What's behind Viktor Orban's defeat? — Inside Story

[0:01] Hungary's opposition has defeated Prime Minister Viktor Orban by a landslide. [0:05] He governed for 16 years with a far-right agenda often described as authoritarian. [0:11] So what led to his loss? [0:12] And what does the outcome mean for the EU, the US and Russia? [0:15] This is Inside Story. [0:33] Hey there, I'm Scott McLean. [0:34] After 16 years, Hungary's far-right Prime Minister Viktor Orban [0:38] and his populist Fidesz party have been defeated. [0:42] Orban's former ally, Peter Madjar, will now take the helm. [0:45] Madjar says his conservative TISA party will shift away from Russia and toward the European Union. [0:52] That could allow Budapest to recover some much-needed EU funds that Brussels froze during Orban's tenure. [0:58] And that could help Hungary's ailing economy. [1:00] But Orban had been supported not just by Putin, but by Netanyahu in Israel and Trump in the United States. [1:06] So how will Washington react to the result after it publicly backed his government? [1:10] Can Budapest improve its relations with Brussels? [1:13] And will that change the level of Europe's support for Ukraine? [1:17] Will Madjar be able to carry out the reforms he's promised? [1:20] We will put these questions to our guests. [1:22] But first, this report from Imogen Kimber. [1:24] It's a landslide victory for Peter Madjar. [1:30] His centre-right party, TISA, has won a two-thirds majority in the Hungarian parliament. [1:35] And it's a loss for Prime Minister Viktor Orban, after 16 years in power. [1:43] Magyar's pitch to the Hungarian public was straightforward. [1:46] He would end the Fidesz party's government and turn away some of Orban's policies, including its pro-Russia stance. [1:55] Hungary will once again be a strong ally in the European Union and NATO. [1:59] Orban had used Hungary's veto in the EU to block sanctions on Russia after it invaded Ukraine. [2:08] And Budapest continued to buy oil and gas from Moscow. [2:11] He also pushed back on EU support for Kyiv. [2:14] Magyar hopes to unlock billions in EU funding. [2:18] Brussels froze it after accusing Orban of democratic backsliding. [2:21] We will restore the system of checks and balances and guarantee the democratic functioning of our country. [2:33] The EU said Orban had breached the bloc's rules by increasing executive power, [2:38] curbing the work of NGOs, restricting press freedoms and weakening judicial independence. [2:45] We evidently still have such a high degree of resilience in a democratic society like Hungary's. [2:51] Right-wing populism suffered a severe defeat in Hungary. [2:55] But there's one government that may not be eagerly anticipating the new leadership. [2:59] The US President Donald Trump and his administration openly backed Orban. [3:04] Orban and Magyar were once allies, and their views align on some issues, including their anti-immigration stances. [3:11] But surveys show many Hungarians voted for Tizar over their dissatisfaction with the stagnating economy and health care. [3:18] And most are celebrating this historic change. [3:20] All right, let's bring in our guests. [3:30] In the studio with me is Gabor Schering. [3:32] He is an assistant professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and a former member of the National Assembly of Hungary. [3:38] From Stockholm, Carl Bildt. [3:40] He is the co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and former Swedish Prime Minister. [3:45] And in Hopewell, New Jersey in the United States, Kim Lane Shepley. [3:49] She is a professor at Princeton University. [3:52] Thank you all for being on the program today. [3:54] I appreciate it. [3:55] So, Prime Minister, Bill, we'll start with you. [3:58] EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that Hungary has chosen Europe. [4:03] You're a former Swedish prime minister. [4:05] I wonder, do you think that Hungary has really chosen Europe? [4:08] Or do you think that the Hungarian people have maybe just chosen the hope of a stronger economy or better health care? [4:14] Well, I think they are primarily chosen to get rid of a regime that had been there for too long and was too much associated with corruption and nepotism and all of that. [4:25] So I think it was primarily domestic factors. [4:29] That is always the case in elections. [4:31] But there is no question that they wanted to be more fully part of the European family and not be seen as the odd man out blocking European policies in the one area or the other. [4:40] But I think corruption was really the issue that brought down the regime. [4:45] Kim, help us understand here, Peter Magyar is in many ways cut from the same cloth as Viktor Orban. [4:53] He