Will the US seize enriched uranium? Well, they've done it before — The Security Brief

[0:00] Donald Trump faces the defining decision of his presidency. [0:04] How to end this war in Iran with something that looks like victory. [0:08] But how does he get there? [0:09] Is there one more big operation that might unlock this negotiation? [0:13] Or are we heading for a dangerous stalemate? [0:16] The Pentagon says it's putting together plans for a short, sharp campaign. [0:20] A smash and grab raid of Iran's enriched uranium. [0:23] Could be one course of action that is now being planned. [0:26] We will take you through what that might look like. [0:28] Stay with us. [0:29] This is the security brief. [0:37] Mikey, a ceasefire buys time. [0:40] It doesn't buy peace. [0:42] So one presumes that right now U.S. military planners are looking at every course of action, [0:47] every scenario to try and force the Iranians to the table. [0:52] What do you think they might be looking at? [0:53] From looking at aircraft tracking sites on open source intelligence, [0:57] that's incredibly active at the moment. [0:59] And it's tracking a lot of U.S. military transport capability [1:04] that is going to and from bases in the U.K. [1:07] Now, Axios, they're also reporting from sources inside CENTCOM that they're working up a, quote, [1:14] short and powerful option package involving a wave of strikes on Iran. [1:19] Now, these courses of action could involve potentially softening up Cargill Island. [1:23] We've spoken about that. [1:25] It's where 90 percent of the crude oil comes out of potentially targeting any ports [1:30] that are being used to circumnavigate the U.S. blockade. [1:33] That would likely be the T-Lab, Tomahawk land attack missile. [1:36] That's the cruise missile that's launched from submarines and destroyers. [1:39] And then the USA-10 Warthog, that aircraft that's got the wings on that massive Gatling gun [1:45] with the big engines on it, it's basically like a tank in the sky. [1:49] And I think we could see activity with that aircraft, which we have seen already, [1:52] but increased activity over the Hormuz Strait, [1:55] targeting IRGC capability from fast attack crafts, mine lane vessels, drone launch sites, [2:01] as well as strikes on the more conventional capability, [2:04] like ballistic missiles and anti-shipping missiles. [2:06] OK. I mean, the peace talks are deadlocked on two fronts that, [2:11] obviously, the stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, [2:14] but also, running alongside that, Iran's nuclear ambitions. [2:18] If Iran refuses to give way on the nuclear question, which seems likely, [2:24] what are the options? [2:26] Yeah, there's a lot of options there, but they'll be prioritised, right? [2:30] So we know that U.S. special forces are in the region. [2:33] The 160th Night Stalkers that we saw during the raid on Maduro [2:37] – that's the Special Operations Aviation Regiment. [2:40] We know that U.S. Navy SEALs are out there from open source intelligence [2:43] and likely joined by Delta, although governments don't talk about the locations [2:48] as activity of special forces. [2:50] Which part of the country do you think they would be looking at most? [2:53] Well, we know that most of the 440 kilograms of enriched uranium [2:58] is at the Isfahan Nuclear Center, which was part of the targeting setup for Operation Midnight Hammer. [3:04] And whilst not the same, the U.S. has actually taken uranium from another country before. [3:12] What was that operation? [3:13] It was called Project Sapphire. [3:15] Let's just take a look at the map. [3:16] It was a covert operation carried out in 1994 between the U.S. and Kazakhstan [3:22] and the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IREA, shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union. [3:29] The operation was conducted in the east of Kazakhstan at the Olber Metallurgical Plant in Oskerman. [3:35] The U.S. removed 600 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, likely uranium-235, the isotope, [3:41] and that's enough for around what was estimated to be 20 nuclear bombs. [3:44] And they were housed in poorly secured warehouses [3:47] and then relocated to Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. [3:50] And just explain to us how that operation was conducted. [3:53] So it was a civilian military team. [3:55] It landed at an airport around 10 kilometers away from the warehouses [3:59] and they traveled to the plant before sunrise and left after sunset to avoid public notice. [4:05] But it was under the guise of a humanitarian mission. [4:08] Honestly, I've never heard of that operation. [4:11] But really, it only goes so far when we're talking about Iran [4:14] because the enriched uranium in Iran quite obviously is not stored in poorly equipped, poorly defended warehouses. [4:22] It's underground. [4:24] It's heavily fortified. [4:26] It's defended by a regime that knows the Americans are coming. [4:29] So this is quite different. [4:31] Yeah, Project SAFIRE, there are a lot of significant differences. [4:34] But Project SAFIRE is what we call a permissive environment. [4:39] So there's no immediate threat, if you like, from local or enemy forces or air defense capability. [4:45] And any operation potentially targeting ISFAHAN would be absolutely under the planning assumption of a non-permissive environment. [4:53] That's military partners to determine how high the threat is or not. [4:56] So you have a hugely complicated