Who gets the blame for spiking gas prices? Enten breaks it down

[0:00] Breaking overnight, we did see a huge jump in gas prices, up $0.09 a gallon to $4.39. [0:06] It's up $0.33 in the past week. There have been big, big jumps all week long. [0:11] The political question is, who gets blamed for this? [0:14] CNN, Chief Data Analyst, Harriet, is here this morning. [0:18] So, simple question, who does get the blame, and how does that compare historically to past people getting the blame? [0:25] You know, the buck stops at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. [0:28] Donald John Trump, the President of the United States, and to a historic degree, look at this, blame for the increase in gas prices. [0:36] 77% say, Donald Trump, I look back at every president I could find on a similar question, which is, when the gas prices rise, who gets the blame? [0:45] Trump gets the blame more than Joe Biden did back in 2022, more than Barack Obama did in 2012, and more than George W. Bush did back in 2005, 71%. [0:55] Donald Trump takes the cake. He owns this mess, according to the American people, and it is quite the mess, because as gas prices climb ever higher, and the increase in the percentage that blame Donald Trump climb ever higher, his approval ratings go down into the basement. [1:08] So, presidents always get blamed, but he's getting blamed more. [1:11] He is getting blamed more, to a historic degree. [1:13] What about the partisan breakdown here? [1:15] Now, this is where it gets really stunning. [1:17] Okay, you know, we've seen numbers that are this bad for Trump, you know, disapproval rating on gas prices around this area, the percentage, blaming him for the increase in gas prices around this area. [1:27] But when you break it down by party, this is where it gets. [1:30] Oh, my. [1:31] You know, this is a Republican base that has been infatuated with Donald Trump for years. [1:36] But even here, blame Trump for rising gas prices, 55%, a majority of Republicans blame Donald Trump for gas prices. [1:44] That is the highest ever blame for gas prices from one's own party. [1:47] Then you see 82% of independents. [1:49] That's the highest percentage who blame the president of the United States among independents. [1:53] Not much of a surprise, 95% of Democrats. [1:56] But majority, majority, majority. [1:58] Rarely do you get the trifecta of majority from across the political spectrum agreeing on something. [2:03] But here we have it, the majority of Republicans, independents, and Democrats all blame Trump for higher gas prices. [2:09] And this is the highest ever from inside one's own party? [2:11] That is correct. [2:12] This is the highest ever from inside one's party. [2:14] When you look at the three other presidents that you have on your screen right here, that 55% that you see here, blaming the president from in one's own party, that is the highest ever. [2:25] Okay. [2:26] So the president says it's all worth it. [2:28] It's worth it to fight this war in Iran. [2:30] What do the American people say? [2:31] Yeah, okay. [2:31] You know, last night as well, Rick Scott, the senator from the great state of Florida, said the same thing. [2:36] It was worth it for him, despite the fact that we had the higher gas prices. [2:39] But do the American people agree? [2:41] They don't agree with the president of the United States, and they don't agree with the senator from the state of Florida. [2:46] Look at this. [2:47] Is the Iran war worth higher gas prices? [2:49] 64% of Americans say no. [2:51] Just a third say yes. [2:53] These are types of numbers we see consistently with this war over and over and over again. [2:57] We're not just getting little majorities. [2:59] We are getting vast majorities agreeing on something. [3:02] And here we have the vast majority say no, the Iran war is not worth higher gas prices. [3:06] As I said, it is a mess and is a mess in the minds of the American people of the president's own making. [3:12] They already say it's not worth it. [3:13] They already say they don't like it. [3:15] What are the prediction markets saying about where these gas prices are headed? [3:17] Yeah, okay. [3:18] You think it's bad right now? [3:19] The prediction market, the cash in prediction market, thinks it's going to get even worse. [3:23] Chance gas prices this year rise above $5 a gallon. [3:27] Look at this. [3:28] 74% chance say yes, they will. [3:32] You go