🚨 LIVE: CPI & Inflation Rates Could Move Markets Today — Reaction, Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin and more

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: All right, everybody, good morning. Happy Hump Day. Happy Wednesday. Getting my charts up here real quick. Make sure my face pops up on the other window. Still figuring this system out. I think I got it down right. There we go. We're good. Technology can't defeat me today, ladies and gents. I just can't do it. You know, it takes a lot going into doing a simple live stream. You've got a lot of softwares you've got to learn. A lot of different things that you've got to make sure is working right. At the end of the day, I'm a trader. I'm not really the deepest technological guy out there. I save that for the experts. But, hey, you've got to learn a certain amount of technology when it comes to getting on here and helping people. So I think I got it all ironed out, guys. We're good to go. Today is CPI Day, ladies and gents. So we're going to take a look at that. That pops up here in about 14 minutes. So, as always, do let me know if you guys have any specific tickers or anything you'd like me to take a look at. We'll have a look at the 30,000-foot view, as always. And then we'll dig a little deeper into today's inflation. That comes out, once again, here in about 14, 13 minutes. And as far as previous readings, I wanted to pop on here before it pops out, before the report is released, just to see where we came from. Now, we were pretty steady towards the middle to upper twos there for quite a long time. Until April, we had that big reading pop up after a 2.4% in March, all the way up to 3.3%. So just some of your effects from the lingering war, guys. It's quite a spike up, 3.3%. And then the most recent was a 3.8% reading, which also exceeded expectations, but not in a good way. Okay, that exceeded by one-tenth of 1% to 3.8%. So that is where we're at. In fact, the administration had been praising the real wage growth for quite a while, up until April, guys, where we finally, or maybe it was this past one, where we actually eclipsed that into the negatives as far as real wage growth. Because we had been growing wages pretty well. Well, in fact, let me remember, so that's 3.3 and 3.8 for the last two readings. I just wanted to go over to the wage growth and see where we're at. So there you go. Yeah, as of that May reading, that was actually where we went into the negative. Because May was 3.8% inflation to only 3.6% wage growth. So that's a real wage deficit of 0.2%. So that was the first time in a while where we had been underwater in that metric here in the U.S. So, you know, that was something, like I said, the administration, Trump administration, had been praising that. But they kind of had to go silent on that number when it came to May. So that's where we're at. And we are still continuing to drop just a little bit, down to 3.4% for the June readings. So obviously today we'll get the most up-to-date CPI rating and then we can do the math again and see if we're, you know, still underwater or if somehow inflation came down, which I don't know if, I don't think it did, guys. A lot of people are projecting today's CPI rating to be the highest since 2023. So we shall see what happens. But just keep this 3.4% number in mind whenever we get that updated result. And, again, as far as today goes, speaking of that 3.4%, we are expected to jump up to 4.2%, ladies and gents. This is the year-over-year number. So remember, 3.8% was the previous to only 3.4% wage growth. Or was that, I'm sorry, was that 3.4%? Yeah, okay. So 3.8% to 3.4%. So that's actually four-tenths of a percent. Sorry, guys. I actually did my math wrong. Math wasn't my greatest subject, by the way. Never liked it, like algebra and, you know, some of the more difficult math. But for whatever reason, when it comes to geometry, I had A+. And I think that's probably why I enjoy trading so much. Because when it came to shapes and structures and patterns, recognition from geometry, to me, a lot of that translates over into the technical analysis side of things, the charts. Finding patterns. Finding structure. So, hey, there's one piece of math that I'll lay my claim to fame to. And that's the geometry side. So, simple math. Sometimes I mess it up. But, hey, we don't have to be great at everything. We just have to understand how to follow price action, follow some fundamental reports, like the CPI coming out today, and make a go of it. So, anyway, that's kind of where we set, again, 3.4%. That's the number we want to remember when we get this updated number come out here shortly for the year-over-year inflation. So, if it does, in fact, come out at 4.2%, then that would mean we'd be bouncing to minus 0.8% decline as far as real wage growth. So, it's starting to look ugly out there. But, anyway, 10 minutes to go, and we'll see what we got here. As always, guys, I'm going to separately, I'm going to pull up a chart. I'm going to pull up my eight-chart view that I've done before. That way, we can take a look at the top eight assets in real time as soon as that CPI report is released. So, give me just two seconds, get high impact here. And then, over here, I'm going to get high impact, too. And then, I'll get this visual for you guys here in just a second. As always, guys, please do like, share, subscribe to the channel. Got a lot of cool content coming out. So, my second video ought to be coming out pretty soon as far as my personal strategy. Again, guys, that's coming out just to give you guys an idea of what a trade plan looks like. And it'll give you guys something to kind of build from whenever you're going to create your own personal algorithms. So, definitely be on the lookout for that. But, yeah, definitely like, share, subscribe. And let's see. Let's get that here. Let's get that here. And now, I can add it in. So, there we are, guys. There we go. There's our eight-chart view. I'll get this set to a five-minute view over here on the left. Let's get this stuff out of the way. All right. Five-minute view. So, we got the S&P. We got the NASI. We got the Dow. We got Bitcoin. Again, some of your risky assets, guys. Risk assets, they call them. Over here on the right, we got gold. We got silver. The CFD version or the spot market. We got the Dixie, the dollar index down here. And U.S. oil. Five-minute charts. So, this way, again, we can get a real-time understanding of where price grows. As always, guys, these things make it look like an earthquake telemetry machine on some of these red folder events. On a lot of these red folder events. And that's why, as always, just a handful of minutes before, during, and after the release of that report. We want to be careful. We don't want to be jumping into trades at those times. That's an account. That's a way of killing your account. If you're in a challenge account, that's a way of blowing your challenge account, having to reset, restart. So, yeah, just be careful, guys. Be careful with these reports. But we do have about eight minutes until that does occur. So, we'll take a quick look at a couple assets before that report comes out. Start with your VIX, guys. Hey, we definitely had some more kinetic activity going on of late. No major breakthroughs, obviously, for the MOU, that memorandum of understanding. There was an Apache helicopter that got shot down by a drone, an Iranian drone. So, President Trump, of course, decided to go and retaliate against that. So, there were some self-defense strikes on Iranian military sites and radar sites and things of that nature since yesterday. Let's see what else we've got over here. I mean, he sounds quite, you know, he sounds quite positive about, still, despite