What to expect as voters head to polls for May elections — BBC Newscast

[0:00] hello it is adam in the newscast studio and hello it's laura in the newscast studio and laura in [0:04] classic style because you've got many programs to make over the next 36 hours you're going to be [0:07] here for about 10 minutes i'll be here for 10 minutes marvelous 10 minutes that let's hope they [0:11] will be yes and that will seem very short compared to the 36 hours of broadcasting you will be doing [0:16] yes we are going to be on air not me all the time but me much of the time for 21 hours uh on bbc one [0:21] it's almost like there's a lot of results and a lot of different elections to get our heads around [0:25] almost like there's a big contest on um should we just remind everyone what we're actually looking [0:29] out for it so we've got in england yes lots of local authorities but not all of them 136 of them [0:36] 5 000 councillors that's right more than 5 000 councillors as you said 136 town halls up for [0:42] grabs they are dotted around the country not everywhere but all the boroughs in london some [0:48] other big councils like manchester and birmingham have got elections too but also lots of smaller [0:54] councils too in all sorts of bits of england so yes so there's england then the scotland [1:00] and there's wales and there's hugely vital national contests for the scottish parliament [1:06] and the welsh parliament otherwise known as the senate and the good news is when laura has to go [1:10] off and do her day job i will not be sat here on my own because we've got some other newscasters [1:14] with us chris mason is at westminster hello chris hello hello felicity evans host of our sister [1:19] podcast wales cast is in cardiff hello felicity hello adam and bbc scotland editor james cook [1:25] is outside the scottish parliament hello james hello adam james have you built your own studio [1:30] for these elections it looks very um sophisticated where you're sitting yeah they've built me this [1:34] whole studio it's just for newscast it's just right it's nice isn't it are you gonna send me the bill [1:39] it's definitely someone else's studio that we're um squatting in it does look good and before we get [1:45] into the issues just like the sort of the science bit felicity the big news in wales apart from the [1:50] results and the campaigns is the new voting system yes that's right i'm a bit jealous that james has [1:55] got a special studio and i'm making do here with the cardiff newsroom but feels like we're just on a [1:59] team's call with you yeah absolutely i know i couldn't even get the newsroom camera uh this evening [2:04] uh yes it's all up in the air in wales it's the first time that we've uh had a system like this [2:11] so we've really got very little to compare it to in terms of baselines because everything's different [2:16] we've got a new voting system which is more proportional than first past the post but not [2:21] totally proportional we've got new constituencies there are only 16 constituencies now but they are [2:28] big and they will elect six ms's each which means we'll also have a bigger senate after thursday [2:36] when the new ms's are voted in and we'll have 96 new ms's instead of the old number which was 60 so [2:44] virtually everything is different about this election and and chris i'll come to you for some [2:48] some big picture analysis in a second but laura just before you go and carry on your rehearsals i mean [2:52] is there a big kind of overarching plot line for these elections or is it as it sounds lots of [2:58] different contests it's both actually so if i can say it's both it is both because first and foremost [3:04] local elections and elections for hollywood and for the senate are always primarily about who are the [3:11] people going to be who are going to make decisions that genuinely make a difference to the quality of [3:15] our lives that's the most important thing that's what they're all about however given that there is a [3:21] government with a very tricky position given that there is a government who have been very unpopular [3:27] given that there is a leader who has long been seen by many in his party as not the right person for [3:34] the job without question the second part of this story which is probably what will develop more kind [3:39] of late friday and into saturday and sunday is whether or not this could be the moment when when [3:46] keir starmer's rivals for the job actually have the bottle to do something about it is the labour party [3:54] rather than whispering in corridors sending angry whatsapps to each other briefing journalists with [4:01] only the odd mp with the bottle to go over the top and say we should change the leader is this going [4:06] to be the moment that the party actually does that we simply don't know the answer to that question [4:11] it's possible it's absolutely not inevitable but it strikes me that the question after these results [4:18] is likely to be as we go into the weekend what is the evidence that the labour party