Will the Mandelson saga impact Keir Starmer and Labour in the elections? — BBC Newscast

[0:00] Hello, it's Adam in the Newscast slash Electioncast studio. [0:04] And it's Alex in the makeshift home Electioncast studio. [0:07] And it's James in the lovely Newscast Glasgow studio. [0:11] And it's Felicity in the Cardiff newsroom. [0:14] Standing up in the middle of your office, [0:17] whereas we're all in our very bespoke studios. [0:21] Right, I've got one more Remoto voter for you all. [0:24] Mark says, hello, Newscast. [0:25] I'm not a current Remoto voter, but five years ago, [0:27] I was taken into hospital a week before the election [0:30] for emergency heart surgery. [0:32] It was planned surgery, but it kept getting delayed [0:34] because of COVID and the lack of intensive care beds. [0:37] The surgery was very long. [0:39] I ended up having a stroke and was unable to walk or speak. [0:42] I had no visitors because of COVID. [0:44] On the sixth day in intensive care, [0:45] I FaceTimed my husband and whispered, [0:47] get me a proxy vote. [0:49] Now, I lived in Sussex and had the surgery in London. [0:51] So it wasn't really a huge distance [0:53] that wins any tickets for Castfest as a remotest voter. [0:56] But the barriers were significant. [0:58] So well done, Mark, for your commitment to democracy [1:01] and hope you are feeling much better than you did five years ago. [1:06] Right, let's talk about the elections in Scotland, Wales and England. [1:11] Alex, the story we've all been covering as political journalists, [1:14] though, is Keir Starmer and the effect on his premiership [1:18] of the whole Mandelson story. [1:19] Do you think that is playing out on the campaign trail in the locals? [1:24] Yeah, I mean, totally, that is the massive dominant story in Westminster. [1:29] And it's always really hard to assess in any kind of like, [1:32] you know, scientific sense, [1:33] how much impact that will or won't have on the campaign trail. [1:35] But there's one person who certainly seems to think it's having an impact. [1:38] And that's the mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, [1:40] because he gave an interview to the FT [1:42] in which he said he thinks his party risks being, [1:45] in his word, stonked during these elections. [1:48] And he put that in large part down to what he called the omni-shambles [1:52] around this whole process of Peter Mandelson's appointment [1:56] and then everything we've seen since around the vesting process. [1:59] And his argument was that that makes it hard to talk about [2:04] on the doorstep with voters what he says are, in his view, [2:08] the good things that the Labour Party is doing. [2:10] And I think that probably is the kind of really salient point, [2:14] because you hear that from everybody. [2:16] You hear it from Labour MPs, you've heard it from ministers [2:18] who've said it on the airwaves, you know, [2:20] whatever their view is on what happened with Peter Mandelson, [2:23] and there are some really pretty strong views [2:25] around the way that that has all been dealt with. [2:27] The one thing they all totally agree on [2:29] is the fact that it is stopping them talking about other stuff, [2:34] you know, and if you remember right at the beginning of the year, [2:36] Keir Starmer was saying, [2:37] if there's a day where I'm not talking about the cost of living, [2:39] then it's a sort of, you know, day wasted [2:41] or a day when I don't want to be doing that. [2:42] And obviously what they are talking about constantly [2:44] is what's going on or what has been going on [2:47] with Peter Mandelson. [2:48] And I suspect from a sort of voting perspective, [2:51] again, whatever people think about what's happened [2:53] with Peter Mandelson, [2:54] however that might influence or shape their views, [2:57] there are other issues that they will have [2:59] at the top of their own agenda as well, [3:01] cost of living, NHS, public services, [3:03] all those things that we've talked about. [3:05] So I think, you know, as well as Labour MPs [3:08] and Keir Starmer and Cabinet Ministers recognising [3:11] that this has been a damaging episode, [3:13] what it has also been is massive distraction [3:16] from the issues that a lot of people really care about. [3:19] Oh, and Alex, that mention of Sadiq Khan, [3:21] the Mayor of London, is a useful reminder [3:23] that even though there are some mayors up for election [3:26] in England this time round, [3:27] it's not the Metro mayors or the Mayor of London [3:30] that's up for grabs. [3:32] No, that's right. [3:33] That's right. [3:33] So they're in a couple of years' time. [3:35] So they're not standing for election this time. [3:37] There's just a handful of other mayoralties that are up [3:40] as well as all the council elections [3:41] that are up in England. [3:42] But obviously you're going to get figures out [3:44] on the campaign trail like Sadiq Khan. [3:46] It's worth saying while I'm talking about [3:47] what Sadiq Khan said, [3:48] I should say that he also said in that interview [3:50] with the FT, [3:51] he didn't think Keir Starmer should go, [3:53] but he was like highly critical of the impact [3:56] all of this has had in his experience [3:58] and what he's finding out there on the doorstep. [4:00] But James, somebody who did say [4:01] that Keir Starmer should go [4:02] was Anna Sarwar, Labour's leader in Scotland. [4:04] And that sort of was designed to be [4:06] a bit of an insurance policy during this campaign. [4:09] Has the insurance policy paid out? [4:11] Well, that is obviously in the hands of the voters [4:14] in the end, [4:15] but I think I can answer it to a certain extent, Adam. [4:20] Is Sir Keir Starmer's very high unpopularity in polls [4:25] a drag on Scottish Labour's prospects in this election? [4:30] Yes, of course it is. [4:31] And we were talking about a party [4:32] that went from one seat to 39 [4:35] in the general election two years ago [4:37] while the Scottish National Party [4:39] fell from 48 seats to nine. [4:41] So there was clearly a huge swell [4:45] of, if not necessarily confidence in Sir Keir [4:49] as a prospective Prime Minister, [4:52] an opportunity for him to convince voters [4:57] that he could be a good Prime Minister. [4:58] There was clearly enough people in Scotland saying, [5:01] we will give you a shot. [5:03] Polls since then suggest [5:05] that people have been disappointed in him. [5:09] And has that been a drag on Anna Sarwar? [5:11] Yes. [5:12] Did Anna Sarwar take a significant risk [5:14] when he called for the Prime Minister to go? [5:17] Yes. [5:18] But one former Director of Communications [5:20] for the party, Alan Roden, [5:23] I heard him on Radio Scotland Breakfast [5:25] yesterday or