Why is Hungary's election of such international importance? — Inside Story

[0:00] Opinion polls in Hungary suggest long-time Prime Minister Viktor Orban has a battle on his hands in Sunday's election. [0:08] The outcome will be keenly awaited in Washington, Moscow, Kiev and Brussels. [0:12] So why is this election so important outside of Hungary? [0:16] This is Inside Story. [0:33] Hello, welcome to the programme. I'm Tom McRae. [0:35] He's got the support of the White House, the Kremlin and Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu. [0:40] But whether or not Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban remains in power will depend on the Hungarian people. [0:45] They will vote in a parliamentary election on Sunday in a contest as eagerly watched abroad as it will be at home. [0:52] Orban is at odds with most of the European Union in its support for Ukraine against Russia, vetoing a major aid package for Kiev. [1:01] He's also in dispute with the EU over democratic reforms, with Brussels withholding $20 billion in funding. [1:08] Opinion polls suggest his main opponent, Peter Madja, one of Orban's former allies, is ahead. [1:14] So why is this election of such international significance? [1:18] And what will be the implications of the outcome? [1:21] We'll discuss all of this with our guests shortly. [1:23] But first, this report from Imran Ula Khan. [1:28] Hungarians go to the polls on Sunday. [1:32] It's an election that could see the fall of one of Europe's longest-serving prime ministers and an internationally polarising figure. [1:38] The current man in charge, Viktor Orban, the far-right leader, has been a staunch critic of the European Union. [1:46] He's stood against the bloc's migration policies and aid for Ukraine. [1:51] An ally of President Vladimir Putin, Orban has accused Kiev of stopping the flow of Russian oil coming into the country. [1:57] Ukraine has denied that, saying a Russian drone attack damaged the pipeline that funnels oil to Hungary in January. [2:06] Inside Hungary, Orban has accused the opposition of trying to use outside forces to disrupt the elections, which they deny and say is without evidence. [2:15] They are colluding with foreign secret services, threatening our followers with violence, and calling out election fraud with fabricated accusations even before the election. [2:28] They are organising demonstrations and chaos even before your votes have been counted. [2:33] But the prime minister has received significant support from the international right. [2:38] He's hosted Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, in Budapest a year ago, defying an international criminal court warrant seeking the Israeli leader's arrest for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. [2:54] Orban's anti-immigration stance and attacks on independent media have landed him an especially strong ally in Washington, with U.S. President Donald Trump endorsing Orban ahead of the election. [3:06] And on Tuesday, Vice President J.D. Vance visited Budapest. [3:10] He spoke at a pre-election rally, applauding the prime minister, and accusing outside actors of interfering in Hungarian politics. [3:18] I've also been told that the vice president of the United States coming and saying that Viktor Orban is doing a good job and is a helpful statesman to the cause of peace, that's foreign influence. [3:28] But what's not foreign influence is when the European Union threatens billions of dollars withheld from Hungary because you guys protect your borders. [3:37] Viktor Orban has been the longest serving prime minister in modern Hungarian history. [3:42] He first came into power in 1998 for four years. [3:46] His current tenure as prime minister began in 2010 and has continued for 16 years, with his Fidesz party winning elections in 2014, 2018 and 2022. [3:58] The main opposition TISA party is led by Peter Magyar. [4:04] He's a former Orban ally, but has been focusing on domestic issues like cracking down on corruption. [4:10] He's also vowed to end dependence on Russian energy. [4:14] Regardless of how voters cast their ballots on Sunday, the results will be watched closely outside of Hungary by the prime minister's opponents and his allies. [4:22] Ronald O'Khan, Al Jazeera, for Inside Story. [4:30] Okay, let's bring in our guests. [4:31] Now, in Doha is Gabor Schering, a former member of the National Assembly of Hungary. [4:37] In Budapest is Istvan Kish, a political scientist, director of the Danube Institute and former political advisor in the prime minister's office of Hungary. [4:46] And in Philadelphia is Daniel Kellerman, a McCourt chair at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University. [4:53] Thank you so much for being with us here on Inside Story today. [4:56] We do appreciate your time. [4:59] Istvan, if I can begin with you. [5:00] Orban's been in power for 16 years. [5:03] There is a gap in the polls. [5:05] He's behind in almost all of them. [5:07] As his grip finally appears to be slipping ahead of Sunday's vote, what has gone wrong for him? [5:17] Well, I think it's, you know, it's true that it's the most contested elections we had in basically 20 years. [5:23] I believe