Will the ceasefire in Lebanon hold this time? — Inside Story

[0:00] Will the ceasefire in Lebanon hold this time? [0:04] Lebanon and Israel have had their first direct talks in decades. [0:07] But as Israel considers Hezbollah a threat, is a lasting peace agreement possible? [0:13] And how much influence does Iran have in Lebanon? [0:16] This is Inside Story. [0:18] Hello again, I'm James Bayes. [0:35] A ceasefire is in effect in Lebanon. [0:38] Israel agreed to the 10-day pause in attacks, [0:41] but has refused to withdraw its troops from the positions they occupy in the south. [0:46] The ceasefire was announced after officials met in person in Washington, D.C., [0:50] the first direct talks since 1993. [0:54] Now there's a hope of an agreement to end Israel's invasion and airstrikes. [0:59] Hezbollah remains the main stumbling block. [1:01] Israel says any deal must include the dismantling of the group, [1:05] while Hezbollah says it will not lay down its weapons. [1:08] All of this comes as Iran is in discussions with the U.S. [1:12] to resolve the nearly seven-week-long war. [1:14] Tehran has insisted on Lebanon being part of any diplomatic settlement. [1:19] In a moment, we'll explore the prospects of peace or renewed tension in Lebanon [1:23] when we're joined by a panel of guests. [1:25] But first, this report from Imogen Kimber. [1:30] Gunshots ring out in celebration across Beirut. [1:33] As a fragile ceasefire comes into effect, [1:39] some of the 1.2 million people displaced from their homes start returning to southern Lebanon, [1:44] navigating roads and bridges destroyed in Israeli airstrikes. [1:47] The U.S. brokered the agreement, [1:50] and President Donald Trump announced it on social media on Thursday. [1:54] Under it, Israel has committed to pause its military offensive for 10 days, [1:58] with the caveat that it will act against anything it perceives as a security threat. [2:03] The Lebanese government says it will work to stop Hezbollah's attacks. [2:08] However, the group argues that as long as Israeli troops are occupying Lebanese territory, [2:13] it has the right to resist and will not disarm. [2:16] You have an element of strength called the resistance. [2:22] You want to eliminate it and then go and conduct direct negotiations without any leverage, [2:28] with the Americans as the mediator? [2:30] What a beautiful equation. [2:33] And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is adamant Israeli forces will not withdraw [2:38] from the positions they currently occupy. [2:40] A security strip of 10 kilometers in width, which is much stronger, much more intensified, [2:48] much more continuous, and much more solid than what we had there before. [2:53] There, we are staying. We are not leaving. [2:56] This is the same conundrum from the November 2024 ceasefire and others before it. [3:02] Trump seems sure things will be different this time around. [3:04] What's going to be the difference this time? [3:07] Me. [3:08] I'm the difference. [3:08] Big difference. Me. [3:10] He's invited Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to the White House for face-to-face talks. [3:16] That'll be the first time they've met in 44 years, which is pretty un-neighbourly, [3:22] considering they're neighbours, but there's a really good chance that that'll work out with Lebanon and Israel. [3:28] Despite Trump's apparent confidence, many people on both sides of the border are not sure that anything has changed. [3:35] Within hours, strikes were reported in southern Lebanon, with an ambulance hit in the town of Konine. [3:43] Imogen Kimber, Al Jazeera, for Inside Story. [3:46] The politics of Lebanon and the wider region is very complicated, [3:55] but we have the right people to make sense of it today on Inside Story. [3:59] Joining us from Paris, Joe Macron, a Middle East political analyst. [4:04] Yossi Meckleberg is in London. [4:06] He's a senior consulting fellow at the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House. [4:10] And Rami Khoury is a distinguished fellow at the American University of Beirut. [4:15] He joins us from Boston, Massachusetts. [4:17] Thank you, all three of you, for joining us today. [4:19] Let me start with you, Rami. [4:22] Let's just first work out what has been