Why did Trump say Cuba is next?

[0:00] And who will be next? [0:00] Cuba. [0:02] Yeah, Cuba's going to be next. [0:03] As the world's attention is fixed on Iran, [0:06] Donald Trump is already thinking about what comes next. [0:10] Cuba's a mess. [0:11] It's a failing country. [0:12] And they're going to be next. [0:14] Within a short period of time, it's going to fail. [0:16] And we will be there to help it out. [0:20] What does Donald Trump actually want with Cuba? [0:23] And is this the end of the Caribbean island's [0:25] almost 70-year-old communist revolution? [0:28] From the BBC, I'm Asma Khalid in London. [0:31] And I'm Tristan Redman in Paris. [0:34] Welcome to The Global Story on YouTube. [0:38] Will, it's fantastic to have you back on the show. [0:44] It's always, always a pleasure to have you back with us. [0:47] Great to see you, Will. [0:48] Thanks for coming on the show again. [0:50] Yeah, it's really nice to be back with you guys. [0:52] I always enjoy coming on. [0:53] And you've just been in Cuba, Will, [0:55] which is not something I can say for a lot of people. [0:59] What was it like for you there in Cuba? [1:02] This was my third, [1:03] third trip since Nicolas Maduro was removed from power [1:06] in Venezuela on the 3rd of January. [1:09] And each one has been 10 days or so. [1:15] And with each trip, one in January, one in February, [1:18] now one in March, I've seen things get progressively worse. [1:21] And we were starting from a very, very low base. [1:24] We were starting from a base in which this was already [1:28] the biggest energy and economic crisis [1:32] the island has experienced. [1:33] Since the end of the Cold War. [1:36] There are plenty of people who say it's worse [1:38] than during the period immediately after the fall [1:43] of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the Soviet Union. [1:46] And so it is the most acute crisis the island has ever seen. [1:50] And you now see that so vividly in Cuba, [1:54] in every way imaginable. [1:58] The obvious ones I think are just, [2:00] it's just the lack of traffic on the streets. [2:02] You know, the sense of, you know, the lack of traffic, the lack of traffic, the lack of traffic. [2:03] The sense of a ghost town. [2:05] You drive past completely empty, closed petrol stations. [2:09] There's no fuel being pumped pretty much anywhere. [2:13] People can't fill up their cars. [2:15] And more importantly, those who have generators [2:18] can't fill up their generators [2:20] and are having to turn to the black market, [2:22] which is eye-wateringly expensive. [2:24] 10 liters of fuel, a quarter of a tank of petrol [2:26] in a stalloon car is $100. [2:33] The blackouts, the power shortages, [2:36] what does that mean for people's lives. [2:37] Rubbish on the street corners [2:39] because the garbage trucks can't come around [2:41] and pick it up. [2:42] People spend their days trying to track down food [2:46] with no public transport. [2:48] Food prices rising, [2:50] price gouging every which way you turn. [2:55] In terms of the visuals, [2:57] I feel like the most obvious thing is an emptiness, [3:03] a quietness to a city that would not perceive a lot of space and time as if it was себе. [3:04] As a city that was eatable, that would not perceive a lot of space and time as if it was eatable, that would not perceive a lot of space and time as if it was eatable, that would not perceive a lot of space and time as if it was eatable. Asit would seem solid. [3:04] city that would normally have bustle and of course once the full nationwide island wide blackout [3:12] struck and I was there when it happened there's not a light on at all so at night anyway it's [3:19] completely dark so there's a few places that have generators here and there a few big hotels [3:24] obviously are still running a few private businesses and the constant whir of generators [3:28] and then hospitals well on one of my recent trips I did go to a hospital because a friend [3:36] had been sort of had a health emergency so I helped with the car and we drove and I was in [3:44] a hospital that was largely in the dark they were able to to take the case partly because it was an [3:52] emergency but it's a very surreal situation you can imagine being inside as a patient who has to [3:58] stay and I'm in a hospital and I'm in a hospital and I'm in a hospital and I'm in a hospital and [3:59] The hospitals are struggling to keep the lights on. [4:02] The hospitals are struggling to cope, quite frankly. [4:06] Hey YouTube, so we actually recorded this episode last week, [4:10] but then Donald Trump being Donald Trump, the news evolved. [4:13] And we called Will back for this next question, [4:16] which explains why I'm wearing a different set of clothes [4:18] and I'm in a different location. [4:20] Will, the last time we spoke to you was back in January [4:23] and it was sort of in the aftermath of the US intervention [4:27] in Venezuela when the crisis with Cuba [4:30] was really kind of getting underway. [4:33] And I just want to quote you back to you, if you don't mind. [4:37] There was a thing you said to us on January the 26th [4:39] in our