Will Trump Really Leave Nato?

[0:00] Hello. As far as I see today, there's one big story, which is the conflict in the Middle East, [0:05] but there are three strands to it. There's the British political strand because Keir [0:09] Somer did a news conference in Downing Street. There's a Donald Trump strand because he's been [0:14] saying a few things since we last recorded an episode of Newscast. He's also preparing to do [0:19] a big statement to the American people on Thursday night. And then there's just what's happening in [0:24] the global economy as more and more consequences of the conflict are being felt in various parts [0:29] of the world. So we will draw those three different strands together for you on this [0:34] episode of Newscast. Hello, it's Adam in the Newscast studio. Hello, it's Henry Zephyr here [0:41] in Westminster. And this is Lise Doucette. I'm in London. And we're also joined by Michelle [0:46] Veazey-Bachman, who's the Senior Maritime Intelligence Analyst at Windward. Hello again, [0:51] Michelle. Hi, Adam. So we've got a maritime expert, an international diplomacy expert and a political [0:57] expert. And those are the three big strands that we're going to pull apart, but also then probably [1:02] tie. [1:02] back up together on this episode of Newscast. Lise, first of all, we should say we're recording [1:07] this episode of Newscast on Wednesday afternoon, just after lunchtime. The big thing that is [1:13] probably going to happen in the middle of the night on Thursday, though, which is Donald Trump [1:17] doing a statement from the Oval Office. But in the meantime, he has said plenty of quite dramatic [1:25] things in other forums, whether on interviews or on social media. One of the big things is he says [1:30] he's thinking about pulling out of NATO. What do you make of that? [1:32] So he his exact wording, and I think these days, we really have to look at his exact wording. He [1:39] said, I'm strongly considering pulling out of the NATO military alliance. In fact, he added on to it [1:45] and said, it's beyond reconsideration. If you look back at what President Trump has said in this [1:53] term, and also in his first term, he often takes out this threat to leave the 77 year old military [2:01] alliance. And he said, I'm strongly considering pulling out of the NATO military alliance. In fact, [2:02] he said, I'm strongly considering pulling out of the NATO military alliance. And apparently, he just [2:06] about did it in his first term, the former Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg wrote [2:12] in his memoir, that he had to literally pull President Trump back from the brink of leaving [2:20] the alliance. And in his telling, Jens Stoltenberg went on Fox News, and he said it all in his [2:27] memoir, he said, I was only I was only thinking of one television viewer. And that was President [2:32] Donald Trump. [2:33] And he credited the US President and Commander in Chief for really pushing other NATO members [2:40] to step up considerably their military spending. And apparently, President Trump was watching. [2:46] He tweeted out his acknowledgement of the praise on Twitter. And then Jens Stoltenberg writes that [2:52] President Trump didn't give the speech that had already been drafted by the White House [2:57] to announce he was pulling out. So he's announcing now he's going to pull out. This time, I think [3:04] President Trump is even angrier, angrier because his NATO partners have not enthusiastically joined [3:11] his war against Iran alongside Israel. And he and that is because one, they were never consulted [3:19] on this war. And two, they still really, like all of us don't really know what the end game is. What [3:27] are the main goals in this war? And quite frankly, President Trump only looked to his NATO members, [3:34] whether he when he realized he was in trouble with the Strait of Hormuz, and that he looked to them [3:39] to try to get them to help him to, to get Iran from stop blocking the maritime traffic in this [3:49] critical waterway. The last thing I will say is that he said in his remarks to the Telegraph, [3:55] he said, I thought it should be automatic, which betrays yet another misunderstanding that Trump [4:01] has of the military alliance and those who, [4:04] do know the alliance will say that in their founding treaty, there was this principle of [4:09] collective defense, that an attack on one is an attack on all, it can it will be invoked when there [4:16] is a consensus among NATO members. It's only been involved once in its long history. And that was [4:21] after the September 11th attacks in the United States. But what after another NATO member said, [4:27] this is not our war, this what's happening now is not NATO's war. [4:31] And of course, Lisa, there'll be a whole lot more to say about, [4:34] Donald Trump's position when he addresses the American people in the middle of the night, UK time. [4:39] It's interesting. Everyone waits with