🚨 LIVE: CPI Inflation REPORT! (GET READY)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: holy shit oh oh man folks am i live am i live oh my fucking god i was caught this is see this is how this is the problem it's been so long it's been so effing long i've done a live stream that i completely forgot to hit the like button i have been talking to myself for the last 20 minutes it's 6 30 now i was live at 6 15 yeah i've been talking to myself for the last 14 minutes i literally went through so many things this is so frustrating i went through so many things i went through the entire presentation i asked you guys so many questions and no surprise nobody was answering nobody was answering those questions because i was like wow today the chat room is really really quiet there's no engagement because i was asking all these questions and i wasn't getting any responses because i wasn't live guys i'm so sorry i'm finally here hopefully the audio and the video is working well so let me know in the live chat if everything is working well the audio and the video just want to make sure that there are no tactical difficulties oh man this is so so effed up it's crazy um anyway so thank you so much for joining everyone shout out to anthony uh renee tessa john richard john uh renee again ken ken casper we got nikki uh claudio alberto stefan nicholas everyone thank you so much for joining i do apologize uh because i was live for the last 15 minutes i just did not hit the live button and no surprise i wasn't getting a lot of responses from you guys and um it was just me talking for the last 15 minutes anyway so thank you so much for joining today is inflation day bright and early in less than 30 minutes we're going to get the cpi numbers for the united states inflation number is very very important that's really what's going to dictate interest rate policy from the federal reserve fomc is going to essentially take the inflation data and they're going to uh project out what the inflation numbers and what of course the interest rates are going to look like so thank you so much for joining i really appreciate you all it's been a long time since we've done one of these live streams so for that reason i'm uh that's probably one of the reasons why it took me some time to kind of re-figure that out so uh but yeah do do definitely uh participate in the poll as well because right now we've got over 100 votes i want to get this number to at least 500 in the next 30 minutes i want to get a lot of data and a lot of expectations from you so definitely do vote this live stream for the next two hours is for all of you guys uh stocks fundamentals technicals macros recession expectations inflation interest rates we are going to cover it all okay so in the next 30 minutes cpi numbers come out we're going to break those down we'll talk a little bit about the market's expectations i've got lots of really really interesting information to share in this live stream we got some expectations from goldman sachs from jp morgan from the actual consensus from all these other institutions we're going to break all that down and uh and of course traders and investors are waiting worldwide uh just patiently at the bench uh waiting for those inflation numbers so once again thank you so much for joining it's been a long time it's so good to hear and see uh all of you uh once again so again thank you so much for being a part of our morning inflation live stream so this right here is goldman's acts by the way let's just run through the um expectations first and then we'll circle back to uh some of the institutions and some wall street banks and what they're expecting from inflation but month over month the consensus is 0.0 so no change expected year over year 3.1 um so that again is headline inflation and core inflation is at 0.3 percent with uh your rear uh expected at four percent so month over month for core which is excluding for the more volatile food and energy at 0.3 percent and your rear at four percent uh as well so those are going to be the core expectations core inflation expectations and really when it comes down to the federal reserve uh they focus on core inflation more right core inflation is really what matters um for the federal reserve it's not headline it's not um anything else with respect to any specific prices but it's really core inflation more specifically core pce the personal consumption expenditures is what the federal reserve is really focused on in bringing down to two percent sub two percent to get down to their target uh this right here is going to be inflation now casting and for november uh the expectations are for headline cpi month over month to have not changed at all negative 0.01 percent core to be up 0.33 pce to be also flat at 0.08 percent and core pce to be up 0.28 percent on a month over one basis and year over year it's expected at over three percent headline cpi and core expected at just a little bit over four um as well and then finally we've got uh 2.86 percent for pce and core pc at 3.46 percent all these numbers are still above the fed's target but there's a big but here what i want to mention is that this is simply the rate of inflation which is slowing down something that we have discussed in our previous videos and that is to say that yes from back in june of 2022 when it was at 9.1 percent we have come down to 3.2 which is great but that doesn't mean that prices are going down it's a huge difference this is simply telling us the rate of increase on a year of year basis that has slowed down from 9.1 to 3.2 percent this does not mean that inflation is down 50 percent or 60 percent or 40 it simply means the rate of increase in prices has gone down on a year of year basis from 9.1 to 3.2 percent that is all that means because overall inflation if you take a look at prices in general are still up this right here is the chart that represents that and you can see that since 1915 right so almost 100 years ago prices were significantly lower the cpi price index was at closer to 10.1 and it's now sitting at well over 307. so prices in general have increased it's just the rate of increase that has now slowed down uh significantly so luis thank you so much for the donation and again if you have any specific stocks i would really appreciate you guys um donating if you want to to kind of get a full detailed analysis i'm happy to go over the fundamentals and technicals for um specific companies so louise just give me a couple minutes and i will come back to vc um we'll do an analysis on that stock here uh may knows caddy yesterday i've realized the nasdaq s&p 500 ratio is 3.15 as it was in the bubble of 2000 so uh maynos could you elaborate a little bit what ratio are you looking at the nasdaq to s p 500 is that the index levels because yes i mean if you take a look at the uh nasdaq it's at 14 400 s p is at 4600 so if you do the math uh 14 400 divided by 4600 yes that's at 3.13 so i'm assuming that's the ratio that you are mentioning in your comment um but it's really just the increase in overall uh growth and of course prices that we have seen um for for this ratio but that's actually quite an interesting way to look at the market uh sort of valuations uh but i don't know how much weight it actually has i mean clearly the nasdaq's outperformed the s p over the last 10 20 years considering that nasdaq's you know has growth in tech as a bigger contribution to the overall s p 500 which has over 500 companies and it's very market cap weighted so is the nasdaq but nasdaq definitely has more weighting uh to to those tech and growth companies so uh but but i'll come back to that i think that's a very simple and interesting way to look at overall market valuations uh but first i want to go over to those meeting probabilities as well so tomorrow we've got the fed meeting so fomc meeting starts today but tomorrow is the release of the policy statement and uh and also the scp that's the summary of economic projections and interest rate expectations as well and now the market's pricing in for a pause again a 98 probability the federal reserve is not going to do anything tomorrow and keep rates steady until march of next year and then five five rate cuts priced in all the way through december 2024 so in a year's time market's expecting rates to be down to four four point two five percent now the market does carry a lot of repricing risk as we have already discussed because the market's pricing in five rate cuts and the federal reserve how many rate cuts has the federal reserve told us how many rate cuts has the federal reserve mentioned in their summary of economic projections i want these live streams to be engaging okay i want you guys to engage comment chat discuss and there's going to be a lot of questions and i'm going to see who's been doing their homework so in their summary of economic projections how many interest rate cuts is the federal reserve penciled in what have they put into their summary of economic projections how many what's the number i want to hear from all of you in the live chat definitely do comment uh and also do vote for inflation expectations the poll that we have going on right now whether you believe inflation is going to be above below or at consensus in less than 30 minutes when cpi numbers actually do come out so let me know in the live chat uh peter says two how many people agree how many people believe that it is two how many people believe that it's actually more three four or it's less one carlos says two so i want to hear from more and more people how many interest rate cuts is the federal reserve pricing in or penciling in to their summary economic projections so mark says two def says two sai kamal says two rate cuts i'll give it a couple more minutes i want to see so kevin says five uh but this right here is market's expectation right and that's why the market does carry a bit of a repricing risk because like i said market's pricing in five and the federal reserve has expected or penciled in and the answer is two so you guys are absolutely right a lot of you were correct it's two rate cuts is what the federal reserves penciled in to their summary of economic projections uh now that will be subject to change most likely tomorrow when we get that report the summary of economic projections and i will be live to cover that as well so yes it is indeed two now the federal reserve on the other hand has also penciled in one more rate hike for 2023 and the market's not buying that bluff market's thinking that jerome powell has been hawkish he's not going to raise rates anymore we are