🚨 CPI Inflation LIVE: XRP’s Biggest Test Starts Now

[00:00:00] Speaker ?: Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Thank you. Thank you. [00:04:02] Speaker 1: Thank you. [00:04:32] Speaker ?: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. [00:06:32] Speaker 2: Thank you. You are here watching the morning forecast show with inflation. Inflation today, CPI today. What are we going to get? Well, let's get straight into the news. Thank you, everyone, for tuning in. Let's get straight into today's show. We're live with CPI inflation. This is obviously the inflation print people watch the most. This is the most popular inflation print with retail audience and with institutional investors. They look at CPI inflation. The Fed does look at PCE more. That's their 2% target. But CPI, but CPI, obviously, they look at CPI inflation. It's very important for them as well to look at CPI inflation. That's what we're covering today. And logic says, is it going to be a nothing burger? Well, we don't know. I mean, the data is very important. Whatever the data is, whether it's a, if it's hot, if it's cold, if it's at consensus, that's very important. That will give us a very good idea on where interest rates are going, what the Fed's going to say, where liquidity is going to be in the market. However, that doesn't mean the market will react. For example, if inflation is at consensus, if it's at what the market's priced in, then we're probably not going to move too much. Then it could be a nothing burger, if you want to put it that way. But just because it's a nothing burger and the market doesn't move doesn't mean we can't extrapolate that information from the CPI inflation data to better be informed with our investments. So, in theory, yes, it could be a nothing burger, but not if you like studying the data and look at the data to help decide where you put your own money. So, yeah, everyone can hear me. I can see everyone in the chat saying, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, I love it. Thank you all for tuning in. Let's start off with our market watch. We've got the inflation data report in 50 minutes. You can see the timer down below and on the side, you can see what we're covering first. So, let's go over to our market watch and just see what is going on in the markets this morning. So, if we go over to our trading view and just have a quick look at the markets, we can see, let's go from the biggest gainers to the biggest losers. The biggest winner today is oil. It's up only 1.68%. So, even the biggest winner today isn't really up. And again, the biggest winner I'm talking about are the main positions. Oil, bonds, S&P, Bitcoin, Ethereum, the FTSE, NASDAQ, silver, gold, XRP. Those are the ones we're looking at in our market watch. And the biggest winner out of all of them is oil, up 1.7%. It is around $90. It has fallen from the highs of $100, $110, $120 earlier in the year. And we're sat around $90. So, that's actually an important point to bring up. Because remember, the inflation data we get is CPI. It's actually for the month of May. In May, oil was actually hovering between $110 and $100. So, oil was a fair amount higher. It was about 10%, at least 10% higher than where we are today. So, inflation, you can make the argument that, and you're probably right if you make this argument, that inflation is cooler so far in June. So, when we're going to look at the CPI headline number and also the core number, that's for May. And May, the biggest driver in inflation right now, the thing that's pushing inflation up the most, yes, tariffs is pushing it up, spending is pushing it up a little bit. But the main thing that's caused inflation to go to two, three-year highs is oil prices. And oil prices are lower now than they were last month. So, that is an important point to take away when you see this big headline inflation number. Because it's going to be a 4% print, 4% plus print, in my opinion. Looking very likely to be that way. Consensus is pointing that way. It's going to be scary headline number, 4% plus. But it's going to be a bit lower next month if we stay below $100. If we stay around $90 right now, where we are with oil. And I think we could be trending down. The more time we spend below $100, then it's below $90. The more time we spend below $90, we're going to come back to maybe $80. So, let's see if a deal comes through. But oil right now is our biggest winner, but it's nothing to write home about. The next biggest winner, which is actually a bit more important, is the 10-year bond. The 10-year bond currently sits at 4.5%. So, that is quite concerning. Concerning not for the people that are retiring next year or the next few years who have put their money away in bonds because they don't want the short-term volatility. Because remember, if you're investing in the market, you need to be prepared to be in the markets for 5-10 years. That's a long-term investor, at least 5-10 years. If you're not, then that's why financial advisors and the correct thing to potentially do. Again, we're not financial advisors here. But what people do when they approach their retirement age is they start moving towards bonds and low volatility funds because they will need the money soon. And if you need the money, you don't want it to be invested in the market. So, good for some that are retiring, but not good for most of us because we want to make money. And if bonds are producing 4.5% returns, which they are today, then people will look at the market and go, actually, if I'm going to be earning 6% on my low volatility fund or 7%, actually, let me just have no risk at all and go into the bond market where I can earn 4.5%. Or people that have made a lot of money this year might go, actually, I'm not going to be investing in the market with risk. Let me sit on cash. This AI world is getting a bit too out of hand. And they might go to bonds and bonds are pretty attractive. And if that happens, money flows out of high risk mainly and goes into bonds. And bonds are breaking out. The 10-year bond is now at 4.5%. It looks like it's going to go to 2024 highs. If we're just looking at some simple technical analysis, you've come into this pattern, this triangle bullishly. You're probably going to exit bullishly. You've broken out to the upside now. Your targets are 4.8%, then 5%. And if we break above 5%, that's when we will be hitting multi-year highs, the highest level of bonds since 2007. So that could be what happens next for bonds. We are looking like a break out towards the upside for bonds, which is not good for high-risk assets. So again, bonds, the second biggest winner today, breaking out of its pattern. If you have just tuned in, please do take one second to hit that like button. It's completely free. I'll wait. I'll be silent. You guys find the way to hit the like button. Most people, you just go down below the video and press the like button. If you're on a TV, then go. Who's watching TV at this early in the morning in the US? I'm not sure. But if you're around the world on the TV, then go and click the down button and press the thumbs up. There's no excuses. So how many likes are we on? I'm going to wait until we hit at least 150 likes. We've got about 300 people watching. What are we doing? What are we doing with likes? Let me go over here. 30 likes. [00:14:46] Speaker 1: That is ridiculous. What's going on? Excuse me. [00:14:54] Speaker 2: 30 likes. That can't be right. Let me refresh. 