What the Iran-US conflict means for Sudan — The Take

[0:00] Today, who's keeping the war in Sudan alive? [0:04] I'm going to be very frank. [0:05] Sudanese lives are very cheap. [0:07] Whether it's Saudi, whether it's Egypt, Turkey, SAF, RSF, UAE, [0:11] they've all been acting with impunity, [0:13] and they've been allowed to act with impunity. [0:15] One of the worst humanitarian disasters on Earth enters its fourth year. [0:21] I'm Malika Bilal, and this is The Take. [0:30] Hey, everyone. [0:30] As you're watching today's show, [0:32] leave us a comment letting us know what stories about the war in Sudan [0:35] you think the world needs to hear. [0:38] If you're listening on your podcast app, [0:40] leave us a review telling us where you're listening from [0:43] and give us a five-star rating while you're there. [0:45] It really helps the show. [0:47] I'm Dalia Abdul-Munem. [0:52] I'm a Sudanese political analyst. [0:54] I work in civic society. [0:57] And currently I'm in Kigali, but I am based in Cairo. [1:02] And I have been since war erupted in my home country back in 2023. [1:09] My God, it's been nearly, we're coming into the fourth year now. [1:12] So, yeah. [1:13] Dalia, well, welcome back to The Take. [1:17] We are coming into the fourth year. [1:19] It has been three long years since the start of the war [1:25] that forced you to flee your home in Khartoum. [1:28] Did you ever think you'd be away from home for so long? [1:30] Dalia Abdul- Never. [1:32] Simply because through my late teen, [1:36] my university years and up to my early thirties, [1:39] I lived outside of Sudan. [1:41] So when I moved back, I moved back with the conviction, [1:43] I'm not moving. [1:44] I'm not leaving. [1:45] So the fact that I haven't been home in three years, [1:48] I don't know when I'll next be able to go home. [1:51] It's a very sobering thought. [1:53] Like, you know, I talk about things that happened three years ago [1:55] as if they happened 30 years ago. [1:57] Well, Dalia, what we're here to talk about is, is heavy stuff. [2:01] But I know that there's a little bit of joy for you at the moment, [2:04] because you were with your siblings in Kigali. Is that right? For the first time in years? [2:09] Last time we met up was in 2019. [2:12] And now we're all living in different cities. [2:15] So we made a, you know, we made a pact, so to speak. [2:19] Okay, we're going to meet up all of us in Kigali, [2:21] because my brother is based here. [2:23] And it's a beautiful country. [2:25] And it's a country that's been through its own horror story, [2:30] and one that they continue to remember. [2:32] So it's also kind of therapeutic to see where they've been and where they are now, [2:37] which gives me a sense of hope. [2:38] And it's, it helps, you know, when they hear us to their knees, [2:42] we all get like prayers and people tell us, you know, [2:45] we've been through this, you guys will get through it as well. [2:48] So it's also very heartening to see and feel it. [2:52] So yeah, it's been great being here. [2:54] Well, for our listeners, because you are surrounded by your siblings [2:57] and your extended family, they might hear a little bit of background noise, [3:01] but we're going to continue through because, um, that's how life is, right? [3:05] Yep, absolutely. [3:05] And it happens in the background as we continue through. [3:08] So three years ago this week, the war broke out in Sudan. [3:13] But the war that's at the top of many people's minds right now [3:17] is one that is far outside of Sudan's borders. [3:20] And yet that war, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and Iran's response, [3:25] is having a big impact on people in Sudan. [3:28] What is the spillover effect? [3:31] Fuel prices have gone up. [3:33] I mean, I saw a report of there being queues, [3:36] of people queuing for days on end to get fuel. [3:39] Behind me, cars stretching for hundreds of meters. [3:42] Drivers waiting here for hours, sometimes an entire day, [3:45] just to reach the bomb. [3:47] Sudan is very much still reliant on agriculture. [3:50] And we get our fertilizers from the Gulf, from the Arabian Gulf countries. [3:56] That has stopped. [3:57] And it's made the need for humanitarian assistance even more, [4:01] more acute, more, much more needed. [4:04] Because even though in the areas where farming can be done, [4:08] they can't farm because they don't have the fertilizers. [4:11] It's already a sector that's been devastated by the war. [4:15] So let's say you had 100 hectares. [4:19] Now they might have 10. [4:20] They can't even farm those 10 hectares. [4:22] So it's, I think like every other country in this world, [4:26] you know, prices have shot up, fuel prices have shot up. [4:30] You know, everything has gone up. [4:31] And it's just, they're doubling down. [4:34] It gets worse every day. [4:35] You know, you think with time, things can ease up, can get better. [4:40] But it hasn't. [4:41] Even in areas which are under SAF control, it's