🚨 US CPI Data LIVE : Hot or Cool Inflation? WAR = OIL SPIKE = Fed Rate HIKES? Stocks & Crypto React!

[00:00:00] Speaker ?: Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords [00:04:10] Speaker 1: Transcription by CastingWords It is an hour earlier if you are watching here from the UK or other parts of the world. But yeah, we are live two hours before the opening bell, just basically always on the opening bell. And here we are. So thank you everyone for tuning in. So we're going to have a lot of work. So we're not looking for a spike based off global oil prices, but we are looking for underlying spikes based off other factors that the Fed will probably be more likely to actually care about. And unless this ongoing war, unless this is a long time and it's not short-term volatility and that will have an effect, too. So very important day today with CPI inflation a week ahead of the FOMC report. So we've got a lot of work. So we've got a lot of work. So we've got a lot to cover. So we've got a lot to cover, a lot to get prepared for. I hope everyone's got the newsletter and managed to get their cheat sheet today. As promised, all of these events always have a cheat sheet that go alongside it. If I can do it, I will do it. And we've been covering every single major data event with a cheat sheet on the newsletter. Essentially, you can get all the numbers and my thoughts on them and how the market will trade based off the data release because it always gets a little bit volatile around these data releases, especially the more we deviate away from what consensus numbers are forecasted at. So if you have just tuned in, take one second, hit that like button and please do subscribe if you haven't done so already. Did you miss the morning forecast show? Let me know in the chat. Yes or no. Did you miss the morning forecast show? I did. I certainly did. So let me know in the chat. Yes or no. Did you miss the morning forecast show? Let me check this. Yeah, we're all good. OK, so let me come on. We'll go straight to the newsletter. So over here is the website, Sensei.News. Let me put the timer on the screen for CPI inflation report. There you go. So you don't have to keep asking me what time is the CPI report. Well, there's a timer just below me down there. 52 minutes to go. We've added more features and the training course should be coming very soon. We've just added WorthLens, which is our very own net worth tracker. Go check that out as well. OK, so let's go on to our daily newsletter, the morning forecast. The top stories today are DC mixed signals jostle oil. Conflicting official reports on naval operations cause extreme crude price volatility. We got some fake news yesterday about oil tankers being headed through, heading through the Strait of Hormuz. That seemed to be fake news. The White House deleted that post very quickly and Caroline Levitt in her press conference went back on that. So we're getting mixed signals here from the White House. There was more on that story. Oracle Cloud Growth. We saw their earnings and their beats on earnings and they had a big surge. A massive company with a nearly 10% move up. So that was great. Let me see in the chat. Did you guys miss it? Good morning. Good morning. Who said they missed it? Human being Liz said she missed it. Liz said she missed it. Dan Ackerman said, yes, I missed the morning forecast. So thank you. I think only two people missed it, which is fine. I love it. I'm looking at the live chat over here. Oh, yeah. And Chris F says, hell yes, it's how I start my day. Well, it means a lot, guys, that you value the morning forecast show. I love it. I love it. I love doing it as well. I certainly did miss it. But these time changes always get us. I don't think I've been streaming a year yet with all my morning forecast. I've been streaming on the channel for about three years, but I haven't been doing my morning shows for a year. So I've never experienced Dan. It's thrown everything off a little bit, especially with previous appointments that were set up. So we should be good now. We should be back, even though it's an hour earlier for, I think, three weeks here in the UK. I think we should be good. So that's great. Can gold and silver go up? Can gold and silver go up? That's a great question. Yes, gold and silver can go up. Vince Bango says, good morning. Ricardo says, everyone missed the morning. Everyone missed the morning broadcast sense. Thank you, Ricardo. Morning. Everyone missed it. They're just being lazy about posting it. I love it, Dan. Thanks. Yeah, we're surprised. 12.30 here, says human being. Liz. Yeah, it's 11.30 here, which might seem like, what are you complaining about? It's very late. But we start the newsletter research about four hours before the show begins. So when you have an appointment, it does throw things off. Anyway, we're here. We're live. Wednesday. [00:09:40] Speaker 2: What have I done here? [00:09:41] Speaker 1: Oh, God. Have I put the wrong date in the title? Wednesday. I need to change that quickly. How have I done that? I've never done that. I've never done that. That is terrible. Wednesday, the 10th of March. That makes no sense. Wednesday. Let me change that for anyone who goes on the app. [00:10:05] Speaker 3: What's going on? Wednesday, the 11th of March update. There we go. That's fixed. [00:10:16] Speaker 2: If I refresh it, we should be good. [00:10:19] Speaker 1: There we go. Okay, going for our top story. So we had the DC oil. We've got Oracle, big growth. Amazon raises record debt in the billions. Massive investor demand fueled a bond sale to fund AI infrastructure projects. So that was a massive, massive raise from Amazon. Apple launches its cheapest MacBook ever. The new $500 Neo target students to expand ecosystem reach. This is a massive story for Apple investors. They are taking on Chromebooks. They're taking on all of these budget entry-level laptops that schools will be using all the time. Remember, schools are now buying their students' laptops or sort of loaning them the laptops. And it's never been a case of shall we give them Apple laptops or MacBooks because they've been too expensive, everything above a thousand. But now there is a contender, not only for schools, but also just students, that I think with the student discount, it's about $499 or £499 because Apple likes to make it more expensive for people in the UK. So $499 is half the price of the cheapest MacBook Air you can get. So this is a big move by Apple. And I believe this is a great move for Apple. I think this is going to have long-term. Again, you won't see the effects very short-term apart from the people getting excited. We might get some short-term effects by just normal people buying it and normal students buying it. But I think the longer-term effects will come when schools start to make the decision when their Chromebooks get a bit older or whatever computers they're using, which is probably Chromebooks right now, get older. Are they going to replace their whole, are they going to replace them with new Chromebooks or are they going to move over to probably the best ecosystem, which is Apple for simplicity's sake? So, yeah, so that's actually quite a big story. We've got G7 Ways historic oil release. So ministers plan a massive reserve release to counter Middle East supply shock. So that's a breaking story at the moment. We are waiting for updates to see if that plan does go through, but it looks like it will. And a massive release of storage oil, which should give them about a 20-day run rate. Again, all these stories are broken down in more detail below. And then the main story of today, the one we're all watching, the one that's going to have the biggest effect on the markets, which is the February CPI, which is probably going to mask stagflation risk. So upcoming inflation data precedes the oil shock while weak jobs increase fears. So we're going to get down to getting ready for that. Let me make sure we've got all our screens ready. There we go. That's Bitcoin. [00:13:13] Speaker 2: We've got the S&P 500. Let's see if we've got Bloomberg on the screen as well. If I move this down slightly. [00:13:33] Speaker 3: Interesting that it's not letting me do that. [00:13:38] Speaker 1: We've got Bloomberg down here ready to go as well. So the one big thing today is the February inflation report. We won't read into that too much because we want to get down to the report. Winners versus losers. We've got three big winners today. Dom Dom, which surged 40% after its earnings. We've got Ballard power systems jumping up announcing commercial agreement with new flyer. And then we've got Oracle, which is up 7% after their earnings yesterday. And then the biggest loser is Cosmos energy down 18%. The markets are pretty slightly down today. Nothing major. But we've got oil pretty flat right now. Waiting for the announcement of the