What latest Lebanese-Israel talks can achieve

[0:00] Let's bring in Friedman, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy [0:04] and the former managing editor of Lebanon's Now News website, Hanin Gadar. [0:08] Hanin, thank you so much for being on with us. [0:10] How do you expect Israel and Lebanon to handle these talks today, and what are they hoping to achieve? [0:16] Good morning, Andrew. Thanks for having me again. [0:18] I don't think this second round of talks is going to achieve anything substantial at this point. [0:24] It's too early. They're still coming with very different priorities. [0:28] Lebanon is coming with one priority, that is extension of the ceasefire, [0:32] and eventually with the withdrawal of the Israeli forces from Lebanese territories, [0:37] that is the blue line or the buffer zone that Israel has created during the last war. [0:41] Israel is coming with one priority, that is Hezbollah's disarmament, [0:45] which is part of the ceasefire agreement that was signed even in November 2024. [0:51] So they're coming with very different priorities, and they're waiting for the other to start something. [0:56] Last time, Israel gave Lebanon 10 days. [0:59] So today, I mean, they're going to discuss what happened in these 10 days in terms of disarmament, [1:06] and if Lebanon is going to be given more time to do what it's supposed to do. [1:11] But this is all linked to really what the Trump administration wants. [1:15] If they want the ceasefire to be extended, then the meeting, it's not two parties making this decision. [1:24] It's actually three, with the United States having a very big say in the ceasefire extension. [1:30] And the IDF is warning displaced people not to move south of its front line, [1:34] and listing 57 villages where it won't allow people to return. [1:37] What are you watching for on that front? [1:39] Well, this is the buffer zone that Israel has created for the very simple objective of protecting its residents in the north. [1:48] Since the last ceasefire in 2024, Lebanon was expected to disarm Hezbollah all over Lebanon. [1:55] One year and a half later, none of it didn't happen. [1:59] It was supposedly the army, the Lebanese armed forces, said they'd finished in one year and a half disarming Hezbollah south of Litani. [2:07] This is exactly where the Israeli army is now. [2:11] They want to make sure, because a lot of missiles were fired from there during the second war, so it wasn't really disarmed. [2:18] So Israel said, basically, we have to protect our citizens in the north, [2:25] and this is the buffer zone that we're creating to do that, because, you know, October 7th, Roma is still there. [2:31] On the second hand, Lebanese armed forces and the Lebanese leadership consider this an occupation, [2:39] and they do not want to proceed with any kind of agreement without Israel withdrawing from these villages. [2:47] This is a big difference, and to reconcile these two differences and to make sure that both agree on a framework or a path forward is not going to be an easy task. [2:57] That's why I'm saying this is not going to be finished. They're not going to finalize everything today. [3:02] Today is more about continuing the discussion and probably also paving the way for the visit by Lebanese president, [3:13] Josef Aoun, to Washington to meet President Trump. [3:18] This was actually the goal of this meeting. [3:21] We don't know when this is going to happen, so we will have to, I think this is one of the things on the agenda as well. [3:29] And another potential wrinkle in all of this, Lebanon's president is accusing Israel of targeting journalists who hide the truth of its aggressive acts. [3:37] The Lebanese health ministry says Al-Akbar reporter Amal Khalil was killed when she took shelter in a house after a strike in southern Lebanon. [3:44] Officials say the house was then targeted in a second strike. [3:47] The IDF says it does not target journalists, and details of the incident are under review. [3:52] So how do you expect leaders to address this in these talks? [3:56] Well, this is not the first journalist that was hit intentionally or unintentionally. [4:04] We still have to wait and see. [4:06] But this was, for the IDF, they say that this is the, they have already said many times that no one is allowed in these areas. [4:14] This is a military zone, and no one is supposed to go in there. [4:17] So this is the version of the IDF saying that this was a risky area anyway, and no one is supposed to be there. [4:23] The Lebanese saying that this is Lebanese territory, and someone, they have the right to be there. [4:28] Another group is saying that this is not really a journalist because she works for a Hezbollah outlet, [4:33] and Israel has been going after Hezbollah's media institutions and consider Hezbollah's journalists as Hezbollah members, not really journalists. [4:42] So there here also are two different point of views in terms of is she really a journalist or a Hezbollah affiliate, [4:49] two very different point of views from Lebanon and Israel of this. [4:52] Lebanon still sees this as a crime by the Israelis targeting journalists. [4:59] The IDF is still yet to say what really happened, but they don't see this as a crime. [5:04] They see this as like a Hezbollah member being targeted in a military zone. [5:09] So again, two very different points of views, and the Lebanese street itself is divided over this. [5:16] They still, many Lebanese don't see Hezbollah journalists as journalists. [5:21] So this is really like a big division within Lebanon as well. [5:25] Haneen Gadar, thank you. [5:28] You're welcome. [5:28] Thank you very much for having me. [5:29] Thank you.