has in front of it [4:24] that changing the leader would improve their standing and what is the evidence that keir starmer can [4:31] actually change and regain anything of the party's popularity because whether it's the polls whether it's the [4:39] conversations that we've all had on the road whether it's the conversations we've had over a period of many months [4:44] with labour mps msps senate members activists members of the public they've got a very big problem [4:51] and this weekend has long been seen as the moment that whether or not labour is going to try and fix that problem [5:00] that said what i would just say a member of the cabinet said to me recently [5:03] political changes when people think about a big moment actually it's like when you see the lighthouse in the distance [5:09] and when you're actually at the lighthouse that's not the moment when anybody does anything because [5:15] we all know it's coming so you know i know that there are people being drafted into downing street [5:18] to help fight for the prime minister's authority on friday obviously people have been talking for ages [5:22] about what they might do this weekend often actually doesn't turn out to be the moment at all [5:27] i think i need to spend more time sailing to understand that metaphor well just if you can see it coming [5:31] right if you can see this big fat problem coming with you then you know how to go around it [5:36] and actually so i probably explained it very badly no no not at all when it was expressed to me it was [5:41] probably much more effective so sorry about that laura you please go whenever you need to go [5:46] well we'll all be reunited i think at various points over the next few days so thank you for having me [5:50] today newscast is always a joy to be with you and enjoy your copious bananas and nuts which i learned [5:54] after doing my own all-nighter last year is actually the healthiest way to get through these things [5:58] and then chocolate on day two tea all night remember tea all night and then coffee in the morning [6:01] coffee at night no you go laura koonsberg too much there we go laura thank you very much pleasure um [6:08] chris um laura was talking about what might come after but i think let's for for now focus on what [6:13] we've been reporting on in the last couple of weeks in the last couple of months from the campaign trail [6:17] um i noticed the last few nights on the 10 o'clock news you've had this magnum opus of traveling around [6:22] all the elections so i feel you've probably got a very good sense of just how the whole country feels at [6:26] the moment well i wouldn't want to overstate that i mean that's my job to do that [6:30] i've done a fair bit of dashing about but i think you know as we were exploring there [6:36] with laura that the very nature of this set of elections is actually a reminder of the kind of [6:42] complexity of how we're governed around the uk so places with elections places without them uh there [6:50] are differences within and between the contests happening in england in scotland and wales uh so [6:57] that's an added level of complexity devolve parliaments being elected in scotland and wales [7:02] english local authorities in parts of england and then some mayoral races too and sometimes it's all [7:08] out councils where every seat is being contested in other places it's uh a third of uh council seats [7:15] being contested and of course those places in northern ireland england without any contests um at all [7:20] and i think because of that the nature of that complexity it is you know i can't claim to be savvy [7:28] about the precise mood in you know parts of west yorkshire or parts of london that i'm not familiar [7:34] with or parts of you know you name it but i think what we we can take away and the parties across the [7:40] piece acknowledge is that kind of range of competitiveness that there is now both geographically and in [7:47] party political terms how labor and the conservatives both feel squeezed um at the uh at the same time [7:55] and how at least for now this kind of multi-party politics in a multi-polity uk with uh the different [8:06] nations having their own if you like perspectives and arguments and conversations about what matters [8:12] and who's up and who's down etc etc that for me is the sort of takeaway uh thought at this point and [8:18] then obviously once the uh the electorate has taken its collective set of decisions then the the stewing [8:25] over the outcome begins and james i mean that street level and the english local authority elections [8:30] so much of it seems to have boiled down to potholes i think we're in the middle of a pothole crisis if you [8:34] judge uh how angry and vol voluminous the um the complaints about the state of the roads have been [8:41] if you listen to like an english local radio phone in um even though actually english local authorities [8:46] their main jobs is looking after adult social care and and uh facilities for children with special [8:52] educational needs and disabilities