release of storage. So it's actually holding up okay. What a crazy run it's been on oil. I don't think I've been live since we saw $120 and then straight back to $77. What a crazy trade that was. Let me remove this for a second and show you the oil chart. Because this was something pretty much never seen before. We saw oil jump from... What was it? It was... Yeah, the market jumped. It was... I think it was Friday, right? And it closed at $91. And then we opened at something like $105. And then went all the way up to $120. And then in the same day, it dropped all the way down to $80. So massive swings on oil. And that's why in the premium chat in Substack, I disclosed my oil position. Firstly, yes, we did have some positions for oil at $55. That was certainly a position we had open from that double bottom. Then that trend got confirmed with two breaks of trend lines. First one at $62. The next entry point and the next one being at $70. But also, obviously, at the time of the war, I did something I haven't really done before. But it seemed like the right thing to do. I didn't want to open any call options on oil. I didn't want to make things too complicated. I just knew oil was going to hit $90. Well, I had a good feeling that and backed by fundamentals and what happens at war that it was going to hit $80, $90, $100, probably $110 and maybe $120 and beyond. But I went on Polymarket and yes, a lot of people, you can gamble on Polymarket or you can have educated bets on Polymarket as well. And it just simplified my trading strategy, which was I knew it was going to hit those levels. I didn't know how long it's going to last at those levels. I knew it's going to be volatile, but I just knew at some point we're going to hit those levels. And that's what actually happened. It was the perfect trade because if you were just long on oil, you'd have to time the top and sell exactly at that level, which you can. You can have limit orders in place, but they might not go through or whatever. If you had a call option, you had to make sure the expiry date is correct and you're set on top of it. With Polymarket, it was very easy. Is oil going to hit $90 at this certain time, $100, $110, $120? Of course, there's risks within itself. You have to read the rules and everything. But that's what I did, and I shared it with, this is the conversation with Michael Burry, not this one. If I go over here to the chat and go to our private chat, and I should be over here. [00:17:02] Speaker 2: Yeah, you can see this post over here. What's going on? [00:17:09] Speaker 1: You can see some of these positions we had open. Will crude oil hit $120? This is obviously before, this is like one day into it. So, £20 in, $197 to win, and it did, and I closed it slightly before. Then we had, will it hit $100? $50 in, $222 to win, and it hit $100. $110, $10 in, $66 to win. Will it hit $90? $80 in, $213 to win. All of these hits, or at least I took profit from them on Sunday night. I don't think the $120, I think it missed it by a few cents, but because I took profit, it was basically up to 180 quid. So anyway, this is the way I played oil. And it worked great. All those positions are now closed, and we predicted oil to go up, and it went up, and there was no need to faff around with leverage positions or call options for me anyway. It seemed like the perfect way to play it, and it seemed like the perfect way to play it, and it worked exactly as predicted. So we posted that to our premium members on the private sub stack, and that was literally between a 400 and 1,000%. Some of them were more than 1,000% wins in a matter of hours or days. If you look at some of those positions, you can see $20 to $200, that's a 10x win in a few days. So yeah, I'm quite happy with those positions. I will probably use Polymarket a bit more, but again, I'm not using it as a betting market. I'm using it as an alternative to opening long positions and trading when the right time comes. Again, I don't recommend anyone gambles. I don't recommend anyone does anything like that. I recommend you using all the tools to your benefit, and sometimes tools can be like Polymarket, whether you're just using it for data, are pretty good tools to look at. Anyway, let's continue with the show. So if you have just tuned in, we're 40 minutes away from our CPI release, we've got lots of news to get through today. So please do hit that like button, subscribe if you haven't done so already, and sign up to the newsletter if you want all that information, which is the link is in the live chat. So I'm putting that in. You can get a free trial. If you click on that, there's a free plan. There's a free trial, and go and check it out for yourselves. Let me see some comments. Let's just have a, I don't want to leave anyone behind. I just want to make sure I'm looking at least all the comments. I might not read all of them, but I'm just looking at them all. Everyone missed more and more. Thank you, Ricardo. CPI will not be in our favor, says Dan Ackerman. Well, no one knows until it comes out. We are in a matrix, says human being Liz. Mark says sensei time traveling. Let us know the results before they happen. I don't think I can let you know the results before they actually come out. Hot CPI will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Yeah. Oh, my God. A hot CPI, especially a really hot CPI, that could have a massive impact on the markets. But I don't think the markets are expecting that. I think the markets are pretty much, we'll look at what the markets are pricing in. But I think eight out of the last 12 releases have been cooler than expected on CPI. I think the market isn't really pricing in a big shock towards the upside. If they're pricing in anything, it would probably be a cool inflation report. So it's unlikely. But if it does, if it is higher than expected, which is certainly possible, no one knows these numbers yet. We just have estimates based off experts and their experts' opinions are at consensus or lower. But let's say it is higher because that's certainly possible. Unfortunately, analysts don't just get it right all the time. They certainly get it wrong more often than not. Let's say it is higher. Then, yeah, I agree with you. It could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. This is even before the oil shock. So imagine inflation, underlying inflation is going up and oil shock hasn't even hit the inflation report yet. That will come next month. That wouldn't be good. Good morning, Mr. Oh, Jacko here. Cheers from Player to Carmen. Lovely to have Jacko here. Support last two Sundays ago, we did a, who started it? Martin and Vaz started a nappy sort of fun thing. And Jacko did some great donations or great super chats supporting the channel. Yolanda says, let's hit the like button. More Monkey Business says, hi, Sensei Martin sent me. [00:21:36] Speaker 3: Let me just make sure I've got the chat open over here. Okay. [00:21:53] Speaker 1: Smashed. What about gold? We can have a look at gold. Let's have a quick look at gold. I mean, gold, guys, everyone's asking me about gold now. Where were you three years ago or two years ago or one year ago or six months ago? We've been covering gold for the longest time ever. There was no one more bullish on gold than me. Genuinely, no one more bullish on gold than me. I was buying gold at 2,000, 1,500. This is only in the last few years. Of course, there's going to be people that come out and say, I bought gold at 1,500. I'm talking in recent history in the last five years, in the last three years, two years. 