the day before. [5:26] I thought he made quite a good point, Adam, [5:28] which is he was saying, [5:29] look, what Anna Sarwar has done here [5:32] is stop this campaign being, [5:34] just what you and Alex were talking about there, [5:36] being entirely focused [5:38] on the Prime Minister [5:40] and the state of the UK government. [5:42] Because, yes, he has asked about it, [5:45] Anna Sarwar, repeatedly by journalists, [5:47] but he doesn't dominate every single appearance. [5:49] He's not asked about it [5:50] from start to end of a news conference. [5:52] He was asked about it this morning [5:53] by my colleague Katie Hunter [5:55] interviewing him for BBC Breakfast. [5:57] And he said, [5:57] I stand by my call for, [5:59] I stand by what I said, [6:00] I don't recall from it. [6:01] The Mandelson scandal was the tipping point, [6:03] but that's not what this election is about. [6:05] And what this former Director of Communications [6:07] for the party in Scotland was saying [6:08] is that he has more space in the air war, [6:12] to use that, you know, [6:14] elect that in political term, [6:16] to get his message across [6:18] because he's not completely focused on that. [6:19] And he also has more space on the ground war [6:22] because when he knocks on a door [6:23] and someone says, [6:24] oh, come on, [6:24] I can't be bothered with that Prime Minister, [6:26] he can say, [6:27] I'm not saying he literally says these words, [6:28] but he can say, [6:28] yeah, well, neither can I, [6:30] and you know that. [6:31] But let's not talk about that. [6:32] Let's talk about the SNP. [6:33] So I think it has created some space for him, [6:36] but will it be enough space? [6:37] I mean, that's in the hands of the voters. [6:39] And Felicity, [6:40] how's that massive news story [6:41] been reflected in Wales? [6:42] Well, it's not dominating doorstep conversations [6:46] from what I hear, Adam. [6:48] I mean, we've talked previously, haven't we, [6:50] about how Labour here is labouring [6:52] under this burden of double incumbency. [6:54] They're trying to defend a 27-year record [6:56] in government at a Welsh level. [6:59] And also, Keir Starmer is very unpopular [7:02] at a UK level, [7:03] and he is also representing the Labour Party. [7:07] So, you know, [7:07] he's a bit of a ball and chain [7:08] around the ankle as well. [7:10] What one Labour source said, [7:12] quite interestingly, actually, [7:14] a few days ago, [7:15] was that Donald Trump is the name [7:17] that they're finding [7:19] getting brought up spontaneously the most. [7:22] Keir Starmer is getting mentioned. [7:25] A lot of people who mention him [7:26] don't particularly like him. [7:28] But this source was saying [7:29] he was getting a little bit of credit, [7:32] albeit maybe begrudgingly, [7:34] for the way he's handled Donald Trump [7:37] and the Iran war situation. [7:38] But the latest wave of criticism [7:41] over the Peter Mandelson affair [7:43] and the vetting situation [7:44] seems to have wiped out that credit [7:47] that he was previously getting, [7:49] that kind of Iran bump, if you like. [7:51] So it certainly hasn't done Labour any good here, [7:55] although it doesn't seem [7:56] to be dominating the conversation. [7:58] And, Felicity, [7:59] we were talking about intra-party tensions [8:01] between leaders with James [8:03] and with Keir Starmer and Nassarwar. [8:05] I hear that there's a bit of tension [8:07] amongst the Lib Dems [8:09] between Ed Davie and his Welsh counterpart. [8:12] Yes, that's right. [8:13] So Lib Dem social media [8:14] at the end of last week [8:16] showed that Ed Davie, [8:17] the UK Lib Dem leader, [8:18] had come to Cardiff [8:20] with the lead candidates [8:22] for those two constituencies there [8:24] to do a little bit of a visit, [8:26] you know, and all that sort of thing, [8:27] as often happens [8:28] during an election campaign. [8:29] The Welsh Lib Dem leader, [8:31] Jane Dodds, was not there. [8:33] And when asked about it, [8:34] she said, oh, she had other commitments [8:36] and the Ed Davie visit [8:37] had been sort of a last-minute arrangement. [8:40] But there isn't a great deal of love lost [8:43] between the two of them. [8:44] And when Jane Dodds was pressed on, [8:46] you know, how their relationship was, [8:48] she said, and I quote, [8:50] it's a private matter, [8:51] which is possibly not the thing [8:54] to say to a journalist [8:55] because journalists always want to know [8:56] what the private matters are, of course. [8:58] It looks as if all this is rooted [9:01] in something that happened [9:02] a few years back, [9:04] in that before she got into politics, [9:06] Jane Dodds was a social worker [9:08] and for a time she worked [9:09] for the church in England. [9:11] And a report came out a few years ago [9:13] that did criticise her handling [9:15] in a sex abuse scandal in the church. [9:18] At the time, Jane Dodds admitted [9:20] that there had been shortcomings. [9:22] Now, Ed Davie suggested at that time [9:25] that Jane Dodds should consider her role [9:29] as leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, [9:32] interpreted by most people, I think, [9:34] as a suggestion that she should think [9:35] about standing down. [9:37] Jane Dodds said she wasn't going to do that. [9:39] She was going to stay put [9:40] and stay put she has. [9:41] But it doesn't look as if the relationship [9:43] has recovered from that, really. [9:44] Right, then into kind of nitty-gritty politics. [9:47] Alex, I hear there's rumours, [9:50] not of tactical voting in one area of Hampshire, [9:52] but, like, tactical candidates. [9:55] Yeah, so there's loads about this story [9:56] on the BBC News website, [9:57] so you can read the whole thing on there, [9:58] but I'll give you the kind of shortened version. [10:00] And it is the case that in Haven't, [10:02] if you're going to vote in some of the wards in Haven't [10:04] that are up for election this year, [10:06] the choice on the ballot paper [10:08] is between Reform UK, Conservatives, [10:10] and then one of Labour, Liberal Democrats or Greens. [10:14] So the accusation, as Emily reports it, [10:17] from the Conservatives and Reform [10:18] is that the Labour, the Liberal Democrats [10:20] and the Greens, who are currently in a rainbow coalition [10:23] running Haven't Council, [10:25] have sort of decided not to pit against each other [10:27] in this election campaign. [10:29] Now, the parties that she's spoken to say, [10:31] hang on, no, that's not the case, actually. [10:33] This is about the fact that we couldn't necessarily [10:34] get enough candidates on the ballot paper. [10:36] This isn't some sort of deal that we've struck. [10:38] But that is the claim from the other parties