What the Iran war means for Gaza — The Global Story

[0:00] What's life like these days in Gaza? [0:02] In October of last year, the first phase of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect. [0:10] And at the time, there was a sense of relief. [0:12] The remaining Israeli hostages being held by Hamas since October 7th were released. [0:17] And there was a sense of hope that the daily destruction in Gaza might end. [0:26] But in the months since, with Venezuela, then Iran, not to mention Lebanon, [0:31] President Trump, his diplomats, and frankly, the world's attention have all been diverted elsewhere. [0:40] So what does that mean for the people in Gaza and the international pressure for a lasting ceasefire? [0:47] From the BBC in London, I'm Asma Khalid, and welcome to The Global Story on YouTube. [0:58] So the other day, we got a message from a listener of our show. [1:01] Randolph, he emailed us at theglobalstoryatbbc.com with an idea. [1:05] I was wondering whether it might be possible for you to make an episode about the current situation in Gaza and what lies ahead. [1:13] It seems international attention has shifted away from Gaza. [1:18] That's why I would really appreciate an episode exploring the current situation there, [1:23] the daily lives of civilians, and the latest development regarding the second phase of the ceasefire. [1:29] Well, thank you for messaging, Randolph. [1:31] You asked, and we here at The Global Story try to deliver. [1:34] And so to help us do that, I've called up my colleague, the BBC's Yolande Nell, [1:39] a Middle East correspondent who's in Jerusalem. [1:42] Welcome to the show. Welcome to The Global Story. [1:44] Hi there. Good to be with you. [1:45] Yolande, when the ceasefire was first announced, it seemed like there was relief amongst many Gazans. [1:51] I recall hearing that at the time. [1:53] Now, here we are having this conversation more than six months later. [1:57] And I just want to begin with a really broad question, which is, [2:00] what is life like now after some of that initial relief died down [2:04] and some of the world's attention has indeed shifted away? [2:07] To tell you the truth, I mean, important to begin with, say out there that, you know, [2:11] this is not a full ceasefire that has been in place for the past just over six months. [2:16] And according to the Hamas-run health ministry, [2:18] more than 760 Palestinians have been killed in the course of this last period of time. [2:26] And, you know, that brings us to more than 72,000 people, [2:30] the number who have been killed since the deadly Hamas attacks on Israel on the 7th October 2023, [2:36] which triggered the war in the first place. [2:39] And what we're hearing from people on the ground is just dire in terms of the humanitarian situation. [2:45] It's been a really harsh, wet winter. [2:47] People are still living in these makeshift tents. [2:51] They haven't managed to get in the caravans that people were hoping for. [2:55] And, you know, they're telling us that there are problems with the sewage systems. [2:59] There are now these infestations of rodents, of rats, [3:02] and people saying there are outbreaks of scabies. [3:04] Thousands of people waiting to leave Gaza to go for medical treatment overseas. [3:09] Although the Rafa crossing with Egypt is open for some of those medical evacuations, [3:12] you only get a trickle of people who are going out. [3:15] Yeah, I was going to ask one of the key aspects was that more humanitarian aid would get into Gaza. [3:19] Has that happened? [3:20] One of the complaints of aid agencies saying they're still missing a lot of, you know, key equipment. [3:27] There's not enough equipment to remove the rubble in Gaza. [3:31] They're not able to get in sort of replacement parts for some vehicles [3:35] and to fix infrastructure like for water and for sewage and for electricity. [3:42] And that is because, although that was promised as part of the initial stage of the peace plan, [3:47] a lot of the individual items that they're asking for, Israel considers them to be dual use, [3:52] meaning that they could be used by Hamas perhaps to, you know, for reconstruction materials, [3:57] to rebuild their tunnels or whatever. [4:00] So that is an ongoing difficulty. [4:02] Aid agencies are still having a lot of difficulties, as we've covered in recent months, [4:06] when it comes to access to Gaza. [4:10] Journalists are still not able to go into Gaza from outside. [4:14] The Israeli authorities are not allowing that. [4:16] We've