1,500, 1,700, 2,000, the breakout point, the final breakout of $2,100. And that was when we were looking at gold. For long-term positions, based off many research reports, based off academic research I did, based off market positioning, based off the 15-year cup and handle structure. Gold was a buy at 2,000. I was buying physical gold. Even the dealers were going, this is crazy. You're buying gold at all-time highs. Because at that point, yeah, gold was pretty much at all-time highs. They're like, oh, everyone's selling right now. You're buying. You're not going to. And I was like, okay, I don't care what you're saying. And they gave it to me below spot. That's how much they wanted to get rid of their gold at all-time highs. And now look at us. We're up two and a half times since those levels on gold. So I was bullish then. No one more bullish. Gold's going to go up. Gold's going to continue going up. Oh, everyone said I was going to crash. We crashed at 3,400. Came right down to 3,200. That's a crash. I said, no, we're going to accumulate, form this structure. We're going to continue. And we did. Everyone said we crashed from 4,300 to 3,900. That's the final one. I said, no, we're going to accumulate to the channel again and go again. And we did. And we hit our final target of $4,700 and $5,000. Now, is the risk of reward the same as it used to be? Well, if you buy and hold gold for 10, 20 years, you'll probably be fine. It's not always the best performing asset. But it keeps up with inflation, which is better than cash. Is it going to continue to go up now? Well, the risk of reward isn't what it used to be. We're at 5,000 now. Even if you expect it to go to 10,000, well, that's a double, which is great. But also, it can just as easily come down half. So you're looking at the risk of reward, not at where it used to be. My personal thoughts on gold, again, it depends if you're trading. This is a one-off event. It doesn't really matter. I'm giving you my long-term, medium-term perspective because I think that's more important for most people than a day trade on gold today. But for gold, I would say I expect it to go to all-time highs in the coming months, in this year. I think gold will go to all-time highs. I think it'll break past all-time highs and maybe go to 6,000, 6,500. I think gold is going to break through its all-time highs. And I said that when we're at 4,400 when everyone was panicking. I said gold's going to continue to go up. And we want to up another 21% once again. I don't think the risk of reward is there anymore. That means if I'm holding gold, I might hold it a bit longer and start to sell into this final rally. But silver is a bit of a different story. Silver, I don't think it's going to go. I don't think it's going to make new all-time highs and go to the moon. I think, again, silver will buy that $20, $25. No one more bullish on me than silver. Now everyone wants to give predictions of $500, $200, and $300. We were giving predictions of $120 at $20. People called us crazy. Now, $120 to $200 is probably not going to happen. So in my opinion, again, silver might not make all-time highs. It might make a slightly higher high and go to $130. It might make a double top at $120. Or more realistically, in my opinion, it might make a lower high at maybe $110 to $112. I think the highs for silver are in. That doesn't mean to say I'm 100% confident we're not going to make new all-time highs. It's just my thoughts. And that doesn't mean I'm going to sell all my silver. I might still keep some in case that does happen. There is no 100% probabilities in this space. We're talking about markets. If we knew 100% probabilities, then we'll be billionaires. But my thoughts are we won't go to the moon and make new all-time highs and go crazy on silver. I think we'll make a lower high on silver and make new all-time highs on gold. That's what my medium-term to long-term perspective on gold and silver now. Those trades were the best trades. I think probably one of our top trades in the last couple of years and even in the last 6 to 12 months. But those trades are at the point of ending. Guys, we are 30 minutes away from CPI now. So please do hit that like, Bass. If you have just tuned in, we're going to go into the report now. I'm going to quickly go through some comments and then go into the report. Please do subscribe if you haven't done so already. Go grab that newsletter if you want to see all those trades as well. I'll put the link in the live chat. That gives you a free trial and there's a free plan. Let's go back to the live chat and scroll through these. Oil going to $300. No one can dream bigger than me. Oof. I wouldn't say $300. That would be all-time highs, wouldn't it? That would be crazy. That would be a global recession for sure. [00:27:02] Speaker 3: What have I done? It's gone up too much. Oil going to $300. [00:27:11] Speaker 1: Did river USD go up or not? Let's have a green day. Duolingo stock. I saw something in the news about that. I don't quite remember what it was. I don't look at it. I don't think it's the best thing out there. Love the shiny stuff. I don't know the chart. There might be a setup. Morning, Sensei and everyone. Hello, Mihir. Lovely to have you here. Love the shiny stuff. Since 1978, but as do I. Okay, let's get into it. Please do share this out. Let everyone know we're live. Go and post this in your social media. Anyone that you think would like to watch the CPI report with us, then you can share the stream with them. Let's go into our report for CPI. [00:27:52] Speaker 2: Where is it? Where is it? Where is it? Here we go. [00:27:57] Speaker 1: Let me just quickly tell you about oil first. So day 11 of Operation Epic Fury produced some of the most chaotic official communications from Washington since the conflict began. This is yesterday. And oil markets priced every contradiction in real time. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, sending U.S. crude briefly below $80 a barrel. On the implied resumption of the transit. The post was then deleted. It was fake news. Don't trust people that tell you this. While White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitz confirmed no such operation had taken place and that the Department of Energy staff had incorrectly captioned a video clip. Within hours, President Trump posted that the U.S. had no reports of mines in the Straits, then told Iran to remove any explosives it had laid, then announced the destruction of 10 inactive mine laying boats all in rapid succession. Each post contradicting intelligence reporting that CNN had separately confirmed, showing Iran had be actively mining the waterway. No one really knows what's going on, but there's certainly been no U.S. accompanying of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude recovered to around $90 to $93 a barrel by afternoon after the correction, but the session intraday whipsaw illustrated a market that has no stable narrative to anchor against. There is no certainty in this market. The physical picture has continued to deteriorate. The Ruas refinery of Abu Dhabi, the largest in the United Arab Emirates, and the significant processing capital Gulf's crude, halted operations yesterday after a drone strike caused a fire in surrounding industrial zone. Overnight, three vessels were struck by specific projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, according to the UK Navy, with one cargo ship reporting a fire and crew evacuated. Dubai International Airport briefly halted operations this morning after two drones landed in its vicinity, injuring four people, a direct hit on the world's business international hub. KLM has cancelled all Dubai flights through March the 28th. NATO Air Defensive has also intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile over Turkish airspace, the first time NATO member state territory have been directly involved in the conflict, raising the probability that the geopolitical footprint widening beyond the Gulf. So yeah, just wanted to give some clarification on yesterday's events that moved the markets. There's no certainty right now on where we're going. We also had a senator come out and say that in the briefing that they got given yesterday, there is no clear direction for the war as well. So people are now looking for certainty. They want to see when it's going to end because the longer this goes on, the more it's going to have an effect on global inflation and recession probabilities. Also, we are waiting to hear from the International Energy Agency, the Paris body that coordinates energy policy among wealthy nations because they have proposed releasing between 300 and 400 million barrels from member countries emergency oil stockpiles. A scale that would make it the largest coordinated reserve release in the agency's 52 year history. A decision can come as soon as today. The proposal follows meetings by a group of seven energy ministers who issued a statement yesterday endorsing the principle of using strategic reserves and calling Wednesday's International Energy Agency governing body a board meeting a critical opportunity to assess supply scrutiny. For context, the previous record release was 182 billion barrels following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 global strategic reserves total approximately 1.2 billion barrels with US strategic petroleum reserves currently holding around 415 million barrels. The market's reaction tells its own story. Finally, Brent crude initially dipped on the Wall Street Journal's report confirming the proposal then climbed back to $88 to $90 a barrel, still up more than 2% on the day. Global oil consumption runs at roughly 100 million barrels per day and the Strait of Hormuz disruption has cut export capacity by approximately 20 million barrels per day because we all know it's about one-fifth the global oil passes through. So, so 100 million barrels a day is what the global markets need, 20 million barrels a day has been taken out of the global markets, so if they are going to do what they say, which is a 400 million barrel release, that will cover around 20 days of lost volume. So again, that's only 20 days, so it's