gotten worse. [4:44] And even in areas that's under RSF control, it's gotten worse. [4:47] Hmm. [4:49] Okay. [4:49] Well, you mentioned the acronym SAF. [4:51] So let's break it down for people who haven't been following as closely. [4:55] That's the Sudanese Armed Forces who are fighting the RSF, [4:59] which is this paramilitary group. [5:01] Can you give me a sense of where things stand at this current moment [5:05] and whether either side is closer to achieving a win? [5:09] Absolutely nothing. [5:11] The major, you know, event that happened, [5:15] if you want to call it event, was the fall of Al-Fashir, [5:18] which is the capital of North Darfur. [5:20] So basically, it's become a game of cat and mouse [5:23] between the Arabist Support Forces, the paramilitary, [5:27] and the Sudanese Armed Forces. [5:30] And the RSF is better equipped, has more modern weaponry, [5:36] and has obtained the momentum after the fall of Al-Fashir, [5:42] because now they control the whole Western region of Sudan. [5:45] And that is where all the weapons were coming in initially via Chad. [5:50] But now they're trying to encircle SAF within the central part of Sudan, [5:55] so they're basically cornered, they'll be besieged. [5:59] And the fighting now is in the Kurdifans, which is more Southeast. [6:03] And there's been fighting in the Blue Nile state, which also kind of borders Ethiopia. [6:08] And in the middle of all of this, you have hundreds of thousands of people [6:11] moving from one town to another, from one city to another. [6:16] And the continuous displacement of people is just ongoing. [6:20] It's never stopped. [6:21] And this is where we are at the moment, you know. [6:24] They say they want to hold talks, but nothing is done. [6:28] And then we get shoved to the side. [6:30] You know, we're sent to the children's room, so to speak. [6:34] In the case of Sudan, it's sent to the children's room. [6:37] And in the adult's room, they discuss the other issues that they feel are more important. [6:42] And at this moment in time, what's happening in the Persian Gulf has taken precedence over anything else. [6:49] Well, interesting you say that because if that is the topic that the adults in the room are talking [6:56] about while Sudan gets shuffled off to the side, we are speaking after ceasefire talks between Iran [7:02] and the U.S. ended with no agreement. [7:05] And after U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. is going to begin a blockade [7:10] of ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz. [7:13] And so I'm wondering how much of this war has affected the players behind the scenes of Sudan's [7:24] war because this conflict between the Sudanese army, the RSF, started as a power struggle back in 2023. [7:32] But there had been foreign actors since the beginning, including many that had been impacted [7:38] by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. [7:41] So how much are outside money, weapons, resources shaping what's happening? [7:48] And has that changed over the course of this war in Iran? [7:50] Well, initially I thought when the war erupted with Iran, I thought that the UAE would be [7:58] busy with what's happening in their backyard and their support to the RSF would lessen. [8:04] It's been the opposite. [8:05] They've doubled down in their support to the RSF. [8:08] You also have, there was several reports of Ethiopia allowing a base inside their borders [8:16] from which RSF soldiers were being trained. [8:19] Satellite images appearing to show a large training facility in Ethiopia reportedly used by Sudan's [8:24] paramilitary rapid support forces. [8:26] Images show hundreds of tents, heavy vehicles and newly cleared ground. [8:31] Reuters cites Ethiopian officials, diplomats and security sources who say the camp is being used [8:35] to train RSF fighters who have been battling Sudan's army since April 2023. [8:40] In regards to SAF, SAF had negotiated an arms deal with Pakistan via Saudi Arabia. [8:49] That's been put on hold. [8:51] They've had support from Turkey, support from Saudi and support from Egypt. [8:56] But Egypt has been adopting a very self-preservation policy, which I can understand. [9:03] So their support to SAF has been somewhat limited in terms of training, logistics, [9:08] but not actually weapons or resources. [9:11] But the UAE hasn't stopped when it comes to the RSF. [9:14] They have continued to arm them, arm them with the most sophisticated weaponry you can imagine. [9:20] So they're a very slick, you know, unit who literally do not care because they operate [9:28] with impunity. [9:29] The same applies to SAF. [9:31] Both armies operate with impunity because no one has held them to account. [9:35] Mm-hmm. [9:36] Well, Dalia, you said that the UAE has doubled down and you mentioned weapons. [9:43] What else do we know about that? [9:45] Because of course, there have been allegations for years now that have been made by human [9:50] rights groups, U.S. lawmakers, the Sudanese