78 likes. Guys, we're going to go through everything you need to know for inflation. We're going to go through the market watch. We're going to go through the cheat sheet, the news, the Fed watch, the CPI, everything we're going to go through. So if you could just take one second to hit the like button, let me change one of these titles. That doesn't make too much sense. What did I say? News chart. No. Newt. Okay. Has everyone hit the like button? Let me refresh one more time. Let me go over to the screen so you guys can see what I'm looking at. We're waiting to see. So let me refresh that one more time. Nearly 300 people watching and now we've got 121. We can do it. There's still people who haven't hit the like button. What is going on? Take one second to hit that like button and then we will continue. We are obviously going to look at XRP today because it's important how it reacts today. It's important how it reacts at these levels. 105 was our target. We hit our target. We popped up 15%. We'll look at it in a second. 10, 15%. Now we're trending back down. XRP is the biggest loser on that list today. Out of those top assets. So it's very important how it reacts. So it is XRP's big test because this is the year of accumulation for XRP. And we want to know how much lower is it going to go? And how high is it going to go in the next bull market? And once we bottom out, we will be able to answer those questions much clearer about how high it goes. But before we bottom out, we want to see some targets as well. So we'll come on to XRP in a second. So don't worry. We're going to get a full dive into XRP as well in just a second. Then we'll come on to CPI itself and the cheat sheet. 143. Seven more people. Seven more people need to hit the like button. What is going on? Seven more people. That shouldn't be too much to ask. Let me refresh one last time. Have we done it? Have we done it? Have those seven people woken up and hit the like button? Thank you to everyone who has. But we've got a few lazy people in today. Four more likes. We're not going to continue. We can do it. We should do it in five seconds. Five. Four. Three. Two. One. I'm scared to hit the refresh. But I believe in you guys. Have you guys done it? I'm sure you have. Yes, we've done it. 160. That means we can head back into our full analysis. If you have just tuned in, we are looking at CPI inflation. The timer is below me. 42 minutes to go until CPI inflation. We'll be looking. We're currently looking at the market watch. Looking at the main charts today. We'll do the market watch and the charts at the same time. So let me highlight that as well. Then we're going to go over to everything you need to know about CPI inflation today. From our very own newsletter. First link in the description. It's also pinned. Which you can sign up for free. And there is also a premium plan. If you want to go ahead with it. There is a 25% discount pinned as well. Okay. We looked at oil. Biggest winner. Nothing to write home about. Bonds. Quite concerning where they are. And they're probably going to trend higher. The S&P 500. Down 1.1% in pre-market trading. The S&P 500 looks like it's topped out. The target is close to 7,000. That's my target. And sometimes it could be a little bit higher. So maybe 7,100. But I do think we have a bit more to fall on the S&P 500. The NASDAQ has already hit. If we just look at from the highs of the S&P 500 to the lows yesterday. We dropped about 5%. And I expect to drop between 8% and 10%. Maybe 7% to 10% on the S&P 500 at least at these levels. The NASDAQ actually dropped a lot more. The NASDAQ entered correction territory. The NASDAQ fell about 9%. Very, very close to entering that 10% drop. And the NASDAQ had a lot more it can fall. So S&P 500 down 1.15% on fears of the war starting up again. No one wants to see that happen. I'm just looking at the comments. Bless you. Thank you, Logic. Four more likes or else. Yes, we've got the likes. So the S&P 500 has had quite a sharp sell-off. If we go to daily candles, you can see over the last few days, the S&P 500 has sold off. And the continuation is happening today. So it looks like we're heading lower. The trigger alert is about to turn bearish on the sensor indicators. The momentum ban is suggesting we're coming down to these levels. We suggested between 7,000, 7,100. And we're well away from our 50-week moving average, which we do test every so often, which is at 6,800. Again, these momentum bans are part of the newsletter subscription. If you get it, I'll onboard you and I'll give you these indicators. But also, these are not static indicators. They're just not a trend line. They are moving averages, which will move in time. So the levels I give you today will be slightly different tomorrow and slightly different than the day after. But if you're looking at the longer-term ones, such as the deep trend, it will stay there. It will trend up a little bit every day. But it's about 6,800 right now. And the momentum ban is currently at 7,000 to 7,100, which is essentially where I reckon the S&P 500 will fall down to it before it finds some support, between 7% and 10% down from the all-time highs. And then it's decision time. Are you going to hold it? Is this just a correction and then we move up? Or is there something bigger going on when we break 7,000 and we actually go into potentially a bear market for the S&P 500? All those questions will need to be answered once we get to those levels. And also, after we see what CPI says. Bitcoin, people called me crazy. They said, it's not a bear flag. It's not a bear flag. We're going to break out and go to 100,000 when we hit 82,000. And I said, look, bear flag, why would it be different? We're in a bear market in crypto. One bear flag, we broke below. New bear flag, we're going to break below once again. Or most likely, we would. And also, the momentum ban, we didn't break it with any significant breakout. The deep trend is still bearish. The trigger alert went bearish at exactly 80,000. These indicators, as I mentioned, are part of the newsletter subscription. You get it for free if you're a newsletter member. So, what are we doing now with Bitcoin? We're approaching 60,000. That is the line in the sand. We hold 60,000, we can have a nice jump up. Again, CPI dependent. If CPI comes in bullish, then 60,000, 59,000 might have been the short-term bottom. I still think some point in September, October, we will have that secondary correction where crypto will have its final capitulation in the spare market year. But right now, we're looking at 60,000. If 60,000, 59,000 holds, brilliant. We can head up into the 70s before our next correction. If CPI comes in pretty bearish, then we can break 60,000 pretty fast. And then maybe have an earlier capitulation and heading down to our targets of maybe $50,000. That will come hand in hand with XRP. So, let's quickly look at XRP, the biggest lose on that list today. Down 2.7%. It went exactly as predicted to $1.05. I took a trade there. I took profits a couple days later. It was up 13%. I think I took profits on 115, so slightly below that. But there it is. I have added a little bit to my long-term position. I didn't sell all my position. But for me, I like to DCA into XRP. And when I say DCA, it's not just every day, every five days I buy XRP. That's completely incorrect. I did not buy XRP. I have not bought XRP for about a year and a half. I sold XRP, some of my position, not all my position, around $3 and $2.40. And then we were in a bear market. So, I