agreed. [4:26] And there's also the wider political situation regarding Iran and the US. [4:31] But in terms of this ceasefire, tell me what you understand are the basic terms of this ceasefire. [4:42] The basic terms of the ceasefire are that they stopped shooting from both sides for 10 days. [4:49] And the Israelis maintain their American guaranteed right to continue attacking and destroying and assassinating people [5:01] if they think there's an imminent threat, which they can define any way they want. [5:05] So this is novel because it is a situation where Hezbollah and Iran have forced the United States and Israel to accept the ceasefire that they didn't really want in Lebanon. [5:18] They tried to detach Lebanon from the Iran war, but they were forced to accept the ceasefire by Hezbollah and Iran. [5:26] And that's novel and significant, as they were forced to accept the ceasefire in Iran itself. [5:34] What's not significant is that this is a perpetuation and maybe an aggravation of the tradition of the United States stepping in on the side of Israel, [5:44] guaranteeing Israeli superiority over the condition in the region so that Israel can do anything it wants. [5:52] Joe, I mean, for people in Lebanon, can they be too hopeful? [5:59] Because it's pretty clear we've been here before and not just once. [6:08] I hope it's a difficult question. [6:11] So I don't know how we're going to move forward. [6:15] Just to continue the Rami thought, what we have now is an addendum to the ceasefire in November 2024. [6:23] The last one, we had different interpretations of it. [6:28] And this one also, we have more different interpretations moving forward. [6:33] What's different now is we have a different regional dynamic, which is the U.S. and Iran talks that indirectly led to this ceasefire. [6:45] And then we have, for the first time, a path toward a negotiation, which didn't exist before. [6:53] So those two, but from the technical aspect, they didn't refer to the mechanism, which is the U.S., French, Israeli, Lebanese meeting that used to take place in Nakora. [7:09] So this means we're beyond the status quo of the last 15 years, 15 months. [7:16] So we are in a different dynamic now. [7:18] And the Americans are getting involved directly because the Israelis doesn't want the French to be involved. [7:24] So we have a lot of various dynamics now. [7:27] And at the same time, we have Hezbollah arguing that, unlike the November 2024 that Hezbollah never liked, [7:33] that now Hezbollah is saying we will react if Israeli has a strike. [7:39] So we have different interpretations now moving forward. [7:42] And we have also Israeli press has continued in the south of Litani. [7:46] And you have a Lebanese army who's expected from the American side to step up and come in. [7:53] So the hope is not related to the Lebanese only. [7:57] It's related to what the American-Iranians will do. [8:00] It's related to what the Israeli will do and how much space they have for the Americans to do, [8:05] especially from Trump directly, who's more involved now in the Lebanese fight. [8:10] And we have to see the internal politics in Lebanon, which I know we're going to discuss later, [8:14] but to see also how this is going to play out in at least the next 10 days. [8:19] Yossi, this follows talks, which were pretty unusual face-to-face, [8:24] between the Lebanon ambassador and the Israel ambassador in Washington, D.C. [8:29] How significant was that? [8:32] But I'll also add another part to the question. [8:34] The Trump administration wanted to go further before there was this ceasefire. [8:38] They'd wanted the Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, to have a phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu. [8:43] And Aoun said no to that idea. [8:48] Yeah. [8:49] I mean, direct negotiations are very important. [8:53] It doesn't happen as such since the 1980s. [8:57] And this didn't happen exactly the way that at least Israel expected or some parts of the political map in Lebanon expected. [9:08] But I think this would be the normal situation in which both sides try to resolve their outstanding issue. [9:16] It doesn't happen like this. [9:18] I think what the previous speaker said is very important is to look at the internal