What will missing US crewman be facing inside Iran?

[0:00] You're a former interrogator and used to debrief hostages, whether that's downed air crew or troops [0:07] captured behind enemy lines. We're assuming here that the second crew member of the US F-15E [0:12] has ejected and is situated somewhere inside Kazakhstan province, which is in Iran and it's [0:19] on the border of Iraq. What are the protocols that that crew member will be deploying to avoid [0:25] capture? Well, first and foremost, Mikey, he or she will want to get rid of any kit they can get [0:32] rid of. And if they get the chance to bury it, if the ground so allows them to do that. [0:38] In addition to that, in regards to themselves, their whole persona will be extremely heightened [0:46] in terms of adrenaline, their hearing, sight, smell, because what they'll be doing is wanting [0:55] not to... [0:55] To engage with anybody whatsoever. So although they'll be heading in this case, hopefully due [1:01] west, what they need to remember is that they need to stay out of harm's way. And if we think [1:07] back to the first Gulf War, Mr. McNabb and Bravo 2-0, what gave them away straight away [1:13] was the goat herder. So it's very important that that individual, he or she, manages to stay [1:21] completely out of sight, if at all possible. Now, the first crew member, the combat search [1:27] and rescue's found the first crew member. And we don't know whether it's the pilot or the weapon [1:31] systems operator. They found the first crew member within roughly about 12 hours. What's [1:37] hindering the detection and extraction by the combat search and rescue crews of the second [1:42] crew member? Well, first and foremost, we don't know if the beacon itself is operational. Was it [1:49] serviceable in the first place? Was it damaged when he or she exited the aircraft? Or was it [1:56] damaged on landing? [1:57] It's important to remember also that certain powers have the ability to hand information [2:05] to Iran to get around that encryption. So it's very, very important to remember that [2:11] in terms of that extraction, the longer it goes on, also the greater the Iranian forces [2:17] are going to flood into that area to seek out this individual, whoever he or she is. [2:24] And are there any scenarios where the second crew member is in the area? [2:28] Second crew member could have been captured, but the Iranians aren't letting on to that? [2:34] Well, yes. The Iranians, no doubt, want to find this individual if they already haven't done so. [2:42] Because if I put my nasty head on, I will have kept saying, yes, we can't find this [2:49] individual whatsoever. Because what they will do, or might have the capability to do, [2:54] is fire that beacon in, draw the American forces in, [2:59] to take them out as well. So that's important to remember that. They're not going to play [3:03] to any rules of letting this person, he or she, just get away scot-free. [3:08] So you're saying there's a scenario where they could have actually captured the second [3:12] individual, but then they'll turn that beacon on, which will then draw in additional combat [3:17] search and rescue forces from the US? [3:18] Correct. They could turn the whole scenario on its head. [3:22] So the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, they're obviously going to be placing a huge priority on finding this [3:30] second crew member. What tactics will their hunter force be using in order to facilitate that? [3:35] Well, they'll be using all the available manpower, but in particular drones, dogs, vehicles of any sort. [3:42] And also, they'll be firing up the locals in the area to go out themselves, because they'll be well-versed [3:50] in the local area where people can hide, secrete themselves. So they'll be using all the assets they can do [4:00] to locate them. [4:01] So they're going to be using all the available manpower, but in particular drones, dogs, vehicles of any sort. [4:02] And also, they'll be using all the available manpower, but in particular drones, dogs, vehicles of any sort. [4:03] And we've also got the Basij forces, the volunteer militia, voluntary militia force, if you like, which scale up to [4:10] hundreds of thousands on a wartime footing, potentially millions. [4:12] I'm assuming they might be involved as well. [4:14] Absolutely, Mikey, because they'll be going all out to try and locate this person, whoever he or she is, because it's a huge [4:21] coup for them if they do so. [4:24] Now, I remember when I was operating over Baghdad, we were trained in conduct after capture. [4:29] That was operating in an urban environment. [4:31] What does conduct after capture look like, potentially, for this second crew member? [4:36] Well, as with anybody who's captured, they're going to suffer first and foremost from the shock of capture. [4:42] But the training they should have gone through, and that refresher training they should have gone through, [4:47] should have heightened their awareness to the pressures they'll be under, self and system-induced. [4:52] And they will be interrogated, without doubt, but as I always like to say, and use the term, [4:59] say whatever you want, but whatever you say. [5:01] They say nothing. [5:02] They will try to remain solid, as we say, stand on the island. [5:08] I cannot answer that question, sir, depending on what that question is, because what the [5:13] Iranians will be trying to do is trip that person up for the hope that