CRITICAL WEEK FOR THE STOCK MARKET (07/13) Stock Market Analysis

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Blue cloud trading through the night. Welcome back to the channel, everyone. In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips from today's episode of the Halftime Report. I'm going to pull up the charts and dive into the technicals of some of the mentioned stocks. We're going to look at the key support, resistance levels, momentum, and see if the price action actually backs up what the talking heads are saying. Hit that like button, subscribe if you haven't already, and let's roll the tape on the first clip. [00:00:32] Scott Wapner: Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner, front and center this hour, this critical week for the markets. Earnings are kicking off. Semis under more pressure again. Apple trading at an all-time high, and there's much more going on too. Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jim Laventhal, Surat, C.T. I'll show you what we're doing on this Monday with the majors. We are in the red. A number of headlines today, as we said. Apple hitting a new all-time high, happened mid-morning. Oil moving higher on those Iran tensions. SK Hynix is down sharply. The Korean market was down as well. Chair Warsh is on the hill tomorrow. Earnings are kicking off. We've got a big week. We really headline it, though, with this Apple move. You know, it's this new intraday high, the first since June. It shows you the move that this thing has been on. It's a little below that level now. It got up to about 320, I think, was the number. 323. You remember, Josh, last week, said it's going to 400. Hope so. You own the name. You've been – it's probably – it's probably been at the top of your list for something that you've been focused on more than anything else. And buying more recently than anything else, too, consistently. [00:01:41] Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a tactical trade, and I've been buying the breakouts when I see them last doing so on Thursday, somewhere around $310. I'm going to sit back here and not buy further. I see the near-term momentum as a little bit stretched. That doesn't defeat where I think the long-term target is, where Apple continues to be one of the leaders as it relates to the Mag 7. I think Apple and NVIDIA is benefiting from a little internal rotation, maybe away from memory and semiconductors. I think that's what's unfolding right now. And I think collectively, the market continues to exhibit this game of rotation amongst sectors and sub-industries to the benefit of the overall index itself. But as it relates to Apple, steady as she goes moving forward, sit back, let it take a breath here, because we've had very strong momentum. And then after earnings, I'd be interested in buying more. [00:02:38] Scott Wapner: Surat, optimism continues to bloom in this name. Target 365 at Citi. I told you that Josh Brown, $400 of last week. They sue OpenAI. That news comes out Friday after the close. What do you make of the run that this name has had? You can pull the chart back, guys. Look at it over. Yeah, there it is. Look at that. [00:02:58] Speaker 4: Like, you know, year to... [00:03:00] Scott Wapner: It just had a great move after so many wanted to criticize this company for being behind the curve on AI, which, of course, they were. There's no saying that they were not. But now a belief that they're going to get it right, and it's going to lead to a really robust upgrade cycle, along with some of the new products they have coming out, whether it's the foldable phone or otherwise. You're underpinned by a robust buyback. Even in a period of CEO transition, this stock has looked beyond that, and it has looked through any bit of uncertainty in ways that other companies might not have exhibited in the stock market. You tell me that someone like Tim Cook is going to be leaving in his role as CEO, and then the stock is going to hit new all-time highs a few months later. I think some people would have said, well, I'm not sure. [00:04:03] Speaker 5: Yeah. And add to that that they've basically said we're raising prices, right? I mean, companies that were raising prices, demand's going to be strong. And I think, Scott, one of the things that when you look at the Fab 7 or the other stocks, they're all spending money to grow and going to have negative cash flow. While Apple's still got positive cash flow, we'll have support for the stock, and the demand for their products is still increasing. So it's like a safe ship in a storm right now where you can kind of… [00:04:30] Scott Wapner: A spending storm? [00:04:31] Speaker 5: Yeah, in a spending storm where they can actually say, our shares are too undervalued. We'll buy them back, or we'll actually do something to grow. And I think investors are looking for that and also looking for the lack of volatility when you can buy an Apple that's proven over cycles that they can innovate. And I think as AI comes to them, as opposed to them going to AI, this is a stock that investors want to hold on to as opposed to kind of taking profits from the others. [00:04:56] Scott Wapner: Okay. So how do we view the mega caps today? This nice move they've had, money coming out of semis, it's found a place in a lot of the mega caps, right? Meta had this massive move last week. It's down a little bit today. Put Nvidia in a separate category. It's not, you know, thought of as the hyperscaler. The hyperscalers are spending on Nvidia. Amazon's green. Microsoft is green. What do you think? [00:05:22] Speaker 6: I'm going to bring together two thoughts that we had last week, Scott. One is a lot of these mega cap tech stocks are frankly trading at value territory. I could look at Meta. I could look at Microsoft as two examples of that. And I think this is a time that you have to stay true to your knitting. That's the second thought. These rotations, and Joe, you've been all over them for weeks and weeks. These rotations have been coming fast and furious. From semis to software, from large cap to small cap, from the market cap weighted ETFs to the equally weighted ETFs. Pick your style of investing and stick with it. And I do think this is a time when many styles can work. So somebody who's more, I'm going to say price aware as opposed to price sensitive like myself, I can find plenty of bargains out there. And the thing that I have to do, though, is I have to hold them through whatever the volatility is that on a day-to-day basis comes up in terms of the rotation. So if, just as an example, I've bought Micron over the past three weeks, and today I'm not looking right at the second, but it was down about 5% earlier this morning. I'm not thinking of getting out of that. I'm not paying too much attention to today's downturn. We've got Taiwan Semi coming up in terms of earnings at the end of the week. That'll be the first look at near-term earnings for the semi space. And I think Micron's going to do fine over the intermediate to long term. My style of investing is not to get too wrapped up in day-to-day rotation. [00:06:39] Scott Wapner: I don't know, you put your face right in the middle of the volatility on that one. You know what I'm saying? Kind of. [00:06:45] Speaker 6: You ever know me to shy away? No. Yeah. No. That's what endears me to you, I think. [00:06:51] Scott Wapner: But really, rather than just sort of taking a back seat and saying, you know, this thing's gotten a little too volatile, the willingness, if not ability, to sort of double down on your position, which I think you basically did. I did. Even in the face of that, volatility is noteworthy. [00:07:10] Speaker 6: Well, and also fundamental investors. So one of the things I've said to you, Scott, I've said to our viewers is, I think it's important that pretty soon there's going to be an anniversary of the CHIPS Act, after which Micron can start to return capital to shareholders. I like that. [00:07:23] Speaker 4: That's something that I look for. In companies that I own. [00:07:46] Speaker 6: So that sort of fundamental bait, if you will, has me nibbling at it, although now it's about a 3% position, so it's more than a nibble. I do think that, look, if you're a momentum investor, Joe, you're fabulous at it, fine. There are opportunities here, and what you've done with Apple has been nothing short of genius. [00:08:03] Scott Wapner: I'm going to patronize it, but go ahead. [00:08:04] Speaker 6: What? [00:08:05] Scott Wapner: I said don't patronize it, just go ahead. [00:08:07] Speaker 6: Joe and I are friends, I'm not patronizing it, I'll tell him I think he's wrong. Go ahead. No, but I'm going to go back to what I said. Stick to your style of investing. If you're a fundamental investor, if you're price aware, maybe a GARP investor. [00:08:33] Speaker 4: Investor, a value investor, there's plenty of opportunities out there. [00:08:35] Speaker 6: I'm looking at, Stephanie, your meta. I mean, how could I not be looking at your meta right now? [00:08:39] Scott Wapner: Should be looking at her for the NVIDIA, which is the newest buy, which was the move that was so noteworthy right last week for us. [00:08:49] Speaker 7: Yeah, because I've never owned it before, and I just think the valuation has gotten so attractive at 18 times forward estimates, and the company is going to grow revenues something like 80% in mid-70s gross margins. Free cash flow is going to double, so I'm looking for opportunities where either I have positions and I have more conviction because the valuations have come down to your point, Jimmy. I added to Amazon, too. The one I'm not adding to is meta because it's a bit frustrating, but I'm not going to sell out of it completely. I do recognize it's very cheap, but they have to show better monetization for that stock to really take off. And I think they eventually will, Scott, but that's a timing kind of thing. I think there's more upside in Amazon. I think there is more upside in NVIDIA, and I have a lot of other technology stocks that I like, too. [00:09:33] Scott Wapner: What was the NVIDIA stat that the valuation was like the cheapest? It's been seven years. It was like seven years or something like that, right? [00:09:38] Speaker 7: Yeah. I mean, and this is a company that has 97% of the GPU market. Okay, fine. They're getting more competition, but that's not going to go to below 90, and I think this company has proprietary software that actually also is really hard to replicate as well. So I think there's a lot of ways you can