Why the Ceasefire Could Hinge on Israel

[0:00] It's Friday, April 10th, and maybe Iran isn't the only country the U.S. needs to be negotiating with. [0:06] We start here. [0:10] With a ceasefire hanging in the balance, Israel and Hezbollah continue attacking each other. [0:15] There are differences of opinion, and actually kind of quite substantial. [0:19] Now the U.S. is exerting pressure. [0:21] His own stepdaughter said his story didn't add up, well now he's under arrest. [0:25] I just want to know the truth so I can get some closure. [0:27] A disappearance in the Bahamas is echoing on American shores. [0:31] And it's a countdown to splashdown. [0:34] That is by far the most dangerous part of probably the entire mission, arguably. [0:38] What our corner of the solar system is watching for as Artemis II returns to Earth. [0:45] From ABC News, this is Start Here. [0:48] I'm Brad Milkey. [0:54] If a ceasefire means that two countries are not firing on each other, [0:58] then the ceasefire right now between the U.S. and Iran seems to be holding. [1:01] It's a very uneasy, very tenuous truce. [1:04] But when President Trump announced this deal, he said it was contingent on the Strait of Hormuz opening to shipping traffic. [1:11] If that's the measure of success, well, that is way more complicated. [1:15] With Iran now being tested, only three known ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz today. [1:20] Iran's demands tonight involving Israel now. [1:22] Yesterday, a non-Iranian ship did manage to pass through the Strait, but it was one of just a handful throughout the day. [1:30] No one wants to dare the Iranian regime to attack them, while Iran maintains the ceasefire has already been violated. [1:36] After all, Israel continues to barrage suspected Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon. [1:45] And that is where there is a fundamental difference of opinion. [1:48] Iran says those strikes, those break the ceasefire. [1:51] The thing is supposed to apply to everything in the Middle East, including Lebanon. [1:55] Israel, and the U.S., for that matter, say, that has nothing to do with this ceasefire. [1:58] That's a different conflict. [2:00] Iran responds to that by saying, you all can think whatever you want. [2:03] The final word lies with us, because we are still in charge of the Strait. [2:08] With that, let's take you to ABC's chief foreign correspondent, Ian Pannell, who's back in Tel Aviv this morning in Israel. [2:13] Ian, can you just walk me through what's been happening over the last 24 hours? [2:16] Where are we now? [2:17] Yeah, I mean, the devil is in the detail, and we're already seeing that, right? [2:21] Everyone's using the word shaky and fragile to describe this ceasefire, and I think those are both very good descriptions. [2:28] So on the one hand, you have the Strait of Hormuz, which was supposed to be reopened. [2:32] In fact, President Trump said that the ceasefire would only come into place once it was reopened again. [2:39] The deal is a ceasefire, a negotiation. [2:42] That's what we give. [2:43] And what they give is the straits are going to be reopened. [2:45] If we don't see that happening, the president is not going to abide by our terms if the Iranians are not abiding by their terms. [2:51] Iran announced that, yes, it would reopen it, but it would retain control. [2:55] And it's worth noting that before the war, there was unfettered access through this vital waterway. [3:02] Right. [3:02] Whereas now what Iran is saying is that any shipping company, any country, now has to go through the Iranian military to coordinate going through that strait. [3:13] As you say, only a handful of ships went through there. [3:16] All the ships that they would like to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, they have to communicate with our army and our military. [3:25] But Iran also linking the limited flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz to what's happening in Lebanon. [3:32] Now, it's important for people to understand that Hezbollah, which is probably one of the strongest militant groups in the region, is backed by Iran. [3:41] It's been armed by Iran for years and Iran regards it as part of the axis of resistance. [3:47] So when this war began, Hezbollah basically threw its hand in to support Iran by attacking Israel. [3:55] I think for Israel, for the Israeli government, they saw this as an opportunity to go back after Hezbollah and severely weaken them. [4:05] I want to tell you, there is no ceasefire in Lebanon. [4:10] We continue to strike Hezbollah with force, and we will not stop until we restore your security. [4:15] But Iran and Pakistan, which acted