees, a sign of things to come. But climate is hardly ever the only reason behind a decision to migrate. Poverty is often a factor. Fear of terror attacks can also play a role. Most of the people gathered here fled from the Islamist group Boko Haram in neighboring Nigeria. They are now unintentionally contributing to the desperate situation facing local Cameroonians. People stand in line for up to eight hours to receive a few kilos of food. They wait quietly and patiently, despite the brutal heat. There are 200 sacks of millet and corn for 30,000 people. This help is urgently needed, but it's only a drop in the bucket. [00:32:43] Speaker 2: We've already seen several waves of migration. [00:33:09] Speaker 5: People keep trying to make their way south, to find farmland and areas where there's more rain. Many people have left here, heading south. [00:33:19] Speaker 6: Here in the Memei region, the rains used to begin in April. [00:33:36] Speaker 5: Now the rains come in late May, sometimes in early June. [00:33:42] Speaker 13: In the past, it rained until October, but last year, the rains ended in August. [00:33:56] Speaker 5: That's a disaster for us farmers in Memei. [00:34:01] Speaker 3: In order to farm properly, soil must remain moist for at least four months out of the year. Experts call this the 120-day line. If rain lasts less than four months, soil will grow arid. Grain cultivation becomes impossible and livestock die. In the Sahil region, this line between survival and disaster is moving ever further south, toward the equator, where there's more rain. From 1970 to 2016, up to 100 kilometer wide stretches of land that were once arable have become desert. As a result, hundreds of camps have arisen in the Sahil region filled with people who have lost their livelihoods. Temperatures reach 45 degrees Celsius in the shade and 60 degrees in the full sun. People here live at the edge of despair, relying on food deliveries from NGOs. Isa Ngolda and her family live in one of these camps. They have enough food for now and access to a water pump. But when they fled the drought, they lost their independence. Their fields, where they used to plant millet and onions, grew arid. Isa, her husband, and their five children are climate refugees. [00:35:28] Speaker 9: We're suffering so much. [00:35:31] Speaker 1: There's no rain, we have no water, we don't have enough water to grow anything. [00:35:37] Speaker 9: People here are heading south, hoping that they'll be able to grow crops there and find something to eat. [00:35:52] Speaker 3: In Southeast Asia, flooding is driving people from their homes. In Africa, it's the devastating drought. Cameroon is suffering, as is neighboring Chad. Lake Chad, which lent its name to the entire region, is the only natural source of water in the area. Researchers from the International Organization for Migration have come to the region surrounding Lake Chad to investigate the connection between climate change and the rise of climate migration. Mashauri Murilo of the UN Migration Organization has spent years in the Sahel region. Every encounter and every conversation adds another layer of detail to his preliminary findings. Today, Murilo and his team are visiting a camp for displaced people near Lake Chad. Under the shadow of a nearly barren tree, he speaks with Mohamed Ibrahim, the head of the family. Ibrahim tells Murilo he is a herder. The family suffered a terrible ordeal before finally arriving at Lake Chad. It was heat and lack of water that drove them from their home. [00:37:14] Speaker 13: Climate change has a huge impact on us herders. [00:37:20] Speaker 5: If there's no rain, no plants grow. And without green plants to eat, our animals die. So we herders are hit very hard by this. [00:37:27] Speaker 7: From the Chad side, Nigerian side, Cameroonian side, Niger side, they all depended on this source. [00:37:46] Speaker 4: You can realize that this lake is unique. It's just a fresh water within an arid area. So, so many livelihoods dependent on this Lake Chad. If the Lake Chad disappears, it will be a serious environmental catastrophe. Because without the Lake Chad, we can hardly talk about a living atmosphere in the Lake Chad region. [00:38:15] Speaker 3: In 1963, Lake Chad covered an area of 25,000 square kilometers. By 2007, it was just 2,500 square kilometers, more than 90% smaller. And the lake continues to shrink. If the lake were to completely dry up, more than 50 million people would probably become climate refugees. And this figure does not take into account the rate of population growth. Lake Chad remains a life source for millions of people. But as it continues to shrink, water is becoming an ever scarcer and more valuable resource. And so are arable land and the fish in the lake. As Lake Chad gets smaller, competition for these resources will become increasingly bitter. Even now, fishermen in the region are competing for dwindling stocks of carp, Nile perch and tilapia. [00:39:12] Speaker 4: With climate change, there is a key impact on the lake in that it affects the distribution and the pattern of fish. And with that in mind, it affects the fishing industry as well. Basically, it touches on three major livelihood strategies of people surrounding this area, namely farmers, herders and fishermen. [00:39:40] Speaker 3: The region surrounding Lake Chad is emblematic of the close connection between climate change and migration. [00:39:46] Speaker ?: We have no more fish in the lake. In the past, we had a lot of fish, good fish. We sold them here or over in Nigeria. But now they have problems with terrorists. And here we have no more fish in our lake. [00:39:57] Speaker 5: From Lake Chad to Indonesia, farmers can no longer rely on predictable seasons for planting and harvesting. [00:40:19] Speaker 3: The climate has become a threat. There are hurricanes, cyclones, drought, flooding, mudslides and wildfires. And the melting permafrost could soon exacerbate all of those around the globe. On the American continent, people are fleeing drought in northern Brazil. In the Caribbean and the southern United States, it's hurricanes. In Africa, people are leaving the arid Sahel region. Some will likely head north to Europe. In Spain, Italy and Greece, people will also flee the rising heat. In Asia, coastal regions are vanishing under rising oceans. People are fleeing to higher ground in river deltas, like Bangladesh. The South Sea islands will be completely submerged. How many people will have become climate refugees by 2050? [00:41:17] Speaker 12: We know at the moment that approximately 20 million people are being displaced every year. That number is more or less true for the last decade. So we can say that under climate change, population growth, possibly more vulnerable populations, this number is going to grow. [00:41:33] Speaker 2: If you look today, we know that every year at least 25 million people flee. So we fast forward 30 years. So that's why I think if you go to the figure 500 million is not a very high estimate. [00:41:48] Speaker 5: If I had to estimate, I'd say maybe a fifth or a quarter of the world's population will be forced to migrate. So that's about two to three billion people. [00:42:03] Speaker 11: So that's what I'd say. [00:42:04] Speaker ?: So that's what I'd say. [00:42:04] Speaker 11: So that's what I'd say. [00:42:05] Speaker ?: So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say. [00:42:10] Speaker 9: So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say. [00:42:12] Speaker ?: So that's what I'd say. [00:42:13] Speaker 9: So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say. [00:42:15] Speaker ?: So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say. So that's what I'd say.