bated breath to see what President Trump says next. [4:45] It's become a bit of a pastime for journalists and pundits, I think people the world, the world [4:50] over. And the difficulty for all of us is that he keeps changing his mind, or he keeps repeating [4:57] the same things over and over again. Take one of them that he said, [5:00] when it was announced that he'd make the speech, he then said, well, [5:04] I'm going to end the war very soon. And then he says maybe in the next two or three weeks. [5:11] It's almost exactly the same wording he used on March the ninth. When he said oil prices, [5:18] the stocks rose, oil prices fell, President Trump announced on CBS News, [5:23] I'm going to end the war very soon. I can end it pretty quickly, he said. [5:28] But if you go down and read exactly what he said in that interview to CBS News, when the [5:33] Correspondent Pressle, [5:35] him, well, how are you going to end the war? He said, oh, it's all in, it's only in my mind. I [5:40] don't know if it's in anyone else's mind, which made you realize that he was just musing about [5:47] something which, as we all know, is a very, very consequential war, which is a fact, he doesn't [5:53] call it a war, obviously, that should be pointed out too, called very, very consequential military [5:58] operations, causing economic shocks the world over, including here in Britain, and obviously [6:05] raising tensions with his partners, including Britain. So we're waiting to hear from Donald [6:10] Trump in his statement from the Oval Office, which will be on Thursday night. We've already [6:14] heard from Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, who did a news conference in the [6:18] press conference room in Downing Street. Henry, you were there. Let's listen to one of the kind [6:22] of the actually the dramatic bit of this news conference, because it was all quite kind of [6:26] detail focused. [6:28] But Keir Starmer did this assessment of what's heading our way economically. [6:34] It is now clear that the impact of this war will affect the future of our country. So today, [6:42] I want to reassure the British people that no matter how fierce this storm, [6:48] we are well placed to weather it. [6:51] And Henry, I suppose the Prime Minister wants people to focus on the second half of that [6:54] sentence, which is the reassurance message. I think I was focusing on the first half, which was, [6:58] oh, things are going to get rockier. [7:01] Yeah. [7:01] And I think that's the key. [7:01] I think actually one of the purposes of this press conference, Adam, was for the Prime [7:05] Minister to just seed that idea in people's minds that this is going to be quite a profound [7:12] economic moment. And while the Prime Minister dedicated a lot of at least his opening comments [7:19] to reassuring people, or he hoped it would be reassuring about various measures that [7:23] the government has taken that are coming into effect either today because it's April the [7:28] 1st or next week, because that's the start of the tax year. [7:31] And I think the Prime Minister has taken a lot of that, which he believes will ease the cost [7:34] of living. As he acknowledged, none of those announcements were new. And I think he was [7:40] beginning just to plant the idea among people that this government is going to have to and will [7:46] take extra measures before long to respond to what he called a coming storm. And he said it might be [7:54] fierce. So for all that the Prime Minister wanted to talk about reassurance here, for all that this [7:59] government, unlike some other governments, is not taking emergency measures yet. [8:03] It felt certainly in the room, like quite a gloomy and pessimistic message that the Prime Minister [8:09] was delivering. And it was quite different. Well, I suppose actually, it was very similar [8:12] to the address that we got overnight, Tuesday into Wednesday from the Australian Prime Minister, [8:17] Anthony Albanese, in terms of it was preparing people for a situation to get worse. But Anthony [8:23] Albanese went further about advice for how to deal with potential squeezes on the supply of fuel. [8:31] And also in terms of what the [8:33] Australian government was going to do to help people with the cost of living. So let's have a [8:36] little listen to the tone that was coming from Canberra. [8:40] You should go about your business and your life as normal. Enjoy your Easter. And if you're hitting [8:46] the road, don't take more fuel than you need. Just fill up like you normally would. Think of others [8:52] in your community, in the bush and in critical industries. And over coming weeks, if you can [8:58] switch to catching the train or bus or tram to work, do so. That builds our reserves, [9:03] and it saves fuel for people who have no choice but to drive. Farmers and miners and tradies who [9:10] need diesel every single day. And all those shift workers and nurses who do so much for our country. [9:18] The