all this nonsense, a deal. But I think we can all kind of read through the tea leaves right now and understand that, yeah, there's no ceasefire. There's just not. There really was never a ceasefire. It doesn't feel like. I don't know. What do you guys think? Evo Spunk, am I trading now? No, I'm not. So, I closed out my pound dollar short on Sunday. The main assets I'm personally watching are the dollar-based assets, along with Aussie Swiss, Kiwi Swiss, Dow, and that's it. When it comes to the dollar-based assets, when we had that Friday NFP report come out, it obviously went in my favor as far as the pound dollar short. I got out of that trade before it bounced and rebounded the opposite way. But at this point, I think price is too far away from my zones. I basically need a retracement of that NFP move to get back to some unfilled order potential that I deem strong enough to take a stab at. So, you know, as far as things like Aussie dollar, let's just go over here to the major assets real quick, the major currency pairs with the dollar. Aussie dollar, so I've got alert way up here, 72.40. I mean, 240. So, that's, you know, that's a lot. That's 240 pips away. There's another one out here, but I don't like it because it's too much congestion to the left. So, that's 240 pips away. Euro dollar, okay, a little over the 117 mark. That's 160 pips away. Pound dollar, the one that I profited on the other day down here, it's still, it's not as far away. I'm keeping an eye on this two-hour supply here. But still, 386 is where we're at currently. So, that's still, that's about 70 pips away. Kiwi dollar, this one's on my bearish list as well. 806 is the current price. So, we're about 64 pips away. And that's an ATR of only 55 pips in a day. So, that might as well be another 100 pips above that for the regular assets. Dollar CAD's on my list as well. Same thing. Got a demand zone down here. This is where the dollar is, the base currency instead of the quote currency. So, 860 is my alert on that. 934. So, we're still, you know, still about 70 pips away from that. Dollar Swiss is not on my list, but dollar yen. It is, and dollar yen is bouncing into overhead supply as we speak. So, yeah, these are the assets I'm watching because the dollar has been quite strong of late. It's been exceeding a lot of expectations, especially on the labor data side. Not to mention the NFP that we had on Friday, but a few others. Some PMI data came out previously as well. And when it comes to the currency strength, and we've got about three minutes, guys. Don't let me forget to pop over at the bottom of the hour here. When it comes to, let's go over to the U.S. heat map. Again, just taking a look at the dollar itself, we've had some pretty good labor data down here at the bottom. We've had some reports that were bearish, kind of turned neutral as far as some of your unemployment rate numbers. And then we did have that PMI number I alluded to just a little bit ago. So, that was a bullish number. Exceeding expectations for the dollar on 77% of its high impact events right now. So, the dollar, fundamentally speaking, is looking pretty good. Now, throw in the fact that we've just retaliated and started throwing bombs back Iran's way for the self-defense, as they put it, as it were. And that's going to obviously boost the dollar as well since it's a safe haven currency. So, yeah, the dollar is looking pretty strong as we speak. Now, obviously, if by some miracle, they, in the next few days, somehow twist their arm to where they make a deal, then the dollar will probably plummet a little bit, okay? Money flow out of the dollar into more of the riskier assets. But currently, the money is flowing into the dollar. So, if we go back to our eight view, well, actually, let's do this. Let's go back over here. Just go to the Dixie itself before we go back to our eight chart look, single chart view. And there you go. There's the dollar. Friday, okay, here's our NFP result here. Kind of balanced out a little bit, but now we're starting to get a little bit more of a push-up, again, as a result of those kinetic strikes. So, it's nothing too crazy yet. I got to admit, it really hasn't moved as high as I thought it would in lieu of these strikes. But nevertheless, still remain elevated. We're hanging out right at that 100 mark, okay? So, that's probably part of the resistance we're seeing right now, just because you have traders. Just because it's touching 100 are going to go out and sell the dollar against another currency. Just more of the psychological traders, the psychological number traders probably having a little bit of a field day right now. But the reality is, dollars looking pretty dang strong. So, that's why I'm interested in, obviously, the dollar-based pairs or the major pairs right now. But again, as I just showed on the charts, they're just too far away from any of the zones I want to trade. So, anyway, I'm going to get over here on my other screen. I'm going to get the report pulled up. Just that way I've got it over here. Got a minute and 20 seconds left for the core and the headline CPI numbers, the month over month, the year over year, for both ones. And we'll get that number shortly. And then outside of today's CPI events, here in about an hour and 15 minutes, we do have a very important rate decision coming out of Canada. So, we'll get the Bank of Canada statement on that. And then the presser to follow about 45 minutes later. What might CPI seller buy? Man, the question when it comes to buying or selling because of CPI, nobody knows. Look, at the end of the day, I'm not Nostradamus. Nobody is. Is anybody telling you how to trade this thing right before or right during? You've got to be careful with those people. They probably have an agenda. Nobody knows. A good trader will tell you nobody has a clue where prices are going to go. These things, again, they turn into an earthquake telemetry machine real quick where we get that just major volatility. The way to treat it is this. At some point, it's going to kind of calm down. The volatility will come down. The volume will come down relative to where it was at prior. And then at that point, there's usually a trend that kind of develops. That's when you would really want to start jumping on the trend. Guys, that report should be coming out now any second. And I'll get back to the chat here in just a moment. As far as the numbers go, so far we're getting a little bit of, wow, there goes your indices going up. Come on, number. Come on, number. Come on, number. Okay, so 4.2% is indeed the year-over-year projection. That's what we just saw over on our economic calendar. Guys, you can find that at fxempire.com, as always. Pretty robust calendar. But we did hit 4.2% right on the dot for the year-over-year number. The month-over-month nailed the forecast as well at a half a percent. Core CPI nailed the expectation right at 2.9% for the year-over-year number. And then when it comes to the month-over-month core number, it actually missed by 0.1%. So overall, that's pretty neutral. Okay, that's meeting expectations. So this right here is a perfect example. Just kind of piggybacking on to your thought there, Melissa, as far as sell or buy. Probably not going to go a lot anywhere, but you could get some spikes up. You could get some spikes down because you have a lot of people prior to this report coming out that are making their bets, making their guesses, thinking, oh, inflation is going to be much higher than that. It's going to be 5%. Or you might have some people thinking, well, everybody's just overreacted. It's only going to raise by 0.1% or 0.2%, not a whole 0.4%. But, in fact, it just nailed the expectations. So congrats to the economists out there. They actually got this one correct. You guys probably see how often the economists are way off on certain reports. They're pretty accurate, I've got to say, overall for the CPI. But there we go. There's another one nailed. So just taking a quick look at the update over here. Get this refreshed. And, again, guys, you can see 4.2% was met on the year-over-year core number. 