Everything Is Falling: What Happens Next

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Hey everyone, Elizabeth Copeland, ProTrader here at Verified Investing, talking about market movers today. And boy, were the markets moving. First, I do want to share with you some news that came out at 8.30 a.m. So earlier this morning, jobs reports came out. The non-farm payrolls added 172,000 new jobs to the workforce. That's interesting because we actually exceeded the unemployment rate held today at 4.3%. We exceeded expectations, right? And that was the consensus, I believe about 80,000 or so. So either way, we had this job report come out this morning and markets reacted. So first, I do want to show you what happened this morning with the 10-year yield. It is up right about 4.535, 5.55, somewhere in there, trading green on the day significantly, a nice surge up in the 10-year yield. Actually, look at this trend line here that I have that goes right through a pivot top of September 2025, connecting this pivot low, very big pivot low of April 2025. We all remember that. And then the highs of May 19th. Now, this is the first area resistance I do see on that. What's interesting here, though, is we could also see, actually, let's just see if this is going to be a parallel here. I do think that we have some, obviously, with some breakthroughs. But yeah, there is a little bit of a parallel besides this breakdown here before reentering this parallel. From basically February to March, we did break through on those March lows. But otherwise, within this parallel, I do see resistance there. But what I would watch out for before I started chasing any kind of upside, if it did come back down here eventually, I would wait for a break and retrace. That's more of my play as a conservative trader. So I wouldn't be chasing any kind of bounce because it did kind of bounce, kissed here once, broke through twice, came back in and then hit three times. So this would be the fourth hit technically, even though we did have that reversal out and back into this parallel. But there is some support here. I absolutely would wait for a break to the downside. But I like this upslope and trend line the best here. We have a pivot high from back in May of 2025. That connects right over. And we just pierced that again when we had that spike in May of this year, actually. So almost a year later before falling back in. First area of a very aggressive support would be right here. But I would wait for this. It depends on the day it gets there, but basically 4.7 range, right? All right. So the DXY, very big push up today. It was up, let's see, as much as nearly 1% on the day. That is a huge move for the DXY and still pushing a big reversal from the lows this morning around 99 and then eventually did pierce that 100 mark. What's interesting about this chart is I do have a longer term trend line that does connect some pivot lows. Actually, let's move that up slightly. Some pivot lows before. I mean, yes, it broke down in January below that, but that is some nice support there. So if we zoom out, let's just go to the weekly chart here. We do have a weekly bottoming tail as well. And that shows that the bottom kind of is being put in and some of these areas from that April 2024 low, December 20 low, January 21. And then again, with this bottoming tail, I did break through, but didn't confirm below this trend line at 95.5. What I like to see here is already have this, this purple line. I'll make it yellow for you so you can see it better at 95.808. I like this area right around there for a retrace of that weekly trend line for a bounce, but it's really hard to find support right now when we're ripping so high. What I'll find first for you is some resistance. Watch it at the 101.902. Again, these are not long-term plays. I know we're on the weekly chart daily. You'll be able to see where I put that in as well. I see that it's a pivot top there as well. You see that 101 level. That's an interesting level for the DXY to have some downturn. That would mean a break of some of these pretty important pivots right around 100, that psychological level 100. This area, and I'll make this a different color, has been hit once, maybe call it kiss there at least, but twice, three times for sure. So a break above this, we could have some more room to go. So that first pivoter on 101 is where I would look for some sort of reversal, but it'll be interesting because what has acted as resistance before will act as support. If this breakthrough confirms above and then retraces, I do like that for the net support level, but it has to break there. It has to move above. I wouldn't do it now. I wouldn't chase on a break by any means because we've seen it before where it breaks out and then comes back in and whips us out of positions. So wait for a confirmation above. This does take a little bit more patience, but that is just something interesting just to see those market movers today. The DXY up almost more than half a percent, right around 0.7% earlier today. All right, now I want to talk about some indices because I like the indices. I like playing the indices. I think they're interesting. We'll talk about two different ones, the blue-collar ship indices and then the tech. Very interestingly today, a lot of the red on the board, besides the two that just shows you, which is the 10-year yield futures and the DXY, almost everything else was red. We're talking Bitcoin, crypto. All coins were getting crushed. We had oil down. The Qs were down. Spiders were down. Everything was down except for the 10-year yield and the DXY. I'd actually be interested if you know something