decided not to buy any more until the last capitulation in February of 2026, where I bought at around $1.10 at our deep trend indicator, which was around $1.10. And a few days later, I sold around $1.50. Yes, I went slightly higher, but I sold that position and I waited for the next move. The next move was a downturn. So, I have bought some more at $1.05. And I will buy some more at $1 in case there's a sudden bounce. But most likely, if we hit $1, we're probably going to go below $1. So, $0.90 and $0.80. Those are my targets for XRP. There is a worst-case scenario where we head down to something like $0.55. And I'll certainly be loading the bag there. But mainly, I'm looking at $1.00 and $0.90, $0.80 I'll buy around those levels to add to my long-term position for the next bull market, for the bull market in 2027 and 2028, where I believe XRP will hit all-time highs and beyond. Nothing crazy like $100 or $1,000, but certainly good 5, 10Xs from the levels of $1.90, $0.80 or $0.50. So, looking forward to getting those buys in on XRP. I would recommend if you are buying these cryptocurrencies, have limit orders set up because they capitulate very quickly. They go down very quickly. And by the time you blink, they've been bought up because everyone already has their limit order set up. So, and always, prices will come down to levels you don't expect. So, you might think I'm crazy for suggesting $0.80 XRP or even $0.55 XRP, but you'll be surprised. Most of the time, the levels you don't think will come, will come. No one expected XRP to come down to $1 when we're at $3. Everyone was queuing up to buy at $3. We said $1 is very, very likely in that bear market. And here we are. We've hit $1. 105 was the target and we've hit it. So, those are the main charts. Obviously, gold and silver. I've got a gold deep chart of the day in the newsletter today. So, you can go check it out. That's coming into some interesting levels. And silver is, of course, down as well. But what we're going to do now is go over to CPI, over to your questions as well. And let's go into the cheat sheet we have prepared for you today, alongside just some of those top news stories as well. So, let's go over to the news very first because then we can just go over just to CPI. The top news stories today are, and remember, you can get these, a lot of the daily newsletter, you can get for free. If you are not a free member of the newsletter, I'm not sure what you're doing. The link is pinned. If you want to be a premium member and get all the perks, then you can have a 25% discount. But there's no reason not to be a free member and you get all the headlines as well. So, I'll go over to the comments in a second. We seem to have an active comment section. [00:25:43] Speaker 1: I'm just seeing if I haven't missed anything. Excellent move, Sensei. Thank you, Starlight. [00:25:55] Speaker 2: We are going to a recession and long bear market many years. Not a whiff of profits from AI and Dems will take control midterms, OpenAI, SpaceX, and Mark the Top. Says, Songs for Space. Yeah, I mean, I have had another discussion with Michael Burry about specifically my thoughts on these IPOs marking the top. He doesn't, he's not too on board with that theory, although he is bearish. So, I'll share that, maybe my Friday show, that conversation I had with Michael Burry in the private show for the newsletter and Discord members. Anyway, let's focus on what we have on hand today. Let's quickly tell you about the top news stories. So, Iran hit backs after US strikes. Missiles fired at three bases overnight. Markets fade. It's as another continued round for now. So, the markets are down, not really because of inflation, because we know what's coming most likely, but because of the Iran war starting again. So, if you're wondering why the portfolios are down, it's mainly because of that. Oracle's 50 billion question tonight. So, tonight we're having a big AI company reporting earnings. And remember, when these big AI companies report earnings, the whole AI industry reacts to them. So, we are expecting about a 12% swing. You can analyze that by the amount of options, the call and put options. About a 12% swing is expected. We don't know which way, but that's what the options market pricing is. So, a volatile day for Oracle coming up. All about AI CapEx, which we will listen to in the earnings school. Wall Street starts hedging AI. So, Wells Fargo, another bank, tells clients to keep their AI stocks, but sell calls against them. So, they're starting to hedge them. Keep your AI stocks, but bet against them, essentially, is what Wells Fargo is saying today. Interesting. Open AI files for September listings. So, we've now got another big AI company, one of the largest private companies, filing for an IPO in September. I reckon that's what's going to mark the top. Not SpaceX. I think SpaceX is going to pump on the day, then crash the markets a little bit. We're going to have a low be made in June. Probably lower than where we are. Some point next week or the week after, I think we are going to set a low. But I think we're going to rebound. And then the main crash will come when open AI IPOs, potentially, in September. Then we've got swipe fee. Truce wins appeal. Judge clears the $38 billion Visa and Mastercard deal. Merchants get small cuts slowly. Big, big story there. Luli limps into a rate hold. Bank of Canada expected to hold rates. I don't know if that decision has come out yet. I don't think so, but they have their interest rate decision today, and they're expected to hold. But their currency is taking a hit. Siri came out. The new updated AI Siri came out, and the share price didn't like it. We dropped about 4% on the day, and we're continuing to slide on Apple. Activist target Ashland for sale. That's another story there, as well as our cheat sheet coming up in a second. So those are our main news stories. What we're going to do now is probably go over to our cheat sheet now. So quick look at everyone's comments. Has everyone continued to hit the like button? If you haven't done so already, please do hit the like button. We're here for the CPI inflation report. We're going to keep a close eye on XRP as well. We have a poll running right now. What do you think will happen to XRP after the CPI report? A breakout higher, 24% of you. A breakdown lower, 47% of you. Chop sideways, 20% of you. I don't care about XRP, only 9%. That is very interesting. So we've got the XRP army in the building today. I love it. It's getting interesting. I'm starting to get excited. I've been, the last year, I've been in a bit of hibernation with XRP because I know it's just a bear market. I don't want to cover it too much because there's no point buying it for the last year. But now, now it gets interesting. Now we're in 2026. This reminds me of 2023, 2022, when we, no, 2023 and 2020, yeah. 2023, let me just look at the chart. I'm pretty sure it was 2023. It reminds me of that, of the previous bear market where all the crypto channels died, but we were here. Yes, we didn't have many viewers, 30, 40 people watching me every, every Sunday back in 2023 and 2024, before that breakout at the end of 2024. My stance was, I'm going to research XRP. I'm continuing to be bullish on XRP. They're going to be at the SEC every single time. It drops below 40 cents. I am buying XRP with whatever I have. And it paid off with 10x, close to 10x because my average was between 30 cents and 40 cents returns in one year. We're getting