Why Pakistan is key in the US-Israel war on Iran — The Take

[0:00] Today, Pakistan walks a fine line between diplomacy and escalating conflict. [0:05] Pakistan is positioning itself as a key mediator between the U.S. and Iran. [0:11] Islamabad accusing Kabul of harboring militants behind cross-border attacks, [0:16] claims which the Taliban government denies. [0:19] As Pakistan plays mediator in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, [0:24] we look at another conflict that appears to be escalating. [0:27] I'm Kevin Hurtin, and this is The Take. [0:36] Hi. Before we continue with today's show, remember to leave us a comment telling us [0:40] what you think about this episode. Do you think that this war has any chance of ending soon? [0:46] What do you think about the conflict going on in Afghanistan and Pakistan? [0:50] And let us know what stories you want us to do next. And remember, if you're on your [0:54] favorite podcast app, leave us a review and a five-star rating. It really does help the show. [0:58] I'm Osama Bin Javid. I'm a senior correspondent for Al Jazeera English, [1:05] and I'm coming to you from the newsroom. [1:07] Yes, Osama. You just [1:09] came from the newsroom. [1:10] You just came off the set doing a live shot. Can you just start us off by talking about what [1:15] it's like covering this war? I mean, trying to keep up with everything that's happening. [1:19] I can't be the only one who's struggling with this. [1:22] It is extraordinary. The flurry of information is just nonstop. You've got [1:27] misinformation coming to you from all sides, and you really have to verify the facts and put the [1:34] correct information on there. I've been following this. I was in Geneva 1. I was in Geneva 2. [1:39] I've been following the developments, whether they were taking place in Abu Dhabi or Oman, [1:44] as these talks progressed. And then finally, there was a war. And during this war, [1:50] it is very difficult to assert facts from wishful thinking from various sides. You have to remember [1:55] that there is the American version of events, there's the Iranian version of events, [1:59] there's an Israeli version of events, and there's obviously a GCC version of events. [2:02] So you have to combine it all and then put it into context and see who's coming from where, [2:09] and we only tell our viewers once we've verified it with official sources, [2:13] with people who we can name, and then we tell them the information. [2:17] But as you said, it is a muddle. Just this morning, as I was doing these lives, [2:22] there was information that the Pakistanis are doing this and they've done that. [2:26] And 48 hours ago, there was information that they're out of the picture completely, [2:31] and none of that was really factual. So that's why you have to go back to our credible sources, [2:37] officials who— [2:39] who we recognize people who can put on air um and then give that information to our audience [2:44] that's why you tune in to al jazeera um so osama welcome to the take um you have just returned from [2:52] pakistan which is a country with an armed conflict on multiple borders and and we'll touch on both [2:58] during this discussion but i think obviously we need to start with the big one and that is the [3:02] u.s israeli war with iran um and now there is big news that the u.s and iran have received this [3:08] two-tiered peace plan that would call a halt to the fighting and what's amazing is it's been [3:13] brokered by the pakistan army chief so what can you tell us in this moment it's about 12 30 g [3:20] on monday morning monday afternoon well the time that you put this um on the airwaves uh [3:27] everything could have changed drastically uh but having said that i have been speaking to [3:32] various official sources in pakistan um we don't know for certain if this is 100 [3:39] true that this is a pakistani plan that is on the table what i can tell you from senior sources in [3:47] the pakistani government is that what pakistanis have been doing is not just carrying the messages [3:51] from the americans and the iranians remember there was an american 15-point plan initially that the [3:56] pakistanis took to the iranians they told them about how america wants iran to give up its [4:01] nuclear ambitions it's fissile material it's missile defense program it's uh influence in [4:07] the proxies and on top of that uh influence in the proxies and on top of that uh influence in [4:09] the proxies and on top of that uh influence in the strait of hormuz and not attack gulf allies [4:12] uh when the iranians came back and said well you know the americans will need to give us [4:17] guarantees that this is not going to happen again and they will be able to stop themselves and stop [4:21] israel uh there is no talk of the ballistic missiles program they want reparations for all [4:27] the damage that the war has caused and they want autonomy over the straight of hormuz so you see [4:31] two maximalist positions positions that are pulled apart uh from each other but then what the [4:37] pakistanis are doing is saying that why do we want to get rid of these people who are fighting against [4:39] why don't you guys come together somewhere in the middle? [4:41] Find a point that you can agree upon, [4:44] that you can sit across the table [4:45] and then talk to each other. [4:47] The Iranians say, well, we tried that twice, actually. [4:50] And every time we did it, [4:51] whether it was in Oman or in Geneva, [4:53] the Americans and the Israelis struck us. [4:55] They killed the top leadership of Iran. [4:58] And that is why it is going to be a very difficult position [5:01] that Pakistanis will find themselves in. [5:04] But if it does happen, if it does come to fruition, [5:07] it will be an extraordinary achievement for them. [5:10] Yeah. So this particular plan, it's a two-tiered approach. [5:14] I guess the idea is a ceasefire, [5:17] then it will be finalized days later, a couple of weeks later? [5:21] Well, the Iranians have rejected a ceasefire. [5:23] They say they do not want a ceasefire. [5:24] They want a comprehensive agreement. [5:26] They said this was a war that was imposed upon them, [5:28] and it will end on a time that they choose. [5:31] And you really have to think of [5:33] who are the Pakistanis talking to in Iran? [5:37] And it is not direct talks [5:38] between the Iranians and the Americans, [5:40] but essentially, [5:40] they are talking to all levels of society. [5:43] They are talking to the clergy. [5:44] They are talking to the diplomats. [5:45] They are talking to the military leaders. [5:47] And because so many people of the leadership [5:50] have been killed or assassinated by Israel and the Americans, [5:55] that now there is a real strengthening of their stance. [5:58] They feel to have made battlefield victories. [6:02] They've been able to resist the Americans and the Israelis, [6:05] some of the most powerful militaries in the world. [6:07] They have been able to resist the Taliban. [6:10] They have been able to defend themselves against the Taliban. [6:12] They have been able to fight in the civil war. [6:14] They have been able to defend themselves against the Taliban. [6:15] They have been able to fight for the people of the world. [6:16] The regime change has not happened. [6:18] The millions of people that were expected to come out on the streets [6:21] and topple the regime, that hasn't happened. [6:23] So they feel that they are in the driving seat now. [6:26] And when they, and when the Pakistanis take this to the Americans, [6:29] well, the Americans say, [6:30] well, we're going to bomb them to the stone ages. [6:32] It's the fifth of the energy supplies of the world, [6:34] but we are the world's largest producer, [6:36] and we don't care because this is a threat that they pose to us. [6:39] is going to be an uphill battle [6:42] to put any plan on the table, [6:45] because a ceasefire, somebody will have to give. [6:48] The Americans will have to convince the Israelis [6:50] to actually cease fire. [6:51] The Iranians will have to run it [6:54] through their fragmented chain of command now [6:56] to stop attacking people. [6:57] So it is a very difficult prospect, [7:00] but it just being on the table, [7:02] it takes you away from the nightmare scenario, [7:06] which has been painted by Iran and the Americans. [7:09] Okay, so just to recap, [7:11] the particulars of the plan seem pretty impossible, [7:14] but you do think it's significant [7:15] that there is a deal at the table, [7:17] that the two sides are talking, [7:18] and it looks like it's through Pakistan, [7:21] through U.S. President J.D. Vance, [7:23] Steve Witkoff seems to be involved, [7:25] and of course, on the Iranian side, [7:27] Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi. [7:30] Absolutely. [7:31] Just before coming to this show, [7:33] I was talking to a source, [7:34] and they told me that diplomacy [7:36] is done behind closed doors. [7:38] Effective diplomacy is done between direct parties. [7:42] It is not done in newspaper headlines [7:44] and leaks to the media. [7:45] And