What to look out for in the English local elections — BBC Newscast

[0:00] hello it's adam in the election cast studio which is actually the newscast studio with no change [0:05] whatsoever and it's chris it's a election cast westminster nerve center hq and it's alex in the [0:10] makeshift election cast home studio great which is your regular home you haven't heard a second [0:19] property just to make it i don't know why i'm getting so obsessed about whether election cast [0:22] is actually that different from newscast anyway um chris let's get back to work and you've been [0:26] working well you work a lot every day but you've been pounding the streets of britain this week [0:31] yeah i've been on a little bit of a a tour in england scotland and wales we reckon we did about [0:37] 900 miles by train which was fun and the weather was pretty kind to us which was which was good [0:43] trying to sort of pull to pull away at and tease away at some of well two themes that in their own [0:51] way tie together the english local contests where they're happening in england and then the devolved [0:57] elections in scotland and wales and obviously there's loads of variety loads of variation loads [1:01] of things that are different both between and within contests in england between and within [1:07] contests in scotland and the same in wales let alone the differences between them but the two themes [1:11] we sort of alighted upon was one the nature of the challenge for labor which is significant in multiple [1:18] geographic and party political directions and yes that is often the case for the party that is in [1:25] government at westminster when there are elections between german elections but i think there's a [1:29] particular sort of assembly of headaches potentially for labor and then and this overlaps with that first [1:36] theme um the uh the rise of multi-party politics through whichever nation uh you look at it from so [1:46] that's kind of what i've been trying to tease away at with some pieces that are gonna be on the [1:50] television uh this weekend and on the radio and online too i look forward to watching them or [1:55] clicking the play button on online platforms to view them and i think in this episode of election [1:59] cast we might zoom in on england a bit because we've done quite a lot of chat about scotland and [2:03] about wales and we don't want to neglect england um alex just in terms of the geography of this week [2:08] what where have you been yeah so well i've been in the last kind of seven days i've been to cheshire i've been to [2:13] the west midlands walsall in particular westminster a little jot there in between and then north [2:19] yorkshire so yeah a couple maybe not as many miles as chris but getting a few miles in and so chris if [2:24] we do then just kind of zoom out and look at the the map of england so the numbers are there are about [2:29] 5 000 seats up for grabs and about 136 local authorities there are also the six mayors uh as well [2:38] um have you managed to get your head around kind of what it looks like on the map because that's the [2:42] thing i always struggle with because to me it ends up just being a lot of place names [2:46] it is a lot of place names and when you look at the maps and we've been using some maps in the tv [2:52] pieces we're editing right now so i've been staring at them you obviously get a sea of color in scotland [2:57] and wales because there's elections everywhere and it's and it's clearly more piecemeal in england [3:02] and i'm conscious there'll be newscasters listening who will have heard a swirl of conversation about [3:07] elections and not unreasonably think well hang on there aren't any round here because that is the [3:11] case uh clearly in some places i think there's a real uh not exclusively but a very much an urban [3:19] an urban focus um in england um which to an extent sharpens the challenge for labor because that tends [3:26] to be spots where again broad sweep here but where they are traditionally pretty strong in other words [3:31] the capacity to lose seats is um is quite um uh significant the other thing that we should always [3:38] say it's kind of golden rule of these conversations isn't it when we're looking at any kind of election [3:43] but particularly through the prism of english local elections when were seats last contested because [3:49] that's the baseline against which each individual party's performance will be measured so it's a snapshot in [3:56] time back to which we pivot when we're then comparing well how many seats as a party gained [4:02] or lost clearly there is variation between elections because uh people can switch sides or there might [4:08] be by elections or or whatever at a local authority uh level but we tend to do a comparison from one set [4:14] of elections uh to uh to the next so making sure that that that is done in our crunching of where [4:22] parties were last time this is where they end up this time is key to and also alex just remind us of the [4:26] rule of thirds that is in action in lots of places in england just another layer of complexity to some [4:32] quite already complicated systems of local government in england means that there are different [4:37] election cycles for different councils and it means that some councils will elect just a third of [4:42] the seats that are up and they do that kind of every year that's what election by thirds means so [4:47] not the whole council just a third of them there are other councils this year where every seat is [4:52] up for election and they are called all out councils and just on the point that chris was making about [4:58] the sort of baseline for comparison most but not all of the councils that are up this time in england [5:04] were last contested in 2022 and in terms of the sort of political landscape then if you remember we [5:10] were sort of in the heart of party gate and which is important context to remember how things have [5:16] shifted now you know different party in westminster than there is now and the political landscape has [5:22] changed quite considerably and it is it's every possibility that i think if you believe the [5:27] polls if you've been out there talking to people and if you just look at some of the kind of individual [5:31] political battles that are going on council by council that it will end up like quite a patchwork [5:37] of control across different local authorities this time round and