2.9% was met. Month-over-month was met. And then, again, the month-over-month core was missed 5.1%. So, excuse me. I put a little more weight into the year-over-year numbers, guys, rather than the month-over-month numbers. So, yeah, again, I think this is overall pretty neutral. I mean, obviously, they had a little bit of a miss over here on the core month-over-month number. A miss, which means it would be maybe a little bit better for the currency. But, again, that's one of the more minor of the red folder events. So let's call this light red, guys. Okay? If the main headline rate decision is a red folder, then these are a little more on the light red side. Okay? So, anyway, going back over to our 8-chart view. Again, you're getting just a little bit of a spike up with the indices as well as Bitcoin. Inflation rose, but not as much. So, so far, the stock market seems to like it. The dollar's got some mixed thoughts on that. Oil, bottom right, it's not really going a whole lot of anywhere. But gold, silver are, so far, liking it just a little bit. So that is a real-time look at your inflation report. Okay? It's a big nothing burger. But from that, this is where stock traders and all kinds of traders are going to start saying, well, okay, we expected this reading. Okay? We expected this reading because it was clearly forecast to us. So it's basically priced in. But you're still going to get some traders saying, okay, well, at least it wasn't 5%. At least it wasn't 4.5%. Okay? It was still a raise. It was still an increase in inflation. But, hey, at the end of the day, that can be construed as good for the dollar itself, the dollar index. And so far, the stocks are liking it just a little bit. Not really a major move, guys, overall. Again, priced in. Hey, it's what was forecast. It's what was expected. But it was still an increase in inflation. Again, by 0.4% from the previous reading. I do believe that's what it was. Yeah, 3.8% to 4.2%. So that is your consumer price index. And going and taking a look over here. Now, the CPI number, the previous number, was also an increase. Okay? Well, I should say it was an increase. So that was bullish for the currency. Remember, when inflation goes up, it's typically good for currencies, typically bad for stocks. So since today's came in neutral, okay, we're going to get rid of this blue box. The blue boxes are your bullish reactions to currencies. It's your exceeded expectation. So since we just had a neutral reading, that means we're going to lose a little bit of percentage on the dollar. It's going to go from 77% down to about 70, whatever, 71% or something like that. Okay? So it's still going to remain strong overall, even though we're losing a bullish box. Because it has a lot of other bullish blue boxes to go along with it. So algorithms still think this is going to be a pretty strong currency. Again, it's going to go down to the lower 70s. But still, anything 60 or above for me personally is where I actively want to go out and start trying to buy that currency. So nothing's changed on the dollar. Perhaps it'll just give us a little bit more of a retracement back to some of the zones that I want to buy and sell from, okay? Because, again, like I just showed on the charts earlier, we're just a mile away from anything worth buying at the moment. So, again, outside of the dollar-based currencies, I am looking at the Dow. Gold and silver have been kind of flirting with my bearish list for the last few days or so. So we'll take a look at those here in a second as well. Let me get back to the chat real quick. 4,100 level for gold, Cliff. Tell you what, let's just go ahead and move on over to gold since that one's popping up in the chat. As always, guys, please do like, share, subscribe. We did a look at our analytics recently, and 75% of you are watching without subscribing. So that's three out of four of you right now. If you don't mind, please go hit that subscribe button. It just helps our algorithm out, push the content out. You guys have heard this spiel over and over, probably watching other channels and things. It just helps the algorithm out to where we can continue to get this content out to traders and help and keep it free as well, okay? That's what we want to do. We want to maintain a free service. That way I can, you know, for me and the rest of the guys creating content on the platform, we can get it out to as many people as possible. There's so much nonsense and crap out there in the trading world as far as YouTube, as far as other places, where they're teaching old things that don't work, outdated material, or they just have an agenda. They're trying to sell you something. I don't have anything to sell you, okay? So I'm just here to teach from 12 and a half years of background and study into the craft. So that's where I'm coming to you from. If you ever hear me try to sell you anything, just smack me around, okay? I've got nothing to sell. In fact, my own trading strategy is being broadcast to you guys for free through this series that we've got going on. Again, guys, if you haven't already, definitely go over here at some point. Just go to playlists and then go down here to the Trifecta Trio trading system. And this is actually one of the current series I'm creating. It's just basically going through my trading strategy. Again, not to tell you this is the only way it's done, but just to show you how it's done so that it can get you to thinking and spinning your wheels and to figuring out how to create your own system if you haven't already. One of the biggest, one of the most important lessons I learned when I took my stock and Forex classes back in 2014, 2015 was creating a trade plan. It sounded like schoolwork. I hated the idea. I didn't do it. Fast forward several years. I finally realized, you know what? I'm going nowhere with this trading bit. I've been very diligent. I've been studying supply and demand. But why is my account not growing? Well, it's because I wasn't following a system. I wasn't following a plan. I was thinking that the technical charts was the way to riches. Lo and behold, I run across this stuff called fundamentals and the economic calendar that we just got through looking at. Studying how banks trade, looking at sentiment analysis, guys, as far as what the average retail traders do and put to call ratios, AAII survey sentiments, the actual retail sentiment itself, COT reporting, and understanding that, hey, there's an actual system out there that could probably help me do a lot better than where I'm at. I got to say, with just trading supply and demand only and just technicals, I basically, I didn't lose my account. I didn't, I didn't become a statistic, as they say. I was actually praised for that. But I'm like, how can you praise me for not blowing an account and not going anywhere? And they said, because you weren't a statistic. You didn't blow your account. The average person, 80%, 90% of the traders lose their money. Some say 90% lose 90% of their account in the first 90 days. So I avoided all those stats. But then when I figured out fundamentals and sentiment, whoo, guys, I'm telling you, it took off. So I say all that to say that I'm creating that system here, that way you guys can check it out. And again, just take little bits and pieces of what you think might work for you, what makes sense for you, and make it your own. Make your own personal