was a Fidesz party member until just a few years ago. [4:57] He worked under Viktor Orban as a diplomat in Brussels. [5:03] His ex-wife worked in the government as the justice minister. [5:07] He is anti-immigration. [5:08] He is a conservative. [5:09] And yet this victory, it seems, is really being celebrated in Europe. [5:12] Why is this such a big deal? [5:16] Yeah, so Peter Magyar did pop out of the Orban machine. [5:19] And I think he was really unknown to Hungarians until two years ago. [5:24] But what he's been doing over the last couple of years is really creating a very distinctive profile for himself. [5:30] So he clearly is a center-right political candidate. [5:33] So he positions himself in the same part of the political spectrum as Orban. [5:38] That's why he could be in the Orban machine. [5:40] But he actually has much more of a co-European policy. [5:46] In particular, you know, Europe cut a lot of money to Hungary a couple of years ago. [5:51] And that signaled to Hungarians. [5:53] It was really the main signal to Hungarians that the EU was really not happy, shall we say, with the government that they were living under. [6:02] Peter Magyar made a big campaign issue of getting back the European money and doing that by restoring European values. [6:10] So, and one of the reasons why the money was cut, he kept saying, quite rightfully, was because of the corruption in the Orban regime that diverted a lot of that EU money into the private pockets of Orban's inner circle. [6:24] So, yes, I agree with former Minister Bildt that, you know, this was really about corruption. [6:31] But it was corruption linked to this government and corruption linked to this government's misuse of EU funds. [6:38] So returning to Europe actually means the first thing Peter Magyar said he would do is to join the European Public Prosecutor's Office and go after the corruption in EU funds. [6:48] Gabor, you ran, you're a former Hungarian MP, of course, you ran against Viktor Orban in 2010 in that same election where he became the prime minister. [6:58] Help us understand how he has had this kind of staying power, how he is still there or was still there for 16 years. [7:05] Well, it's a tough question. [7:07] And I think one of the reasons is that the Hungarians really grew tired and frustrated even with the years that preceded Viktor Orban's era. [7:18] So the downfall of the kind of the democratic transition from the 1990s to the 2010s is pretty much similar to the downfall of Viktor Orban's regime that is stagnating real wages, growing inequalities. [7:31] And at that time, Viktor Orban seemed to be the solution. [7:34] And for some years, he managed to deliver partially because of the EU funds that boosted the Hungarian economy. [7:41] But then for various reasons, corruption, democratic backsliding, pro-Russia foreign policy, Orban lost those EU funds. [7:49] And that contributed to the stagnation of the Hungarian economy and many other structural imbalances domestically led to, again, stagnation of real wages, growing income inequalities. [8:02] And that undermined this long-term legitimacy that Viktor Orban enjoyed throughout the last 16 years. [8:08] Prime Minister, it seems clear that Viktor Orban has long been the sort of black sheep of Europe. [8:13] There is still a $100 million loan that's from Europe to Ukraine that's been held up by Hungary's veto. [8:21] Obviously, many European leaders are celebrating Peter Madyar's victory. [8:25] But I want to just read you what the Ukrainian president wrote on X. [8:30] He said in part, quote, [8:31] I don't know about you, but when I read that, it doesn't strike me like Ukraine is brimming with excitement about this. [8:50] But is there a reason for Kyiv to maybe be optimistic here? [8:55] I think there's reason for Europe to be optimistic. [8:58] I mean, it's fair to say that in the beginning of his long period as prime minister, he's been the longest serving prime minister in the European Union. [9:05] He was a fresh liberal face and did some good things. [9:10] I mean, his record is not only a bad one. [9:13] But then he developed this theory of illiberal democracy that became increasingly illiberal and increasingly corrupt. [9:19] And then he developed a foreign policy profile of listening too much to Mr. Putin and to a certain extent later to Mr. Trump. [9:29] And that has alienated him clearly from the European mainstream. [9:33] So the fact that he's been sort of a destructive force inside the European Union for the last few years, blocking the one decision after the other, [9:42] that could be sanctions against Russia, that could be held to Ukraine, there is relief. [9:49] That doesn't solve all of the issues. [9:51] There