Why experts remain pessimistic even if Iran negotiations resume

[0:00] Do you think there is likely to be a second round of talks in Pakistan anytime soon? [0:04] And are you optimistic about what may come out of them? [0:08] Anderson, I would never say I'm optimistic on anything regarding the Iran file. [0:12] I am hearing from people in the region that the sense is we're winding our way to another round of talks, [0:18] to a diplomatic path, and we'll see. [0:21] That is definitely the sense that's out there. [0:23] There's a lot of diplomatic work behind the scenes from mediators. [0:26] The Chinese are leaning on the Iranians, I'm told. [0:30] Who knows what's really happening? [0:33] But I think we are likely to see a second round of talks. [0:36] But I'm watching two indicators, and I think, you know, separate the signal from the noise and what's being said from day to day. [0:41] Number one is the ceasefire holding. [0:43] Right now, yes, I think that's very good. [0:45] Number two is this blockade of shipping from Iranian ports. [0:49] Is that working? [0:50] CENTCOM is very confident that it is. [0:52] Some of the ship tracker data suggests some are squirting through. [0:54] We'll have to see. [0:56] But then the third thing, is Iran going to contest that or not? [0:59] So right now, they're not. [1:01] But if they do, then we're back into a conflict phase. [1:04] So let me just kind of back up, Anderson. [1:06] Right now, it looks like the diplomatic path is getting some traction. [1:10] The ceasefire is holding. [1:11] That's good. [1:12] And all eyes still in the Strait of Hormuz. [1:15] Is the U.S. blockade working, keeping that traffic away from the Iranian ports? [1:20] That's going to really bite the Iranians. [1:22] And the second part of that mission, though, for CENTCOM is to open the international passages [1:27] to the Strait to give confidence to shippers to pass through. [1:30] And that still seems to be not happening. [1:33] So I'm keeping an eye on that. [1:34] Keep an eye on the Strait of Hormuz. [1:36] Is the ceasefire holding? [1:37] And do we have this second round of talks before the ceasefire expires next week? [1:42] Ambassador Sherman, I mean, given your expertise in this, you've actually, you know, led these [1:48] negotiations and that took years of planning and more than 15 months of actual negotiations. [1:54] Does this, what do you make of the status of these negotiations? [1:57] I'm not sure if that's the right word, but or talks about having talks. [2:01] So it's good that when the vice president went with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner the [2:08] first time, he actually brought experts with him. [2:10] You cannot do this kind of a deal without a team of very seasoned people with a lot of [2:17] deep expertise, because even if you decide on one element, then you have to figure out [2:22] how you implement it. [2:23] Then you have to figure out how you verify it and monitor it and make sure it happens. [2:27] And if you're trying to do, as the vice president said, a grand bargain, it means you have all [2:33] of these elements on the table. [2:34] They fight against each other. [2:36] You know, it could be that Iran would say, we'll give Hezbollah a little less money, but [2:41] we want to only suspend enrichment for two years. [2:45] So it all combines. [2:47] And one of the things I think is quite critical if they go back to the negotiating table, and [2:52] I hope they do, but not for just 20 hours. [2:54] It's going to take days, weeks, probably months to get it all done if it's possible. [2:59] I hope that they realize that nothing should be agreed until everything is agreed. [3:05] It was the watchword of our negotiation, and it was critical to make sure that we had all [3:11] of the T's crossed and all the I's dotted. [3:14] So just to be clear, nothing agreed until everything is agreed. [3:18] So no point by point, okay, that's a deal on this subject, and now we're going to do this, [3:22] because it's a jigsaw puzzle that all has to fit together. [3:25] Absolutely. [3:27] It's a jigsaw puzzle that has to all be put together. [3:30] And one of the problems that I think the Trump administration has had is two things. [3:36] One, they've wanted at the beginning for Iran to simply capitulate. [3:39] That's why the president says, we've won, we've beaten them, we don't want them to win. [3:44] But quite frankly, in any negotiation, even with adversaries, even if you find people odious, [3:49] they have to feel like they got something, or you can't get the deal done. [3:54] So call it winning, call it negotiating, call it giving them something, but there has to [4:00] be a deal. [4:01] And a deal means both sides have to get something out of it. [4:04] And secondly, I think the president has believed he can get this done in one big fix. [4:11] And that's not how this process works. [4:13] I wish it did. [4:14] The last 28 days of the 2015 negotiation I spent, John Kerry spent 19 days in a hotel [4:22] nonstop to get to the final elements of this deal. [4:26] Oh. [4:27] Scott, are you optimistic at all? [4:29] I mean, do you think this is going to lead somewhere? [4:32] I'm not very optimistic. [4:35] I think there's two kind of core questions here. [4:37] Who benefits from dragging the process out? [4:40] Time is on the side of Iranians. [4:42] Absolutely. [4:43] It's on the side of the Iranians. [4:44] And the second is, which side can endure the most suffering and most pain? [4:48] And I think clearly the Iranians have proven that as well. [4:54] This idea that the blockade, so ships can't come, I mean, this is a country that's been, [4:58] had tens of thousands of bombs dropped on it in the last month. [5:01] The idea that