last episode. [4:40] You said, if Washington is successful in turning off [4:44] the supply of Venezuelan oil to Cuba, [4:46] then the island is in deep, deep trouble. [4:50] Now, the oil supply is not completely turned off, [4:55] but almost completely. [4:56] Is Cuba now in deep, deep trouble? [5:00] Yes, is the very short answer. [5:02] I think it remains in the grip of the worst economic [5:05] and energy crisis it's seen since the Cold War. [5:08] That was true even before Donald Trump imposed [5:11] this near total fuel blockade. [5:12] And that's the line that we've been calling it, [5:14] near total fuel blockade. [5:16] Will, we've seen reports this week of a Russian oil tanker [5:19] reaching Cuba, the first since January. [5:22] And this came after President Trump said over the weekend [5:24] that he doesn't have a problem with other countries [5:27] being in trouble. [5:27] If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, [5:32] I have no problem with it. [5:33] What is this really about? [5:36] Because previously, Trump has had a problem [5:38] with other countries sending oil to Cuba. [5:40] It certainly has, yeah. [5:41] He's threatened tariffs against all of Cuba's energy partners [5:45] if they sent crude oil to the island. [5:48] So it seems very strange. [5:49] It looks on first analysis, on one hand, [5:53] President Trump is simply saying, [5:55] look, one fuel shipment doesn't make any odds. [5:57] This country is still in dire straits [5:59] and I still have the upper hand. [6:01] And in that analysis, he is actually right. [6:04] One fuel shipment doesn't do much more [6:06] than provide a very short-term fix. [6:09] It's about 730,000 barrels of oil on this tanker, [6:13] which has made it to Cuba. [6:16] And that represents roughly in a normal period of life, [6:20] a week's worth of energy consumption on the island. [6:24] I think his take is that, [6:26] um, [6:27] this doesn't represent a meaningful lifeline. [6:30] So it's fine. [6:32] He can continue with his strategy. [6:35] But it is strange. [6:37] It did take me by surprise that they had softened [6:42] on this particular issue when all of the noise [6:44] up until this point was that none of that was negotiable, [6:47] that nobody should be sending fuel. [6:49] Now, this is where we have to start thinking [6:51] about the bigger geopolitical picture. [6:53] So even if this Russian oil tanker comes through, [6:57] I imagine some people listening to this conversation [7:00] might wonder, you know, isn't the oil embargo in and of itself, [7:03] which has been causing a huge strain on Cuba, [7:07] isn't it a sort of collective punishment on the entire [7:09] Cuban population? [7:11] What does your reporting suggest? [7:13] It's very close to collective punishment. [7:15] It feels hard to describe it as much else. [7:18] It is a policy that has been painted as designed to hurt the [7:24] uh, the top leadership. [7:27] And designed to force, um, regime change or at least weaken the [7:34] government so much that when it comes to the table to talk to the [7:38] Trump administration, it does so from a position of weakness. [7:41] But, um, anecdotally, it's hurting ordinary Cubans more than anybody else. [7:50] They are suffering. [7:52] It is survival. [7:53] A retired nurse said to me, we're not living, we're surviving, but certainly [7:59] the Cuban government is painting it as unjust, as cruel, as illegal. [8:03] Um, the Trump administration, as we know, doesn't see it that way. [8:07] They see this as the consequence of the fact that, um, Cuba paid for its oil to [8:15] Venezuela through security services and that the actions of the Cuban government [8:21] themselves have been illegal over the years, um, and that they are justified [8:26] in squeezing the island when it's down. [8:28] We've heard. [8:29] Yeah. [8:29] Yeah. [8:29] Yeah. [8:29] Yeah. [8:29] Yeah. [8:29] The state Hegseth in terms of the Iran example, talk about, we are knocking [8:34] it while it's down and that is our reign. [8:37] We are punching them while they're down, which is exactly how it should be. [8:42] I would say that the same thing, um, uh, extends to Cuba as, as one person [8:47] put it to me, uh, the place is drowning and the Trump administration [8:51] has put its boot on their head. [8:52] It's the biggest crisis, I think that the Island has faced arguably [8:58] since the beginning of the Cuban revolution, at least. [9:01] Yeah. [9:01] these terms. It's being squeezed in ways that I don't think any other president or any other [9:08] administration has done to this degree. What did you see when you were there in Cuba? [9:17] Are there protests? And who are people protesting? There's two things that I find fascinating. [9:23] One is purely as a journalist, people are now talking out, speaking out. For someone who's [9:29] been there, you know, for two decades working as a journalist and always had to kind of try and [9:35] tease people around just the government's talking points, suddenly you're getting ordinary people. [9:40] Can you stop in the street? You know, and one guy said to me, I see no light at the end of the tunnel. [9:49] It's