back to April 17. [3:33] It was just 30% then. [3:35] So what we've seen is this number climb ever higher. [3:38] The bottom line is this. [3:40] The situation is getting worse. [3:41] You see it every day at the pump. [3:42] And the cash in prediction market, the people who are putting their money where their mouth is, [3:45] say it will continue to get worse mostly. [3:47] It's at $4.40 now. [3:48] It's got a ways to go to get to $5. [3:49] So we'll see. [3:50] We'll see, although it's climbing very quickly. [3:52] The average price of a gallon of gas is now $4 in this country. [3:56] And you know what? [3:56] And we're not going to have a nuclear weapon in the hands of Iran. [4:00] The gas will go down. [4:01] As soon as the war is over, it'll drop like a rock. [4:04] As soon as the war is over. [4:08] Okay. [4:09] But what is that exactly? [4:12] The four to six weeks the administration originally projected? [4:15] Because right now, the short term, I think the word to use was excursion. [4:20] That's entering week nine. [4:23] Gas prices hit a four-year high today. [4:26] A four-year high today. [4:28] And some places are flirting with prices nearly $5 a gallon. [4:33] Much of the United States is waking up to something of a gut punch when it comes to gas prices. [4:37] Overnight, prices jumped again by nine cents to a new national average of $4.39 a gallon. [4:45] That's up 33 cents from one week ago. [4:48] And prices are up really from coast to coast. [4:51] The average in my home state, Indiana, has risen $1.09 in the past week alone. [4:57] Joining me right now is Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, [5:01] to talk about where things are and where things could go from here. [5:04] Patrick, thanks for being here. [5:06] Yesterday, I was obviously tracking you and following you on social media, [5:11] and you said that Americans are going to spend half a billion dollars more on gasoline [5:17] over the next 24 hours, kind of all told, than March 1st. [5:22] I mean, wow. [5:22] Do you think gas prices can continue to jump this much and so often? [5:27] I mean, where is the ceiling? [5:31] Okay, not so much. [5:32] I do think that the increases will continue. [5:34] Thankfully, not at the pace in the last week. [5:36] You mentioned your home state of Indiana. [5:38] Some exceptional refining issues added to the extension of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, [5:44] which sent oil prices up significantly earlier this week. [5:47] That's why the majority of Americans are paying more. [5:50] Great Lakes states got a bit of an enhancement from refinery snags that developed over the weekend. [5:55] That is why all of those states in the Great Lakes from Michigan to Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, [6:01] experiencing a bit of sticker shock with prices that literally jumped a dollar a gallon in a six-hour time period. [6:08] So that is more focused on refining issues, which can happen this time of year. [6:13] But for the majority of us, we're all feeling the gut punch from the extension. [6:17] The president talking about extending the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. [6:21] We've already lost a billion dollars of oil due to the shutdown. [6:26] And now U.S. exports of oil and products are also hitting new records as countries start buying our oil, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. [6:35] The EIA reporting in the last week that nearly 100 million barrels of oil products left U.S. shores in the last week. [6:43] That is going to put more upward pressure on our prices in the weeks ahead. [6:47] I was saying you also expect diesel in the Midwest to hit $6. [6:51] What's the ripple effect impacts of that? [6:56] Well, it can't be understatement, especially as farmers are getting out to plant their crops ahead of the season in the next couple of weeks. [7:04] And as you mentioned, diesel now on the cusp of hitting $6 in many of those very significant agriculture states, [7:11] from Iowa to Kansas, Nebraska, Indiana, Illinois, all at the worst potential time. [7:18] Not that there's any good time for such a surge in prices. [7:21] But the wholesale cost of diesel on Wednesday alone soared $0.73 a gallon for those states, [7:29] indicative of major refining issues in the Great Lakes region. [7:32] Now, I'm hopeful that those refinery issues will be worked out here over the next week. [7:37] The