done with rate hikes and 98 probability that we're going to pause but of course the federal reserve still penciled in one more rate hike which it's possible that they don't actually end up doing that and the market's pretty much uh priced in a pause it would be a huge surprise if the federal reserve ends up hiking tomorrow it would be a huge surprise and again less than two days in other words tomorrow is when the meeting is uh and the press conference and the summary of economic projections and the statement will be released so let's go over to some expectations from goldman sachs okay so if core month over month comes in less than 0.2 percent um then the s&p's reaction is expected at 0.8 percent or higher uh if it comes in at 0.2 and 0.3 percent s&p is expected to be up 50 basis points uh 30 to 40 basis point increase month over month s&p could be down up or down 30 basis points and if it's over half a percent in core inflation s&p could actually be down over one percent now the problem with these type of predictions is that they are quite irrelevant and useless to begin with and the reason for that is because we could know like we could possibly know what the inflation numbers might end up looking like in other words what what print we're going to get in less than 30 minutes and still not know how the markets might react that's the beauty of the market is it could yeah we could gauge whether the market's going to be higher or lower but we still might not know by how much is it going to be up 50 basis points one percent 1.2 down 30 basis points we're still not going to know considering that there's so many variables at play this right here is from jp morgan uh they're putting in a two and a half percent probability on headline month over month printing at 0.4 or higher which obviously would be a very very hot print meaning that it would be uh brutal right it would be pretty bad 0.4 or higher would not be great and it would not be well received by the market and that's why they're expecting the smp to be down 1.5 to 2 percent uh if it's between 0.2 and 0.3 percent this is a headline month over month which is a 25 probability according to jp morgan smp could be down 50 basis points to as much as one percent and if it prints in line with consensus uh which is zero to 0.1 percent smp could be up 25 to 50 basis points a very very muted reaction and the bond market could also have a very neutral reaction to this print now they also have a 22.5 probability for deflation which is actually quite surprising in my opinion they've got a very high probability that inflation actually comes in below expectations and we come in with a little bit of deflation at 0.1 to 0.2 percent and that will certainly be very bullish for the market and the smp could add 75 basis points to as much as 1.25 percent and they've got a five percent probability that inflation month over month decreases by 0.2 percent uh or more and in that scenario obviously it's going to be very bullish i mean the markets will absolutely rip higher and they expect smp to add 1.5 to 2.5 percent now these right here are all the expectations from all wall street banks uh which i'm going to break down very very quickly and then we're going to jump into the markets and take a look at how the nasdaq and the smp is doing but we've got scotia bank here expecting euro rear at 3.1 uh core expected to be four percent cibc 3.2 3.9 uh we got seb 3 and 4 we got socgen at 3 and 3.9 we got goldman sachs at four percent for core morgan stanley four percent for core td securities four percent for core barclays at four percent city four percent pretty much everyone's at four percent except for b of a so bank of america expecting 4.1 on um on a year of your basis this is core inflation by the way and ubs at 4.1 on a year of your base as well kind of in line with b of a so there's only two banks that are expecting 4.1 uh which would be a little bit higher than the previous number so previous number of course was four percent if you accelerate to 4.1 that's going to be bearish in my opinion for the market but everybody else hsbc jp morgan uni credit we got barclays city rbc uni credit td securities morgan stanley they're all expecting four percent to be that core inflation number so we'll take a look at of course what the numbers like end up looking like in about 17 minutes so very quick analysis on vc uh that's going to be vestian corporation for luis uh market caps about 3.4 billion a couple things i want to point out the volume is actually quite low 344 000 shares so it's not like a heavily traded stock and uh on an annual basis seems like the revenue has been pretty stagnant with slight increase in 2022 profitable company uh global technology company which engages in design engineering and manufacturing of electronic products automotive vehicles and supplies automotive parts no wonder the margins are actually quite low for the business only 3.3 profit margins no dividend yield and uh on a technical basis um it's certainly down from its recent highs 28 29 it's been actually quite volatile it's not really giving us a very sort of clean follow through um and we have seen a lot of volatility for the stock as you can see week after week it's going up down sideways it's been a lot of um consolidation but support level is going to stay put at 90 to 93 dollars uh and resistance all the way up to here at 169. so it definitely does have a pretty wide range of about 70 to 85 percent within which it's been trading so support level is going to stay put down to 92 93 dollars for vc and from a valuation perspective very quickly um 22 times earnings a little over 10 times cash flow under one time sales so it's not it's not super expensive it's quite reasonable but i'm assuming the growth expectations are also uh actually quite good um from 550 they're expected to go up to 12.87 so that's actually very very strong growth rate for for vc okay um folks definitely do vote on our poll 174 votes right now we've got over 250 people watching definitely do drop a like on this live stream i would really appreciate that so it gets pushed out to more and more people let's see if we can at least get up to over 100 likes on this live stream i would really appreciate that and definitely do vote and participate uh on the poll and what you're expecting from the inflation numbers are we going to be above consensus below consensus or at consensus for inflation numbers so this right here is the consensus and make your predictions place your bets before the cpi numbers come out in under 15 minutes uh this right here was the previous month october cpi and uh energy is in full blown deflation right now so fuel oil electricity even uh gasoline it's been selling off a little bit over 21 15 on a year over your base basis and of course everything else has been somewhat higher on a year basis except for used cars and trucks down 7.1 medical care services down two percent um and we've also got energy overall that's down over 4.5 percent um shelter prices again big wild card it has been slowing down in the rate of increase so if you come over to shelter here uh you'll notice that we are seeing it slow down from 8.2 percent now only up 6.7 percent on a year over year basis so it is slowing down pretty well but we are still nowhere near close to deflation and that's actually in my opinion one of the reasons what are the incentives for the federal reserve to start cutting rates 2024 in my opinion is actually going to be a very very big year um for the market because it's going to be a very political year uh not only do we have the national elections in india we've also got the presidential elections over in the us and that collides and coincides with each other once every 20 years so very very big year lots of policy changes hopefully um and potentially and of course the market's going to react in certain ways i'll do a specific video going over how the markets have performed when there's political years in the us but then there's also elections in india so we'll do like a comparison analysis on what that ends up looking like for the market so uh david thank you so much i appreciate it um what time is it over here it is about 6 45 pm so it's actually not bad at all uh much better than uh well actually i would i would argue it's different i mean dubai it's like of course an hour and a half before india uh market opens here at 8 pm and dubai opens at 6 30 pm but it also closes early in dubai which is a lot easier for me uh over here the market closes at 2 30 or 3 in the morning so that definitely can be somewhat uh frustrating sometimes um stefan i'm going to be doing a video on walgreens very soon so i know there's a lot of questions on walgreens uh we'll be taking a look at it in a more specific video uh can anyone tell when the cpi will be available so it's going to come out at 8 30 a.m eastern so in 12 minutes we're going to get the cpi numbers um and of course we'll take a look at the market's reaction and how we are doing we're going to put together the s p the nasdaq uh of course the bond market is going to be part of the analysis as well because it has certainly been selling off s p 500 over here right now is up 21 basis points so this is where we are we're going to take a look at the market's reaction of course and qqs are up 33 34 basis points i've got another video coming out that's going to go over the rebalancing of magnificent seven stocks because um that's really one of the reasons why we saw a heat map like this where these seven companies were down the magnificent magnificent seven the core seven were down uh significantly yesterday and yet the market was up um on the day does anybody want to take a guess take a guess on when was the last time the magnus magnificent seven companies these seven stocks the large cap tech seven companies microsoft apple nvidia google meta amazon and tesla when was the last time what year these these seven stocks dropped and yet the nasdaq was up on the day when was the last time this happened i'll wait for some of the guesses here but what year did magnificent seven sold off on the day and the nasdaq was up when was the last time you witnessed this it's actually quite crazy that it hasn't happened in such a long time but but but let me know in the live chat what you think what year so joel says 2016 let's see so joel says 2016 2008 anthony says oof okay those are some pretty good guesses 2020 renee come on guys come on we've got over 300 people watching i want to hear more engagement i want to see more comments more questions more conversations more discussions group