got an ongoing court case to challenge that. [4:18] You see in the footage that markets do have food, that private merchants are able to bring in large amounts of food [4:26] so that the markets look much more well-stocked than they did at certain points during the course of the war. [4:32] But what people are saying is, of course, prices are high and it's very hard for most people. [4:36] You know, work is hard to come by and, you know, many people just can't afford those basic goods. [4:44] Yolanda, I know that your team has been out on the streets in Gaza speaking to people for the global story. [4:49] Can you give us a sense of where they went and what all you asked them, what you heard? [4:53] So we asked one of our regular freelancers in Khairn Yunus in southern Gaza to go out and speak to people [4:59] and ask them how their lives have changed since the October ceasefire came into effect. [5:04] And actually what we heard from many of them is quite depressing [5:08] because, you know, they're saying that they have not seen the hope for improvements in their living conditions. [5:15] Nothing has changed. Everything is as it was. [5:19] The shelling is still ongoing and prices are still high. [5:23] Everything remains the same. Nothing has changed. [5:27] It's much harder than before. There is no life. [5:30] My child wakes up at night and keeps scratching because of mosquitoes, fleas, weasels passing by or rats. [5:38] There are insects everywhere. [5:40] And there's a lot of uncertainty about where things are going. [5:43] And that's been caused by the Iran war as well. [5:47] And regional detention really sort of being diverted away from Gaza. [5:51] The Iran war has not changed anything. [5:54] In fact, it has made the situation worse for us. [5:57] Goods have decreased. [5:59] The Iran war has driven prices up and caused even more shortages. [6:03] It has not brought us peace or anything new. [6:06] Rather, the situation has deteriorated further. [6:10] You alluded there to the fact that the Iran war has changed the situation in Gaza. [6:15] How would you say so? [6:16] There are some immediate ways in which it affected everybody's lives in terms of inflation. [6:21] So prices went up for just foods in the market. [6:26] And we actually spoke to some small business owners and they were saying one of the issues they were having [6:31] is that the war actually caused a lot of disruption inside Israel where they're having to import goods from. [6:37] And transportation became much more difficult because of the Iranian attacks that were taking place. [6:44] And so that led to disruption of supplies going into Gaza. [6:47] That pushed up the prices. [6:49] We've also had NGOs talking about how, you know, because they are buying their foods in Gaza and using fuel there as well. [6:58] They're saying that the cost of all these going up also made them sort of less able to sort of meet the needs of people. [7:06] And you now have in the region, just not very far away, another humanitarian catastrophe really sort of demanding attention as well, [7:15] diverting attention away from Gaza. [7:17] When you look at what's happening in Lebanon with more than a million people displaced by the fighting between Israel [7:22] and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. [7:25] And at the same time, you know, I would say just resources and attention have shifted too [7:32] because a lot of the key players in this region, Egypt, Turkey, and then the Gulf Arab states, [7:39] you know, they were all caught up in the last six weeks or so in dealing with the situation with Iran. [7:47] And of course, in the case of the Gulf Arab countries, they found themselves on the front lines of this war. [7:51] I've been reading in some of your reporting, some of our colleagues reporting there in the region, [7:56] that Hamas has been reasserting control in Gaza. [8:00] How do you all see that showing up? [8:02] Are there, you know, is that happening in the form of territory gains or territory regains? [8:07] Is that happening in the form of like police and security controls? [8:10] How are you seeing Hamas reasserting control? [8:12] I mean, this is something that people that we work with in Gaza have been telling us is very visible, [8:20] that you start to see Hamas policemen on the streets patrolling and that after nine o'clock at night, [8:27] there are often these checkpoints that are set up where people are stopped. [8:31] We heard from business owners that Hamas is also putting taxes onto some services as