they're going [5:19] to elicit some information that's useful to them. [5:22] And what type of techniques will the Iranians be using to kind of wear that person down? [5:26] Well, they could be using isolation. [5:28] The torture is probably put to one side. [5:31] Well, they could be using isolation. [5:32] Because that elicits nothing. [5:34] So they'll be using isolation, they'll be using hunger, they'll be using sleep deprivation, [5:44] but also an individual who's asked to stand or sit for a long time in certain stress positions. [5:51] That will again wear that person down. [5:53] And added into that, of course, the individual themselves will be greatly, well, suffering, [5:58] if you like, potentially from their own self and system-induced pressures. [6:02] And that can be many. [6:04] And some of them can be quite wild. [6:07] Because when you are in that position, of course, you're isolated. [6:11] So in terms of your own mind, you could be then going back through your own life, wondering [6:17] what you or he or she should have done better. [6:20] As I used to say, forget it. [6:22] It's done. [6:23] It's over with. [6:24] So stay positive. [6:25] Think. [6:26] Think what you're going to say. [6:28] Think about your surroundings around you. [6:31] And look for those opportunities. [6:33] Look for opportunities to push back where needed. [6:36] And what type of information, if the scenario is that the IRGC, the Iranians have captured [6:42] this second crew member, what type of information will they be looking to get from that person? [6:46] Well, they'll be looking for their modus operandi. [6:49] They'll be looking at how they operate, what future plans, if any, which I doubt anybody's [6:55] going to, that individual is going to allude to, because any such plans, whatever, will [7:00] have been immediately changed in terms of codes. [7:02] Anything. [7:03] Anything like that whatsoever will have been swept off the board. [7:07] So they'll just be trying to elicit anything about this individual whatsoever, personally [7:13] even, to put pressure on that person to embarrass America. [7:17] And in terms from your extensive experience, from a propaganda perspective, so you've spoken [7:23] about trying to get information from that crew member. [7:26] But from a propaganda perspective, what will the Iranians be doing on that front? [7:30] Well, I foresee that they're going to put him in. [7:33] They're going to put him in. [7:34] He or she in front of the cameras, which is a good thing, because that allows them, [7:39] okay, allows the individual to be known to the world, because the Iranians obviously [7:43] are going to have to fess up if anything then happens to that individual, he or she. [7:48] But I think potentially they might even go for some sort of trial, okay, just to further [7:55] embarrass the Americans, rather like Gary Powers in the early 60s and the shoot down [8:00] there of the U-2 over Russia. [8:02] What type of... [8:03] What type of... [8:04] What type of propaganda strategy will the Iranians try and leverage if the scenario [8:13] is that crew member has been captured? [8:15] In what way will they try and leverage the fact that they could possibly have a crew [8:19] member from the U.S. military in terms of negotiations and the bigger picture? [8:25] Essentially, what they'll do is, I believe, is hold that person to hostage. [8:29] Okay. [8:30] Simple as that. [8:31] Okay. [8:32] This is what we want. [8:33] It could go on to the negotiating table and be part of the deal. [8:34] Okay. [8:35] Whatever is being talked about at this moment, and because, as we all know with the Americans, [8:43] they never leave anybody behind, and we think of Michael Durant in Blackhawk Down, in Mogadishu, [8:50] everybody came back, okay, including him, although he was held hostage, captured and [8:55] held hostage. [8:56] Is this a... [8:57] If indeed the scenario is that a crew member has been captured, is this a strategic failure [9:01] for the Trump administration? [9:02] Very much so. [9:03] Because, if you remember, what Trump has spoken about... [9:04] What? [9:05] What Trump has spoken about in the last few weeks, we have cleared this, we have [9:10] done this, we have done that, but for the pilots, who've actually had this situation [9:16] forced upon them, what we call is a huge dislocation of expectations, Mikey. [9:22] They are expecting to go in, not be compromised, but yet they've been shot down, which will [9:28] be a huge shock to them. [9:30] Now, at a March 13th news briefing about the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, U.S. defense [9:37] secretary Pete Hegseth proclaimed, and I quote, [9:39] We will keep pushing, keep advancing, no quarter, no mercy for our enemies. [9:44] Now, that phrase is widely understood to mean taking no prisoners or rejecting surrender [9:50] and killing the prisoners instead. [9:55] Do Hegseth's comments, in your view, put this second crew member, if indeed they are captured, [10:00] at greater risk? [10:01] No. [10:02] I don't believe they do put the person at risk. [10:05] This individual, whoever he or she is, is at greater risk. [10:07] I don't think so. [10:08] He's of immense, immense value to them, and they'll use that to beat the administration [10:13] with. [10:15] Simple as that. [10:16] So all Hegseth was on about was political grandstanding to his magna base. [10:21] Fascinating insights. [10:22] Thanks so much for coming in. [10:23] Thank you, Mikey.