months ahead may not be easy. I want to be upfront about that. No government can promise [9:25] to eliminate the pressures that this war is causing. I can promise we will do everything [9:32] we can to protect Australia from the worst of it. [9:36] These are uncertain times, but I'm absolutely certain of this. We will deal with these global [9:42] challenges the Australian way, working together and looking after each other, as we always have. [9:50] And Henry, the Australian way is to quite gently, gently tell people to save fuel, [9:56] to save petrol and diesel. That doesn't seem to be the British way at the moment. [9:59] No. And, you know, some countries are going the British way and some countries are going [10:05] the Australian way. I mean, [10:06] it's interesting, not just because Australia is a country which has taken a different approach to [10:10] the UK, but also because actually, you know, if you'd asked me at any point, really, to identify [10:16] one government around the world from which Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party here [10:22] most openly takes inspiration on public policy and on politics more generally, [10:27] it is the Albanese Labour government in Australia. So it is quite striking that [10:32] they've ended up in a different place on this. I was also very struck this morning. [10:36] I saw some comments from one of the European commissioners yesterday. [10:40] Now, this isn't sort of formal EU policy, but urging people to work from home, to drive less, [10:46] to drive more slowly when they do drive, to fly less. And so you have an Australian ally. [10:55] You have the EU with which Sir Keir Starmer was clear in this press conference at a later point. [11:01] He wants to get much closer in quite a different place to the UK. [11:06] And so, you know, that's a big point. [11:07] It's a big call that Keir Starmer has made. [11:08] And we'll come on to the EU angle in a second, because it was very interesting. [11:12] But Michelle, this is where geography explains politics, doesn't it? [11:16] Because actually, Australia, because of where it is and where it gets its oil and gas from, [11:21] is actually a little bit more exposed to the forces that have been unleashed by the war between the US and Iran. [11:29] Yeah, completely. [11:29] And Australia has shut down a lot of its refineries, which is making it even more reliant on diesel and gasoline. [11:37] And transportation fuels from Asian countries. [11:40] And of course, a lot of those countries have now stopped their refineries exporting those products. [11:46] And so they're having to source from the United States and other places where they're in competition with the UK. [11:53] So, yes, and I can just on a personal note, my husband's still stuck in Australia and he's reporting panic buying. [12:00] So, you know, there's another Australian way underway there as well. [12:04] Interesting. [12:04] So you can see Anthony Albanese is responding. [12:07] It's actually quite a different situation from the one Keir Starmer is responding to today. [12:12] Yeah, completely. [12:13] And then, Henry, just in terms of the domestic British politics, [12:17] it does seem all the other political parties across the UK, [12:21] because there are elections coming up across the UK on May the 7th, are pushing for more action. [12:27] Yeah, particularly, well, there's two kind of categories. [12:30] There's household energy bills and then there's prices at the pump. [12:34] And when it comes to household energy bills, [12:36] Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Rowland, they're pushing for more action. [12:36] Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Rowland, they're pushing for more action. [12:37] And then there's the [12:52] So the energy price cap, which took effect today for most households, means that actually prices are falling for the next three months and then inevitably they will go up. [12:57] But Keir Starmer is saying, actually, wait for the autumn because the current energy price cap is going to elapse in July. [13:03] Well, that's the summer. People are less likely to stick on the heating then. [13:06] And therefore it's the autumn. [13:08] That really matters. [13:09] Now, there are various political parties who, both from to Labour's left and to their right, who think that's inadequate. [13:15] And then there's prices at the pump. [13:18] And this is an interesting one. [13:19] I mean, as it stands, the government is theoretically committed to increasing fuel duty by 1p in the pound in September and then it going up again in increments over the coming months. [13:35] There is no one, literally no one. I speak. [13:38] To Westminster who thinks that is going to happen. [13:41] Keir Starmer has said it's under review. [13:44] I suspect at some point before long he will confirm that it's not going to happen, but clearly he doesn't want to do so now. [13:51] And that has been one line of attack from