there's several main reasons for that. [5:28] One is that the opposition has been always much more divided in the past. [5:32] So Peter Magyar was quite clever in a sense that he, from the very beginning, clearly said he's not making deals with what he called the old opposition because of their baggage. [5:42] And because of his popularity, basically, most of the opposition parties eventually didn't run in the election. [5:51] We still have two, well, basically three, because we have the far right party as well, who are still running. [5:56] But compared to previous elections, where they're either running separately or kind of jointly together, now we have one main party which would collect all the opposition votes, which is different from the previous elections. [6:11] Also, I would think that in the past elections, basically, Orban could claim that most of the people felt that the country is doing better than it did four years ago. [6:24] So, economically, the country was always doing better than it did before. [6:28] And if you look at the polls of what people think, that was the case as well. [6:34] Now, that's a bit different. [6:35] In the past four years have been economically more difficult. [6:39] There's several reasons for that. [6:40] But nobody denies that the past four years hasn't been the best economically for the country. [6:46] And now the population itself is much more divided in how they see the economic situation of the country as well. [6:54] So, I think because of these two main reasons, this election is now much more close than previous elections have been. [7:03] Okay, Gabor, how do you assess things in Hungary right now and why do you think that people are turning away from Orban at this point in time? [7:14] Well, I think it's really a convergence of economic, political and moral exhaustion of the regime. [7:21] Perhaps the economic is the most fundamental one, which has culminated in the last four years, but it has deeper roots. [7:30] And if I just may give one kind of figure that really summarizes the performance of the regime is that when Viktor Orban took power in 2010, [7:41] the average median household wage in Hungary was in the upper kind of middle category of East Indian Indian member states. [7:51] Now, these average real incomes are the lowest across Eastern Europe. [8:01] So, that is a clear economic failure, real wage stagnation, growing inequalities, growing wealth inequalities as well. [8:08] So, the regime has been really capable of creating new wealth for a really narrow stratum of society, [8:17] while masses have been falling behind these newly created elites. [8:25] And this has really kind of exploded in the last couple of years for many reasons, [8:31] but also a key reason is that these internal economic vulnerabilities of the regime. [8:36] So, these are not just crises imposed from outside, but the very kind of economic model that Viktor Orban has installed, [8:44] this kind of elite dependent model, has really run out of steam and that costs him politically. [8:51] Okay, so it's more the economic circumstances in Hungary at the moment, the cost of living, [8:56] the widening gap between rich and poor that is driving this election, in your eyes. [9:02] Daniel, can you just give us an idea exactly what's at stake here and why people outside of the country [9:08] should actually care about what happens in these elections? [9:14] Well, yeah, I think the Orban regime has become both a problem within the EU for the operation of the EU [9:23] and it's sort of symbolically become important. [9:25] So, within the EU, the Orban government has acted as a kind of Trojan horse for Russian influence. [9:32] We've all seen these stories about how the Hungarian foreign minister was speaking to Lavrov, [9:37] the Russian foreign minister, right after council meetings. [9:41] Hungary's been blocking sanctions or basically extorting funds from other EU countries [9:49] by threatening to block sanctions on Russia or aid for Ukraine, that sort of thing. [9:55] So, basically, they're wielding their veto to extort the EU and that's been a problem. [10:00] And then I think symbolically, you know, he's shown this model of democratic erosion [10:06] where he could attack judicial independence, the free media and cement his rule for years. [10:13] And that's been attractive to aspiring autocrats in Europe and around the world. [10:16] Just on that point, it's fun. [10:19] Orban spent years, some would say, rewriting the electoral rules, stacking the courts, [10:26] manipulating the judicial system, as well as trying to consolidate media power. [10:31] Given those structural advantages, how competitive is this election actually going to be? [10:36] Well, I very likely disagree with the two other gentlemen on this issue, [10:43] but I don't believe that the Hungarian electoral system is fundamentally different [10:48] than it was before Orban came into power, in a sense that it's still free and democratic. [10:55] So, basically, all the elections, there's been a good chance for the opposition to win. [11:00] I remember four years ago, there was a lot of talk. [11:02] Of course, you had polls during that time as well, which