that was still green besides those two. Please comment below. I'd love to see it because it was just an interesting day overall in the markets. Usually when you see these things start to move together, it's going to be a big down day, especially when you have stuff like, look at this, actually very interesting here. It's not quite an engulfing reversal candle on the DJI. So if we close below here, I mean, that is a good start to the downside. Very interesting down day on the DJI. Now, what would have happened if we would have opened above the wick of this green bar candle, above 51, that would be an engulfing. But because we're, the body is just slightly below that, technically I wouldn't, I don't like that signal as a complete engulfing, but it is a good down day for the DJI. Now, if we scoot back here just a bit, what I would like to see for further downside of this would be a break of this trend line. Now it's getting close. It actually pulled away a lot back in April of 2026 before finally falling back in and then making that pivot where I just connected there. So, I mean, you could even argue that, I mean, this pivot was a good one. And then I did act as support and then resistance eventually before falling through. But for this purpose and where we're at now in the markets, I do like this trend line connecting this pivot low from 2026, March of 2026, excuse me, May of 2026. And then potentially now when we start testing this, what has to happen is we have to break below and confirm below. So meaning a close below and then a close below that before a reversal. And we could see some updates for sure. This is, I'm not talking like a big rollover we're dropping and this is the big correction coming. But it will be interesting to see if we finally break this trend line. Some of these lines in the sand on some of these indices will be tested and look at the cues. Remember, I've been showing this in this, this, this chart, this, the cues for a couple of these videos now, because these are what fascinate me. It felt like forever. We just could not get it to stop running up. Well, since this pivot, this pivot starting on May 19th, we were up at 8% in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 trading days. And then just in three, we've almost reversed that. That is a pretty impressive. That's a pretty impressive statistic there. So just starting this morning, we have raced one, two, at least three, maybe four trading days, depending on where this closes and, uh, and drops to tonight. It blew through some gaps. This was a major gap on the chart here. And once that blew through that 717 level, I knew this thing is not going to, uh, not to go into bounce today. Those, this, the, by the dippers that we usually see Friday afternoons that flowed up, it just did not happen today is more of a, a hard sell down and not just a float down, but a hard sell down with those huge dropping pretty significantly throughout the afternoon. Now this next gap fill level, uh, right at this, uh, this green board, we started that, that nice surge up around 7 0 1, not exactly 7 0 1 50 and change. Um, that will be our next test for this because it has broken this parallel channel back out of this parallel channel. I had, uh, the data back all the way to, man, we have to zoom way out for this one, 2025 lows or April, 2025, that rebound back into that chart. When I started even it out after the, the, um, the tariff sell-off, it's been balancing in this parallel had acting as resistance back in January, 26, got back in recently acted like that again, and then hit this midline before breaking back down. And I know there's some trend lines along the way as well, but, uh, this was the big one that I wanted to watch here, this last red bar candle, or excuse me, last trend line, this red trend line here that I was watching, uh, to see a break to the downside. And boy, did we break. So very interesting. They're a very interesting day in the markets. Again, the only thing that I saw up today was the 10 year yield DXY, but DJI cues spiders. I mean, even looking at the, uh, the SPY SPX or SPX even let's look at the SPX. Yeah. Big down day on SPX as well. Look at that trend line that broke. So this was a trend line that I had from some of these pivots. Uh, we can even move this down further if you wanted to look at this pivot. So I guess, I mean, even if you wanted to, to make this some kind of, you know, support, support, support resistance, what I would watch is for a retrace to this before some downside, but Hey, this is going to be an interesting area to test too, just because I just copied and pasted. This is a parallel channel, if not technically formed yet, because this needs to touch and bounce or touch and break through. But then I think this will be the next big test of the SPX. If we can move down to the 72, nine to depending on the day hit 73 level, that will be an interesting next level for a further downside. Again, I don't think these are going to be, you know, moving down and correcting 7% a day. I mean, who knows, but I do see some bounce along the way. So some of those breaks retraces and more downside is what I'm looking for in my positions, but hopefully had a good day in the markets. It was very interesting day for a Friday, which normally I like to buy on Fridays, but buying just wasn't happening with a lot of these retails and just institutions, maybe even sitting out on Friday or trading in the morning. Ever since then, it was a big fall to the downside. So can't wait to see what happens on Monday morning and where we're at. Hopefully you'll join us back again. Thanks for watching everybody. Have a great week.