algorithm. That's the whole goal behind this. Okay. So, again, I'm giving it to you for free. I don't, I ain't, I'm not trying to sell it. So, anyway, going back over here to the eight chart view. Yeah. Yeah, it's pretty well subdued, guys. Not, not really. It's kind of a nothing burger overall when we look at the CPI. Now, let's give it some time. Okay. There's going to be some remnants coming in. Back to the chat. Yes. Yes, shrimpy. Yeah. And we'll go back to gold. Yeah, guys, I would recommend just waiting a little bit. There's no reason to get in a hurry. Obviously, we got the cash market opening here in about, what, 50 minutes, 60 minutes? Or, no, 50 minutes. Sorry. So, that could possibly stir up some volatility as well, especially with your stock traders. Let's go back to the chart over here. You asked about gold. Yeah, when it comes to gold, when it comes to gold, let me just go double check my numbers over here. Okay. So, silver and gold, so they're very close to a bearish reading. So, what do they really need to have an actual bearish bias as far as I'm concerned? Well, I'll tell you what. They weren't really helped out at all, speaking of sentiment analysis, they weren't really helped out at all by those sentiment readings. Okay. If we take a look, and this is just one item that's kind of holding it back. Let's go look at the COT report. I actually need to look. Yeah, here's part of the reason why, guys. If it weren't for the banks, I'd probably be shorting this. But the banks actually bought gold to the tune of 6% from last week to this week. I should say two weeks ago prior. Two weeks ago to last week. Because the COT report, it comes out on Fridays, guys. And it's automatically three days old. Okay. So, it's a little bit of a delayed number. But for me, as a two- to five-day trader, short-term swing trader, I like that number. I like to follow those numbers just to see what the banks are doing. Because the banks, at the end of the day, make all the money. Do they not? And do they not take our money from us? [00:26:28] Speaker ?: Okay. [00:26:29] Speaker 1: So, if they're buying, like we see here for gold and silver, silver's down here about 1.5%, so not as much. But if they're buying, this just makes me hesitate just a little bit. Now, the fundamentals are screaming sell. The fundamentals on gold and silver are very bearish. But, again, it's partially due to that sentiment reading that's kind of holding me up. The technicals are fine. What about the retail sentiment, guys? Let's go to the crowd sentiment section. I want to look and see what the average retail trader at home on their computer or their smartphone, see what they're doing over here. Okay. Gold down here, gold, silver. So, look at that. 90%. 90% net short. Now, let me ask you a question. If 90% of traders, or 80%, if they lose money on average and they're short, do you think we really want to follow them? Since 90% of them lose money anyway? It's very rare that the average retail trader is actually on the right side of a tree because of the statistics we see. 80%, 90% lose money. So, they're net short. I would rather see them net long than net short. So, I could use that as a contrarian signal. I can't do that. What about the put-to-call ratio? Let's take a look at that. This thing's a lot more dynamic. It changes daily. Take a look at gold. And we're looking at the options market, ladies and gents. So, we're looking at high put volume, high call volume. And right now, right now with gold, there's a lot of put volume out there. Put volume is bearish bets on behalf of retail traders. So, as you can see, we're well over that high put line. So, that's a bullish contrarian signal. So, now we've got the COT report giving us a bullish bias. We've got the retail sentiment giving us a bullish bias. Now, we've got the put-to-call ratio giving us a bullish bias. That's just one thing to think about. It's just one thing to think about. I don't like that relationship. I don't like that the banks bought. And I don't like that the average retail trader shorted. I want to short, but that relationship is out of balance. And that's why it's screwing with my bias right now. So, that's why it's just barely neutral. So, you know, at the end of the day, the put-to-call ratio, if this thing kind of flips back to high call volume side, meaning, you know, they're bullish again, the average options retail trader out there, okay, maybe that would make me feel a little more comfortable. But as it stands, I'm just not that interested. But we'll still take a look at the technicals. Guys, when it comes to the technicals on gold and silver, again, they are pointing down. So, at the end of the day, the trend is your friend until the bend at the end, right? It is. But it's just that one piece of sentiment data to worry about. Now, we are coming down to a swing low when it comes to gold. We're getting there. We're getting pretty close. EMAs are pointing south, okay? We've got our 8 EMA below our 21 EMA. So, that is a mechanical way of looking at our trend. Obviously, lower lows, lower highs, which is the most important part. So, again, the technicals look great. Going back to our one chart look, you guys see I've got a daily supply up here. That I'm keeping my eyes on. And inside of that daily, there is a 4-hour supply. So, I've got two sets of eyeballs. Although, I don't really like that one as much. Let's see. Actually, I'm looking at it on different type of... Yeah, this is what I meant to do. So, the 2-hour, 1-hour look was actually the better look to gold and silver because it's giving us that nice gap below that I like to see. Okay? So, this right here would be my gap. This is showing me where supply heavily exceeded demand so much that it just completely gapped through. There was nothing in here. And it kept on going. So, that's the technical look I'm personally looking at for gold. And you know what? Here's the thing. If I were just... If I didn't have... If I had more options to trade right now, then obviously, again, I wouldn't care about gold or silver right now. But since it's a little bit on the slim picking side and we just went through the U.S.-based assets and they're a mile away from my zones, perhaps I would take a little stab at this short despite the sentiment analysis not being in my favor. I just wouldn't risk a whole risk. Okay? I would cut my risk down to size. In other words, dip my toes in the cold pool. Let's see. What else we got up here, ladies and gents? Thanks, Yossi. I appreciate it. It's a nice course. Gold. Yeah. So, we just went over gold. CPI. We just went over that. I mean... I'm sorry. I'm catching back up. 7.41 a.m. Ending May. Yep. What tool are you using there, guys? Hopefully, I can explain more about the tool I'm using, but it's not really part of the company yet. But it is called the Edge Finder. Okay? I'll leave it up to you to go do some sleuthing on the internet to search that. But yeah, it's called the Edge Finder. I mean, it's basically an algorithm that helps me to keep in one place all the fundamental data, all the sentiment data that I just got through talking about, as well as some technical stuff. It gives me all the put-to-call ratio. It gives me everything I need. So, again, I'll leave it up to you to go do some sleuthing because we're not officially affiliated with them. Hopefully, one day. Okay? But as of right now, we're not. So, I have to be careful with it. But yeah, it basically is designed to help save time. Okay? Keep everything in one place. There's certain features about it I can't show. Again, because it's not affiliated. Again, I'm not selling anything. Okay? So, I can't really talk about it. But perhaps one day. Okay. Where else are we at over here? Speaking of... Let's