great, it'll bring the oil prices down, the war might end, but again there's lasting impacts, but let's say there is, this is just a bridge, it's not really a cure to the whole situation. They can bring out record amounts of barrel, but that's 20 days of lost volume, so we'll see how that works out and if that does get released and how quickly the war ends. Vanda Harrier of Vanda Insight summed up the market view, a release of this size would make up what the market has already lost. If the proposal is confirmed, the short-term price relief for consumer stocks, airlines and inflation-sensitive sectors is real, but at the end of the day it is limited. The longer-term dynamic cuts are the longer-term dynamic cuts the other way, drawing down reserve creates future government buying obligation that will provide a structural floor under oil prices well after the conflict ends. So there's different ways of looking at it, but obviously this will have a relief on the oil market and that has been now priced into the market and might get priced in a bit further once it gets confirmed later today. But it looks like a record release of emergency oil to keep those oil prices as low as they can. But again, it's not a cure for the whole thing. The war has to end for that to no longer be an issue and ships need to be passed in the Strait of Hormuz, which they were, the Washington reported they were, or certain people reported they were, but it was fake news. [00:34:29] Speaker 2: What did, what happened here? [00:34:34] Speaker 1: Okay, let me just read some comments. Good morning. Hopefully a green day. Hello, Jim Ricketts. Welcome in. Mahir, welcome in. Three vessels were attacked today. Yes, the irony of that, the irony of the fake post. Yes. The sad part is 300 to 400 millions is a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's 20 days of things. So if this wall goes on, whatever week, then, then, then obviously we're high and obviously they're going to have to replenish those supplies at the end of the day. Good morning. David says 1978 Buckley. Okay. So now we're onto our main story of today. U.S. CPI February, 2026 cheat sheet. Let me just make sure as everyone hit the like button or is everyone a bit sleepy? Let's go over and just double check. Let me refresh. How many likes do we have? [00:35:24] Speaker 3: Likes. And then we'll come on to CPI. [00:35:31] Speaker 1: 69 likes and nearly 300 people watching. What is going on with the likes this morning? Why has no one hit the like button? I'm going to give everyone a second. I know it's early in the morning. I know people are tired. I know there's a time zone difference, but you can still hit the like button. And it does only take one second and it does help out the show. So please take a second to hit the like button. Um, nearly a quarter of you haven't hit the like button yet. So, um, let's, uh, a third of you haven't hit, uh, two thirds of you haven't hit the like button. So please do hit that like button and let's get into our report now. They can only actively pump 2 million barrels, um, per day from the reserve. It's not 20 days. So they can act, they can only actively pump 2 million barrels per day from the reserve. Um, they're not pumping it. They've already got the, well, oh, right. You mean pumping it from their storage, they can, they can only actively pump 2 million barrels per day from the reserve. Um, I don't quite know what you mean. Uh, it's 200 days trickle. Uh, I will have to look into that further, but it does, I think, uh, them releasing it is, is more of the, the story there rather than how quickly they can get it out. It's, it's the fact that they're going to be releasing it, which has the market impact. Um, but can you clarify, do you mean it takes from their storage? Because obviously they've already got these bowels. Well, they don't need to pump it from the ground, but it's talking about pumping it from their storage. Uh, Shurik Mushawo 481 in the comment section. Anyway, let's continue. Uh, US CPI February, 2026 cheat sheet. Here we go again. And I won't go through the whole cheat sheet because this is reserved for our premium members. They get this for all the events ahead of time. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the CPI consumer price index for February of 2026. It is the most widely watched monthly inflation reading in the world. With the Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC meeting in exactly one week, we'll be covering that live on the show. This is the last major inflation data point that the Fed will want to see before making its March decision. Are they going to hold? Are they going to cut? Are they going to rise? Well, I'm pretty much 100% sure, as I have been for the last year and a half, that they will be holding. Um, so, and again, that's become much more obvious as we've got closer time as well. So there won't be whatever the report is today. Even if it's inflation is sky high or inflation is very low, they're not going to, they're not going to raise or cut rates. It's just going to affect what they say. And that's what we need to watch. So, um, this is the last, essentially, this is the last inflation report that the Fed is going to comment on and have an impact on what they say and what they write, which would affect the market. So it's a big one and it's the last one. So it drops into the market already on edge for a war in Iran, Iran, a shocking jobs miss on Friday and oil that briefly touched $120 a barrel. So this is the final one we get before we actually start pricing in inflation for fuel prices, which will come next month because of the war. I actively add it to the supply. Good morning. Hello, greetings from the Netherlands. So we've got Chris in the show as well. Thank you, Shereke Mishma, for your comments. Okay, so let's set the scene. The economy is sending mixing. Let me put the chart on the screen as well. We've got Bloomberg there for now. In fact, we'll put the chart on Bitcoin selling off into this. Oh, big sell off on Bitcoin. [00:39:12] Speaker 3: Bitcoin selling it off into the report. Okay. Move that over slightly. There we go. [00:39:24] Speaker 1: The economy is sending mixed signals heading into today. February's jobs report released last Friday showed payrolls falling by 92,000 against a consensus expectation of over 50,000. Remember, we covered that live. That was a massive shock. Job losses were much, much more than expected. And we saw unemployment climb up to 4.4%. And we saw wages grow by 0.4% a month over month and 3.8% year over year, both above forecast, which again, feeds into inflation. Weak jobs plus sticky wages, which is what we got. We got weak jobs and sticky wages is the combination the Fed fears the most. We'll come on to that in a second. The U.S.-Iran conflict briefly pushed WTI crude oil to $120. Remember those trades we did on the premiums that released on the premium newsletter? All of these trades, oil at $120, oil at $110, oil at $90, about, what is it, 1,000% gains on some of these trades. Again, these are the gains before oil went anywhere, before oil was even above $80. So you can see these are the trades I put in place and shared out. And that will close on Sunday. Let me go back here. So it went up to $120, a barrel levels not seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Oil has since pulled back sharply to around $84 or $88 if you're looking at Brent after President Trump's suggestion the conflict could be nearing an end. Iraq's major oil fields are producing just 1.3 million barrels per day, down from 4.3 million before the war. The single most important context for today's number, the oil spike is not in the data. So for anyone who thinks we're going to see that the oil spike or the petrol spike or whatever, the gas spike and effects all throughout inflation, because it's not just gas prices or airlines, it's fertilizers, it's every business basically needs oil for transport or their products. So that spike is not going to be in today's reading because we're looking at February's numbers and the war only starts on February the 28th. So this is not going to include that oil spike in the data. February's CPI was collected before the conflict began. Energy inflation from the war is a March and April story. So we'll start seeing that in March and April, in the March and April numbers, that'll be next month. Currently, the Fed's Federal Reserve rate is 3.5 to 3.75% and the probability of holding in March the 18th, the next week's FOMC meeting, is at 99%. First cut fully priced, September 2026, that's when we're actually starting to see the first rate cut could be in September 2026. That's when it's priced in on the CME Federal watch tool, which you can see here. So the CME Fed watch tool shows conditional probabilities for each federal funds rate target range at upcoming FOMC meetings. As of today, the