What's the impact of rising tensions between the US and Iran? — Inside Story

[0:01] Tension escalates rapidly across the Gulf, despite last month's ceasefire. [0:06] An oil facility hit in the United Arab Emirates, Iranian boats attacked, while the US tries [0:11] to force open a shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz. [0:15] So what does this mean for hopes of an end to the Iran war? [0:18] This is Inside Story. [0:36] Hello welcome to the program, I'm Tom McRae. [0:38] Uncertainty across the Gulf region with the ceasefire between Iran and the US and Israel [0:43] under increasing strain. [0:45] The UAE blamed Iran for an attack on its oil facility in Fujairah on Monday, but Tehran [0:50] is neither confirming nor denying involvement. [0:54] Iran in turn accuses the US of breaching last month's ceasefire by trying to force open [0:58] the Strait of Hormuz and hitting Iranian small boats. [1:02] One of the world's most important shipping waterways remains largely shut, with only a [1:07] limited number of ships able to pass with US military assistance. [1:11] While Washington maintains its blockade of Iranian ports, diplomatic efforts brokered [1:16] by Pakistan appear to have stalled for now. [1:19] So what's the impact on the fragile ceasefire and the prospects of an end to the standoff? [1:25] What are the options for each side and the risks of further escalation? [1:29] We'll get to our guest shortly, but first this report from Amar Boateng. [1:36] A fire breaks out at an oil facility in the UAE on Monday, nearly one month after the US [1:41] and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. [1:44] The UAE says Iran fired missiles and drones, calling it renewed treacherous Iranian aggression. [1:51] Tehran's response has been ambiguous, saying it did not have a pre-planned program to carry [1:56] out an attack, and that the US and the UAE should be wary of being dragged back into [2:01] a quagmire. [2:04] In the Strait of Hormuz, there's more tension. [2:06] The US military says it fired on Iranian forces and sank several small boats on Monday. [2:13] Iran says two of those were civilian boats, killing five people. [2:20] On Monday, Iranian state media also broadcast this video of what they say is the Iranian Navy [2:25] shooting warning shots at US destroyers. [2:29] The US Central Command says it set up what it calls an enhanced security area in the Strait [2:34] of Hormuz, aiming to reopen a lane through the Strait in Omani waters. [2:40] That operation follows President Trump's announcement on social media on Sunday night. [2:45] He said countries have asked the US to help free up their ships. [2:48] He's calling it Operation Freedom and says the movement is meant to free up people, companies [2:54] and countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong. [2:57] Trump says it's a humanitarian gesture and warns Iran against interfering. [3:02] Meanwhile, Iran continues to try to use its leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. [3:08] On Monday, the Revolutionary Guard released a map showing an extended area it says is under [3:13] its control, far beyond the narrow choke point it shares with Oman. [3:17] Iran's Speaker of Parliament says Tehran understands well that the current disruption to shipping [3:23] and energy supplies is unbearable for the United States and that Iran has not even begun yet. [3:30] The recent events all point to a ceasefire under strain as the US and Iran continue to seek [3:36] ways to exert influence. [3:38] Amma Boateng, Al Jazeera, for Inside Story. [3:47] Let's bring in our guest now. [3:48] Here in Doha is Negar Motezavi, Senior Fellow at the Center for International Policy. [3:53] She's also the host of the Iran podcast. [3:56] In Washington DC, Jason Campbell, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, where he focuses [4:01] on international security, geopolitics and foreign policy. [4:05] And in London for us is Jasmine Al-Gamal, founder and chief executive of Avaros Strategies, a geopolitical [4:12] and communications consultancy firm. [4:14] She was also a Pentagon Middle East advisor between 2008 and 2015. [4:20] Thank you so much for being with us here on Inside Story. [4:22] We really do appreciate your time. [4:24] Jasmine, if I can begin with you. [4:26] We heard and saw there an idea of what played out in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday evening [4:33] as well as in the UAE. [4:35] Can you just explain exactly what you think this is right now? [4:38] Are we watching a deliberate escalation, a testing of limits? [4:43] Is it all posturing or is this potentially an end to the ceasefire, do you think? [4:47] Well, I