i said i don't think it's ever happened to be honest till yesterday fair fair because that is quite odd if you really think about it the largest seven companies the tech the big magnificent seven selling off and the nasdaq was still up that is quite unusual um but let me know what year you believe this happened before yesterday kevin says 2009 sanji says 2008 2001 2008 2020 so the answer is 2012 2012 was the last time these magnificent seven stocks sold off and the nasdaq was higher and it's not happened in over 11 years just think about that for a second in over 11 years we've never witnessed these seven stocks selling off while the nasdaq pushing higher absolutely insane how much weight and how much concentrated concentration we've seen in these companies all right everyone so 10 minutes to go 10 minutes to go uh for inflation numbers uh the bond market right now so the 10-year yields are dropping back under 4.2 percent so 1.28 percent decline here we've got the qqqs up 33 we got the spy up 20 and the dollar index is also selling off a little bit over 40 basis points with crude oil down over one percent so back under 71 bucks a barrel volatility is muted down about 40 basis points a little bit under 12.6 and bitcoin and ether also uh pushing back higher after the sell-off that we've seen uh over the last couple days uh you know i did miss your predictions for cpi so there's not really any predictions but there are again some consensus general overview of what the cpi numbers are going to look like my expectations are very simple if it comes in hotter than what the expectations are which i don't believe it's going to considering that energy prices have been coming down energy prices are indeed lower um shelter prices have been i guess a little bit up there uh but the rate of increase has been slowing down and of course food prices have also slowed down a little bit in the rate of increase it's possible that we come in with a little bit of a better print which could lead to some market momentum on the day today so again it's very simple if you come in above consensus market's not going to like that very much because it's going to reiterate a possibility for a potential rate hike it's going to drop those expectations for rate cuts and the market's not going to like that very much but if you come in below consensus or better than consensus then that reiterates that soft landing scenario and the markets could really see that as a big positive catalyst to push higher um all right folks you know what time it is we're going to do a quick quick video i want to hear from all of you where are you tuning in from what what part of the world are you joining us today uh for these inflation numbers so definitely do comment in the live chat um so i can give a shout out to each and every one of you uh and and thank you and appreciate you for joining in uh this morning for our inflation live stream and i'll get back to all the questions here frank good morning caddy love to hear your thoughts on swav looking like a super cheap underappreciated stock i'll definitely take a look at that frank will come back to it any thoughts on asml time to take profits or is there more up catalyst so mark i love asml i'm gonna hold on to my position right now i'm up i think over 12 15 percent we'll continue to hold on to that position at the moment so comment where are you guys joining in from i would really appreciate that shout out to each every one of you so we got warsaw poland we got texas portugal saudi arabia maryland germany slovakia noida that's interesting that's amazing my brother is joining me today greece we got puerto rico we got india california malaysia dubai croatia los angeles spain vancouver uk london singapore san diego netherlands canada uh we got phuket thailand the uk the us good morning from boston i love boston always want to visit boston athens greece tell me chris what's the best time to visit greece i'm planning a trip next year we got canada we got denver we got singapore awesome awesome thank you so much everyone for joining in i really appreciate all of you and uh it's it's actually quite interesting always that we take our time in the morning uh to jump on this live stream look at the inflation data look at the uh market expectation markets reaction boba says your neighbor gujarat wow really gujarat is my birthplace that is awesome that is awesome so so yeah coming back to go to gal you guess says that's awesome be hard dominican republic nvc montreal jakarta new york chicago singapore dallas texas chris says september or spring perfect i'll keep that in mind so again thank you so much for joining you guys and now we are less than six minutes away for the major inflation numbers over in the us i'll do an audio check here very soon so just so we are good with respect to the audio and the video and uh and then we should be all set with those inflation numbers tomorrow fomc another live stream coming your way and we're going to go over to the federal reserve's website and we'll take a look at uh the summary of economic projections because you know this is really quite an interesting sort of environment in 2024 because i want to okay so what are the four reasons for incentives i've highlighted why the federal reserve will cut rates what are the four things i've mentioned in my videos the federal reserve would need to see so that they will be cutting rates what are the four things let me know in the live chat i want to hear um what you uh if any if you guys have been doing your homework and of course if you remember what the four things were in other words why the federal reserve would end up cutting rates what are the incentives so to speak for the federal reserve to cut rates uh david yes let's meet in florida next year i'm planning on being there sometime next year we'll definitely uh meet up and uh we'll uh we'll go out have a nice dinner lunch drinks um so okay leonard says my prediction is 3.1 percent and uh 3.6 for agp0101 so frank says recession deflation black swan and politics yes exactly correct those are the four reasons for uh incentives for the federal reserve to cut rates because the federal reserve does need something to fix they need something to fix otherwise they won't be changing policy um and those are the four things that are the most likely incentives for the federal reserve i think the biggest one which could be under underappreciated going into 2024 is politics i think it'll be a very political year and um of course the current you know the uh the current party that's in office will definitely would want interest rates to get cut as quickly as possible so that it helps support the borrowing the spending the saving it kind of helps flourish the economy and uh makes gives less of a reason for the other party to come after the incumbents um so again it's going to be a very political year that could actually be one of the reasons why the federal reserve could end up cutting rates but again jerome powell has time and time again said that they are independent they are independent of what fiscal policy or what political sort of party is in office they don't want to focus on that their main goal is monetary policy and they really want to serve the people and they want to focus on creating good labor market and lower inflation but you never know what's going on behind the curtains right you never know what's actually happening uh with respect to policy and what are the main reasons to why they're doing certain things so that i think is going to be quite interesting next year um okay so we got almost 300 votes come on folks we got 100 more 100 more left we got 400 people watching we're at 298 votes we've got inflation numbers coming out in two minutes now let's see if we can get at least 100 votes before the numbers come out 48 percent at consensus right now with about 23 percent expecting above consensus and 29 below consensus at the moment and uh we are going to now listen in to the live stream here and then of [00:29:45] Speaker 2: course i'm going to bring this over here we are ready to go that's coming out in just two minutes time and we've been watching treasury yields as well which has been such a huge is the audio good just let me know the audio is good yields have been driving every other market and this morning the 10 year is yielding lower than it was yesterday it's at 4.17 the two year is below 4.7 percent at 4.67 um rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago ahead of that data and and rick this is a pretty important number because of the fed meeting because we're at this inflection point where we don't know when they're going [00:30:20] Speaker 1: to start cutting rates this is it folks this is it just let me know if the audio is good [00:30:26] Speaker 3: there's good evidence of that if you look at yesterday's auctions for example uh the 87 billion in threes and tens the three-year auction was very poor the 10-year auction was definitely below average it's not as horrible as the three-year but yet even though each of those auctions established the high yield for a week on the tens and uh for the month on three-year right after the auctions yields were moving down and they were moving down before the auctions there is a bias here that the fed has done that we're going to start getting rate cuts in early 2024 and that inflation is just something that not to worry about now if any of those aren't true and this number furthers the cause in one direction or another it could have outsized consequences in the market 410 is the big area to pay attention to in the tenure that's the big support area it's been holding for the last several days it was tested several times last week look for headline to be unchanged again because gas price of course been pushing down and on the other hand look for core prices to be a little bit more buoyant to the upside one of the traps is that everyone is annualizing three and six month rates on inflation based on some of the better than expected current monthly numbers you know that could be a mug's game in the end because of the volatility and into the volatility and the notion that it's come down but it's coming down too slowly and we're still not near two percent and the numbers are out at 8 30 eastern headline number is up one tenth of a percent which is a bit hotter than expected we are looking for a second month reading of zero last month's reading of zero was the best read since may of 2020 when it was down one tenth x food and energy up three tenths as we discussed that makes sense because the gasoline prices of course uh being