market assigns a 99% chance probability that they hold rates next week, with the first meaningful probability of a cut only emerging beyond June the 2026. So you can see chance of a hold next week, 98%. Chance of a hold in April, 86%. Chance of a hold in June, 60%. Chance of a hold in July, still the highest, 45%, with a 41% chance of a cut. Chance of a hold, and again, this is not just chance of a hold, this is a chance of what the rate will be at that date. So chance that the rates are only going to have one great cut by September, that's when it increases to actually a rate cut. The markets are pricing in that we will have a rate cut by or including the September meeting. And that actually shows you that the market is now pricing in only one rate cut. The market just a few, four months ago, five months ago, when I was telling you guys, and when Martin was also telling you guys, one to two rate cuts in 2026, the market was pricing in four rate cuts in 2026. Now we're looking at the market pricing in one rate cut in 2026 and one more in 2027. So now we're looking at two rate cuts in two years. That's what the market is pricing in. And again, here is some Polymarket data. It's great to look at this data on what inflation is going to be in today's report. So the current pricing is 2.4%, which is actually, if we go over to our page over here, this is where we're going to see the report come out first. Then we're going to go to Bloomberg and then I'll give you my analysis. In 16 minutes time, we're going to get CPI. There's three, four numbers we're looking at. CPI month over month, CPI year over year, CPI, so core CPI. So that includes food and energy month over month and core CPI year over year. Above my head, you can see the consensus. So all of these numbers here is consensus. That's what the market's priced in. That's what the market's ready for. And that's most likely what's going to happen. The more we deviate, the more we're further away from that number, whether it's the downside or the upside, the more the market moves. And CPI month over month is 0.3% is what the consensus is. And 2.4% year over year. Core CPI is 0.2% consensus and 2.5% year over year. So what we're looking at, if we go back to that report, is the market's pricing in 2.4%. And this is not the core. So this is just the normal one, which is what the market consensus is. So Polymarket says there's a 48% chance of 2.4%. That's the highest likelihood chance on the Polymarket. And that's also what consensus is. If that's what happens, the market won't move too much. However, does it always play out like that? No, because there's a 31% chance we actually come in hotter than expected. There's a 14% chance we come in cooler than expected. And a 5% chance we come in very hot. And then a 3% chance we come in market crashing hot. So I have hedged my portfolio with Polymarket expectations to the higher side because I am invested in the market and I want to be hedged. And how am I going to hedge myself? Well, I'm using this new tool called Polymarket to do that. So if it is much higher than expected, instead of having to suddenly start a short position or see my portfolio go down, well, I'm hedged. And if it does go up, I win. I don't expect that to happen, but that's the point of a hedge. So that's what I've done. So there we go. So those are the chances. Most likely it's going to be at consensus or one percentage point higher, which again, the market would price in. So if we're only one percentage point higher or 0.1% higher, then the market's not going to crash too hard because that's also slightly priced in. It will come down, but it's more when you go up 0.2% or higher is when we can see a market crash or 0.2% lower is when the market could pump. So let's go into those readings and what could happen. So we're now 13 minutes away from CPI, the biggest data release probably of the month, a week ahead of the FMC meeting. What's my expectation? Will CPI go up? I think CPI will be slightly hot. Yes, that's my expectation. But again, who knows? The point of these isn't for me to give predictions or whatever. It's for me to give you my views, how I'm positioned, how I'm hedging, the trend, and also just to see the data and apply it to my portfolio. So if we see some data of a bit hot, then I'll go away, analyze that, apply it to my portfolio, share my research with you guys. It's not all about let's get rich overnight and predict what's going to happen and pump the market today or tomorrow. It's about understanding where we are in the market. And these data releases, the reason we cover it is not to make a million dollars on the data release, although that has maybe not a million dollars, but there is great opportunities in these data release for some trades, especially when it's really away from consensus. The main point is to gather the information and apply it to our medium to long-term portfolio. But for most people, 95% of people, it's their medium to long-term or their long-term portfolio that's going to make them the money that allows them to retire early and have financial freedom. It's not going to be day trade. So that's what we focus on, what's going to impact most people. So headline CPI, what is it? The headline CPI index measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services, covering everything from groceries and petrol to medical care and rent. It is the broadest monthly snapshot of consumer inflation in the US. This is everyone's favorite measure of inflation. This is what everyone goes by. If someone asks you what's inflation, then you tend to say the CPI number. It's not the Fed's preferred, they prefer PCE. It's not why I prefer the TPI, but it's the one the market looks at the most. So it's probably the most important for events like looking at the CPI release in 11 minutes time. So where has it been? January came in 0.2%. Oh, I'm going to skip that part. The consensus is 0.3% and 2.4% for normal CPI. The estimated range is anywhere from 0.1% to 0.4% and the year on year anywhere from 2.3% to 2.6%. Citibank is saying 0.25% month over month and credits agro is saying 2.41% year over year. So here's the scenario breakdown. And this is what's great about the cheat sheets. You can always have this in front of you when the event starts. So you can see hot, what it would mean above month over month above 0.4% or 2.6% year over year. That's when we can see the markets drop, June expectations on cuts to drop and then potentially start fighting in rate hikes, which are not priced in yet in the FedWatch tool, which is the way we see the probabilities. If it's very hot, then we can see a 1.5%, 2% crash on the markets. That's if we're above 2.7% or above 0.5% month over month. And that would look at potentially no cuts this year. If we're in line, again, we look at the core number, nothing much will happen there. We might have a slight rally because people are anticipating slightly higher. A core inflation reading of 0.2% or 2.3% year over year would suggest a rally of 0.5% to 1% on the S&P 500. And the June rate cut becoming over 50%, showcasing that we're moving from September to June on rate cuts, which the market obviously will like. And then very cool would be a little bit mixed because if we're very cool, then we could actually have, if we're having no inflation or very low inflation, then people can start calling for a recession, actually. So we don't want it too, too cool either. Core CPI. So what is it? Because that's the secondary number. We're getting two numbers today. We're getting CPI and core CPI all in nine minutes time. So if you have just tuned in, please do hit the like button and do share this out. We're nine minutes away now from the CPI report. What is core CPI? Well, core CPI strips out food and energy, the two most volatile components to show underlying inflation trend. This is the number the Fed and most professional investors focus on because it's the better reflect structural price pressures driven by wages and demand. The consensus is the core number traders will look at at 830. That's the number everyone's going to be looking at. The more we move away from it, the more the market will move. A single 10th above or below expectations can move the 10-year yield by five basis points within minutes. So here is the consensus a bit different. Excuse me. You can see the consensus right above my head for core, which is 0.2% on the month over month and 2.5% on the year over year. And the scenarios are pretty similar. If it's hot, if it's very hot, then we can have a hard sell off. Equities can drop 1.5% plus. Or if it's 2.7% year over year, hot would be 0.3% just slightly above. So that would be 0.1% above on the month over month and 0.1% up on the year over year compared to consensus. That's when equities can be down slightly. 