go back. Oh, yeah. Let's go back through the rest of the data over here, guys. So, we just looked at the VIX. It's obviously spiking pretty hard of late because of the strong NFP report we had back here and then also the kinetic activity. So, volatility index is up at 21 and a quarter. It's up there pretty high relative to where we had come. In fact, we got close to... We got basically back to the early April prize points, guys. So, that's quite the spike up. Okay? That was only... Well, that was about the time that the ceasefire started coming in. So, we're kind of getting closer back to those levels. So, again, the fear is rising again in the trading world. Dollar index, we've already kind of looked at that. As far as the CPI report, it does appear that we are getting a little bit of a pullback from that. So, again, it's just hard, guys. It's just hard to guess this stuff whenever it first comes out. We're now 18 minutes past the report release. And so far, we're getting a drop. Now, I wouldn't trust that very far. Okay? I wouldn't trust it. Because, again, kinetic energy over in the Middle East, that's going to probably benefit the dollar. It's still got the hangover, so to speak, from the NFP report on Friday. This wasn't a bad report for the dollar. Okay? We met expectations. Okay? But it could be a little bit of buy the room or sell the news type movement as well. So, keep that in mind. But I like seeing this. I like personally seeing the dollar index drop because I want it to go closer to, again, some of my zones. There's a zone down here on the Dixie. If I can match this demand zone up with a demand zone on a dollar CAD or a dollar YIN, by the time it hits its own demand, that's a good confluence and a good reason why I might take that trade. Or if we get a Kiwi dollar short, Aussie dollar short, okay, if we get price bounce up into a supply zone the same time this hits a demand, whoo! And then the same time that other currency index hits. Guys, remember, and I know I mentioned this. I might have to mention this to you guys a handful of times. But especially as an FX trader, it's good to keep all these currency indices on your watch list as well. Talking about the Axie, Bexie, the Kexie, Dexie, Sexy, all that, okay? This is Australian Currency Index as an example. So that you can look at their own zones and see if those hit the same time an Aussie dollar short hits for this example, the Axie, okay, the Australian Currency Index, the Axie and the Dixie. It's a good idea to do, okay? I don't see too many people talking about this. I don't know what you guys think about it, but utilize the index. That's partially why it's there. I got an airplane flying above me, ladies and gents. It's like 200 yards up in the air. How about that? Well, that was close. I'm in between two airports. I live in Lenexa, guys. Lenexa, Kansas. So I'm right in the center of the country. I've got MCI, Kansas City Airport, about 20 miles to the east, or to the north, rather. And then just to the south of me, about five miles, there's another airport, kind of a local airport. So I always have planes right here by my window. And I got a big window behind the laptop. So I'm always seeing airplanes, whether it's the 757, 747s, helicopters, everything. It's like I'm being attacked. That's good stuff. All right, let me take another look at the chat. Guys, as always, please do like, share, subscribe. I want to try to remind everybody a handful of times here and there so that we can help keep this content for free for you. We've got a lot of cool stuff coming up, a lot of cool projects. I've got a commodity short series out as well, just going back to the list over here. So again, all we're asking for is just a little help on the algorithm. If you wouldn't mind, like, share, subscribe. We did get our newest podcast released yesterday. In fact, I have an interview shortly with a gentleman on another crypto podcast. Okay, I'm going to get that knocked out here today, this morning, and then we'll get that out to you as well. But go check this out, most recent one with Tim Duggan. We've had a few others on here. So again, when you're just driving home or driving to work, you got some time to kill, or you're busy, you're driving, whatever, cooking supper, cooking dinner, throw those on, and you get some good insights from some really awesome traders and fund managers, etc. So it's a really cool little side project that we created for you guys. So hopefully you'll like it. But again, just go tap on the playlist. You can see my commodities trading in 60 seconds playlist or series that we've created as well. I already mentioned my trifecta trio trading system. In fact, this is the gentleman I'm interviewing today right over here, Alejandro. Okay, again, a crypto wizard. So a lot of cool stuff coming out, guys. I got some other shorts and all these other guys too. Chris, Bruce is on here. A lot of good stuff, guys. Again, we're just doing this for you. So please do support us. Check it out. Like, share, subscribe. Send it to your dog. Send it to your neighbor's dog. And we'll help you out. So, all right, going back to my list over here, we already went through gold. Okay, again, I'm keeping that supply zone in mind. As far as silver, there's a kind of a similar zone here, but it's on a smaller time frame. I'm the least excited about silver between gold and silver. But gold would definitely be probably the main one I'd be interested in because I have a very clear daily four-hour supply zone confluence. And two-hour, one-hour that we just looked at inside of gold. So I think gold is great. Gold has given me multiple sets of eyeballs. I've got the daily set of eyeballs looking. I've got the four-hour set of eyeballs looking. I've got the two-hour set of eyeballs looking, meaning traders that focus on that for their execution time frames, guys. Obviously, I've got the one-hour set of eyeballs right here. There's just a lot of sets of eyeballs here. Okay, I like that. For supply and demand traders, they're all definitely keeping an eye on this price point. I want to keep an eye on it, too. And it just so happens the $4,500 psychological level is inside of the daily. So if I'm trying to short up here, I'm putting my stop loss above all that anyway. Somewhere up in this area, okay? And as far as exact numbers, I don't know because I have to do a little more digging. But taking all that into account, also my $200 EMA on a one-hour chart. It's going to have to pass through it. My $50 EMA is below my $200 EMA. On my execution time frame, this is what I want to see. This is the alligator's mouth opening to the downside. And then again, by price retracing, it's going to have to be forced to go through my $200 EMA. Okay, if I just bring my EMA a little forward, if we get a bounce here, and we got liquidity right here, we also have a former support resistance line going right here. If I go back in time, we'll see a big, you know, a strong support resistance line from the past. So we've got liquidity here. I want to see that liquidity get taken out. Here, let's do this. I want to see that liquidity get taken out. And right in this area, I would like to see a little more manipulation happen. That's what I want to see. Okay. Well, let's see. How do I want to do this? Yeah, something like that. That's kind of what I want to see. So have price pop up, take this liquidity out, start manipulating itself, finally go in and take unfilled orders, break a structure to the downside, like this, perhaps a retracement, because again, it's just not quite to the bearish bias yet. It's still barely neutral. So it's going to have to do a little bit of a confirmation entry, meaning go into the zone, come out, break a structure like we had here, just