it's going to somehow, you know, kneel down because of the, of the naval blockade, [5:06] I think is, is silly. [5:07] And I think- [5:08] Right. [5:09] The idea that this is now an economic, potentially economic pain being inflicted on Iran. [5:15] We've inflicted military pain on them. [5:18] That hasn't really worked to cow them or have a regime change that actually results in something. [5:24] You don't think economic pain is going to do to that. [5:25] The economy was already in a shambles. [5:28] That's what led to the, to the demonstrations and the killings in January. [5:33] I think that, I think that the regime, I think if you go back and I think it's important [5:37] to look at what happened in January, that the regime, there was demonstrations against [5:41] the regime for 10 days that were largely peaceful. [5:44] They were metastasizing in size. [5:47] Finally the government reached a point where it thought it was going to go down. [5:50] So they, they killed 30 to 40,000 people in one weekend. [5:55] They see their back against the wall and, and as, as Ms. Sherman said, they need to feel [6:00] like they're getting something out of any sort of negotiated settlement. [6:04] And they don't have much to give because they could be overthrown by the people and they [6:10] don't, you know, they'd be slaughtered. [6:12] Yeah. [6:13] Brett, I mean, do you, the, this is not a popular government and that obviously there [6:17] is support there, but there's, you know, 93 million people. [6:20] There's a lot of people, a lot of different opinions. [6:23] Is this a government that's motivated to, to really make some sort of a deal or what would [6:28] be their major motivation? [6:29] I have to say, I, I, I largely agree with the thrust of what Scott's saying. [6:33] I also have to, we have to have some humility. [6:34] We really don't know what's happening inside Iran. [6:37] And if you, if we were on this two weeks ago, Anderson, and someone had said, we are going [6:43] to see a ceasefire. [6:45] And then the highest level talks between Iran and the United States since the 1979 revolution [6:50] with Galaba meeting face to face with the vice president and with the IRGC there and [6:54] the entire team from Iran there, I would have said that's highly unlikely to happen because [6:59] I did not think the first move of whoever rises to the leadership ranks in Tehran after [7:03] this conflict would reach out to the great Satan. [7:06] The one thing that going back to hominy, they said you cannot do, they really just shattered [7:10] a taboo. [7:11] So it's fairly extraordinary that that happened and that these talks are still ongoing. [7:15] So I don't know. [7:16] I agree. [7:17] It'll take time. [7:18] Do you read that as a sign of, of, I mean, potential desperation or we don't know? [7:22] So you can read it two ways. [7:23] You could say they feel so strong that they're coming to show that we have the strength and [7:29] we're going to, we're finally going to meet with you face to face at the most senior [7:32] level. [7:33] So they're going to be looking for, or they're in some trouble, Anderson, and they actually, [7:37] they know it. [7:38] And we are offering significant sanctions relief, as I understand it, which is something [7:41] they want. [7:43] And to, to, you know, they can do a violent crackdown, but they also want to, I think, [7:47] alleviate some of the economic strain in their population. [7:49] Yeah. [7:50] So we have some cards to play. [7:51] Ambassador, if memory serves me correct, and correct me if I'm wrong, one of the criticisms [7:55] of President Trump initially against the deal that, that you were intricately, you know, [8:01] brought about in 2015 was money's paid, you know, money that Iran got out of it. [8:09] It sounds like any deal we make now, there's going to be a lot of money involved as well. [8:16] There's going to be a lot of money involved. [8:19] And there's even been some discussion that there would be money that would be given in [8:23] advance as sort of a sweetener to get a deal done. [8:27] I think both Brett and Scott are correct. [8:30] There is economic pain, for sure, in Iran. [8:35] But the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is clearly in charge right now. [8:41] Yes, they want to make sure that there is a future for their country. [8:46] But I do think they feel that this is existential for them. [8:49] They lived through the Iran-Iraq War for eight years being just hammered, and they stuck [8:55] with it. [8:56] They are a culture of resistance. [8:58] I think they may come to the table, but they're not going to give up the things that they believe [9:02] are part of their national pride. [9:05] And that includes, in their view, a right to enrich, in their view to have a missile [9:10] program, in their view to have people in the region, their proxies help them out. [9:15] Whether we scale that back, whether we get to a place where we feel there's greater security [9:20] about their commitment to not having a nuclear weapon, all of those things are important. [9:25] But it's going to be tough, tough negotiating. [9:29] And the UAE is in China, trying to get China to put pressure on Iran. [9:34] I'm sure that's happening. [9:36] The President of the United States is headed to China in May. [9:38] There's a lot of incentive for him to get this to a better place. [9:42] Yeah. [9:43] Pride has a seat at the table. [9:44] Investor Sherman, thank you. [9:45] Brett McGurk, Scott Anderson as well. [9:47] Okay. [9:47] Let's go. [9:49] That's good. [9:50] Go ahead. [9:51] You can click the [9:52] I'm looking atホ [9:59] to start-to-off here. [10:03] You can quickly. [10:04] We just leave a pizza at 11. [10:04] So, we'll update the