are quite a number of issues where the Hungarians should have their national point of view. [9:56] And we'll see what Peter Madyar developed in terms of policy. [9:59] I think it was an important signal when he said that his first visit abroad is going to be to Poland. [10:04] And to link up with that central European liberal reformist with a very different foreign policy orientation from the one that Mr. Orban has represented. [10:15] But just to tie a bow on this question, do you think that Peter Madyar will be better for Ukraine? [10:19] I certainly hope that he will contribute to unlocking the decision on the loan, the $90 billion. [10:29] I mean, that was de facto something that even Orban agreed to initially and then is blocked during the last few months over different bizarre issues [10:37] that I think had to do with his decision to conduct very much an anti-Ukraine campaign prior to the election. [10:45] He's playing a very, very, very heavy anti-Ukraine card that evidently did not work. [10:52] OK, so when it comes to Ukraine and Russia, Gabor, Hungary is hugely dependent on Russian oil and gas. [10:57] I think it's something like 90 percent of crude oil imports to Hungary come from Russia. [11:03] It's cheap. It's reliable. [11:05] But of course, Europe is trying to wean itself off of Russian energy at this time. [11:10] Hungary, Slovakia, they famously held out and resisted that policy. [11:14] Peter Madyar says he wants to cut off the flow by 2035. [11:17] I wonder, inside of Hungary, is there any appetite amongst the electorate to do this sooner? [11:22] I mean, what average Hungarians want is really kind of stability, a sense of normalcy and economic prosperity. [11:34] And for that, a normalization of foreign relations is required, both with Europe and also with Ukraine. [11:41] And that will involve some kind of restructuring of Hungarian energy dependencies. [11:45] Viktor Orban has made it very clear that it's a key priority for him to keep close ties with Viktor Putin and he campaigned clearly against Ukraine. [11:57] And I think the whole package will shift towards more a pro-Western approach and a gradual reduction in Ukrainian, in Russia. [12:07] But just to summarize, I mean, was this a big issue for the average Hungarian voter? [12:10] Foreign policy is, in general, not a main priority for most voters, right? [12:16] Just for us. [12:17] But they seep into everyday decisions because those decisions affect EU funds, for example. [12:24] And those EU funds affect the health of the Hungarian economy. [12:28] So, in that sense, they are interrelated indirectly. [12:33] And healing the Hungarian economy will require the unlocking of EU funds. [12:42] And that will require a completely different energy and foreign policy. [12:45] OK, so, Kim, on the subject of EU funds, Prime Minister Bill mentioned that Peter Magyar is likely to go to Poland first. [12:52] He'll also surely go to Brussels to try to get some of the Hungarian money unfrozen. [12:58] Do you think that Brussels should unfreeze that money or maybe wait until some progress has been made on some of these concerns that they have over, you know, democratic backsliding that we've seen in Hungary? [13:10] Yes, this is a very tricky question because the EU withholds funds under a legal structure through which the funds are withheld for certain purposes. [13:19] And they're not supposed to be released until those purposes are accomplished. [13:23] The funds that are currently being withheld are being withheld primarily because of corruption, also a bit because of the problems with judicial independence. [13:33] And so this was a problem also in Poland. [13:35] When the Tusk government came in, a huge amount of funding was withheld from Poland. [13:40] What the EU did was to just give Poland all the money, being so relieved that the autocratic government that Tusk replaced was out of office. [13:49] My guess is that they're going to be tempted to do the same here. [13:52] But I want to issue a caution, which is when this happened in Poland, Donald Tusk lost the leverage he might have had within European, within Polish politics, to be able to make those reforms in order to get the money back. [14:08] In other words, as long as the money was withheld. [14:11] Because he already had it, right. [14:13] And the same may happen here. [14:14] I'm a little worried about that. [14:15] That said, there's also a danger here with EU funds, which is that Orban always plans to win and to lose every election. [14:25] And what Orban has done now in the run-up to this election is to engage in very fast, massive privatization of the entire defense sector in Hungary. [14:35] And the defense sector has now been