showing you an example. Where we break that structure right there. Okay. Right here, we break structure. And then we get one more retracement to a newly created supply zone, because typically in these impulse legs, we'll see that. That would turn this particular leg into a bearish impulse leg. Why? Because we broke structure to the downside. We broke this structure right here. Right here. And then now all I'm asking is, hey, perhaps we get another smaller timeframe supply zone get created in here where the actual trade would be made. So this is the actual trade right here. Okay. That's what I personally want to see. If I'm trying to project this thing out, it's got to pierce the 200 EMA on this one hour timeframe for me personally, because that's my personal algorithm. That's what, that's how I trade best. Daily and four hour supply and demand zones. And then I go down, I divide, whatever timeframe you're looking at when you're going to fine tune it, take it and divide it by four. Okay. So four hour divided by four. It's one hour. On the one hour charts where I want to go get real granular with this stuff. Make sure my 50 is under my 200. Make sure price pierces the 200 EMA, the blue line. Bounce into supply, get some manipulation going, get a bearish impulse leg that breaks structure. And this right here is where you get a lot of your breakout traders, guys. Okay. We've broken a structure. Holy cow. We're finally going down. Only for price to do what? Typically. Reverse on them. [00:42:41] Speaker ?: Okay. [00:42:42] Speaker 1: They think this is happening right here. And sometimes it does. But is it consistent enough? No. It's not a repeatable system. What is repeatable is the fact that big banks know that people are buying these breakouts. So they're going to do what? They're probably going to manipulate price back up one more time, which is what I personally am waiting on. But I want to see it in a supply zone. That's where my supply zones come in. So we've bounced off the major supply zones. But now I'm looking for that one last supply zone in an impulse leg, a bearish impulse leg. Bearish impulse legs that break structures to the downside? It takes a lot of money to break a structure. Whether you're breaking a support resistance line, a supply or demand zone, swing high, swing low. Okay. It takes a lot of money to break those structures. Or in this case, this is technically your change of character. Because we're in a temporary uptrend. Very temporary. And now I need to see that change of character back to the downside. I just call it break a structure. To me, it's all a break a structure. All right. Let me take a look and see if I've missed anybody up here. We've got the cash market opening in 32 minutes. H. Waring Gism says tech is down 1% to 2% pre-market. Yeah, let's take a look at the indexes next. Still after that, good news on CPI, the market is still down. Well, I wouldn't say that's good news, Monster. I mean, again, it just met expectations. Good news would have been for the currency. Good news for the CPI would have meant exceeding expectations, meaning going higher. That would have been good news for currencies. Bad news for stocks. Bad news for the stock market would have meant missing 4.2, so staying in the 3 range. That would have been good news. But since we hit the forecast on the dot, it's priced in. It basically offsets itself. NQ? Yeah, okay. So that's, I think you're asking about the NQ, Bertram? Natural gas? Okay, yeah. Let's take a look at natural gas as well, Richie. So going back over here to my charts, having a look at the futures market. Since we don't have the cash open yet, we do have the ES here. Guys, when it comes to these indices overall, sorry, guys, I have a frog in my throat today. Ribbit. Ribbit. Let's see here. Let's just get my computer to work over here real quick. Gold, silver. Did I have some movement on my? Okay, so Dow is still, okay. So here's what I got. When it comes to the indices themselves, I'm just refreshing my bias over here. Yeah, so Dow is on my bullish list. So I'll tell you what I'm going to do, guys. I'm actually going to have a look at the CFD market because that's just personally where I have all my analysis. And I personally want to look at the SPX 500 USD, okay? So again, this is the CFD side of things. That's all real similar. You guys understand that, right? So anyway, the Dow is the one that I'm actually the most interested in at the moment. But we've got to make sure everything fits. So the dailies looks fine. But if you look at the dark red line, the 8 EMA, it's kind of closing its mouth. Just imagine that as an alligator. I know that sounds cheeky. I know that sounds silly. But what I'm saying is the mouth is closing, meaning that red line, that dark red line, is coming closer to the light red line. I don't like to see that. If I'm trying to buy this chart, I want to see the lines. If anything, I want to see the red line higher than the lower red line, okay? It's just kind of a mechanical way of looking at trend. At the end of the day, that's clearly an uptrend. You guys would agree. But that just makes me hesitate just a little bit. Just a little bit. So now let's go to a one chart look and look at the four-hour chart over here since we've already seen that the daily is where it's at. As far as Dow, I'm actually keeping an eye on this green box right here, guys. Basically, your 50,000 psychological area, but not because of the psychological number. Because I think we could possibly have a little bit of demand down here for possible bouts. I mean, we had some, you know, going down to a two-hour. We got some gaps coming out of this consolidation. That's what I'm trying to get at. Take a look at the four-hour. You basically got this fat, nosy candle. That closed just barely ahead of the 50% line of the range of the candle itself. You did have some volume stepping in. That's understandable. It's the start of the intraday session on May 21st. And then you had some pushes up, guys. You had some breaks of former support resistance lines. I know that because of these blue dash lines I draw up periodically. There you go. Now we're going back to the February highs. We got a break. So this zone right here was the last stop or the last pit stop before we broke a structure. And like I said earlier, it takes a lot of money to break structures, even if they are this old. Okay. So that's what we got with this particular zone. Now, as always, guys, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence. But anytime you see me drawing up a zone, it's because I either have interest in it or it could be a potential landmine. Okay. I also draw up zones for potential take profits. Because let's say I short. Okay. I wouldn't do it. But let's say I short from this supply zone up here. Okay. I want to take my profits. I want to buy to cover before we bounce into that demand. Because the unfilled order potential could very easily take my unrealized gains and wipe them out. Now, I want to look to buy. So that's what I'm keeping an eye on with this zone. I'm looking to possibly buy but sell up here just ahead of the supply zone. [00:48:59] Speaker ?: Okay. [00:48:59] Speaker 1: So, again, do your own due diligence. That is an area of interest for me. It is also a psychological level. On this four-hour time frame, same thing. We do have to – it will be forced to pierce the 200 EMA. And I use exponential EMAs, guys, or moving averages. I want to see the more recent candles' favorability to the price. Okay. So I like everything about it. I'm going to keep my eyes on it. But also, in the back of my mind, are prices cheap or expensive? Prices are pretty expensive. If we see this as our major swing low from the end of March to, obviously, current