other parties. [13:54] And then there's that broader debate that we've spoken about before that I think is going to be one of the debates of 2026 in the UK, [14:01] which is about the government's energy policy more broadly and whether it has the right mix and whether it is [14:07] doing the right things in terms of the balance between renewable and non-renewable forms of energy. [14:13] And just to be explicit about where the other political parties are, the Conservatives and Reform UK are both calling for VAT to be taken off household energy bills [14:21] and that that proposed hike in fuel duty June, September should be cancelled. [14:26] The Liberal Democrats are also calling for that increase in fuel duty not to go ahead. [14:31] And it sounds like Ed Davey is preparing to call for some big emergency tax cuts in the next couple of days. [14:36] The Greens say that the government. [14:37] should spend billions of pounds to make sure that domestic energy stays at the level of the price cap where it is now, [14:43] because it's meant to go and is likely to go up in July. [14:46] Plaid Cymru say that they would like to see the government doing more support for energy users in Wales. [14:53] And the SNP have been arguing that all of this proves that the Scottish government should have more control over energy policy. [15:00] Right. Let's talk about the Strait of Hormuz. [15:02] Michelle, can you give us a bit of an update about how open or closed or [15:07] in between that waterway is at the moment? [15:10] Sure. So Iran really has the world over a barrel is my conclusion. [15:15] The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps controlled corridor that they put in place around the 15th of March, that's being consolidated. [15:24] It's a permission based transit system. [15:28] There's about a dozen vessels going through inbound and outbound daily. [15:33] That's about 92% drop in [15:37] established transits. [15:39] Those ships that are getting through it linked to China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, [15:45] or their vessels that are supplying agricultural products to or from Iran [15:49] and allies or non-aligned countries who have done deals in order to get cargo in and out. [15:57] And really, it's kind of like the Houthis playbook of the Red Sea, but on steroids. [16:03] And I can see, you know, no, [16:07] evidence that this is going to to get any better really um perhaps if anything we will see more [16:14] cargoes um coming through this permission uh permission based system and and perhaps even [16:23] tolls levied as well and i suppose even if we end up in a more sort of stable situation where there [16:29] are more ships going through and they're probably having to pay a toll to the iranians or the irgc [16:35] to get through safely as you said that's still a tiny fraction of what would normally be going [16:40] through the strait of hormuz yeah the rules are also really unclear and ambiguous and [16:47] interestingly you know some of the bulk carriers that are going through a grease zone so that's [16:51] suggesting that there's complex commercial and government negotiations going underway [16:55] with banks and marine insurers and you know older ships are being used there's also a lot of dark [17:01] transits uh vessels that are going through without their vessel chat [17:05] vessel tracking transponder um on and you know but in terms of iranian oil it's business as [17:12] usual you know i've seen no you know while everybody else's cargo is being held up um [17:19] iranian energy commodities liquefied petroleum gas crude petroleum products that's all getting [17:23] through you know in the same numbers as before and lease one of the other things that came out of [17:28] keir starmer's news conference in london on on wednesday morning was that the british foreign [17:35] government is going to host this virtual meeting with 35 countries who have an interest in keeping [17:41] the strait of hormuz open what's a way of thinking about about the consequences of that and all these [17:47] other countries potentially getting involved in the region but not now and certainly not in a [17:54] offensive way in the in the joining the conflict with iran i think what we are seeing now is that [18:01] a number of countries including britain are trying to [18:05] draw a line between this general war against iran alongside israel which many countries including [18:13] britain still have reservations about this war but because what was widely described as a war of [18:19] choice unleashed on february the 28th by the united states and israel has now turned into a [18:24] war of necessity because iran has successfully shifted it to its weaponized the strait of [18:32] hormuz and britain and other not just nato-americans but all the other countries in the [18:35] world have a strong interest in keeping this crucial waterway open and of course we should [18:42] also underline that what we have also