What do Americans REALLY think of Trump? — BBC Americast

[0:00] Donald Trump is not popular at the moment and not popular on a whole range of subjects and a [0:06] worrying range of subjects if you are for instance a Republican congressman or congresswoman running [0:12] in the midterms in November. In spite of that the nation it seems is not turning to the Democrats [0:19] with anything like the kind of enthusiasm that the Democrats might hope they would. So here's [0:24] the question could the Democrats do perfectly well in November but still mess up the next [0:30] presidential election. That is the fundamental question underlying what we're going to talk [0:35] about now. So welcome to AmeriCast. AmeriCast. AmeriCast from BBC News. Hello it's Sarah here and I'm in the [0:46] BBC's Maida Vale Studios in London, England. And it's Anthony across from Sarah here. The fabulous [0:53] four have you united a rare time when we're all in the same room together. It's great to see y'all. [0:58] And I'm sitting opposite Anthony. It's Marianna. Let's get on to the popularity of Donald Trump or [1:03] indeed Anthony at the moment the lack of it. Yeah if you look at the poll numbers for Donald Trump [1:08] they have declined precipitously across the board over the course of the past year and three or [1:14] four months and part of that is natural for a second-term president. You're never more popular [1:20] than the day you are inaugurated and it's a steady, typically a steady decline after that. But Donald [1:26] Trump has done things that have been very controversial over the course of the past year. [1:30] His immigration policy has angered a lot of people. Hispanic voters as we have talked about [1:35] have turned on him. At least we've seen indications of that. His trade policy has inflated prices and [1:42] Americans aren't crazy about that because they still feel like things are too expensive, [1:46] things are unaffordable. And then the Iran war has been a real dragon. If you look at his poll numbers [1:52] there has been a real shift and an increase in his disapproval rating since the start of the war. [1:59] And the American public is split mostly 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, conservatives and [2:05] liberals. So to get down to where Donald Trump is now in the 30 percent according to the recent polls [2:11] or even 20 percent, 20 odd percent for his handling of the economy, you have to not just have the [2:16] people who always hate you, hate you. You don't have to just have the people who are independents [2:21] not like you. There have to be people in your own party who are fed up or frustrated and willing to [2:26] tell pollsters that they don't support him for that to be the case. [2:30] And they are. A lot of them are influencers or former influencers within that broad kind of category of [2:35] people. Yeah, exactly. Particularly when it comes to MAGA and the movement on social media. [2:40] But I think particularly that everything around the Epstein files when those were released, [2:44] obviously Donald Trump has many, many times denied any wrongdoing or even being linked to Jeffrey [2:49] Epstein in any way that could be construed as bad essentially. But that has not stopped a lot of [2:56] people on social media connecting him with Jeffrey Epstein, suggesting he was involved in wrongdoing [3:00] everything else. And in some ways, perhaps it's not very surprising because Donald Trump kind of [3:04] built certainly this presidential campaign on the whole, I'm going to kind of, I'm going to try and [3:09] disrupt the traditional world of politics in the US. I'm going to make it different. Once you are then [3:14] the president, you are ultimately the establishment. And a lot of these MAGA influences are very anti-establishment [3:19] and so very against what he's doing. I mean, maybe this was always sort of inevitable in terms of how that was [3:24] going to go. It's such an interesting point there, isn't it? Because actually so much of American [3:27] politics is about manning the barricades, isn't it? Which side of the barricade you're then on. [3:33] And what he's discovering is, as Mariana said, he's on that side of the barricade that's in charge. [3:39] And there's nothing you can do about that. Well, and even among, I guess you could call them MAGA [3:43] influences, but people on television like Maggie Kelly, Tucker Carlson, these people are pretty [3:47] establishment in the commentariat. It's the Iran war that's caused them to break with him. [3:52] And I guess I'm slightly surprised. I'm not surprised that they're against that and that [3:57] they're very, very critical. But they have just gone wholesale, everything about Donald Trump is [4:01] bad, from everything about Donald Trump being good. So all of a sudden, he does one thing that [4:05] you don't like, and then they've just leapt over the fence. They're barricading the other side now, [4:10] saying that he's messed up on the economy, on the war, that he's not going to be able to win the [4:15] midterms, that his polling's awful. It's as though they've done this complete U-turn. [4:18] Yeah. And Megyn Kelly notes Trump's approval ratings, has said it's cratered, said essentially, [4:25] literally, he's effed and has gotten pushback from Donald Trump on that. But Tucker Carlson is [4:32] an interesting case. He has supported Trump in the past. While there were some times when he was [4:38] critical behind the scenes during the 2020 election dispute, and that kind of came out and leaked [4:43] comments in the Fox News lawsuits after the fact, publicly and in his comments on his show, [4:49] he has wholeheartedly endorsed the president up until now. And that's why this clip we're going [4:55] to play of him apologizing for that support is so remarkable. [4:59] Yeah. So he's talking to his brother, isn't he? He's on his own podcast. He's talking to his [5:04] brother, who's also a Trump supporter, and indeed a former speechwriter for him. Let's listen to [5:09] the Tucker Carlson apology. I mean, you and I and everyone else who supported him, [5:14] you wrote speeches for him. I campaigned for him. I mean, we're implicated in this for sure. [5:19] Yes. [5:19] It's not enough to say, well, I changed my mind or like, oh, this is bad. I'm out. It's like [5:25] in very small ways, but in real ways, you and me and millions of people like us are the reason [5:32] this is happening right now. [5:33] Yes. [5:34] So I do think it's like a moment to wrestle with our own consciences. You know, we'll be [5:42] tormented by it for a long time. I will be. And I want to say, I'm sorry for misleading [5:48] people. It was not intentional. That's all I'll say. [5:51] Sarah? [5:52] Well, I really am confused by this. I mean, as I said before, I understand where they are [5:58] on the war. Donald Trump said that he wouldn't start any new forum wars. These people have [6:02] been against the neoconservative bit of the Republican Party for a long, long time. They [6:07] didn't like George W. Bush, the people around him and their foreign policy. But they were [6:11] really happy to continue backing Donald Trump through the tariffs, through his trying to [6:17] prosecute all of his enemies using the Department of Justice to do that. All the things that [6:21] Donald Trump has done, which have upset many people all around the world. They blindly [6:25] followed him through all of that. And Tucker Carlson wasn't just commenting favorably on [6:29] it. He's never out of the White House. I mean, I see him there all the time, hanging [6:32] out with the president and with the cabinet. And now suddenly, he's got to wrestle with [6:37] his own conscience because of one foreign adventure in Iran. Why this complete turnaround? [6:44] I think the foreign wars and Mideast wars and foreign policy was central to Donald Trump's [6:50] rise. The way he differentiated himself in 2015 and 2016, in part, besides being an outsider, [6:56] was his criticism of the Iraq war and said Republicans were misguided and he attacked [7:01] Jeb Bush for what his brother George W. did in prompting the Iraq war in 2003. And I will [7:09] say it's not just Tucker Carlson. I mean, as I think most of the audience knows, I'm from [7:13] Texas because I talk about it regularly. And I went back to Texas a couple times since the [7:18] start of the war. And the first time I was back there was just a couple days after the [7:22] war started. And the Republicans I spoke with there were willing to give Trump the benefit [7:28] of the doubt. They said, well, you know, he said he wasn't going to get us involved in [7:31] forever wars. He said he wasn't going to bog us down in the Middle East. They were, I think, [7:35] hoping it was going to be like Venezuela would be over in a day or two, would go in there, [7:39] would do it, would get out. That wasn't the case, obviously. And when I went back just a [7:44] few weeks ago at CFAC, which is a conservative conference in Dallas, I was struck by the number [7:51] of conservatives there who were willing to openly criticize Donald Trump, kind of the [7:56] way Tucker Carlson did, said, I feel like we've been misled. I feel like he's breaking [8:00] his promise, particularly younger conservatives. Anyone under the age of 30, I would go up to [8:07] them and I knew exactly what they'd say. I'd ask them about the Iran war and they would go, [8:11] yeah, Trump's wrong. And I feel like he is making a mistake. This is not what he promised. [8:16] This is hurting me personally by raising gas prices, making things cost more. I'm worried [8:22] about my friends who are in the military. That is a fundamental change from what we saw and what [8:27] I've seen covering Donald Trump now for the past 11 years. Do you think he might run in 28? [8:32] Tucker Carlson, he might. I've got a 22-year-old son who is engaged in politics. He follows it, [8:37] doesn't watch broadcast news, doesn't read newspapers. He gets all of his information online [8:43] and through Reddit and through YouTube videos. And he has told me the one person he thinks [8:48] could be a real threat to win as a Republican is Tucker Carlson because he's an outsider and because [8:55] he has a kind of a separate brand from the Republican Party. And you're nodding, Marianne. [8:59] I'm curious if you're seeing that online. Yeah, I actually think to understand what's going on [9:03] with Tucker, I think there's kind of two separate things happening, which is there's the broader shift [9:07] around particular issues where people actually aren't that fussed about war and they don't like the [9:10] stuff being more expensive and not being able to buy gas for their car in the same way and all that [9:14] kind of thing. But then there's something different, which if you look at Tucker Carlson, [9:18] you also look at influences like Candace