that is what the Pakistanis are telling me [7:47] that they have hopes for, [7:48] because the communication channels that they have [7:51] are still open. [7:52] Now, whether that transpires into an actual ceasefire [7:56] or a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, [7:58] well, that remains to be the question [8:00] as the U.S. President continues to extend his deadlines. [8:03] Remember, it was 48 hours, five days, 10 days, another day. [8:06] Another two days. [8:07] So it appears that there is definitely impetus there. [8:11] There's definitely potential inertia [8:13] that is being put into it by at least the Americans. [8:17] The question is, what do the Israelis want? [8:19] They have indicated they don't want a ceasefire. [8:22] They don't want any de-escalation. [8:25] Just as I'm speaking to you, [8:26] the breaking news that I was coming to you from the set [8:29] was that the Israelis have again hit [8:31] the South Pars gas field in Iran, [8:34] and that is crucial infrastructure. [8:36] Remember, it's not just about the production of gas. [8:39] That gas field shared between Iran and Qatar, [8:42] about 10,000 square kilometers, [8:44] it is not just a source of revenue, [8:46] but it is source of livelihood. [8:47] Iran is the world's fourth largest consumer [8:50] of liquefied natural gas. [8:52] So everything from industry to schools [8:54] to every aspect of society is based on that South Pars gas [8:59] that Iran needs, that the American president said [9:01] that he's guaranteeing Israel will not attack. [9:03] Well, here we are. [9:04] And Israel Defense Minister is saying that, [9:06] well, we've attacked it again. [9:08] And the last time that that happened, [9:10] it resulted in a direct retaliatory strike [9:13] on Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, [9:16] which accounts for 20% of all natural gas [9:19] in the entire world. [9:20] And it's not just Ras Laffan. [9:21] You remember what the Iranians did in response. [9:24] They hit Baku in Bahrain. [9:26] They hit the Kuwaiti oil fields. [9:27] They hit the UAE. [9:29] They hit the Saudi Arabian facilities belonging to Aramco. [9:33] And then on top of that, it was Ras Laffan. [9:35] So it appears that, well, it's not just Ras Laffan. [9:36] It's also, it's not just Iran. [9:37] Both sides are telling each other, [9:39] this is what we will do if you attack us. [9:42] And so far, the Iranians have been able to follow through. [9:44] And their stance is becoming more and more rigid [9:48] because you see six weeks into the war, [9:50] they're still hitting Tel Aviv. [9:51] They're still hitting targets. [9:53] The rocket flow has slowed, but has not stopped. [9:56] They're still hitting targets in the GCC. [9:59] So that's why they feel that they can continue this [10:03] bit-by-bit, you know, drip-drip escalation [10:06] and expand this war. [10:07] They can expand the war horizontally [10:09] and let the Americans and the rest of the world [10:11] feel the pain economically and in terms of their security. [10:17] And the clock is ticking at the moment [10:19] because US President Donald Trump has set a deadline [10:21] for this agreement. [10:23] This comes after posting this profanity-laden threat [10:27] to open the Straits. [10:29] Threatened that on Tuesday, when this episode airs, [10:32] actually, he could blow up more bridges, [10:35] more energy infrastructure. [10:36] This is something that Iran has already signaled, which would result in a lot more energy. [10:37] many signaled would result in retaliatory strikes [10:39] and infrastructure in neighboring countries. [10:42] From the Pakistani perspective, [10:44] which is, as we've discussed, [10:46] has been in this position as a mediator, [10:48] how is this war being interpreted? [10:50] I mean, not just, I guess, among officials, [10:52] but among ordinary people? [10:54] Well, there are two aspects to this. [10:55] First thing is what I asked, well, why Pakistan? [10:58] Because the Turks have a great line of communication [11:01] with Washington, D.C. [11:03] The Egyptians actually have a line of communication [11:06] with the Israelis, and the Turks also share a border. [11:10] But what I was told, that it is Pakistan [11:11] because it not only has a line of communication [11:15] with various aspects of Iran, [11:17] but it also has the weight of Saudi Arabia [11:20] and GCC countries behind it. [11:22] It has a unique position where its field marshal [11:26] is called my favorite field marshal by Donald Trump, [11:29] and its foreign