as mediators, say that a ceasefire in Lebanon was absolutely part of the deal. [4:23] And as you say, the U.S. and Israel say, no, it wasn't. [4:28] I think the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn't. [4:33] Then we had further developments because it was clearly creating a lot of pressure, with Iran saying, you're violating the ceasefire already. [4:41] President Trump speaking to Prime Minister Netanyahu on Wednesday, urging him to scale back attacks and to open direct talks with the Lebanese government, [4:50] which Prime Minister Netanyahu now says will happen in the coming days. [4:54] Okay, so that seems like the development here is the U.S. almost leaning on Israel to tamp it down. [4:59] Because I think to a lot of the world, it appears like the U.S. and Israel are just completely in lockstep. [5:03] They're completely aligned on everything. [5:04] They would probably tell you, yeah, we're in lockstep, we're aligned. [5:07] But is this the area where they could diverge? [5:10] Because, like, does Benjamin Netanyahu just fundamentally see his war against Iranian proxies as separate from Trump's war on Iran? [5:16] Is it possible he says, I never agreed to stop bombing Lebanon, Mr. President? [5:21] Like, you can do that if you want, but, like, I'm not sticking to that deal. [5:24] Yeah, I mean, look, the reality is that Prime Minister Netanyahu will do the bidding of the U.S. government if it's put under enough pressure. [5:34] Remember, there was another war not that long ago between Israel and Lebanon, and the civilian casualty rates were rising. [5:42] And it was the Biden administration at the time put pressure on Netanyahu to wrap it up. [5:48] So I think that's what we're seeing. [5:51] But, yeah, there are differences of opinion and actually kind of quite substantial. [5:55] I think if Israel, certainly the Netanyahu government, had been given a choice, they certainly wouldn't have wrapped up the war with Iran right now. [6:04] And they certainly wouldn't have talked about Iran's 10-point peace plan in the relatively positive terms that President Trump used. [6:13] I mean, for Israel, it doesn't want Iran to have enrichment again. [6:19] President Trump says he doesn't as well. [6:20] But Iran is saying, hey, that was part of the deal. [6:23] What about the enriched uranium, the £1,000 of highly enriched uranium? [6:29] What about support for these proxy groups like Hezbollah? [6:33] Again, the White House made it very clear this is one of the key war goals. [6:37] Sever the links between Iran and these proxy groups. [6:41] Well, clearly that's not happening because you've got Iran coming out now saying, you know, you need to stop attacking Lebanon and Hezbollah. [6:48] And I think for Israel, look, you know, Hezbollah attacked Israel. [6:53] And even yesterday, we saw a significant number of rockets being fired by Hezbollah into Israel. [6:59] Prime Minister Netanyahu has a duty to protect the Israeli people. [7:03] And so they must respond. [7:04] But I think there's also an element within the Israeli cabinet that sees this as an opportunity to once again significantly weaken what is a considerable threat on Israel's border. [7:17] And maybe get in your last licks now before the U.S. clamps down on you, perhaps, if you're Israel. [7:22] Exactly, exactly, which is why I think we saw on Wednesday the heaviest strikes in this particular part of the war, the second front, if you like, so far, with hundreds of people killed, over a thousand wounded. [7:38] You do get the sense that this is the Israeli government, the Israeli military trying to make hay while the sun shines. [7:46] In other words, go after Hezbollah as strongly as you can, weaken them as much as you can before President Trump says enough. [7:54] All right. In the meantime, you wonder if you're the captain of a shipping tanker there in the Persian Gulf right now, the U.S. is telling you, hey, the Strait of Hormuz is open. [8:02] And Iran is telling you, yeah, the Strait of Hormuz is kind of open if you give us money. Like, can you imagine being like, yeah, let's try it. [8:08] Let's see if they attack us with drones. That's why you're just not seeing very much traffic. [8:12] All right. Ian Pannell, they're in Tel Aviv this morning. Thank you. [8:15] Yeah, thanks, Brad. [8:16] Next up on Start here, he said it was a tragic accident. Now he's explaining it to police in jail. [8:25] That's where our team found his attorney. We'll take you to the Bahamas after the break. [8:29] Earlier this week, a Hawaii doctor was convicted by a jury of trying to kill his wife. [8:39] Gerhard Koenig was seen by witnesses hitting his wife in the head with a