Owens, who people have probably heard of, who in lots of [9:23] ways inhabit very extreme circles on social media and would be seen as quite extreme in that sense, [9:28] but actually on the whole tend to be quite on the pulse in terms of the sort of direction of travel [9:34] online. And what I would say is someone like Tucker Carlson, for example, has previously been [9:39] criticised. So if you think of it like conspiracy land, which I talk about quite a lot, there's a [9:45] kind of conspiracy land that exists on social media that people have dipped their toes in or been quite [9:49] central to. Tucker Carlson has repeatedly been accused of spreading disinformation or conspiracy [9:55] theories. He's always very much defended himself against that idea. But some of those conspiracy [9:59] theories have been accused of being anti-Semitic. Now, one of the things that he very strongly [10:03] disagrees with Donald Trump on right now, and if you listen to that podcast episode, he kind of hints at it [10:08] and talks about it, is to do with Donald Trump's relationship with Israel and this suggestion [10:12] that there's something kind of untoward going on, that Donald Trump is maybe being controlled in [10:16] some way, and that's why he's making the decisions he's making. That again has triggered more accusations [10:21] of anti-Semitism and that are different from, you know, political criticism of Israel and Netanyahu [10:27] and everything else. And I think that if you understand how much of kind of Tucker Carlson's belief system [10:32] online is built around this kind of evil cabals of people doing bad things thing, then you start to [10:37] understand why when that no longer fits with what Donald Trump is doing, he sort of has no choice [10:42] if he wants to keep that online audience, but to split and go another way. I think he's also [10:46] quite good at reading the room online and working out what people are responding well to or not. [10:52] It's interesting, Anthony, that you say it's younger people who you notice are like, [10:55] oh, I'm not sure I'm so fussed. These are the main kinds of people they'll be seeing. They won't be [10:59] kind of watching this at the traditional media. [11:00] They run businesses, these people. This is where I think it's slightly difficult politically. These [11:06] people run multi-million dollar businesses. [11:10] Which rely on it. [11:11] And they rely on conflict, exactly. As you've taught us down the years when we've been talking to you [11:15] about these things, or taught me anyway, that actually what they're doing is slightly different [11:20] from old-style political campaigning where they've got a set of things that they want to happen. [11:25] They're businesses that thrive on conflict and need the conflict to keep going. The woman who does [11:32] Call Her Daddy, that's incredibly successful. Alice Cooper, the podcast that is, I think, number four [11:38] or so in American podcasts. I was reading the other day, she's having a get-together very much like [11:44] this one, actually, here in Maida Vale, except hers is in Las Vegas. They've got the Chippendales at [11:50] Half Time. And Paris Hilton is the DJ. And, you know, these are really, these are big, big businesses. [11:57] And I'm not talking us down in any way. We've all had a nice cup of tea, or at least we have [12:02] in the green room, but nothing more than that. And there is, you know, there is a side to all [12:07] of this that is about commercial futures for individual people. And I don't know what you [12:12] think, sir. I just wonder whether the politics of it, in a sense, you ought to see separately. [12:17] Yes, because they'll go in the direction of clicks, as you say. And it's interesting, [12:23] though, isn't it, as you're saying, Marianna, that they're good at reading the room online. [12:26] I mean, if you're doing this because you have to, for financial reasons, appeal to the maximum [12:31] number of people, then that's a fairly good indication for us to follow of where voters [12:36] are thinking, the kind of people that they want, if these people really do, you know, very, [12:40] very good at sniffing what's in the wind. But of course, there's different people, aren't [12:44] there. You've got a kind of diehard base of Donald Trump fans, which people reckon, what, [12:51] just about under a third of the electorate will stick with Donald Trump, did through 2020, [12:55] all of that kind of thing. He's got quite a high floor. He can only fall so far with support. [13:01] But the people who put him in the White House are people who are anything but diehard fans. [13:06] Some of them are swing voters, some of them moderate Republicans who voted with their wallets, [13:11] largely, and thought that he would run the economy better than the Democrats would. And [13:15] they remember feeling better off during his first term. It's where they're going to go [13:20] with all of this. It's absolutely crucial, not how many people in the base are turned [13:24] off. And as we've had an email about that from Sarah, who says, and she must be in the [13:30] States, because she says, it's a common misjudgment to think that anyone who voted for Trump is [13:33] a MAGA diehard who will believe anything he says. That's definitely not the case. I'm surrounded [13:38] by Trump voters. And most of them do not actually like Trump. They tolerate him because they're [13:43] either