showed that the opposition might win. [11:08] It turned out that it wasn't as close as a lot of people thought. [11:12] But even four years ago, most people thought that Orban can be defeated in the ballot boxes as well. [11:18] And I think that's the case today as well. [11:22] If you look at most of the measures, I don't think any serious person would say [11:27] that the election itself is not free. [11:31] So, we had a big delegation from the OSC four years ago, and they had a report. [11:40] And what they said, it was free but not fair. [11:44] Of course, this can be debated. [11:46] But the election itself and how the election is run is not debated by anybody. [11:53] So, everybody thinks it's a free election. [11:55] And what the Hungarian people want will be reflected in the election results as well. [12:02] OK, Gabor, given the allegations of corruption in the country, as well as the allegations of outside interference, [12:10] will this election be free and democratic, do you think? [12:15] Well, free and democratic are, in part, really different things. [12:19] So, you can manage administratively an election that will tick the boxes and it will be sort of free. [12:28] But if you look at the broader playing field, then it's very hard to argue that it's a fair election. [12:36] And if we define democracy as something that's resting on free and fair competition, [12:41] then this is more like a competitive authoritarian regime and not a democracy. [12:45] Yet, there are elections. [12:46] So, it means as long as there are elections, the opposition can unseed the sitting government. [12:52] So, that's still possible and doable in Hungary. [12:56] But I don't think if you look at any of the existing measurements of democratic quality in Hungary [13:02] from the varieties of Democracy Institute through the Economist to the Freedom House, [13:08] it all shows a very steep decline in democratic quality. [13:13] And that is because of various reasons, the complete colonization of the media system by FIDAS [13:19] and its allied forces and oligarchs, the very unequal resource field that dominates the elections. [13:29] It's very, very hard for elective forces to compete with the kind of money that FIDAS is sitting on. [13:35] So, if you add all these up, the intimidation of civil society organizations, labor unions, [13:42] all the independent institutions are operated by someone allied with FIDAS. [13:48] So, I'm not saying it's impossible. [13:50] It's certainly doable. [13:51] And we'll see how the latest elections turn out. [13:55] But it's just not your normal free, fair, and democratic election. [13:59] It's more like a competitive authoritarian regime where Viktor Orban and the ruling party is very clear that, you know, [14:06] it's much easier to sustain a rule if there is a semblance of contestation, political contestation. [14:14] This is what authoritarian regimes look like around the world these days. [14:18] So, you don't have a full-on autocratic repression in these countries. [14:22] But you have a system where the playing field is tilted very much. [14:27] So, the opposition would have to win at least by 5% to be able to govern. [14:32] But even if they are elected to government, that's the second question what they can do. [14:36] Because FIDAS has had a constitutional majority up until now. [14:41] It could entrench its rule into the country's basic executions. [14:46] So, if the opposition wins only with a simple majority, there will be all these blocks that FIDAS has created that would significantly curtail the room to manoeuvre for the new government. [15:03] Okay. [15:03] We'll get to the repercussions of what might be if Orban is defeated. [15:09] But, Daniel, I want to go to you next. [15:11] We've obviously seen J.D. Vance in Budapest speaking at Orban's rally. [15:18] Can you just explain for people why the United States would want to get involved in this election? [15:24] Many people have accused J.D. Vance in the Trump administration of trying to interfere. [15:29] What is in it for the Americans? [15:33] Well, I think it's not so much for the Americans as for the Trump administration specifically. [15:37] And, as we know, the Republican Party under MAGA or under the Trump influences made very close ties with the Orban government. [15:47] They've held the CPAC conference in Budapest now a couple times. [15:51] And, basically, they see them as ideological allies and as a kind of model of how they would like to govern in the U.S. [15:57] So, I think they also see the Orban government as their closest ally within the EU and as someone who can try to promote their agenda within the EU. [16:09] So, that's what's at stake, I think, for the Trump administration and why they really want to see Orban re-elected. [16:15] Okay. [16:15] It's fun. [16:16] How popular is the Trump administration there in Hungary? [16:20] Because there's been some talk about J.D. Vance's trip actually hurting Orban's chances here in the election. [16:26] Well, I think because of the war in Iran, I wouldn't say that the Trump administration's popularity is very high in Hungary. [16:38] Of course, you have differences between the voters of the