DAVID HUNTER — The markets will come out of this consolidation in a very steep way!

[00:00:00] David Hunter: I think the lows we saw last week or whenever it was, I guess it was last week, those should be your lows for this period. And we come out of that for that whole consolidation. We come out of that and I think come out of it in a very steep way this summer and into the fall. [00:00:30] Gary Bohm: Welcome back to Metals and Miners. I'm your host, Gary Bohm. Today, we're going to be discussing the markets with longtime macro analyst David Hunter. David, it's an honor to have you back on Metals and Miners. Welcome to the show. Yeah, hi, Gary. [00:00:57] David Hunter: Thanks for having me back. It's great to see you. [00:01:00] Gary Bohm: Yeah, you too. All right. So, David, you've got many decades of experience in the markets as a macro analyst. You've seen all kinds of cycles and how various markets, tops and bottoms, domestic and international issues and their impact on the markets, tensions, concerns and their impacts on the markets. There's a lot to discuss today. But before we do, what do you hope for those tuning into this conversation that they will walk away with after listening to it? [00:01:27] David Hunter: Well, they'll certainly walk away with the idea that I think we are in a historic period here. I call it the end of a soon-to-be 44-year secular bull market. And I think this is going to end in a pretty spectacular fashion, meaning a parabolic run-up into a top. And I think people will just have to understand that it's going to be hard to want to be out at the top or to want to go the other way when you don't get to those kind of levels with it easy to spot the fact that you have to get out. So there's another side of the mountain coming, but for the next few months, I think it's, you know, up, up and away. [00:02:18] Gary Bohm: Okay. All right. I want to begin with the Federal Reserve. Kevin Worsh is now the head of the Fed. Worsh aligns with Trump in terms of policy. That's why he was chosen by Trump. Jerome Powell, though, has not left the building. He has remained on as the voting governor until his term expires, January 31st, 2028. By him remaining on, that denies Trump the ability to put someone in that specific seat that aligns with Trump. It also stunts Worsh's ability to wrangle the FOMC members towards his direction as Powell holds a lot of sway over all of those members. What actions are you expecting the new Fed to take throughout the remainder of 2026? And does the massive pile of maturing debt that's coming due that needs to be rolled over, does that sway this Fed in any way due to the impacts on the deficit that's already huge? [00:03:16] David Hunter: Yeah, frankly, it's hard to know how long Powell's going to stick around. He obviously has pretty much made it clear he's sticking around until that lawsuit or that—not a lawsuit, but that investigation goes away, and it's kind of hanging over his head as well as the Fed. You know, we'll see. But my guess is Worsh is well-respected in the industry. He's well-respected within the Federal Reserve. He's a calming voice. He's not somebody that, you know, creates conflict. He's got strong views on long-term where the Fed should go and what they should be doing that's different than what's going on now. I think Powell respects the position of chairman enough that he'll be a voting member. I don't think he's going to get into big conflicts with Worsh or try to, you know, run the committee from a second spot. I really don't think that's going to be the issue. But, you know, obviously there's going to be a little bit of drama until he leaves, I think. And Worsh right now, obviously, there's talk about a rate hike and concerns about the economy being stronger than people thought and inflation being higher than people thought or expected. My take is that we are going to see inflation roll back over. A lot of what we've had here is basically, you know, the result of the conflict in Iran, the run-up in oil prices and other prices commodity-wise. And that now that we're going the other way on oil and going the other way in terms of the conflict, at least seemingly, that you're going to see inflation get back to the downtrend that it was in before the conflict started. So I think not this meeting, but I think in coming months, Worsh is going to be able to cut rates. Worsh is going to be able to, you know, operate a policy that he believes in. You know, he strongly said, I believe, that we're too caught in the, you know, the month-to-month data, you know, looking backward-looking data and making our decision that way. He wants to be longer-term in this and understanding that AI and technology are going to have dampening effects on inflation longer term. And that just because the economy is growing, that isn't a reason to tighten, that you really want to, you know, he does want to, he does want to shrink the balance sheet. You know, he wants to get that back to a normalized balance sheet. As I've said many times, that's not going to be easy to do given the macro situation we have. Because I think the economy is slowing. I probably said this when we met long ago, but I still think we're heading for a global bust, which means it's not just a recession, it's something much worse. So ultimately, I think macro is going to trump any intention to shrink the balance sheet. You know, he might be able to do small amounts