pro-life or anti-woke or both. And I think that's a very interesting point. You've [13:48] got the people Anthony's talking to at, say, for instance, CPAC, who are MAGA diehards, [13:53] and they've got their own views about it. But you've got ordinary folk who I spoke to them [13:57] all the time, you must have done as well through the 2020 election. They say, look, he's pretty [14:01] awful. I wish he'd shut his mouth. Someone should deny him access to social media. If he could [14:06] just get on with running the economy, basically, and making me feel better off, it's where they [14:11] go that's important. Yeah, I think so. I think that, especially evangelicals, they feel like [14:16] the Lord works in mysterious ways. I've asked them that. Who knows? Maybe they're right. [14:24] They'll say, yeah, but you can't argue with the fact that Roe v. Wade was overturned, that he has [14:30] put forward, you know, right to life sorts of issues, and that he has taken on their cultural [14:37] conservative issues. And they're willing to kind of grin and bear it. Although it is also [14:41] interesting to say that a lot of them pushed back with the Trump as Jesus meme that he shared [14:48] and his criticism of the Pope. You know, the people who were tolerating him because the ends [14:54] justify the means, or however you want to call it, they may want to start distancing more. [14:59] And I think you'll see that first in Republican politicians in Congress, ones who are running [15:05] for office in the midterm elections in November, if they start to distance themselves from Trump, [15:11] because Trump's done. He's not running for president again. He's not, his name's not going [15:14] to be on the ballot again, despite, you know, some of those rumors. But there are other Republicans [15:19] who names will be on there in November. And if Trump goes down and keeps dragging them [15:24] down, they are going to have to find ways of distancing themselves, kind of the way Tucker Carlson [15:28] has. What then are the Democrats, Anthony? How popular slash unpopular are they, generically [15:35] at the moment? Yeah, there are a couple of ways to look at [15:37] it. The first way is, if you look at it, the approval rating for Democrats, kind of writ large, [15:42] the same way that we've been looking at approval rating of Trump. And if you do look at it that [15:46] way, Democrats honestly aren't much better off than Donald Trump. The latest poll numbers [15:50] have them languishing in the low to mid 30 percent, as well as 60 something percent disapproving [15:57] of them. And what I said about Donald Trump and the Republicans is true of the Democrats as well. [16:02] You don't get to that kind of disapproval rating unless there are people in your own party who don't [16:08] like what your party is doing. They don't approve of what the Democrats is doing. And if you look at [16:13] the one poll I was looking at, it started around October of 2024, you know, right before the [16:19] presidential election, Democrats had 47 percent approval, 51 disapproval. And since Donald Trump [16:25] took office, that has grown into a chasm. And I think it's because there are people on the left who [16:30] would normally approve of what the Democrats are doing, who are upset that the Democrats aren't doing [16:35] enough. They see things that Trump is doing that they definitely don't like. And they feel like [16:39] Democrats have not done anything to stop him or not used all the tools at their disposal to stop [16:46] him. They say Trump breaking rules and pushing boundaries. And they think, why can't Democrats [16:50] break rules and push boundaries back to that? That's one way to look at it. Another way to look [16:55] at it, however, is head to head generic ballot for the midterms. And that is, you're not just thinking [17:01] generally what, you know, do I like the Democrats or not? But if I were going to cast a ballot for a member [17:06] of Congress in November, who would I pick? And in those, Democrats are up by anywhere from four [17:13] to eight percent. And so what we've seen in these special elections and the off-year elections last [17:18] year, where when voters show up to the polls, they are pulling the poll ballot handle for Democrats, [17:27] by and large. And that is much better news. I mean, there's a saying that Joe Biden would always have, [17:32] don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative. And I think that's the Democrats' [17:38] big hope that when it comes down to it, pick Democrats over Republicans, even if you're not [17:43] crazy about the Democrats. And they're not just winning in narrow elections. I mean, they've been [17:47] winning small state legislatures and things in really surprising districts in places that Trump carried [17:55] by double figures, didn't they? I mean, there's like 12 percent Trump districts that Democrats are [18:00] winning in. It's quite remarkable when you see that. Yeah, Mar-a-Lago in Florida. That district is [18:04] now run in the state legislature by a Democrat. There have been these big swings. Is it that they've [18:11] got to find someone, though, Mariana, who's able to do what Trump has done? Or is it that they've got [18:18] to say, that's the end of that and we're going to be completely different and maybe more conventional [18:22] and go back to that? Because that seems to me, among the many decisions the Democrats have