price, we're still pretty high on the curve. Pretty high on the curve. So that just makes me hesitate. In other words, I don't want to sell the farm for this trade. I don't want to sell the farm. I might just tiptoe in. This might just be a partial risk trade. [00:49:59] Speaker ?: Okay. [00:50:00] Speaker 1: So that's just – that's what I'm considering. Considering it – the best discount in the world would be cleared out here to the 46.5 area. This is lower on the curve. Would you guys agree? What the hell am I talking about curve? Tiger, what do you mean curve? I'm talking about curve analysis. Okay. If I run a trend-based Fib extension from this major swing low to the current swing high, you can see that it breaks it up into three sections. So this top section, obviously, there's your border for the top. Here's your border for the top section. This is your middle section, the red, with the red background. In fact, let me get rid of my sessions tool real quick so you guys can see the colors a little easier. The middle has got a slight red tint for the background. That's the middle zone. And then down here, below this red, between this red and this green, that's your lower third. So lower third, middle third, upper third. We're technically in the higher part. This is higher time frame stuff, guys. This isn't a big deal if you're a five-minute trader. But I'm talking about the higher time frame traders like me. Okay. Daily four-hour. I have to keep that in mind. Because when we look at it in that context, we're expensive. We're pretty high up. So, again, that's why I say I still like this as a trade. I just don't know that I'd want to be selling the farm to, you know, try to be a hero. Probably just go for a single. Not try to smash a home run. Just go for a single. [00:51:34] Speaker ?: Okay. [00:51:35] Speaker 1: And the single would be right there. So, again, do your own due diligence. Take what I say with a grain of salt. That's just based off 12 and a half years of study and supply and demand. And curve. Okay. Where price is on the overall curve. That's something that almost nobody else talks about is the curve. Got to know where we're at on the curve. Now, if you're trading on a smaller time frame, well, the curve is going to be different. [00:51:57] Speaker ?: Okay. [00:51:57] Speaker 1: Let's say we're looking at it from a four-hour point of view. Okay. The curve is now a little higher up, is it not? I'm just redoing it. I'm moving it. I'm moving the curve. So, again, this is just, it depends on the time frame. That's why there's a lot of gray area in trading, guys. Because a lot of it is dictated based off of the time frame you're looking at. Me, as a longer-term trader, I'm trying to go for, you know, a couple hundred pips. If I'm a short-term day trader, I'm probably only trying to go for about 10, 20, 30 pips. So, this curve analysis would be just fine. With this curve, that demand zone is now basically mostly in the lower third, is it not? But I'm also only trying to take a smaller amount of points or pips. So, you know, there's a lot of things that we can't really tell you what to do because it's dictated based off of the time frame. And what dictates the time frame? Your level of comfort. [00:53:03] Speaker ?: Okay. [00:53:03] Speaker 1: Not everybody's designed or built to be a short-term scalper. I'm not. I like swing trading. I like short-term swing trading. I like getting in and out of trades in about two to five days. That's my bread and butter. That's where I personally perform the best. And that's why I use the daily and the four-hour time frame to help me do that. And the one hour when I want to fine-tune the entry, right? But if you're an adrenaline junkie and you like playing slot machines all day, well, the scalping is probably for you. Penny stock trading is probably for you, okay? I did some penny stock trading, too. Before I realized real quick, hey, I'm way better at this slower stuff. Because a lot of the analysis that we do as a swing trader or a position trader goes out the window when you're scalping. You don't care as much about the fundamentals. You want to make sure you're not scalping before a CPI report comes out, for sure. So you still want to keep an eye on the economic calendar. But when it comes to longer-term projections, things like that, all that really matters is mainly your technicals. Because at the end of the day, you're trading against other retail traders. All right, let's get to NatGas. I've had a couple of you ask me about that. So, yeah, that's the only thing I'm interested in, guys, just to kind of put a bow on the indices, the equities, U.S. equities, is that Dow zone right here. Okay, sorry about that. Let's get to your NatGas. And then I'll probably get close to closing down shop right after. So when it comes to NatGas, let me get my daily on the right. Daily, the daily was looking pretty darn good when it comes to these uptrends. And it's still basically intact as far as your uptrend is concerned. But now if I get rid of that and go to a one-chart look, now if we look at the four-hour, this is what I'm looking at for NatGas, guys. So ever since we finally got that last bounce from this strong former support turned resistance, turned support again, and then we pushed up, we have left a couple, actually three, demand zones in its wake. So number one is the overall, the origin of this overall strong move up. But this is what you'd look at if you're on a higher timeframe. If we get a little closer to home, you can see I've drawn up this zone and this zone. When price was right in this area and we had broken this structure over here to the left, right here, that's when I drew up these zones. That's when I was the most excited, the most interested in these zones was when price was right here. What has happened since? Well, we missed the overhead supply that I drew up. So that's a good thing. That kept this bullish narrative intact because we missed this supply back here. I wanted to see that. Now, what happened? We had price return. Things were looking good. Okay, possible entry here. Possible entry. But then we just all of a sudden did an about face. We bounced up. And in the wake of this drop, we had a pretty strong supply zone created. Talking about this consolidation followed by this strong decline had a big gap. If we're looking at our runaway gaps, our acceleration gaps, our fair value gaps, as most of you call them, this is our gap. That's showing supply heavily exceeded demand, so much so that it left that giant gap that was even bigger than the zone. So that looked like a pretty strong supply zone as price was coming down here. So even in this, and plus it was coming in too hot and heavy. So this return to this zone or this zone would have probably just chewed right through. But instead, it did an about face, went back up, tested that supply, and that supply had unfilled orders because of this strong gap, because supply heavily exceeded demand. So in other words, if I'm a central bank or a financial institution, hedge fund, and I'm trying to short here or distribute my inventory, talking about Wyckoff, perhaps price dropped too fast to where I couldn't finish my order. So what happens? Well, if price comes back, I want to fulfill the rest of my order. Sure enough, that's what happens. Price comes back into that supply. There's unfilled orders there. As evidenced by this gap, the likelihood of them missing out on their full order was pretty high. So when price comes back, they finish their order or just add to their order, distribute more of their order, and then we get a big price push down. So the question is, is this enough distance covered to where those banks can start buying back their inventory? Well, I