what are things you've just been hearing time and time and time [8:56] again in in the scottish campaign trail i mean i i would i mean as we discussed with alex [9:01] forsyth you know that issue of the the the state of of of the cities the state of the the country [9:08] and and to use a very highfalutin phrase the public realm has definitely come up that that's [9:14] come up a lot but pollsters will tell you that what comes up over and over and over again and this is [9:21] you know this is the case in the private polling of the political parties as well because they all [9:25] talk about it constantly is the cost of living it's the cost of living it's the economy i actually [9:30] think it's interesting if you add together the nhs comes very very high in list of voter concerns [9:35] as well but if you add cost of living economy housing so arguably a cost of living issue together [9:44] they just seem to massively outweigh everything else there are a lot of unhappy voters and adam [9:50] there's a lot of undecided voters or at least a decent number maybe it's been coming down uh as we've [9:55] get it got closer to the post and don't forget some people have voted you know in in in by post [10:01] already but you know it's been they've been hard times haven't they we've had faltering growth we've [10:05] had war we've had high inflation problems in the nhs so i suppose two questions who do voters blame [10:12] and who do they trust to fix what's going on here i i think they're two of the big questions [10:18] at the heart of this election and then felicity if we try and map those issues onto actual party politics [10:24] and campaigns how has that unfolded from your point of view in cardiff well i think james is bang on [10:30] about cost of living being the single biggest issue in this campaign but just to refer back to what [10:35] chris and laura uh were saying adam you know kia starmer is a big figure in the senedd election [10:42] campaign undoubtedly and elenaed morgan the current first minister and welsh labour leader is constantly [10:49] being asked about him only today she was asked whether he would have to resign on friday if there [10:55] was a bad set of election results and she said look i'm focusing on getting the vote out tomorrow i'm [11:00] not prepared to speculate about what might happen on friday so not a ringing endorsement there from [11:06] elenaed morgan currently but when you go out and speak to voters their big issues are cost of living [11:13] they are the state of the nhs you know we have long waiting times here in wales um and immigration [11:20] features heavily for some and obviously that's a big motivator for reform voters but in terms of [11:28] the way that that maps onto the larger picture obviously we have labour in power here in the senedd [11:33] for 27 years uninterrupted and we also have the double incumbency factor of an unpopular labour [11:41] government at a uk level and the fact that in wales we've had a century's worth of labour dominance [11:46] so if the polls are to be believed then you know i would suggest that the story on friday is wales [11:53] because we could see a a vote that changes a century's worth of politics here you know one single [12:00] vote and a labour dominance is is gone in wales for the first time in a hundred years i think it's a [12:06] fascinating sort of observation that and actually a challenge for us when we're broadcasting across [12:12] the uk to work out how we might anticipate telling the results depending on what they are because [12:18] clearly the prominence and significance of particular results will be determined by where it is you're [12:23] watching listening or reading around the uk but in a scenario and of course we uh we await the results [12:30] and the votes and decisions of millions of people but in a scenario uh where as looks very likely uh [12:37] labour are no longer uh leading the government in wales after these um uh elections and potentially [12:43] if the polls are to be believed are relegated into third uh place then that results the significance of [12:51] that result the ramifications psychologically it'll have for the labour party and therefore potentially [12:57] uh for the prime minister i think you we really shouldn't uh underestimate particularly in a [13:03] context where uh the the indications are we could see significant gains for reform in all three nations [13:10] of the uk that have elections this time scotland wales and england and as is widely expected if the [13:16] smp are the biggest party in the scottish parliament and head into another term of governance there yes that's [13:23] wounding for labour because a few years ago they might have anticipated winning there themselves [13:27] but um they remain in the uh in the amongst the also rounds if you like as opposed to as you were [13:34] saying there firstly being being toppled being removed from power particularly after so so long [13:40] this is the thing and you know i was speaking to one welsh labour campaigner about the experience on [13:44] the