rock. [8:45] Prosecutors said he also tried to inject her with a syringe and push her off a cliff. [8:49] He's saying, like, you're done. We're done with you. We don't need you anymore. You're done. You're done. [8:55] She survived, though, and watched as he was unanimously convicted despite his claims of self-defense. [9:01] This was actually a lesser charge than the attempted murder he was accused of he plans to appeal. [9:05] Well, yesterday, less than 24 hours later, we learned another American man was arrested once again on a tropical island in connection with his wife's disappearance. [9:15] This unfolded in the Bahamas, which is where we find ABC's Victor Okendo now. He's in Freeport. [9:21] Victor, how did this all start? Can you just walk me back here? [9:23] So, Brad, it has been almost a week now, and everything I'm about to say, this comes from Brian Hooker's account of what happened. [9:31] It was last Saturday. Brian and his wife, Lynette, they were leaving this popular bar and restaurant at the Abaco Inn that's on Elbow Key. [9:39] It was around 7.30 p.m., and they got in their dinghy to head back to their sailboat. [9:44] That's a really normal mode of transportation for those who live on boats. [9:48] You take your dinghy, go grab a bite to eat or a drink, and then you head back to your larger boat. [9:52] Well, he says that it was dark, a bad storm hit. [9:56] Lynette fell off the boat along with the keys to the dinghy, and the engine shut off. [10:01] Those keys, they act as kind of a kill switch for that kind of boat. [10:05] Well, they got separated, and he says that the current swept her away, and he was left to paddle. [10:11] It took about eight hours, a little bit longer than that, until he made it to land on Marsh Harbor. [10:18] It was a boatyard where he ended up, and that's where he reported her missing. [10:21] Well, and so the surge is still ongoing, but I guess attention now seems to have really come back to Brian Hooker himself. [10:27] Why? [10:28] Okay, so before he was taken in custody, from the beginning, locals said that this sounded strange. [10:34] Those dinghy rides, they're usually very quick. [10:37] The area that they left from really isn't all that big. [10:39] Now, from the Abaco Inn to the boatyard, if you were to take the dinghy all the way there, that should take just about 20 minutes. [10:47] Hmm. [10:48] It took him more than eight hours. [10:51] Wow. [10:51] Typically, though, people would not be riding a small eight-and-a-half-foot dinghy clear across the way like that. [10:56] You're usually moored up a bit closer, and they were at the time. [11:00] So people struggle to understand how it could have taken so long. [11:04] We also spoke with someone at the boatyard, where their dinghy ended up, who said he saw it. [11:10] He saw that there were life jackets and an unused flare. [11:13] His point was, it's your wife. Wouldn't you fire off that flare or anchor immediately or go swim after her? [11:21] And then you have Lynette's daughter. [11:22] The story is a little sketchy to me. [11:26] Safe to say that she has been suspicious from the beginning. [11:29] I just want to know the truth so I can get some closure. [11:32] Saying that Brian, her stepfather, and her mother have had a rocky relationship. [11:37] I know they have been drinking more often, and problems arise when they drink. [11:42] Saying that her mom would not just fall off of a dinghy. [11:46] She's a good swimmer. She's pretty fit. [11:49] And, yeah, I don't feel like she would just fall off a boat. [11:54] And she wants a full investigation here. [11:56] Okay, so then what's been happening in the last 24, 36 hours? [11:58] Because it went from suspicions to the police getting involved. [12:02] Things really started to pick up, Brad. [12:04] Brian Hooker was arrested late Wednesday. [12:06] We actually spoke with his attorney. [12:08] He was transported from Marsh Harbor to Freeport. [12:11] But when and how was he transported here to Freeport? [12:15] Okay, so this is what happened now. [12:18] This was interesting. [12:19] They brought him to his boat after he was arrested. [12:22] His attorney says that they were doing a search of his boat. [12:25] They had him handcuffed at the time. [12:27] They were letting him grab a few pieces of clothing. [12:30] They transported him at night, and he said the weather was very rough. [12:34] And he actually fell off of his boat, aptly named the Soulmate. [12:38] He was on the Soulmate. [12:40] Yes, they took him there to conduct a search, and he fell. [12:44] And they had to rescue him. [12:46] And he received the injury there. [12:48] His attorney says that he hurt his leg. [12:51] He's