think, you know, the term ceasefire has been applied such so loosely across the [4:55] region, you know, in these last two and a half years, we've seen ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon. [5:01] And now in this situation that have very, very quickly gone from fragile ceasefires to [5:08] to military action, which becomes very difficult to continue to call it a ceasefire. [5:13] However, the U.S. president maintains that Iran has not broken the ceasefire yet, which [5:18] gives you a sense of how he doesn't really seem eager to escalate. [5:23] But we can get into that later. [5:25] What's happening right now is one of two things, probably a mix of both. [5:30] One is the UAE in the last several weeks has gone from, you know, being one of the countries [5:36] in the Gulf that has had the closest relations and cooperation with Iran to being one of the [5:43] hardest hit, if not the hardest hit of the Gulf countries. [5:47] And that's caused, understandably, a lot of frustration, a sense of betrayal. [5:52] And contrary to how some other Gulf states have reacted to Iranian attacks on their territories, [5:59] the UAE has doubled down publicly on its strategic alliance with the U.S. and with Israel, which [6:07] has led to Iran targeting it even more, a very vicious cycle, if you will. [6:13] The other thing is that Iran is trying to increase the costs as much as possible on the U.S., on [6:21] the UAE, other Gulf countries, in order to get this conflict to a close. [6:29] If the stakes—I always say this is a war of timelines—which of the parties can maintain [6:35] the cost for longer, and which party will blink first. [6:41] And so I think it's important that we see everything that's happening now within the context [6:46] of those competing timelines. [6:48] Jason, we heard Pete Hegseth, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, give an update about Project Freedom, [6:56] basically saying that the U.S. blockade remains in full effect. [6:59] Iran does not control the strait at all. [7:02] There is a lane of safe passage that commercial shipping can flow through, and hundreds of [7:07] ships are lining up to do just that. [7:10] What if any of that is actually true, though? [7:13] Yeah, I think part of this, too, is the credibility deficit you have here in Washington among senior [7:22] leaders really throughout the course of this conflict, where you'd hear about the largest [7:28] bombing campaign of the war yet, and Iran almost begging for the resumption of talks. [7:35] And now all these ships are lining up to transfer through the Strait of Hormuz. [7:44] Given that in every one of these scenarios, either the hope for result was not met, or the over-optimism [7:52] became apparent quickly, I think we're still in a wait-and-see approach. [7:58] What I will say is that, unfortunately for the United States, the U.S. Navy, as currently [8:02] comprised, is ill-equipped to carry out this type of escort operation, certainly for a longer [8:14] duration. [8:15] It no longer possesses frigates, which are smaller, more maneuverable battleships. [8:20] That would be ideal for this. [8:22] It does not possess any longer minesweepers or mine-hunting ships for the region. [8:29] So it's using instead these guided missile destroyers that it appears will be less focused [8:35] on escorting individual ships than going through the Strait to provide a little bit of general [8:43] protection and to hopefully draw any threats from Iran to them. [8:50] And again, how long this can go on remains to be seen. [8:54] It like, you know, perhaps they might try to extricate some of the tankers and other ships [8:59] that have been, you know, largely trapped in the Gulf now for a number of weeks. [9:06] But I don't see that as is transitioning to some new normal where the Strait of Hormuz is [9:12] once again effectively open to international shipping. [9:15] The war has turned into a ceasefire of attrition by some accounts. [9:20] Neger, we've also heard that the Iranian statements have been deliberately vague. [9:27] They're not claiming responsibility or denying it for the for the missile sent towards and [9:32] drones sent towards the UAE. [9:34] Why is that? [9:35] To what end, do you think? [9:36] I mean, I'm still not sure because what we've seen as far as pattern and precedent is that the [9:42] Iranians, especially when it comes to the GCC countries, they telegraphed everything that [9:47] they were going to do even before the war started. [9:50] They actually went around and explained to everyone that these U.S. bases in the region [9:55] are viewed as part of an entire infrastructure that's connected all the way to Tampa, to