minister can, in the same breath, [11:31] go and visit the Chinese capital as well. [11:34] And it is a neighbor of Iran, [11:35] and that is why, [11:36] any escalation in Iran is going to have [11:39] a direct impact on Pakistan. [11:40] So that answers the question of why Pakistan? [11:44] The question of what Pakistan brings to the table [11:47] is also because of all of these factors combined, [11:50] because of the Shia population within Pakistan [11:53] that has close ties with Iran, [11:54] but a majority of a Sunni population, [11:56] which has very strong ties with Saudi Arabia. [11:58] I asked a security official, what do you make of this? [12:02] And where does Pakistan stand if the Saudis invoke their defense? [12:05] I've had a lot of talks with security officials [12:07] about their mission of calling the SAA [12:10] the national defense agreement, [12:11] to which I was told that how do you know [12:15] that we haven't invoked that agreement already, [12:17] and diplomacy is our first line of defense. [12:22] More with Osama after the break. [12:25] So, Osama, let's talk about the other conflict [12:28] that you have been covering, [12:29] which is this war between Afghanistan and Pakistan. [12:32] So just as a baseline for those [12:33] who are new to this subject, [12:35] Pakistan has accused the Afghan Taliban [12:37] of sheltering fighters who have been launching [12:39] to launch airstrikes and artillery exchanges [12:42] that have killed dozens, displaced thousands [12:45] since late 2025. [12:48] So in your reporting, you've noted that the parameters [12:50] of this conflict haven't really changed all that much, [12:53] but Pakistani attitudes towards the Taliban [12:56] have changed considerably. [12:58] Can you expand on that? [13:00] Well, this is the first time that you're hearing [13:02] from Pakistani officials about their stance on Afghanistan, [13:06] which is really hawkish. [13:08] I was talking to some officials about the situation [13:12] in Afghanistan, and I asked them, [13:16] you have a long history with the Taliban, right? [13:18] And there's been this strategy that Pakistan is accused [13:21] of having good Taliban versus bad Taliban. [13:24] And to my surprise, this time it was a very blunt response. [13:29] A security official told Al Jazeera [13:31] that only good Taliban is a dead Taliban. [13:34] And that is what Pakistan believes in now. [13:38] It is on a path where it has shown Afghanistan's leadership [13:43] under the Taliban leniency and diplomacy [13:47] in the last four years, [13:48] and it is no longer going to be the case. [13:50] So either they change attitudes or quote, [13:53] Pakistan will change it for them. [13:55] And that to me is a sea change of attitudes [14:00] of how Pakistan sees Afghanistan [14:02] and how Pakistan has been reacting towards Afghanistan. [14:05] Because Afghanistan in the last 30, [14:08] 40 years has been reliant on Pakistan. [14:11] Remember before all of the refugee crisis, [14:13] the world's largest refugee crisis was out of Afghanistan [14:17] into Pakistan for decades. [14:19] Pakistan has expelled more than a million of those refugees. [14:22] In the last months, you've seen extreme fights [14:25] break out on the border. [14:27] And these attitudes are changing tremendously. [14:29] So it appears that now there is very little room [14:33] for diplomacy and it is the guns that are doing the talking. [14:38] The hardening of these attitudes, [14:39] in Pakistan, that bone-chilling quote you said earlier, [14:43] only good Taliban is a dead Taliban. [14:46] I mean, it must be detrimental to the prospects [14:49] of a prolonged peace, but talks are happening, right? [14:52] What is the latest around peace talks? [14:55] Well, the latest is that there was a low-level interaction [14:58] which happened between the Pakistanis and the Afghans [15:03] in Beijing, because the Chinese are interested [15:05] to bring this to an end and find an amicable solution. [15:09] Because China sees this as detrimental [15:12] to not just Pakistan's security, [15:13] to its China-Pakistan economic corridor, [15:16] but also to the potential of the mines and minerals [15:20] that it sees in Afghanistan as well. [15:22] It's not just China. [15:23] The Turks have approached Pakistan and the Afghans [15:28] to try and bring an end to this. [15:29] The Qataris have been involved in this as well. [15:32] And the Pakistanis say that their stance is very clear. [15:35] And on background, somebody told me that this could be two, [15:39] two things. [15:39] One