down on the headline but obviously not down enough up three tenths uh in the rearview mirror it was up two tenths uh you know we had two three tenths in a row in august and september uh then in october it moved down to two tenths so the annualized rate is not going to move lower the three month was 3.4 the six month was 3.2 they're not going to breach that three percent on these numbers uh now let's look at year over year year over year 3.1 exactly as expected one tenth lighter than 3.2 the best we had was june of this year at 3.0 that was the best since march of 2021 and if you strip out food and energy it's up four percent exactly the same as our last read and the last read in this read well they're the best since may of 2021 when it was 3.9 uh but that is a blessing i'm sorry 3.8 but it's a blessing in disguise becky because we haven't been below four percent that means since may of 2021 and that is significant now i'm going to throw something else out there that i normally don't throw out there and that is if you look at the cpi indexes the raw indexes in september at 307.78 that is the all-time high going back over 100 years it's 307.05 right now the core which is seasonally adjusted raw data is at an all-time high at 312.25 never ever been higher the point here is is that we annualize and we look at numbers at this point forward but if you go back in the rear view mirror inflation compounds and it's that dynamic that the public is not very [00:34:04] Speaker 1: happy with so that's that's exactly what i mentioned um in one of my videos literally yesterday right this is what i talked about and this was what i was talking about earlier today as well this is the index that overall prices are up in general both on headline and core it's not really going down prices are not going down if somebody tells you prices are going down they're not they're going up it's just the rate of increase is going down and the rate of increase obviously coming in much better than what the expectations were actually in line with consensus for the most part because we did see 3.1 increase in overall headline inflation and core coming in at 0.4 actually 0.3 uh which was in line with the consensus and on a year-over-year basis we're now sitting at four percent so it's in line with the consensus so if i reload this page you'll notice that 0.0 uh actually 0.1 so slightly hotter than expectations on headline month over month and of course cpi year we are 3.1 in line with consensus 0.3 in line with consensus and four percent in line with consent so we got three hit on the consensus and one slightly hotter than what the expectations were at the moment let's kind of [00:35:11] Speaker 2: quickly check in with the policeman also betsy stevenson who is professor of public policy economics at the university of michigan and joe lavornia who is smbc nico securities america chief economist steve we're going to go to you first for a little more context on those numbers that we're looking at uh up 0.3 percent which is in line with expectations but rick pointed out some of these things that are [00:35:32] Speaker 4: very concerning well first of all some things i think that might concern the fed is we're still not getting the shelter disinflation we thought we might get i think that's going to be a bit of talk about that today zero four um on the shelter uh after zero three i don't have the owner's equivalent rent right in front of me that's another table i can call up in a little bit but um food at home is down talk about people are concerned there's been some i've noticed this that in the circulars you get there's a little more price competition perhaps at the grocery store that's up food at home just 0.1 overall food zero two and as rick pointed out gasoline uh flattering this index down six percent on the month down eight point nine percent year over year um and then a big surprise here is an increase in used car prices up 1.6 there was general belief this was going to fall it did not fall uh it was down zero eight in the prior month the reporting by uh phil phil le beau um i had suggested it might fall uh because of his reporting from the auctions another interesting thing is we talked about all this holiday spending that's been out there two points one is that apparel uh is down 1.3 percent but also real earnings inflation adjusted earnings up 0.5 percent after being negative so as you'll note the uh cnbc nrf uh retail monitor noted a healthy gain in november um uh as did the bank of america uh data you had on earlier this show um all of that uh powered by consumers and consumers being helped by uh inflation rising less than in this past month their wages rose becky [00:37:20] Speaker 2: okay steve let's uh talk a little bit more about this with uh joe lavornia joe obviously this has huge implications for what the fed may be looking at what would you take away from this uh steven uh and um [00:37:34] Speaker 5: made some very good points about what the federal look at but you know the thing is on the energy side that you think what's really important energy now it's down over five percent year on year and as energy moderates you're going to see all those secondary and tertiary effects which bled into the rest of the cpi those will come out uh transportation obviously is a huge cost and of course there's petroleum's in a lot of different products so as energy moves lower you are going to see your core rate drift down and i think the trend is certainly lower with housing we're going to have a record amount of multi-family units built this year and that really bodes well for much lower rental prices going forward we are seeing the rental vacancy rate rise these data will keep the fed from being too dovish but we're still on course for fed easing and we're still on course for much lower inflation fed easing when i think next year and i still would not rule out march i know the market now is under 50 50 on a march cut but if we get some weak data we've got three employment reports between now and then a march cut very much comes into focus and that would actually be consistent with history when the fed basically waits about eight months from its last height to its first ease that's it are you [00:38:47] Speaker 1: in line let's see the thing is that okay there was a point there that he made uh talking about the first cut being in march on the back of lower or weakening unemployment numbers and one of the things that i asked you guys before i actually went live i was asking everybody was what do you think the fed's main objective right now is is it to bring inflation down or is it to fight the recession and improve unemployment if if and when we actually see the weakness of the labor market let me know in the comments in the live chat what do you think the federal reserve is going to be more focused on is it to bring inflation down or is it to actually fight a recession if we get one okay because for me i think the federal reserve is going to be more focused on bringing inflation down now now that obviously is going to happen even if there is a recession if unemployment starts to go higher the federal reserve is banking on the idea that if and when unemployment starts going up they're hoping and they're banking on the idea that inflation is going to be back down by then so that then they can start cutting interest rates so that they can now control and support the economy if both of them happen simultaneously where unemployment starts going up and inflation also stays up that's a big problem that's probably the worst problem on our hands that could potentially happen in 2024 because core it's it's really core that that's not moving down as aggressively it's moderated a little bit so the last three prints we've only gone from 4.1 to 4 percent we've just been kind of uh stable at these levels and we're kind of moderating and rounding out at 4.14 percent and uh even though energy was down that doesn't help core because core doesn't include for energy uh and energy was down you know 5.8 6 percent 2.7 percent month over month and it's in full swing deflation at the moment what's really going to affect what is the one thing that's going to affect core inflation moving forward what is the one thing that needs to come down significantly that's going to help core inflation you should all know the answer to this question what is the one thing that needs to come down that's going to help core inflation come down dramatically which we have not yet seen we have not yet seen uh in the real world sure there might be uh the rate of increase that might be starting to go down but we haven't seen prices for this particular item go down what is that one thing what is the one thing that's going to help core inflation come down i want to hear from all of you all the people in live chat i want you to answer um this question yes so david says shelter right it's a pretty obvious it's shelter it's shelter it's housing shelter makes up over a third of inflation and more specifically core inflation has got even a more bigger weight um and it's still up 0.4 percent rent housing rent shelter you guys are all right uh that's what's really going to drive core inflation lower and if you don't see that then core inflation will continue to moderate right it's not really going down it's going sideways and this is still two times more than the federal reserve's target um and now let's just jump over to the fed watch tool um let's see if this thing has changed but i want to hear from all of you as well um earlier the market was pricing in five cuts in may starting may all the way through december what do you think the market is pricing and now after the inflation report that we just got by the way qqq is kind of sold off a little bit spy also sold off a little bit it's now mostly flat the yields slightly pushed higher back over 4.2 percent um and we've got the dollar index which is also spiking back higher so we can see the last 15 minutes the dollar index did jump about 0.17 but uh but yeah what do you what do you think is going to be um the change in the fed funds futures for interest rate expectations going into 2024 i'm gonna i'm gonna scroll down i'm gonna release these i'm gonna you're gonna go over these but i want to hear first what what you think is going to be the change the same five cuts retromantor says no change okay no change still five cuts for the next year so let's just quickly run through and okay so right now still five cuts by the way this will take some time to adjust it's only been what 10 minutes since the numbers have come out so one two