0.5% to 1%. Nothing major. Nothing structurally changes. It just builds a picture that inflation can be quite sticky. So on the day, it might not have an effect, but over time, we would probably analyze that as a big risk here on Sensei News. So crypto would sell off and cuts would be pushed past September. If it's in line, we would expect the markets to be flat or actually up 0.5% because people are pricing in it for it to be hot. So if it's in line with consensus, we can actually expect to pump. We're seeing the markets be all over the place this morning in preparation of this event. Let me move this over slightly. Cool. If we are cooler than expected, maybe at 0.1% or 2.4% year over year, we can see a 0.5% to 1.5% rally. But again, if we are very cool or negative, then we can have an initial rally based off the algorithms, but then reversal. There will be a risk of reversal because stagnation debate will intensify on that side things as well. There is a whole inflation report. You can go dig into it deeper. So when that comes out, we'll go to Bloomberg, but maybe in the future, we'll actually analyze the report as well. We'll switch to Bloomberg for this because they do cover this, but there's subcomponents to watch. There's the overall inflation. Then you actually have to read the report as well, which will tell you about the subcomponents. And these are the most important subcomponents. So if you look at Shelter, that's actually 36% of CPE. So that'll be important to watch. The Supercore, so services excluding Shelter, that's 30% away. So Powell's most cited metric, it captures wage-driven services, inflation, medical care, airfares, personal wage. January Supercore picked up month over month, despite easing annually, with wages at 3.8% year over year. A second consecutive hot print is the most hawkish outcome possible today, regardless of the headline number. Energy being about 7%, January fell 1.5% month over month. Tariff exposed goods, apparel, a new vehicle, that's important at 6%, and airfares as well. What would surprise Shelter's bounces? The January shelter deceleration up to 0.2% was welcome. If the OER re-accelerates to 0.3% plus, even with a tame headline, the market will read it as a signal that the most persistent inflation driver is not done. Supercore runs hot for two months in a row. January Supercore pickup was partially blamed on seasonal pricing resets at the start of the year, the so-called January effect in services. If February shows the same dynamic, it's no longer a seasonal noise, it's the trend. The big banks are watching this closely. So, yeah, we're looking at the S&P 500, we've got the charts in here, I won't go into the charts because we want to reserve some of these support and resistance for the premium members. Again, we've got the, let me talk to you about the stagnation narrative because, again, this is a narrative now being floated around, which I've spoken about for about a year. I don't know how the cash is going to come over as a stagnation or recession or carry trade, but I am preparing for a scenario where we are in a down year and I have been and so far we're right. And that's how I've been positioning my portfolio with the £5,000 portfolio challenge on the newsletter. That's why we've been sitting on some cash and sort of uninvested cash, which pays an interest rate. So I am waiting for more opportunity and one of the big risks here is the stagnation, stagnation narrative. Again, we're four minutes away from CPI, so stay with me, we're going to cover the numbers, I'm going to give you the cheat sheet again a minute before and then we'll go over to the breaking news. I'll give you the numbers, I'll give you my thoughts, we'll go over to Bloomberg, then I'll do an analysis and then I might give away a few newsletters. So stay with me here. Let me give you, so the stat, oh, let me, oh, the poll ended, so I might start the poll. Okay, actually we don't have time to start the poll again, let me keep that there. What are you guys thinking? Well, most of you say hot inflation. That's what I'm thinking as well. That's what the market's priced in slightly, so we'll see. Stagflation is stagnant growth, rising unemployment and persistent inflation all at the same time. If the macro scenario, if it is the macro scenario central banks fear the most, because the normal tools cancel each other out. Raising rates fights inflation but kills jobs. And again, inflation is pretty stagnant, pretty high. If they raise it, it fights inflation but kills jobs. Cutting rates protects the economy but reignites prices. The last serious episode was the 1970s US oil shocks. The parallel to today is not subtle. Why it's relevant right now? The signals are stacking up. Payroll, $92,000 in February, third job loss in five months total. Wages up 3.8% year over year. That's too hot for the Fed to feel comfortable cutting. Remember, they want to see it under 3.5%. Core PCE is at 3% annually, well above the 2% target. Oil briefly hit $120, now $84 after interventions, but that's projected to go higher. Energy inflation arrives in March-April CPI, so we haven't even seen that yet. Tariffs, average US rate up roughly fivefold to 13%. Inflationary and contractually simultaneous, so we've got that issue there as well. None of these alone make stagflation. So if you're looking at each and every one of them in a vacuum, that's not what makes inflation. All of them together with an active war in the Middle East is why the word is being used again. So equities, we've got two minutes. So we will come back to the stagflation narrative in a second. It doesn't really matter for the CPI print right now. Well, I'll explain to you more about that, but we're two minutes away now from CPI. So this is the biggest print. It comes a week ahead of FOMC. This is the last print, which is not going to include the oil shock. So the markets are watching this closely. Remember, CPI is more looked at than PPI and PC. Next week on FOMC Day, we're going to get PPI. So join us for that. Then we're going to cover the FOMC meeting. Then we're going to see January, PC and March the 13th. So a lot is going to be going on over the next few weeks. The S&P 500 looks like it wants to pull back as well. We've got all the scenarios playing out over here. So we've got four numbers coming out. Let me just reiterate what's going on. I'm going to go to this screen in one minute and 10 seconds. Hit the like button if you've just tuned in. If you want the cheat sheet, go and grab the newsletter. You get the portfolio challenge. You get the daily newsletter. You get the cheat sheets. You get the portfolio challenge. You get my oil trades from last week. We made 1,000% on oil. Go check all of that out. It's literally, there's a free trial. It's in the live chat. In 51 seconds time, we're covering CPI. There's going to be CPI month over month, CPI year over year. Then there's going to be core CPI month over month, core CPI year over year. All of the numbers are above my head. That's consensus. The more we're moving away from that, whether it's the downside or the upside, the more the market will move. Consensus is what the market's priced in. The market's also slightly priced in a hot inflation report. You can see on the polymarket data as well. So now we're waiting for this to refresh. If it comes in higher, the market will crash. And the higher it comes, the more the market will crash. If it comes in lower, the market will pump. We'll go over to Bloomberg as well, which is live over here. So let's get ready for that. So let's go over to our breaking news this morning on inflation numbers. Here we go. Okay, let's go to Bloomberg. Let's go here. What have we got? Everything is in line. Everything is in line. The market will pump a little bit now. Everything is as expected. Let's go over to Bloomberg on this news. Everything is as expected. [00:59:57] Speaker 4: These are the moments that all reserves are for. Bergen going on to say it's a perfect time to think about releasing them. Brent crude up by 4% this morning. 