doorstep and you know you speak to a lot of candidates and they'll say to you look it's not as [13:47] bad as the polls say i mean they'll say it's bad but it's not as bad as the polls say but this chap then [13:53] followed up by saying to me i mean it's a bit they're treating us a bit like we're their ex you [13:57] know and with your ex you've you pass the period of absolutely hating them and then you go into the [14:03] period of just being indifferent to them and when i knock on the door i feel like i'm in that phase so [14:10] they don't hate us they're just indifferent to us now there are a lot of other candidates who will [14:15] absolutely challenge that take and say they are in with much more of a shout than the polls are [14:20] allowing them and i think there's really a talk over the muscle memory for a lot of voters when [14:24] they go in you know that tradition that culture of voting labor you know will they actually be able [14:29] to ditch that when push comes to shove we really don't know the answer but you know it looks like [14:34] a lot of welsh candidates are really reaching for some cold comfort from some of the things they've [14:38] been saying interesting normally on election programs when you talk about exes it's about where [14:42] people are putting their cross on the ballot paper so thank you for expanding that felicity and also [14:46] if you're watching us live on iplayer or the bbc news channel or any of the other places where we're [14:50] broadcasting this episode of newscast live you may spot that felicity has behind her a tv with this [14:56] podcast on it so it's kind of infinite yeah now she's looking at herself looking at herself looking [15:01] at herself forever and ever and ever um right a few of you have brought up um individual party leaders [15:06] we've talked about ellenard morgan and keir starmer in wales and maybe we just talk about some of the [15:10] other party leaders and how how they've been getting on throughout the campaign and and [15:14] may do over the next few days um chris zach polanski uh elected as leader of the green party [15:21] in england and wales because it's a separate party in scotland great fanfare lots of enthusiasm for him [15:26] amongst his own grassroots but he's been now confronted with what the scrutiny of being a [15:31] national level party leader at election time is really like yeah i think that's right you know zach [15:35] polanski i think has transformed the prominence of the green party of england and wales in a way [15:41] that i don't think we have seen in recent decades it's a party that has ebbed and flowed it's had its [15:47] higher moments and its lower moments in terms of prominence it's had some prominent figures [15:51] like caroline lucas for a long time the only uh green mp in parliament but since zach polanski's [15:57] election as the leader of the party in england and wales that their prominence their poll ratings their [16:03] by-election success the other month in gorton and denton in greater manchester has been really [16:08] quite something but with it as you say has come at no end of scrutiny the the latest two strands of [16:14] it so an investigation by the times which rooted out the detail that he had said that when he was [16:21] campaigning for the deputy leader of the green party a couple of uh years ago he'd suggested that he was [16:27] a spokesman for the british red cross which he now acknowledges in fact he was on the today program [16:32] this morning uh acknowledged that that wasn't accurate he had sort of worked for them he'd been [16:37] on a stage with a microphone in his hand uh seeking to help them with their fundraising etc but [16:42] acknowledged that that wasn't the same as being a spokesman and the party's also faced a lot of [16:46] scrutiny about some of its candidates and what they have said particularly allegations around um [16:53] anti-semitism so i think in the way that we've seen for nigel farage and all those questions about that [16:58] five million pound gift that he was in receipt of before the general election and before he was a [17:04] parliamentary candidate but which he didn't declare and his rivals suggest he really ought to have done [17:08] and he says he didn't need to yeah you get a cranking up of scrutiny don't you that comes with the [17:14] territory of election campaigns particularly if you are you know if you're polling well if you're if [17:20] you're if you're prominent and polling well then the scrutiny notches up that uh that fair amount and [17:27] zach polanski is you know feeling that and there's some there's some evidence from some uh polling [17:33] around individual leaders that the last week or so has been has been difficult uh for him particularly [17:40] that retweet uh of the remarks relating to how the metropolitan police officers handled handled the [17:47] detention of the um alleged uh suspect in the golders green attack so um yeah in an intriguing and [17:55] not always easy couple of weeks for zach polanski as prominent uh and vociferous if