win with this one, and I just think it's really out of favor right now, and that is very interesting to me. I know the chart looks horrible, but it's really interesting to me that it's kind of found its footing around these levels. [00:10:05] Scott Wapner: It's up 3.5% month to date, and it still is, to your point, 12% off of its 52-week high. [00:10:12] Speaker 4: It speaks to the... [00:10:22] Scott Wapner: This thing's kind of gone nowhere, but it's had a nice little pickup with the other mega caps. [00:10:29] Speaker 3: So it's actually, if you're looking at it, just predicated solely on price. We understand the strong fundamentals about the company, but now you have what's known as a return to accumulation, and you're seeing that after sitting sideways for a multi-month period, and the beginnings of the return to accumulation, rather, are unfolding. I still think that Apple has the capability to be the all-star in 2026, and one of the reasons is, Scott, if we could show it again from last week, we showed that analyst chart, just how low the expectations are, and the 12-month average price target for Apple... [00:11:04] Scott Wapner: Why are you asking me if we could show it again? [00:11:06] Speaker 3: The 12-month price target for Apple today... [00:11:08] Scott Wapner: Ask our fabulous production team in the control room. Thank you for doing so. Can we show that again, please? So we are... [00:11:14] Speaker 3: We are sitting at now $320 for a 12-month price target for Apple, relative to all the generous price targets that we see for the Amazon, the NVIDIA, the Alphabet, and only a 61% buy rating. So the analyst community has this embedded skepticism, which is remarkable to me, about Apple and their ability to actually embrace and execute on some form of tangible AI strategy. [00:11:42] Scott Wapner: I think they're torn on the growth rate relative to now what is a more expensive valuation. [00:11:48] Speaker 5: It's a P to growth rate for Apple, which we've had for the last many, many years. And what does Apple do? They'll come back and buy shares, or they'll innovate. Now they're raising prices, right? The negative on Apple was how much of it can you keep on raising prices. Well, now they just said we're going to raise prices. We're going to see what the elasticity of that is. But to your point also, it's the same thing with NVIDIA and Apple. It's having the same story. People don't believe that they're going to keep on growing. And to Stephanie's point, it has now shrunk to a P level that we will see now what are they going to do in terms of execution of earnings as the P will shrink even more if earnings keep on going higher, kind of like what happened to the semiconductor memory stocks. The difference between an NVIDIA and an Apple and memory stocks is you get to reinvest into R&D, which is you're forward-looking, right? The memory stocks, as we know, and Jim and I are very familiar with cyclical stocks, and you look at commodities, whether it's a Freeport or a Micron, is we know the supply is not catching up, right? I mean, it's just that's the story. [00:12:50] Speaker 6: I do think we have to address the news from late Friday, the OpenAI lawsuit. And because there's two ways to look at it. And the first is one that I don't agree with, which is that Apple is in some way fearful of OpenAI and some way encroaching on the iPhone with whatever device product they may come up with. That's something that's been put out there. I've read that in the media over the past couple of days. I don't believe that at all. I think this lawsuit is just routine protection of intellectual property. If you're in business, you're not going to let somebody encroach in any way whatsoever. But I don't think it's from a position of fear. [00:13:19] Scott Wapner: It's not just the somebody. I mean, you realize who left and who went. [00:13:24] Speaker 6: I do realize that the product manager, what is it, Tam Tang is his name? [00:13:29] Scott Wapner: No, I'm talking about Johnny Ott. [00:13:30] Speaker 6: Okay. Sorry about you. But he's not just a somebody or an anybody. I do realize that. He's the body. I got you, Scotty. I got you. But I'm going to... What are you saying? What I'm saying is I don't think this is a position where Apple is in some way fearful because this was talked about. I was reading this a lot over the weekend that people were comparing this to when Tim Cook went after Android models coming out of Samsung because that was somehow a real threat that they perceived at the time to the iPhone. That's the comparison that's being made here. I'm saying I don't think that at all. I don't think Apple's in any way afraid of open AI. [00:14:04] Scott Wapner: You don't think Steve Jobs' protege, if you want to put Johnny Ive as that, characterize him as that, going to open AI and then other people sort of following suit with rumors of a hardware product, you don't think is a potential threat to what Tim Cook thinks is the foundation of his company as he's about to take a step aside? This is almost a protect this house move. [00:14:33] Speaker 6: But yeah, so my comment back to you is I don't think it's that dramatic. Do I think it's a threat? Of course it's a threat. And anybody who's in business is always evaluating competitive threats. But I don't think Apple woke up one day and said, oh my God, what are we going to do about this? I think this is just routine protection of intellectual property. There's these stories about, hey, you know, they had interviews with candidates and they told them to bring a particular hardware to take a look at. That seems like just business as usual in terms of interviewing in the Valley. So look, it makes for a splashy headline. But what I'm saying is I don't think Apple's looking at that as an existential threat at all. There's a long road to hoe to get to the position where iPhone is reasonably threatened by another competition. [00:15:17] Scott Wapner: I've made my case. I'm going to stop. I'm going to stop arguing what I think is the obvious, but it's OK. [00:15:24] Speaker 3: It is a critical, almost founding member of the Apple franchise, Johnny Ives. So that in itself, you have to say, is somewhat disturbing. I agree with Jim from the standpoint of there have been others we're still waiting for. Remember, I think it was in 2014 we were getting the Facebook phone that was coming. So there are others that have said, OK, we are going to challenge Apple with some form of hardware. But it is relevant news for sure. I don't think you could dismiss the news, Jimmy, because Johnny Ives, that is a significant founding member of that franchise. [00:16:02] Speaker 6: I don't want to give you the wrong impression. I'm not dismissing it. I'm putting it in its place. And you know what else is also putting it in its place is the Apple share price today. All right. The Apple share price is saying we're not too worried about this. [00:16:14] Scott Wapner: OK, well, let's move on, because I didn't want to I didn't want to spend a whole lot of time discussing something that moved on Friday after the close that, you know, whatever. The move in memory. OK, see you. You might as well start drinking the next one, because I'm on my way back. The move in memory and what's what's happened in semiconductors. We what do we do with this trade now? What do we do with it? Well, I mean, I just sit in sidelines and say, I'm going to let all this play out. [00:16:53] Speaker 7: Kind of. I mean, I think you want to have exposure to semiconductors. Obviously, I just bought one and I hold my own Marvell. I have been trimming Marvell because it's up a whole lot, but I still like it very much. [00:17:05] Speaker 4: Broadcom, I think they have $20 in earnings power. So I think there are places within semis, but they kind of trade as a whole right now. [00:17:29] Speaker 7: And it's every other day, it's either semis are winning or software is winning. It's crazy. So I think you have to take a barbell approach and own both and have, you know, a lot of conviction in the ones that you own. And then on these ugly days, maybe add to. I will continue to add to Nvidia if we still see, you know, the semi trade on wine. [00:17:48] Scott Wapner: Certainly not nearly as volatile as these others. And the problem, as we've said multiple times, too, is the idea of, well, if it dips, then add to it. It's been it's driven people crazy. What's down is then up. What's up is then down. It's made you feel foolish for doing stuff at both ends of that spectrum. [00:18:08] Speaker 7: 100 percent. But capacity is going up fourfold. And so this story is not changing anytime soon. It's going fourfold we're going to see between now and 2028. And when we see that all of these hyperscalers and the CapEx keeps going higher and inching higher, it's going to continue, Scott. And I think I think I'm on record saying this year we're going to see 800 billion from spend off from the hyperscalers. I think next year it could be easily 1.6 trillion. One analyst today went to 1.2. [00:18:35] Scott Wapner: Yeah, it was Morgan Stanley said they're going about 1.2 to 1.4 trillion in 27 and 28. They're raising their CapEx expectations for both Meta and Amazon. To your point, this spending is not going anywhere but up. [00:18:52] Speaker 7: No. And last week we talked about how at Meta that there was a rumor that they are going to go spend 200 billion. So now now it's 250 billion. I mean, the numbers are crazy and it kind of makes my head spin. But at the end of the day, I know why they're spending. And again, it's this capacity increase. It's the whole data center rollout and it's not going away. And eventually these companies are going to see a return on their investments. It's not going to be this year materially, which is why I haven't really been adding to Meta. But I do think Amazon is in a much better position of strength with a lot of their various different businesses, advertising, compute, retail, AWS. And the valuation makes a lot of sense to me. So that's the one of the hyperscalers that I would be buying more of. [00:19:35] Scott Wapner: Sirat, we're not going to get hyperscaler earnings for a couple of weeks, right? We're going to kick things off tomorrow with the banks. We already know, because we've said it so many times, that earnings growth is going to be robust, to say the least, okay? 24.5% is what is predicted today. Those estimates have been rising. Ed Yardeni says great earnings, great expectations are going to lead to even greater stock prices. Evercore today says 77.50 by year end because they raised their earnings estimates. Savita Subramanian, Bank of America, says it's more than just a mega cap story. Earnings momentum is likely to continue. I think everybody is building their own bull case based on the same bit of information, earnings. [00:20:20] Speaker 5: Yeah. And we're going to get the earnings in the next week in terms of the financials. And look, we're coming into this quarter stronger than we have in previous quarters. So the question is going to be as expectations ahead, or are we going to see the Morgan Stanley, J.P.'s, and Goldman say things are steadily improving, not just in capital markets, M&A, wealth management, but we're seeing our backlog improving. And I think that will provide a floor and, in fact, could help the price appreciation of a lot of these financials. [00:20:48] Scott Wapner: Well, Citi upgrades the financials now to overweight. Sector, by the way, is in the top two performers over the last month. Health care is the other one that's done quite well over a month. 