privatized in the hands of Orban's cronies. [14:39] So one thing we can expect is that Orban's been promised 16 to 17 billion euro out of the safe funds to bolster European defense. [14:49] And if that money even comes to a Magyar government, it's going to pass through that government through contracts to Orban's people, right? [14:57] So this is something else I think the EU has to worry about, is what do these sectors look like to which the monies will flow? [15:06] And Orban's already prepared to get EU money whenever it shows up. [15:10] I want to ask you guys about the United States and the fact that the American Vice President J.D. Vance, with everything that's going on in the world right now and with his country at war, [15:19] Last week, he decided that it was a good use of his time to go to Hungary and campaign on behalf of Viktor Orban. [15:26] And in his speech, he referred to European political leaders like this. [15:31] Listen. [15:32] I see the way they look down at, they scoff at European and American peoples who want job security and control of migration. [15:41] And most of all, I see that those who hate Europe the most, who hate its borders, its energy independence, [15:48] the people who hate its Christian heritage, they hate one man above all others, and his name is Viktor Orban. [15:55] And if they hate him, it means he's on your side. [15:58] Gabor, did J.D. Vance misunderstand who the opposition was? [16:01] Because obviously Peter Magyar is not this kind of a European liberal per se. [16:06] Or is maybe American influence just not what maybe they thought it was? [16:10] Yeah, I think at this point, neither J.D. Vance nor Trump is particularly popular, [16:15] not even in Hungary, but certainly throughout Europe. [16:20] So I don't think that his visit or his words particularly helped at this point. [16:24] And this is really striking, because Viktor Orban has invested billions of Hungarian money [16:30] into building up a transatlantic kind of illiberal ecosystem, foundations, [16:35] and those foundations, experts zigzagging between these continents for years and years and years. [16:42] You have many high-profile American experts stationed at these private foundations, [16:47] funded by taxpayers' money and those foundations. [16:50] So it's not going to be easy to cut the income of those foundations, [16:53] because they have been given wealth from taxpayers' money. [16:57] So those investments went into building up Hungary as the key illiberal role model state, [17:04] which made it appealing to American radical conservatives, the MAGA camp. [17:09] So that made this really closely aligned political kind of sympathy on both sides. [17:17] But it's very hard to translate it into direct electoral support [17:20] when your economy is collapsing, when your political project is collapsing, morally, politically. [17:27] At that point, a visit by a vice president from the United States doesn't really help. [17:33] Prime Minister Bill, obviously Viktor Orban had lots of support from Vladimir Putin, [17:38] from Washington, and also from Israel as well. [17:42] He was a big supporter of the Israeli government. [17:44] And I wonder, now that Peter Magyar will soon be in office, [17:49] some of these EU statements, some of these EU sanctions against, say, West Bank settlers, [17:55] might be able to be pushed through the European Parliament, [17:58] because as of late, they have been blocked by one country, and that has been Hungary. [18:05] It remains to be seen, but I think that's highly likely, as you say, [18:08] in terms of the common foreign policy, the common foreign and security policy of the European Union. [18:12] Hungary has been blocking statements all the time on all sorts of issues. [18:18] We'll see where Peter Magyar ends up on this, [18:21] but I think it's going to be more of the normal dialogue that we have between European countries, [18:26] and then forming some sort of consensus. [18:28] I don't think, I don't envisage Hungary now being the eternal veto country [18:35] that it has been during the last few years, but remains to be seen. [18:39] Israel is one issue. They have been blocking sanctions packages against Russia as well, [18:46] and quite a long list of the different issues where they have been the veto country. [18:52] Kim, Israeli opposition figures have been congratulating Peter Magyar. [18:57] Prime Minister Netanyahu has been a bit slower to do the same. [19:01] Why do you think that is? [19:04] Well, so Mr. Netanyahu has been covering for Orbán for years, [19:07] and Orbán runs these dog-whistle anti-Semitic campaigns in Hungary. [19:12] In fact, that even happened this time. [19:14] There were posters all over Budapest of