you like as the [18:01] green party are and james chris mentioned nigel farage leader of reform uk they've got their own leader [18:06] in scotland malcolm offered i mean the received wisdom a few years ago in scotland is that nigel [18:11] farage would almost be sort of laughed out of town as a comedy englishman but actually that received [18:16] wisdom has been turned on its head well we'll see i guess i i mean yes it certainly the polls suggest [18:24] that it's been turned on its head at least to a certain extent he's been up in scotland in the [18:30] campaign a bit less than i actually might have expected malcolm offered has not appeared in front [18:36] of the cameras at all today um i i my understanding is that he just didn't want to and and he's had you [18:43] know he's had a fairly you know robust relationship with the media he he said in one of the television [18:49] debates he made a specific point of of of declaring his wealth how much tax he'd paid 48 million pounds [18:56] he'd said he'd paid in tax he said i've got six homes five cars and six boats and he was challenging [19:02] the scottish greens to say do you want more people like me in the country or fewer fewer was their very [19:07] quick answer but he's not been he's and but then he didn't retreat from that message he's been tweeting [19:13] pictures of one of his boats and he's been saying look i'm aspirational i think we should cut taxes i [19:17] came from a hard you know working class background in in greenock which is not a uh with all due [19:23] respect to some both at tenverclyde not necessarily the richest part of the country so he has had an [19:30] interesting campaign and us sarwa the scottish labor leader adam has had an interesting campaign [19:35] as well i mean it's an extraordinary campaign really when you think about it because it began [19:39] or before it began he was calling for his own party leader the man he campaigned for to become [19:44] prime minister secure starmer to quit and he was doing that to sort of get it out of the way so [19:50] we could try to focus on the scottish national party and what he says are its failures in government [19:55] and i think this all sort of gets to the heart of what's going on with this with the elections in [20:00] scotland because i think a lot of this campaign has been a battle about framing it's been a battle about [20:07] who is the challenger the voters tell pollsters over and over again that they want some sort of change [20:14] so in a country which has two governments the scottish government and the uk government all [20:18] right this is an election about who will run the scottish government as laura points out but it has [20:22] two governments and obviously they intersect and one affects the other and one of those governments [20:27] wants fundamental constitutional change and some of the other parties want pretty dramatic change [20:32] not least the scottish greens and reform uk are saying the country should be run completely differently [20:37] you have the lib dems saying you know we have we think things can be fixed and improved as well [20:41] and then labor's saying no no no we're the change party so there's this real battle over who owns [20:47] change and and where i think that's going to you know whoever has won that battle will probably be [20:53] whoever wins the election and felicity in terms of the leader of plai cymry reen ap your worth um who [20:59] a few careers ago was a journalist um to what i mean he obviously presents himself as like mr wales but [21:05] he's not like mr wales like a sort of like the equivalent of alex salmon when he was campaigning for [21:10] independence for scotland when a few years ago is he no that's right i mean he's really soft peddled [21:16] the independence message during this election campaign and when he in various tv debates for [21:22] example when he's been asked directly about it he kind of answers the question with a question you [21:26] know so you know an audience member in one debate said to him look do you have an independence agenda [21:31] and all this sort of thing and his reply was do i have ambition for wales yes i do you know that sort [21:37] of thing what the party has said though is that uh and freena pyodweth has said is that i understand [21:42] that i've got to bring the people of wales with me and it's not going to happen without your agreement [21:47] uh so what the party has said in their manifesto is that they're going to spend around um uh that [21:53] they're going to spend around half a million pounds on a commission that will look at you know ways of [21:59] sort of developing the uh independence agenda if you like but he's also ruled out during the lifetime [22:05] of the next senate any attempt to hold a referendum on independence so it's something that you know he [22:11] is trying to draw attention away from i would say and he is focusing far more on presenting plied [22:19] cymru as the way to stop reform uh winning the senate election and i say winning no one is likely to [22:25] get a