beyond bad, says Rafael Suarez. It's a political, economic and social crisis. [9:55] But this has been decades in the making through bad policies. [9:59] And others. [9:59] As well have said, have said these things. [10:05] It's another headache, adds Italia Mataran. Neither the old or the young are working. [10:11] Everything's on hold or coming to an end. [10:14] So that's number one, that people seem to have lost all fear of speaking out publicly, [10:21] or many people have lost fear of speaking out publicly and posting things to social media and [10:27] The other thing. [10:30] Is that by and large, the anger is directed more at the authorities in Havana than the Trump [10:37] administration in Washington. [10:39] Now, I think that is because they don't see just the last three months and blame and blame Donald Trump. [10:45] I think there are people who do, obviously, and certainly the Cuban government blames Donald Trump. [10:51] But I think lots of people are saying we were already in this boat because of the way that the economy has [10:58] been managed because of the lack of investment. [11:00] Because of, you know, the decision to build large hotels and not invest in the energy infrastructure because the models no longer working for us and they simply won't accept it. [11:11] They won't change. [11:13] They'll just they just tell us to double down and it's easy for them who still have access to fuel, who still have lights on in their homes, their big homes, their air conditioned homes, et cetera, while we are the front coal face of all of this, you know, are going under. [11:30] So that, you know, frustration at the double standard of the political classes in Cuba is annoying people, is infuriating people. [11:42] Did you witness protests, Will? [11:44] No, there have been. [11:47] I got there just after a protest in a central Cuban town of Morón on the island. [12:04] That's very, very rare, very rare. [12:06] And we have seen smaller protests, what are called caseros. [12:11] Lasos, which is where people bang their pots and pans in a in a show of defiance because the whole neighborhood does it. [12:17] So no one person is is guilty. [12:20] But it hasn't gone from caseros or lasos to street protests. [12:24] And I think as and when we see that, then we'll see it really ramping up. [12:28] And of course, there'll be plenty of people who listen to this from the left position and say that's simply not the case, that the anger is just being directed at the Cuban authorities and not the Trump. [12:41] Don't get me wrong. [12:43] There is plenty of people very, very angry at the Trump administration. [12:46] They see this policy, they see it as cruel, unjust, unnecessary and hurting the poorest. [12:53] But they've been angry at Washington for the US economic embargo for six and a half decades. [12:58] And this just feels like the worst possible expression of it. [13:01] And what you do find is that there are those people who turn around and say, well, at least something's being forced, you know, at least at least this now has to get to the next level. [13:10] Well, Will, I mean. [13:11] Admirers of Donald Trump's negotiating prowess would say that what's going on here is classic Trump turning the screw, ratcheting up the pressure and forcing your adversary to the negotiating table. [13:26] And earlier this month, the Cuban president confirmed that Cuba is in talks with the United States. [13:33] What can you tell us about the talks? [13:35] Certainly, we know that there are talks now happening. [13:38] As you say, they've been recognised by the Cuban. [13:41] The person on the Cuban side who is the go-to contact for the Trump administration, we understand, is Raul Castro's grandson, Raulito González Castro. [13:54] Now, his father was very important in the commercial wing of the Cuban military, a group called Gallesa. [14:02] And he is the trusted confidant of his grandfather, 94-year-old Raul Castro, [14:09] who remains on this kind of issue. [14:11] The final decision maker, even at his age, as his advanced age and lack of a public role anymore. [14:21] He was his grandfather's bodyguard and is very clearly trusted by Raul Castro. [14:31] Raulito, who's known on the island as El Cangrejo because he has a six, he had a six digit on one hand. [14:39] So he's like. [14:42] Cangrejo means crab. [14:45] I love these details, Will. [14:46] I can't get enough of it. [14:47] It's the sort of, it's very Cuban, you know, if you're overweight, they call you gordo directly, you know. [14:54] Very blunt. [14:55] It's very blunt, very, very Cuban. [14:57] So he's got an extra finger. [14:58] He's El Cangrejo, you know, and Raul Castro has a son who's also been involved in negotiations, we understand, who has a lazy eye and it's called El Tuerco. [15:09] So it's El Tuerco and El Cangrejo. [15:11] What does El Tuerco mean? [15:11] Lazy eye. [15:11] What does El Tuerco mean? [15:13] It means lazy eye. [15:14] Oh. [15:16] Wait, so these are all Castro member families who are leading the talks on the Cuban side, not the president himself? [15:22] Well, that's crucial. [15:24] But my question is whether or not