seen when britain did uh eventually offer its bases offer [18:48] its aircraft it's because it also has to be seen to be helping out its critical allies in the gulf [18:55] if they were just standing idly by while they came under attack from [18:59] iranian missiles this would live long in the memories so we're seeing a bit of a scramble [19:05] between the two countries which are now trying to narrow down the strait of hormuz and what [19:11] is in our national interest what is legal and what really matters now and so to the straight [19:16] of hormones i think military experts would say that it is really really risky costly and not [19:24] necessarily effective in the long run to try to open the strait militarily but it but it will [19:30] need at some point a diplomatic solution as we already heard some countries are getting their [19:35] they're talking to Iran. And if you look at what happened in the other strait, which may become [19:42] a household name, like the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandeb, when the Houthis in Yemen [19:49] were able to significantly disrupt traffic there between 2023, 2025, the European Union did [19:57] organize a defensive naval operation in that crucial, around that crucial waterway. How much [20:06] it's achieved, that would still be discussed. But they did move together and try to move some [20:12] vessels into that crucial area in order to protect the Bab al-Mandeb. So I think this is what Britain [20:21] wants, not just to do something, but be seen to do something. And of course, President Trump goes [20:27] back to the past. He goes back to the past. He goes back to the past. He goes back to the past. [20:27] You know, mid-March, he did say, you need to come and help me, the Strait of Hormuz. And then [20:32] one of the things he's been saying again in the last few days is, well, I don't care about [20:36] the Strait of Hormuz. I'm going to make a deal, even if the strait remains shut, because it's [20:42] not my, we're not worried about that at all, which is to some extent true. It's largely European [20:47] countries. Asian countries, in particular, are really affected. And most of all, China, [20:53] although it has more, reserved more buffers than some other Asian states. [20:57] So he's saying to them, it's your issue. And then the next day, he says something different. [21:03] Although, Henry, it was intriguing, Keir Starmer talking about the Strait of Hormuz, [21:07] because he was very much sticking to his line of, this is not our conflict, [21:11] we're not going to get involved. Then you read about this, and you might call it the Coalition [21:16] of the Willing for the Strait of Hormuz, that it's about creating some kind of stable situation [21:23] after the fighting has ended. But then at the same time, Starmer said to him, [21:27] and I'll say this today at that news conference to you guys in the room, it is in Britain's [21:31] national interest to make sure that there's freedom of navigation for international shipping [21:36] in the Strait of Hormuz, which to me sounds like a rationale for intervening militarily, [21:42] potentially before the conflict has ended. Because if it's in Britain's national interest [21:46] to keep ours and everyone else's economies going. [21:48] I guess the implication of his position is that he doesn't believe that a British military [21:53] intervention before the end of a conflict would make it more likely that the Strait [21:57] of Hormuz would be a political event. And that's a very interesting point. But I think, [21:57] I think you're right that that is an element of the government's position that merits further [22:04] scrutiny. I mean, by the way, one other thing that the Prime Minister said quite late on in [22:09] the press conference about the Strait of Hormuz that was interesting. Other people have said this, [22:13] but I don't think Keir Starmer has said this before, was he said, just because the conflict [22:19] might end, that doesn't necessarily mean that the Strait of Hormuz would then open. And as I say, [22:26] some analysts and other [22:27] world leaders I've heard mentioned that possibility. But I think that was another [22:33] gloomy moment from the Prime Minister, which spoke to how gloomy and pessimistic they are in [22:38] government, at least in some of the scenarios that might transpire. I just thought that was [22:42] an interesting moment to mark. [22:44] Michelle, Lise mentioned the Bab al-Mandeb, which is the waterway off the coast of Yemen, so is [22:51] affected by whatever the Houthis do. Tell us a little bit more about that and what that might [22:56] become the next infamous conflict. [22:57] Michelle Lise mentioned the Bab al-Mandeb, which is the waterway off the coast of Yemen, so is affected by whatever the Houthis do. Tell us a little bit more about that and what that might become the next infamous conflict. [22:58] And this is a bit of this chute point. [22:59] The Houthis discovered