25%, 5.1% for health care, 4.8% for the banks. That shows you what these stocks have done. [00:21:06] Speaker 7: I think the banks are a buy. And they always trade crummy around earnings. And so you make your shopping list of which ones you want to buy because they are up a lot into the print. But net interest income is expected to grow 9%. Loan growth of 7% to 8%. Deposit 7%. And then we get to fees. Fees galore. And we're going to see 26% in investment banking with a plus sign next to that. We also are going to see M&A at 9%. You have global M&A is up 57% year to date. So these companies are all going to benefit. And, you know, Morgan and Goldman, they're the obvious plays. But I think you want – I'm looking at Wells Fargo. I don't own it anymore. But I'm looking at that because that has lagged. And if they can deliver tomorrow, I think that's certainly an interesting one because of the asset cap lift. This might be the worst quarter for NII. [00:21:54] Scott Wapner: This was at one point, honestly, this was your largest position, if I recall. Yes, it was. [00:21:58] Speaker 7: Yes, it was. [00:21:59] Scott Wapner: Now you don't even own it, any piece of it. [00:22:01] Speaker 7: Well, because the last two quarters were really disappointing. And I think that you're coming to the end of that now. The NII, I think, is probably bottoming in this quarter. And then you can actually see an acceleration. And the asset cap lift is a very big deal. That is going to lead to much better growth. And the stock is down, I think, about 6% on the year. So it's really lagged. So that's on my radar screen to add to. [00:22:22] Speaker 3: What do you think? The concern that I have – and I added J.P. Morgan over the last month. I added CBOE as well. I'm a little concerned, and Steph, you and I talked about this before the show, that the expectations have gone very quickly in literally a 30-day period from low expectations to now high expectations for the financials. [00:22:42] Speaker 7: Not all of them. [00:22:43] Speaker 3: Well, there's select names, as we discussed, like an Amex and a Capital One. Yes. [00:22:48] Speaker 7: But, I mean, even like Bank of America is only up 7. [00:22:50] Scott Wapner: Both got upgraded today, by the way. Yeah. Cap One to buy at HSBC. Underperformance looks overdone. Amex upgraded at J.P. Morgan to overweight. [00:22:58] Speaker 7: Capital One is trading at 7.5 times earnings. It's crazy. It's down 17% in the year, and this Discover transaction is going to be enormous for this company, and they're going to see something like $2.6 billion in synergies, which is totally not appreciated in the stock price. I don't own the Amex. You own the Amex, right? [00:23:14] Speaker 3: I own Amex. Amex has had a little bit of modest underperformance relative to the sector itself, so maybe the expectations, to your point, Steph, there that are embedded are not so high. So, I think Amex continues to work in an environment where we know the economy is really strong. We know the affluent consumer is out there spending. That's a name I think you can focus on. I'm just saying there is a lot of embedded good news in the money center banks, and without question, in the financial exchanges. [00:23:45] Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to the first segment of technical analysis for the stocks that they just discussed on the Halftime Report. We'll get into the second one in a few moments, second clip, and then I'll follow up with more technical analysis right after that. I hope you guys all had a good weekend. It's Monday, July 13th. Let's take a look and see what's going on. The market has already closed, and here's Apple. All right, it actually closed at 317.31. Now, an interesting thing about Apple today is that it crossed a level of resistance, the 317.40 level. If we look at these prior candles right there, it's based on the candle from June 12th, this candle right here. So price had dropped, found support at the 26th period, the red line, bounced off that, crossed it, actually piercing that level with that wick that you see right there, and then dropped, creating what's called a gravestone doji. Let me just remove that line so you can see it for a moment. There we go. That's a gravestone doji. Let me show you guys what that looks like on our cheat sheet pattern. All right, this is the bearish single candle pattern, and if we look real close here on the right, okay, it's after price moving up. You get that long wick. It doesn't even necessarily have to be a long wick. It could be just a short wick, but the actual body of the candle, right, like the opening and the closing price are around the same level. So that is a reversal candle. There's a higher probability that we're going to see price drop tomorrow in Apple, just based on that candle alone, and the fact that it reached a level of resistance, and that's a lot of times what will happen here, basically when price comes back to a level that it had touched before, the 317.40, and then reversed. Now look where it closed, 317.31, literally nine pennies under that level. So we'll see what happens tomorrow. The momentum overall is not super strong here. You can see that the ADX, the ADX9 is still dropping on Apple. But as far as everything else, okay, it does still look relatively bullish as far as the price being above the two moving averages, the 9 and the 26. It's above the Ichimoku cloud, CincoSpan A and CincoSpan B. They're both in the correct order. And then we've got the ChicoSpan here, the lagging line, which is the current price projected 26 periods ago. All right, that's above the candle, 26 periods ago. So that's bullish on the weekly chart. And let me show you guys the daily. Here's the daily chart. So this looks a little bit more like that example that I just showed you. The longer wick and the body, as you can see here, around the same opening and closing price. So that is something that we want to pay attention to. The ADX is still flat here, even on the daily chart. So just be cautious about that because this is, in fact, a reversal candle. All right, let's look at JP Morgan. JP Morgan on the daily chart. You can see this symmetrical triangle pattern that is formed here. Reached that high, that low, and now it's kind of stuck inside this triangle. The question is, will it be able to break to the upside or to the downside? If it breaks up to the upside, obviously, it's going to be very bullish. There's a higher probability that it actually will because the financial sector has been relatively strong compared to a lot of the other sectors. But right now, it's basically stagnant in this level. If you look at the weekly chart, all right, same thing. Just price movement has been stuck in this range for about four weeks in a row now. And price today was actually down 0.54%, as you can see. But it did hold up above that nine period. And then we've got XLF, the financials ETF. And that also had pulled back after reaching the 56.59 level, pulled back, found support right at the nine period, the green line there, popped up. And now it is just kind of, we're waiting to see what happens because it does need to break that 56.59. That level is based on these prior highs over here, okay? So you can see that price touched those levels, touched this level. It's a very important level that it needs to break through. All right. Now, the rest of these, so these are the three top, I would say, ticker symbols that make, have the most potential to move up. And I mean, they're still like at levels of resistance today. But compared to the other folks, they're much more bullish. I'm not going to spend too much time on the rest of these, but let's get through them quickly. Applied materials, the reason I'm not a big fan of this right now, as you can see here, it dropped under the nine period here back on July 1st. And basically, since that point, it's dropped around, let's see, 12.2%. All right. So that's a big drop right there. It's down four and a half percent today. It's still in a decline. All right. It looks like we're building a lower high right now for applied materials. There is the second high after the top right there. So there, if we can get, if we get under this level, that's a problem because then it will have a lower low as well. Actually, take it back. We already have a lower low. If you look at right here, we do have a lower low. So we have a lower high and a lower low already established. Not good for AMAT. One thing I would caution, however, about is like, okay, let's assume that you have a position in applied materials. Don't forget to always check the weekly charts. Okay. The weekly charts give us a much more longer term outlook. And as far as the weekly chart is concerned, we're still holding above the two moving averages here for the most part. Okay. So that we could potentially see a reversal, but the daily chart currently is weak. So I wouldn't be adding new positions until this is all cleared up. Amazon is still inside the Ichimoku cloud. And so we don't want to be adding positions here in Amazon yet. It has been moving up, but as you can see, we still have a bearish Ichimoku cloud. That's when the Sengu Span A, the light colored blue line crosses under the purple one, which is what happened right here. And then the Chikus band, which is the current price projected 26 periods ago, the white line is currently underpriced. That's also negative. All right. Let's see. Broadcom is also same