factor, as you say, also of the enriched uranium being underground. [5:05] And then an added complexity of it potentially being buried underground. [5:09] And it's also supposed to be... [5:11] As a result of the bombing. [5:12] So there's no way in, no way out. [5:13] As a result of Operation Midnight Hammer. [5:16] So they're going to have to look at that. [5:18] And then one of three possible locations. [5:20] And we did hear HEGSEF, the Secretary of Defense yesterday at the hearings, actually said in those hearings that they do have eyes on those facilities 24-7. [5:31] Right. [5:32] And how would, I mean, how would you even start to consider that, an operation of that magnitude? [5:36] Military pilots, we call this a CONOP, a concept of operations. [5:39] And a CONOP basically concitely expresses what the JFC, the Joint Force Commander, intends to accomplish. [5:47] And how it will be done using all available assets to that Joint Force Commander. [5:52] Okay. [5:53] Well, let's get into this a little bit deeper and bring in our newest feature here on the Security Brief, the Intel Board. [6:01] So, as you can see, we've brought up the map. [6:04] And we're going to focus in greater depth, Mikey, on those areas of the country that will come into focus. [6:08] Yeah, so I want to take the viewers through where Isfahan is first. [6:13] Here's Isfahan. [6:14] It's about 450 kilometers east of the Iraqi border, the Iraqi border in red here that runs down into the Persian Gulf. [6:21] And it's also equidistant from the Iraqi border to Tehran. [6:24] So, again, about 450 kilometers south. [6:27] Now, if we can zoom in, this is now taking us into what's called the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. [6:36] What's important about this is it's one of three nuclear facilities that were actually targeted by the Iranians in Operation Midnight Hammer in 2025. [6:44] And if you remember, there were B-2 stealth bombers that launched all the way from the United States on a two-way mission to drop the massive ordnance penetrator, [6:53] that 30,000-pound bomb that could target facilities deep underground, not just at Isfahan, but at Fordow and Natanz. [7:01] And I think what's also important as well is that in order to facilitate that mission, so those B-2 bombers being able to get over the targets without any air defense threat, [7:10] there will have been surface-to-air missile systems around these facilities. [7:14] And when we zoom out, we can see the terrain that they would have to have been softened up in the first place by U.S. air strike assets before those B-2s came in. [7:23] Can we focus on an area of the map that we've talked about in a previous episode, where these two U.S. C-130s were destroyed on the ground by the U.S. forces? [7:35] Yeah, so if you can just stick a pin on the Isfahan nuclear facility, please. [7:41] Yeah, that distance is around 40 kilometers. You've got this huge ridgeline here. [7:45] This was an airstrip where two U.S. C-130s were landed, and the Pentagon say that they were there to facilitate the F-15E shootdown. [7:56] So basically, the weapons systems operator, the rear crew guy or girl. [7:59] So this is the runway. [8:00] Yeah, it was basically, it was under the guise of that rescue. [8:04] Now, this is the bomb damage assessment for the 2C-130s that actually were blown up. [8:11] Now, the U.S. say that the 2C-130s, when they landed there, they went into softened ground and they couldn't get out. [8:18] But when you listen to open source intelligence, there's a lot of chatter online which suggests that those 2C-130s, [8:23] for whatever reason they were there, were hit by incoming fire, and that's the reason they couldn't get out. [8:27] And therefore, the U.S. destroyed them, likely with airstrikes when you look at the video footage, [8:32] in order to prevent the IRGC getting their hands on any sensitive capability that they had. [8:37] So in military parlance, we'll come back to the map. [8:39] What would the concept of operations be? [8:43] What does the pre-assault operation on something like Isfahan look like? [8:47] Christian, can you just pin Isfahan nuclear facility here for me, please, on the map? [8:52] And then down here, which is where the airstrip is. [8:54] So as we said, that distance there is about 40 kilometers. [9:00] So what the U.S. strategic military planners will have been looking at is this whole entire area. [9:08] So yes, there's an airstrip down here. [9:10] Yes, it's proven. [9:12] However, they will be scouring that area. [9:15] Remember, Project Sapphire, Operation Sapphire, that was only 10 kilometers away from the airport [9:21] that they needed to get the fissile material out of. [9:24] This is 40 kilometers, and there's a huge ridgeline running all the way across here. [9:28] It's a very inhospitable terrain. [9:30] So the planners will be looking at likely airstrikes. [9:32] They will likely take helicopters in. [9:34] But also, they'll be looking at what's called an IPB. [9:37] If you just draw a box around this area for me. [9:41] They'll be scouring this whole area for opportunity. [9:45] This is called an IPB, Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace. [9:48] And there will be a number of individuals involved, from intelligence to operations to planning, force protection. [9:55] And what they'll be doing is they'll be scouring the whole area to look at likely infiltration or exploitation routes. [10:01] They'll be looking at potential air threats. [10:04] So we've