well as basic goods [8:39] in an order to, you know, gain some funds. [8:44] And it does really seem that Hamas has been using this moment with attention diverted elsewhere [8:50] to reassert its authority. [8:54] And we're also hearing of, you know, municipalities and ministries. [9:01] Hamas trying to get its services back up and running again [9:04] to kind of show to people that it remains there as a force to be reckoned with [9:09] just at this very sort of tricky stage when international actors are putting pressure on Hamas [9:17] to disarm for the next stages in President Trump's 20-point peace plan, you know, to be advanced. [9:24] And how much of the territory in Gaza does Hamas currently control? [9:28] I mean, my understanding is that when Israel came in, they also do contain, [9:32] they also do maintain control of a vast amount of Gaza as well. [9:35] So, yes, under the terms of this peace deal, Israeli troops withdrew, [9:41] but they're still controlling something, more than half of the Gaza Strip. [9:47] They've set up what's called this yellow line inside Gaza. [9:50] And that is, you know, the north, the south and the edge of Gaza where it neighbours Israel. [9:59] And then, you know, Hamas is largely sort of in the other sort of towns and cities, [10:07] densely populated places where you find most of the two million population of Gaza living right now. [10:14] They're less sort of, you know, obviously visible before they were basically, you know, [10:18] the government of Gaza, but they are still there, very present. [10:23] And what we hear from people also is that continuing to pay thousands of workers [10:29] who were working for them in sort of different government roles, [10:33] they're still getting sort of at least partial salaries. [10:37] So they still have some of the infrastructure, you're saying, [10:38] some of the political infrastructure there as well. [10:40] Indeed. [10:41] And it looks like they've also been trying to sort of recruit more of these Hamas police officers in recent weeks. [10:49] And it's very much Hamas police who have been a target of Israeli airstrikes. [10:55] We're talking about with all those civilians have also been killed in recent weeks. [11:01] You know, Israel says it's targeting Hamas. [11:03] It's going after both commanders of its military wing who are still there. [11:06] But also very often we hear about, you know, police, groups of police who have been targeted. [11:14] Are people speaking to you openly about Hamas? [11:17] I mean, you say that they are reasserting control. [11:19] Do you have any sense of whether the group is popular amongst the population there? [11:22] Certainly what happened after the start of the war is we had a lot more people, [11:28] you know, vocally coming out, criticizing Hamas for its actions in Gaza. [11:35] People blaming Hamas for the dire state of affairs as well, of course, as Israel. [11:42] And, you know, polls suggested a real drop off in support, particularly in Gaza, [11:48] among the Palestinian population there. [11:50] Now, people are now in a position, I would say, [11:53] of being less able to be sort of vocal about what they think of Hamas. [11:57] That's the sort of sense that I'm getting when I'm speaking to people that I know there. [12:01] But, you know, at the same time, they will, of course, have their supporters, [12:09] people still in place who are stuck by Hamas, who are aligned with them ideologically. [12:15] I recall when the ceasefire was first announced, there were three phases of this deal. [12:20] And in January, we heard President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, announced the start of phase two. [12:28] Can you remind us exactly what that means and whether or not, in fact, [12:32] all the parties here are in agreement about whether we are indeed in phase two? [12:36] Yeah. So, I mean, first of all, loosely speaking, the first stage of the ceasefire [12:40] was when the Israeli hostages were being released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners [12:47] and detainees being released by Israel. [12:50] And, of course, you know, that happened. [12:53] It was a slow process to get the return of all of the bodies of deceased Israeli hostages. [12:58] But finally, that happened. [13:00] And then it was supposed to see also, as we mentioned, [13:03] the resumption immediately of full aid to Gaza. [13:07] One of the criticisms of Palestinians and of Hamas as a party here [13:11] is they say that there has not been that full aid that was