of it at times, but between now and that bust, and I think a bust is next year, that once that bust hits, it's going to be expanding the balance sheet, it's going to be the story, not shrinking it. So what literally gets done between now and then, if any, I think is going to be incidental. [00:06:47] Gary Bohm: So, in your view, is what it sounds like, I don't want to put words in your mouth, but it sounds like you believe he'll have an easier time to lower rates than over the next, you know, give it, say, one to three quarters versus shrinking the balance sheet. [00:07:06] David Hunter: Yes, I think that's true, and I also think you'll have a much easier time than current market expectations. You know, if you look at what the market's calling for, they're talking about rate hikes, they're pricing in, certainly no cuts this year, and I think you're probably between now and the end of the year going to see, you know, at least one or two. I don't have to, but I am also a bull on the bond market and have said forever, the bond market sets rates, not the Fed. So I'm not too worried about how many cuts we have or whether they're going to cut or not, because basically I see it as the bond market is bottoming here, the rates are topping, and that as the economy becomes more apparent, the economy is slowing, and as oil prices head for $60, you know, $60, and inflation looks like it's rolling over, you're going to see a big bond rally and rates are going to come down. The Fed will be following rates down, not leading them. [00:08:06] Gary Bohm: All right, so with the war in Iran seemingly wrapping up, leading to a likely peace dividend, oil prices beginning to materially fall, like you said, the midterm spending is now all out in front of us. AI productivity is helping organizations everywhere to be more productive, more efficient. The massive AI infrastructure build-out is happening, and a run-at-hot mandate by the Trump administration in order to outgrow the debt-to-GDP situation. Do you believe that we're headed for a period of significant growth, market expansion, and resources deployment, or are you in the opposite camp? [00:08:46] David Hunter: I'm in the opposite camp. I do think that those things are happening and are somewhat offsets to what else is happening, but I do believe the economy without AI, meaning particularly the consumer economy, is rolling over, is slowing. You know, we had strong retail sales today, and you can look at that and say, hey, you know, what are you talking about? But under the surface, you know, incomes, although jobs are okay, incomes are not going to be able to prop up spending like that for very long. Savings has been drawn down. We've talked about forever a have-and-have-not economy. That continues to be the case that, you know, half the economy is really struggling just to get by month-to-month, while the other half is kind of propping things up. I think as we move along, it's going to become heavier and less likely to keep this thing going. It's hard to see that right now because, you know, the manufacturing side, particularly the AI side, you know, building these data centers and the, you know, the energy that needs to expand to meet that, all that's kind of offsetting what would normally be a consumer-driven economy. You know, starting to show signs of real fatigue, but I still think that's ultimately going to happen, and, you know, as I say, because of the leverage in the system, which is far bigger leverage than we had in 2008-9, you know, more leverage than we've ever had going into a downturn, is going to be the reason I say this is going to be so much bigger than just a normal recession. [00:10:31] Gary Bohm: All right, so the economy is slowing as you're laying it out, but your melt-up thesis is that the market itself is going to rapidly expand. Can you explain why that's the case and where you believe we are in the cycle? [00:10:50] David Hunter: Sure. That can seem counterintuitive. You know, I'm talking negative on the economy, probably more negative than anybody out there in terms of my expectations over the next 12 to 18 months. However, you're still in that kind of sweet spot where inflation can start rolling over, rates can start coming down, the economy can still seem like it's holding its own. And during that period, I think you're going to see, particularly with Iran becoming, you know, something that gets taken off the table, you're going to see, I think, the momentum of the tape, the momentum of the market pull more and more people in as they start talking about the Fed. [00:11:32] Gary Bohm: That's my previous question. [00:11:34] David Hunter: If that has a win, then it's back. You know, if, in fact, inflation comes down because of oil, if, in fact, the economy holds together enough to believe that it's still intact, all of a sudden it's, yeah, we've got a win that are back. And we've been, we've been so skeptical and defensive, we've got to get back on board. So I think there's, the thing is, I think that can happen for a few months. And in a few months, you can get very concentrated buying that can push this thing up sharply. My current target on the S&P is 10,000. So I'm way beyond anybody else's expectation. [00:12:09] Gary Bohm: And that's in what time frame? [00:12:12] David Hunter: This year, for sure. And it could be by, you know, it could be by the end of the summer or beginning of fall. [00:12:19] Gary Bohm: Okay. How high do you expect the rest of the indexes to go in the markets, the metals, the miners, et cetera? [00:12:29] David Hunter: Yeah, just to fill out the indexes for the equities, I've got a 36,000 target on the NASDAQ, a 67,000 target on the Dow, a 4,000 target on the Russell 2000. So if you do the math on those, I think they all come out somewhere close to 30%. You know, we're moving, it's a moving target now, so I'm not sure if we've gone below that. But they were, when I did them a couple weeks ago, they were like 35%, 33 to 38% away from current prices then. So we've come in, you know, up from there, so somewhere around 30% upside from here that could happen in a few months. My metals targets are, and I raised those as well back in early June, 200 for silver and 7,000 for gold. I think, you know, we had that huge run-up in January, you know, December, January, into that top, and we've spent the last several months consolidating that in several steps. I think the lows we saw last week or whenever it was, I guess it was last week, those should be your lows for this period. And we come out of that, for that whole consolidation, we come out of that, and I think come out of it in a very steep way this summer and into the fall. [00:13:57] Gary Bohm: And where do you see the miners in that? [00:14:00] David Hunter: Miners should outperform the metal. Medals, those are big runs. You know, if you do the math, you're talking about, you know, more than a double on silver and a big run-up on gold. I think the miners will outperform that. So I've got targets on SILJ of 90, SIL of 220. My target on GDX is 180, I believe. And my target on GDXJ is 250. So, again, if you do the numbers for the gold miners, it's well over a double, I think. And for the silver, it's a triple or more. So big moves, I think, are coming in the metals. Again, people, because of that several-month consolidation, it took, you know, there was a lot of speculation and a lot of excitement about them and the momentum. When, you know, after several months of going the other way, it's really hit a lot of people hard in there. And I think now you've got that wall of worry back in there or skepticism where it can overcome that and run pretty hot. [00:15:13] Gary Bohm: So there's an analysis out there. I don't know if you've seen this. It's by a reputable portfolio management company. It shows the AI cycle overlaid over the dot-com cycle. And it shows that we're at right now at about a 1998 kind of equivalent towards the dot-com cycle. And it suggests that we still have actually as much as two years remaining for this melt-up. What's your read on that? Did you see that? [00:15:46] David Hunter: I didn't see it. I'm not big on overlays, but I get it. My sense is, and what I've said for a long time, is when we get to the top I'm calling for, you're going to have all kinds of narrative out there telling you that this thing has years to run, you know, at least two years to run, maybe three years to run, that the Fed's just beginning an easing cycle, et cetera, et cetera, that AI is in its infancy. Those are the narratives that I think are going to make it hard to get out at the top because it's going to be convincing. So I view that kind of view as fitting right into that. We're beginning, again, I think we're only months away from a top. So you need those kind of narratives, I think, to get us to where I'm calling for. And I would just say, you know, obviously dot-com and AI have similarities in terms of this big run-up, but they also have many differences. And, you know, the capital, the capital is required here. You get, you also get, and I'm not an AI expert by any means, but you also have had in this last, you know, six months, a rapid kind of transition into some adopting of AI in lots of companies. You are seeing productivity gains and all of that. And I think some of the easy transition took place pretty quickly, amazingly quickly. And so I'm not sure we're factoring in how we front-loaded a lot this time that, you know, we didn't with dot-com. Obviously, dot-com, it was a lot on the come that was going to take years and years to see uses for, you know, the dot-com. But here it's been amazingly amazing to watch how fast companies have adopted AI. And I think there may be a kind of a, you get that first surge and then you get kind of a leveling off. And yet you still have AI companies having to, you know, kind of compete with each other and jockey for who's, you know, who's got the market share, who's being adopted, who's not. I think so. There's a period, I think, in the next 12 to 18 months where they can actually lose their momentum to some extent, certainly from a market standpoint, lose their momentum. [00:18:07] Gary Bohm: As I mentioned earlier, David, we've seen oil begin to come down materially over the recent weeks and specifically in the last week or so as information about the war wrapping up is coming out from many parties in the Middle East, but also from Iran and the United States. How are you viewing oil right now? [00:18:27] David Hunter: Yeah, I think I was a bear on oil before the war. Obviously, I called it down to 60, it went to 55. You know, it had a run, if not for Iran, you might have stopped at short of 70, but, you know, it had a run that had a natural oversold run. And then Iran kicked in and it took it up to 120 or wherever it went. I think we've seen the high water mark for oil for the