i think what's quite interesting about [5:43] it even though not every council is up in england and they are concentrated in the urban areas there are [5:48] also some quite big rural councils so in east anglia or south coast like hampshire which are up this time [5:54] around as well i think the old kind of political map of england you used to have areas that you would [6:01] count as sort of true blue tory or what became known as that famous red wall and labour heartland [6:09] territory in the west midlands in the north of england it just feels like this set of elections may and we [6:15] don't know but it may well just add to that notion of this huge shift in the political geography of the [6:21] country where there are no sort of guaranteed areas where a party's just gonna storm home anymore [6:29] i think it's exactly that and and i think just teasing away alex at one of your observations there [6:34] which i think is key for newscasters understanding how the results play out and then some of the stories [6:38] if you like that'll emerge from the results which is that if you are in a council where it's a third of [6:44] seats that are up just mathematically irrespective of the the numbers the balance of power going in [6:50] mathematically the scope for significant electoral or political change is clearly limited isn't it [6:55] because only a third of seats can possibly change hands if they were to all change hands whereas [7:00] where you're in places where they are all up so for instance london then the scope for change should [7:07] the electorate choose to go for that is much more significant and certainly in terms of the the [7:13] stuff that i've been working on these last few days looking at london there's sometimes a journalistic [7:18] instinct and an admirable wholesome journalistic instinct in fact it's a key part of your job isn't [7:22] it alex to to ensure that national media organizations are not too london-centric not too london-focused [7:28] given the proportion of national journalists who live and work in london the counter to that particularly [7:34] in the context of these elections is that london is um is going to be really important in particular [7:40] for labor there's a big concentration of labor's members in london labor going into the election to [7:46] control uh the vast majority of london councils and then they face uh challenges political challenges [7:55] labor in london from kind of every conceivable direction you know the greens in places like hackney [8:00] in east london reform from places like bexley in the southeast conservatives in places like [8:05] wandsworth liberal democrats in places like merton in the in the south uh in the southwest so it's a [8:11] it's one of those things where keeping an eye not of clearly not just on them there's loads of [8:15] fascinating concepts birmingham and elsewhere around uh england but uh where london in particular [8:19] in terms of the psychology in particular of the labor party afterwards uh we should keep an eye on [8:25] two observations about that one about london is like back to what alex was saying about the rule [8:30] of thirds actually london is one of the places where all the seats are up for elections so all [8:35] the elections are kind of up for grabs so it's a place where you could see a lot of change that is [8:39] very visible um so rather than in some areas of the country where it'll be just some nibbling the [8:46] change will be nibbling around the edges potentially and then the second point about our our multi-party [8:51] politics era whether it's five parties or six parties we've we've been living in this this [8:56] multi-party era for a little while now but if the main focus of your national politics is the house [9:01] of commons well that's still basically set up mainly for two parties the government and the opposition [9:07] and so this is going to be an amazing moment where the five or six party politics actually exists [9:12] for real as opposed to the slightly curtailed version that we get at westminster every day alex [9:18] yeah and i think there are two really interesting points about that so the first thing is if you [9:22] remember after the 2024 general election when people compared the kind of number of votes cast [9:28] to the seats one there became a bit of a conversation about whether the voting system that we currently [9:34] have in england is suitable for what seems to be you know a kind of different mood in the electorate and [9:39] i just wonder if there might be a renewed conversation now some people are totally in favor of the voting [9:44] system as it works other people really really aren't but if you there might be a renewed [9:48] conversation about whether the voting system is suitable for an era of multi-party politics if [9:53] that's what we end up being in for some time to come and the other really interesting aspect about [9:58] this is that it's entirely possible because now there are lots of different parties vying for votes [10:04] that you might end up with some councils including the councils where only a third of the seats are up [10:08] for election where they slip into no overall control which is the technical term meaning there isn't [10:14] one party that wins enough of the seats to take outright control of the local authority [10:18] so you could end up in a situation where there are different parties in a local area trying to [10:23] figure out how they're going to work together to run local authorities now that is absolutely not [10:28] entirely unheard of that happens actually a lot of local authorities across england but i think if that [10:34] becomes you know even on a much bigger scale after these elections it will be interesting to see how [10:39] that works and it will also be really interesting to see which parties at local level decide they [10:45] want to work alongside other parties and which ones don't so that's a sort of another potential kind of [10:51] factor of where we might find ourselves after this set of elections quick a couple of numbers and i'm [10:57] just chipping in on our conversation about london a second ago so all 32 councils up for election [11:01] going into it two thirds are run by labour so you know let's see how that shakes out and it may be that [11:08] they go backwards it significantly in some councils but still maintain control because they were just [11:13] so so so far ahead uh beforehand but yeah just a