Mr. Zlensky with the phrase, [19:20] don't let him have the last laugh. [19:22] The pictures of Zlensky were photographed to make him look maximally Jewish, [19:26] and everybody in Hungary would read the pictures that way. [19:30] Every time Orbán's accused of anti-Semitism, [19:32] Mr. Netanyahu flies in or zooms in and says, [19:36] you know, we all hate the people that Orbán hates. [19:39] He's not anti-Semitic, so he's been providing that cover in domestic politics. [19:43] In exchange, you know, Orbán's been exporting to Israel [19:46] a lot of the democracy-crashing laws and plans [19:51] that Orbán has carried out in Hungary. [19:53] So as you know, there's been this so-called, before the October 7th events, [19:58] there was this kind of judicial coup going on in Hungary, [20:01] in Israel, I'm sorry, and there were Hungarian advisors to that. [20:05] So, you know, there's a lot of cooperation between Orbán and Netanyahu [20:09] in crashing democracies, and I'm sure Netanyahu is going to look at [20:13] Peter Modyar and wonder what happened. [20:15] Gabor, I want to ask you about the media environment inside of Hungary, [20:19] and the Committee to Protect Journalists says that some 80% of Hungarian media [20:23] is either controlled or sort of, how do they put that, [20:28] either directly or indirectly controlled by the ruling party. [20:31] You have journalists who are often smeared by the government. [20:36] They are, they have been surveilled. [20:38] Is there an easy way to kind of unpick this or undo this, [20:41] or do you think that the new ruling government [20:43] will just adopt the same tactics? [20:45] Well, there's different dimensions to this question. [20:50] There's, for example, the colonization of the public broadcasting. [20:53] That is the easier side to fix, because the government has direct control over that, [20:59] and public media has played a hugely important role in Viktor Orbán's political machinery. [21:06] So I'd say that's kind of doable, though not easy in itself. [21:11] But there is the other side, where Viktor Orbán used his oligarchs to buy up private media, [21:17] and that is now privately owned media corporations closely aligned with Viktor Orbán's political project, [21:24] and they have been consolidated into a whole private foundation that is very wealthy [21:30] and controls the vast majority of, especially the local media outlets throughout Hungary. [21:37] So dealing with that, I think, is going to be very, very challenging. [21:40] You can play with, like, for example, Viktor Orbán was shoveling money to these aligned media outlets [21:46] through a public advertisement, for example. [21:49] So the new government could kind of adjust that and advertise less in those outlets. [21:55] But, you know, you can't just close them right away. [21:59] So that's going to be very, very challenging. [22:00] That's one of those things that I call these extra-governmental fortifications of illiberalism [22:06] that Viktor Orbán has erected over the last 16 years, [22:11] a series of landmines that will make it very, very difficult for the new government [22:16] to really re-democratize and then govern the country. [22:20] Kim, two years ago, Peter Madjar said in an interview, [22:23] quote, a few families own half the country when talking about corruption. [22:28] Do you think that he would be wise to investigate and go after corruption [22:32] where it may or may not have existed in the Orbán administration? [22:35] Or should this be water under the bridge? [22:37] Should he just move on? [22:40] Well, he's campaigned against corruption, and he's actually said that one of the things [22:44] he would like to do is to claw back all of the state money that went into building these fortunes. [22:51] So the difficulty with that, and I think he's really quite determined to do that, [22:55] the difficulty is that he's got this packed prosecutor's office, [22:59] and he's got these packed courts. [23:01] So the question is exactly how he's going to carry that out. [23:04] Now, that's why I think, you know, joining the European Public Prosecutor's Office [23:08] was the first step that he can do, you know, around all the roadblocks that Orbán has created. [23:14] But it's going to be a very big task because there are, I mean, there's this massive inequality [23:18] that Gabler referred to now in Hungary, and the top of that pile, you know, [23:24] that's the highest income people are all of Orbán's circle. [23:28] So, you know, and tracking that money and figuring out where it came from, [23:32] how to claw it back, is going to be a big project. [23:35] Prime Minister Bildt, at the top of this interview, you said that, you know, [23:39] there