next couple of years, for sure. I believe that, and I said this, you know, some people are kind of getting it now, this week, but I said this when everybody was, there was a narrative out there that even if the straight open, you know, before the agreement, even if the straight open, there's all the inventories have been drawn down. There's going to take a long time to build back up that you could run oil to 150 or higher, even though the straight is opening, that it would be the opposite of what everybody's expecting. And I said, no, you're going to be amazed, you know, when that straight opens, because the U.S. did supply a lot of oil to help things going while the straight was closed. You're going to be amazed. The story is going to be a glut of oil. You know, not that you don't have to rebuild inventories, not that there isn't going to be a period of that. But I think oil's headed south. That doesn't mean it's going to be straight down. You could bounce to 80 and then down or bounce to high 70s and down. But I do believe we'll be back in the 60s this summer. And I believe if I'm right about a global bust, you could see $30 oil next year, probably more second half of next year, but sometime there. [00:20:07] Gary Bohm: OK, so investment in oil producing activities was underinvested by a reported as much as a billion dollars per day for the last several years. At what point here does this materially matter, making the oil sector a very attractive long term investment opportunity, not just from the pick and not just a pick and pop type thing, you know, from or something that's temporary like a war? [00:20:35] David Hunter: Yep, I think I think oil and oil, the oil sector as an investment. I think that story is over for this cycle. Again, I think the cycle is ending this year, so that's not very far because of the bust. All commodities are getting hit hard, oil particularly hard. I think we're seeing demand destruction. You know, that's one of the reasons why oil was so weak prior to the conflict. And then you get a bust where, you know, something like 2000, akin to 2008, 9, demand, you know, global demand falls like a rock. That's why you can get oil down to 30. But the response to that bust from a from a policymaker standpoint is going to be massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, the likes of which we've never seen, because, like I said, leverage is far bigger than ever before. And it's going to lead to a free falling financial system. So even though you could ask any central banker today and they'd say this, you know, we'll never do that again. We aren't going to repeat our mistakes of the post 2008, 9 period or the 2020 period. You're not going to do QE infinity. You're not going to do zero interest rate policy. You can say all that. But when you're faced with a free falling financial system and a global economy that's going bust, you will see that they will have no choice. I'm predicting that we will see something like 20 trillion out of the Fed in new QE, you know, something similar or certainly big amounts coming from the Treasury in terms of issuance of new debt. So you could see, you know, 50 trillion or more worldwide in new money. And certainly you could see global debt, which is 330 trillion today, go to something close to 500 trillion. And so the post-bust period, and I think a bust will, because of that printing press, the bust won't last longer than 12 to 18 months. So by 2028, you could, you know, certainly second half of 2028, you could be on your way in a new recovery cycle that will fast go from, and I think that bust will be deflationary because we'll be entering it with low inflation and then, you know, going down from there. So we'll come out of a deflationary bus, first year will probably be very low single-digit inflation, second year, high single-digit. By the third year, you could be in double-digit inflation on your way to 25% inflation, you know, six or seven years out. So, and what is that? It's going to be a lot of, when you print that much money and expand a global economy with that much liquidity and have a, you know, a commodity-driven cycle, because there's going to be a lot of reshoring, a lot of, you know, the AI build-out is going to continue, et cetera, a lot of building up the electric grid, et cetera. So, you're going to see it's going to be a very commodity-driven cycle. We really haven't had that since the late 70s and early 80s. So it'll be returned to that. I think oil could go from $30 to $500 in a matter of, you know, six or seven years. You're right, we have underinvested in all commodities, but particularly in energy, and that's what you're going to go from, is you're going to go from this glut of oil, where, you know, we went for years with just-in-time inventories and, you know, not wanting to get ahead of ourselves. All of a sudden, when you boost demand because of this massive money print and fiscal expansion, when you boost worldwide demand for commodities because of that, you know, the demand can go through the roof in a few years. The supply takes decades to catch up. So you're going to have a period in the late this decade, early next, where you're going to have demand far outstripping supply in many commodities, pushing prices through the roof. And that includes copper. Copper could be, you know, I quote the, you know, the futures numbers where I have a forecast of $8 for this year. You know, that