91.20 in the equity market. Equity futures just about unchanged on the S&P 500. In fixed income, yield was at the front end of the curve up by a basis point or so. The two-year now just about unchanged at 359. With that inflation data just crossing, let's get to Mike McKee for more. Good morning, Mike. [01:00:22] Speaker 5: Good morning, John. It looks like we come in pretty much bang on the numbers that were expected. The headline CPI up three-tenths, which puts the year-over-year at 2.4% change from the month. [01:00:33] Speaker 1: Stick around. I'll tell you how I did the oil trades a couple days ago for 1,000% gains. I'll tell you about the newsletter. And there is numbers we need to look at inside the CPI report. So stay with us. This market could reverse any second. [01:00:44] Speaker 5: No inflation numbers to worry about in this report, at least from the headlines that we've got. I'll look at the details. But remember, this is all pre-Trump war. [01:00:54] Speaker 4: Mike, this is really important, though. This is the starting point. How are things set going into the war with Iran? How are things set going into this spike in energy? Energy, which was in the 60s and is now deep into the 80s, threatening to break back into the 90s on a material basis. And given the move we had on Sunday night, who knows? We could go back to triple digits again. [01:01:16] Speaker 5: Yeah, and that is the worry down the road. And it's not just really that we go back to triple digits and it hits the headline number because the Fed will look through that and expect it to be temporary. It's when it gets into the core, when it starts some of the, Lisa was talking about fertilizer, for example. When it starts to get into some of the consumer products out there, that would be a concern. And that very much depends on how long this all takes. So we've got to keep an eye on that. I'll look at some of the underlying numbers and see if we see any problems. But going into the report, not bad. One other caveat, though, is, of course, this is biased down because of the housing numbers, because of the government shortage shutdown. So this is essentially not the same kind of reading we'll get with the PCE on Friday. [01:01:58] Speaker 4: Mike McKee, thank you, sir. We'll come back to you in just a moment. Following that read, Equity Futures just... [01:02:02] Speaker 1: OK, let me give you some quick thoughts. But we're going to have to come back to Bloomberg in literally 30 seconds when they look at the numbers deeper, because there is deeper numbers. As we mentioned earlier, you want to see what's going on behind the scenes, what's been moving, what hasn't been moving. So the full story hasn't been painted just yet. So be careful of your trades. We're seeing the markets reverse slightly. We've got that over there. OK, so the newsletter. We just released the full cheat sheet. Every single day, you can get all the news stories at a glance, the deeper news stories, the deep dives, and the charts of the day. You can get all that information every single day. You can get that portfolio challenge where we're starting with £5,000 and trying to grow it to £100,000 and beyond. Again, preparing for this year, because I think this year is a year of opportunity, and there's lots of opportunity in the market. So we're going to be preparing for that. We've also just released the net worth tracker. So if you want the net worth tracker, see where your finances are, put all your income, expenditures, assets, liabilities, your debt trackers, your budget planner, all of that in one app, free of charge. No ads, you get that for free. I don't take any of your data. There is no data. It's password protected, so the members get the password, but you keep your data. It does not get uploaded anywhere. That is a guarantee. What else do you get? You get the access to chart training course. So all of that, plus all of this cheat sheets you get for all of these data events and FOMCs. The next one will be PC on Friday and the FOMC next week to get you prepared for those and all the numbers that matter. You can get it with a free trial. So there is a link in the live chat. If you haven't got it yet, there is a free plan. There is a free trial. There is a monthly plan as well. So go and check it out while we go back to Bloomberg. Let's see if they have dug into the numbers a bit more. I don't see Mike McKee back on Russia, Ukraine. Not back on the channel right now. So let me just keep an eye out for Mike McKee for just a second. He'll be live to give us the underlying numbers. We're looking at the markets drop down slightly. They did jump up. As I said, if it comes in as a consensus, it will jump up, but wait for the secondary reaction. Let's go back to Bloomberg and they will give us some underlying numbers in a second. [01:04:13] Speaker 6: Because the flip side of this is going to impact headline inflation. If we just look at retail gasoline prices, they're already up 20 percent versus there's a bit of a lag versus when the episode in Ukraine started. So that is a real income shock. We will get headline inflation that's higher. We think headline inflation could accelerate by a percentage point as a result of this. And that means real incomes will decelerate by a percentage point. Now, usually consumers have enough savings to where they can smooth over these kinds of things. Again, assuming this is temporary, but the savings rate has actually dropped quite a bit. We've seen labor incomes that have fallen, the growth of labor incomes that have fallen. So, again, we're kind of in a weaker position in terms of the consumer. And we do think there's a potential for this to take off some from growth. [01:05:07] Speaker 7: Tiffany, do you think then that people who are looking at the Fed not cutting this year are looking to a Fed that potentially is cutting pretty significantly in 2027? [01:05:16] Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I definitely think there's a there was a possibility that, you know, that, you know, if you have a headline inflation, you know, maybe some pressure on core jet fuel prices are up quite a bit that will feed into airfares, which is within core inflation. You know, if you have that delaying the Fed, you know, then then that, you know, is potentially just means that you could have, you know, them have needing to drop interest rates a little bit more quickly as inflation, you know, as these temporary effects fade. And, you know, what we're left with is a weaker economy. Now, I guess the caveat here is is that we are getting higher tax returns and household tax cuts as a result of the one big beautiful bill act that was passed last year. So that will buffer, you know, some of the blow of this, at least in the near term, you know, as people get those higher [01:06:06] Speaker 7: paychecks. You know, I'm struck this program to this morning has been framed by Jeff Curry versus Deepak Puri of Deutsche Bank. Jeff Curry, of course, of Carlisle, this question of how much we're going to see an inflationary boom as a result of the physical world reasserting itself and the need to really stockpile some resources. And then Deepak's point, which is that productivity will overwhelm that and will ultimately offset any cost to the overall growth trajectory as a result of that. Do you think productivity is going to offset some of the inflation that we're seeing right now and [01:06:37] Speaker 1: potentially mitigate the weakness. We're waiting for some more underlying data. Give us a couple minutes and hit that like button, please. I think it's [01:06:46] Speaker 6: a little bit more interesting because, you know, productivity, at least if you, you know, kind of look at the late 90s period, you know, productivity was high. And we also had in that period accelerating unit labor costs, you know, and some acceleration and inflation, you know, at the beginning of 2000, late 99 period. I think there's differences now, though, relative to then. And the big differences, you know, is that AI has the potential to displace white collar workers, service professionals within within the United States, which is a big part of the labor market. So to the extent that you're getting wages, real wages that are being depressed by AI as we get that transition period, you know, maybe businesses are focusing first on managing cost pressures. They want to manage labor cost pressures in particular, you know, that you have this disinflationary impulse coming from labor market and wages, you know, and that offsets some of the, you know, the the inflationary impulse from the build [01:07:55] Speaker 4: market. So if you're just joining us, I'll recap for you on a headline and call coming in, in line with expectations. Month over month, CPI coming in at 0.3%. The estimate in our survey 0.3. Stripping out food and energy and all that volatile stuff. Of course, CPI month over month coming in at 0.2. The estimate 0.2. Mike McKee has been going through the details for you. So let's get [01:08:22] Speaker 5: more from Mike. This is what you say. Well, we still have some tariff effects in these numbers, John. As we go through, we can see that apparel prices were up 1.3%. They were one of the slowest categories tariff that would to start to rise. Motor vehicle insurance is down three tenths, but airline fares up 1.4%, lodging away from home 1%. Household furnishings were up three tenths, but appliances and laundry up 3.1%. And here's an interesting one. Computers were flat, but software was up six and a half percent. I'm not sure how that fits into the whole story about the software companies getting hit in the equity markets and AI, but you've got a number there that is a little bit concerning. Medical care services up half a percent. And