CENTCOM, [10:01] and that they're going to be seeing these countries who host a U.S. bases if they're going to let [10:06] their air, space, land, the bases be used in a war against Iran. [10:11] They're going to be seeing them as complicit, directly or indirectly involved in the war, [10:15] and they're going to attack and retaliate in that sense. [10:18] And they did that. [10:19] They did that after the war started. [10:20] I mean, that was the reason why we know most of these GCC countries actually went to the [10:24] White House and tried to lobby against the war, warning President Trump that this is [10:27] going to happen, which apparently wasn't believed in the White House or wasn't taken seriously. [10:33] But it's just what makes me skeptical is that they had telegraphed before, they would threaten [10:37] and then they would take responsibility. [10:38] So it's just a little bit unusual. [10:40] I want to be aware of also the situation of false flags and all of that. [10:44] And so, I mean, we can still wait and see what happens. [10:48] But it also is in line with past attacks and, again, that bigger view and doctrine. [10:54] And let's not forget, from the viewpoint of Tehran, this is an existential war. [10:58] I mean, first of all, it's an illegal war without a vote from U.S. Congress, U.S. [11:02] Security Council, of course, U.S. allies. [11:04] In fact, almost the entire world is saying the U.S. to stop and resolve this. [11:08] And for the Iranians, they're fighting a battle of survival. [11:12] And so, for them, first of all, international law is dead. [11:16] I mean, they're fighting a war of attrition. [11:20] Israel is defending itself. [11:22] And also, this war came to them. [11:23] And it's not the first time. [11:24] It started last year in June with the 12-day war. [11:27] From the Iranian viewpoint, that war never stopped. [11:30] There was a ceasefire. [11:31] And then the war came back. [11:32] So, what they're fighting, first and foremost, what they're fighting for is to make sure they stop the war permanently. [11:39] I think what the Iranian thinking right now, the doctrine, is that we are going to fight this war. [11:43] They're willing to continue, make it a war of attrition with an asymmetric escalation, bring it to a point when there's enough deterrence established [11:52] and the permanent end is so guaranteed that the war will not come back. [11:57] The war keeps coming back to them, they're thinking that's a higher cost than fighting it to a point of stop. [12:04] And that's why we see all of the strategy. [12:06] And then, of course, Hormuz is their golden card or the main leverage that they've played as part of this big strategy. [12:12] And many argue that they have played it extremely well to put as much pressure on the U.S. as possible. [12:17] Jasmine, the UAE, you touched on this before, reserves the right to respond to Iran's latest attacks. [12:24] Reports, they have been very frustrated that there hasn't been a strong enough response from some of its neighbours in the GCC. [12:32] Do you think that this potentially could be the tipping point that they actually get more aggressive against Iran? [12:41] Well, look, theoretically, there could be, and they certainly have capabilities. [12:44] They have a very capable air force. [12:46] They can do limited strikes, standoff strikes. [12:51] I mean, they can allow the U.S. to operate more freely from its territory. [12:55] There are a range of things that the UAE can do. [12:58] But the question really here is, is escalation a good idea? [13:03] Does escalation actually lead to potentially further attacks on the UAE? [13:09] And that is the equation here that they're weighing. [13:12] And other Gulf countries have weighed this equation as well. [13:14] This is why you've seen different responses across different countries, [13:18] with some countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, for example, really favouring de-escalation [13:24] and putting their weight behind the Pakistan-mediated talks, despite reports otherwise. [13:32] Because there have been leaked reports or sort of stories in the press saying that Saudi Arabia [13:39] has been asking the U.S. to escalate, which is not the case. [13:44] But that's the question here. [13:46] It's about whether further escalation is really the smart thing to do, [13:51] whether it puts the UAE in an even more difficult position. [13:55] You know, I agree with Nagar completely about the idea that U.S. military bases and personnel [14:01] were always going to be at risk in the UAE. [14:05] And when I was at the Pentagon, certainly in any war planning scenario, [14:08] when it came to war with