they're leading the talks or they're simply messengers. [15:30] If Raulito is simply relaying messages between Raul Castro and Marco Rubio. [15:41] And that's. [15:41] And that is the route that is happening. [15:45] El Cangrejo isn't seen as anybody who could really be a major negotiator here. [15:50] He's he's almost seen as a bit of a playboy, actually. [15:54] He's interested in kind of private business. [15:57] And, you know, nobody sees him as he hasn't had a political role. [16:02] He's been his grandfather's bodyguard. [16:04] And now here suddenly he is an important figure in terms of, you know, the negotiation in this extremely complicated moment. [16:11] But you're right. [16:12] It is coming directly from the Castros and not through President Miguel Diaz-Canel. [16:18] As far as we know, the suggestion has been from some reporting in The New York Times and elsewhere that Miguel Diaz-Canel is seen as an obstacle and that Donald Trump wants him removed. [16:29] If you speak to the Cuban government on this sort of stuff, they'll deny it because they need to show as united a front as possible. [16:37] The truth of the matter is the civilian government at the front of the Cuban of the Cuban regime. [16:43] Is not the decision making body. [16:47] It still goes back to to Raul Castro even now on something this sensitive. [16:51] Well, when I saw the reports that the Trump administration was in talks with Cuba, it it was confusing to me, in part because I don't have a clear sense of what the Trump administration wants out of these talks. [17:04] If we look at Iran, for example, we knew that there was talks around the nuclear program and later became about the ballistic missiles. [17:10] I am not clear what the Trump administration wants. [17:14] I am not clear what the Trump administration wants out of the talks with Cuba. [17:16] I mean, as you referenced a moment ago, we've heard Trump use some very blunt language about his intentions. [17:21] He told reporters recently at the White House that he could take Cuba, that he would have the honor of taking Cuba, whether he frees it or takes it. [17:28] But whether or not he takes it or frees it, I still don't really have a clear sense of what he wants to do. [17:37] And I second that because, you know, we spent quite a lot of time on the program talking about, you know, the lead up to the Venezuela intervention. [17:44] And there, you know, there are the world's largest oil reserves, which is obviously going to be kind of an elephant in the room, if not the actual direct reason. [17:54] But what is the attraction? [17:55] What's the interest in Cuba? [17:57] I think it goes something like this, that Donald Trump wants to be able to show victory or a form of victory, a win to Florida. [18:09] He does that potentially by removing Miguel Diaz-Canel from power. [18:14] That would look fine. [18:15] Very similar. [18:16] If he holds up Venezuela as a successful model, what did it involve? [18:21] It removed a sort of surgical removal of a president only to be able to work very well with his replacement and therefore complete control of a very profitable industry, supposedly towards a point where there'll be elections. [18:37] Would be enough to sate, if you like, the Cuban-American population in in Florida. [18:44] But if the. [18:45] Liquid pro quo is therefore control of something key in Cuba, the only one, it's not nickel anymore, it's not sugar, it's not tobacco, it is tourism, as you say, beachfront properties along the Caribbean in Baradero, the main beach resort. [19:05] Now, that is the motor of the Cuban economy. [19:08] It's currently very depressed and, of course, everything is very, very difficult at the moment. [19:13] So tourism has had a huge hit. [19:14] Nevertheless, it is the thing that generates foreign currency reserves, and I struggle to see how Raul Castro would sort of hand that over to the Trump administration after 65 years of of a revolution built on resistance to Washington. [19:33] It would be such a sort of capitulation that I can't see how that is negotiated. [19:40] So I agree. [19:41] I don't know what Donald Trump wants out of this. [19:44] In terms of a final result, unless that final result is the one that they've talked about publicly, which is basically the total and wholesale change of the Cuban government and the economy, which is exactly what that's wild, because then you're in talks to essentially negotiate yourself out of existence, why would the Cuban government be in talks to do that? [20:05] How can you really Turkey's voting for Christmas? [20:07] Exactly. [20:08] Turkey's voting for Christmas. [20:09] And I don't understand how the. [20:11] The. [20:12] The. [20:13] The. [20:14] The Cuban government can find some kind of third way of doing this that would be acceptable [20:23] in the other direction now. [20:25] They could put on the table some kind of major economic changes and then the removal of certain [20:31] key characters that might be sufficient for at least the oil to start flowing. [20:38] But we'd have to be talking about kind of a Vietnam style model where basically communism. [20:42] Yes. [20:43] Yes. [20:44] is