dynamics [9:24] and to see, A, that they are capable of not only speaking directly to one another, but reaching an agreement. [9:32] I think all in all, the essence of the agreement, [9:37] if you go back to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, 1599, [9:44] if you go to the ceasefire agreement of 2024, [9:48] the question at the end of the day is the intentions of the side, [9:52] but also the ability of both sides, [9:55] and it's to deal with the dynamic, the internal dynamic within their own countries, [10:00] to reach an agreement which besides recognize first and foremost [10:04] that the sovereignty of each other, [10:07] that the blue line is the border between the two countries, [10:14] and there is no one, no one is attacking each other. [10:18] And what we see now with the ceasefire, [10:21] it's a short term. [10:22] There is also danger in this ceasefire [10:24] that it depends on what happens with Iran. [10:27] So what happens if the ceasefire with Iran collapses? [10:31] Does it mean almost immediately or automatically [10:35] that the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is collapsing [10:40] and it will allow Israel to continue attacking Hezbollah and Lebanon [10:45] and then vice versa? [10:47] So I think the long and short of it, [10:50] it's a very fragile ceasefire, [10:52] and it needs actually addressing it. [10:55] Why, for instance, President Ahun won't talk directly to Netanyahu, [11:00] I think most people understand [11:01] why it puts him in an almost impossible position to do so. [11:06] Rami, there you heard Yossi talk about how fragile it is, [11:10] and one of the things that makes it so fragile [11:12] is the fact that there are still substantial numbers [11:17] of Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, [11:20] and Prime Minister Netanyahu says he's going to keep them there. [11:24] Let's have a quick look at a map. [11:26] He says that he's going to keep a security strip [11:29] that begins at the sea and stretches to Mount Dov [11:33] and the outskirts of Mount Hermon up to the Syrian border. [11:37] That's 10 kilometers wide. [11:40] Isn't that a recipe potentially for real problems, [11:44] for misunderstandings, all sorts of other problems? [11:49] Oh, absolutely. [11:50] It's also the normal operating system for the state of Israel [11:56] and the United States that generally backs it, [11:59] that Israel's priority security is more important [12:03] than anything that relates to Arab countries. [12:07] So the agreement that the statement that they put out [12:10] talked about sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security, [12:14] for all, but in practice, [12:18] when you read through the document that was released, [12:20] it favors the Israelis. [12:22] Israelis can attack any time they want [12:24] if they feel there's a threat. [12:26] And for the Israelis, history shows that a threat [12:28] means a human being who walks around saying, [12:31] I want to be free and dignified, living in my own country. [12:34] That's a threat. [12:35] So the Israelis can do whatever they want, [12:38] and the Americans are the only people [12:41] who decide what happens. [12:44] Edging out the French here is a big change, [12:47] even though the French were not very active [12:49] in monitoring the ceasefire as they were supposed to be [12:51] with the Americans. [12:53] The fact that this is linked to the Iranian-American negotiations [12:59] is very significant. [13:01] So there are new elements here, [13:04] but the old element of Israeli superiority geographically, [13:09] sovereignty, security, still pertains, [13:12] and is affirmed in this document. [13:15] So the Israelis, in theory, might leave. [13:17] I mean, they left the Sinai in Egypt, [13:19] finally, years ago, after they had a full peace agreement. [13:23] They left once, they left Gaza, [13:25] but they continued to encircle it and squeeze it to death, [13:28] so they didn't really leave. [13:30] In Lebanon, we're going to find out [13:32] what actually is going to happen. [13:34] They could leave all that territory [13:37] if there is a permanent agreement, [13:39] but there can only be a permanent agreement [13:41] if there is a link to the Iran situation [13:45] and to the