walking with a limp right now. [12:53] How does it seem like he's doing through all of this? [12:55] It was very difficult for him, you know, to be in a situation where you were with your [13:03] wife for over 25 years. [13:05] She has disappeared. [13:07] You're all alone. [13:08] She was his saving partner. [13:10] His attorney says that he categorically and unequivocally denies any wrongdoing here. [13:16] But we should note that as of right now, he has not been charged, and police have not [13:22] told his attorney why he's under arrest. [13:25] I was going to say, like, he's been detained. [13:27] You can say he's under arrest, but it's not as if he's been charged with an actual crime [13:30] or even accused of a very clear-cut crime, at least not by the authorities. [13:34] Victor Rokendo, they're in Freeport in the Bahamas right now. [13:36] Thank you so much. [13:37] You got it, Brad. [13:40] For the last nine days, the Artemis II mission has captivated imaginations around the world. [13:45] We've watched humankind fly by the moon for the first time in half a century. [13:50] Well, today, on day 10, that mission comes to an end as these astronauts splash down. [13:55] So with that, let's preview what's about to happen here. [13:57] Matthew Glasser is our senior coordinating producer covering all things space. [14:01] Matthew, what's going to happen here? [14:02] Walk me through it. [14:03] Well, it's time for the Artemis crew to finally come home. [14:06] They're going to start their day by configuring the Orion spacecraft for reentry. [14:10] There's a lot of things they have to do on their checklist. [14:13] And then a big moment it happens. [14:15] The service module, that's the part of the vehicle that's been providing propulsion, [14:19] life support, power, that separates from the Orion capsule. [14:24] That's the capsule everybody pictures when they think of a space capsule coming back to Earth. [14:28] And when that separation happens, it reveals the heat shield. [14:31] And that heat shield is what's going to keep them safe from the nearly 5,000 degree temperatures [14:35] that they're going to be exposed to when they reenter Earth's atmosphere. [14:39] And riding a fireball through the atmosphere is profound as well. [14:43] Once that separation occurs, they do a little bit of maneuvering to make sure they're in their [14:47] proper position, they put their visors down, and then at 400,000 feet, they reenter Earth's [14:53] atmosphere. [14:54] And for the first six minutes or so, comms are blacked out. [14:58] NASA doesn't know what's going on. [15:00] They can't talk to them. [15:01] They can't hear from them. [15:03] They're waiting for that comms blackout to clear. [15:05] And they're really hoping that everything is going the way it's supposed to. [15:08] One of the first press conferences we were asked, what are we looking forward to? [15:10] And I said, splashdown. [15:11] And it's kind of humorous, but it's literal as well that we have to get back. [15:17] So the communications blackout ends, and communications are restored, and everybody [15:21] breathes a sigh of relief because we know that they're safe. [15:24] We know that they have withstood the most extreme temperatures. [15:26] The heat shield has done its job. [15:28] That's when the parachutes do their thing. [15:31] Now, something to keep in mind is the atmosphere, while it creates a lot of heat that could potentially [15:35] put the astronauts in harm's way, it also does a really good job at slowing down the spacecraft. [15:40] When they hit the atmosphere, they're going at about 24,000, 25,000 miles per hour. [15:45] And so parachutes won't stop something that fast, but the atmosphere causes them to slow [15:50] down and get to a point where they can use two sets of parachutes, something they call [15:55] the drogue parachutes first. [15:56] That slows them to about 200 miles per hour. [15:59] And then the main chutes come out, and that gets them down to 19, 20 miles per hour, where [16:04] it's slow enough that they can splash down in the ocean and be recovered from the vehicle. [16:08] And so then they splash down off the coast of San Diego just after 8 p.m. Eastern. [16:12] Well, and Matthew, to hear you say it, I mean, so much of this sounds familiar to how, you [16:16] know, like the Apollo 13 re-entry went that, you know, so many of us saw portrayed on film. [16:21] Like, is the basic idea of these return missions pretty much still the same? [16:25] I mean, when you think about the fact that the heat shield is using the same material [16:28] that the Apollo missions use. [16:30] Is it? [16:30] It's called Avcote. [16:31] It's slightly, it's manufactured