Which states to watch as the battle for Senate control heats up ahead of 2026 midterms

[0:00] Much of the focus this midterm season has been on the fight for the U.S. House, with redistricting [0:04] battles dominating the headlines, but this week also brought new developments in the race for [0:09] the U.S. Senate. Our congressional correspondent Lisa Desjardins has more. The upper chamber with [0:16] direct power over Supreme Court and other nominations is increasingly in the 2026 [0:21] conversation. A total of 35 Senate seats will be on the ballot, but just 11 are rated as [0:27] remotely competitive by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Republicans in red are on defense [0:32] in more of those seats than Democrats, but Democrats need a long shot sweep, a net gain of four seats to [0:39] take control of the chamber. For a closer look, we're joined by Jessica Taylor, Senate and Governor's [0:43] Editor at the Cook Political Report. Thank you for joining us, Jessica. Great to be here, Lisa. [0:47] Let's start with Maine. We had some news there this week when the Democrat candidate of choice, [0:52] Governor Janet Mills dropped out. It now looks like progressive upstart candidate Graham Plotner, [0:58] who was an oyster farmer and a retired Marine, will be the one to face off with Susan Collins, [1:04] Republican, in the fall. He has brought a lot of passionate supporters to the table, but he also [1:10] has controversy, past comments, blaming sexual assault survivors, and also a tattoo that was also a [1:17] past Nazi symbol. He's apologized for those things. This is all a long buildup to a question. You had [1:23] rated this race in Maine as a toss-up. Is it still a toss-up? It is still a toss-up, and I think that's [1:29] because of the national environment. Susan Collins' seat, she's the only Republican defending a seat [1:35] that Harris carried. In fact, Republicans have not won Maine at the presidential level since 1988. [1:42] So it's been a while, and she's managed to win the seat. She's the only person, you know, [1:46] she's Democrat's white whale, really, that she's been able to hold this seat even at times when [1:52] Trump carried her seat in 2020. But, you know, Plotner is a risky choice. As you said, he brings [1:58] a lot of energy. They talk about sort of this movement that he's created there in Maine, and [2:04] ousting the sitting governor is not easy. But it's not just those comments that, you know, Mills did not [2:09] have the money to prosecute the case against him. Republicans will. They've already reserved [2:14] millions of dollars in advertising. So if this backfires against Democrats, that's a real problem [2:21] for them as they need to get these four seats. Let's talk about that. As we've said, there's four [2:25] seats that need to switch net for Democrats. And if we look at the map here again, there's roughly 11 [2:31] seats that you say are in play. But, you know, really, there's only three toss-ups at this point. [2:37] How realistic is it for Democrats to try and take over the chamber, to net four, [2:42] and where do they need to look? Democrats have to pitch a perfect game. [2:46] It is now within the realm of possibility, which I could not say at this time a year ago. [2:51] And that's because they've recruited successful candidates in states that I think could only put [2:56] their seats into play. Now, someone like the former Governor Roy Cooper in North Carolina, [3:01] that's a race we actually recently moved from toss-up to lean Democrats. So that gets them one pick [3:05] up if that race, if he continues to have a lead in that contest. [3:08] Ohio, former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, we've recently moved that race from lean Republican to [3:14] toss-up. He lost last cycle, but this is a much better political environment for him. And then they [3:20] were able to get someone like former Congresswoman Mary Peltola in Alaska. We rate that race as lean [3:26] Republican. So that race needs to move a little bit more onto the map for them to get to four. But [3:31] again, that means that they keep, that they are able to flip Maine. And then Democrats also, [3:36] they're playing defense in places. So upstate like Georgia, we moved that one to lean Democrat [3:41] as well recently. So that's the state that they're looking better in. But a state like Michigan, where [3:46] they have a very messy primary that's not going to be over until August. So there's minefields for [3:51] Democrats on this map still as well. [3:54] Let's talk about Texas. I know it is the perennial question for Democrats, almost a siren call for them [3:59] that they hope to win a Senate seat in Texas. But we have a vicious primary there. Does that help [4:05] Democrats? Is this the year, I hesitate to ask, where Democrats have a chance in the Senate? [4:11] I feel like for as long as I've been doing this, which is almost two decades, Democrats have been [4:15] talking about turning Texas blue. But if Paxton defeats Cornyn in that primary... [4:20] The sitting Senator John Cornyn, the Attorney General Ken Paxton. [4:23] Yeah. Then that makes it that much easier, because we're talking about, you know, [4:27] Graham Plattner's baggage in Maine. Ken Paxton has a ton of baggage. He was impeached. There's [4:32] questions. His wife, he's a very evangelical, has an evangelical base in the state. His wife left [4:39] him for biblical reasons, which were interpreted as he had multiple affairs. And so James Tallarico has [4:46] had a lot of money, the Democratic nominee, but he's going to need it because Texas is such an [4:51] expensive state. What's a state that's a little bit off the grid that you're watching that people [4:56] might not be talking about? Iowa is my canary in the coal mine. There is a really interesting [5:01] governor's race there, where actually Republicans polling even has the Democrat Rob Sand, who's the [5:07] state auditor up there. And that is an open Senate seat as well. Joni Ernst is retiring. Iowa is a state [5:13] that's been hit hard by tariffs, hit hard by soybeans that they haven't been able to trade [5:19] to China. So even though it's a very Republican state, could there be enough things that could [5:25] go right there? National Democrats would feel a lot better if it's Josh Turek, who's a four-time [5:31] Paralympian, two-time gold medal winner. He's in his wheelchair from spina bifida that he contracted [5:37] because of his father's service in Vietnam and Agent Orange. He's a state representative who's [5:44] won in red areas. They feel much better about that matchup against Ashley Henson, who's the [5:49] Republican congresswoman. So that's a state that could be more on the map. She's a strong campaigner, [5:55] but I think Republicans too, they can't take anything for granted. And that's a place where [5:59] I think they're looking as well. Exactly. It's the national environment. This all comes down to Trump. [6:02] It really does. And where his approval ratings are, where gas prices are, what's happening with [6:06] Iran in a couple of months as we get closer to voters going to the polls? [6:10] Jessica Taylor, as we get closer, we'll be hoping to talk to you more and more. [6:14] Excellent. Thank you, Lisa. [6:24] Support journalism you trust. Support PBS News. Donate now, or even better, [6:30] start a monthly contribution today.