three four five still five cuts priced in starting in may of 2024 but we will come back to this in 15 maybe 20 more minutes because it does take time for the fed funds futures to adjust to the new information that just came out about 10 minutes ago um so yeah overall i would say inflation numbers were good um month over month headline did increase but i think that's more of a rounding error because people are expecting no change we were up like 0.01 percent um but the main key key statement which i think is quite interesting is that is core inflation price index which is at an all-time high which is at an all-time high i think that's what everyone needs to understand is that inflation is still persistently high in other words prices are still going up because core inflation is up and the index is at an all-time high we've never seen the index at these levels uh but it's just the rate of increase that is now going down and wages have clearly not kept up wages have certainly not kept up to the increase in prices and more specifically if you take a look um where did majority of inflation really take place right really take place i mean i don't have the ability to kind of overlay the fed funds futures on this but if you take a look at where uh the actual price index uh the actual price index was this is cpi price index we were incredibly flat since 1915 all the way through 1965 so for 15 years 50 years right yeah that's 50 years 50 years in between this time period um inflation of the word cpi was flat it was sideways sideways sideways and then look what happened in 1970s 1970s all the way through where we are now in 2023 this has been absolutely astronomical increase in overall cpi in overall inflation and wages have certainly not increased all that much if you zoom in you take a look this is more linear this is more parabolic you can see this right here is a lot more parabolic it's a lot more violent a lot more aggressive than what we have seen in the past same thing that happened over here in 1970s and 1980s right we're kind of going up in a linear fashion it's more parabolic over here uh all because of of course interest rates getting cut dramatically and that's causing uh well recession interest rates getting cut and then causing prices to go up uh significantly the federal reserve raises interest rates bring inflation back down and that cycle repeats itself but i think this time around jerome powell and the federal reserve kind of understand the implications of lowering interest rates too much too fast even in a recession so i think they may be if they've learned their lessons from the past they will let the economy work itself out without that intervention from the fed of lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy and and kind of help support growth in labor market because every time they do that they basically risk re-accelerating inflation back higher right that's happened twice actually three times three times in 1970s and 1980s not once not twice not three times in paul volcker time where they cut interest rates inflation goes back up they raise interest rates economies in recession they lower interest rates inflation goes back up again it's like god it's not that difficult like they just make it super complicated um so shelter won't come down uh for sure stocks and ai says um the chart says five cuts yep so that's what the market's pricing right now but we'll reload this um right now because i think it does take a few minutes to kind of readjust to the new expectations maybe the market's still pricing in five rate cuts but i think it's the core inflation which tends to be a little bit more sticky stickier out there uh peter says yeah we know it's getting expensive out here and that's the whole idea right um one two three four five so still five rate cuts uh is what the market's pricing in right now look at the dollar index almost positive now definitely seen a pretty significant move to the upside with the s p now basically flat and the nasdaq you're also rolling over uh with a lot of individual stocks like amd pulling back 1.3 um we've got nvidia slightly down about 30 basis points tesla on the other hand is down about half a percent and apple down about 33 basis points at the moment as well kevin says stackflation um yeah stackflation is also the most probably one of the most uh likely scenarios going into next year as well uh and that's also what ray dalius mentioned for overall inflation and overall economy going the next year so again if you have any questions about specific stocks or macroeconomics or interest rate or inflation happy to go over those i think somebody asked about the tlt uh and tmf trade so mpharma what is your prediction for tlt um you know the yields are still kind of dealing with one demand and two supply forces right now actually one supply and two demand forces right now um we did see a pretty big technical breakdown there was a negative divergence i'm no longer in tmf at the moment because it was getting way too overbought um and i'm planning on re-entering very soon on this trade again but just considering how overbought we really are and the fact that the yields could see a little bit of a bounce back higher from these levels um is one of the reasons why i'm not um planning on buying at the moment but yes eventually i do plan on re-entering this trade uh once again so really the focus is going to be on the 10-year yields the 20-year yields uh we're seeing a little bit of a bounce back higher and if you do cross back about 4.2 and a half percent 4.3 4.4 uh then it's possible that tlt tmf starts to pull back and then i'll be looking at re-entering that trade once again it was a macro tactical play um for me from the beginning of this year which turned out really well so happy with that and then of course next year we'll be looking at re-entering uh that trade again but we also wrote down a report from jim grant uh who talked about that interest rates are going to be higher for much much much and much longer and he also talked about how there is a 40-year bull market and a 40-year bear market for interest rates for the bond market as we have witnessed in the past last 80 years so what he's expecting now is for the yields to stay higher for longer um and for the bond market uh to continue to trend down and this is it's a beginning of a new regime in interest rates so uh dixon so do you hold tmf overnight or is it for day trading so it was a swing trade for me so i did not day trade it it was a swing trade over several weeks and even months i ended up building my position uh at around 4.75 which pre-split uh was 4.75 post split 47.50 and uh exited around 60 bucks for tmf and we'll be looking at once again rebuilding that position again if it ends up dropping that dropping back down on the back of yields kind of seeing a technical rebound uh considering how much they've pulled back one sector one part of the market where i am planning to buy going into next year so what is the one place yes uh frank i'll come back to swav in just a minute um but one sector one part of the market where i am planning to allocate more anybody wants to take a guess i feel like it's got lots of opportunity there's dislocations in that particular area um it's underperformed relative to the the snb the nasdaq and it's underperformed because the yields have been higher um so that's one place where i will be buying more of and allocating more biotech is one absolutely biotech is one gold is another one but it's not going to be a pretty significant position in terms of allocation uh energy is well renewable energy is one of the one but it's small cap it's iwm it's small cap i feel like iwn small cap has potential going into next year because technology has been a little bit more of a crowded trade for this year um and if you remember going back last year december of 2022 i have to find that video but we talked about how energy is not going to be performing well in 2023 energy is not going to be the trade for 2023 it's going to be tech we talked about this and this year going into next year i'm not for making predictions as you guys know i don't like to make predictions but i'm going to be somewhat scaling up on iwm and more on the smaller cap uh mid-cap space because they haven't really done anything they've been underperforming on the back of higher yields and if the yields do end up pulling back as we expect them to with the markets pricing and five cuts um not to mention if there is a recession inflation is back down there's a probability for more uh more downside on the yields than iwm and small caps have the opportunity and potential to do really well um are we still doing sofi buys for correct answers yes we are we are we'll be um buying more sofi slowly and steadily okay let's take a look at swav for frank here uh shockwave medical um frank does come out with some pretty good stocks in terms of the companies that he does find so uh let's see 708 000 shares traded daily 6.2 billion market cap recently turned profitable in 2022 but it definitely does feel like a pretty outsized gain so i'm assuming there was a lot of intangibles or maybe something that was like a one-time gain for the company i'll have to look into that more it definitely was because it does say fourth quarter 22 was 97 98 profit but let's take a look at the overall uh technicals i would be watching a very strong support for this company at around 127 so this right here would be that level and resistance all the way up here at 315 dollars per share so right now of course a lot of consolidation maybe there's another support sitting right here at around 168 160 per share for shockwave medical and let's just quickly run through some of the expectations earnings are expected to increase over seven bucks revenue also expected to go up to over a billion and three and uh statistics wise i would say reasonable valuation 37 38 times earnings um 27 times earnings actually 27 times earnings 37 times cash flow almost 10 times sales and uh we've got a quick ratio that's very strong so balance sheet definitely does seem to be pretty good for the company with a negative net debt and a very strong current and quick ratio so this is the range within which it's been trading definitely does make for a pretty decent swing trading opportunity frank i would say at 160 with a potential back up to uh 220 to as much as 234 and of course uh all-time target of 315 dollars so what is the thesis behind small caps investments in 2024 so i honestly think that small caps number one are undervalued relative to the actual so in other words