scenario. Okay. AVGO is the ticker symbol. Bearish cloud, under the cloud, not good. AXP, American Express, on the other hand, looks more bullish here on the daily chart. We have a bullish cloud. That's when the Sengu Span A is above the Sengu Span B, and price is above the 200 right now. I like what I'm seeing with American Express on the daily chart, ticker symbol AXP. But if you look at the weekly, there's still a lot of things that haven't really materialized yet. So the longer term time frame hasn't basically confirmed that this is a stock that we should consider adding a new position in yet. My whole strategy is to look at both time frames, weekly and daily. If we get double confirmation on both time frames, then we have a higher probability trade. Right now, the cloud is still bearish here in the weekly. And you can see Chico Span is still under price. All right. These are a few things that need to be fixed here first. Citigroup, on the other hand, on the weekly, looks very bullish. All right. It's above the moving averages. It's above the cloud. The higher time frame is telling us it's OK. But what about the daily? The daily is not quite yet. It's basically been pulling back here, as you can see. Now, this might very well be a very short-lived, you know, little tight, little pullback here. And if price can get above the highs of these candles here, right, if it can get above that little trend line there, I think there's a higher probability we'll see another leg up. But would I be adding here? No. Price is still under the nine period. And I do like the candle that formed here. This is a hammer-type candle. So this is when we have a long wick on the bottom. That represents a lot of buying that happened towards the end of the day. All right. So you see a daily chart, and you see a long wick on the candle. At the bottom part, that means a lot of buying was taking place. If there's a long wick on the top, that means a lot of selling was taking place. I mean, I can show you guys it by switching it to a three-minute. So there we have Citigroup. And as you can see throughout the day, here we are on the 13th, all right? Price dropped, and then it reached this low. It was around 11.03 a.m. Since that point, Citigroup actually moved up 2.3%. So higher probability here that tomorrow Citigroup will actually pop, all right? That's just what I expect to see. It is in a strong sector as well. Here's the weekly chart again, all right? Capital One is also in a strong sector of financials, but it is not as strong. It's inside the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart. On the daily chart, we're above the moving averages. We're above the cloud. But as you can see, we are still holding right under that 200. And it's important to pay attention to that 200-day moving average as well. There's a lot of eyes on this moving average. As you can see, when price reached that level here, it drew back, came back to that same level, got rejected, pulled back again, found support at the 26, and the cloud bounced off it. So now we need to see some more confirmation. We need to see a breakout above the 200, at least on the daily. And of course, on the weekly, there's a lot of work here, too. We have a bearish cloud currently. DRAM is the roundtable memory ETF on the weekly chart. We're on to the nine period. And on the daily chart, we are also just stuck right at the cloud. We might see a bounce here, but it's not looking pretty. I wouldn't be adding here. INTC, same thing. It's actually entered the Ichimoku cloud. That's not a good sign when price re-enters the cloud. It's currently not a stock that I'd be considering. KLAC is under the two moving averages here. Let's look at the weekly. The weekly chart is finding some support. Now, this particular stock, I did have a position in this back on June 29th, got out on July 1st for a 9.3% profit. But after that gap down there, you can see that since that point, it's actually dropped 22.19%. So that's a big drop for KLAC, which is KLA Corporation. I also had a position in LRCX back on June 29th. I shared these trades I share with members. So I will talk about membership at the end of the whole video. So stay tuned for that if you want to find out more about how to become a member by hitting the join button on my homepage. So yeah, this one here I closed out for 3.1% profit. It's a very small profit on that. But look, it dropped 19.11% since it gapped down. So that's a good sign that I closed out of that at the right time. Meta platforms. As you can see here, we've got a declining 200-day. We did gap above it. But, you know, it's a very, very messy looking chart to me personally. I'm not a big fan of this. It's when I see the cloud basically crisscrossing. The single span A is under the single span B here. Then it crossed back above. And then it crossed right back under. And now it's crossing back above. So what we essentially have here just is a very messy chart on the daily. You look at the weekly chart and you can see it even more clearly. So this is why it's important to look at the weekly. You can get more clarity about what's actually transpiring by looking at that weekly chart. And so from this high here, if we switch it to that level right there, you can see this trend line. Okay. We've got it right in a downward channel in Meta. So I wouldn't be touching this one either. Marvell has been pulling back for the last four weeks. You can see here it's under the Tankinson on the weekly. All right. For two weeks now. And here's the daily chart. We've just reentered the cloud. So another stock that I wouldn't be adding at this point. It dropped 7.75%. And for the last couple of days now, the ChicoSpan, this lagging line here, has gotten under price. Where it was before, above it. Now it's under. This is a weak. This is a negative. The directional movement index is also very negative here. That's when the red line crosses above the green line. If we look straight up here, what happened to price? It's now continuing to drop. The ADX is moving up. That means momentum is increasing. That's the white line. So the ADX9, the white line represents momentum. That's increasing while price is dropping. And so that's not good. Microsoft, it was up 1.53%. However, looking at this daily chart, it's still in a very weak trend. We're under the cloud. We are hitting resistance right there at the 26. If you look at the weekly chart, we're still under the cloud as well. Nothing to do here with Microsoft either. There's a whole bunch of stocks here. We're going through these very quickly. Micron, on the weekly chart, we're finding support at the 854.35. That's a daily level. So I'm going to show you guys what that level is based on. It's based on this candle here. And so we came down. We got a little bounce right there. But the faster moving average is still under this lower one. I would not be adding positions here. The red line is above the green line with the directional movement index. No on Micron. NVIDIA, on the daily chart, is under this trend line. But it's also inside the Ichimoku cloud. And one of the rules of Ichimoku is you should not be adding new positions when price is inside the cloud or under the cloud. Here's the weekly chart. It's still holding out. But the daily is showing a lot of weakness here. And I would hold off on NVIDIA right now. SMH is still in the consolidation stage. It's been in this consolidation stage for a while. If I switch it to a weekly chart, you can see here there's about eight weeks now or so. Maybe a little bit more than that. Nine or ten weeks. Where price has been stuck, right, in this very, very tight range. And this week, it's currently under the nine period. Right now, it got under. So that's not a good sign. It was down 4.16%. Here's the daily chart. Maybe we'll get a bounce here soon. We'll see if we can do that. But not the time to be adding. NDK is Sandisk Corporation. Here's another trade that I placed back on June 30th. Got out of this one the very next day for a flat trade because it wasn't going my way. It's okay. It's all right to exit positions when you see that the trade doesn't start playing out the way that you expect it to. And guess what? Since that point, and I shared these trades with members, legend level members daily. Since that point, it actually dropped another 20.2%. So I'm really glad that I got out of that. We are Teradyne, technology sector. Again, technology is not a super strong sector to be in right now. But as you can see here on the daily chart, it's under the cloud. All right. Here's the weekly chart. Also under the two moving averages. That's not good for Teradyne. We've been holding up for a long time above that 26 period. Now, here's the one positive note on the weekly chart. This is the first day of the week. Okay. We have until Friday for this candle to actually materialize. And we'll know around, you know, in the afternoon on Friday where we are. Do we sit, will we be sitting above that 26 period, the red line, or below it? And if it's under, there's a higher probability that we'll just keep dropping. So let's hope that it can bounce back up. You know, this happened last week, the prior week, right? The week ending, let's see, July 10th, where price got under that 26. But then the buyer stepped in and pushed it right back above. Can we see that happen again? That's what we're waiting to see with Teradyne. And the daily chart, though, is not looking super pretty here. all right uh tsm taiwan semiconductor also finding support at the top of the cloud here on the daily chart we're still into the moving averages on the weekly chart we're under the nine period so i'd hold off on this one too uh wells fargo and company this one is inside the ichimoku cloud it's been staying inside of it like it's been held up uh like in this bubble here right notice how price has not broken through yet and the faster moving average is currently under the slower that's not a good sign either but i like what i'm seeing down below with the directional movement index that's when the adx9 is moving up and the green line is above the red line so maybe this might if it breaks through and it isn't a positive sector and it was at 0.62 percent maybe we'll see something positive happen here this is the weekly chart here's the daily the daily is very bullish okay because we broke through that 200 we just need to wait i think a little bit longer maybe until friday to for confirmation here because it's more than likely to give us an answer this week all right