very early on that they could get themselves a very big [23:04] international profile by disrupting global trade that goes from [23:06] Asia through to Europe via the Strait and then Red Sea and the Suez [23:11] Canal. And they attacked or threatened [23:14] to attack any vessels. Western affiliated [23:16] vessels or those linked to Israel. And so traffic at its worst was down 70%. [23:22] And then with the ceasefire in Gaza, traffic had just started coming [23:27] coming back, and it was down about 60%. And now, of course, [23:33] with the reentering the war, a lot of European and Western [23:38] affiliated ships have therefore decided to go around the Cape of [23:42] Good Hope as well. [23:43] And Michelle, every day, it seems to me there's a different [23:45] focus on a different commodity that might be running out [23:49] somewhere as a result of all of this. You hear people talking [23:53] about, oh, potentially, it could be medicines in the UK in a few [23:56] months' time, or it could be fuel for commercial jets in a [24:01] few weeks' time. What things have you got your eye on? [24:06] Well, I'm actually watching jet fuel really closely. And that's [24:10] because jet fuel storage isn't really available. It degrades [24:14] very quickly. And so when you look at jet fuel on the water, [24:18] it has plunged extremely quickly. And for example, I [24:24] measure long range tankers there, the tankers that ship [24:27] refined products from the west to east or east to west. And on [24:33] March 20, there were 78 of those tankers on the water with jet [24:38] fuel. And then when I did the numbers again, on March 28, there [24:41] were only 22. So there is a looming crisis for global [24:46] airlines because of the availability. And of course, you [24:49] know, prices have doubled. So that's, I think, the most [24:53] critical area to watch at the moment. [24:56] Right, because the jet fuel, for example, is going to be in the [24:58] world's oceans in real time. Interesting. [25:04] Yeah, it dropped dramatically. [25:06] Henry, the other thing that really made my ears prick up at [25:09] Keir Starmer's news conference was he was super enthusiastic [25:13] about the UK's relationship with the EU and deepening that, even [25:18] more so than Rachel Reeves was a couple of weeks ago, where she [25:20] said one of her big focuses was going to be on alignment with [25:24] the EU's standards. [25:26] Yeah, I mean, let's just be clear first. I agree, it was a [25:28] really interesting and important. But actually, the [25:32] substance of what the prime minister said on the EU, nothing [25:35] there was new. He was talking it up rhetorically. But we already [25:40] knew there was going to be the second annual UK EU summit round [25:43] about May or June. We already knew that there were various [25:45] negotiations underway triggered at the first annual UK EU summit [25:48] almost a year ago, which are going to come to completion. [25:50] Then we already knew that the UK wanted to announce further areas [25:54] of negotiation to get close with the EU headed into a third one. [25:57] So none of that was new. [25:59] However, the decision of the prime minister to emphasise all of [26:03] that in today's press conference, a press conference that was called [26:07] in the context of a spiralling conflict about which the UK and the [26:10] US disagree, was deliberate and was clearly meaningful, because I [26:16] think it was the prime minister, stressing the one of perhaps the [26:22] key solution he sees to an economy which has suffered from [26:26] sluggish growth for some time. And in his eyes, his [26:30] view is that the UK is probably going to be set back further by [26:32] this conflict and its fallout. Well, he sees one of the solutions [26:36] to that as a much closer relationship between the UK and the EU. [26:39] And clearly seen in that new context, this is especially significant. [26:43] And I suppose the proof of that pudding will be when this summit [26:46] happens in a few weeks time, the declaration or the document that [26:50] comes out of it, how long is the joint to do list between Brussels [26:55] and London about new areas of cooperation to explore? And how [26:59] deep that cooperation is going to be? That will be when we'll be [27:02] able to see in black and white what they've really got planned. [27:05] And what does the EU want in return? Because as you know better [27:07] than me, Adam, from your years in Brussels, no, definitely better [27:11] than me, you had binders and everything, you know that the EU, [27:17] you know, plays a tough negotiating hand. I mean, some of the [27:20] negotiations which Keir Starmer was talking up today, which will [27:23] come to fruition at that summit, there are big disagreements still [27:27] outstanding, for example, youth mobility. [27:29] Where there's going to be some sort of deal for young people to [27:33] move between the UK and the EU. The UK wants that to be