were some good things that Viktor Orbán did, and I just wonder if you can walk us through [23:42] what you think, in a nutshell, his legacy will be. [23:46] Because, you know, he came into office when the economy in Hungary truly was not good, [23:51] and he turned things around. [23:52] And one of the things he did was introduce something called Workfare, [23:55] where basically he took anyone who was unemployed and said, [23:58] look, if you can't find a job, we'll give you a job. [24:00] It may not be the job that you want, but it'll be something, [24:03] it'll get you off of the benefit system. [24:05] That brought unemployment down from 12% to 4%. [24:09] It seems like that was a success. [24:11] Are there other things that maybe European countries could learn from Viktor Orbán? [24:16] I don't have any immediate examples of that, [24:22] but we should not forget the history of Viktor Orbán was, [24:24] he was a liberal anti-communist campaigner. [24:27] He came out of a school or educated by George Soros [24:30] in the beginning of that wave of democratization of Central Europe. [24:36] And when he came in as prime minister for the first time, [24:38] it was after a government that had been failing quite miserably. [24:42] And as Paul pointed out, Garber mentioned that, [24:44] there was a feeling that Hungary needed a more fresh government, [24:48] and he delivered that for a while. [24:49] But what happened then was that he went elsewhere. [24:54] He went from having been a liberal champion to being the leading, [24:58] or one of the world's leading champions of an illiberal approach to state building. [25:05] And books will be written about the mystery that that represents, [25:10] but that's the way it is. [25:12] And I think his legacy, [25:14] there will be memories of what he did in the breakout from the Soviet period. [25:20] But I think his legacy is primarily going to be the illiberal project [25:24] and the failure of the liberal project. [25:27] Kim, we're running out of time, but quickly, [25:28] do you think that Viktor Orbán is likely to stay in government long term [25:31] or stay in politics long term in opposition? [25:35] Yeah, I don't think we've heard the last of Viktor Orbán. [25:38] He's a fighter. [25:39] And, you know, I think that he will lick his wounds and he will come back. [25:43] Remember that he cobbled together the third largest party in the European Parliament. [25:47] And I can imagine that he will still be speaking through them [25:51] and also in national politics. [25:53] So don't count him out. [25:54] He's a fighter. [25:55] He'll be back. [25:57] And, Gabor, is this, I mean, what we're witnessing right now in Hungary, [26:00] there's so much excitement. [26:01] There's so many people, even from the left side of the political spectrum, [26:04] who opted to support Peter Mayer in his election. [26:08] So many young people were out on the street of Budapest. [26:11] He's obviously pledged to clean up corruption [26:13] and make the system better and fairer, move toward Europe. [26:18] The list goes on. [26:19] Is this a real shift to democracy in Hungary or is this just window dressing? [26:25] Well, we'll see that. [26:27] But this is certainly the first step. [26:29] This is an opening. [26:30] So the country has been living a horrible nightmare for 16 years. [26:34] And that nightmare is over now. [26:36] And the door has been opened. [26:39] The next steps are going to be really difficult. [26:42] But there's no other option. [26:44] And if I may say, sir, the previous question, [26:46] what we can learn from Viktor Orban is that he at least had a vision. [26:50] And I think the new government will have to have a vision [26:53] about how they will transform the country. [26:56] And that vision must be something different [26:57] that we used to associate with liberal democracy in the 1990s. [27:02] I think that system is broken. [27:04] And I think we need a new Democracy 2.0. [27:07] Now there's a chance to take the first steps that direction. [27:10] Whether the steps are going to be actually taken, [27:13] something we'll see. [27:14] Let's see what happens. [27:15] Gabor Schering, Prime Minister Carl Bildt, [27:18] and Kim Lane Shepley, [27:20] we appreciate all of your time today. [27:22] Thank you. [27:24] And thank you, too, for watching. [27:25] You can see the program again anytime by visiting our website. [27:28] It's aljazeera.com. [27:30] And for further discussion, go to our Facebook page. [27:32] That's facebook.com forward slash AJ Inside Story. [27:36] You can also join the conversation on X. [27:38] Our handle is AJ Inside Story. [27:40] From me, Scott McLean, and the whole team here in Doha, [27:43] bye for now.