close to the point where I'm going to buy XRP every time we drop potentially below a dollar. But we want to see where it bottoms out. Maybe it's every time it drops below 90 cents. We just want to see where this bottoms out because it's the bear market year and I want to start buying more XRP with the profits of last cycle. So that's getting very interesting. About to load up on Coinbase Circle stocks. Yeah, so Joey, I will be loading up on those stocks as well. I just don't want to be too early because I've already got some of those stocks and some of the indexes. And if I miss them, I miss them. But I want to get good prices. And how am I going to get good prices? Well, I can only wait. And if I miss them, there's always another opportunity. But if I keep my money on the side, ready to buy them in at the levels I want, then that's where the money is made. And those that I am looking at Gemini, Gemini is very, very low right now. It can go lower. It's a small company. It's below a billion dollars. It's actually at 500 million. But in a bull market, no one cares what they're buying. They just want to buy crypto stocks. And something like Gemini at such small market cap can jump a lot. So Gemini is looking interesting. Circle is starting to look certainly interesting. We've got Bullish looking interesting as well. I've got some of the stocks I'm looking at on this watch list here. So we will come on to them. And there's going to be big updates in the £5,000 Portfolio Challenge in the newsletter coming soon. So any other questions before we come on to the cheat sheet? Sideways, 80% down is about $0.74 for XRP when the market's down. Yeah, 74%. It's $0.74. Yeah, it will be somewhere between $0.50 and $1. It's going to be a great accumulation zone. Gemini, yes. Chief, Sensei, thoughts on... Sorry, I haven't looked at that ETF, Nick Jones. I'll probably be researching them when I come out with the crypto pie that we're going to use for the £5,000 Portfolio Challenge. Nice, I forgot about them, says Jerry. Yeah, it's good. It's good you forgot about them because all they've been doing is going down. And that's why we haven't been covering them either. Because it's not the time to buy. It is the time to buy when they go down, but when they go down, enough. Okay, time to go over to our cheat sheet for today. This is all about CPI report. So, if we scroll down. Someone told me not to scroll too fast, so I'm going to try and scroll slower. Let's go over to our cheat sheet. So, the May CPI report lands today at 1.30 a.m. Sorry, 1.30 p.m. UK time. That's 8.30 p.m. Eastern time. That is in 26 minutes. You've got the timer on the screen. This is one week before Kevin Walsh chairs his first Fed meeting. It is unlikely to be the first 4%. Sorry, it's likely to be the first 4% inflation print in three years. So, we haven't got an inflation print above 4% in three years. And that's what all the headlines are going to be about because it's going to be a high number. The consensus, which is sort of what the market priced in based off many economists predicting it, plus data that we've got from PCE and all the other data we get. The consensus is about 4.2%. Sometimes, the consensus is completely wrong. Most of the time, it's around there. So, the closer we are to 4.2%, the less market reaction. The further away we are, whether it's the upside or the downside, the bigger the surprises. And when there's a surprise, there's uncertainty. The market hasn't priced in and we get some violent reactions. If it's higher, the market will crash. If it's lower, the market might pump. So, the consensus is 4.2%. Last month, it was 3.8%. We're trending up. That will be the highest since April of 2023. Markets that started the year asking when the Fed would cut. Everyone was going, when's the next rate cut? When's the next rate cut? Well, now price better. 50-50% odds of a hike in 2026, up from 10% in January. So, now there is a 50-50% chance. Are we going to get a rate hike or a rate cut? No one knows. And this inflation print will probably be the most important inflation print, along with PPI tomorrow, on if they are going to cut or hike. There's not many times in history where you look back and go, are the Fed going to hike or cut? [00:35:31] Speaker 1: So, we are in that scenario right now. So, let's go. [00:35:37] Speaker 2: And first, let me tell you about the number you should ignore. The reason you should ignore a number is because everyone and the media is going to shout about it, but we already know about it. Whatever the decimal, a headline starting with four will be everywhere tonight. Everyone is going to be reporting inflation is above 4%. Just ignore the headline. Everyone knows that inflation, well, the market knows inflation is going to be about 4%, but the media out there is going to try and scare you with that number. We all know that Iran war shut the Strait of Hormuz and in April, energy drove up 40% of the entire monthly increase in CPI. A headline, anywhere around the 4.2% consensus changes nothing. It is already priced in. Where we start not pricing things in is if we're at 4.4% or higher or 4% and lower. And then we've obviously got our cheat sheet table, which is for the premium members, where you can start seeing what numbers would mean what for the market. So here's what most coverage misses. This data is a photograph of May. And we just mentioned this early in the show. May is finished. May was when oil was above $100 and near $110. Now we're at $91. So we are lower. So this is out of date information. It always is. So just bear that in mind because inflation might be trending down once again. We are looking in the rear view mirror if oil stays at 90 and it looks like it wants to. And it trends back down to 80 and 70. Then we can start looking at our June CPI next month and go, actually, it's much cooler. We're back below 4%. So that's why the Fed and Kevin Walsh said himself, they don't look at the sudden shocks and want to make policy decision based off them. So in that scenario, the Fed won't be cutting or hiking. They're probably just going to be holding rates where they are. But now let's go over to what actually matters, which is the month on month CPI core number. The one digit decides a day, 0.2, 0.3 or 0.4. Let me go over to this screen and just make sure we have our economic calendar set up and our Fed watch tool. So let me refresh that. Where is that gone? Fine, I'll just get it back up. So I'm going to get the economic calendar up because that is where we're going to see the number come out first because Bloomberg is a little bit behind where we want to be slightly ahead of them. So if I just filter this and just go to the high impact ones, then we'll have a clear idea exactly when that CPI report comes out. And here it is. Let me bring it on the screen. There we go. Yeah, we'll see it here. So what the numbers are coming out in 22 minutes, we're going to have normal CPI month over month, CPI year over year. And then we're going to have the core number, which is more important, which excludes food and energy. That would be the underlying inflation. That's what the Fed actually cares about. And that's expected at 0.3 and the year over year is expected at 2.9. So those numbers at the top is what we're going to look at and we'll have them as soon as they drop. So let's get back to our cheat sheet. So core CPI month over month is the one to look at. And core is the number that's lower because it excludes food and energy. The