majority i'm talking about maybe being largest party here so he is trying to present this as a two [22:30] horse race plied cymru versus reform the other parties obviously are challenging that narrative [22:35] saying no under this new more proportional system it isn't just a two horse race you don't have to [22:40] vote like that and chris do you want to just say a few words about kemi badenock the conservative [22:45] leader and ed davie the lib dem leader and obviously bearing in mind what you said at the start [22:49] their parties are fighting different campaigns in different contexts around the uk but they are the [22:53] leaders of their their parties nationally yeah so a couple of things so in in summary the [22:58] conservatives are expecting to go backwards in these elections and the liberal democrats are [23:02] expecting to go forwards just to unpack both of those a little i think curiosity with kemi badenock [23:09] is that she leads a party and took over the leadership of a party that was nursing the colossal wound [23:16] of a colossal defeat at the last general election and since then the party has gone in many senses [23:23] backwards in the opinion polls and backwards in its head count of mps with the defections that [23:28] they've been to reform uk and yet the party uh the parliamentary party seems uh chipper it seems [23:36] relatively together the loss of people like robert jenner can think that two reformers actually helped [23:42] that there's a sense around kemi badenock and her mps that uh she has worked her way into the role that [23:49] she's more confident in the role that she is more prominent she appears to be outperforming her own [23:56] party in terms of um popularity perhaps that's inevitable given uh where the party was after such a [24:02] crushing uh general election uh defeat i think for her perspective in this set of elections they will [24:08] lose seats overall uh but it won't be as bad a night or series of days of results for them compared with [24:17] how it is for the labor party in all likelihood and so if you like their misery will be drowned out [24:23] by that that we expect the laser part labor party to have inflicted upon it as for the liberal democrats [24:29] they are scrapping in this sort of multi-party world they are no longer if you like as prominent a [24:36] alternative to the big two at westminster as they might once have been in some context because there [24:41] are so many others competing to kind of fill that uh slot um i think they will make advances particularly [24:49] in places where they made advances at the conservatives expense at the general election [24:53] a couple of years ago so places like surrey and hampshire in the uh south of england they've got their [24:58] eyes on places like stockport and and hull um as as well and i should say that for all of these contests [25:06] there's a full list of candidates on the uh bbc news website but yeah they are looking to make uh [25:11] some uh progress against what's been occasionally a bit of chat at westminster among some of their mps [25:17] privately about whether or not they are making the most of their 72 mps at westminster but i think ed [25:22] davy in all likelihood come the weekend will have things he can point to that that amounts of progress [25:27] from his perspective and then felicity will have this big moment of drama of the results in wales for [25:32] example and then actually there might be i'm not going to say chaotic but like actually forming a [25:36] government because there's a good chance no party will have won enough seats to be in charge on their [25:40] own yeah that's the probability that no party will get a majority you need to get 49 seats now and the [25:45] system really is engineered to to try to prevent one party getting a majority so then that begs the [25:52] question of how all this will come out in the wash i mean if reform is the largest party led by dan [25:57] thomas the welsh leader uh then arguably he's got limited options in terms of who he can work with [26:03] because the welsh conservatives have said that they would work with reform but uh the parties on the [26:08] left have said that they wouldn't so arguably that gives sreenap jodweth and plied more options the greens [26:14] who also are pro-independence for wales and the liberal democrats too although they've said they have a [26:19] red line on anything that would further the independence agenda so there's going to be a lot of horse [26:24] trading uh come the results being declared hopefully friday night maybe into saturday we'll see [26:30] and james will be reporting on a similar situation in scotland if the one if one party isn't big enough [26:35] to form a majority which is also what the electoral system in scotland was kind of designed to to make [26:40] the outcome of yeah outright victory is unusual in in the scottish parliament because as you point out [26:45] the electoral system is designed um to have a proportional element there are 73 constituency msps [26:55] elected first past the post