could be $20 and up. Natural gas could go from, you know, $3 to $50, you know, oil from $30 to $500, you know, steel will go through the roof, et cetera. You're going to see something we have not seen in 50 years, 45, 50 years, in terms of commodity demand far outstripping their ability to supply it. And there's no real quick solution for that. [00:25:23] Gary Bohm: Well, that balance sheet expansion, that historic balance sheet expansion that you're talking about, is going to turn out to be Kevin Warsh's nightmare when he wants to reduce the balance sheet. [00:25:37] David Hunter: Yeah, that's why I say macro will trump his plans. You know, it's no pun intended. But the macro, as I say, we're at, I view it as we're at the, in the final decade of a super cycle, I define the super cycle as the period between two depressions, the 1930s being the last depression, I think the mid-2030s being the next one. So this bust I'm talking about may sound like a depression, but it's going to be short because of the money, because we have a printing press. And it's not, it's a precursor. It's not the depression. But if you take it to its normal extension, you're right. I mean, you're going to have rates, you know, interest rates track inflation. So if you're going to have double digit inflation and moving towards 20 or 25 percent inflation, you're going to have T-bills up there at those levels. And you're going to have the long bond that, you know, in 1980, it peaked out at 15. This time probably peaks out closer to 20. You can't solve that equation. We can't balance, we can't service our debt at 5 percent with what we have now. If that debt goes up, you know, 50 percent from here and interest rates go up from 5 to 20, there is no equation. We're lights out, basically. And that's why I call it the end of a super cycle. You know, we're in the final decade. Sometime in the early to mid-30s, the Fed's probably out of the picture before the end of this decade, but certainly early next decade. That means you have no printing press. You have no solution because the only thing that's kept us going is constantly monetizing things, right? We keep putting out more money. But the problem in a hyperinflationary period is you're pouring gasoline on a fire that's roaring. You can't do it. You know, the inflation will rise faster than you can pump money. You know, so you're basically it's a negative effect. And so you'll be stuck with we don't have the wherewithal to service our debt, which means, and I speak of it in terms of the U.S., but it's basically a worldwide story. I call it the end of the Ponzi scheme that started post-World War II. And basically, you know, every successive cycle or almost every successive cycle, we've had, you know, things go to greater excesses, meaning inflation and debt, etc., requiring bigger tightenings, taking us, you know, overshooting, taking us to a bigger depth where they had to crank it back out to get us out of it. And it's like a buggy whip where the thing gets more volatile each time you're at the end of that, where it just gets out of control and there's nothing you can do about it. It's basically the end. You know, and so it's the end of a Ponzi scheme, you know, where you just find out there's nothing there. [00:28:46] Gary Bohm: Okay, so leaving that ending part aside, because that's still kind of far out and it's hard to know, you know, if that can come to fruition. But your bus scenario, you know, we've seen that play out multiple times in history. What is life like? You know, is unemployment, you know, zooming higher or foreclosures? Are we seeing, you know, a blend of 2008, 2000 and maybe the melees of the 70s? Take us through what you see in that bus period. [00:29:24] David Hunter: Yeah, I call 2008 on steroids. And again, it's hard to see it right now. So, you know, I can be wrong. But my whole thesis is basically you've got a combination of debt. I mean, I can't state it enough. Debt is so far beyond what it was in 2008. We were highly leveraged in 2008, which is what got us 2008-9. We're so far beyond that now, and obviously just looking at the Fed balance sheet, for example, it was $875 billion going into October 2008. You know, it got up to $9 trillion in the pandemic and it's back down to, you know, $6 trillion or $7 trillion. But, you know, we're so far beyond. You look at, you know, global debt, obviously, is so much beyond. But our, you know, our government debt keeps growing day by day by, you know, we're crossing trillions like it used to be millions. So leverage, again, around the world is so much higher. And a lot of the sovereign, and I'm not expecting this cycle of sovereign to go under because of the printing press. But still, there's an awful lot of debt other than sovereign. And when I talk about leverage, I'm also talking about derivatives. As I say, debt is the leverage on the economy and the financial system. Derivatives are the leverage on the markets. And we obviously know there's so much more in derivative exposure out there than ever before. And that enhances on the way up. But, boy, does that take things down fast on the way down. And so, you know, we saw how fast we went from everything being okay to not okay in 2020. We saw, you know, October of 2008 to March of 2009 how fast things unwound. I think this one's going to be at least that fast and probably steeper. And people go, well, you know, the Fed won't let that happen or the