consensus for month over month is 0.3%. That's probably the most important number today to look at. 0.3% is consensus. The further away we are from that number, whether it's the upside or the downside, the bigger the surprise, the bigger the deviation, meaning the bigger the market reaction. So core will tell us where the oil shock is contained to the fuel tank or leaking into everything else. April gave the bears the evidence. Shelter jumped 0.6% and airfares accelerated to 2.8% in a single month. The pipeline pressure is real too, with wholesale prices running at 6% annually. That is the hottest since 2022. Against that, the strongest disinflation argument in the economy, wages. Friday's jobs report was crazy because it smashed expectations at 172,000. We also got average hourly earnings and that rose to 3.4% on the year. So essentially what we got there was no wage spiral, meaning if we get wages continuing to go up quite significantly, you might think, oh, great. Wages are going up. Everyone's making more money. That will just cause inflation. So you don't want a wage spiral like you're seeing in Japan. So that was good. There's no second round inflation. But the economy was very strong as well, which you might think is a great thing. Jobs are strong. Everyone's got a job. Unemployment's at the lowest levels ever. But all that means is there is no risk of the Fed cutting rates or there's no need for them to cut rates. They only were looking at rate cuts if the jobs market and the unemployment market was very weak, which it wasn't. So we're not expecting rate cuts, especially when inflation is high. Expensive petrol with flat pay is not an inflation driver. It's tax. It destroys demand. So what we got on Friday was strong jobs, nothing crazy about average hourly earnings rising, meaning people are paying more. Their wages are not going up. So inflation is not going up underlyingly, but it's destroying demand because people have to go to their savings to foot the bill, which is, again, against everything that Trump ran for. One more edge most coverage will miss is the Cleveland Fed's inflation now cost, a model with a better track record than the professional forecaster consensus. And that has May core at 0.23%, below the streets, 0.3%. So one of these models, the Cleveland Fed inflation now cost, actually has inflation core month over month at 0.23%. That's lower than what we're expecting. And if that happens, and they do have quite a good track record, then everyone's expecting the market to go down. In fact, we might be a bit more bullish today than expected, if you're looking at that model. So that same model already pegs June headline at just 0.1% on the month as the oil pullback fades through. And that same model, essentially what we're saying is next month is already predicting that inflation will only be 0.1% because of how low oil has come this month. And the prediction markets agree, 59% of Cauchy traders price core at 0.3%, core at 0.2% against 35% and 0.3%. So interestingly, today, the consensus is 0.3% from the economists, but different models and different traders are actually pricing it 0.2%. Which, just be aware, we do have some evidence to suggest inflation is going to be lower than what the market expects. Of course, we'll find out the answer in 16 minutes time. So in plain English, the most accurate public inflation model and the betting money both think core will lean core today. And the model thinks that the inflation peak is already in. That could be the case. Inflation could have peaked. We could have peak inflation today. Inflation could be lower than what the market expects. And if you're looking at the traders and you're looking at the Fed Cleveland report, maybe don't be so bearish today. Let's go over to Kevin Walsh because we're going to hear from him next week for the first ever FOMC under Kevin. The market spent a week betting on hikes. The most powerful voice in the room has already told you he disagrees and we can't ignore the voice. Yes, he's only one vote. Yes, there's two sides of it and it's somewhere in between. There's some people that think Kevin Walsh is going to come in and it's just going to be rate cut, rate cut, rate cut because Donald Trump told him to. That's not going to happen. And there's some people that think he has no influence and it's just going to be one rate and there's only one vote and there's not going to be any rate cuts anytime soon. That's also slightly incorrect. The truth is somewhere in the middle and that middle land is where we need to also respect Kevin Walsh because he is the most powerful vote in the room. Yes, it's only one vote, but they're voting on his agenda. He puts forward what he thinks should happen and then the committee votes on that. So he has already given us an indication at his confirmation hearing. Walsh said he cares about underlying inflation rate, not all of this crazy things about oil and war. He cares about the underlying rate, the core rate, we can call it. Not one time price changes caused by geopolitics. That is a chair pre-committing to look through the oil shock. He is telling us what he's going to say next week. Next week, he's going to come out and say, I don't care about the oil shock. Of course, he's not going to say exactly like that. He's going to say, yeah, we're going to keep an eye on it. But in theory, I don't care about one time shocks and oil shock isn't going to make me change my thoughts on how to do my interest rates. His broader record points the same way as well. He argued money is too tight for small companies, suggesting rate cuts. He also argued that AI is disinflationary, supporting rate cuts. And that the Fed should drop the dogma that growth and rising pay cause inflation. Trump picked him to cut, not hike. The Treasury Secretary is singing from the same sheet, calling for one or two more hot prints and then substantial disinflation because there's nothing more transient than a supply shock. So the real tension, futures pricing a hike into a Fed whose chair is psychologically opposed to hiking on oil. One of them is wrong. And remember, when the markets fight the chair, the chair normally wins. So essentially what I'm saying here is, although he can't single-handedly cut rates, he is going to convince the board and he is going to probably do a good job because most people won't be looking for rate cuts or rate hikes. They're not going to move rates and Kevin Walsh is not going to suddenly come out and cut rates and he's suddenly not going to come out and hike rates. In fact, under Kevin Walsh, if the war ends and the war looks like it might be, obviously it started up yesterday, but we might be at the tail end of the war. And I'll say it now, if the war ends this month, we're not going to get a rate hike and we're probably going to get rate cuts. And the people who are pricing in for rate hikes might get left holding no stock because they've gone all cash. So one thing to be aware of there, yes, inflation is going up, but you need to look past today and you need to look into the future because if the war ends, oil is already down to $90. It's not at $1.20, $1.20, $1.20, $1.20. Inflation is coming down and the models are suggesting next month is only going to be 0.1% month over month. So history will tell us that that means rate cuts, not rate hikes. And don't let people scare you. Of course, if inflation goes up and war continues, then we're in a different scenario. But if things start cooling off with the