that is to say the person who gets the most votes wins and then there [27:01] are 56 regional msps elected by proportional representation so that electoral system makes [27:07] minority or coalition government the norm there's only been one occasion in the seven seven elections [27:16] yeah there have been seven elections since devolution in 1999 and five of which if this is the seventh [27:22] isn't it so if the snp win this this will be their fifth victory in a row and there's only been one [27:27] that resulted in a majority and we know what happened that was 2011 the snp majority that led to a [27:32] referendum on independence and john swinney the scottish national party leader is campaigning on [27:38] that platform saying give me another majority and i will um effectively there will be another [27:44] independence referendum other parties completely reject that labour say no they won't it's up to [27:48] the uk government the supreme court has ruled that and the scottish conservatives have been [27:52] particularly keen to talk about this throughout the election campaign saying they are the defenders [27:58] of the union because that's worked well for them electorally in the past uh and they're [28:02] just hammering that point home again at this election they were second last time don't forget [28:07] there before this parliament behind me dissolved they were the second biggest party here and they [28:12] now the polls suggest they're they're really fighting for their place because um reform uk might be [28:19] taking some of their votes so they're really keen to hammer home this um pro union message right we're [28:25] approaching the end of this final episode of election cast slash newscast or at least the last one [28:30] before the results i'm going to give you all a final word and it's up to you what you leave us [28:34] with is it something that you are looking at in particular for over the next few days is it a niche [28:40] thing that maybe you think is underestimated and what's going to happen who wants to go first felicity [28:45] why don't you go first yeah thanks adam i mean one of the things i'm going to be looking at is turnout [28:49] because turnout's always been pretty low at senate elections it's never hit 50 percent yet and one of the [28:56] theories for that has been the lack of jeopardy in welsh senate elections the idea that a lot of [29:02] people don't bother to turn out and vote because they think it's baked in that labor will just get [29:07] back into government well obviously this time around there is actual jeopardy as we've already [29:12] discussed in the welsh senate election so that's going to put this theory to the test so i'm going to be [29:17] keeping an eye on turnout to see whether it is higher can it beat that 50 percent mark i think it's open [29:23] to question because you know speaking to a lot of people and going back to what james was saying there [29:27] about cost of living being a really dominant issue i think a lot of people are feeling pretty disillusioned [29:33] to be honest with the whole thing so we'll see what happens with turnout james i mean i think that the [29:41] interesting question is there are a lot of tight constituencies in scotland the polls have suggested [29:47] the smp are in a commanding position but actually it wouldn't take a huge amount to swing that in the [29:52] other direction that's the great hope for the labor party the scottish labor party one thing to look [29:58] for is if they do very badly if he comes third behind reform uk even if he comes second doesn't [30:04] ask sarwa have to resign but there's this saying in us politics that undecided voters and we've heard [30:09] there might be quite a lot of them always break for the challenger who is the challenger here you [30:15] know there's a big debate about that everyone's basically vying to say that one way or another [30:20] they are the challenger and so you know it's up to the voters now to decide who they want to run their [30:27] to run the scottish government to be in charge and the parliament which i'm sitting in front of here in [30:31] edinburgh and chris you've had ages to think up of a final word so it better be amazing psychology [30:37] and numbers the psychology of the electorate that will drive the numbers that we unpick on friday and [30:42] saturday which will then drive the psychology of the political leaders in responding to what they have [30:48] i've been presented with by the electorate and that's where the story will march on from friday [30:53] and saturday onwards and that was an excellent final thought thank you very much felicity thank [30:58] you very much thank you pleasure as always james thanks to you thanks adam great to talk to you all [31:03] and that's all for this episode of newscast we recorded some extra material which you can listen [31:07] to in the podcast edition which is available to download now from bbc sounds and we will be back [31:13] with multiple newscasts as we digest the results of this huge set of elections across the uk bye