then Supercore up three tenths on the month, which is basically unchanged from last month. So overall, if you take out energy and you take out the tariff effects, it's relatively important to see what we're seeing. The CPI slightly bias down because of the government shutdown. We know the Fed will be [01:09:26] Speaker ?: watching what we get on Friday with the PCE numbers. [01:09:26] Speaker 4: Very true. Mike McKee, thank you. Appreciate the update. Of course, this report, a bit of a snooze. The next one won't be based on [01:09:32] Speaker 1: these moves in energy. No, and that will be something that a lot of people... There we go. So slight, a couple of things concerning in that report, but nothing major. All eyes shift to PCE on Friday. All eyes shift to PCE on Friday. Remember, this CPI report had nothing to do with the war in Iran. That has not been pricing. This survey was taken before that. Neither will PCE, but PCE is the Fed's preferred metric and outcome days ahead of the FOMC. So CPI, nothing crazy to report there. Once in a while, we get everything at consensus. Actually, I don't think I've ever covered a report where every single thing came at consensus. Very strange numbers being reported there. I mean, a lot of people in the chat are saying that the numbers are cooked. I mean, who knows? Who cares? Because at the end of the day, this is what the market will base the trades off and base the market off. Of course, it matters for individuals. And I always think inflations are running at much higher rates because that's just the way I think things are right now. I don't think anyone thinks that their expenses are only going up 3% a year. Anyway, let's just look at these numbers again. So consensus was straight above us. CPI month over month, CPI year over year, core CPI month over month, core CPI year over year. Every single one was at consensus. The actual numbers were at consensus. Zero deviation. Never really seen that before. And here we got it today. And the underlying numbers, nothing majorly concerning. Obviously, the tariff shock coming in place. But all eyes shift to PC on Friday, the last data report before the Fed come out of the FOMC next week. 0% chance of a rate cut, in my opinion, for FOMC next week. And I don't think we're going to get a rate cut for months and months. So if you're holding a breath for rate cuts, you're probably not going to get them. So what we're going to do now is let me just show you this. This is an app we just released. I want to get everyone's thoughts on this. We did a little walk through in the newsletter. This is the net worth tracker. I want everyone to go and play around with it. Whoever's a premium member, of course, you can become a premium member. I mean, you can get a free trial and play around with it as well. I'll give you the link in the live chat. This is just one of the elements you get in the newsletter. It's a net worth tracker. So you can, and again, you're not uploading your data. I'm not taking your email and password for this. So I don't see the data. I don't, you store the data yourself if you do want to store it. It's to get stored in your cache. You can delete your cache or you can download it as a file if you want to come back a month ahead. I just want to make that clear because I've made that a top priority. And yeah, that's what we've executed on. Also, there's no ads or anything. So it's very clean and it's just included. So there's no additional price. You put in your assets. For example, I put gold and silver Tesla. These are all made up numbers by the way, but let's say I've got gold and silver commodities, 15,000, a Tesla that's 30,000. You can put in your growth rates assumed for each of these. So you can add an asset. You can go look at the different categories and say, I've got a property worth 400,000. And let's say the current, you can, you can say, Oh, sorry. That's the name. Let me put the, the name main house. Let's say you have multiple houses. The current value is 400,000. Let's say we expect the property market to go up and then the outstanding debt of 350,000. That all gets calculated for you. It gets put into all the assumptions. It gets added to your, um, liabilities tab. You can input your income, um, dividends, salary, whatever you want to put in. You can add assumptions. How much you think your salary is going to increase. When do you think your income is going to start? When do you think your retirement pension income is going to start? When's your income going to stop? You can go as far as you like or keep it as simple as you like with this. You can pay expenses. You can make it as complicated as putting every single expense down or what I recommend is just what your discretionary and essential is. You can also add assumptions. How much is that going to go up by a year? Then you can see your projections based off when your income stops, starts with time and income, your salary, your, um, your growth on your assets. So you can see where you'll be in five years, 10 years, 20 years. Um, you can, you can compare it to different scenarios. Let's say your current allocation. Let's imagine you a hundred percent S and P 500, your classic 60, 40, a hundred percent growth, um, growth, um, growth, um, growth, aggressive. You can see your, um, different comparisons based on your portfolio versus some other portfolios. Uh, liabilities here is very important because you can go into here, type in your liabilities. Let's say your credit card, your car loan, your home, um, mortgage. You can put your interest rates in your minimum payments, and then you can actually go over to debt repayment side of things. Um, you have to be a minimum payments in, and then over there in the debt repayment, you can choose the snowball effect. Let me just delete this one for a second and make it a bit easier to have a look at. So if you go to debt repayment, let's say you've got an extra 4,000 a month you can put towards all your debts. And then you can see how many months it'll take for you to be debt free, whether you use the avalanche method, which is the preferred one, which is tackle the highest income. You can tackle the highest interest rate first or the psychological one, go for the smallest debt first to psychologically pay off the debts. You can see how much interest you're going to be paying when you're going to pay it off by, um, and all that help there. Then you can go to your dashboard and you can find. [01:14:50] Speaker 3: Um, refresh stream. Refresh stream. Refresh stream if no sound. I think everyone can hear me, right? [01:15:12] Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. The voice. Yeah. It's still working. I don't know. Some people need to refresh their stream. Then you can go over to your dashboard and see exactly how it all plays out. The property goes into your vehicles, crypto, whatever. And then you can see where your debts are, your net worth is. And it really, really helps visualize it because too many people just keep it in the back of their mind. They don't know what's going on. They need to, everyone needs to have a clear idea of where their finances at, even before they start investing. So this is a dashboard to help you do that. Again, there's no financial advice in it. It just helps you visualize everything. That's just one of the many, many perks you get as part of a newsletter. You get the, um, daily market headlines. You get the top stock movers. You get the ad experience. You get my thoughts every day. You get my charts every day. You get my trades when I make them in the private community. You get the deep dive research. You get the event sheet sheets. You get the one-on-one DM access. You get the weekly crypto report. You get the financial planning, uh, tools. Um, Um, and the chart training course. So go and check out the newsletter. The link is in the live chat. Um, and you get all of these perks. So, uh, let me just give you that link one last time. This is the free trial. And what I'm going to do now is send everyone to Martin. Martin is live right now. Um, as well. Since he has 665k songs for space. Now, these are all made up numbers. These are all made up numbers. Okay. So there is a link for Martin. Thank you everyone for tuning in. It's great to be back. I'd love to see more of you, um, uh, uh, uh, in the newsletter. So let's build that community. Thank you everyone for tuning in and go to Martin. If you stay where you are, Martin will, um, be, uh, you'll go directly to Martin. Again, I'm not the most bullish on the markets, but that doesn't mean I'm out the markets. It just means I'm prepared for crashes. I've got cash on the side. I'm not all in, um, my thoughts, my opinions. Cheers. Cheers. Sensei. Great show. Good job. Thank you. Thank you guys. Great to be back until next time. Take care of yourselves and each other. Bye-bye. [01:17:09] Speaker 3: Oh, bye-bye.