Economic Frustrations Flip GOP Strongholds Blue

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: So how late were you up? First of all, great to have you back. I'm curious how late you stayed up last night. [00:00:06] Michael: Great to be with you guys. I was up to about 3, got back up at about 5.45, so I don't know, two and a half hours of sleep. Okay, well, it's an 8 p.m. bedtime for you tonight, okay? If I do so off, don't be offended. No. [00:00:18] Speaker 3: Okay, well, thank you for staying up for us. Yeah. Your prediction last week, a double-digit margin, 12 to 15 for the House. You said the Senate is where all the intrigue is. There are nine Senate races within the margin of error. All that and more went to Democrats. [00:00:34] Michael: Yeah, pretty incredible night. It was a fascinating night to watch things. You know, pretty early, you started to see things going the Democrats' way. You know, I was watching a lot of these House seats in, you know, Trump districts that he won by 15, 18 points in 2024, and particularly those districts in Florida, Texas, Alabama, that Republicans had redistricted in order to give themselves a better chance to get more Republicans. Almost all of those went Democratic, so that was a big sign. The South Carolina race, Darlene Graham going down to pediatrician Annie Andrews, that was a big one. But for me, the real wow moment of the night came after midnight when Gina Hinojosa was declared the winner in the Texas governor race. And it became clear that, and it looks like this is the result, that every single statewide race in Texas went to the Democrats. That was the moment where I sort of sat back and was like, wow, we are in historic territory here. [00:01:35] Speaker 1: So what does that mean, this historic change, this historic territory, what does it mean? Is it a lasting change? What's going on in America? What's going on politically? [00:01:48] Michael: Well, I think a couple of things are happening, Carol. I mean, one thing is I think voters pay attention. You know, we sometimes feel like we're in an era where nobody is paying attention to anything, and it's impossible to reach voters, and you can't get them to answer polls. I think the message last night was voters pay attention. And voters are hurting, and they're hurting because of policies of the Trump administration, and they wanted a change, and they certainly sent a resounding change. So I think that's one big takeaway. Now I think you have to look ahead to what Democrats are going to do to respond to this big, overwhelming boost of support that they got, because they're going to have to move to, you know, we're moving beyond the we don't like Trump, and that's going to be our midterm case, to now you have to act. You've got both chambers of Congress. What are you going to do to help people? [00:02:42] Speaker 3: Yeah, they have to deliver. I mean, look how quickly things shifted from just two years ago. I mean, two years ago, sitting here, we could have been talking to you about the historic night that President Trump and Republicans had when they controlled everything for the last two years. So the question is, in your view, in your many years in Washington, what are Democrats going to do so that two years from now they can say, we were able to get your cost of living lower, we were able to deliver on those affordability promises, especially with a president who's already said he's not afraid to veto things? [00:03:14] Michael: Yeah, look, I think we're going to start out, right, with some investigations and a bit of score settling and that sort of thing. But I think Democrats are going to have to pivot pretty quickly to cutting some deals with the president. And, you know, the president just in the last 24 hours has both said, I'm Mr. Veto, and he said, I'm looking forward to working with Democrats to help for the good of the country. And I think that's, you know, indicative of the fact that he may be open to making deals. That's what he likes to do. He likes to make deals. So I think Democrats need to find the places where they can make deals to try to bring prices down on various things that help people. And if they can do that, they're going to be better positioned, I think, for 2028. [00:03:58] Speaker 1: I guess I would also argue, you know, Michael, that, and not to make this political, but both Republicans and Democrats need to get the affordability message at this point, that it needs to be a government of the people for the people, if you will. I think about the amount of money spent on campaign advertising and ads, a record amount. It's a lot of money, and that comes from some really wealthy big donors. And it's, I think about the corporate component and all of this. Like, when do we go back to kind of thinking about what the citizens, every citizen needs, you know, whether it's the upper ring of the K, rung of the K, or the lower rung of the K? When do we kind of get back to really listening to what the voters kind of said they wanted last night? [00:04:45] Michael: Yeah, I think both parties have to take that away as a message of last night. And I think we're going to see it play out in the 2028 presidential election. You know, obviously that starts, like, I don't know, tomorrow, basically. So, you know, I think both parties have big tasks in front of them. Democrats have to figure out how to have a forward-looking vision that moves beyond, we don't like