central banks won't let that happen. I go, it's actually because of 2008 and 2020 that they're reluctant to go back there again. They've, you know, Powell stated it many times that we're not going to repeat the mistakes of the past. We're not going to do QE infinity ever again. And I'm sure Warsh has similar feelings. He wants to shrink the balance sheet. So what that means is they're going to be slow to react. They're going to be reluctant to react until things really get to a crisis. And by then it's so late that they have to come in with both feet. So it's not that they won't ease early, but it's getting to a right-sized policy. If you're going to have something very outsized, you have to do more than ever before. And their mindset is to do much less than ever before. So it's a bad combination. So what that looks like from an economic standpoint, I would guess we'll see double-digit unemployment. You know, we've got a situation in this country where, you know, there's a shortage of labor in some ways and skilled labor for sure. So I don't think it's one of those things where you're going to shoot up to 20%, like 2020, that kind of thing. But we could get to double digits, and that'll be very painful. You know, the economy, I don't think it's GDP so much that I don't have a number whether it's going to be, you know, down. I don't think it'll be double-digit down, although we could have a quarter like that. It's more the financial system that I think is going to be under the gun. You know, we've got pension funds loaded with private equity and private debt, you know, private credit, because they thought, well, that doesn't give you a- [00:33:04] Gary Bohm: Instead of a bailout, do they do a bail-in? [00:33:08] David Hunter: I think what you'll see in terms of the banks, I think you'll see the FDIC will be funded, whatever it needs to be funded, to cover their insurance liability. Beyond that $250 liability, I doubt in this country you'll see bail-ins. You know, I'm guessing that all that money that's being printed, all that money created by the Treasury, they'll be using it in every creative way they can to keep consumers alive, you know, keep everybody afloat. So, in this country, I don't think we'll see bail-ins. Certainly, there's a precedent for it in Europe, so you could see it over there, as I tell people. [00:33:49] Gary Bohm: Are you looking at a 2000 NASDAQ-style, you know, 80% drop for this bus period? Are you looking at a 50% drop like we saw in 2008? What is your expectation for the markets? [00:34:06] David Hunter: I believe we could see something along the lines of 80% across, not just the NASDAQ this time, but across the markets. And I have people, when I say that, people will go, well, what do you think will drop more? I go, if the market, if the broad market is down to 80%, you don't have to pick one. You know, it's going to be across the board. [00:34:24] Gary Bohm: Well, and especially when you have, you know, the MAG-10 or whatever you want to call them these days, in every single mutual fund across all, it doesn't even matter anymore. But what about the metals, gold and silver? If gold gets up to, what's your number, 7,000? 7,000. So what does it do in the bus? Does it crater 50%? [00:34:45] David Hunter: I think you could see that much, you know, somewhere between, I'd say, 40 and 50 is likely. [00:34:51] Gary Bohm: More for silver? [00:34:53] David Hunter: Silver, I'd say, because it's so economic and much more volatile, you could see that 70 or 80 is not impossible. [00:35:02] Gary Bohm: So that would be 200 down to, you know, 50 to 75 range? [00:35:07] David Hunter: Yeah, and what I tell people is I'm more comfortable talking percentages because, as you, I'm sure, well know, there are people out there like Michael Oliver talking about a $300 to $500 silver price this summer or, you know, this year. And I can't get there with my work, but I don't think he's crazy. I mean, I think he's got reasons for it. And we're in a very historic period. So I wouldn't rule it out. So rather than pick a number, you know, my 200 is my best guess of where we're going, but that doesn't mean it can't shoot right through that. So I, but more importantly, percentage wise, I think wherever we go, you're going to see those kind of numbers on the downside. [00:35:51] Gary Bohm: What, David, what kind of macro backdrop and conditions need to occur where your thesis would become invalidated by yourself, where you say, you know what, this melt up slash bust thesis, I'm changing it because I'm seeing a massive change take place. [00:36:08] David Hunter: Yeah, yeah, for sure. A lot of my thesis is the, the leverage. And, um, as I say, fragility, there's still fragility in the economy, uh, from the pandemic, you know, underlying this economy, there are haves and have nots, not just consumers, but businesses. So a lot of them are kind of getting by, but not strong. Um, so there's, uh, I kind of do a formula of fragility plus leverage, uh, plus fed policy error or central bank policy error where they're, um, they're not recognizing how weak things are underneath. And so they're not, you know, they're still worried about inflation. So they're not easing or Kevin's, uh, Kevin's, uh, pulling, trying to pull money out of the system to normalize the balance sheet when we really need them to go the other way. Those three things in combination is how I think we get a bust from a, you