now we went through about 23 stocks in a very short period of time in about 17 minutes or so right now i'm going to go ahead and get back into the show you the second clip all right from cnbc today and then i'll follow up with more technical analysis at the end all right so stay tuned [00:41:09] Scott Wapner: reporting i want to call your attention shares of oracle uh can we show those please which are at the lows of the session turned lower um this stock has had a really rough go i just wanted to bring it up because if you if you look at it it's an it's a new 52 week low everybody but stephanie owns it in some form or fashion joe you have it in the in the t so i don't i don't want to get your take on it first because you're you're sort of locked you're locked for the for the moment but surat you you own it and i haven't heard from you on on this name in a while why do you think this this chart continues to look the way it does and what leads you to believe that this story is going to look different anytime soon so when oracle announced the big news a year ago [00:41:57] Speaker 5: stock kind of jumped went radically up we sold about half our position we kept on it because we still feel that oracle can make the transition and have earnings power but they're doing what the fab 7x apple are doing is spending into the business and the transition is going to occur really when they show that but they don't get any credit uh for this at all so we like it still at these levels it's [00:42:18] Speaker 6: painful but we're holding it so i agree with surat on the fundamental picture here in terms of why is the stock down over the last several sessions including today i think this has a lot to do with the monumental debt offerings that have been coming from the likes of amazon and spacex and if you think about spacex whether that was two weeks ago whenever it was that they did a 25 billion dollar offering the spreads on those offerings have been going wide wide wide i think the yield to worse is over 7% on one of the longer dated issuances and it's basically just the debt market is having a tough time digesting all this debt issuance which includes oracle which has used a lot of debt financing on their data [00:42:56] Scott Wapner: center build outs all right welcome back the call that we teased is from wells fargo which asks the question should disney exit streaming they cut the price target to 125 from 146 they lay out the case for disney to return to its old business model of producing versus distributing we think it could add up to 40 or around 40 percent to the stock price by de-risking earnings and tightening management's focus [00:43:22] Speaker 6: to ip and experiences farmer jim i'm going to applaud the analyst for recognizing as i do too that something bold needs to happen at disney i mean this share price has been moribund on being charitable by using that word however i don't think this is the move to make because if you get rid of streaming then you've got the melting ice cube of linear tv i will give him credit that saying this now is a lot different than saying it two years ago uh when when the streaming business had barely turned profitable but i don't think this is what's holding the company back i think what's holding the company back over the last year is ongoing geopolitical concerns about what higher oil prices and conflict in the middle east means for the theme parks for the experiences don't forget that disney about a year ago announced that they are going to build a resort in dubai that's obviously held in abeyance by what's been going on with iran i think if you get geopolitical things to calm down that's really what may put a little bit of lift to the stock i i wouldn't to me the streaming business is more of a crown jewel at [00:44:25] Speaker 3: this point in time really crown jewel i'm not sure i'd call it that jimmy the stock over the last five years down 47 i think this note is a reaction to that to your point i think everyone's just trying to figure out what this company ultimately could be in the future i think it has an identity crisis more than anything else i think if you and by the way at the end of april we bought it at 103 and i'm not happy that we bought it and it's in the jyoti i think the balance sheet looks worse than it did five years ago they're spending way more money they're not really making any strides in streaming and we heard five years ago they were going for growth right they were going for growth via streaming but yet it seems as though they're just sitting and spinning their wheels in that regard so more than anything else when you think about this company in the future what is the identity of the company and why as a shareholder would you ever want to pay a premium for a company that's balance sheet looks worse so i [00:45:20] Speaker 5: think there's a bigger thing here i mean look we talk about disney we got through the succession nothing happened to the stock right now we're focused on the streaming but you look at streaming all together look at netflix look at what comcast is doing with nbc the streaming that we thought jody 0.5 years ago and then we had covered was you know huge right now it's the quote is funflation right how much can you really charge for all these things so i do think we need a catalyst there i don't know if this is the right one to to jimmy's point but i think there's a lot of value there and i think you could see consolidation i'm not sure which way it goes but with theme parks with streaming with these assets that are really cash rich but they're just not being utilized the right [00:46:01] Speaker 3: way in the last five years the biggest catalyst for the stock has been activism yeah that's the big whether it goes up or nelson peltz that that was the catalyst and that's when the stock moved in both instances so i look i'd love to see it have the turnaround story but i just don't know what it is [00:46:18] Scott Wapner: so let me let me say this um if disney's problem stocks down 15 year to date is because of geopolitics are somehow hindering people from going to the theme parks tell me why marriott's stock price is up on the year tell me why the airlines have done so well in the face of geopolitics and rising jet fuel prices because there seems to be at least in my mind a disconnect from your explanation yeah well i [00:46:49] Speaker 6: you know to me the answer to that scott is that the opportunity is there in disney but i think that the price increases that we've seen particularly at the theme parks have been even more than the price increases than we've seen that we've seen at delta and i don't know marriott that well so i've got to [00:47:06] Scott Wapner: put that to the side but i just use it as an example you're telling me that the the reason the stock hasn't done anything is because the geopolitics it's all geopolitics well i gave you an example of a hotel name that's done well the airlines have done really well it seems like uh a specious excuse for why the stock is [00:47:27] Speaker 6: down for lack of a better word yeah i mean just just remember scott before we had the war with iran when oil was at sixty dollars a barrel and gasoline was wherever it was three dollars a gallon there were still concerns right then before this conflict started about the inflation in theme park tickets and had disney squeezed all of the juice out of the orange of the consumer um and now we've got even more pressure on the consumer from gasoline prices i do think that's what the distinction is i don't think we were having that same discussion about delta and i can't again i can't talk about marriott because i don't know it as well but certainly delta we weren't talking about the inflationary prices before the war with iran built out now i will also say there's another aspect here and i don't think streaming is the problem i got to just go to that really quickly all right because that went from a money loser to probably earns about two billion dollars over the next 12 months like let's not give that up what has been a problem in addition to this is the studio releases just haven't been that good i mean we need you know if you want to know where i'd like to see a little bit of oomph it's getting better studio [00:48:29] Scott Wapner: releases okay but now we've we've come to other things on the list you're not you don't love the studio releases geopolitics the streaming how about espn i mean that was dan loeb said spin it off that's [00:48:44] Speaker 3: that's the crown jewel where are we on espn i don't think they've been able to leverage that asset at all i i will agree with you unfortunately okay all right we'll take a break all right before we go [00:48:56] Scott Wapner: we have some moves from surat yes so you bought ferrari and you bought striker ferrari first i did so [00:49:03] Speaker 5: high quality company that's now double digits this year they had a misstep i think with the ev uh but they're going to do really well going forward because this is a car that you can't get enough of they are sold out for two more years and the stock price gives the opportunity man owns what [00:49:18] Scott Wapner: he obviously drives you bought striker you sold zimmer and you sold zoetis i did so close out the [00:49:24] Speaker 5: positions there um zoetis was a mistake they kept on misstepping um and then if you look at zimmer i'd rather own striker high quality company much better management team leader robotics they're having an issue with cyber so this is the time to get to high quality company you should just listen [00:49:40] Scott Wapner: to steph when she sold i should have i told her i i did i ate it that's a shame what's your final [00:49:45] Speaker 5: trait uh morgan stanley i think the catalyst could be the wealth management business farmer jim blackrock [00:49:51] Speaker 6: we see what happened to asset prices in the second quarter that'll show up in earnings yeah they [00:49:55] Scott Wapner: and they report this week i think it's wednesday uh stephanie link capital one at seven and a half times earnings really too cheap take your pick on the refiners all right well we'll see what this market does i will see you for the final stretch on the closing bell guys thanks so much welcome to closing bell i'm scott wagner live from post nine here at the new york stock exchange and this maker breakout begins with a down day for stocks boils up semis remain very unsettled the scorecard was 60 to go and regulation looks like that the majors are all red on those