the price earnings uh price of sales the multiples have compressed because of the underperformance and the higher yields uh number two i'm not looking at specific like like small cap companies within iwm um although although there might be some like super micro computer for example is part of iwm it's actually one of the biggest holdings in iwm and super micro has done really well this year an ai boom but i feel like if yields do end up coming down and there is dislocation with lower valuations um that there is possibility that that sector performs really well going in next year considering that technology has been very overcrowded especially when you consider big tech large cap magnificent seven companies it's been very overcrowded uh this year it's now starting to get overcrowded so those are some um some of the reasons and i'll be doing a more specific video uh on iwm as well and uh let's see the peg of 0.16 is what did it for me yes it's got a really low peg i was looking at the earnings expectations very strong earnings growth relative to the price to earnings multiple peg ratio of 0.16 definitely is quite attractive for sure um yeah so renewable energy so there's six areas in the market that we have already identified that i think are going to do really well um considering that yields are on their way low on their way down but it's just a matter of can they continue to go down or not right if they consider to go down then that's great if they don't then uh of course that's going to be that's going to be a bit of a challenging environment for a lot of these companies especially when you consider some of the more zombie companies as well that have a lot of debt a lot of floating rate debt um and don't have the best balance sheets or the income uh to kind of keep up with the interest expenses on the back of higher interest rates uh burlington and samsara interesting companies so we'll take a look at that very quickly so burlington stores burl very nice move to the upside uh coming in so massive support i would like to mark out at 110 so very strong support there and uh let's see we've got uh 4.2 billion dollars of net debt so a little bit more debt than cash valuation is a little bit on the higher side at 38 times earnings and cash flow at 13 times price of sales at 1.2 earnings expectations are also pretty strong i would say expected to re-accelerate back higher from four bucks to over ten dollars it's over a hundred percent 120 percent increase in the next four years and revenue is also expected to go up from 9.6 billion to over 12 almost 13 billion dollars as well so i'll add it to the watch list and stocks that i want to analyze in the future 242 is going to be that next resistance uh to watch i've done a video on samsara um in the past so we'll uh definitely maybe do like an updated analysis on that company uh tuda says gambling drafting so thing with gambling stocks again and drafting more specifically there's a lot of regulatory oversight so that's the risk but at the same time the moment the company becomes profitable and is able to generate gap earnings um is the moment that i would be a lot more interested in this stock but in the meantime of course you got to be very careful maybe a smaller allocation because you know a lot of the companies that are not profitable they are very very risky right because you don't know what the long-term execution plan is that's one of the reasons why neos underperformed that's one of the reasons why upstarts struggling now um draftings for the most part was doing really poorly it was down 85 at one point of course it's rally back up very nicely but profitability is very very important for any business if you are going to build a long-term significant position in that stock you better do it in my opinion in a company that's generating very strong cash flows has good earnings good balance sheets like these are important criterias for quality companies okay um if you are looking at a company that may not be profitable may not have positive cash flows may not have the best balance sheet uh you can always start small right you can always start with let's say less than 0.5 percent less than one percent allocation and then you can eventually size up as your confidence in that company grows um it's a very slow and steady process of building these positions even with tmf i didn't really go all in with tesla or metal or any of these companies i'm not going all in at once it's a slow and steady process of kind of getting familiar with them getting familiar with the price action getting familiar with the thesis with the fundamentals the technicals there's a lot of layers uh that go into it right so it's a slow and steady process of investing um over time as you build that conviction you build that confidence in that particular company or stock um because at the end of the day and that's another thing right that's one of the things that i mentioned is that until you build your own conviction in a company you're not going to have the stomach to hold for hold it right so if somebody tomorrow like you go to a family event or a family party and you know your friend or your uncle or whatever comes up to you and like oh this is a stock that has potential and next day you go and go ahead and buy it right when times get tough what's really going to help you hold on to that stock it's your conviction and your conviction can only be developed once you learn about the business you learn about what they do you learn about what their fundamentals are like you learn about what their growth is like that's the only thing that's going to help you hold through the tough times if you don't know anything about the company stock nose dives 20 what are you doing you're going to panic sell i've been there before i've done it many times and the more i know about the company the more i'm convinced that it's going to be a good position to hold on to for the long term the better it is the better i'm the less i'm going to panic sell um there's another small cap that i'm looking at i'm not as of yet looks very compelling uh love to hear your thoughts on sh ls shoals technologies i'm definitely going to be adding some of these companies to the watch list for further more detail analysis kevin says paper hands baby uh 2.3 million market cap kevin we got to step up our meme game man like i want to i want to laugh i want to see some more memes we got to step up our meme game in the discord um all right so bynd ball we'll take a look at that company as well i believe warren buffett is all out of um all out of bynd uh will there be a correction beginning of next year um so can't don't know about like a correction meaning over 10 percent but a pullback yes i believe there is going to be one considering how technically overbought we are and this is a normal thing it's not something that should make you like uh afraid or something that's going to get you in the state of panic but it's a very normal occurrence for the markets to pull back after having six weeks seven weeks of strong green rallies and the fact that we have moved higher so much um it is very normal for the market to see a bit of a pullback or a dip because when we do the analysis with respect to where we are by the way this is going to be available for everyone so if you want to uh access all of this link's going to be excuse me link's going to be down below for all of our um excel spreadsheets so you will be able to access like our watch list fair values uh for individual stocks um the fundamental analysis uh you know spreadsheets volatility spreadsheets um retirement calculators you can download and play along with those uh of course tutorials and private videos everything's going to be available with the discord access and over 20 plus channels including trade alerts find out exactly you know what i'm buying and selling on a day-to-day basis but the reason why this is so important data-driven analysis because it gives you a good idea a good logical reasoning as to where the markets are in the current environment right so if you take a look at the rsi right now 69.29 for the for the market this is going back almost 100 years we're normal right now last week we were at a rare territory and if you take a look at the daily moves the markets did see a very small pullback right we didn't really actually it's not even a pullback it was mostly consolidation sideways for for a very long time for several days two weeks three weeks of sideways consolidation then again re-accelerating back up and now the rsi is back over 71. so the number of times the rsi is over 70 in the last 100 years is only 2349 observations that's 10.27 it's a really really low uh probability for the markets to be overbought as much as they are same thing is true with the volatility same thing is true with nasdaq percentage stocks s&p percentage stocks trading above below their moving averages so it's not a prediction but it's an assessment of the current environment and that assessment leads me to believe that this is not the time for me to be long on any trades especially not on the market so like for example qqqs or s p or the dow or even smh or any of these trading opportunities the long side is quite unfavorable but once we see that pullback once we see these numbers kind of normalize a little bit then guess what it's going to be back to buying dollar cost averaging that's exactly what we were doing back in october right so october 2023 earlier this year literally there's buying opportunities time to deploy cash down over 20 percent back in a bear market um volatility was high it was in fact elevated up to as much as 23 24 so we were right there inside this green rectangle and it's just this constant analysis of the present environment of the current situation uh that we're in and you know we can and the thing is that we can be overbought longer than we can be oversold that's the way the market works we can be overvalued longer than we can be undervalued uh in the market because if you look at last hundred years what have the markets done they've gone up they've gone up right they've consistently gone up so it's a fact that markets have been overbought more than they've been oversold so volatility can stay down there and market can stay up there for longer than the opposite is true right uh because volatility is not going to stay up there for long it's going to go up to 70 80 and an environment of fear um it's going to give us a very small window of buying opportunities and then boom crash come crash down and market's going to start rallying back higher but on the