promised, [13:16] and in particular to rehabilitate the vital infrastructure in Gaza. [13:20] The second stage of the peace plan was really supposed to be [13:26] moving into the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip [13:30] and seeing this technocratic committee of Palestinians going in to govern Gaza day-to-day. [13:38] They're an independent group. [13:40] As yet, they have not gone into Gaza to take up their role. [13:45] So that technocratic committee is not at all in Gaza? [13:48] Okay. [13:50] Exactly. It exists, but it's not in Gaza on the ground. [13:53] And there's also supposed to be at this stage [13:55] an international stabilization force to work with that committee. [13:59] Now, countries were slow in coming forward to join up to that, [14:02] but we have heard that there have been commitments from a handful of countries, [14:08] Indonesia in particular, that they will send troops to be part of that force. [14:13] They're not there yet either. [14:14] What you do have is this civil-military coordination center [14:17] in the south of Israel, not far from Gaza, [14:20] where they have been to visit there, [14:22] and they have this huge screen where they can see on the ground [14:26] what's happening in Gaza in terms of trucks going in. [14:29] They can use satellite pictures to sort of zoom in and see what's happening. [14:34] You have troops represented from different countries around the world, [14:38] not just those who are saying they're going to go in there on the ground, [14:40] all trying to support this initiative, which is really US-led. [14:45] There's a big Israeli military presence there as well. [14:48] But at the moment, yeah, on the ground in Gaza, [14:51] those forces have not gone in. [14:52] And so we're not seeing really the momentum to kind of carry things through into the next stage. [15:00] And the third stage, which still seems far off, [15:04] is supposed to deal with kind of reconstruction of Gaza, [15:08] a large scale, a sort of conditions written in there, [15:12] very conditional sort of points in President Trump's plan [15:16] about acceptance of Palestinian self-determination as well [15:20] and a pathway to recognition of Palestinian statehood. [15:25] So when we hear the Trump administration talk about the fact that we are now in phase two, [15:30] is that a reality on the ground? [15:33] And does Israel and Hamas see this as being part of phase two? [15:37] I mean, it's pointed out that there are still these issues related to phase one [15:40] that have not been resolved. [15:43] But you get the sense very much that the important players here [15:46] want to move on to phase two. [15:50] Hamas really, you know, looking, [15:54] having accepted that this technocratic committee would come in to Gaza, [15:59] now is, as I said, trying to kind of reassert its authority. [16:03] You can see there's a real conflict of interest going on there. [16:06] One of the other things that's happening is that Egypt and Jordan, [16:10] as, you know, supporters of the whole process, [16:13] have been training up thousands of Palestinian police officers. [16:16] New police officers are supposed to be going into Gaza. [16:18] And as I mentioned, Hamas has been sort of getting its own police officers, [16:22] even new recruits out there on the streets in Gaza. [16:25] So that is a real issue. [16:28] And, you know, the thorny issue for this stage is really about Hamas disarmament. [16:34] And it's been said from the beginning that that was going to be a big, complicated, [16:40] difficult subject, and that is definitely proving to be the case. [16:44] What the head of the Board of Peace, its special representative, [16:49] its high representative, I think it's called, [16:50] Nikolai Mladenov has been saying is that, you know, [16:54] he has drawn up a comprehensive framework working with the technocratic committee [16:58] for Hamas disarmament, saying that that will lead ultimately to reconstruction, [17:03] to the Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza that people so desperately want to see. [17:09] Nikolai Mladenov, you know, he seems really key to this U.S.