renewed tensions with iran today text the weakest area intel micron marvel oracle i could have put others on the list but it just gives you an idea of what the selling looks like with an hour to go in the trade today apple hitting a new all-time high earlier in the session was about 320 bucks so it's come a little bit off of that but nonetheless it is a record-setting day for that stock several of the energy names are up today on that move i mentioned in crude oil pretty good across the board for the boleros the diamond backs philip 66 and others yields a little bit firmer on waller's comments we're now in the closing bell market zone mike santoli and i capital shanali basic here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day oliver renick standing by live from the sebo global markets up in chicago and pippa stevens all over that move in energy today and it's a big one for sure michael your take on this market's what [00:51:21] Speaker 8: so familiar action where you know the tech sell-off created this response by the rest of the market to to try to circle the wagons and take up the slack but as we always say the macro factors have veto power over the broadening trade i think that's what happened today you know with oil doing what it's doing the yield uh kind of pushing new highs it did really prevent the cyclicals from taking over so we're left with you know a lot of a push pull under the surface you're still at the s p levels you reached two months ago i wouldn't say it's necessarily something that says you know we're brittle and we're going to break but it does show you that the market's really been able unable to get out of its own way in a big way and now we have to kind of i guess at least keep one eye on those macro risk [00:52:03] Scott Wapner: factors as earnings start to kick in yeah cpi tomorrow morning then wars especially after waller [00:52:09] Speaker 8: right yeah no exactly so financial conditions tightening are going to complicate the picture if we get there the other interesting thing is with earning season coming we already have very low correlations within the market so it's already like every company going its own way relative to the index that's usually earning season type behavior so we'll see if we can get even more in that direction or we're going to get some one-way trades here yeah i know you're going [00:52:31] Scott Wapner: to get a setup for everything in about five minutes less than that in fact pippa on energy what's [00:52:36] Speaker 9: happening yeah it's got up more than three percent amid an eight percent jump in oil that sent brand crude back above 82 now today's gains are being led by the refiners which have been on a tear as fuel futures rise with valero phillips 66 and marathon petroleum all hitting record highs today pbf energy and hf sinclair also in the green ukraine continues to hit russian refinery infrastructure with more than 80 percent of the country's capacity hit this year it's according to the oxford institute for energy studies the spike in gasoline and heating oil futures which is the proxy for diesel lifting the three to one crack spread which measures refiners margins to a record sixty four dollars per barrel that's up from 20 at the beginning of the year the drillers which are most tied to oil prices also seeing a lift today with diamondback eog apa and devon all up better than three percent scott [00:53:21] Scott Wapner: all right pips thanks so much that's pippa stevens sonali sitting next to me well the macro comes back [00:53:25] Speaker 10: in a big way tomorrow morning right sure does and you look at what the financials can offer the fact that you had this ipo boom for the first half of the year capital markets boom remember you've seen jp morgan inc a billion dollars worth of debt underwriting fees in just a quarter alone so we're looking for not just a stellar performance here on capital markets but also clipping those trading fees and also net interest margins staying strong in the face of a flattening yield curve two minutes to go here before [00:53:52] Scott Wapner: this bell is going to ring you follow the fed as closely as anybody so waller kind of ups the ante this afternoon we get cpi in the morning followed by chair warsh's first appearance on the hill for his semi-annual testimony that's going to be a little spicy now it's going to be spicy because inflation [00:54:11] Speaker 10: is still hot but let's see if there's any evidence that he sees that inflation can peak in the next quarter or two because if that is the case then what will happen is not only will you have a fed on hold but you have a fed that can still have a bias towards cutting if we can still see the fed see wage pressure remain under control therefore services eventually come under pressure and oil prices not flying out of control even in the face of increased escalation i feel like that bias though is gone in [00:54:38] Scott Wapner: terms of the cutting i mean you got the you know the statement was changed in the most recent meeting as i said you know waller sort of walks even further away from a view many months ago about cutting [00:54:48] Speaker 10: rates listen it could stay structural if it stays on for too long but right now we just don't think we're there yet scott you can still see a scenario here with if you see nfp numbers coming in this much cooler than expected quarter after quarter you're equally going to have conversation a month from now i promise you about a tough spot for the fed in terms of hiking so we think the market is doing the work for the fed a little bit here and we don't see a hike on the near-term horizon unless we see oil [00:55:16] Scott Wapner: prices fly back out of control we'll talk to you soon thanks for being here because they're clapping that means the bell is going to be ringing so we'll leave it there we'll talk to shanali back again the market's going to be red across the board give me apple real quick guys because this was a day of record setting for that stock sets a new intraday high earlier in the session and even [00:55:35] Speaker 3: know it's not going to close at its highest level it's going to be a new closing tie again for apple [00:55:44] Speaker 1: all right in this final segment we're going to go over about 15 stocks combination of stocks and etfs that you see here on the left hand side that they just discussed and we'll take a look at the indices too that's important the russell the spy the q's we'll look at the euro stocks 50 gold silver oil bitcoin ethereum and copper miners etf and then we'll also take a look at one of our members requests c mps as the ticker symbol on that one but before we get started on this i just want to give you guys a brief overview of what happened today the u.s stocks closed lower as renewed u.s iran tensions lifted oil above 80 dollars and rekindled inflation and fed rate hike concerns ahead of the key cpi and bank earnings so um it's currently 7 33 p.m as i'm recording this let's take a look at the calendar real quick i just want to show you guys what's going on here so tomorrow is a is a really important day as you can see the core in inflation rate month over month is coming out at 8 30 a.m then we have the core inflation rate year over year also at the same time uh at 8 30 a.m the inflation rate month over month and inflation rate year over year comes out as well as 10 10 a.m fed chair warsh will come out with his testimony so that's going to be very interesting how the market uh is impacted because these are high impact news events okay and uh let's see are there any other things going on this week on wednesday july 15th we have the ppi month over month we've got fed share warsh's testimony again on 10 a.m at 10 a.m so that's going to probably affect the markets again and then on thursday at 8 30 a.m we've got retail sales month over month let's see what do we have on friday july 17th we've got building permits and that and the housing starts that will that's at 8 30 a.m though that will definitely affect the real estate stocks and then we've got at 10 a.m michigan consumer sentiment so it's it's a very interesting week let's uh take a look again at how the the markets perform the dow jones was actually down 0.26 percent nasdaq was down 1.55 it gapped down and continued to drop throughout the day the s&p 500 did the same thing down 0.79 percent and the russell was down 0.85 but the nasdaq down the most 1.55 let's take a look at the heat map as we can see in the colored uh zones here remember if it's a very bright green that's plus three percent very bright red that's negative three percent so the majority of the semiconductor stocks were under three percent right they made they had losses uh the specific stocks like nvidia brockham micron was down 4.3 we had oracle down 6.47 uh some of the semiconductor equipment and materials stocks that you see right there and uh but microsoft was up 1.53 apple was up 0.63 the energy stocks were very positive today they did really really well uh amazon was up 0.8 consumer defensive stocks did well utilities real estate did okay and the financials let's look at the financials they were mixed uh we had some positive some negative and the industrial is not so great health care also mixed we look at the groups and we could see specifically the individual sectors right so energy up 2.73 percent for the day and technology down 2.39 um for the one week performance energy's up six six and a half percent so from last week um you know energy stocks are starting to like move up so that's what's happening so that's what's happening so that's what's happening in the street of hormous let's take a look at uh the stocks now now i did add about 15 in here but there are some stocks that are missing they may be in my portfolio and so i'm not i only cover those with members and so you may want to consider becoming a member folks now let's take a look i'll talk about that at the end all right mpc marathon petroleum corporation here's a stock oil and gas refining and marketing is the industry that it's in as you see the adx is moving up positive di is above the negative di this is exactly what you want to see in a stock uh we've got price okay above the nine period above the 26 period we've got the chico span above price we've got sinker span a above sinker span b okay we've got a series of higher highs right so this high is higher than the prior one this low is higher than this low all right so we can see that it actually found some support at this prior low here so