war, then I'm not expecting rate hikes. And in fact, all I'm expecting right now is a whole bunch of holding rates where they are until we get some certainty. Let's go on to what history says. So we've seen this before. August 1990, Iraq invades Kuwait. Oil doubles in two months. Headline CPI goes above 6%. That's higher than where we are now. The Greenspan Fed. What did they do? Did their hike rates? Did they get scared? They didn't hike into it. It read the shock as a tax on consumers, which is what we're looking at now. It watched demand roll over and was cutting within months. The 1970s lesson everyone quotes only applies because wages were indexed and spiraling. If we're looking at the 1970s as a state of stagnation, that was because wages were spiraling and that's not what's happening right now. Today's 3.4% wage growth looks like 1990, not 1997. A Walsh self-styled student of monetary history knows both stories. His incentive is to be Greenspan, not Burns. He wants to be the person who doesn't hike into war. He wants to be the person that can look through it and start cutting within potentially months. Probably not months, but that's what Greenspan did after that war. Here's our cheat sheet. We're going to skip over it because that's for our premium members that can go to the table and see exactly what we expect for each outcome that can happen today. But essentially, three out of the five scenarios are final good. So we are looking a little bit positively going into this inflation report that's in about 10 minutes' time. And if you have just tuned in, please do hit that like button. Make sure you have subscribed as well. If you haven't got the cheat sheet, I'll post the link once again in the live chat. I actually haven't done it yet, but I'll post it now. There it is under Martin's name. Sorry, Martin, I've used your account. Anyway, there's the link in the live chat. 25% discount and there's a free plan. Click on it. If you don't want the discount, you can just go over to the free plan. And the free plan gives you lots of perks. But if you want the premium plan, there is so many perks that come with it. It is unbelievable, in my opinion. And I'm sure you would agree if you look at all the perks we provide. The daily briefings, every single morning, get all the news you need to know without any ads. All the deep dives, if there is a story that requires a deep dive. Like today, which we give you a cheat sheet for every big macro event. You get all three of the premium trading view indicators. And you guys have now seen how effective they are. The chart trading course, a three-hour course of everything you need to know academically researched. The £5,000 portfolio challenge. Big updates coming soon. Nuclear, utilities. Big, big stories coming soon for the portfolio challenge. And the crypto companies, when the time is right. The portfolio tracker. You get a full portfolio tracker app for members only. I don't track any of the data. There's no ads. It's free to use. And no data is taken. Private Discord community. You get access to our private Discord as well. The section of the Sensei.News. And you get priority one-on-one DMs with me as well. So all those parts come at about $10 a month if you go for the yearly plan. So go and check that out. Also, there is a free plan as well. So the most probable path is an ugly headline with a tame core. So these are my thoughts. So essentially, I think the headline is not going to look good. It's going to be above 4%. Everyone's going to be going, wow, this is the biggest, highest inflation in three years. Core is not going to be too bad. We might get a sharp dip and then a faster recovery. The peak of this inflation wave is probably today. We might see the highest inflation will be for the next maybe year or so today. This could be the peak of this inflation, this war wave today. Because the thing that is driving inflation this high has already peaked out and that's oil. Oil looks like it's peaked out. Look, there is a scenario where the war goes on and we're in a forever war and potentially we invade or the US invades Cuba and something goes on and oil is back at 120 and goes crazy. But under the scenarios and under our best educated guess, oil is probably already topped out. It's already reversed. It's at $91 today. Last month was at $100, $110. Now we're down. June's inflation is probably going to be lower than May's. May's the one we're getting today. So I think inflation has probably topped out today after the report we get today. The market repriced for inflation problem in a week of panic. We're already down because we're worried about inflation over the last week. It has not yet priced for next week with Kevin Walsh. People are going to get excited with SpaceX. Maybe they'll dump it on the same day. They probably will. But then they might get excited again because Kevin Walsh, the dovish-leaning chair, he is a dovish-leaning chair and he does have some authority and he does have some power, although he only has one vote. He's going to come out next week and he's probably going to say some bullish things. He's probably going to say we're not going to look at this oil spike. He's probably going to say we're not going to look at hiking rates anytime soon and he's probably going to give the market a little bit of hope. So we could be, I don't want anyone to be overly bearish about today. Yes, if inflation does come up at 4.4, 4.5 percent, then we will need to react to that. But I wouldn't be overly bearish going into this. The single risk to view is core at 0.4 percent. If April's spreading evidence repeats, the transitory thesis takes real damage and the hike crowd is right. I could be wrong and the hike crowd could be right if core inflation is at 0.4 percent or above. The tiebreaker line is the report in shelter. At 0.3 percent or lower, the spreading story dies and the relief trade is on. A repeat of 0.6 and you step aside. One sentence for the wider. Today is not about whether inflation is high. It is about whether it's spreading. And that answer lives in core and shelter, not the headline. So we'll be looking at core first. I'll be looking at the data behind the scenes to look at what shelter is on the website of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We'll be covering it from Bloomberg. And let me bring you those numbers again in six minutes time. We will be going over to Bloomberg. I'll be researching it while it comes out. And firstly, this is where we're going to get the numbers right above my head. This is the quickest place to get the numbers. And I'll tell you straight away what they are. Let me just open that. So if you have just tuned in, we're five minutes away from CPI. We're going to look at XRP. We're going to look at the chart one more time because it's getting very, very interesting for XRP holders. I'm getting, I haven't been like this since 2024, 2023, where we're starting buying XRP at 30 cents, 40 cents. Every time it dropped below 40 cents, we're starting to approach interesting levels for long-term accumulation of XRP between $1 and 80 cents and potentially that final capitulation towards 50 cents. I'm happy to start buying at 105. I did the other day. So we're going to look at XRP, but it's all to do with CPI. Is CPI going to come in above consensus, at consensus or below consensus? The number to look at is 0.3%, right above my head. Why? Well, because that is core CPI, which essentially means it excludes food and energy. And that's what Kevin Walsh is going to be looking at. Kevin Walsh is going to be looking at inflation excluding food and energy. Everyone is going to be talking about this headline rate, the 4% rate, 4.2%, 4.1%, 4.4%. They're going to be writing home about it. All the media agencies are going to try and scare people. We already know headline inflation is going to be high because of where oil was last month. And that could be the peak. But we want to do what the Fed's going to do, which is going to look at core and also shelter. We're going to look at shelter. We don't get that number. Here we get it in the report. But essentially core, which strips out that volatile food and energy industry. The food and energy inflation. 