What the Iran ceasefire means for Netanyahu — Global News Podcast

[0:00] Welcome to the Global News Podcast on YouTube. I'm Pete Ross. Today I'm joined by our Middle [0:05] East analyst, Sebastian Usher. Seb, the US and Iran have agreed a two-week ceasefire. [0:11] Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he supports that deal, but that he still, [0:16] and Israel still has, war aims in the Middle East. As things stand, where does this leave Israel [0:22] and its Prime Minister? I think you've got to make a separation between two battlefronts, [0:27] essentially two wars ends. One is against Iran and one is against Hezbollah. And certainly [0:32] Mr. Netanyahu and his government have made clear throughout that they're separate. And when one [0:39] ends, the Iranian one, if it ends after the ceasefire, it doesn't mean the war in Lebanon ends. [0:43] That's unfinished business as far as he's concerned. And that's what we've seen. I mean, [0:48] we had the announcement by President Trump that the ceasefire was going to take place. And then [0:54] not long after that, you know, 10 hours or so after that, we had the biggest wave of strikes [1:01] on Lebanon by Israel since the latest round of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah started [1:07] back at the start of March. A hundred strikes roughly in 10 minutes all over the country in [1:16] residential areas, extraordinary destruction, more than 200 people killed, more than a thousand wounded. [1:22] So from the perspective of Mr. Netanyahu, as I say, this doesn't interfere with the Iranian side [1:31] of the deal. That carries on. But from the Iranian perspective, it very much does. The Iranians and [1:39] the Pakistani mediators have essentially said that Lebanon was part of a deal, that when there's a [1:44] ceasefire with Iran, there should be a ceasefire with Hezbollah. Mr. Netanyahu has made clear that's [1:48] not the case. And he's so far been supported by Washington and by President Trump in his comments. [1:54] But we've already seen the disruption that this has caused to the ceasefire. Before the talks even [2:03] started, they're due to begin this weekend. Iran, various top officials saying that this is a grave [2:12] obstacle that's been created. We've heard the EU, we've heard various Western allies of the US [2:18] saying, but this is unacceptable. So it's, I think, in some ways, Washington's next move. How much is [2:27] Washington going to try, how much is President Trump personally going to try to rein in Israel [2:32] and Mr. Netanyahu in order not to essentially stop the ceasefire before it's really even started? [2:39] Do you think Netanyahu was surprised by the announcement of the ceasefire, as some have [2:45] suggested? [2:46] No. I think, from what we've heard, that he was keen for it not to happen right now, that he spoke [2:53] with the Americans to try and make the case that this was premature. They hadn't achieved the aims [3:00] that had been set out by Mr. Netanyahu and by President Trump, which I think is true. I think that's [3:06] undeniable. The aims that they set out haven't been achieved. The regime, though they deny that [3:12] the collapse of the regime was a war aim. I mean, it clearly was at the start. The appeals they made to [3:18] Iranian people to rise up and take their moment, I mean, you can't get around that. That was a call [3:23] for regime change. The destruction of the ballistic missile capacity clearly isn't the case because [3:30] Iran still able to fire those missiles at Israel, at its Gulf neighbors. And even the total destruction [3:37] of Iran's ability to move towards a nuclear weapon seems in doubt as well. So those aims, as far as [3:44] we know, haven't really been achieved. And of course, the Strait of Hormuz is now a new element being [3:49] closed down. So from the Israeli point of view, this is not good. And it's not good for Mr. Netanyahu [3:55] because he essentially promised the Israeli people. And he was still saying, he made an address to them [3:59] last night, essentially saying that we've changed the face of the Middle East. You know, our victories [4:04] are extraordinary. This is not the Iran that was. This is not the Middle East that was. This is not [4:10] the Lebanon that was. I mean, it's true that since October 7th, 2023, the Hamas led attacks on Israel. [4:15] There has been a change across the Middle East. It's true that the proxies of Iran have been severely [4:20] weakened. It's true that Hezbollah is not what it was. So, you know, there is truth to what he says. [4:25] But a lot of it is also rhetoric, but isn't really borne out. So I think from Mr. Netanyahu's [4:32] perspective, this is both in terms of the aims that he set out and his own position politically [4:39] within Israel is not a good moment. Let's go back to the pre-war aims of both Washington and Israel. [4:46] They seem to be pretty much in step at that point. You know, changing of the regime, [4:52] nuclear material, enriched uranium. Do you think that's still the case, given that they seem to be [4:58] slightly out of sync with this ceasefire? [4:59] I mean, I think the aims are still the same. The stated aims are still the same from both sides. [5:04] But what President Trump wants to get out of this and what the Israeli Prime Minister wants to get [5:11] out of this, they were never the same. President Trump essentially wanted clearly, I mean, you know, [5:15] we're all trying to parse what he says and it's unclear from moment to moment maybe what he really [5:20] wants. But I think it's clear from everything that he's done in the past and the