little a little stat to throw into the london pot [11:19] there although there's an interesting point here alex and i'm thinking about kent because reform [11:25] seized control of kent a previous set of local elections and everyone was like right this is a [11:30] chance to see what reform are like in power um but it it's not like we're focusing on what happens in [11:37] kent every day so it's not like a real-time 24-7 experiment is it we we at a national level [11:42] sort of only hear about it at kind of certain points yeah i think i think that's completely [11:47] right because actually it was in the last year's set of local elections where reform immediately [11:52] after that set of elections won outright control of 10 county councils and then actually ended up [11:57] governing a couple more for various reasons but yeah i mean that was widely seen as a kind of test of [12:03] the party in power quite simply because of the fact they haven't governed anything before and [12:07] no this is a party that was sort of pitching itself as the big nucleus on the block and this insurgent [12:11] party and they had their eyes fixed on downing street and so there was and has been a lot of [12:15] scrutiny arguably more than other local authorities have had about what reform has done with the power [12:21] that it's had at local authority level and kent by the party's own omission has been their sort of [12:26] flagship council you know the window of what reform might look like in local government so there has [12:32] been a lot of attention on kent county council and you know the moments that capture the national [12:39] attention are the moments when we have seen you know internal arguments within the reform party kind [12:45] of burst out into the open there are other local authorities that reform is running and you know again [12:51] they have had some scrutiny we've done a series of pieces about lancashire county council which has been [12:55] under reform control what will be interesting and i i think it's almost impossible to measure really [13:02] as to whether or not the performance whether people think it's been good or not of reform in local [13:07] government actually plays into this set of elections you know i don't know if people are sort of looking [13:13] at other local authorities that reform has won and judging the party on it for their area because i [13:18] wonder if they do that for other parties you know i i don't know if people look to the conservative [13:23] council down the road and say oh i like or don't like the sound of that all the same with a liberal [13:28] democrat council somewhere and say i like or don't like the sound of that it sort of feeds into this [13:33] really crucial question about how much people are voting on local issues because this is about local [13:38] authorities that control social care and lots of services people rely on and you know have a hugely [13:43] important role to play with roads and high streets and all the rest of it and how much people are sort of [13:47] sensing the national political mood and i think that's always a kind of difficult gauge in a set [13:52] of local elections like this i'd argue that probably both come into play in most places and also chris [13:58] it means you get well-known political figures being asked things that they don't really have an answer [14:02] for yet for example nigel farage on bbc essex the other day they're uh being asked about how someone [14:08] with adhd who was struggling in a mainstream school would be would be educated in alternative provision [14:14] because that is the sort of thing that local authorities are in charge of and he said i don't [14:19] have the answer to that yeah i've bumped into a couple of the party leaders in the last week or [14:24] so who have been heading into our newsroom here at westminster in order to do a round of interviews [14:30] with our bbc local and regional colleagues where they sit in fact in the very chair i am perched upon [14:37] right now and face a couple of hours of interrogation uh from uh bbc local radio colleagues and and [14:44] regional tally where perfectly reasonably they're asked about things like uh the question that was [14:50] put to mr farage by bbc essex and my goodness you know that's quite a test isn't it for a political [14:56] leader particularly on the specifics of something that potentially you know his party or whoever the [15:01] leader is uh could be in charge of in a matter of uh a week or so's uh so's time and yeah i seeing a [15:09] few of them emerge out of those rounds and i can relate to it because i've done it as a reporter and [15:13] you're not being held to account as a reporter as they are obviously um that's that's quite the thing [15:18] and the and the potential banana skins around that are huge and also just an alex a reminder about the [15:23] greens like the greens have been in charge in brighton for example in local government and actually [15:29] the scottish greens which is a separate party from the greens of england and wales were in [15:32] the scottish government for a while yeah i mean just sticking on the sort of local election england [15:37] theme you're completely right about the scottish greens but you know when the greens won their [15:41] first outright majority on a council in england i think i'm right in saying it was 2023 with mid [15:47] suffolk council and that was the first time they've run an outright majority to run a local authority [15:52] now they have been as part of sort of rainbow coalitions or sharing power with other [15:58] parties or running as minority administrations other local authorities and as you say brighton [16:02] for a long time was a real stronghold of green support not least because they had caroline lucas [16:06] the former party leader there as an mp for a long time but yeah i do think there is this thing about [16:11] you know parties it is i guess for these parties it's sort of dual challenge because these are the [16:18] parties which according to the polls um and obviously we always treat the polls with a pinch of salt but [16:23] even if you look at recent election results these are the parties that are sort of you know on the [16:28] rise that have got momentum behind them and a lot of the messaging of these parties is about doing [16:33] things differently to the parties that have come before so proposing in their minds policies that [16:38] would affect the change that