0.3% month over month. If it is 0.4% or higher, then maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it is a bit more bearish than we look at. If it's a 0.3% or lower, we've peaked and we can not be as bearish. Of course, there's other things that will push the market down, not just inflation. There is other reasons that I'm a bit bearish on the market for potentially the next year and a half to get that final capitulation, which is the AI bubble and stuff. But short term, looking at this and the Fed and the FOMC next week, we could get a rally into it based off what we get today. Anyway, a whole lot of information. Each person is different. I don't give you financial advice. I'm not telling you to buy or sell. You have to take the data and apply it to your own portfolio. Most of the time, it's better to just be long term invested and then have a fun with a small part of your portfolio. For me, I'm just looking. I don't care what happens. I don't need to make predictions because I'm prepared for every single scenario. If inflation is higher, I've got things I want to buy and I'll release those cheat sheets and the trading challenge on the newsletter today because I would want to buy them. If it's lower than expected, then I'm still going to be sat on the sidelines waiting for the price to come to me because I'm still bearish on other factors in the market. I'm prepared for every scenario. Once we get this data, I'll have more data to apply to my portfolio so I can continue to win and continue to get good entry points in for XRP mainly and also the rest of my portfolio. So I don't care what happens. I just want to see what happens so that I can be so if the opportunities come to me, I'm prepared for them. Whether inflation's up. If it's above 0.3% or 0.4%, we're probably going to have a correction. If it's crazy up, maybe 0.5%, then I'll be posting my buys as soon as possible in Discord and the newsletter. But if it's lower, then I'm going to stay on the sidelines, maybe take some more profits from my XRP position and wait for the next entry. We're going to look at the numbers here. If you have just tuned in, hit the like button. If you haven't signed up to a newsletter, you can do it for absolutely free. Oh, we've got all these memberships coming in. 1978 Buckley is giving away memberships. If you want to win them, hit the like button and subscribe. Make sure you've hit the like button, subscribe and engage in the chat. If you want the newsletter, I'm going to give you the link one last time. 25% off and there's a free plan. You choose which one you want. Click on that link to get 25% or click on that link to sign up for free. We are one minute away from inflation. We're going to get numbers straight here. We're also going to go to Bloomberg and then five minutes after I'm going to give you my full analysis on it. We are ready. We're prepared. Newsletter members have that chart ready in front of you so you can have an idea of what to expect once that number comes out. Obviously, you could have already prepared for it. Some people just like to read it and get a bit more educated rather than do anything based on it, which is completely fine. Sometimes it's even better. Let me go to Bloomberg. Let me type for this 3x so we have the most up to date timings. And we are ready to roll with CPI inflation. Let me make that a bit bigger. Okay, that'll be Bloomberg. We're 25 seconds away to go to those breaking news stories. I've got this open over here. I've got the actual report open over here. So I'll give you my full analysis as well. Okay, here we go. Good luck to everyone. Hit the like button. Subscribe. Let's see what we're going to get above consensus or not. And let's go over to our breaking news now. Lower, lower, lower as expected. I told you, I told you 0.2% was what we got on core. That was the most important. Everything else came in at consensus and slightly low on core. That is not what the market expected or slightly what the market expected. But that's good. [01:00:04] Speaker 3: 4.2% is the inflation rate for the last 12 months. And the headline CPI, that's exactly what was anticipated. The month over month for the headline is up half a percent as anticipated. For the core, it is a two tenths gain. And for the year-over-year number, it is 2.9%. So the economist survey is bang on what was expected for the total month. Now, we can look at the numbers overall and see that for goods and services. Now, this is the kind of breakdown the Fed is going to be looking at. Goods prices were down a tenth of a percent if you take out food and energy. And service prices were up three tenths. I'll look for additional breakdowns of where the price action is. And I guess, I'm guessing, well, I'm seeing on the screen, John, that we're having maybe a little more market reaction to an exact hit for economists than I might have expected. [01:01:08] Speaker 4: Mike, sometimes a meet is a beat. It's better than expected. Yeah. We had some very hawkish expectations going into next week. I can tell you that core CPI month over month, it was a very small downside surprise. But a downside surprise, nevertheless, it came in at 0.2% against... Here we go, Bitcoin up, crypto up. I wouldn't buy into this. I'll give you my thoughts in a second. To Mike's point, you do see a spike in equities just off the lows on the S&P 500, on the Nasdaq, on the Russell this morning. Equities shaping up as follows on the S&P 500, down just seven tenths of one percent. It was down a little bit more than that. We turn to the bond market now and check out yields. Yields were pushing just a little bit higher at the front end of the curve, by a few basis points earlier on this morning, now just about unchanged at 412.24. So inflation, not as hot as expected, looking at core CPI month over month, in line with expectations basically everywhere else, going into this meeting, a week today at the Federal Reserve. [01:01:59] Speaker 5: It took off the worst-case scenario, which was an upside beat that would really raise the heat for the Federal Reserve. And also, I will point out something else that people have mentioned is that earnings are not keeping pace, at least the earnings of individuals, maybe the earnings of companies are, but not the earnings of individuals. That declined 0.7% when you take a look at the real metric in this latest reading versus negative 0.7%. [01:02:23] Speaker 2: I am looking at the numbers. I will report back to you in a couple of minutes. Let's continue with Bloomberg. [01:02:27] Speaker 5: 3% in the previous one. So with respect to spending power, this does diminish the spending power based on wages and the wage gain that's not exactly keeping pace with inflation. Mike, we'll give you a second and third look. [01:02:38] Speaker 4: Give