national average may eventually see a little bit of relief, at least from that angle. [7:41] But my worry is, as long as the Strait of Hormuz continues to be closed, [7:45] oil prices are likely to face continued upward pressure. [7:49] If we don't see a reopening soon, it's possible that by Memorial Day or maybe July 4, [7:54] gasoline prices nationally could be getting close to the $5 mark. [7:58] And then there's, you know, we hear from all over the political spectrum [8:01] that the United States is more insulated than much of the rest of the world in terms of fuel shortages, [8:06] just because of how America is producing so much right now. [8:11] But oil pricing, as we have all learned and know, is global. [8:15] How insulated, then, can the United States be as this all continues? [8:23] Well, as you mentioned, we're relatively insulated. [8:26] The U.S. is the world's largest oil producer, but we're losing some of that insulation. [8:31] It's being stripped a little bit away. [8:33] As other countries are finding it difficult to find supplies, [8:36] we've seen dozens of very large crude carriers or VLCCs that carry products to the market [8:42] showing up on the shores of the Gulf Coast, waiting to buy and ship those barrels of oil that we do export. [8:50] U.S. oil exports hit a record high last week. [8:53] If you combine it all, more of the products are leaving U.S. shores than ever before, [8:59] and that is likely to put some upward pressure on us as well. [9:02] So some of that insulation is being stripped away, and that could continue. [9:06] I do expect even higher exports in the weeks ahead. [9:10] Patrick DeHaan, thank you very much. [9:12] Busy time for you, for sure. [9:14] With us now, CNN's David Goldman, who does such great work on this. [9:18] You've got a great piece up on CNN.com. [9:20] And the reason I brought up Ukraine is because back then, prices were higher. [9:26] Now, there are a lot of reasons to think gas prices and oil prices should be much higher than they are. [9:31] Yeah, I mean, let's be clear. [9:32] They are high right now. [9:33] Filling up a tank is about as fun for you and me as watching the Celtics last night. [9:37] Not fun. [9:37] Not fun at all. [9:38] So I think that it's important to just acknowledge that it is painful for many, [9:43] many Americans to fill their tanks right now, as you've said. [9:46] But it was so much higher in 2022 when Russia went to war with Ukraine and took 3 million barrels of oil off the market. [9:56] Now, the Strait of Hormuz has taken 14 million barrels a day off the market. [10:03] And the other thing to keep in mind is that when Russia took those barrels off, they actually didn't, right? [10:08] They had their shadow fleets, and so there wasn't much of a change at all. [10:11] So why is it that gas prices and oil prices aren't nearly as high as they were? [10:16] They were $5 in 2022. [10:19] Oil hit $1.22 in 2022. [10:23] We haven't really approached that yet. [10:25] Okay, so there's three things that are going on here. [10:28] The first thing is that there were 8 billion barrels of oil sitting around the world before we went to war with Iran. [10:37] That's a lot of oil. [10:38] Now, not all of that is accessible, but J.P. Morgan says that almost 600 million of them are. [10:44] And so it's created a little bit of a buffer for us so that even though a lot of oil is locked in the Strait of Hormuz, there is accessible oil. [10:51] That's the first thing. [10:52] The other thing is that there are some parts of the world that have literally run out of oil, right? [10:57] Cambodia, Myanmar, some parts of Asia can't get parts for plastics, right? [11:02] And so they can't demand something that they literally don't have access to. [11:07] That's kept a price cap as well. [11:10] And also the president's had an effect here. [11:12] Yeah, absolutely. [11:13] I mean, people believe Donald Trump when he says that we're going to get out of war. [11:18] That's kept those prices down as well. [11:21] And the oil market literally can't continue to keep prices higher. [11:25] They're worried they'll be holding the bag at the end of this. [11:27] Yeah, I mean, he has successfully talked prices down or at least kept them moderate for some time. [11:31] The question is, how much longer can that last if the situation itself doesn't change? [11:36] David Goldman, a great report. [11:37] People check it out on CNN.com.