capped. [27:37] The EU doesn't. And that is still outstanding in the weeks before [27:42] this summit takes place. And I wonder, and no stronger than that, [27:47] but I wonder whether now that Keir Starmer has put it essentially [27:51] publicly at the heart of his economic agenda in response to this [27:55] conflict, well, does that mean the EU knows that he really is desperate [27:59] for some of these deals, so they have a stronger hand to play? [28:03] And of course, worth also saying, because there was a brief moment [28:07] where it sort of almost appeared that Keir Starmer wasn't ruling out [28:10] membership of the single market and then pressed on it by another [28:14] journalist, he made clear that actually he was ruling it out. [28:16] So he said that Labour's 2024 election manifesto commitments [28:19] still stand, which is to say no membership of the customs union, [28:22] no membership of the single market. But from the sounds of things, [28:26] he wants the UK to get as close as possible to the [28:30] single market without full membership, which of course would come [28:32] with free movement of people, among other things. [28:35] Well, Theresa May sought something not that dissimilar to that some [28:40] years ago, and we ended up with endless rows about cherry picking [28:43] because the EU's view is that the UK shouldn't have all of the [28:46] perceived benefits of the single market without all of the perceived [28:49] drawbacks. So I think those are all debates that are clearly going [28:52] to start playing a much bigger role in British political life all [28:55] over again. [28:56] All I'll say is from the Brexit era, there is a binder, not on my old shelf, [29:00] but on the European Commission's shelf for a UK wide alignment to lots of [29:05] rules on the single market that we used to call the UK wide backstop, [29:10] which was designed so that it wasn't just Northern Ireland that was [29:13] following all those rules, but the whole of the UK. So there is a ready [29:16] made solution sitting, waiting to be dusted off. [29:20] And Adam, this is a question that I can't quite remember the answer to, [29:23] but you might. Did the Labour Party, when Sir Keir Starmer was its shadow [29:27] Brexit secretary, vote against that? [29:30] I can't remember. I can't remember. But let's check. Let's check hands on. [29:33] One for a future newscast. [29:34] And also what exactly form would that vote have taken? Because actually, [29:40] that was. [29:41] Was it meaningful vote two or three? [29:42] Yeah, exactly. I'm trying to remember which version of the deals actually got voted on. [29:46] Lise, don't laugh. Don't laugh. [29:47] Michelle and I are wondering, Michelle and I are wondering, can we get back to other binders? [29:52] Everyone has their own binders. I can actually see on everyone's shelves that there are multiple [29:56] forms of stationery doing the rounds today. Lise, I'm going to give you the last one. I'm going to give you the last one. [29:59] I'm going to give you the last word. And I suppose it's a tricky question, but I just [30:02] want to leave something in our minds that we can be thinking about in the hours before [30:06] Donald Trump does his big statement at 9pm US time on Thursday night. I suppose the reason [30:13] it's a tricky question is we just don't know what way he's going to go. But what would [30:16] you like us to be thinking about? [30:18] I think that as citizens, we have to listen carefully to what the US president and commander [30:24] in chief says. But we also have to listen. [30:28] Yeah. [30:29] Skeptically ask ourselves, has he said this before? Why is he saying this? Is he, as I [30:36] think has been pretty well confirmed, is he doing this to move the markets, to bring down [30:42] oil prices? Is this really? And if he talks about ending the war, whether very soon, winding [30:49] down, compare it to what is happening on the ground. Don't judge him by what he says, but [30:57] by what he does. [30:58] Very well. [30:59] Very wise words. Lise, thank you very much. [31:02] Thank you. [31:03] Michelle, good to catch up with you too. [31:04] Thanks, Adam. [31:05] And Henry, thanks for the view from Westminster. [31:07] Thank you very much, Adam. [31:08] And that is all for this episode of Newscast. Thank you very much to everyone who's been [31:11] on it. Thanks to you too for listening. We'll be back with another one very soon. And just [31:15] a reminder, we will be working on our first episode of ElectionCast, looking at the campaigns [31:22] in Scotland, Wales and areas of England where the local authorities are up for election. [31:26] We will be recording that on Thursday morning and it will appear in your feed. So if you're [31:27] interested, you can go to electioncast.org. [31:28] Thank you. [31:29] And we'll see you in the next episode of Newscast. [31:30] Thanks for watching. [31:31] And I'll see you in the next episode of Newscast. [31:32] Thanks for watching.