we can call that a you know basically the uh stair step up right as it moved up it never broke under or closed under that level going all the way back to this level here so this is very uh bullish i like what i'm seeing with npc on the daily chart you look at the weekly chart it also confirms everything um and it was up 4.61 today what about the rest of these well i reviewed all of them guess what no blue flags here why look at american airlines for example it pulled it's pulled back it's under the nine period it's finding support at 26 it was down 3.78 today on the weekly chart we're pulling back as well after hitting that 1908 level close to that level that prior resistance level that you can see was touched over here here and here and now it's pulling back so that's not good of course uh the airlines will be affected by higher gas prices and fuel costs and if oil prices continue to move up um that's you know we're going to see those stocks drop again blackrock incorporated all right this one here is inside the ichimoku cloud in the weekly and on the daily chart it's also inside the cloud nothing to do here we have a series of lower highs lower lows so far i would hold off on this one obviously delta airlines also pulled back but finding support at least at the 26 period right there so that's good on the weekly chart we're still above the moving averages in the cloud um but it's not a time to be adding disney same thing here's the weekly under pride under the cloud on the daily chart it's also under the cloud so no on disney we've got fang ticker symbol for diamondback energy this one has started to move up after coming close to that 200 day moving average you can see that it actually has moved up approximately 12.5 percent or so but it's finding resistance at the cloud itself and it was up 4.48 percent it needs to break through that cloud we still have a bearish cloud here it's not as strong for example as npc ticker symbol npc marathon jet blue on the daily chart is pulling back two days in a row now down 2.78 percent holding up as well above that 26 period here's the weekly chart onto the 200 no on jet blue for the time being love luv is a ticker symbol for southwest airlines on the weekly chart we have a lower high that's starting to develop here all right so that's not a good sign lower than the prior high all right and let's look at that daily chart for low luv yeah it's just pulling back right above that 26 period mar is the ticker symbol for marriott internet uh internet incorporated for lodging right marriott hotels this one has entered the cloud so this is also negative down 3.5 percent i also don't like what i'm seeing here with the directional movement index the adx meaning the momentum is starting to increase as though as it pulls back further on the weekly chart at least we're still holding right at that 26 period so it's got some support right there for the time being we'll see if that can hold up oracle on the other hand today dropped 6.24 this is the weekly chart you're looking at it it's highlighted and you can see it broke through that 134.57 level and looking at the daily chart it goes all the way back to this level right here from april 10th of 2026 in fact since that's more of a weekly level i'm going to color it light blue to signify that it's a it's a basically more important level than say a daily like a light red colored level and the fact that we broke through that is very significant here because on the daily chart you can see how we had found support here back in february we found it again in april a couple times right price bounced moved up came down it looked like it was trying to find some support right there and then boom it dropped right under that 134.57 not good it's a higher likelihood now that's going to pull back more here's a weekly chart it's under the 200 as well for two weeks now three sorry three weeks in a row under that 200 day the dotted yellow line so not a good sign where could it potentially find support maybe around 120 maybe another nine percent pullback from here from where we are and then you've got ticker symbol r-a-c-e for three weeks in a row and then you can see if you've got ticker symbol r-a-c-e for three weeks in a row and then you can see if you've got ticker symbol r-a-c-e for three weeks in a row and then you can see if you've got ticker symbol r-a-c-e for three weeks and then you can see if you've got ticker symbol r-a-c-e for three weeks in a row and then you can see if you're going to go to the next one and the prior shoulder right there the low right there so it could be potentially uh something that could turn bullish here based on what we're seeing but uh the fact that we're still under this cloud it's we're still in that situation and i'd be very very cautious we did cross above that 200 day on the weekly i'm sorry 200 week uh moving average and we're still holding up above it right now let's look at the daily chart so yeah you can see that the on the daily chart it's been looking a little bit more bullish like it broke through the 200 um but it's uh not something i would be interested in as long as it remains under that bearish cloud syk same thing with striker corporation under the cloud no on the daily chart it's above so you know again you're taking a higher probability trade it's a higher risk is what i'm i'm sorry it's a higher risk trade if you take a trade where price is breaking above the cloud on the daily but it hasn't quite you know proved itself on this higher time frame the weekly chart and when you see that there's a level of resistance here where price has been stalling not just once but four weeks four weeks in a row okay and i would just take that as a as an omen that there's a higher probability it's gonna pull back all right uh the weekly is always more important than the daily chart in my opinion ual united airlines holdings okay so this one here broke through this resistance level 119.21 on the weekly chart uh that happened uh back here uh on june 26 we closed above we're pulling back now are we gonna bounce off this level i don't know i mean if the oil prices continue to move up i think that they were likely to pull back and maybe even break under that 119.21 here's a daily chart so it's just holding by a thread right now what about uh zbh now in the daily charts looking bullish we've got a series of higher highs higher lows we broke through that 200 the clouds turn bullish the chico span the white line is above price you look at the weekly though and look where it's stalling right at the cloud so this is a very strong level of resistance um i mean you go back in time like right over here price came up to the cloud what happened found resistance and pulled back how big of a pullback was that well if i measure from that level down to this low it was about a 19.8 chance but i want to take a chance here why take that risk when i know that there's resistance there it doesn't make sense we're obviously in a downward channel here with zbh and so it just doesn't make sense at this time there's not enough momentum there's not enough interest if you don't have enough buyers to help push the price up all right through levels of resistance then it's more more than likely to not go your way and you'll probably pay the price for it zts zoetes another one okay this is in the healthcare sector no uh it's been stair-stepping downwards and uh the cloud is still bearish the 200 is declining on the weekly chart here's the daily chart same thing is it starting to maybe find some stability here possibly but oracle looked the same way too right let's go back to oracle for a moment because oracle was looking like it was stabilizing right at that level of 134.57 where it reached that level and price seemed like it wanted to the buyers were trying to hold it up but today they lost right the the the bulls lost and guess what the bears are in control now let's take a look folks at the indices quickly russell 2000 iwm under the nine period currently for two days friday and today now we're also still under that 299 as i've been mentioning you know the indices haven't really been moving they've been stuck for for three weeks now okay in this range so i'm not super bullish here uh s p 500 same thing i mean since may we've been in this price range here again um stuck in a box and when you're stuck in a box it's it's best to wait you sit on your hands and wait this is not a time to be adding positions you want to wait for it to break either break above 760 40 or wait for it to break under some prior lows okay the qs qqq etf um last week i accidentally gave it a blue flag the cheek span was under price that was the only thing that was negative last week um and uh yeah and of course that that i'm sorry that was not the only thing that was negative price was declining here you can see that that decline we had a lower high and now what's happening is i want you guys to check out the trajectory so um let me just zoom in a little bit so you can see what i'm talking about so from this high here to this high it's a lower high right here but it's not like a super you know the actual decline is is not super steep but when you go from this high to this high notice how the the steepness is now starting to become a little bit more deeper right and if we get another lower high down here obviously that could be a problem because then it could it just can sort of start turning over so what do we really have here is it almost looks like kind of a symmetrical triangle pattern right there that we're stuck in and so we'll see what happens with the queues but uh it's not looking super bullish you get the red line above the green line adx is kind of flat right now we'll see if it can hold up um today closed inside the cloud that's the first time in a long time that we've been inside the cloud the last time price was inside the cloud was back here back on april 10th but that was a good sign because we came from under the cloud into the cloud and broke through it right so that's why we wait for that momentum we want we wait for those buyers to start start stepping in how do we recognize that we look to see gaps do you see this gap up there's a there's a signal when price is stuck right here and it breaks and gaps above a 200-day moving average that's positive so now you can start keeping a strong watch on it and when it breaks through that cloud you can see that huge move that happened there with the queues if i measure from that level to the high that was about a 21.2 percent move