What is Trump's Iran blockade strategy? — Global News Podcast

[0:00] Welcome to the Global News Podcast from the BBC. I'm Celia Hatton and today we're joined by our [0:04] diplomatic correspondent James Landale. Hello. Hi James. It's great to have you with us. A lot [0:09] to discuss. After the US and Iran failed to reach a deal in talks over the weekend, Donald Trump has [0:16] said he's going to blockade all of Iran's ports from Monday. What would that even look like? [0:23] Well, essentially what it would be is an attempt by the United States to restrict the flow of [0:28] largely oil and gas from Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz and out into the wider global [0:35] economy. Because rather extraordinarily throughout this conflict now, sort of into its sixth week, [0:41] Iranian oil has continued to flow because although Iran has been blockading the Strait for its [0:48] opponents, it obviously hasn't been restricting its own traffic. So at the moment, Iranian tankers have [0:56] been slipping out and going to their market. The Americans are attempting to try and resist that. [1:02] But it's not just the Strait of Hormuz that they want to block. They're saying all Iranian ports. So [1:08] what are the logistics of all of this? What that means, I think, in practice, and it's not entirely [1:13] clear. We don't know. All we've got is the American Central Military Command saying, look, we are going to [1:18] make sure that any vessel that is entering or leaving the blockaded area will, and I'm quote, [1:25] be intercepted, diverted, or captured. Now, what I think that means in practice is that American [1:33] ships, war ships will sit offshore in the Gulf of Oman and elsewhere. They won't be going into the [1:40] Gulf itself. They will be using their satellites and other techniques to watch Iranian ports. And any [1:48] shipping, any tankers that come out of those ports will be monitored. They will be surveilled, to use [1:55] the American expression. And once they come out, the Americans will then make a decision about whether [2:00] they try to board and inspect and or potentially even seize that particular vessel. Seizing a vessel is [2:09] not an easy thing to do under any circumstances. There are clearly military risks involved. Things [2:16] can go wrong. People can get hurt. Then there's the legal issue about whether or not it is legal, [2:22] because normally boarding another vessel is seen as an act of piracy. Now, obviously, there is a state [2:28] of, you know, you could argue a state of war between Iran and the United States, although there is a [2:33] ceasefire at the moment. So there's that there's that issue. Then there's the issue about what happens to [2:39] the vessel after it has been boarded. Where does the United States and the authorities take that [2:44] vessel? What do they do with the crew? What do they do with the oil or whatever the ship is carrying? [2:50] So there are an awful lot of logistics. What's interesting is that the model used by other [2:55] Western states against the Russian Shadow Fleet, where they are trying to deter these vessels [3:02] in a similar way. You know, it's very complicated. It's technical. And a lot of countries quite [3:08] cautious before doing this until they make sure they've got all the legal niceties, the military [3:13] niceties and the practical niceties lined up. So, yes, it's it's not a simple procedure. [3:19] What is the strategy? I mean, they've been talking for weeks about trying to get around to open up the [3:24] Strait of Hormuz. And now they're imposing their own blockade. [3:27] I think we should look at the context here. The context is of the talks between the United States [3:32] and Iran face to face in Islamabad and Pakistan over the weekend, talks that did not produce the [3:38] results that some hoped they might. And I think as a result of that, the United States clearly wish [3:44] to put pressure on Iran and potentially also China, you know, as an ally of Iran, a recipient of [3:52] Iranian oil to say, look, you know, we want to put more pressure on you so that you come back to the [3:58] table, because at the moment there is a gap between both sides. Both sides, both Iran and the United [4:04] States think that the other side is in a weaker and worse position than they actually are, which is one [4:10] of the reasons why neither side is willing to accept any of the demands either side is making of one [4:16] another. So what the Americans are trying to do is to change that calculus to put pressure on the [4:21] Iranians, both diplomatically and economically to say, look, you can't outlast us. The problem is, [4:29] is that thus far in this conflict and throughout much of recent history, whenever Iran is subject to [4:36] political and economic pressure from an outside source, it tends to hunker down rather than make [4:42] concessions. It's interesting that you brought China into all of this. Can you explain that a [4:47] little bit more? Why would the United States want to bring China in and how would China be affected by [4:52] this decision? Iran listens to China, as do many countries around the world, particularly at the [5:00] moment when US policy is increasingly inconsistent and erratic. Many countries around the world are [5:07] looking to China in a way they haven't done before and saying, you know, it is a different player. [5:12] But specifically in this case, China is a supporter of Iran and consumes and purchases a substantial [5:20] amount of Iranian oil. Now, China has an interest in this conflict ending, returning stability to the [5:28] international market, not because it's wholly dependent on Iranian oil. It can find, you know, [5:34] energy from other sources. But China's economy is dependent on selling goods on the international [5:41] market. And it needs to have an international market that is operating and not one that is [5:45] subject to crisis, instability, excessive energy prices and all the rest of it. So America would [5:51] be hoping that by putting some pressure on Iran and also potentially a little bit of economic pressure [5:55] on the Chinese, the Chinese can get a little bit more involved than they have been so far. [6:00] There have been community, you know, the Chinese have not been completely absent from this war. [6:04] It had a meeting with Pakistan's ministers, and there was a joint Pakistan-China statement published [6:12] after that, calling for, you know, an end to the conflict and things like that. But also, [6:17] crucially, that statement calls for the straits to remain open. So I think that that would be the [6:23] hope by the Americans. Whether, again, whether it works is another question. [6:27] Yeah, I mean, could this backfire? Could we see a case where the United States Navy is in a case [6:33] where they have to decide whether they're going to stop a Chinese tanker? How would that work? [6:37] Yeah, that'll be a tough question for the naval captain in charge of that particular vessel and [6:43] the decisions that have to be made there. Yeah, because there's a huge difference between [6:47] seizing and detaining an Iranian-linked vessel and actually trying to detain one that is, [6:55] you know, perhaps, you know, flagged in China, owned by the Chinese. Because that's a very, [7:00] very different question indeed. Whether or not the Americans are willing to take that [7:04] military, potentially escalatory risk, again, is an open question about this blockade. [7:10] What could this do to oil prices, do you think? [7:14] Well, oil prices have already surged as a result of the announcement of this blockade. [7:19] And clearly, if there is less oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf, then clearly [7:26] oil traders will act accordingly on that basis. At the moment, as ever, as we've seen throughout [7:34] this conflict, the oil price has gone up and down, depending on the optimism or the pessimism [7:38] of the traders in the market. If they think that this blockade is not just an attempt to pressure [7:46] Iran, and it's not just a diplomatic play, and it actually is something that might bed in, [7:52] become semi-permanent, and sort of become part of the status quo, then I think the likelihood [7:57] is that it could have a long-term, serious pressure on the oil price to rise even further [8:04] than it is already. [8:05] Okay, so we've talked about a lot of the risks involved in this strategy. But what if it goes [8:11] right from a US point of view, what effect could this American blockade have on Iran, [8:18] on Tehran? [8:19] Well, we saw earlier this year there were protests in Tehran, prompted not just out of opposition [8:26] to the regime, but primarily, initially at least, because of economic concerns, that pressure [8:32] could build. Iran's economy is in a very parlous state at the moment. And any further pressure [8:39] could potentially lead to those political pressures rising again on the government there, [8:46] people coming out on the streets and saying, look, you know, we've got a ceasefire, that's [8:49] great, we're not getting bombed by the Americans and the Israelis anymore. But at the same time, [8:53] there's no bread, inflation is soaring, we can't get any fuel, we need to do something about [8:58] this. That's what the Americans will be hoping for. I've only ever been to Iran once, and when [9:03] I was there, the thing that impressed me most, that I remember most, was just how many people [9:09] I spoke to said, at a time when there were sanctions, and people were talking about economic [9:14] pressure. Many people there reminded me of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. And they said, [9:21] things were really bad then, we survived that, we can survive this. And I think that [9:27] is a sentiment that I've seen and heard and read, has echoed in recent weeks as well. [9:33] Is this blockade really also about optics, about the United States looking strong, from moving away [9:39] from a position where they're ordering Iran to do something that they didn't want to [9:43] do, to being the ones to say, okay, now we're the ones imposing the blockade, you have to [9:48] get past us now? How much of it is about that? [9:52] Politicians down the ages, always like to pull a lever, they like something to be done. [9:58] So yes, this is an American response to, as I said, the weekend's lack of progress. So they [10:03] want to get on the front foot to take the initiative to try and disrupt thinking within [10:08] in Tehran, so that people start thinking, crikey, can we survive that? How can we deal with it? [10:14] So when you're in that kind of negotiation, to that extent, it makes sense to do something that [10:20] just changes the status quo. But ultimately, even if it shows the Americans are doing something, [10:27] they actually have to do it. If this blockade continues, it's highly likely at some point, [10:32] a vessel will be captured and seized. And we'll have lots of pictures put out by the Americans. [10:37] But it's equally possible that a ship gets through. Very few blockades are absolute. [10:44] And then a vessel will get through. And I'm sure the Iranians will take great pleasure in [10:48] demonstrating that to the world themselves. Because as you say, a lot of this is about optics. [10:55] But primarily at the moment, this is about America trying to put pressure on Tehran. And we'll see [10:59] whether it works. Thanks, James. Our diplomatic correspondent, James Landale. And if you'd like [11:05] to hear more from the Global News podcast, click the link below. Thanks for watching.