different parties. [16:42] So, I would say that Fidesz voters have a higher favorability of Trump than non-Fidesz voters. [16:48] I still think that on the grand scheme of the election, J.D. Vance's visit helped Orban more than it didn't. [16:57] So, Orban can very successfully in this kind of day and age where you have a lot of uncertainty in global politics, [17:07] Orban can show that he knows world leaders. [17:10] He can call world leaders, not just Trump, but of course, Putin, Xi Jinping, Netanyahu, Modi, other world leaders. [17:18] And he can steer a ship in kind of this difficult storm, while the opposition leader, Peter Magyar, doesn't have that necessarily clout and that experience which Orban has. [17:29] So, I don't think it plays a huge role in the election, but I think it could play a small positive role, [17:36] because Orban can show that he's a world leader. [17:40] He's somebody who people listen to, despite the relatively small size of the country. [17:45] So, if you think about it, it's fairly fascinating to see why this election is getting so much attention. [17:52] I mean, you had the Czech elections last year. [17:55] It's a similar size country. [17:57] I don't think it had half the attention we have now in the Hungarian elections. [18:01] So, it shows that Orban is punching above his weight in international politics. [18:06] And because we live in kind of uncertain times, I think that could potentially help him with the lead shot as well. [18:13] Okay, well, he obviously has an outsized influence, Gabor. [18:17] What about the European leaders? [18:18] They've obviously got a huge stake in what happens here. [18:23] They've already been accused of having influence on this election by J.D. Vance. [18:27] Why haven't they got more involved, though, do you think? [18:32] More recently, the EU has started to play kind of more of a hardball vis-à-vis Viktor Orban and his regime, [18:44] especially with regard to the EU funds and the withdrawal of EU funds. [18:49] This has really changed the last couple of years, I'd say, around the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [18:56] That's when the EU elites started to really distance themselves from Viktor Orban. [19:01] But it's true that throughout the 2010s, Orban was really effective in kind of playing EU leaders, [19:10] doing just enough so that he can get away with it and not kind of infringing on European interests that matter. [19:18] So really what I mean by this is really the lavish subsidies to German car manufacturing companies [19:26] and through that the very close ties to German conservative elites really helped Viktor Orban [19:32] to maintain a relative peace throughout the 2010s when most of the democratic backsliding took place in the country. [19:42] This has really changed in the last few years when the Ukraine war entered the picture. [19:50] And with that, the EU elites started to really double down on questioning corruption and backsliding [19:56] and the pro-Russian Hungarian foreign policy. [20:00] And that's when the situation really started to change. [20:04] And by that time, I think Viktor Orban has really miscalculated his ability to get away with his unique foreign policy [20:13] and kind of democratic backsliding. [20:16] And that has really costed politically as well because losing access to EU funds [20:20] means also losing the ability to distribute money throughout his loyalists. [20:29] And that has led to significant loss of support, especially in provincial, medium-sized towns [20:35] where you have a lot of small and medium-sized entrepreneurs, local economic elites who depend on those funds. [20:42] And they supported Viktor Orban until he was able to get those funds. [20:46] But now they are deserting the political camp because he's just not performing financially. [20:53] Daniel, I want to bring in Russia now. [20:55] Obviously, Putin and Moscow are going to be keeping a very close eye on what happens in this election. [21:01] How much involvement do we know that Moscow has had directly on this? [21:06] And what are the repercussions if Orban loses here? [21:12] Just before I answer that, I just wanted to say one thing, if I may, on the last point, [21:17] just to add to what Gabor said, which is I think one important thing in this election [21:21] in terms of the European influence is to keep in mind that in the past, [21:25] Orban had the support of the center-right in Europe. [21:28] He was part of the same party family with, you know, Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats [21:32] in Germany, as Gabor was talking about. [21:35] Now, in fact, he's in a far-right group, and the center-right in Europe is supporting the opposition, [21:41] Peter Magyar. [21:42] So that's an important shift. [21:43] Now, as for Russia, Russia has actively supported the Orban government, both through energy deals, [21:52] you know, oil, nuclear, that sort of thing, and in exchange for which Hungary, as I said earlier, [21:59] has acted as a kind of Trojan horse within the EU, supporting Russian interests in the European [22:05] Council. [22:05] And there are, of course, some stories about Russian agents in Hungary recently