think we could have possible help here. I just dislike the fact that it's such a skinny zone. So I guess I say all that to say, keep an eye on this 3.076 area. As always, do your own due diligence. I'm not liable for your losses. But I would be interested to see if we could get a bounce here, because we did have, when we're looking at our volume spread analysis candles underneath, we did have on this leg out, which was an expanded range candle, this was an expanded range candle itself, we had a lot of volatility that took place. So that leads me to believe that we had the same situation down here. Consolidation, and then we had accumulation, possible accumulation from banks and institutions. But price ran away, again, just like what happened up here, before they had a chance to finish their order. So I say all that to say, perhaps there's more unfilled orders left here for a possible bounce up. But it's just such a skinny zone that that's my only personal drawback. I would have liked this zone to be about twice that size, guys. Definitely small, definitely bigger than that. But one positive about this drop and then push back up is that there were these buyers that stepped in to push up. Where do they put their stop losses? Probably down in that same area. If I can click my thing here. There's probably going to be some unfilled, there's probably going to be some liquidity right here. Buyers step in. They put their stop losses below. The opposite of a buy is a sell order. What do banks and institutions need to fuel their buy orders when price comes back to this zone? They need sell orders. So push those sell orders. Fast forward that inside of this demand. And I think that could possibly give us a spot for a potential buy. Based off the liquidity and based off the unfilled order potential that lies here. So that's one idea on net gas. Ordinarily, I would say the origin of the strong move up would be the higher probability. And it still probably is because we did get another zone down here at the bottom. But when price pushed up, it got lazy after it broke structure. It kind of reset itself. We had about 4, 8, 12, 16 hours where it just kind of slowly trickled back down before getting another strong push up and even stronger push. So that's why I'm personally more interested in this demand zone up here rather than the true origin of the overall strong move. It's because of the strength of this move looking stronger than the strength of this move. So I tried to kind of go through that as in-depth as I could without trying to confuse you. Hopefully that helps. But, yeah, keep an eye on those spots. Again, do your own thing. Not financial advice. That's why I have my little disclaimer box up here. Not financial advice. Trading is high risk. Okay, guys? Keep that in mind. Just trying to protect myself, protect the company, all that type of stuff. But, yeah, just keep an eye on that. See if that doesn't help you out as far as Nat Gas goes. It's obviously, we're talking weather, okay? It was 90 degrees yesterday here in Kansas. Kansas gets all the seasons, guys. We get a lot of, well, not a lot. We get at least one or two snows a year. Or we usually get a few inches. Get a lot of hot summers. Really nice, cool autumns. Nice, cool springs. Well, warm springs. But then summer, like it's turning into, now it gets hot. So, there's a lot of lack of demand throughout the U.S., among other countries, because of the movement of the weather, the hemispheres, all that fun stuff. So, the demand is lower, and the supply of Nat Gas, I heard it one time was, or I read one time, a while back, where it was pretty high. But I think it's kind of shifted a little bit. So, that's partly why we're getting this spike up. So, again, Nat Gas is one of my newest assets, guys. Full disclosure or full transparency for you guys. Nat Gas is one of my newest ones. Been trying to study up on it quite a bit. But at the end of the day, when it comes to market structure and the technicals, it's all the same. So, the way, the technical setup I just showed you is, it is the technicals. It's no different than asking me if I'm a currency pair or stock or whatever the case is. So, yeah, hopefully that helps. That was a little more in-depth. I felt like I owed you that since you asked that question a while back. I didn't get to it. But, anyway, yeah, that's Nat Gas. And I'm doing Nat Gas shorts as we speak. So, again, guys, I'll just reference this one last time. If you go over here into the commodities playlist, I started this with oil. And then I jumped into some gold strategies. And then now I'm doing the Widowmaker, Nat Gas. So, definitely go check out these last seven that I've added up here if you are a Nat Gas trader. And let me know what you think. Okay? Just let me know what you think on that. But, guys, I think that's about it. Yeah, like I said, we already went through the currencies. We went through the Dow. I showed you the idea that I have there. And that's it. That's all I'm looking at. At the end of the day, it's pretty slim pickings for me. Again, those zones are, the price is too far away from all the dollar-based FX pairs. Too far away from the zones. So, I just need some retracements from Friday's NFP numbers. That's really what it all accounts to. And so far, about the closest one is about 40 pips away. That's about it. So, I'm just sitting on my hands. Last thing I want to do is get excited and jump into a trade for no reason. But I don't have a reason to jump into a trade right now. So, it's days like today where I'll just focus on my content creation. I've got alerts set on all the ones that I am interested in, as you can see here. There's my alerts right here on the right. So, if they hit, great. If they don't hit, that's fine. I'm a retired trader. It's got to be a great setup to pull me out of retirement to trade. And that's exactly what happened for me the last time on pound dollar, two weeks ago. That's why I sat on that trade for two weeks. That's why I finally got to close it out for profit on Sunday. So, anyway, hope that helps. Guys, last thing is definitely, please do like, share, subscribe. Again, the algorithm says three quarters you guys have not subscribed. Please do so and let us know how we can improve. Let us know what potential series or projects you'd like us to create. Give me some ideas on what I can create shorts for. You guys would put that in the, go ahead and put that in the chat or just reply to some of the shorts and content pieces that I create and get released. So, but yeah, like, share, subscribe. I'll be back tomorrow. Guys, let me tell you real quick before I get off what time I'll be on tomorrow. I just need to double check my time so that you guys know. You guys have been awesome. Tomorrow I will be on at 8. 8.15 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Okay. 8.15. And that will be for the PPI. Okay. Tomorrow's all about the PPI release for the U.S. dollar and unemployment claims coming out 15 minutes after that. So, remember, I start about 15 minutes prior to these major high-impact events. So, that's the purpose of the times fluctuating and change it for you guys. So, yeah. Tomorrow's 8.15 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Again, that will be a 15-minute preview of the PPI report and the unemployment claims coming out. We'll do the eight chart look just like we see here. That way you guys can get a really good visual of what actually happens on all the markets. Again, I do this because I want to know first and foremost, is this, is it giving us more of a risk-on vibe or a risk-off vibe? It's the whole purpose of doing this. So, anyway, guys, hope you learned something today. Peace, love, and chicken grease. I'll talk to you guys later.