Iran, we were prepared for Iran to do that. [14:12] But I do think from the Gulf perspective, and I can see that perspective, [14:17] Iran has gone a lot further in its retaliation beyond just U.S. personnel and bases in those [14:23] countries to civilian energy infrastructure, which is why the stakes are much higher for them. [14:30] The question they're asking themselves is, if we don't respond now, given even with all the [14:36] risks of responding, does this set a precedent for what can happen to us in the future? [14:41] Okay, Jason, just staying with escalation at this point in time, many have argued that Donald [14:46] Trump, the U.S. administration, was given the perfect opportunity to escalate the situation [14:52] with direct threats towards its navy in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the threats towards the UAE. [14:58] Why do you think he didn't take that opportunity? [15:00] Well, I think right now, even the administration understands that there's going to be limited [15:10] political gain from tit-for-tat military escalations. [15:16] And what I mean by that is a resumption of strikes within Iran or, you know, this continued targeting [15:24] of some of the fast boats, which, again, in a defensive manner like we've seen, I think are [15:30] certainly justified, but in terms of the assets it has in the region right now, it's difficult [15:38] to foresee a quick strike that will materially move the strategic needle in America's favor. [15:46] So when you're talking about what are the military options right now, you've heard some of these [15:52] ground-based options, be it at Karg Island being an attempt to reach and confiscate the highly [16:01] enriched uranium, some of these other options, or to forcibly open the Strait through military [16:06] means, you're talking about significant dedication of U.S. ground forces for timelines that are [16:14] unpredictable with heavy, heavy risk and very questionable strategic upside. [16:20] So right now, I think the administration is somewhat confined to responding to Iranian threats [16:27] as they present themselves. [16:30] But in terms of an offensive operation, there's no real, you know, silver bullet strike that's [16:36] really going to materially change the way the Iranian regime looks at its position in [16:42] this conflict right now. [16:43] Okay. [16:44] And Naga, we heard that this is a war of timelines, that basically whoever can handle the economic [16:49] pain, especially for longer, will prevail. [16:53] You said that Iran wants to work out a way to stop the war permanently. [16:58] How does it go about doing that from the position that it's in right now? [17:03] Well, just to build on what Jasmine was saying, also Jason, to your question, I mean, for the [17:09] Iranians, they didn't choose this war. [17:11] This war is, unlike the U.S., who chose this war, it's still unclear why President Trump chose this war. [17:18] I mean, Jasmine probably knows better than me. [17:19] This was a plan, mostly pushed by Benjamin Netanyahu, that was put in front of multiple [17:25] U.S. presidents. [17:26] But they do now have to deal with it, the consequences of that. [17:29] Even if they didn't ask for it, they didn't want it, they were in the middle of negotiations. [17:33] So what do they do from here? [17:34] And, you know, just to clear that point, it's been put in front of Republican and Democratic [17:39] presidents. [17:40] Nobody took it because it was understood that it wasn't going to be easy. [17:43] For some reason, it was believed in the Trump White House that Iran is a paper tiger, that [17:48] we can go in. [17:49] This was believed last year and then again this year, that we go in from the sky, somehow [17:53] people rise up, we're going to change the regime, this is going to be a Venezuela model, [17:57] it's going to be a cakewalk. [17:59] And it just isn't. [18:00] What they have seen is that Iran, for them, this is an existential war. [18:04] For them, they didn't choose it, but they're defending the homeland, they're defending their [18:08] sovereignty. [18:09] They also have the advantage of geography. [18:10] They're the home team, basically, and they have no other choice but to defend and continue [18:16] this war. [18:16] But to the point of fighting it, I mean, Tehran has been under economic pressure for years, [18:22] if not decades, the most severe economic pressures, one of the most sanctioned countries on earth. [18:27] Yes, there's pressure on the economy, on ordinary people, working class, middle class Iranians, [18:31] but that hasn't really led to policy change in Tehran. [18:36] And it's, I don't think, I doubt that it's going to