talking [22:15] about ideas for election interference, that sort of thing. [22:18] But honestly, I don't think that's the real issue. [22:20] I think that the key has just been economic support for the Orban government, you know, [22:26] in exchange for this influence. [22:28] It's fun. [22:29] Just staying with the EU for a moment. [22:32] I mean, Orban has bashed the bloc for many, many years now. [22:37] But the latest numbers actually show, including many of his own voters, that they want to see [22:43] a new approach when it comes to Brussels. [22:45] Has he miscalculated on that front, do you think? [22:48] And obviously, with so little time between now and the election, there's nothing he can [22:53] do about it at this point, right? [22:57] Well, especially, yeah, it's going to be a weekend, so it will be difficult to... [23:00] have major talks about these kind of issues. [23:03] But look, it is true that the support of the European Union is very high in Hungary. [23:07] It's generally high, I think, in the kind of former post-communist bloc. [23:11] There's several reasons for that. [23:14] There's a very strong historic reason, as we believe that we are very strongly part of [23:19] the Western civilization and have been cut off several times during our history, most [23:23] recently under communism. [23:25] So people feel that if we're not part of NATO and the EU, we're somehow not part of the [23:30] Western civilization. [23:31] So there's a very strong civilization element there. [23:34] But I think, on the other hand, actually, Orbán has been, in this sense, pretty clever [23:38] on playing on the Hungarian sentiment that we are a small nation who's been occupied by [23:44] bigger powers several times. [23:46] And I think the EU, for a long time, didn't really realize that by attacking Orbán and [23:51] Hungary, sometimes they actually help him, because he can make a strong case that, again, [23:57] a big power, a much bigger power is trying to force Hungary and influence Hungary to steer [24:03] in a way which the Hungarian people don't want to do. [24:06] So I think it's not as clear-cut. [24:09] The EU founds, blocking the EU founds, hurt. [24:13] So that's definitely something, as Gabor has mentioned, hurts the economy and it's not helping [24:19] the re-election process. [24:21] But the real question is how long the EU can keep that up, because we will have the new [24:27] financial term coming up and, you know, you would have to need anonymous work. [24:33] So I really think that they have been doing this since, actually, the previous elections [24:37] in 2022, obviously, I think, for political reasons. [24:42] And I'm not sure they can keep that up, because if Orbán wins again, then they might have to [24:48] choose a different tactic. [24:50] So I don't think it's really that clear-cut, how is this influencing the election and Orbán [24:56] strategy. [24:57] And I also think that, generally speaking, right-wing parties or populist parties, wherever [25:04] you call them, will gain increased influence in Europe in the couple of years coming up. [25:10] So we might see a very different Europe three or four years from now than what we see today. [25:16] And some of those politicians and parties actually might be more favourable towards Orbán. [25:21] Gabor, obviously, the Ukraine war has hung heavy over the whole of Europe. [25:27] What could potentially change here if Orbán loses, seeing that he has vetoed that $103 billion [25:34] EU package for Kyiv? [25:37] And just to get back to the last point, I think Viktor Orbán has really become symbolically [25:45] also a key figure in the European far-right. [25:48] And that's why the Hungarian elections are being botched from the world over. [25:56] And we see the declining popularity of Donald Trump, another key global symbol of the same [26:02] political family. [26:03] And if we could just get to the repercussions for Ukraine, Gabor, because we're running out [26:08] of time. [26:11] Yeah. [26:11] So with regard to Ukraine, it's very clear that the opposition is more supportive of the EU [26:18] mainstream position. [26:19] And the question is what Slovakia will do as the last remaining country if there's a [26:24] government change in Hungary. [26:27] So we'll see how that plays out. [26:29] But certainly one of the biggest opponents of unified EU action vis-à-vis Ukraine will [26:35] be out of the picture, Viktor Orbán loses. [26:37] OK, thank you so much. [26:38] We'll have to leave it there because we have unfortunately run out of time. [26:42] We do appreciate your time, Gabor, István and Daniel, for joining us here on Inside Story. [26:47] Well, thank you two for watching. [26:49] You can see the program again anytime by visiting our website. [26:52] That is aljazeera.com. [26:54] For further discussion, go to our Facebook page. [26:56] That's facebook.com forward slash AJ Inside Story. [27:00] You can also join the conversation on X. [27:02] Our handle is at AJ Inside Story. [27:05] Well, from me, Tom McRae and the entire team here, that's it for the moment. [27:08] Al Jazeera's coverage from across the Middle East and around the world continues in just a [27:13] moment.