standing there. [10:42] And it just sort of brought to mind for me, [10:44] do you remember, Adam, [10:44] back before the 2017 general election, [10:46] when there was all that talk about the notion [10:48] of a progressive alliance [10:49] and are parties going to kind of stand aside [10:52] for each other [10:53] so that they're not competing against each other [10:55] in the hope of blocking the kind of opposition. [10:58] And obviously, when you speak to parties [11:00] at a national level, [11:01] they never say they're doing that. [11:04] There's nothing kind of formalised about that. [11:07] You know, it's very rare that you get [11:08] that kind of like open pact [11:10] about pre-election progressive alliances [11:12] or alliances of any description, [11:14] because parties are obviously mostly out [11:15] for all the votes they can get [11:16] for their own party. [11:18] But it's a fascinating little insight [11:20] into what is happening [11:21] in that little corner of Hampshire. [11:23] And James, OK, it's not about [11:24] non-aggression pacts during the campaign, [11:27] but the nature and the structure [11:28] of Scottish politics means [11:29] that which party might work [11:31] with which other parties after the election [11:33] is actually a quite regular feature. [11:36] Yeah, that's right, Adam. [11:37] And it is always, I suppose, [11:39] worth pausing as you suggest [11:41] and remembering that Holyrood [11:43] has an element of proportional representation. [11:46] And that means attaining a majority [11:48] is extremely difficult, [11:49] pretty much by design. [11:51] The whole concept of devolution [11:52] as far back as its founding in 1999 [11:55] was the idea of making [11:56] a more collegiate politics. [11:59] As we've said before, [12:00] our election cast people, [12:02] election casters, if you will, [12:03] can decide for themselves [12:04] whether or not that's happened. [12:06] But that is the background. [12:07] And within that, [12:08] we've had arguments about [12:10] whether Anas Sarwar [12:12] would be able to form [12:14] what would effectively be a block [12:16] of pro-union MSPs. [12:18] Because as we know, [12:20] in Scotland, [12:21] politics very often comes [12:22] to this dividing line [12:23] along the constitution [12:24] with pro-independence, [12:25] SNP and the Greens on one hand [12:27] and pro-union parties on the other. [12:29] Despite a lot of people [12:30] not being happy with that, [12:31] it often happens. [12:32] So the question is, [12:33] can Anas Sarwar [12:34] become first minister [12:36] with enough votes [12:37] from other parties [12:38] who support the union? [12:39] And would that include [12:40] Reform UK? [12:42] Would he take Reform UK votes [12:44] to become first minister? [12:46] I mean, you don't get to choose [12:47] who votes for you [12:48] if you're nominated [12:49] and then whoever votes for you [12:51] votes for you. [12:52] There is definitely a question about [12:53] A, arithmetically, [12:55] was one poll suggested [12:57] that might be a possibility [12:59] that there could be [13:00] a pro-union majority in parliament. [13:02] No one is talking, [13:04] least of all in As Sarwar, [13:05] about the idea of any sort of [13:06] formal coalition at all [13:08] with reform. [13:09] He says there would be [13:09] absolutely no deals [13:10] with a row about this [13:11] because, you know, [13:12] Malcolm Offord, [13:12] the leader of reform in Scotland [13:14] had said, [13:15] oh, you said to me [13:15] you wanted to work together [13:16] and had to get rid of the SNP [13:18] and he'd said that's not true [13:19] and they just basically [13:20] are accusing each other of lying. [13:21] But the question is, [13:22] could he get the votes? [13:24] But then even if he could [13:25] get the votes, [13:25] there is a further question, [13:26] which is how stable [13:28] would such a minority government be? [13:31] Because the Labour Party [13:32] and Reform UK [13:33] and the Conservatives [13:34] don't really agree [13:35] on a great deal. [13:36] So is that even a feasible position? [13:39] And then the other question [13:40] that's arisen this week [13:41] is could the leader [13:43] of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, [13:44] Alex Cole, [13:45] Hamilton be the kingmaker [13:47] in the parliament? [13:49] And he was asked, [13:50] would he support [13:51] and ask Sarwar [13:52] as a Labour first minister? [13:55] And he effectively indicated [13:57] that pretty much [13:57] he probably would. [13:58] and asked by my colleague [14:00] Laura McKeever [14:01] on Radio Scotland Breakfast, [14:03] would you support Malcolm Offord? [14:04] No. [14:05] Would you support Russell Findlay? [14:07] No. [14:07] So clear that if the Lib Dems [14:08] are leaning in any direction, [14:10] it would be towards [14:11] the Labour Party. [14:13] There have been, [14:14] let's not forget, [14:15] the first two terms of Holyrood [14:16] from 1999 onwards, [14:18] there were Labour-Liberal Democrat [14:20] coalitions [14:21] before the SNP [14:21] swept everything before them [14:23] from 2007 onwards. [14:25] I say swept everything before them, [14:26] they won by one vote that year. [14:28] Well, by one seat that year [14:29] is a majority of one. [14:30] But still, [14:31] the point being, [14:32] it has happened in the past. [14:34] Could it happen again [14:35] in the future [14:36] at this election? [14:37] Maybe. [14:38] Although it has to be said, [14:39] even though the SNP's [14:40] vote share, [14:41] according to the polls, [14:42] has dropped considerably [14:43] since the last election, [14:44] the polls also suggest [14:46] that they are on track [14:47] for being in the strongest position. [14:50] But as I say again, [14:51] it's up to the voters. [14:52] Also, James, [14:52] thinking back to the ancient history [14:54] of the Scottish Parliament [14:54] of the 2000s, [14:56] is a reminder [14:57] that actually Scotland [14:58] went through a lot [14:59] of first ministers [15:00] in that period. [15:01] And actually, [15:02] it was the Alex Salmond, [15:03] Nicola Sturgeon [15:04] long period of stability [15:05] that was actually [15:06] kind of the outlier, [15:07] wasn't it? [15:09] Yeah, that's right. [15:09] I mean, Donald Dewar died [15:11] after a very relatively [15:13] short period in office [15:15] as the first first minister [15:17] to the distress, [15:18] I think, [15:19] in fairness of everybody. [15:20] a great tragedy [15:22] for a man [15:23] who'd spent [15:24] most of his political life, [15:26] most of his life [15:26] campaigning for the parliament [15:28] to be established, [15:29] regarded as the father [15:30] of devolution. [15:32] Henry MacLeish [15:33] resigned