is in name only and and not in practice well you mentioned marco rubio and he's an important [20:52] player in all of this isn't he because he he's he's of cuban heritage um he's leading the [20:58] negotiations on the u.s side if i'm not mistaken um will marco rubio insist on regime change in [21:08] cuba even if that's not what donald trump necessarily wants or has a huge interest in [21:14] even if that's not donald trump's principal priority this is why i like coming on the global [21:20] story you ask the proper the questions that truly matter we have we don't have space elsewhere in [21:26] short conversations to ask or answer that really is crucial and i really think it it is important [21:33] i i can't tell because of the way that he has built his dna his political dna on nothing but [21:42] complete regime change as being acceptable [21:45] those are his red lines those were always his red lines as a senator as the um as the head of the [21:52] foreign affairs committee the senate foreign affairs committee and now here he is in the most [21:58] important uh foreign affairs position in the united states with the opportunity to not just [22:06] shape policy but to make policy and he seems to have been okay for now in the venezuelan example [22:12] with the the plan to work with del [22:15] rodriguez at least for the time being we understand that they talk he apparently sees a [22:19] bigger picture there and is happy enough to go along with that and is clearly um not about to [22:26] cross donald trump when he has presidential aspirations of his own we understand so i think [22:33] there is a difference with cuba because of the personal nature of it that he might push harder [22:39] but we've already seen a slight softening of his language saying there must be regime regime change [22:45] then no there must be change i think he said but it doesn't have to come from us will you make a [22:50] public commitment today to rule out u.s regime change in cuba regime change yes oh no i think [22:56] we would love to see the regime their change we would like to that doesn't mean that we're going [22:59] to make a change but we would love to see it change there's no doubt about the fact that it [23:02] would be of great benefit to the united states if cuba was no longer governed by an autocratic regime [23:08] which is an odd line does he mean that they can create the conditions whereby the cuban people [23:12] would rise up will they be creating a situation that would be a great benefit to the united states [23:15] yeah i think cuba is a great cataclysm in that it's a huge problem for the united states as an [23:22] argument for fear of you know the lots of hate in the middle of this country i mean it's a huge [23:27] issue and it's a great back and forth between cuba and the united states and so on and so on [23:32] and so on that they're you know they're still on the front lines they're still trying to find [23:36] ways to fight back but of course it's that of course i think it's a real problem if cuba comes [23:41] into play and if he says well look at this that's a huge issue because it's a huge problem and so [23:46] much of what cuba is trying to do is to make the country go ah oh thank you for your kindness here [23:47] accept, you know, the decapitation of a Castro government, a complete removal and working with [23:53] something that simply doesn't recognise that. But they've shown themselves to be more pragmatic [23:57] because they don't want to inherit these basket case situations where Washington has to sort of [24:05] run it for years and years and years and years and years. And I think they're hopeful that that [24:10] won't be the case in Venezuela if they sort of ease into it with like-minded people of whatever [24:17] kind of political persuasion they are. If they can plot a path with people who are prepared to [24:22] work for them for the betterment of, you know, their own wealth and with, you know, making [24:30] things better under a Trumpian vision, then that's fine. Will that apply to Cuba with [24:40] that much history of a revolution? It's that much older. It's that much more of a personal question [24:47] to my mind. [24:48] I think it's going to be fascinating to find out. But I think we won't be that far away now [24:54] from finding out that, you know, that there has to be some kind of movement in due course. I think [25:01] everything's been sort of pushed away because of Iran. But if Iran ends on some level, if [25:10] epic fury is brought to an end, then I wouldn't be too surprised if we see Trump's attention turn [25:15] back to Cuba. As I say, in the meantime, there is this [25:19] euphorical gun to the head of the island because there's no oil getting in. [25:23] Will, thank you so much. [25:24] Will, thank you. It's always a pleasure. [25:26] I'm always happy to come on. Thanks for having me. [25:28] That's it for The Global Story today. If you liked our episode, then I've got to mention that our show, [25:33] The Global Story, is also available as an audio podcast. Find us on BBC.com or wherever you listen [25:40] to your favorite shows. Thanks for tuning in.