government itself about the UAE's involvement [9:54] with RSF and its backing of it. [9:56] The UAE has denied involvement with the RSF, yet these allegations persist. [10:02] So when you say doubling down, how do we know? [10:04] What does that actually look like? [10:06] I mean, it's a wonderful thing about technology these days. [10:09] You can track everything. [10:11] You can treat, you know, you can't, you cannot be invisible. [10:14] It's very hard to be invisible. [10:15] So many sites have tracked, you know, planes flying in from Abu Dhabi Airport or from, [10:22] you know, some other airport. [10:24] And where they're going and where they land and then what happens next. [10:28] I've seen videos of trucks carrying weapons via Ethiopia. [10:33] So it's been documented. [10:34] But like you said, they keep denying it. [10:37] And unfortunately, these denials seem to hold sway. [10:40] Why are these other foreign actors who have hands, um, in this conflict, [10:46] why are they allowing this to happen? [10:47] I'm going to be very frank. [10:49] Sudanese lives are very cheap. [10:51] Sudanese lives do not matter. [10:54] And whether it's Saudi, whether it's Egypt, Turkey, SAF, RSF, UAE, [10:59] they've all been acting with impunity. [11:01] And they've been allowed to act with impunity. [11:03] And you're talking about Sudanese, a country that has been [11:08] beguiled by war and conflict since independence. [11:12] You know, a country that we're not Arab enough for the Arabs. [11:15] We're not African enough for the Africans or black enough for the Africans, [11:18] if you want to say. [11:20] And so we're stuck in the middle. [11:21] And at the end of the day, we also have leaders, [11:24] Sudanese leaders who really don't care about Sudan. [11:26] They care about themselves because if they cared about the people, [11:29] they wouldn't be putting us in the position that we're in, [11:32] selling us for the cheapest price possible, [11:35] ensuring that their selves are safe and protected. [11:39] But the rest of us can, whatever happens to us, happens. [11:43] And so it's a culmination of all these factors. [11:45] And there's also within the international community, [11:49] there's a lot of, I think, fatigue, I guess, war fatigue or conflict fatigue. [11:54] So there's not much care. [11:56] And so countries like the United Arab Emirates or Saudi or whoever, [12:01] will continue to do as they please because no one will hold them to account, [12:04] simply because they're too valuable for someone else elsewhere, [12:08] for them to be held accountable. [12:10] And at the same time, someone was telling me, [12:15] someone here in Rwanda had told us, [12:17] Sudan has too many resources. [12:19] It's too rich naturally for its own good. [12:22] And while you have all of that, [12:23] there will always be other people interested in taking a part of your cake [12:28] and not giving any, keeping it to themselves. [12:31] And this is the reality, whether it's our own leaders or whether it's someone else. [12:34] They want something for themselves, but not for us. [12:36] Okay. Well, Dahlia, looking at the future, trying to find some glimmer of hope here, [12:44] there is this big international conference happening in Berlin, [12:48] where there are going to be representatives of Sudanese civil society groups, activists, [12:53] major donors like the EU, the US, NGOs, and it's supposed to be this forum to rally humanitarian [13:01] aid and push for a civilian-led transition out of this war. [13:05] But Sudan's government and pro-SAF factions have not been invited. [13:12] And the prime minister has already decided it is a total failure. [13:16] What do you make of the conference then and of excluding the government? [13:20] Do you think anything can actually come of this? [13:22] Well, for once, there's better representation of the civilian civic society, [13:28] Sudanese civic society. So that's a positive. [13:31] There's more women involved. There's more, you know, groups representing minorities and those, [13:39] you know, groups that have been, for the past three or four, traditionally, [13:42] you know, not given a seat at the table. [13:44] So the fact that these groups are being centered right now and being told, [13:48] okay, we're here for you, that's a good thing. [13:50] Because if there's one thing we've had going for us, it's the fact that it's the local communities, [13:55] the local grassroots groups that have actually done something for Sudan, like the emergency response [14:01] rooms, the ERRs, and they're there. So that to me is a positive. It's good. [14:06] And the fact that neither SAF nor RSF are there, good, because they put us in the spot. [14:11] Why should they be given a seat at the table? They've been given numerous chances to bring an [14:17] end to this war, to even discuss bringing an end to this war. And they chose not to, [14:22] because each side wants to up the other one. So you know what, you don't get to be there. [14:26] And