in just 1.7 months now what's happened since that move since that date it's actually dropped 4.7 percent the dow dia etf on the daily chart is under the moving average your tankinson on the weekly chart it's above all right the vix uh let's look at the vix that represents the volatility in the markets uh as you can see here it's it popped into the cloud it moved up 13.44 this represents fear in the markets and we don't want to see that uh jumping like like it did right there that's not a good sign right there this is a very bearish pattern for the market okay when we see the vix moving up it tends to have an opposite inverse effect on the on the stock market whoops oh shoot i just um changed the uh trajectory there of all the stuff um i i just messed up the order guys okay let's see if i can figure this out well i'm not sure exactly but let's see i think i was about to look at fec the euro stocks 50. here's the daily chart it's under the two moving averages all right it's under the two moving averages currently i would hold off on on euro stocks here's the weekly chart okay we're currently under the tank it's in and we're under the 70 52 level again just stuck in this range let's see what else should we talk about uh we didn't talk about oil k this is the pro shares k1 free crude oil strategy etf here's the weekly chart all right it's starting to like turn up now okay what's interesting here is we had this big move up since the beginning of 2026 it moved up approximately 60 percent in four four months it it's pulled back since that point approximately 22 percent or so from i'm sorry let me redo that again from this high to that low 24.7 and now from this low here it's up already 10 and a half percent so it's turning up because of what's happening that's the weekly chart is it two weeks now we're seeing this change happening look at the daily chart it's finding resistance at the 26 period all right but it's news that is going to impact this stock in it and if there are enough buyers and enough momentum it will break through those levels of resistance and then obviously the whole outlook changes once again all right as you can see here this red line has been above the green line for such a long time right all these multiple days and we came close to 200 and since that point it's starting to move up now we've got bitcoin ibit is the etf that's down 2.79 percent today onto the cloud i'd skip that one meaning not add positions here i believe in adding positions into strength not into weakness because we don't know exactly how far that drawdown is going to be it could be significantly longer so you know that's the reason you don't want to be adding to losing positions or averaging down because you can be basically investing in a dog of a stock you know not all stocks turn around all right they don't always turn around uh gld and or if they do it might take sometimes even five ten years and if you're coming to retirement you want to be a little bit more cautious about what you're adding to your portfolio here's gld as you can see it's been declining down 2.62 percent that's the daily chart here's the weekly though now gold um is inside the cloud it has not broken through the cloud here yet all right it's possible that it could reverse course and start moving back up again you can see this prior low here of three three sixty twelve when it reached that level back on june 26th it came down and the buyer stepped in right there and then it stayed above that level so it's finding support at 360. that's a level that i'd be really careful with and cautious cautious about because if it breaks under it's more likely to come down further to the three 1760 level you can see that prior level right there okay so those prior highs that was the prior box eth eth eth eth all right it seems to have stabilized over here but it's under the cloud it's under the moving averages no on ethereum eth dia the dow jones industrial average etf on the weekly chart still looks very bullish overall adx is still moving up on the daily chart it is under tenkinson currently for the last four days but it's been steadily moving up which is kind of interesting right so it could it's under this moving average that seems to be you can see the the moving average itself it can flatten out start moving back up flatten out start moving back that's what that's actually quite bullish um but i would like to see price actually close above the nine period all right what else we got copper copx and that's under the cloud under this symmetrical triangle under the 200 today that's not good closed under the tenkinson today uh last week you can see it tried to recover after this bullish hammer type candle here's a weekly chart still pulling back but we're above the cloud on the higher time frame so it's up to each trader to determine whether or not you want to hold in and hold off and sit on your hands and wait to see how it all transpires on the weekly chart remember the weekly is more important than the daily chart there's a lot more noise on the daily charts that's why it's really important to look at that weekly all right let's look at this the next one this is the member one of our members requested this one this compass pathways plc it's in the healthcare sector under medical care on the weekly chart very very bullish as you can see here we've got price above this 200 we've got price above the nine period the green line we've got price above the red line the 26 period prices above the cloud that's exactly what you want to see the momentum is starting to decline a little bit on the adx9 on the weekly chart as you can see after these three weeks now it's been just kind of pulling back but holding above that nine period that's really important so it's still looking bullish in my opinion on the weekly let's take a look at the daily so here's as you can see we've penetrated the the faster moving average and the slower one the 26 and the nine and the 26 and dropped under we still technically have a series of higher highs and higher lows so there's a higher high here let me just higher than this prior high okay see that slope and this low here is in fact higher than the prior one so we are still in a upward channel the question is uh but we're seeing a little bit of a slowdown here with the directional movement index you can see that adx is dropping that means that price is just moving sideways right now so it's consolidating it's more of a hold position uh as far as i'm concerned you know um the chicken span is right in it's inside the candle it's neither above nor under it's just like so there's there's just a lot of indecision here for cmps and uh all right so that's going to do it for this part of the video i'm going to share with you guys if you're interested in sticking around to find out about how to become a member all right let me just show you this is my channel blue cloud trading currently we are over 31 500 subscribers over 470 videos the majority of the videos are the free videos that you see here every day but i also create member only videos each weekend and i just popped one out this weekend obviously they're usually about an hour long and i go over my entire portfolio i also do a very thorough analysis of the sectors the strongest sectors the strongest industries and then i try to identify the strongest stocks within those strongest industries so it's like a top down approach and then from there it's like a filtering process okay and i'm looking at the charts and i'm going to help itself i'm looking at both that weekly and daily that's my strategy and i'm doing all the work i spend hours okay reviewing a lot of stocks and come up with a list watch lists for this week for example i added a number of stocks from my watch list and so and i share that with blue cloud trader and blue cloud legend level members so how do you get access to that you click on this button it's right next to the subscribe button remember it's free to subscribe to my channel and hit that notification bell if you want to get a notification right whenever a new video pops up so that you're you get it on a timely manner in a timely manner but yeah you click on this join button if you want to get access to these videos you're not you won't just get access to this weekend but you'll also be able to see my prior ones as well there's a lot of them i've been doing it for a couple of years now so uh a lot of data so here's the join button click on that and then you can see there's three levels all right so you do thank you if you've become a blue cloud supporter i appreciate you you can actually request a stock or etf be analyzed in an upcoming video like the one i just did but if you want to um view those videos you do need to click on blue cloud trader and then you'll have access to that those exclusive member only strategy videos 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because i've got a lot of filters to help identify the strongest ones and then um yeah i mean consider becoming a legend level member and guys one more thing uh you saw me earlier showcase the this the candle pattern reference sheet if you want to get access to this for free and this stock patterns cheat sheet you can download these as a reference when you're reviewing your stocks and you'll be able to find the candle pattern reference sheet and this free stock patterns cheat sheet you can download these as a reference when you're reviewing your stocks one more thing i'll say if you guys are also interested in the charting platform that i use here a lot of you ask about this it's called tc2000 you can actually get a $25 coupon through my affiliate link for that software how do you get it you come to my page here click on this where it says 10 more links there's a description of the channel you scroll down a little bit and there it is the $25 coupon click on that link enter your email here download the software here's the pricing software plans and data you can try out the basic for free for a month $24.99 you get that $25 coupon as long as you haven't used the service in the last 12 months you can use that coupon um the other thing on the same links page here you'll find my twitter page finviz elite is this software that you may have seen me use okay and there's a whole bunch of other links too if you want to check those out thanks guys for supporting the channel i'll catch you all in the next video [01:25:05] Speaker 6: the itchimoku is guiding light blue cloud trading through the night [01:25:35] Speaker ?: Thank you.