President Trump. And Republicans need to figure out what the party is going to be in the post-Trump era. And those are big, existential questions for both parties. I think this is going to be fascinating to see. But I think the message the voters sent was you need to pay attention to us and our concerns and helping us. And less on, you know, some of these kind of, I don't know, social issues that we see so many ads about and all the name-calling and that kind of thing. I think the clear message was we want people who will solve problems. [00:05:42] Speaker 3: You know, I'm wondering about Pete Hegseth because earlier today, CBS citing sources said that the president is asking advisers if Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense, should go. He was asked about this later. He said no. He said he's doing a good job. But he also said that the war was the reason, the president said the war was the reason that Republicans lost this, this election. Do you think somebody within his administration will have to go as a result of this walloping that the Republicans took? [00:06:18] Michael: Yeah. I mean, I think that is pretty likely. And, you know, you may see a couple of resignations from the cabinet. That is typical as you head into the last two years. But I think the Pete Hegseth question is going to be a really interesting one. You saw J.D. Vance, the vice president, go out today and very directly point at the war. And then the president echoed that and said, yep, that was a huge factor. I mean, if I'm Pete Hegseth, I don't feel good about that. So we'll see if that happens. I know Democrats, you know, wouldn't mind going down the impeachment road with Hegseth. But it feels like the president's probably searching around for someone to blame and someone to take a fall. And he seems at the top of the list right now. [00:07:04] Speaker 1: Michael, what kind of calls were you, like, kind of getting this morning coming off of? [00:07:10] Speaker 3: It's at 5 a.m. when you woke up. [00:07:12] Speaker 1: Well, maybe it was a little bit later. I'm just curious. Or what kind of email, like, what were you hearing in terms of the reaction to this? [00:07:20] Michael: Oh, across the board, just really astonishment at the scope. I mean, I don't really know anyone on either side of the aisle who was looking at this kind of blowout win for the Democrats. You know, projections right now, there are projections out there that the House may end up with 255 to 260 Democrats. You know, if they pass 257, 257 is the 2008 benchmark. You go beyond that, you're talking about mid-1990s, since either party had that kind of majority. So, I mean, we are in really, really unexpected territory. So, you know, a lot of giddiness among my Democrat friends, a lot of, let's say, sadness, to put it mildly, on the Republican side of the aisle. But I don't think either side expected this kind of blowout. [00:08:10] Speaker 3: You know, on the Republican side, we spoke about this last week, and we brought up that very early in your career, you did work for Susan Collins. She did suffer a political defeat last night. You still, at the end of last week, when we spoke to you, said she still had a chance to pull this off. Your reflection on her time in the Senate and the race that ultimately brought her down. [00:08:30] Michael: Yeah, you know, Susan Collins, 30 years of service, and, you know, the most notable thing is that she's never missed a vote in the Senate. And, I mean, that's an extraordinary thing. Whatever your political persuasion is, I think you have to say, this is someone who really took public service as seriously as you can take it. I do think, as I sort of hinted at last week in our conversation, that ultimately the sort of overall political wins were finally the thing that took her out. And, you know, she'll look back, and I'm sure with pride on her career. I think she made, you know, plenty of choices that a lot of her constituents didn't agree with, as any senator, any elected official does. But, you know, I think we have to acknowledge it's a pretty extraordinary career. [00:09:20] Speaker 1: All right. So never too early to talk about the presidential race. Just got about a minute left here. Yeah. Is it too early in your view? Are you also fielding questions about, all right, now what? Let's think about the presidential race and who might run and who should run. [00:09:36] Michael: Absolutely fielding questions, Carol, about it. And, you know, I think if I was J.D. Vance this morning, I would not be feeling good. I think 48 hours ago he was considered the frontrunner. All of a sudden he's got a pretty big baggage on him and probably isn't near as confident as he was. Maybe the same for Marco Rubio, who was obviously part of this administration. And so you start to look possibly at someone else on the Republican side. I'm not sure who could emerge. The Ron DeSantis's, the Ted Cruz's of the world, I'm sure, will be interested. And on the Democrat side, you know, I think John Ossoff, based on his performance, is going to get a ton of attention, whether he, you know, thinks it's too early in his career to go down that path. But I think he's going to be very, very important. You're going to see new sort of kingmakers, Chris Pappas in New Hampshire, Annie Andrews in South Carolina, are going to be, their endorsements are going to be really important on the Democrat side. It's going to be fascinating.