'You fight your way to the negotiating table': Analyst on US-Iran diplomacy

[0:00] Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Arachie, is back in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad. [0:04] Earlier, he was in Oman, where he held discussions on the U.S.-Israeli war. [0:09] Arachie also had phone calls with Qatar's foreign minister, as well as Turkish, Saudi and Egyptian officials. [0:16] On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump decided not to send his envoys to Pakistan, [0:22] saying that a new peace proposal from Tehran was not good enough. [0:26] Let's just remind you of what the sticking points between the U.S. and Iran are right now. [0:31] Tehran is demanding an end to what it calls aggression and targeted assassinations. [0:36] It's also seeking guarantees against future attacks and reparations for war damages. [0:42] Tehran is also calling for an end to fighting on all fronts, including those involving its allied groups. [0:49] And it wants sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz recognized. [0:52] Iran has rejected a 15-point list sent by President Trump in late March. [0:58] U.S. media say that list includes Iran dismantling its nuclear facilities and promising never to develop nuclear weapons. [1:06] The U.S. is also calling on Tehran to limit the range and number of ballistic missiles it has, [1:11] to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end its support for regional allies. [1:16] Let's speak now to Mark Kimmett, who is a retired U.S. general and a former assistant secretary of state for political and military affairs. [1:24] General, it's good to see you again. [1:26] So today we've seen Iran's foreign minister leave Islamabad. [1:29] He went to Oman. [1:30] While he was there, he spoke to the Sultan of Oman. [1:32] He also had numerous calls with Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia. [1:37] Now he's back in Islamabad, while the U.S. has canceled sending its people to talk to him in Islamabad. [1:45] Is this diplomacy still alive or drifting right now? [1:50] Well, first of all, we also have to make clear that the Americans were on the plane, ready to come, [1:56] and it was the Iranians that said, [1:57] We know we told you that we were going to have some discussions in Islamabad. [2:02] We're going to send our foreign minister out of country. [2:05] So I think what we have here is just some typical diplomatic issues that come up, [2:12] but they typically come up in private. [2:14] The one thing that I would reproach both countries for, it's horrible, horrible message discipline. [2:20] This shouldn't be worked out among us inside the media, inside the public domain. [2:24] When you have these, if you're truly interested in diplomacy, [2:29] it's done in the back channels, in the background, and quietly. [2:32] President Trump has been telling the U.S. media on Sunday morning that we're going to do this by phone. [2:37] He said if Iran wants to negotiate, then they can call us. [2:41] I mean, this, you think, doesn't suggest a breakdown here, just a repositioning. [2:47] As I said, it's the back channels are active. [2:49] There is something going on under the hood here. [2:52] Yeah, I think so. [2:52] We're actually hearing about some unreported plans, unofficially reported plans, [2:58] this 10-10 plan where the Iranians would consider suspending enrichment for 10 years [3:04] and then after 10 years go back to 3.67 in return for removing the uranium, [3:12] lifting of sanctions, and getting some money from the U.S. as well. [3:17] But even these points that we're talking about, they're so ludicrous, [3:21] they're obviously meant for public consumption, not for diplomatic negotiations. [3:26] With the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. blockade still in place, [3:31] and Iran very much in control of the neck of the Strait of Hormuz, [3:37] how dangerous a moment is this? [3:40] I mean, could one incident at sea undo all that's going on behind the scenes in the back channels? [3:45] Well, certainly. [3:46] I think all of us, for 20 years, back 20 years when I was working at CENTCOM as one of the planners, [3:53] this issue of miscalculation always came up. [3:56] This notion that we look at our militaries, the British military, the Qatari military, [4:00] the U.S. military is very, very command-centric. [4:04] There's a lot of, particularly for the IRGC, a lot of latitude that's given to the low-level commanders. [4:10] Imagine a low-level commander of, say, 15 speedboats saying, [4:15] I think it's time for us to take some unilateral action on our own [4:18] and go after some American ships in the ocean, in the Gulf, anywhere. [4:25] And if there were some significant casualties, [4:26] I think that would not simply restart the fighting, [4:30] but it would incredibly intensify the fighting as well. [4:33] Can this kind of parallel track ever work, [4:37] this sort of military pressure on the one hand while following a path of diplomatic outreach? [4:45] I mean, is that a recipe for success? [4:48] Oh, it's been done years and years. [4:52] In fact, this is typically what not simply this environment, but other environments. [4:58] You fight your way to the negotiating table. [5:00] Obviously, take a look at what's happened in Ukraine and Russia. [5:03] It hasn't worked yet. [5:04] But this notion of continuing to fight, and in the case of the Americans, [5:09] viewing that they can compel the Iranians back to the negotiating table, [5:13] I think has a history. [5:16] It's not always a successful history, but we'll see if it works here. [5:19] So how do you break the stalemate? [5:20] I mean, at some point, somebody is going to have to back down. [5:23] Well, I think that backing down is going to be done behind the scenes, not for public consumption. [5:30] And there'll just be a gentle announcement. [5:32] Okay, we've decided to have negotiations without poking fingers. [5:35] Okay. [5:35] Yeah. [5:36] Is anyone going to be able to walk away without losing face from this, if a deal is eventually done? [5:42] Well, again, it doesn't matter if they lose face or not. [5:45] They're going to both sell it as a victory for their side. [5:49] So you're talking, this is just typical negotiations. [5:52] There is compromise. [5:54] And you can either see compromise as a victory because you made nine of your ten points. [5:58] You can see it by losing face because you didn't get ten out of ten. [6:02] General, it's always good to talk to you. [6:04] Many thanks indeed for being with us once again. [6:05] General, Mark can end there. [6:06] Thank you.