-led effort, [17:14] this Board of Peace. [17:15] Who exactly is he? [17:17] He's actually quite a familiar face in these parts. [17:21] He's somebody who's originally the Bulgarian foreign minister, [17:24] had roles in Europe before going to work for the U.N. [17:28] And then he had a U.N. position in Iraq. [17:31] And then he was here in Jerusalem working as the special coordinator [17:35] for the Middle East peace process, I think is the proper title. [17:38] And, you know, he was here at a crucial time [17:40] from just the aftermath of the 2014 war in Gaza [17:45] to sort of try to coordinate reconstruction. [17:48] So he went into Gaza several times. [17:52] He was actually seen when he finished his role after a few years [17:55] as being somebody that the Israelis and the Palestinians [17:57] could work with, somebody who was quite pragmatic. [18:02] At that time, I have to say, I interviewed him quite frequently. [18:05] He was very accessible, but unfortunately, [18:07] he's not been so accessible since [18:11] because I think, you know, there's so much going on [18:13] where they think it's just not helpful to open up [18:15] to media scrutiny and to further public scrutiny, [18:19] that he's kind of working quite quietly at the moment [18:22] trying to get things done. [18:24] What's the hang-up specifically around the issue of disarmament? [18:28] So, I mean, first of all, you get those within Hamas [18:34] who will point out that, you know, there are all these Israel-backed militia [18:38] on the grounds in Gaza. [18:40] They have their own enemies. [18:41] So when it comes to small arms, [18:44] there's a lot of resistance in giving those up. [18:46] But what Nikolai Mladenov said when he was speaking [18:48] to the UN Security Council recently, updating them, [18:52] is that in the framework that he saw, [18:54] it would basically be Hamas giving up, first of all, [18:58] its rockets, its explosives and assault rifles, [19:01] and the kinds of weapons that Israel, of course, sees as being the biggest threat. [19:06] Of course, for Hamas, this is also about power. [19:09] And, you know, we're starting to hear a lot more resistance [19:12] from members of Hamas when it comes to going ahead with this next stage. [19:17] They've criticised Nikolai Mladenov a lot. [19:20] They had a meeting with him and with US officials just recently in Cairo, [19:25] we understand, although there weren't, you know, big statements afterwards. [19:30] But what the BBC heard from its sources is that Hamas really rejected this framework [19:37] that Nikolai Mladenov has put forward. [19:39] What they have said publicly, some Hamas leaders, [19:42] they're accusing him really of, you know, working in Israel's interests, [19:47] trying to sort of change the terms of the original ceasefire deal. [19:53] And, you know, things do really seem to be at the moment [19:55] at this really sort of critical stage, and they appear to be stuck. [19:59] You mentioned that Hamas has had some criticism of this envoy Mladenov, [20:04] of his plan, that they seem sceptical of it. [20:08] What is Israel's viewpoint? [20:10] I mean, Israel has been very clear that Hamas has to be disarmed. [20:15] Otherwise, you know, it will disarm Hamas, [20:18] meaning that it will renew its military offensive in Gaza against Hamas, [20:24] that the war there could basically restart. [20:26] And that is one of the reasons why people in Gaza are so worried. [20:30] I mean, the Americans have actually picked up some of the same phrasing from the Israelis [20:34] as saying that, you know, if they don't agree, [20:36] then they'll have to be made to give up their weapons, [20:40] that demilitarisation of Gaza will happen regardless. [20:44] So, I mean, the stakes really are very high at the moment. [20:48] And one of the other considerations is, of course, that as Israel may, [20:53] under sort of U.S. pressure, Iranian pressure, [20:57] as there's moves for a sort of wider regional peace deal, [21:02] that Israel's military may turn its attention back to Gaza more, [21:07] and that could see sort of, you know, new military offensives there, [21:12] more airstrikes. [21:13] That's certainly something that people have been saying that they're worried about [21:16] and that they're mentally trying to prepare themselves for. [21:19] Yolande, we're having this conversation more than six months [21:23] after the initial ceasefire deal was announced. [21:27] And I really do recall at that moment there was a sense, [21:33] maybe it was too early, but there was an initial sense, [21:36] it felt of hope that, you know, the sort of daily strikes were stopping, [21:40] that something might change here. [21:43] And now we're having this conversation in the context of so many of the headlines, [21:49] so many of the stories shifting away and focusing on Iran, [21:53] focusing on what's going on elsewhere, say, in Lebanon. [21:56] What's your