is they don't want to give up this leverage [15:42] of the Pakistani Taliban that the Afghan Taliban has. [15:44] And second, administratively, they [15:47] might not have the capability and capacity [15:49] to go after these groups. [15:50] Remember, Afghanistan, since the takeover of the Taliban, [15:54] the sole focus of this new entity in power, [15:58] the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, [16:00] has been to make sure that there is unity amongst its ranks, [16:04] that it doesn't show any fissures. [16:06] Because if that happens, then it is going to become [16:08] another war of warlords rather than one monolith ruling it. [16:13] So let's wrap up, Osama. [16:14] Let's end with sort of a bigger picture for Pakistan. [16:18] You've spent the past days talking [16:20] to officials in Islamabad. [16:22] And I just wonder how they look at the map these days. [16:26] I mean, talk about a complicated neighborhood, right? [16:28] On one side, you have the Islamic Republic in Iran. [16:31] You have Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. [16:33] On the other side is Modi's India, [16:36] the unresolved Kashmiri crisis. [16:38] You have China to the north. [16:39] You have the Islamic Republic in Iran. [16:39] You have the Islamic Republic in Iran. [16:39] You have the Islamic Republic in Iran. [16:39] They have not one, but two insurgencies [16:42] basically happening within their borders in Balochistan [16:44] and in the Pashtun tribal areas. [16:47] Things could escalate all over the place. [16:49] How does Islamabad possibly juggle all of this? [16:53] Well, with great difficulty, I imagine. [16:56] Because if you sit down, and as you laid out quite aptly [17:01] what the situation is for Pakistan to tiptoe around, [17:06] you did not cover the economic front, because Pakistan, [17:09] you did not cover the economic front, because Pakistan, [17:09] is struggling economically as well. [17:11] It has been asking for the International Monetary Fund [17:14] to bail out its economy. [17:15] It has been asking rich Gulf neighbors to park their money. [17:19] It is poised to return about $3 billion or so [17:24] to the United Arab Emirates that it has had for a number of years. [17:27] So all of that combined with a burgeoning population, [17:31] Pakistan finds itself in a real bind. [17:35] But I think there's opportunity in crisis, [17:38] and I think that is where, you know, [17:39] the Pakistanis are going from day to day. [17:43] In the last few years, there's some sort of cohesion [17:47] between the military and the political government, [17:51] where they've been able to get some dividends [17:53] with their relationships with Washington, [17:55] with China, with Gulf states. [17:57] They've been signing more deals. [17:58] They've been bringing in some investment. [18:01] They've been trying to put their economy back on track. [18:04] But again, the questions that you just mentioned remain. [18:06] They cannot change their neighborhood. [18:09] They cannot completely control a population [18:12] which continues to grow and an economy which has been faltering [18:16] and an energy crisis, which seems to be knocking on their doorsteps. [18:20] We've seen the lines, the queues at gas stations. [18:23] 80% of Pakistan's energy comes from the Gulf. [18:26] It has been able to, through diplomacy, secure those supply lines. [18:30] So it still has the pre-crisis level of gas and petrol. [18:35] But that does not mean that the danger is over. [18:37] You're seeing the price of oil. [18:39] You're seeing the price of oil. [18:39] You're seeing the price of oil. [18:39] You're seeing the price of fuel, just petrol, [18:41] are shooting up by nearly 77% in the last five, six weeks. [18:46] And that is based on oil hovering around $100 a barrel, [18:50] with analysts predicting that it could go up to $200 a barrel [18:53] if the crisis continues to prolong. [18:56] Then you can only imagine what it would do to societies in Pakistan, [19:00] to the economy of Pakistan, to the infrastructure of Pakistan. [19:03] Remember, it's a huge country with a massive population, [19:07] with many mouths to feed, and it sees [19:09] that the only way out is through diplomacy, through dialogue. [19:13] But again, all of these crises can't be solved via dialogue. [19:16] And that's why you're seeing an uptick in violence, [19:19] whether it comes to the Baloch insurgency or Pakistan dealing with the Taliban. [19:24] Okay. Osama bin Javid, thank you for coming on The Take today. [19:27] Thank you for having me.