differently, but it's literally the same material that the [16:35] Apollo astronauts used when they came home. [16:37] The trajectory, you mentioned Apollo 13, they used a free return trajectory. [16:42] These astronauts used a free return trajectory. [16:44] That's using the moon and the Earth's gravity to propel them around. [16:48] There's a lot more similarities than people would think between the Apollo days and the [16:53] Artemis days. [16:54] And a lot of that's because math and physics is, you know, doesn't really change. [16:57] You know, orbital dynamics, the way they plot and navigate doesn't change whether it's [17:03] 1969 or, you know, 2026. [17:06] But with that in mind, then, I mean, are there risks here? [17:09] I assume the biggest risk is that moment you said of sort of radio blackout when there's [17:12] so much friction, so much heat building up. [17:14] But I mean, what did NASA engineers have their eyes on, I guess, today? [17:18] Yeah, ultimately, that is the biggest risk for this particular part of the mission is [17:22] the period when they're in that blackout, when the spacecraft is withstanding, you know, [17:27] the 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit, when that heat shield is what's keeping the astronauts safe [17:31] during that communications blackout period. [17:34] People definitely hold their breath because, you know, while the heat shield is designed [17:38] to withstand that kind of temperature, you know, that's the period where if something's [17:42] going to go wrong, that's likely where it's going to go wrong. [17:45] And NASA, you know, has decided to change the trajectory for this mission as opposed to [17:50] Artemis 1 so that it spends less time in those high heat areas. [17:54] So it has less stress on the vehicle. [17:57] But they're still going to be, you know, waiting for those astronauts' voices to pop up again [18:01] when it's time to restore communications. [18:03] And everyone's going to breathe that sigh of relief when they're like, mission control, [18:07] we hear you. [18:07] Artemis 2 here. [18:09] Because that is by far the most dangerous part of probably the entire mission, arguably. [18:13] For all that prep that they've done and that really you and your team have done, Matthew, [18:17] I'm not even sure I was ready for how sort of inspirational and forthcoming [18:23] these astronauts have been over these last nine days, 10 days. [18:26] Any moments, any poignant moments that have surprised you or engaged you as you've been watching? [18:30] Yeah, I really think they're the perfect crew because you're really getting to experience [18:34] the journey with them. [18:36] Even though they're professional astronauts, you can see the awe in the way they talk and [18:40] the way they look. [18:41] Even looking at the pictures, I was looking today at them looking out the window. [18:44] NASA released some photos of them doing their lunar observation when they were behind the [18:48] far side of the moon. [18:49] And you can see they are genuinely in awe of what they're seeing. [18:54] You know, our purpose on the planet as humans is to find joy, to find the joy in lifting [19:00] each other up by creating solutions together instead of destroying. [19:04] And when you see it from out here, it doesn't change it. [19:08] It just absolutely reaffirms that. [19:10] These are people who truly are loving their experience. [19:13] And I think we are sharing that with them down on Earth. [19:15] I think one of the reasons people are so enamored by what's happening is because it's infectious. [19:20] You can see the energy. [19:21] You can see the excitement. [19:23] You can see the drive to explore on all four of their faces and the way they talk and the [19:28] way they communicate. [19:29] And lifelong memories. [19:30] I'm going to be thinking about and talking about all of these things for the rest of my [19:33] life for sure. [19:34] I've been really impressed by how they've handled themselves. [19:38] And, you know, the pictures that they have taken and shared are just amazing. [19:42] I mean, it's hard not to look at those pictures and ask big questions about our place in the [19:46] universe and the importance of science and discovery just in the images that they're [19:52] sharing and the video that they're sharing. [19:53] And as you were telling me a while back, the science, the pictures, all that is kind of [19:57] icing on the cake, that the real mission here is to show the science is still sound. [20:02] We can still get people up to the moon and back safely. [20:06] And as long as that goes down today without a hitch, that itself is the sort of pass the [20:10] baton moment for these next Artemis missions. [20:13] So a huge moment coming up later today. [20:15] Matthew Glasser will be watching. [20:16] Thank you. [20:17] Thank you. [20:19] OK, one more quick break. [20:20] When we come back, it's never a good sign when Republicans, Democrats and the Justice Department [20:24] are all huddling up across from you. [20:26] One last thing is next. [20:30] And one last thing. [20:32] I was watching the Masters Golf Tournament yesterday. [20:35] And even though it's just one golf tournament, depending on what time and day you're tuning [20:38] in, it could be on one of four different networks. [20:42] Amazon, CBS, Paramount, our partner ESPN. [20:45] If you want to watch every hour of coverage, you might need to pay several different streaming [20:50] services. [20:51] Now, I don't like golf that much, so I'm not stressed. [20:54] But this is not the only sport where hardcore fans have been frustrated lately. [20:58] And yesterday, sources told ABC News the Justice Department is investigating the NFL over [21:04] its TV deals. [21:05] Underway on Christmas here on Netflix. [21:09] So this past Christmas, there were two NFL games. [21:12] Neither of them were on a traditional broadcast network. [21:15] They were both on Netflix. [21:16] Some fans grumbled. [21:17] One more thing to pay for. [21:19] Netflix is expensive. [21:20] And you might be thinking, boo-hoo. [21:22] That's how capitalism works. [21:23] Netflix paid the NFL a bunch of money to broadcast the games. [21:27] They get to broadcast them. [21:28] No different from any other media venture. [21:30] But that's just it. [21:31] Under the law, for decades, sports have been different. [21:37] It's a big break for Baltimore. [21:39] And Johnny Unitas tries to take advantage of it. [21:41] See, back in the 1940s and 50s, football teams very much operated as individual franchises. [21:47] When the NFL tried to impose nationwide conditions for broadcasting its games, critics said, [21:52] whoa, whoa, whoa, that would make you, like, a monopoly? [21:55] A federal judge said the league was breaking the law. [21:58] So in 1961, with the NFL support, Congress passed a new law called the Sports Broadcasting [22:04] Act. [22:05] And it said on a few key points, the NFL is exempt from certain antitrust provisions. [22:11] It was now playing by its own rules in setting up broadcasting deals. [22:15] The Jets, who had gambled $400,000 on a great quarterback with two bad knees, were the champions [22:20] of professional football. [22:22] Now, there were exceptions here. [22:24] The law specifically said the NFL could not get these carve-outs near high school or college [22:29] football games on Friday nights and Saturday afternoons. [22:32] That is why, to this day, the NFL generally sticks to Sundays. [22:37] Well, fast forward to now, some lawmakers say this has gotten out of hand. [22:41] Games used to be on free network channels. [22:43] Now there are subscriptions galore. [22:45] They used to be split up among one or two networks. [22:48] Now you might need to set up a new account for one or two games. [22:51] We created the rule to allow more Americans to watch sports, they say. [22:55] If anything, this is starting to box people out. [22:58] The NFL says, quote, [22:59] the NFL's media distribution model is the most fan and broadcaster-friendly in the entire [23:04] sports and entertainment industry, end quote. [23:07] They say 87% of their games still air on free broadcast television. [23:12] Netflix did not comment. [23:13] But if the DOJ finds the NFL is operating outside the law, these broadcast deals could [23:19] all be at risk. [23:20] And think about how much money that represents. [23:23] Last year, of the top 100 best-rated episodes of television, 83 of those were NFL games. [23:29] To give up all that negotiating power for a few extra streaming options could be a massive [23:34] fumble. [23:35] I mean, the answer could be that maybe we should all learn to live without seeing every single [23:43] game every single time. [23:44] But what would I do when there's a lull in conversation at the Christmas party? [23:47] Gotta have those games on. [23:48] Start Here is produced by Kelly Therese, Jen Newman, Anthony Ali, Aaron Ferrer, and Emily [23:53] Schutz. [23:54] Ariel Chester is our social media producer. [23:56] Josh Kohan is director of podcast programming. [23:59] I'm our managing editor. [24:00] Thanks to John Newman, Terry Gimble, Eamon McNiff, and Katie Dendos. [24:04] Special thanks this week to Trevor Hastings, Will Gretzky, and Stephanie Pawlowski. [24:08] I'm Brad Milkey. [24:08] I'm out on Monday, but I'll see you next week.