original Palestine-Israel conflict. [13:48] That's why Israel and Hezbollah are fighting. [13:52] That's why Hezbollah was born. [13:54] That's why Iran got into fighting with Israel, [13:57] because of the Palestine issue and Israel and Palestine. [14:01] And now this is an issue that is going to come up [14:04] over and over and over again [14:05] if people are honest enough to address it. [14:08] Joe, I mean, what Rami said there, [14:10] it's worth reminding everyone [14:11] that last time there was a deal like this, [14:15] 27th of November, 2024, [14:18] the ceasefire then, [14:20] Israel continued its attacks [14:22] almost every single day. [14:25] Yeah, at that time, [14:31] Hezbollah was basically caught in attack [14:34] where Nasrallah was killed [14:37] and Zeptyu was killed. [14:38] There were major attacks. [14:40] The dynamics were completely different. [14:42] There was not the U.S.-Iran, [14:43] so the U.S. was not as much invested. [14:45] There was transition, [14:46] the election from Trump to Biden. [14:50] So the interpretation [14:53] and the way this ceasefire was agreed, [14:55] it's very contentious, [14:57] especially between Hezbollah [14:58] and the Speaker's Birri, [14:59] which is their closest allies, [15:01] who pushed for that ceasefire agreement. [15:04] So for them, [15:05] they don't want to go back [15:05] to this ceasefire agreement. [15:08] But just to point out, [15:09] because I know the rhetoric [15:10] of the Israeli government [15:13] always point out [15:13] that the border is the Litani River, [15:16] but the Israelis don't have control [15:18] of the Litani River. [15:19] And now they have maybe in some areas [15:23] seven kilometers or less. [15:26] We have the main battle in Bentejbel, [15:28] which is still contested. [15:31] So, and the point, [15:33] I think even the Israeli military [15:35] got to this point, [15:36] that even if theoretically [15:38] we control all of the Litani River, [15:41] which is impossible to do [15:42] without a big, big invasion, [15:44] they won't be able [15:45] to eliminate Hezbollah [15:45] at the threat, [15:46] nor to stop [15:47] the rocket launch. [15:50] So now, [15:51] what's more dangerous now [15:53] is we have more mixed area. [15:55] We have the Israeli [15:56] controlled some areas, [15:58] Israeli forces, [15:59] but they don't have full control. [16:00] They didn't [16:00] be able to clear everything from it. [16:04] So this is going to be [16:04] a very contested area [16:05] in the coming 10 days [16:06] of how both sides [16:08] are going to avoid clashes, [16:10] because Hezbollah [16:11] instruction that we, [16:12] that they were echoed [16:14] in the media today. [16:16] They asked all their fighters [16:18] to stand where they are, [16:19] not to launch rockets, [16:21] not to move. [16:22] And so we have now [16:23] a new territory. [16:24] Will the Israeli, [16:25] anybody's army go in or not? [16:27] What will happen [16:28] in the next 10 days? [16:29] So, but just to point out, [16:31] they don't have control [16:32] of south of the Litani River. [16:35] Okay. [16:35] I'd like to examine, [16:36] I'd like to examine [16:37] what has changed [16:38] as a result of this war. [16:40] And clearly, [16:41] politically, [16:41] we need to look at that. [16:43] But Rami, [16:43] before we do that, [16:44] we mustn't forget [16:46] the humanitarian angle [16:48] of this [16:49] and just the fact [16:50] that well over 2,000 people [16:52] have been killed [16:53] in this war. [16:54] And remarkably, [16:56] Pakistan, [16:56] the mediator [16:57] in the wider conflict [16:58] between the US and Iran, [16:59] wanted Lebanon included [17:01] on April the 8th. [17:03] And since then, [17:04] a further, [17:05] at least 570 people [17:07] have been killed [17:08] that didn't need [17:09] to be killed. [17:12] Yeah, [17:12] I don't think [17:13] it's so remarkable. [17:14] Pakistan is a very [17:16] knowledgeable leadership [17:18] and they understand [17:19] how these dynamics work [17:21] and they understand [17:22] why this fighting [17:25] goes on [17:26] decade after decade. [17:28] And therefore, [17:29] they insisted [17:29] that the Lebanon [17:30] fighting [17:31] with Hezbollah [17:32] and Israel [17:33] be included [17:33] to