the prime minister, you know, he's a figurehead. He has no power. You know, I mean, [14:34] I want people who are actually going to walk the walk and talk the talk. And it's those people, [14:40] it's those NGOs, the women groups, the medical doctors, the professionals, they're the ones who are [14:45] putting their lives on the line and helping the average Sudanese who are still in Sudan, the 14 million [14:50] displaced, they're the ones who are helping them. [14:53] It's not SAF, it's not the RSF, because it's those who put them in that position. So [14:58] I really hope Berlin is a success. I really hope that the message that they're going to say will [15:05] get through and that those who claim that they're there to help will actually listen to what these, [15:11] you know, actors are saying, what these Sudanese actors are saying, what they will be pleading with [15:17] them to do. And they will adopt and implement what they've been said, because we've been saying it for [15:22] the past three years. So I'm hoping that this time the message will get through. So [15:28] I have to remain optimistic, but we'll see. We'll see how it goes. [15:32] Well, finally, Dalia, you ended with your hope in civilians. And so that's where I want to end, [15:39] because three years in, this is one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world, [15:46] 14 million people displaced, famine declared in parts of the country. [15:50] And the lens of war is what we're all looking at when we look at Sudan. And yet, [15:57] as we mentioned at the beginning of this conversation, you were gathering with your [16:00] siblings who've all scattered, thanks to the war, and you're gathering for the first time in one [16:06] place in years. And I hear joy in the background. I hear kids. I hear peals of laughter and some [16:13] fighting. I hear life and the activity of life and family behind you. And that's making you smile. [16:20] Yeah. [16:21] And so I wonder from you, what we should know about, if the lens was not focused solely on war [16:27] when it comes to Sudan and the Sudanese people, what would it be focused on instead? What should we [16:31] remember? [16:32] The fact that the youth have dreams and they dreamt and they toppled a dictator, and they still believe in [16:41] that. You know, they love their country. They will fight and die for their country. And they deserve [16:46] a country that treats them the way they treat it. And they deserve a better future. I mean, I do what [16:53] I do, not for me. You know, I've lived my life. Alhamdulillah, I'm blessed in so many ways. Like you said, [17:00] the noises you hear are my nephews and nieces, you know. And so, but there's so many, there's a whole [17:07] new generation of Sudanese who deserve to lead a good life, to have dreams, to be able to fulfill [17:15] those dreams. And we're all about community and family and culture and music and love and art and [17:26] food and all of that. It all gets swept away because of war or politics. And it shouldn't be like that. [17:34] A few months ago, the British Home Secretary cancelled all student visas for students from [17:39] Afghanistan, Sudan, Burkina Faso and Burma. Now, a few of those students had Shevening scholarships to [17:47] go to Oxford. And part of the, you know, agreement of the Shevening is that after you finish your degree, [17:54] you go back and apply what you learned in your own country. So you had something like 30 or 50 students [18:00] whose dream was to go get better educated, get a better degree and come back and help their country, [18:05] even in the midst of war. And that was taken away from them. It's just beyond frustrating because [18:16] we want to do better. I don't want to go live abroad. I don't want to leave. No one wants to [18:21] leave. No one ever wants to leave their home. You know, that very famous poem, no one puts their child in [18:26] the boat unless the land is not safe. It's the same situation. We try to better ourselves so we can go [18:33] back and better our own, our own people, our own country. But any chance we have gets taken away from [18:39] us and taken away from us for reasons that has nothing to do with us. So I would like to think [18:47] that, you know, everything comes to an end, wars come to an end, conflicts come to an end. But I do [18:53] hope that when this war is, has ended or will end, the youth of Sudan, you know, they won't think that [19:01] it's not worth fighting for anymore, that there is something that we can call home and then we can go [19:07] back. Whether it's in 20 years time or 10 years time, I just hope that we can all go back. And [19:12] those who are still there, I hope they, they will still have a home that they recognize as their own [19:18] and not one that's taken over by many fatigues and combat gear. [19:26] Well, from your lips, Dalia, thank you so much for this conversation and for your [19:30] expertise and analysis. I appreciate it. [19:32] Thank you for having me, Malika.