over a scandal. [15:35] Jack McConnell [15:35] was then defeated [15:36] at the ballot box. [15:38] So, yes, [15:38] they had two terms [15:41] between those three [15:42] first ministers, [15:43] but then [15:44] there was a period [15:45] of stability, [15:46] Alex Salmond [15:47] and then Nicola Sturgeon [15:48] and then, in fairness, [15:48] the SNP fairly rattled [15:50] through in the last [15:52] couple of years as well [15:53] because you've got [15:53] Nicola Sturgeon [15:54] and then Hamza Youssef [15:55] very briefly [15:56] and now John Swinney [15:58] trying to settle things down [16:00] and calm things down. [16:01] And then, Felicity, [16:02] the issue of tactical voting [16:06] actually has been raised [16:07] directly by Ellen Ed Morrigan [16:09] in a video that she's posted [16:10] on Instagram [16:11] that you just sent us. [16:12] Yes, that's absolutely right. [16:14] I mean, [16:14] we have a new voting system [16:16] here in Wales, of course, [16:17] and there are big question marks [16:19] over the extent [16:19] to which it makes [16:20] tactical voting relevant [16:22] because the idea is [16:23] that it's supposed [16:24] to be more proportional [16:25] than the old system. [16:27] But having said that, [16:27] it's not totally proportional. [16:30] It favours bigger parties [16:31] and you probably need [16:33] to get around about 12% [16:34] or above in any constituency [16:36] to start winning seats. [16:38] The other interesting thing [16:41] about it [16:41] and the thing [16:42] that makes it very difficult, [16:43] you know, [16:43] when the polls come out, [16:44] they come out with vote share, [16:45] they also come out [16:46] with seat projections. [16:47] The vote share, [16:48] very interesting, [16:49] the seat projections [16:50] you have to take [16:50] with a huge pinch of salt [16:52] because the fifth [16:54] and certainly sixth seats [16:55] in a lot of these constituencies [16:57] could be decided [16:58] by a whisker [16:59] and therefore make seat projections [17:01] very, very difficult [17:03] to make with any sort [17:04] of accuracy at the moment. [17:06] Now, what Ellen Ed Morgan [17:07] has done in her constituency [17:08] in West Wales [17:09] is try to explain [17:11] all of this [17:12] with a row [17:14] of tinned [17:15] or canned cocktails, [17:17] all of them still unopened [17:18] from what I can tell. [17:20] And she's a strawberry daiquiri, [17:22] by the way, [17:22] in case you were wondering. [17:24] I think from memory, [17:25] the greens are a pina colada, [17:27] Plaid, I think, [17:28] Plaid Cymru [17:29] are a mojito. [17:30] It's making me thirsty. [17:31] Yeah, I know, [17:32] not quite sure [17:33] about what the other ones are, [17:34] but her message [17:36] appears to be [17:38] that she's saying [17:39] Plaid are a shoo-in [17:40] in this constituency. [17:42] She says she thinks [17:43] they're going to get [17:43] two seats [17:44] and possibly three. [17:46] And she seems [17:47] to be saying [17:48] to the voters, [17:49] look, [17:49] my best hope [17:50] of maintaining my seat [17:52] is to come in [17:53] in that sixth seat. [17:55] And if that's the case, [17:56] I mean, [17:56] it just shows [17:57] really the way [17:59] that Labour [18:00] has apparently slid [18:02] in the polls [18:02] since the last [18:03] Senate election [18:04] back in 2021. [18:06] And she's basically [18:07] saying to people, [18:08] look, [18:08] you need to get out [18:09] and make sure [18:09] you vote for me [18:10] to make sure [18:11] that I'm the person, [18:12] I'm the strawberry daiquiri [18:13] who gets that sixth seat. [18:15] So, you know, [18:16] this could be tactical. [18:18] This could be simply [18:19] a message [18:20] to try to persuade [18:21] the voters out. [18:22] You know, [18:22] it's a well-worn [18:23] political device, [18:25] isn't it, [18:26] during election campaigns? [18:27] You tell your troops [18:28] we're in danger here [18:29] and they dig in harder [18:31] and they get out [18:32] and they vote. [18:33] It could be that. [18:34] On the other hand, [18:35] it could be [18:35] that she can see [18:36] which way the wind [18:37] is blowing. [18:38] We've had a flurry [18:39] of polls this week, [18:41] Adam, [18:41] all of them slightly different. [18:43] One of them [18:43] putting Plaid and Reform [18:44] literally neck and neck [18:46] in terms of [18:47] who's going to be [18:48] largest party [18:49] after the election. [18:50] But the broad trend [18:52] for all of them [18:53] is the same [18:54] as it has been, [18:55] which is Plaid Cymru [18:57] and Reform [18:57] duking it out [18:58] for top spot [18:59] with Labour [19:00] probably coming third [19:02] and for most of them, [19:04] not all of them, [19:04] but for most of them, [19:05] Labour quite a distant third. [19:07] So if that's the case, [19:09] I mean, [19:09] it does show [19:10] what Ilan Ed Morgan [19:11] is facing [19:12] in terms of the uphill struggle [19:13] and by the looks of it, [19:14] she thinks even [19:14] in her own seat. [19:16] Oh, Felicity, [19:17] that talk of strawberry daiquiris [19:18] though has reminded me [19:19] of university [19:19] when we'd go [19:20] to this cocktail bar [19:21] called the Duke of Cambridge [19:22] where they do [19:23] two-for-one cocktails [19:24] and I'd always get [19:26] a strawberry daiquiris [19:27] and I think [19:28] some nights [19:28] I'd drink like [19:29] ten strawberry daiquiris [19:30] and I've never had one since. [19:32] So I haven't had a strawberry daiquiris [19:33] for about 20 years. [19:34] I know, [19:34] I'm the same with cider. [19:35] So I wasn't as sophisticated [19:36] as you, Adam. [19:37] I wasn't going for the cocktails [19:38] but I can't look at cider anymore. [19:39] You just didn't have [19:40] such good offers available. [19:42] Also, James, [19:43] in that video [19:43] that Ilan Ed Morgan posted, [19:45] the Liberal Democrats [19:46] are represented [19:46] by a tin of [19:48] Iron Brew Martini. [19:50] Can you conceive [19:50] of such a thing? [19:52] Sorry, what? [19:53] Iron Brew Martini. [19:56] I've never heard of such a thing [19:57] but I do empathise strongly [19:59] with the cider situation. [20:02] Yeah, definitely cider [20:03] and also peach schnapps. [20:04] These are the two [20:05] that I can't go back to really. [20:08] Alex, [20:09] what was exciting you [20:09] about that conversation? [20:10] The tactical voting, [20:11] the prospects for the results [20:13] in Ilan Ed Morgan's constituency [20:14] or the cocktail chat? [20:15] It's a lot of cocktails [20:16] to be honest, Adam. [20:17] Well, I mean, [20:18] it hasn't put me off. [20:19] We're recording this [20:20] nearly past 5pm. [20:21] Right, [20:22] that's