resolve [17:35] the Iran-US-Israel [17:37] conflict. [17:38] That's just pure logic. [17:39] But the Israelis [17:40] and Americans [17:40] didn't want to link them. [17:42] They wanted to maintain [17:43] Israeli domination [17:45] over northern Israel [17:47] and southern Lebanon. [17:49] But this has not worked. [17:51] And this is quite fascinating [17:52] how Iran [17:53] and Hezbollah, [17:55] two supposedly ravaged, [17:58] obliterated groups, [18:01] country and group, [18:02] have been able [18:03] to force the US [18:04] and Israel [18:05] to do a ceasefire [18:06] that they didn't really [18:08] want to do. [18:09] The humanitarian side [18:10] is a terrible [18:12] but unfortunate [18:13] side effect [18:15] of the fighting. [18:16] This has been going on [18:17] for decades and decades [18:20] in the Middle East [18:21] and there's nothing worse [18:22] than the humanitarian [18:23] consequences [18:23] of the American-Israeli [18:25] genocide in Gaza, [18:26] which the Israelis [18:27] started to repeat [18:28] in Lebanon [18:29] with this blanket [18:30] destruction, [18:31] carpet bombing [18:32] of entire areas [18:34] and villages [18:34] and they wanted to create [18:36] a security zone [18:37] in the south [18:37] as Joe mentioned. [18:39] But they can't keep [18:42] doing this [18:43] because for the first time [18:44] ever [18:44] they've encountered [18:47] serious opposition [18:48] even from Hezbollah [18:50] and Iran [18:50] that has forced them [18:52] to stop doing this. [18:54] And now we're into [18:55] the phase of possibly [18:56] a negotiation [18:57] to resolve these issues [18:58] rather than [18:59] a unilateral [19:00] Israeli-military-American-supported [19:04] hegemonic assault [19:05] that redraws the maps [19:08] of the Middle East. [19:10] You have to see this [19:11] as my last comment. [19:12] You have to see this [19:13] I think [19:14] as the part [19:15] of the last [19:16] anti-colonial battle [19:18] in the Middle East. [19:19] The Iranians [19:20] and the Hezbollah [19:21] and Hamas [19:22] and others [19:23] are fighting [19:23] to stop [19:24] the century [19:25] of Western hegemonic [19:27] military assault [19:29] and control [19:29] of this region. [19:31] And Palestine [19:32] is the core element there [19:34] and it has spread [19:35] to other parts [19:36] of the region [19:37] but now there's [19:38] a serious attempt [19:39] to stop it [19:41] and to get to a situation [19:42] where the Israelis [19:43] can live in their [19:44] Jewish-majority state [19:45] that the UN [19:46] has accepted [19:47] and Arabs have all accepted [19:48] in the Arab Peace Plan [19:49] but Israel and the U.S. reject [19:51] and to try to stop [19:53] the military dominance [19:56] of Israel and the U.S. [19:57] and to replace it [19:58] with some kind of [19:59] negotiated agreement [20:00] that is fair to all [20:02] and that respects [20:03] international law [20:05] but international law [20:06] was destroyed [20:07] by the U.S. and Israel [20:08] while they were [20:09] carrying out [20:10] the genocide in Gaza. [20:11] Okay, Yossi [20:12] I'd like your reading [20:13] of how this ceasefire [20:16] has been viewed [20:18] inside Israel. [20:21] It seems to have [20:22] taken the country [20:24] by surprise [20:25] including perhaps [20:26] the cabinet. [20:28] tell us [20:29] how also [20:30] it affects [20:30] the fortunes [20:32] of Prime Minister [20:33] Netanyahu. [20:34] The Middle East [20:34] is a strange place [20:35] fortunes can change [20:36] sharply [20:37] and swiftly. [20:39] He was looking [20:40] very popular [20:41] at the start [20:42] of this war. [20:44] Yeah. [20:45] Let me start [20:46] to maybe say [20:47] that I don't subscribe [20:48] to the opinion [20:50] that Iran [20:52] and the Hezbollah [20:53] are the kind of [20:54] the knight in [20:54] shining armor [20:56] for the Palestinians. [20:57] Yes, the Palestinian [20:58] issue should be [21:01] resolved [21:02] in a just [21:03] and fair [21:04] manner, [21:05] but to think [21:06] that Iran [21:07] and the Hezbollah [21:07] are doing that [21:08] and not for their own [21:09] purposes [21:10] and interests [21:11] I think is a bit naive. [21:13] I think that [21:14] they have their own game [21:15] about their own