during this war. [18:40] The thinking in Tehran, and if anybody follows this through history, culture, you know, years [18:45] of civilization, independence, sovereignty, and that defense takes precedent and priority [18:51] over anything else. [18:52] So they're willing and able to absorb more economic pain. [18:57] They also have a higher tolerance for pain just because of this experience. [19:01] And I don't think more economic pain at this point in a form of blockade or even more sanctions [19:06] is going to lead to any policy change. [19:08] In fact, it may harden their position. [19:10] What I think, just to conclude, what I think is the way out of this war, which wasn't a [19:15] cakewalk. [19:16] It didn't lead to any of the purported U.S. goals, regime change, nuclear program, is a [19:21] diplomatic solution. [19:22] A diplomatic solution, but what needs to be understood is for diplomacy to work, you [19:26] need to meet halfway. [19:28] You need to make concessions. [19:29] I feel like President Trump still oscillates between wanting that big deal, that grand [19:34] bargain, but not willing to give anything for it. [19:36] He still wants surrender, even at the negotiating table. [19:39] And when he goes to the table, he doesn't get that surrender. [19:41] He wants to go and push more militarily by force on the battlefield to then force the [19:46] Iranians to capitulate. [19:47] And they just haven't done that. [19:48] I mean, literally, top brass, top leaders in Iran have been dying in assassinations and [19:53] not surrendering. [19:54] I just don't think they're going to do that with more force, with more pressure. [19:58] Right. [19:58] Obviously, it's not just Iran and the U.S. that is dealing with the fallout from the [20:04] closure of the Strait of Hormuz. [20:05] This is turning into a widespread global problem. [20:09] We heard from Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, saying this is just a temporary mission [20:13] for the United States. [20:15] The world needs the strait more than we do. [20:17] We expect the world to step up. [20:19] We will hand responsibility back to you. [20:22] Jasmine, they've so far shown absolutely no sign of doing any of that. [20:28] I mean, what is going to Trump actually going to have to do here to try and draw some of [20:34] his traditional allies to help him in the long term? [20:40] Well, I mean, this is the problem, right? [20:43] This is the opposite of you broke it, you own it, you fix it. [20:46] This is Trump breaking things and expecting other countries to come in and participate [20:53] in a solution. [20:55] You know, as Nagar stated before, the U.S. and Iran were in negotiations for the second [21:00] time in two years before the U.S. decided to strike. [21:04] And when, you know, she was saying, I'm not sure why President Trump thought this would [21:08] be easy, I think it's because he is surrounded by people who tell him what he wants to hear. [21:14] He also was coming out of the Venezuela operation with a lot of confidence, feeling very sure [21:21] that he could repeat this in Iran. [21:23] And of course, with Prime Minister Netanyahu's assertions that this would only take a few days. [21:30] Now, that, of course, hasn't happened. [21:32] And we are now trying to solve a problem that didn't exist before the U.S. went and struck [21:37] Iran along with Israel. [21:39] The issue here is whether other countries want to help assume responsibility for opening [21:46] the strait, whether they do it by force, whether they do it by diplomacy, whether they do it [21:51] through bilateral conversations with Iran. [21:54] On one hand, they don't, you know, countries, for example, here in Europe, in London, where [22:00] I'm sitting, countries are weighing whether to enter into an arrangement where they could [22:09] be putting their own assets at risk if they go in and try to do something with the U.S. [22:15] But also, if they're negotiating bilaterally with Iran, it's also rewarding bad behavior [22:20] on that side as well. [22:21] So right now, you are seeing discussions happening in the U.N. Security Council and talking about [22:26] whether there's an international framework, that there's some way that the Security Council [22:31] can be involved and try to do it through that framework. [22:36] But it certainly is not easy. [22:40] And it's going to take, as Nagar said, the U.S. coming to terms with the fact that it will [22:45] have to make concessions. [22:46] But also with Iran coming to terms that with the fact that no country in the world will [22:53] allow or be happy with Iran suddenly controlling the strait for, you know, years to come. [23:01] Yes. [23:01] On