enough. [20:23] Kind of strategic [20:24] and tactical voting chat. [20:26] What about actual issues? [20:28] Alex, [20:29] I know there's one [20:30] in particular [20:30] you would like to highlight. [20:32] Yeah, [20:33] well, I mean, [20:33] look, [20:33] I think, [20:34] so I've been out [20:35] on about a fair bit [20:36] this week. [20:36] Actually, [20:36] I've been in Wales [20:37] and in England [20:37] just talking to people [20:39] and we've talked [20:40] about it before [20:41] but when you go out [20:42] and you ask [20:43] the really open question [20:44] to people on the streets [20:46] or in the high streets [20:47] or wherever else you are, [20:48] you know, [20:48] what are the things [20:49] you really care about? [20:50] It is overwhelming [20:51] what comes out top [20:53] and it is public services. [20:55] So it is the NHS, [20:56] it is the economy, [20:57] it is the cost of living, [20:59] it is things like high streets, [21:00] it is things like roads. [21:02] And so I've been checking in [21:04] with all of our brilliant colleagues [21:06] across England [21:07] who are covering these elections [21:09] for BBC Local Radio [21:10] and regions [21:11] and local and regional TV [21:12] and they are so in tune [21:15] with what's happening [21:15] on the ground [21:16] and they've been providing [21:17] these really valuable insights [21:18] and the one thing [21:19] that totally unsurprising to me [21:21] keeps coming up [21:21] time and time again [21:22] is potholes [21:23] because, you know, [21:25] I've just got this theory [21:26] that sometimes these issues [21:28] can be dismissed [21:30] by some people, [21:32] perhaps in Westminster, [21:33] who think that they are [21:34] very kind of localised [21:35] but I just think [21:37] these are the things, [21:38] these day-to-day frustrations [21:40] that people have [21:40] in their local communities, [21:42] whether it's the high street [21:42] or the state of the roads [21:43] and potholes, [21:44] that they kind of shape [21:46] how people feel [21:46] about whether the country [21:47] is or isn't working to them [21:48] and therefore that shapes [21:50] their politics [21:51] and their political views. [21:52] So that is kind of [21:53] topping the list [21:54] along with those other [21:55] things to do with [21:57] the immediate community, [21:58] the state of public services [21:59] and broadly speaking, [22:00] I think it all comes down [22:01] to how people feel [22:03] things are going, [22:05] you know, [22:05] in their pockets, [22:06] in their wallets, [22:07] in their local communities, [22:08] in their towns, [22:09] the high streets, [22:09] housing, roads [22:10] and public services. [22:13] Absolutely. [22:13] As a political journalist, [22:14] can I just defend our class [22:16] from the pothole allegation? [22:18] And I've thought about this a lot [22:20] because potholes [22:22] is one of those stories [22:23] where the problem [22:24] and the solution [22:25] is just the same [22:26] every year [22:27] and every campaign, [22:28] which is people say, [22:29] oh, potholes are really bad, [22:31] they're getting worse [22:32] or they get repaired [22:33] and the repairs don't hold. [22:34] And then central government says, [22:35] here's more money [22:36] for local authorities [22:37] to fix potholes. [22:38] And it's just that [22:39] on an endless cycle [22:40] and things that are just [22:41] staying the same [22:42] all the time [22:43] aren't really news, [22:44] even though they can be [22:45] real irritants [22:46] in people's lives [22:47] on quite a big scale. [22:48] Yeah, but then I guess [22:49] the answer to that [22:50] is has the problem [22:51] ever really been solved? [22:52] Obviously, [22:53] because of the state of the roads [22:54] and I would just say [22:56] that it does, [22:56] there are sort of [22:57] different layers to it. [22:58] So you can look at [22:58] the amount of council funding [22:59] that has been over periods of years [23:01] and the impact that that has had [23:02] on road maintenance and repair. [23:04] And then if you really want [23:05] to get into this, [23:06] I did a whole documentary. [23:06] And about how actually [23:09] when you get road repairs, [23:11] so you have temporary road works [23:13] for things like maybe utilities [23:14] that need to be fixed [23:15] and then the quality [23:16] of the road repairs, [23:17] which then can have an impact [23:19] on things like the road surface [23:21] beyond that [23:22] and potholes. [23:24] So I would add, [23:26] sorry, [23:26] I would add, [23:27] Alex and Adam, [23:28] one thing to that [23:30] from the perspective of here. [23:32] I totally agree with you, Alex, [23:34] that there's a sort of [23:36] vague idea of discontent [23:39] generated by very irritating, [23:43] but in some respects, [23:44] minor inconveniences [23:46] such as potholes, [23:47] which, by the way, [23:47] are not really minor inconvenience [23:49] if you have to get a tyre replaced. [23:51] It might cost you a lot of money. [23:52] And indeed, [23:53] the guy in my local garage [23:54] where I get my tyres done [23:55] was saying he has made [23:57] massively more money [23:59] since COVID [24:00] because the roads [24:01] are in an obviously worse state [24:04] and that their profits [24:04] have risen very substantially [24:06] because the number of tyre repairs [24:07] have jumped because of potholes. [24:09] At the same time, [24:10] there's a lot of politicians, [24:12] I think, [24:12] talk a lot, [24:13] some politicians, [24:14] not all, [24:14] but some politicians [24:15] talk a lot about [24:16] train travel [24:18] or bus travel [24:19] and because, [24:20] you know, [24:21] talking about putting into place [24:22] measures to bring down the cost. [24:24] And I think sometimes [24:26] a lot of drivers feel [24:27] that they are forgotten about. [24:29] In Glasgow, for example, [24:30] and this is not a local authority, [24:31] issue, [24:32] this is a wider issue, [24:33] there have been roadworks [24:34] on the main motorway [24:35] through Glasgow, [24:36] the M8, [24:37] for nearly five years [24:39] in the same place. [24:40] And there's this huge, [24:41] I won't get into the whole row, [24:42] but there's a huge row [24:43] about what is going on [24:44] and whether this bridge, [24:45] it's about a bridge, [24:46] whether it can be fixed or not, [24:47] whether the entire motorway [24:48] might have to be diverted. [24:50] But it not only [24:51] does it annoy people [24:52] because they sit in traffic [24:53] day in, day out fuming, [24:54] I mean, [24:55] I am slightly speaking [24:56] from a personal perspective, [24:58] but also it is [25:00] a productivity issue [25:01] as well. [25:01] It's