survival. [21:17] If Hezbollah [21:18] loses relevance [21:19] if there is no [21:20] resistance to Israel [21:22] and I think actually [21:23] Israel falling into [21:24] this trap [21:25] again and again [21:26] and again [21:27] by overreacting [21:28] disproportionately [21:29] using its military power [21:32] it doesn't actually [21:33] look into the wider game [21:35] in the region. [21:37] As for what you ask [21:38] we know that [21:41] what happened [21:42] Israel [21:43] and under Netanyahu [21:44] needs always [21:46] to keep some [21:47] fronts open. [21:49] This is what keeps [21:49] Netanyahu in power [21:51] as long as there is conflict. [21:52] It can be in Gaza [21:53] it can be in the West Bank [21:54] Iran [21:55] Hezbollah [21:56] and Lebanon. [21:58] Not that Israel [21:59] doesn't have justification [22:00] that Hezbollah [22:01] attacks it. [22:02] It attacked it in 2023 [22:04] immediately after [22:05] the Hamas attack. [22:06] It joined Iran. [22:08] It's the question [22:08] how it responds to this [22:09] and what it takes [22:11] it takes actually [22:12] liberties [22:12] to inflict [22:14] this humanitarian [22:15] tremendous pain [22:18] on other countries [22:19] or society. [22:21] Israel [22:22] was interested [22:23] to keep [22:24] most of the government [22:25] was interested [22:26] in keeping this war [22:27] with the Hezbollah [22:28] going. [22:29] They think [22:30] that they have a job [22:31] to finish [22:32] whether [22:33] it's realistic or not [22:36] I don't think [22:36] it's realistic [22:37] and it's again [22:38] one of the problems [22:39] with the Israeli government [22:41] as it is [22:41] is the only [22:42] only modus operandi [22:44] is using military power [22:45] never translated [22:46] and when to stop [22:47] and when to move [22:48] to diplomatic [22:49] sphere. [22:51] But Netanyahu [22:52] took this decision [22:53] despite opposition [22:55] within the security cabinet [22:56] despite [22:57] what many commentators [22:59] said [22:59] despite what [23:00] most of the coalition [23:02] think [23:02] despite what people [23:04] in the north [23:04] demanded from him [23:06] they feel that [23:06] they were actually [23:07] being sold out [23:08] but reality is [23:10] Netanyahu [23:11] the only person [23:12] it's not a country [23:14] the only person [23:15] that Netanyahu [23:17] feels [23:17] is Trump. [23:18] If Trump says [23:20] stop to the war [23:21] with Iran [23:22] he stops [23:23] stops with Hezbollah [23:24] he stops [23:25] that's the only break [23:27] that exists right now [23:28] when Netanyahu [23:29] government [23:30] as far as [23:31] Netanyahu government [23:31] is concerned. [23:31] Let me turn to Joe [23:33] and let's get a feeling [23:35] of what you think [23:36] is going on [23:37] with regard to [23:38] the government [23:38] in Beirut [23:40] because you had [23:41] a new team [23:42] just over a year ago [23:43] a new prime minister [23:44] a new president [23:44] they said [23:46] they were going to push [23:46] Hezbollah [23:47] to disarm [23:49] they tried [23:50] a little bit [23:51] and maybe they had [23:52] a few little bits [23:54] of success [23:55] do you think [23:57] disarmament [23:58] is a real possibility [23:59] now? [24:04] At this moment [24:05] no [24:05] we have to see [24:08] how things will evolve [24:09] now we have [24:10] the executive branch [24:12] which basically [24:14] took a strategic [24:15] decision to be closer [24:16] to the U.S. side [24:17] on this [24:18] and you have [24:19] Hezbollah [24:19] basically [24:20] who remains [24:21] obviously [24:22] in the Iranian [24:23] and then you have [24:24] the parliament speaker [24:24] who's trying to be [24:26] the embarrassing act [24:26] and he's the most [24:28] decisive person [24:29] now in the dynamic [24:30] he basically said [24:33] we will not negotiate [24:34] if there's no ceasefire [24:36] and this helped [24:38] the dynamic [24:38] whether externally [24:40] or internally [24:40] to reach [24:41] the ceasefire [24:42] just after [24:44] the negotiation [24:45] and now [24:46] the second step [24:47] which is [24:48] to advance more [24:49] whether [24:50] a call between [24:50] the Israeli prime minister [24:52] and the Lebanese president [24:53] and