that point, we know that the U.S. under Trump and Hegseth want to continue on with a project [23:08] freedom, Jason. [23:09] You said that the U.S. Navy is ill-equipped to carry out carry it out in the in the medium [23:16] to long term. [23:17] How dangerous is that if they do continue trying to allow ships to pass through the Strait [23:23] of Hormuz with the aid of the U.S. Navy? [23:27] And Iran potentially tries to stop that from happening. [23:33] Right. [23:34] Well, Iran continues to maintain many of its asymmetric threats. [23:39] It has, by most estimates, hundreds of more mines it could deploy. [23:44] It has an array of fast ships. [23:46] It has anti-ship missiles that are ground based that could be used. [23:52] So it really is a question of whether this is some, again, more of a shorter term, you [23:57] know, rescue operation of sorts to help extricate some of the ships that have been stuck in the [24:04] Gulf now for weeks or if it's the ambition is a bit grander. [24:09] And even then it gets more complicated because ultimately you're talking about commercial vessels [24:14] that would be have to be willing to buy into what will be remain a very risky environment [24:22] and proposition without some sort of a political accommodation made. [24:27] So from a military standpoint, again, the U.S. has some options in the near term. [24:33] But in terms of moving that strategic needle, it's very difficult to see this happening. [24:38] And never mind the other, you know, broader U.S. Pentagon questions about, you know, maintaining [24:46] readiness on a more global level and the degree to which they're having to burn through some [24:52] of their, you know, an array of projectiles and other, you know, air and missile defense [24:59] capabilities that would have to be devoted to this type of mission in the long term. [25:04] Naga, we've only got a couple of minutes left. [25:06] You said that we need to find a way to permanently end this war. [25:11] Obviously, that feels at this point in time like a long way off coming to get a credible, [25:16] durable agreement. [25:16] But what's the next step that needs to happen, Naga, from this point on? [25:22] I think what makes me hopeful is that both sides want to exit the war. [25:25] Like I said, Iran didn't want this war. [25:27] And I feel like President Trump, this is also like longer than he wanted. [25:31] I mean, he ran as president of peace and he campaigned very strongly against these endless [25:36] wars in the Middle East. [25:36] And now he's entangled in one of the most complex ones. [25:40] But I think the sooner it's understood on both sides, like I said, and I agree with [25:45] Jasmine, that they need to meet somewhere halfway, make concessions, show more flexibility. [25:50] I feel like they go back and forth these proposals, the amendments. [25:53] There's a narrow path, but it makes me hopeful. [25:56] The role of mediators is very important. [25:58] Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt. [26:01] Nobody in the region wants this war to continue. [26:03] In fact, like you said, nobody in the world, this has created a global energy crisis and [26:07] it can just increase in different ways, food insecurity, fertilizers, inflation. [26:12] So the sooner this is understood on both sides, and I think more in Washington, because President [26:18] Trump still oscillates between wanting a deal and wanting to put more pressure for surrender, [26:23] and they meet somewhere halfway with the help of mediators, higher powers, potentially China, [26:28] Russia. [26:28] If they can step in and put more weight behind this process, I think there is a way to end [26:33] it. [26:33] And both sides want to exit it. [26:34] It's just the understanding has to be there will be no absolute winner in this war and there [26:38] will be no absolute loser. [26:40] Both have to take whatever wins they have and just exit it for permanent peace. [26:45] Okay, we'll leave it there. [26:46] Negar Motezavi, Jason Campbell, Jasmine Al-Gamal, we really do appreciate your time here on Inside [26:51] Story. [26:52] Thanks very much. [26:53] Well, thank you two for watching. [26:54] You can see the program again anytime by visiting our website. [26:58] That's algezera.com. [26:59] For further discussion, you can go to our Facebook page. [27:02] That's facebook.com forward slash AJ Inside Story. [27:05] You can also join the conversation on X. [27:08] Our handle is at AJ Inside Story. [27:11] For now, that's it for me, Tom McRae and the whole team here. [27:14] Algezera's coverage of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz continues in just a moment. [27:19] Do stay tuned.