they think that voters want because the voters are disillusioned with [16:44] what have traditionally been the more dominant parties in westminster at least and i think the sort [16:50] of thing for these parties is how you then land that message alongside the sort of realities of [16:56] governing when at local authority level whatever party takes control of a local council is going to [17:02] face a very similar set of challenges to parties that have gone before because councils have [17:07] statutory obligations to provide certain services including things like children's services support for [17:12] children with scnd special educational needs and disabilities and social care they're things they have to [17:16] they're things they have to do by law and they eat up a lot of council budgets so the sort of flexibility [17:22] at local authority level is to some degree limited by the financial constraints that places on councils [17:27] and so it is an interesting challenge for these parties who are coming to government at local [17:33] authority level or may well be coming to government at local authority level after this set of elections [17:37] and chris just in terms of the conservatives and lib dams i suppose this is going to be a test of [17:42] two things that have become truisms at different sort of time periods one that lib dams are very strong [17:47] locally and okay they might not have the profile they think they deserve nationally but they [17:52] do incredibly well when it comes to local government and then with the conservatives that there's a sort [17:57] of um chemi bedenock renaissance going on yeah i mean it's interesting when you look at the conservatives [18:02] and the lib dams and you think here we are talking about the second and third biggest parties [18:07] in westminster i think there's a reasonable likelihood when we're reporting the results of [18:13] these elections around britain that the conservatives and the liberal democrats will feature quite a long [18:18] way down the list if you like um even though clearly it'll bear scrutiny how well or not they do so the [18:27] expectation uh from the conservatives is that they won't do uh particularly well that some of these [18:33] seats were last contested in 2021 when they're on something of a bounce uh from the uh covid uh [18:40] vaccine they still feel that an element of the kind of wash through of their calamitous general [18:45] election defeat still has to wash through in various places but kemi bedenock who has had it certainly [18:50] in confidence terms and in prominence terms in many senses and if you like westminster victory terms [18:56] a a good six or seven months leading the kind of political charge and all the lord mandelson stuff [19:02] for instance and the so-called humble address and all of those documents that are coming etc etc um [19:08] they still expect to do pretty badly uh the difference being or the political context being [19:14] that labor will likely do much much worse and obviously the party of government is more likely to be a [19:20] bigger headline generator than the party of opposition as for the lib dems they're confident of making [19:25] some gains it's almost like a mirror image really of the conservatives they're hoping to make gains in [19:30] places particularly in the rural south of england where they made gains at the conservatives expense [19:36] two years ago at the general election and they think they've got the potential to do the same [19:41] in similar places at surrey hampshire for instance as they did uh a couple of years back but their likely [19:49] gains and the conservatives likely losses as i say will will probably beyond the the local context [19:55] where of course it matters if that's a significant story where you are uh probably will generate [20:00] fewer headlines than uh labor reform plied cymru and the scottish national party across uh the whole uh [20:07] british context and chris uh introduce us to somebody who's very important in uh insider circles [20:14] at these times uh lord hayward's a conservative peer yeah so lord hayward is a conservative peer he is also a [20:20] a sophologist an elections expert he kind of tries to take off any any kind of uh partisan hat and and [20:27] have a good crunch of the numbers he loves a number crunch uh and looking at the uh the kind of [20:33] cephalogical picture around uh around the country so he has done some predictions so for what they're worth [20:40] because you'll get predictions from all sorts of folk it's quite good for someone like me in fact all three [20:44] of us to read out somebody else's predictions rather than uh make our own uh so so this thing [20:48] it's the cowardly way out but here we go lord hayward sort of widely uh respected so he reckons [20:55] that the smp uh will win in scotland but be short of a majority that plied up with the largest party in [21:00] terms of both votes and seats in wales let's see because wouldn't it be fascinating if one party had the [21:06] most seats and another party had the most votes and it's unlikely a party will win outright in wales so how [21:12] how does a um how does a government be formed there so the story there um as possibly in scotland [21:19] will rumble on beyond the uh results and then in england i'll just cancel through his numbers [21:25] he reckons labour will lose about 1850 seats he reckons reform will gain about 1550 um gaining [21:35] big from labour and the conservatives primarily outside of uh london the conservatives will lose 600 [21:41] seats uh the greens will gain the greens will gain 500 lib dems will gain 150 and independence will gain [21:49] 250 it's worth just underlining that point about independence i'm straying into alex's territory here [21:55] but um when we think of british politics we tend to think of the well either in established or insurgent [22:01] political brands operating under a kind of uh either either great britain wide or uh nations within [22:08] great britain wide uh badge um like labour conservatives applied scottish national party [22:15] independence in english local contests are depending on where you are can be very significant with all [22:22] sorts of outlooks and perspectives and all the rest of it um but they are some they are a collective uh that [22:28] shouldn't be discounted and a suggestion from lord hayward of 250 seat gains for independence [22:32] many in east london birmingham and lancashire