now the line [24:55] in Lebanon [24:55] is we will not [24:56] arrive to this moment [24:59] without the Israeli [24:59] withdrawal from the south [25:00] so we have [25:02] and we have now [25:04] we are in an impasse [25:06] since a while [25:06] but now it's more clear [25:07] the Israeli cannot [25:10] end Hezbollah [25:11] threat militarily [25:12] Hezbollah cannot [25:14] liberate south of Lebanon [25:16] militarily [25:16] and you have [25:18] still in the Iranian [25:21] U.S. impasse somehow [25:22] so the past now [25:24] becomes increasingly clear [25:25] is you have to have [25:26] negotiated settlement [25:28] but we are still [25:29] in a position [25:29] Let me bring back [25:30] in Rami at that point [25:32] so you have to have [25:33] a negotiated settlement [25:34] clearly Yossi has said [25:36] that the only person [25:38] Netanyahu listens to [25:39] is Trump [25:40] how worried are you [25:42] that Trump [25:42] might move on [25:44] and not really [25:45] keep his interest [25:46] in that [25:46] in this [25:47] for example [25:47] the Gaza ceasefire [25:49] was October [25:50] last year [25:52] six months ago [25:53] three months ago [25:54] we were told [25:54] it was moving [25:55] to phase two [25:56] the thing seems [25:57] not to be our priority [25:58] for the administration [25:59] are you worried [26:00] Lebanon might go [26:01] the same way? [26:05] Oh for sure [26:05] Trump has a very short [26:07] attention span [26:08] and an even shorter [26:10] repository of actual [26:12] knowledge about the region [26:13] he doesn't really know [26:14] Lebanon [26:15] Palestine [26:16] Israel [26:17] Iran [26:19] his knowledge [26:20] is very very limited [26:21] he basically reacts [26:23] to electoral impulses [26:24] and to the [26:26] right wing [26:27] groups that support him [26:29] including the [26:30] Christian Zionists [26:31] who are very pro-Israeli [26:32] and the people [26:33] who help fund [26:34] his elections [26:35] so he's not [26:37] a very serious [26:38] practitioner [26:39] of Middle East [26:41] diplomacy [26:41] he's into it [26:42] now [26:43] because of the [26:44] Iran situation [26:46] which [26:46] Netanyahu [26:47] got him to [26:48] to get involved [26:50] in by launching [26:51] that war [26:51] but yes [26:52] Trump could just say [26:53] oh you know [26:53] I've had enough of this [26:54] these people [26:54] have been fighting [26:55] for 3,000 years [26:56] no they haven't been [26:57] fighting for 3,000 years [26:58] they've been fighting [26:59] since the British [27:00] Balfour Declaration [27:01] of 1917 [27:02] promised the Jewish [27:03] homeland [27:04] in a land that was [27:05] 93% Palestinian [27:06] and then the Israeli [27:08] state was created [27:08] in 1948 [27:10] that's [27:11] they've been fighting [27:12] since then [27:12] and until that [27:14] conflict is resolved [27:16] they're going to keep [27:16] fighting [27:16] as are [27:17] most of the people [27:18] in the Middle East [27:19] government [27:19] to support them [27:20] so a diplomatic [27:21] resolution [27:21] can happen [27:23] faster [27:24] if the United States [27:25] is involved in it [27:26] and we saw [27:27] several times now [27:28] where the US [27:29] pushed Netanyahu [27:30] for a ceasefire [27:30] in Gaza [27:31] a year ago [27:32] it didn't last [27:33] very long [27:34] it wasn't serious [27:34] ceasefire in Lebanon [27:36] now [27:36] ceasefire in Iran [27:37] so [27:38] Rami [27:38] thank you [27:40] thank you very much [27:41] Rami Khoury [27:42] Joe Macron [27:43] and Yossi [27:44] Mechelberg [27:45] are our guests [27:46] today on [27:46] Inside Story [27:47] Al Jazeera's teams [27:48] in Beirut [27:49] and southern Lebanon [27:50] will continue to cover [27:51] this story [27:52] with plenty more [27:52] analysis at [27:53] aljazeera.com [27:54] your views are [27:54] welcome as ever [27:55] on Facebook [27:56] share your thoughts [27:57] at facebook.com [27:58] forward slash [27:59] AJ Inside Story [28:00] or post on X [28:02] our username is [28:02] at AJ Inside Story [28:04] for now [28:05] that's it [28:05] from me [28:05] James Bayes [28:06] and the production [28:07] team here [28:08] but Al Jazeera's [28:09] coverage never stops [28:10] stay tuned for the latest