other hand market's going to continue to drift higher and higher stay overbought volatility can stay low for longer so hopefully that makes sense uh what are your top five holdings and what percent cash you are right now so i think i'm a little bit over 20 cash and top five holdings again includes tesla uh you know vug we've got um smh we've got realty income corp we've got i'll have to do like a portfolio update for all the members i will be doing that uh very soon and that's going to be one of the uh members only private videos with uh with everything um so but yeah it's uh tesla's still the biggest holding i did trim meta uh but of course there's going to be other companies that are also included costco can you cover costco so king uh mas brother i did actually do a video on um costco a couple days ago i did a complete video on costco definitely do check that out uh did an analysis on the entire company uh but yes it is incredibly overbought right now with the rsi over 76 and macd very very overextended um but as we discussed earlier the markets can remain irrational longer than finish this statement in the chat markets can remain irrational longer than longer than you can blank finish this in the comment in the live chat but uh but that's what happens right i mean we know that the conditions are overbought conditions are not great for um for the long side of trades for for us to go higher but the markets can keep going higher but it's just about that marginal upside versus marginal downside which is not great uh well katie great to be a good member looking forward to this holdings update video yes thank you so much uh i appreciate that longer than you can remain solvent exactly right so we have to understand that and it's a constant assessment of risk reward i i have no problem dollar cost averaging into some of the broader base diversified ets and index funds i will still keep doing that regardless of where the prices are valuations are and technicals are but when it comes to trading opportunities our core focus is on risk and reward i will always always keep saying that uh kevin says i can stay sane uh yes so shls um let's just go back to this company so i think we already identified some um technicals i would say support level is going to be down here at around 963 but if you take a look at the company fundamentals here looks like a very nice strong year in 2022 16 times earnings 22 times cash flow but i'm not really sure if that earnings multiple is correct frank i'll have to look into it more because you can see the fourth quarter 22 it's got more profit than actual revenue so i'm assuming it was either a gain one-time gain or something they realized on a one-time basis and the last three quarters have not been super great in terms of profitability i mean they've been profitable but third quarter 23 was again generating a net loss so i'll have to look into this detail does have more debt than cash on the balance sheet right now uh positive free cash flow so that is that is good to some extent uh and earnings expectations are pretty strong for this company so so we'll take a look at that company here um in more detail oracle i did a video on oracle as well down almost nine percent uh on the day today so far um so beat on eps miss on revenue i think the price earnings multiple though the valuation for this stock relative to the earnings growth is a little bit too much um in a sense that in my opinion doesn't deserve that much that high of a valuation multiple so for that reason i'm not really interested in oracle right now however i think i did put down a fair value of closer to 90 bucks now what is interesting about oracle is that they've got a lot of debt like for a software company for a package software company which with high margins they've got a lot of debt on the balance sheet which is actually quite surprising i'm just going to drink some water here hold on one second they have a lot of debt and that's exactly what we analyzed in that video was that how is it possible for this package for i think it might be acquisitions the company's done a lot of acquisitions over the years and that could be one of the reasons why uh we do see oracle with over 80 billion dollars worth of debt and little to no cash but but yeah i mean for me sub 60 dollars even though i think might have put down the fair value closer to 90 bucks i'm still not super convinced i think i put down over 20 percent margin of safety for oracle um and he says chug you know i recently learned matt that there's a there's a thing related to drinking water as well i always thought that there's if there's one thing that can never get you sick like we say that okay everything should be consumed in moderation and uh i was like okay if there's one thing that you can actually go over and above on is water but then i learned that even water if drinking too much water too fast can create a problem i i forgot what it's called but i was actually surprised to learn that i was like wait a minute that's crazy if you drink too much water too fast it can create something i forgot what the name was but uh i'm sure you know but i was kind of shocked i was like wow even water should be consumed in moderation specific quantities and you just can't have too much too fast um but anyway for oracle sub 60 bucks is really what i'm watching um at the moment kevin says too much water can kill you yes it's called hyponatremia something like that i remember something like with edge uh that it's called but uh but yeah that's that's the only thing i usually drink along with coffee every morning of course um but anyway so qqq is right now basically flat so after the inflation numbers 12 13 basis points higher uh we got the sp500 also very very flat uh the government yields the tenure yield more specifically um up down over 35 basis points lead dad here sacramento doing a water checking contest for cash wow that's crazy that's wild scary stuff huh it's uh life's a fun big experiment i feel like you're just learning as you go um so frank my highest conviction play for next year is uri okay let's do this to make this a little bit more engaging and more useful for each and every one of you let's do this i'm going to create a new list okay um and i'm going to call this so i'm going to create a new watch list and i'm going to call this highest conviction okay i'm going to put down my highest conviction stock for next year this is based on my thesis of the interest rates and if and when they actually do get cut i believe um nphase is actually going to be one of the best performing stocks for next year in my opinion we'll find out but i want each and every one of you to share your highest conviction stock for 2024. as we close out this year what is one stock that has your full attention and your highest conviction play going into next year you're spending hours learning about that company and you believe that this is it this is going to be the one that performs really well going into next year the thesis could be your fundamental analysis macroeconomics interest rates economy the fed whatever but what is your highest conviction stock going into 2024 so that we create this list and we can kind of look into those stocks as well so and it's useful for everyone else to kind of share ideas and uh and of course look up other stocks that may not be on your list so we're gonna add ump uh we got biogen on the list okay so and now we're going to add let's say amd amd is a very good one i like amd for the net let's see ftnt we got xbi so yep small cap biotech no doubt about it tsla tesla of course we got tsl okay so that's gonna be this one dna oh you guys have got really interesting ones we got paypal in the mix you got nvidia you got qqqs wow okay somebody's bearish going into 2024 chipotle crisper therapeutics we got octa ooh iqbal's got a lot of them sofi palantir amd paypal and bynd uh tesla dependent on interest rates so could benefit i agree and faces the same way um smci i feel like has already done really well this year it's up over 250 percent so we'll see if it actually ends up doing well next year amazon ssnt verizon volatility love it paypal and phase amd hopefully baba as well from stefan unity software and phase we already added okay so so far we've got a list we've got a good list these are all stocks that folks are most bullish on or have the highest conviction going into next year i'm sure there'll be more on this list but it's just a good practice for everyone to kind of look at other companies right because if it's coming as a highest conviction stock that definitely holds a lot of weight um so you know this kind of serves as a list of other other people's highest conviction companies that we can analyze and of course do more research on and see how it fits with our analysis celsius we got neo we got airbnb palantir is already up there zscaler is a good one um asts i'm not sure what that company is but we'll add it stne stoneco we got nu and we got sofi already up there vmd wow that's uh there's quite a few that i might be interested in looking into uri vmd ssnt um so there's quite a few that i will be doing more research on and that's why it's this practice is so helpful because it kind of helps us understand other other stocks so airbnb is already part of the list there airbnb very very bullish i like the experience aspect of airbnb something that kind of makes me more bullish as well because every time i've been on an airbnb experience i've had the best experience i've never had any problems um in any sense because especially for solo travelers i think it's one of the best thing that they can do is go on these experiences when they visit that place and i think it's still very underrated and the fact that airbnb is being added to the s p 500 definitely makes it quite a compelling case makes a compelling case for wow or how it could be one of the best performing stocks going into next year again we'll find out techno glass um is another one but with techno glass it's kind of indirectly once again correlated to interest rates if interest rates are higher there's going to be less infrastructure projects if there's less projects in construction and infrastructure less demand for glass right um so a lot of the things a lot of the ones that we're looking at for example in mode uh techno glass enphase tesla palantir a lot of them are dependent on interest rates viva systems is a phenomenal business marathon marathon has had an insane year so far on the back of crypto absolutely incredible etsy jp morgan iwm we definitely got to add that one it's the mix all