way this has worked [5:25] itself out, that he wants in and out quickly. He wants to be able to declare a victory quickly. [5:29] It doesn't have to be a victory that is really what he says it is. But as long as it has the look of it, [5:35] that's fine. From Mr. Netanyahu's perspective, that's not the case. He wants something that is [5:41] substantive and real, even if it's perhaps unattainable. The collapse of the Iranian regime, which from [5:50] everything we know, the Israelis had essentially told the Americans, this can be done. Use your power, [5:58] our power. We can do this. This is going to collapse. Hasn't happened. Lebanon essentially [6:03] saying, as the Prime Minister has said, as his defence minister, Israel Katz, have said to the [6:10] Israeli people who are very much in favour of the Iran offensive. But Hezbollah in Lebanon is different. [6:17] There's a lot of history which goes back. And it's never been that successful an enterprise for [6:23] Israel. So what they've been promising the Israelis this time is, this time we're doing it. This time [6:28] there won't be a Hezbollah. This time there won't be any threat to the north of Israel. We're going to [6:31] eradicate that. Mr. Netanyahu has been asked many times in the past weeks, you know, what is the time [6:37] scale? He said, there isn't a time scale. There isn't a time scale. You know, there was a warning [6:43] to the people of southern Lebanon, hundreds of thousands who've had to evacuate. There's no [6:48] timetable for them to return. The timetable as far as Israel is setting out at the moment is, [6:52] when Hezbollah is dealt with, then maybe you can go back. But until then, no, no one is going back. [6:58] No residents, nobody living there. What about inside Israel? What's his position there now? I mean, [7:03] there's elections around the corner. I mean, the original attack on Iran, as it was last year, [7:10] is not unpopular in Israel. There is a general sense, all political sides, this is a price that [7:16] we have to pay. They do, I think in general, buy into what Mr. Netanyahu has been saying for years, [7:22] that this is an existential threat. Lebanon, if it goes on and on, I think will become more so. [7:27] One, because of a sense that we've been here before and we've never really achieved what has been said [7:31] to be achieved and we've actually lost out because of that. And also, you know, the Israeli army, [7:37] which depends on reservists, which depends on the will of the people to want to carry on, [7:42] are exhausted. But Mr. Netanyahu is indefatigable. I mean, that is an extraordinary thing. I mean, [7:46] he is up, he is talking, you know, he is maneuvering, he is working this, that and the other [7:53] to try and keep all those plates spinning in the air. He is incredibly, you know, good at that. We know [8:00] you cannot rule him out in any way. The opposition is not that strong in Israel. It doesn't really have a [8:07] good, clear line of, you know, what it's offering. And the way that Israel, the politics has always [8:12] been so fractured in any case, the small parties, you know, that need to be brought on side. [8:18] It, you know, you would be a fool to try and predict what's going to happen later with the elections. [8:24] Could it be that perhaps things now are not as rosy or not as good for Benjamin Netanyahu [8:30] as the war before this current conflict with Iran began? [8:35] No, I think that's true. What he had to promise the Israelis was something that goes beyond what [8:40] has already happened, both about Iran and about Hezbollah. About Iran, I think he's in a particularly [8:46] difficult position because those aims have not been achieved. He wants to carry on with that, [8:51] but he can't. If America pulls out, President Trump pulls out, he can't carry on this alone. He won't. [8:56] He may have been instrumental as he was last year in the conflict taking place, but in the ending, [9:03] that's going to be a call by Washington and one that he's going to have to listen to. [9:06] As far as the war in Lebanon is concerned, it really is, as I was saying, is down to how [9:11] much President Trump wants this deal and Washington wants this deal. And I think they want it pretty, [9:17] pretty badly. And if that's the case, and seeing just the reaction from Iran and from around the world [9:24] to what Israel did yesterday. And to be honest, the logic of Israel doing it yesterday has to be [9:31] seen. One, you could say that Mr. Netanyahu feels the clock is ticking down. So his ability to take [9:38] that kind of action will start to disappear. So do it now, hard. That's one thing. You could also say, [9:44] as many have, and some powers in the region have also said, Arab countries, Egypt for one, [9:49] but this is a naked attempt to try and disrupt the move towards a ceasefire because of the [9:55] obvious reaction. Hezbollah has been firing missiles again into the north of Israel. Iran has been making [10:01] these much stronger comments, you know, as one would expect. The Strait of Hormuz, you know, [10:06] they've said it remains closed. That is almost certainly to do with the Israeli strikes on Lebanon. [10:12] So, you know, Washington, President Trump will almost certainly have a word with Mr. Netanyahu [10:19] and say, look, these ceasefire deal, these negotiations, they cannot be put in jeopardy [10:25] by your actions in Lebanon. So call it for now. [10:28] Seb, thanks for joining us. Our Middle East analyst, [10:31] Sebastian Osher. And if you want to know more on this story, you can click the link below. [10:36] Thanks for joining us.