an issue, [25:02] you know, [25:02] it ripples out [25:03] into the economy, [25:04] that sort of thing. [25:05] So it has all sorts [25:06] of different impacts, [25:07] these things that seem [25:08] maybe little to begin with. [25:10] Felicity, [25:10] I feel like I'm hosting [25:11] a phone-in on local radio now. [25:12] Is there anything you'd like to... [25:13] And we've got Felicity in Cardiff. [25:15] What would you like [25:15] to complain about? [25:16] Well, I'd just like [25:17] to chip in on this [25:18] because, interestingly, [25:20] potholes is something [25:21] that Eleonard Morgan, [25:22] the Welsh Labour leader, [25:22] does talk about a lot. [25:25] And she has this figure, [25:26] which I can't remember [25:27] off the top of my head, [25:28] and she quotes this figure [25:30] for how many potholes [25:31] have been filled in [25:32] thanks to Welsh Government funding [25:34] and all of that. [25:35] And the pothole issue, [25:36] it's very inconvenient for drivers [25:37] and for cyclists, [25:38] dangerous for cyclists, [25:39] of course, [25:39] but not just that. [25:40] I feel that for a lot of people, [25:42] when you go out and talk to them, [25:43] they feel it's emblematic [25:45] of what they see [25:45] as a bit of an almost disintegration [25:48] of the quality [25:49] of the public realm, really, [25:50] and that it's almost emblematic [25:51] of what they feel [25:52] might be happening, [25:53] say, with other arguably [25:55] more important public services, [25:57] that this is something [25:58] that you can see and feel [25:59] on a daily basis [26:00] that just reminds you [26:01] that things are not [26:02] how they should be. [26:04] And just on the point [26:05] about issues around roads [26:07] and drivers and whatnot [26:08] being something [26:09] that really activates people, [26:10] of course, in Wales, [26:11] we have this default [26:12] 20-mile-an-hour speed limit. [26:14] And that is something [26:15] that's been fiercely controversial [26:16] and fiercely contested, [26:18] you know, [26:19] and is still something [26:20] that reform [26:21] and the Welsh Conservatives [26:22] refer to again [26:23] and again and again [26:24] in this campaign [26:25] and say that they would [26:26] get rid of. [26:28] On the other hand, [26:29] you have claims [26:30] from other parties, [26:31] obviously Labour, [26:32] Plaid Cymru, [26:33] the Liberal Democrats [26:34] and the Greens, [26:35] who say that it's been [26:35] an important measure [26:36] for road safety [26:37] and so on. [26:38] But, you know, [26:39] that just shows [26:39] how these issues [26:40] can become totemic, really, [26:42] and are almost something [26:43] behind which [26:44] some of the deeper issues [26:45] almost stack up [26:46] or, in the case [26:46] of the pothole, [26:47] fall in. [26:48] Very good. [26:49] The election cast elves [26:50] say that the Welsh government [26:51] say that 200,000 potholes [26:53] have either been fixed [26:53] or prevented [26:54] by their action. [26:55] There is an issue [26:56] with that statistic, [26:58] as I recall, [26:59] in that there is [26:59] a question mark [27:00] over exactly the accuracy [27:02] of that statistic [27:03] and it is disputed. [27:05] But, yes, [27:06] they do claim [27:07] that they have filled [27:08] in that many potholes [27:09] for sure [27:09] or at least paid [27:10] for them to be filled in. [27:11] I don't think [27:11] they've personally [27:12] been out there [27:12] with the shovels. [27:13] And how do you [27:13] prevent a pothole? [27:16] I don't know. [27:17] Because they are including [27:18] pothole prevention in there. [27:20] Yeah, I don't know. [27:20] The potholes [27:21] that didn't happen. [27:23] Right. [27:23] Also, Felicity, [27:25] talking about public services [27:26] in Wales, [27:27] was there some stats [27:28] this week [27:28] about NHS targets [27:31] being missed? [27:32] Yes, that's right. [27:33] So health is one [27:34] of the biggest issues [27:35] in this election campaign. [27:36] Cost of living, [27:37] of course, [27:37] on everyone's minds. [27:38] But health is also [27:39] an issue that I'm told [27:40] is coming up [27:41] on the doorstep [27:41] again and again and again. [27:43] And it's particularly [27:44] a big issue [27:44] in North Wales [27:45] where the health board [27:46] there has some [27:47] of the worst waiting times [27:49] in Wales. [27:50] And, of course, [27:51] the Wales-wide performance [27:52] of the NHS [27:53] is something [27:54] which has been [27:54] criticised for some time. [27:56] Now, the Welsh government [27:57] said that they wanted [27:59] to get the overall [28:00] waiting lists [28:01] down to 600,000 [28:03] by the spring. [28:04] And they also said [28:05] that they wanted [28:06] to eradicate [28:07] two-year waits. [28:08] Now, two-year waits [28:09] are virtually eradicated [28:10] already in England, [28:12] I believe, [28:12] but you'll know [28:13] the details on that. [28:15] But the latest [28:16] provisional figures [28:17] have come out for March. [28:18] I've written them down here [28:19] because I know [28:20] I wouldn't be able [28:20] to remember them. [28:21] But what they show [28:22] is that there were [28:23] around 666,700 people [28:27] waiting. [28:27] So the Welsh Labour government [28:29] has missed that target [28:31] and 2,600 waiting [28:34] more than two years. [28:36] So they have failed [28:37] to hit those two targets [28:39] in this final set of figures, [28:42] really, [28:42] before people go [28:43] to the polls. [28:44] Although, having said that, [28:46] total numbers waiting [28:47] for treatment [28:47] now stand at their lowest [28:49] since December 2021. [28:51] So, you know, [28:52] Welsh Labour say [28:53] that's a sign of progress. [28:54] The other parties [28:55] say it simply [28:56] isn't good enough [28:56] and that they have policies [28:58] that would get to grips [28:59] with this issue. [29:00] And, James, [29:01] the NHS waiting lists [29:02] have been a feature [29:03] of every leader's debate [29:04] in Scotland as well [29:05] the last couple of weeks, [29:06] haven't they? [29:06] Yeah. [29:07] The same that Felicity's [29:09] talking about in Wales [29:10] applies in Scotland. [29:11] It tends to be in the polling [29:13] cost of living [29:13] is the number one issue [29:14] and NHS is the next one [29:17] below that. [29:18] It's difficult [29:19] and we have a piece [29:21] on the BBC website [29:21] about this [29:22] trying to say [29:24] can you compare [29:25] the NHS in Scotland [29:26] with the rest of the UK [29:26] because some politicians [29:27] like to do that [29:28] and the short answer [29:28] is in lots of metrics [29:30] it's quite