us a second look at this data this morning. Where's the little pop coming from? [01:02:42] Speaker 3: Is it more than just energy? It doesn't look like it's a whole lot more than just energy. We saw gasoline prices up by 7/10 of a percent. And that is a significant, I'm sorry, by 7%, which makes more sense. And that's up from last month. So we're seeing a big increase in gasoline prices. But most everything else is up slightly, not up a huge amount. I'll continue looking through this, but things like apparel up 3/10, very similar to last month. Medical care services were up half a percent. [01:03:14] Speaker 2: Okay, let me tell you my thoughts. So I've looked at the sheets and what we're looking at now is, let me give you the headline numbers. Because again, you have to look through the numbers and that the shelter. So what's happened is core is at 0.2%. Shelter is at 0.3%. This is the core scenario. If you look at the table that we put in the newsletter, that is the core scenario. That's what I was anticipating because I looked at the numbers and I said, actually, it's going to be a bit lower than expected. So core is at 0.2%, shelters at 0.3%. That is the core scenario. And the scenario where everyone said inflation is going to be going up on all the different metrics is actually not true. So what I'm expecting now is Bitcoin to head towards maybe 64,000, the stocks to firm up a little bit, dollar will come down a little bit, and the hike expectations will start to drop off a little bit. This is exactly what the Cleveland Fed and the traders market called and that's why we reported on it. The headline numbers, this is the bigger numbers and scary numbers. CPI was at 0.5% month over month, which was in line and 4.2% year over year in line. This is the highest since April of 2023, but it's fully priced in. There's no new information. Core was at 0.2% month over month. That is a beat. That is cooler than the 0.3% expected. That is the number that moves the rate pricing and that is the core number lower than expected. Shelter. This was very, very important. 0.3% month over month. That half from April is 0.4%. That means rent is up 0.4% and OER is up 0.3%. Why this matters is April scare was a blip. It doesn't look like it's a trend. And that was very, very important to see. The biggest component in the index is back at disinflation pace. And the biggest part of the index is shelter. Energy is still bigger than ever, but that's old news. 3.9% month over month. Now over 60% of the entire monthly increase. April was 40%. So 60% of the reason that we're up was because of energy. Gasoline was up 3% month over month and 40% up year over year. Energy is up 23.5% in total year over year. It matters less than actually looks. May is the highest oil prices were. Oil is already down. It's already at $91. So this would be expected to certainly cool next month if we keep oil prices low. And the rest is core. And it's all quietly disinflationary. Core goods, negative 0.1%. New vehicles, negative 0.3%. Medical commodities, negative 0.7%. Used cars, flat. Motor insurance, down 1.7%. Transportation services, down 0.6%. Airfares, up 2.7%. And that's the only one that's worth looking at. Airfares up 2.7% because food is up 0.2%, which is cooled from 0.5%. So if you take out fuel, there is almost no inflation in today's report. So 4.2% headline. Petrol up 40% in a year. CPI at 4.4%. That's the consumer lived reality and tonight's story. So hawks will look at airfares and say this is the biggest concern, but they lost their best argument, which was shelter. Shelter was the concerning thing and shelter's down. So there we go. There's the report. What are your thoughts? We got it spot on. I'm very happy we got it spot on because I spent literally five hours researching this, putting the cheat sheet together, looking at all the different models and we got it exactly right. So again, what does that actually mean? Not too much. Look at this. Markets up. It doesn't mean too much. There's obviously major concerns in the market right now. It just means we can have a relief rally. It just means we're positioned nicely for SpaceX on Friday. It means that next week with the Federal Reserve meeting with Kevin Walsh, he's going to have no reason to be very hawkish. So that's just going to be potentially good sentiment for the next couple of weeks. Pair that with the Iran war. If that ends, then the June lows might be in and then we can revisit them in September, October. So this is the reason I was slightly bullish and here we are. Could we turn over? Maybe. But inflation, not as concerning as once fall. Now we go over to Martin with his analysis on it. Not many people expected it. Many people in the chat said it's going to be higher, but sometimes you have to go against people because you do the research. And I'm sure many people didn't spend eight hours researching this last night. So I'm happy because I got it right. But again, I do think lower prices will come. I'm specifically talking about inflation and what Kevin Walsh is going to say next week, which is turned a little bit bullish now and we don't have to be as hawkish. There are definitely other concerns. Be prepared for every scenario. Let me see if Martin is live right now. He is live. Brilliant. So let's send everyone over to Martin. Thank you everyone for tuning in. The link is there. If I can ask everyone, if you haven't subscribed to newsletter yet, there is even a free plan. Do subscribe to it. Here is the link. There is a 25% discount. Let me give it to you now. Where is it? Where is it? Where is it? Actually, should I give you a special link? I haven't given this link ever before. How many people are watching? I don't want too many people to use it. Maybe I'll put a limit on it. I might give you a very special link to get the newsletter for less than a dollar. Shall I do it? I've always thought maybe I should just for a good day. And today I feel good because the research was worth it. I'm going to do it. Okay. I'm going to limit it to five people. And then I'm going to end the show. It's good because at the end of the show, most people who only just care about looking at the number of left, the people that care about the community and the family are probably still here. So let me give you that link for anyone who hasn't subscribed yet. Let me find it. [01:09:53] Speaker 1: Let me find it. I've kept it somewhere safe. Where is it? Special offers. There it is. CPI special. [01:10:03] Speaker 2: It's going to give you 99% off for the first month. You can try the newsletter and we're going to have the SpaceX special. We're going to have the FOMC special next week. You can get all of these important events that are coming up in the next month. You can get them all for 99% off. And here's the link for the next five people. This is going to go incredibly quickly. This is going to go so quick. I imagine 99% off for your first month. I hope I've done that right. Let's end with that. Good luck, guys. Good luck to the people that get it. I thought I would give back a little bit today. Five people can get it. It will go in seconds. If you haven't got the newsletter yet, 99% off for your first month. You can cancel it straight after. Good luck to you guys. I thought I would give back. Now let's go over to Martin. Here is his link. Thank you everyone for tuning in. [01:10:53] Speaker 1: And I'll see you guys probably tomorrow with PPI. We'll see. Until next time, take care of yourselves and each other. Bye.