sense of what's next for Gaza? [22:00] And whether that immediate sense of hope still exists? [22:07] I mean, a big fear for people is going to be, you know, [22:10] is there that kind of money there still that was being talked about? [22:13] Arab countries, you know, giving millions of dollars in terms of reconstruction [22:18] when they now have to, you know, rebuild some of their own infrastructure [22:22] that has been under fire over the past, you know, more than a month now. [22:28] And then, you know, on top of that, [22:31] is the Trump administration going to sort of, you know, [22:35] be focused on other things, even in the Middle East, besides Gaza? [22:40] And obviously it is that sort of, you know, [22:43] very personal involvement of key officials in the Trump administration [22:47] that has helped to sort of push things through, [22:49] helped to advance them up to now. [22:51] You know, I've been wondering that very point. [22:53] We see big U.S. players like Steve Whitcoff, Jared Kushner, [22:56] who are now very involved in other talks as it pertains to Iran. [23:00] And you've got to wonder when those senior figures, [23:03] very trusted by President Trump, are not really as focused on this all, [23:07] what that means when the attention and the dynamics change. [23:11] Yeah, I mean, because they laid out whether or not it was realistic, [23:14] a lot of people were debating that at the beginning of the year. [23:17] But, you know, it's not so long ago that they were laying out [23:21] these grandiose plans for skyscrapers and rebuilding Gaza in quite a systematic way. [23:28] That was that big meeting that followed on of, you know, heads of state and senior officials [23:33] for the Board of Peace, with President Trump presiding over that. [23:39] And these pledges, big pledges of money to go towards reconstruction and efforts in Gaza. [23:45] Even then, that seemed very sort of jarring when you looked at some of the pictures [23:49] that were there on the ground, have this sort of glittering event versus the kind of grim reality. [23:53] But I think, you know, people are very cynical after all that they've been through, [23:58] after all the setbacks that they have had. [24:00] But there are some things to find hope in, particularly in the last few months. [24:04] There's sort of these big moves to get a couple of hundred thousand caravans into Gaza [24:08] so that people can live in those and start to improve their living conditions. [24:15] You feel that, you know, if some small things could happen, [24:19] if attention does come back to Gaza in a more positive way, [24:23] then, you know, things could progress. [24:27] At the moment, there is also an internal division, it seems, within Hamas itself. [24:33] And, you know, the Iran war has added to that because there are leaders of Hamas [24:38] who have spoken out very much in favor of Iran, [24:40] caused other countries in the region that had previously hosted them, [24:44] like Qatar, you know, increased hostilities with them. [24:49] And there's sort of lots of dynamics shifting. [24:52] That's how it feels. [24:53] I mean, in terms of what's next for Gaza, [24:55] you really feel that there has been this lull in violence [25:00] and it's given people a glimpse of hope. [25:04] And although, you know, there are so many depressing pictures that come out, [25:09] some of the most hopeful ones, some of the most inspiring ones I've seen [25:11] are the pictures of children who are going back to school, restarting their education, [25:17] having some structure once again in their lives, [25:20] having, you know, an ordinary sort of child's focus in their daily life [25:25] beyond just sort of, you know, survival, [25:28] which is how it has felt for much of the past two years. [25:31] If, you know, international attention can come back in this direction, [25:35] it's quite sort of tantalising that there is a framework there to return to. [25:39] And you just think that there is hope there for the future in these kids. [25:44] Well, Yulanda, I know you need to run. [25:45] So thank you so much, though, for sharing your reporting and your analysis with us. [25:50] OK, thanks a lot. [25:51] And that's it for The Global Story on YouTube. [25:53] Thanks, as always, for tuning in. [25:55] And if you appreciated our episode, [25:57] I should mention that our show, The Global Story, [25:59] it's also available as an audio podcast. [26:02] So you can find us every weekday on BBC.com [26:05] or wherever you listen to your favourite shows.