talked about surface-to-air missile systems that would be taken out. [10:08] But there's also these manpads as well that we spoke about in terms of threat, the shoulder-launched missile. [10:12] They can pop up anywhere. [10:13] So this whole box will be an area of interest when determining any course of action. [10:19] And presumably, they'd have to soften that up just the same way as they softened up Isfaham during Midnight Hammer. [10:24] Yeah, 100%. [10:25] I mean, the Heli Assault Force, or however they decide to go in and secure, that will need a lot of pre-op work. [10:33] And that pre-op work will be likely through MQ-9 Reaper drones. [10:36] We know that there's been over 20 shot down over Iran. [10:39] But they're a critical asset when it comes to the imagery on all of this. [10:43] So they'll be scouring that area on what's called pattern of life. [10:47] Maybe the RQ-170, which is the stealth drone that we saw over Venezuela. [10:51] They'll be two key assets. [10:52] And what that imagery and intelligence will allow them to do is feed that back to the pre-strike packages that will come in. [10:59] And they'll neutralize anything that there might be a threat to the main effort. [11:02] And you talk about the Reapers, but quite obviously there are other strike assets out there. [11:06] Yeah, there are. [11:07] Likely F-15s. [11:08] We've seen a lot of coverage of those F-15s from Lake and Heath operating in theater. [11:13] They can go longer distances, and they've got a significantly heavier payload. [11:18] And they will be conducting the strikes on the intelligence that those drones that we were talking about had picked up through that intelligence. [11:25] The softening up. [11:25] Exactly, yeah. [11:27] Wouldn't just be F-15s. [11:29] It could be the F-18 Hornets off the carrier, which do a similar job, air to ground. [11:32] But also in conjunction off the carrier as well, using the F-18 Growlers. [11:36] They provide the suppression of enemy air defense. [11:40] An operation like this is not just about airstrikes. [11:42] It's about putting boots on the ground. [11:43] No, absolutely no way you can even go close to a mission like this without putting boots on the ground. [11:49] So the next bit that we'll talk about is what's called the infill, the infiltration. [11:53] And I don't think, it's highly likely it would be a C-5 like we saw in Project Sapphire. [11:57] It's the huge aircraft. [11:59] Likely to be either a C-17, which is significantly smaller, or a Charlie-130. [12:04] We saw the two that were in on the strip. [12:06] That's even smaller than the C-17. [12:08] But what the C-17 and the C-130s do, it's going back to that box where they're looking at options. [12:15] It gives them greater options when it comes to putting aircraft on the ground and the type of airstrips that they can actually use. [12:21] So not the biggest birds. [12:22] The slightly smaller ones operating in a sort of relay fashion, taking it out, is how you envisage it. [12:27] Yeah, so no, not taking it out. [12:29] Those aircraft would go in and they would put the boots on the ground. [12:32] Oh, I see. [12:33] So we're talking about 82nd Airborne. [12:36] They would likely be used for force protection. [12:39] So when Isfahan is secured. [12:41] And then you're going to have a mix of Navy SEALs, probably Delta Force, doing any heli assaults that are required. [12:46] So that initial objective of seizing Isfahan will be likely special forces and then force protection of 82nd Airborne that would come in. [12:54] So you just said once Isfahan is secured, what happens at that point? [12:58] So you're then going to need to bring in helicopter activity. [13:03] You're going to want to have air mobility of those forces on the ground. [13:06] And then obviously the other specialist equipment like bulldozers and rubble clearing machinery. [13:12] I mean, there will be intelligence that the U.S. have to show the state of Isfahan after Operation Midnight Hammer. [13:17] But they're going to have to go in and they're going to have to recce that. [13:21] Yeah, because I'm assuming that one of the secondary objectives here is not only to remove the enriched uranium. [13:27] It is also to destroy the centrifuges and the equipment that is within those tunnels. [13:33] Yeah. [13:33] And before that happens, the recce will need to take place. [13:36] It will need to identify the exact location of that 440 kilograms or if it's split up around three locations. [13:43] And then a combined assessment of how do you get to the enriched uranium? [13:46] That could take days, if not weeks, to try and figure that out with engineers and the nuclear emergency support team. [13:52] So that combination of work between those teams will be critical. [13:55] Now, coming to your point on the secondary objectives, centrifuges, they're absolutely critical to enriching uranium. [14:02] We know that Iran has thousands under there. [14:04] What we don't know is how many were destroyed by the strikes on Operation Midnight Hammer. [14:07] So if you're in military planning then, what would you assume is the extent of an operation like this? [14:13] How long are you going to have boots on the ground? [14:15] Yeah, I mean, we saw Project Sapphire was four weeks in a permissive environment. [14:21] In a non-permissive environment, we're looking at weeks, if not months. [14:27] This course of action is a completely whole other ballgame. [14:32] This course of action is a completely whole other ballgame.