know, looking at it from a top down standpoint, how it looks, you know, what triggers it is hard to say. [00:37:08] Gary Bohm: Well, what I'm saying is, is what would invalidate that? What would make you change course and say, you know what? I've changed my perspective. I no longer think we're in a melt up slash bust, uh, situation. [00:37:20] David Hunter: Yeah. You, if, if the fed reacted sooner, if the central banks reacted sooner to, uh, economic softness, um, and if, you know, if inflation was down enough that they felt they could react more, um, they might be able to head it off. We might only have a, you know, a lesser recession and they might be able to head off the leveraged unwind that happens very quickly if they, if they misstep. So it's really that I think that if you see the fed not misstepping, um, and, and reacting pretty quickly, um, then you might be able to head it off. And again, you'd have to see it overseas too. Um, cause I think the real more vulnerable places this time in the banking system, you know, the U S obviously got some religion in 2008, nine cleaned up the bank's balance sheets. And so it's, it's more, you know, Canada's repeating our mistakes. They weren't leveraged back in 2009. Now they're much more leveraged, you know, obviously China's a wild card. Japan's a real wild card, um, in terms of inflation breaks out there. They're so, you know, they've, they've monetized their situation so much and Europe, I still think Europe's banks are more vulnerable. So I think this could be triggered more from overseas, but I think it's going to be worldwide and we will certainly be a big part of it. [00:38:43] Gary Bohm: All right. Well, this has been a wonderful conversation, uh, with David Hunter. I just want to welcome everyone who's tuning in before we wrap up here. I want to direct everyone who's interested in the metals and mining sector to dive into our sub stack and metals and miners.substack.com. When you join the quickly growing community, you're going to receive a free gift. It's a report. It's titled, if you don't own gold, you know, neither history nor economics. That's a famous quote by investing legend, Ray Dalio. And that's the name of the report you'll receive. I'm positive. You've been enjoying the conversation David and I have been having, please let them know, hit the like, and subscribe button and leave a comment below the video. All right, David, as we wrap up here, would you share a key takeaway that you want the viewers to keep in mind and then let everybody know where they can learn all about your work and how they can connect with you? [00:39:33] David Hunter: Yeah, I would just say there's going to be a lot of, I think, emotional pull to, as this thing moves along, if it does do what I think, which is go parabolic here. And I think we're in that parabolic as of this last month. If it does continue to build on itself and go parabolic here, just fight your emotions. Understand that, you know, the steeper it gets, the closer you are getting to the end. It doesn't mean react right away because I think there is some good money on the table here. You know, 30 percent ish type in, you know, the market, maybe 50 percent plus in financials and some of the laggards, you know, commodities. But just know we we likely come to an end this year in this big cycle. And and that, you know, preserving your capital is going to be important for coming out the other side of the the the bust I see coming. [00:40:34] Gary Bohm: All right. And let everybody know how they can connect with you, where they can find you. [00:40:39] David Hunter: I'm sure I'm on X pretty much every day. Most of it is replies to people. I don't do very many original tweets. And when I do, I get hit with bombardment of of responses. So it's easier for me to just do replies and hope that people see the replies. I've got, you know, three hundred twenty five or three hundred fifty, I think thousand followers now. So, you know, you can see me there responding to people. And then I also put out a macro letter quarterly that is by subscription. And if people are interested, send me a direct message on on X. You know, the the new what do they call their new message? [00:41:31] Gary Bohm: Direct messaging system. Yeah. [00:41:32] David Hunter: Yeah. The direct messaging system there. And and I reply with kind of details for the subscription. [00:41:39] Gary Bohm: Fantastic. I will have all that information up on the screen and everybody who's tuning in, head over to the description area. You'll find some links there to get over to David. David, thanks for coming back on to Metals and Miners for being so generous with your time and ideas. It's always fun to spend the time with you. I look forward to having you back on sometime soon and everybody else who's tuning in. Thanks for watching. [00:42:02] David Hunter: Thanks. [00:42:07] Gary Bohm: I want to direct everyone who's interested in the metals and mining sector to dive into our sub stack and metals and miners dot sub stack dot com. When you join the quickly growing community, you're going to receive a free gift. It's a report. It's titled. If you don't own gold, you know, neither history nor economics. That's a famous quote by investing legend Ray Dalio. And that's the name of the report you'll receive. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. [00:42:37] Speaker ?: We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time.