right so this list i will share with all the members in the discord um for people to do more research on if there's any companies that were not originally on your list you can add them on your watch list to do more research see how it fits with your analysis with your thesis and then of course you can make a decision that way um but but yeah these are the highest conviction stocks among our community right now on youtube so i'll share this list with everyone uh qqqs right now still pretty flat so is the s p very very flat markets opened about 14 minutes the dollar index starting to come back down with the government bond the 10-year yield uh slightly down about 45 46 basis points at the moment as well the chipotle wannabe kava never been to kava but i've heard it's actually pretty good quite comparable to chipotle i think 2024 could also be another ipo year where a lot of companies could once again start going public again it's just the private valuation has been crushed for a lot of these companies considering how high rates have been um well bro no one talks about my hood what's up uh so robin hood robin hood wow phenomenal uh phenomenal move to the upside back up to almost 1279 huh it's gone from like 785 50 rally 1279 is going to be that next resistance i'd be watching a little bit of that symmetrical triangle got a very strong breakout resistance at 1289 then of course sold right back down to 781 massive move to the upside of course overbought now with rsi and macd so be careful at 1279 resistance for this company mark says did the lead within mode it was actually again a phenomenal company in my opinion it's just uh it's been troubled by lower demand and there's a there's an element of risk with um with in mode because of the fact that their revenue resets to zero every year and there's no element of that recurring revenue or subscription model or software it's all hardware it's all capital equipment that they need to sell each year so that's the only risk that they carry but the balance sheet is phenomenal for in mode so 21 uh my fair value is just a little bit under 20 bucks closer to 19 dollars so sym will add that for frank says it's probably one of the most underappreciated ai play we'll do an analysis on this company as well frank walk us through your process of um screening for stocks i'm curious but uh but yeah this one 315 percent gain so far on a year-to-day basis uh no word nordisk will definitely be added satya that's a that's another great stock i think uh out of the out of denmark we've done several analysis on this company several videos on this business evaluation is a little bit up there but man oh man what incredible fundamentals high quality company uh that uh that this one is so very very strong move uh to the upside for nova nordisk so janus enphase also without recurring revenue um not quite they do have recurring revenue aspect with their services and the application that they provide but the difference between in mode and and enphase i would argue is that enphase got a much much larger total addressable market versus in mode which is mostly into cosmetic surgery um so cosmetic surgery um market obviously is not as big as the renewable energy space with solar panels and micro systems solar inverters uh battery packs solar systems all those things and of course with the transition towards renewable energy with the push from a lot of governments around the world subsidizing and encouraging uh people and businesses to adopt to their renewable energies much bigger tam versus in mode uh but but even enphase does have that recurring revenue of course it's a very small percentage of the overall revenue but it still has that component in there uh 10-year note going to the moon so us and why by the way we do have auctions uh later this week let's just reload see where the inflation interest rate expectations are now and if we have moved or not so okay one two three four five so market's still pricing in five rate cuts for next year inflation's already out and uh tomorrow we've got the press conference from the federal reserve fomc 2 30 pm eastern i will be live to cover the press conference and the summary of economic projections as well so all that is going to be released um it's going to be a pretty late live stream it's going to be a closer to 1 a.m or no yes one in the morning yeah that's when the actual federal reserve jerome powell starts talking so alibaba i'll be doing a video in chinese stocks i think there's a update that's due for a lot of chinese companies here we'll be doing that very soon but of course continues to sell off breaking down below 70 dollars per share the next support really is going to be 58 dollars per share for alibaba so that's going to be that next support unfortunately for the company and it's been under a lot of pressure anyone want to take a guess on which company in china is planning on going public in 2024 and it is going to perhaps be the biggest ipo that china that a chinese company is going to have in the us let's see if anyone can guess this which chinese company is planning on doing an ipo in 2024 in the united states which could probably be one of the if not the biggest ipo of a chinese company being listed in the us after didi which company are we talking about it anyone want to take any guesses ooh frank already on top of this shine shane i'm not really sure how you pronounce it but that's the company yes man on top of it yes that's the company i've got a video coming out later today on them um it's a fashion brand clothing company and uh yes timu is another one uh team but it has a holding company through somebody else but uh but yes shane or shine that's how you say it i'm assuming that's how you say clothing brand fashion brand worth almost a hundred billion dollars in the private markets um and uh and they're planning on going public next year so we'll be doing an analysis on them got a video coming out later today for them uh is another one uh timu but i think is being is owned by another conglomerate another like company that owns yeah pinduru that's the one pindu to pdd owns timu which is going to spin that company off and uh do its separate ipo yeah clarification companies sheen thomas says sheen okay that makes more sense sheen um okay so with respect to the yields um the short end of the curve continues to be a little bit more elevated at over five five point four percent and the spreads are still negative um wall says sheen is an awful company they will at some point get lawsuits because they steal all the designs yeah that's one of the concerns and threats i've highlighted in the video uh there's two concerns number one was the the idea or the conspiracy that they have stolen a lot of designs from artists and different creators and the other one was how they import cotton to actually produce their clothing accessories and clothing but at the same time there was a report that suggested that less than two percent of cotton uh less than two percent of their overall cotton imports are coming from unapproved localities so maybe it's not as big of a risk but yes the design thing the content the ip infringement is definitely a bigger problem for sheen um and all that is discussed in that video that i have coming out later today um what do you think about coinbase for next year it's russian coinbase um very much dependent on crypto um it has done really well uh but it's also incredibly overbought coming up to that resistance at around 152 dollars so in the short term i'm not super confident um if it's going to see more upside considering how overbought it really is you can see the rsi magd starting to roll over uh so support level is going to stay put down to 112 but uh but going into 2024 it's really dependent on how crypto does right so ether and bitcoin if they're going to be strong if they're going to see a lot of momentum yes um coinbase and mara clean spark and gbtc a lot of these could actually end up doing really well but uh but if bitcoin doesn't see a lot of momentum coinbase is directly correlated to how how bitcoin is going to do or how um crypto is doing all right everyone so that's going to be it for today uh thank you so much for joining into our live stream definitely do drop a like i would really appreciate it if you can get up to almost 200 likes here on this live stream and uh market's going to open in about a few minutes but qqqs and spy are starting to pull back a little bit we're basically flat uh on the day right now with the yields also very very muted volatility is uh also muted down almost two percent inflation numbers coming in in line with expectations with slightly hotter um numbers on the headline month over month so so bynd we'll take a look at rig ball very quickly and i'll point out some levels of support and resistance but this right here has been the overall downtrend of consistent selling pressure support level at 550 we got a resistance now pretty much approaching at 994 closer to ten dollars uh in line with this previous support level um and of course resistance staying put right here at ten bucks uh and we may start our regular market open live streams every so often because i miss doing these i think they've been always super fun uh being able to communicate talk to you guys uh every day and of course talk about the markets economy inflation recession all those things and of course go over individual stocks we get good ideas engaging ideas uh from our community members on what stocks are they have uh highest conviction and of course what we can analyze together as well so again thank you so much for joining really appreciate you all make sure that you drop a like subscribe to the channel uh links to our discord and patreon is going to be down below don't forget to sign up if you haven't already um you get access to all the members only private videos of course excel spreadsheets discord channels trade alerts everything's going to be included um so walter caddy now that end phase is out of the nasdaq where will it trade so there's a difference between an index and an exchange okay just not end phase is not not getting kicked out of the exchange it is not getting delisted it is only getting pushed out of the index which is the index of 100 companies largest non-financial companies so there's a difference it's not getting delisted it's still going to be listed on the exchange and be tradable but it's just getting pushed out of the index so it's there's difference between indexes and exchanges so hopefully that clears it up uh anyway thank you so much for joining happy investing and i'll see