difficult. [29:31] But Public Health Scotland [29:33] estimate that [29:33] one in ten [29:34] of Scotland's population [29:35] was on at least [29:36] one new [29:37] outpatient, inpatient [29:39] or day case waiting list [29:40] as of a few months [29:42] a couple of months ago [29:43] and then one area [29:45] that you can [29:45] largely compare [29:47] across the UK [29:48] is A&E waiting times [29:49] and the overall trend [29:52] shows that all four [29:53] nations in the UK [29:54] have consistently [29:55] missed their targets [29:56] since the COVID pandemic. [29:58] Scotland's performed [29:58] slightly better [29:59] than England and Wales [30:01] but it's still below [30:02] its target [30:03] and in the campaign [30:04] to come to your [30:05] question Adam [30:06] yeah, there's been [30:08] a lot of talk [30:09] in various hustings [30:10] and debates [30:11] and so on about this [30:12] a lot of talk [30:13] focusing on GP services [30:15] just a quick rattle [30:17] very quickly [30:18] rattled around the houses [30:19] SNP say they're [30:21] expanding NHS [30:21] walk-in centre [30:22] pilots [30:23] and they're bringing down [30:24] waiting times as well [30:25] Labour's campaign [30:26] very heavily [30:27] on one super hospital [30:29] in Glasgow [30:29] the Queen Elizabeth [30:30] University Hospital [30:31] where there have been [30:32] some deaths [30:33] of related to [30:35] or said to be [30:36] related to infections [30:37] and there's been [30:39] campaigning on that [30:39] but they're also [30:40] promising to end [30:41] the rush for an [30:41] 8am GP appointment [30:43] with a new GP contract [30:44] and the Conservatives [30:46] also saying they would [30:47] have a 48 hour guarantee [30:48] for a GP appointment [30:50] the Le Dems have talked [30:51] about that issue [30:52] for a long time as well [30:53] and they're also saying [30:54] that they would reduce [30:54] what's called [30:55] delayed discharge [30:56] they would have it [30:56] by the end of the decade [30:57] as people who should [30:59] be released [30:59] but there's nowhere [31:00] to release them [31:01] from hospital into [31:02] because of social care [31:03] and other failings [31:04] the Greens say [31:05] they would defend [31:05] the health service [31:06] that's free [31:07] at the point of need [31:08] and they would invest [31:09] in general practice too [31:10] but what I think [31:11] is striking [31:12] is to zoom right [31:13] back out again Adam [31:14] is that all of the parties [31:16] including Reform UK [31:18] insist that the [31:19] National Health Service [31:20] will remain free [31:21] at the point of need [31:22] and be fully funded [31:23] by general taxation [31:24] and that's interesting [31:26] when it comes to reform [31:27] because Nigel Farage [31:28] the UK leader of reform [31:29] has talked in the past [31:30] about the possibility [31:31] of the UK moving [31:33] to some sort of [31:34] European style [31:35] private medical insurance [31:37] model [31:37] or at least partly [31:38] that sort of model [31:39] and also it's interesting [31:41] because if you talk [31:42] to anybody [31:43] in the health service [31:44] in Scotland [31:45] almost anybody at all [31:47] they will tell you [31:48] that the service needs [31:49] dramatic and fundamental [31:50] reform [31:51] and is effectively [31:52] not working [31:53] and that there is [31:54] a de facto [31:54] two-tier health service [31:56] because if people [31:57] can afford to go private [31:58] for treatment [31:58] in some areas [32:00] they are doing so [32:01] and others just have to [32:03] languish on these waiting lists [32:04] so has any politician [32:07] in Scotland [32:08] got to grip [32:09] I'm not saying [32:10] that the answer [32:10] is privatisation [32:11] just to be clear [32:11] it's not for me [32:12] to say that at all [32:13] but I'm just saying [32:13] it's striking [32:14] that even a party [32:15] that seems to be [32:17] far more free market [32:19] than any of the others [32:20] in reform UK [32:21] and to a certain extent [32:22] the Conservatives [32:22] are not proposing [32:24] that model [32:24] that everyone is [32:25] sticking with this idea [32:27] that someone once said [32:29] was it Nigel Lawson [32:30] the NHS is the closest thing [32:32] that the British have [32:32] to a national religion [32:33] and so it seems [32:35] to be playing out again [32:36] in this election campaign [32:37] and James [32:38] I had a bit of a eureka moment [32:40] although it's kind of [32:40] embarrassing eureka moment [32:41] when I was doing a thing [32:43] for the BBC News [32:44] streaming service [32:45] the other day there [32:45] which was a sort of [32:46] scene setter for the elections [32:47] which was on the day [32:48] of the deadline [32:49] for people to register [32:50] to vote [32:50] and Professor Sir John Curtis [32:52] legendary [32:53] number cruncher [32:54] was on [32:55] and he said [32:55] oh there's a very real prospect [32:57] that we will have [32:58] nationalists [32:59] parties in government [33:01] in Scotland [33:02] Wales [33:02] and Northern Ireland [33:03] for the first time ever [33:04] and I suppose [33:05] that's kind of [33:06] that's obvious [33:07] that that could be [33:08] one of the outcomes [33:08] but it was just [33:09] interesting hearing it [33:10] just laid out [33:11] like that [33:11] by Sir John [33:12] because I hadn't [33:13] quite joined all the dots [33:14] what do we think [33:16] the consequences [33:18] of that might be [33:19] for our politics [33:21] well [33:22] it's such a good question [33:24] and it would be [33:25] as you say [33:25] like a fresh [33:27] new [33:28] and very striking [33:29] dynamic [33:30] for a country [33:31] that is arguably [33:32] being pulled [33:33] in different directions [33:34] by different strands [33:36] of nationalisms [33:37] and don't forget [33:38] you know [33:38] I would argue [33:40] that Reform UK [33:41] if not inherently [33:43] being an English [33:44] nationalist party [33:45] and the fact [33:46] that it's polling [33:46] well in Wales [33:47] and Scotland [33:48] suggests that [33:48] it's at least [33:49] something more than that [33:50] certainly it has [33:51] its roots [33:52] in traditions [33:53] of English nationalism [33:54] and possibly [33:54] British nationalism [33:55] as well [33:56] so you've got [33:56] all these [33:57] different nationalisms [33:58] and John Swinney [34:00] has been asked [34:00] about that [34:02] this week [34:02] about you know [34:03] would you work [34:03] with Plaid Cymru [34:04] which they've said [34:04] before [34:05] and the SNP [34:05] and Plaid Cymru [34:06] have sort of [34:06] long-standing [34:07] if not [34:08] desperately formal [34:09] but long-standing links [34:11] long-standing links [34:12] they always address [34:13] one another's conferences [34:14] for example [34:14] but would you also [34:15] work with Sinn Féin [34:16] and historically [34:17] the SNP's [34:18] been very wary [34:19] for obvious reasons [34:20] of drawing comparisons [34:21] between the Irish [34:22] nationalist movement [34:23] and the Scottish [34:24] nationalist movement [34:25] but he said [34:26] he would [34:26] effectively [34:28] he said [34:29] he would enjoy [34:30] the cooperation [34:30] of both Plaid Cymru [34:31] in Wales [34:32] and Sinn Féin [34:33] in Northern Ireland [34:34] and the Conservatives [34:36] have responded [34:36] to that by saying [34:37] look this is a [34:38] wake-up call [34:39] for people [34:40] about the potential [34:41] as he puts it [34:41] threat to the union [34:42] and also [34:43] for reform [34:45] very very strong words [34:47] from one of their [34:48] senior figures in Scotland [34:49] Thomas Kerr [34:49] saying that the SNP [34:51] were seeking [34:51] a cooperation agreement [34:52] with what he described [34:54] as a terrorist [34:54] sympathising party [34:56] who were apologists [34:57] for murderers [34:58] so just a reminder [35:00] that those issues [35:02] are not settled [35:03] and that Irish politics [35:04] does occasionally [35:05] bleed into Scottish politics [35:07] Felicity [35:08] well worth mentioning [35:10] that as James says [35:12] of course [35:12] the SNP and Plaid [35:13] have had [35:14] you know [35:15] very warm [35:16] informal relationships [35:16] with each other [35:17] we've had SNP [35:18] speakers at Plaid Cymru [35:19] conferences [35:19] we've also had [35:20] Sinn Féin speakers [35:21] at Plaid Cymru [35:23] conferences [35:23] party conferences [35:24] in the past [35:25] just on that point [35:27] about what happens [35:28] if we have [35:29] a Plaid government [35:30] post-election [35:31] I mean there are [35:32] a lot of the parties [35:33] are trying to make [35:34] the independence issue [35:35] a bigger issue [35:36] than so far [35:37] it appears to be [35:38] in the election [35:39] you know [35:39] reform accuse [35:41] Plaid Cymru [35:42] of trying to bring in [35:42] independence [35:43] by stealth [35:45] the Liberal Democrats [35:46] are saying [35:46] you know [35:47] they wouldn't cooperate [35:47] with any party [35:48] that spent a penny [35:49] of public money [35:50] on trying to further [35:51] independence [35:52] and Welsh Labour [35:52] also having a go [35:54] on the independence issue [35:55] as are the Welsh [35:56] Conservatives [35:56] Plaid say [35:58] look [35:58] we are a pro-independence [36:00] party [36:00] we have no plans [36:01] to try to bring about [36:02] a referendum [36:02] in this term [36:04] of the Senedd [36:04] if we find ourselves [36:05] in government [36:06] the Greens [36:06] taking a very similar [36:08] position there [36:09] but [36:09] the question is [36:10] who would Plaid Cymru [36:12] have to work with [36:13] in the event [36:14] that they were [36:14] either the largest party [36:16] or the party [36:17] that ended up [36:17] trying to form a government [36:18] if reform was the largest party [36:20] and failed to get [36:21] a first minister elected [36:22] and I think that's [36:23] the really big question [36:24] for Wales [36:25] because it may well be [36:27] particularly given [36:27] some of the polling [36:28] we have seen this week [36:29] that Plaid Cymru [36:30] would not simply [36:31] be able to just rely [36:32] on the Greens [36:33] to get them over [36:34] the threshold [36:35] and then you would have [36:36] two pro-independence [36:37] parties in government [36:38] if they have to work [36:39] with some of the other parties [36:41] particularly Welsh Labour [36:42] and that you know [36:43] is another can of worms [36:44] that we can talk about [36:45] another time [36:46] if that is the case [36:46] it's hard to see [36:48] how that smaller [36:50] either coalition partner [36:51] or confidence and supply partner [36:53] or whatever it might be [36:54] would be willing to work [36:56] alongside what they [36:57] might perceive [36:57] as an independence agenda [36:59] and of course [37:00] confidence and supply [37:01] is that arrangement [37:01] where basically a party [37:02] says oh yeah [37:03] we'll vote for the major things [37:04] that keep you in office [37:05] but we're not actually [37:06] going into full coalition [37:07] government with you [37:08] a reminder of what [37:09] the DUP did [37:10] for Theresa May [37:10] right Alex [37:12] what would be your take [37:13] on it from a [37:14] Westminster point of view [37:15] if it's kind of 3-1 [37:16] three nationalist governments [37:18] to one unionist government [37:20] yeah well I mean [37:21] we know the Westminster position [37:22] in response to [37:23] the SNP's argument [37:25] that if they win a majority [37:26] in the Holy Reade elections [37:27] then that would [37:27] should lead to a second [37:28] independence referendum [37:29] is a firm no [37:30] so it's like that kind of [37:31] you know the notion [37:32] that they would [37:33] they would obviously resist [37:35] I think the [37:36] certainly the Labour government [37:37] and the Conservatives [37:38] that those [37:38] more traditional parties [37:40] of Westminster [37:40] or traditionally bigger [37:42] parties of Westminster [37:43] would resist anything [37:44] that they would [37:45] suggest could lead [37:46] to the breakup [37:47] of the union [37:48] in their perspective [37:49] but I do think [37:50] that kind of [37:51] big constitutional question [37:52] is just starting [37:54] to filter into [37:55] people's minds [37:55] and in fact [37:56] I was in Northern Ireland [37:57] with any questions [37:58] a fair few months ago [38:00] now in Belfast [38:01] and there [38:02] people were actively [38:03] considering [38:04] and this was some way [38:05] out from this set [38:05] of elections [38:06] what it would mean [38:07] if that ended up [38:08] being the situation [38:09] and whether or not [38:10] it would push [38:10] that kind of bigger [38:11] constitutional question [38:12] further up the agenda [38:13] so I think [38:14] it's a consideration [38:15] that people [38:15] certainly are [38:17] starting to wake up to [38:19] Felicity thank you [38:20] very much [38:21] pleasure thank you [38:22] James great to catch up [38:23] thanks Adam great to see you [38:25] and Alex thank you [38:26] for your excellent [38:27] motoring potholing knowledge [38:29] I'm glad that we got [38:31] the pothole debate going [38:32] cheers Adam [38:32] you [38:34] you [38:35] you [38:47] you [38:47] you [38:49] you [38:50] you [38:50] you