to make, [18:27] one of them is how Trump-like do we want to be? How online and in your face and not necessarily [18:35] always saying things that are necessarily true do we need to be in order to exist in this new [18:41] political world? I think, if we're honest, as we know, social media is the world. Everything is on [18:48] social media and everything that happens in the real world plays out online. And what Donald Trump [18:53] did so effectively was reaching, and actually we have a, yeah, these people who are called like the [18:57] double haters. So the idea that they don't really like any political party or at least the two ones [19:02] that they have the options between in the US. And so they require that they kind of need to like [19:07] the person, right? They need the person to be popping up on the podcast or on the streams that [19:11] they listen to and watch and say, oh great, okay, I kind of like this person. And all the social [19:17] media strategy in the world can't make up for a kind of lack of personality or ability to connect [19:22] with the audience. And if you're going to, I've spoken about it on Top Comment, the other [19:25] podcast I do, that if you're like cringe posting as a politician, it's never going to work. You [19:30] need someone who seems authentic and genuine, kind of gets this world. They don't have to [19:34] be young, they can be older, like, you know, Bernie Sanders. Don't look at me. That's a microaggression. [19:40] I was in mind you. Call it out, call it out. Sarah, what do you reckon? Well, so I'm really [19:45] interested in Marianne talking about having to have the right personality. Well, we need to have [19:49] a personality and a person. And this is, of course, why the American system is so different, [19:53] because there isn't a leader of the opposition. There isn't a Democrat presidential candidate in [19:58] waiting. We hear most often on the American news that Anthony and I consume all day from [20:04] the people in the Senate and the House of Representatives. And they're not necessarily [20:08] the people who are going to be the flag bearers for the next presidential campaign. So we're asked [20:12] all the time, where are the Democrats? Why aren't they doing more, saying more? Without someone [20:17] for them to coalesce behind, who speaks for the Democratic Party, it's very difficult for them [20:22] to have any kind of unified message or people to know even where to look for what Democrats are [20:27] saying. And that will change as soon as the primaries begin and we start to have people [20:30] campaigning to be the next candidate. But there's always this vacuum in opposition, isn't there? [20:36] Because you don't have somebody who plays the role of the leader of the opposition here. [20:40] Yeah, there's no shadow cabinet. There's no shadow prime minister. Yeah, all of that doesn't happen. [20:45] And the good news for Democrats is they don't need it to happen to win in the midterms. They can have [20:50] everyone from Zohran Mamdani to some sort of a centrist and they can run different candidates [20:54] based in different districts that appeal. This is such an important point. [20:58] Yeah. There you go. So Abigail Spamberger, who's the governor of Virginia, a centrist, [21:02] what we call a blue dog Democrat, someone who is definitely very moderate. She won the governorship [21:07] in Virginia last year. And at the same time that Zohran Mamdani won mayor of New York, [21:12] running very different campaigns. And so you're going to see a bunch of different Democrats kind [21:17] of appealing to wherever they are. And it's going to be different for the presidential election, [21:21] where they have to find someone and pick one person. [21:23] But also, not only do you have to find one person and pick one person and everyone gather around, [21:29] but also, is there a litmus test that says you, Democrat A, are unacceptable to the party? [21:37] For instance, perhaps you're a potential presidential candidate who isn't very keen [21:42] on abortion rights. Or you're a presidential candidate who thinks that in sport, that females [21:50] shouldn't have to compete against biological males. So, you know, there are these things [21:54] where there are people on the left in American politics who in the last few years, and certainly [22:00] when Biden was in charge in the White House, were sort of being told by the party, [22:04] your views are, it's not just that we don't agree with them, they are unacceptable in the party. [22:09] And I think one of the questions that strikes me this time around, after the midterms, [22:13] can the party accept a sort of broad range of views so that you can run convincingly [22:18] in all of America, or can it not? [22:20] I think you can do that in the midterms. I think it's going to be a challenge for picking [22:24] a presidential candidate. In the same way that it was a challenge in 2019 and 2020, [22:28] when people were pressed to raise their hands if they favored abolishing ICE, or if they favored [22:35] universal health care, and all of these things that are not necessarily the type of policies [22:42] that are going to be able to be sold to the general public when it comes to a general election. [22:47] And if you remember, Kamala Harris in 2024 ran a very centrist campaign. I mean, there was very [22:54] little talk about Palestinian rights at the convention. There wasn't mention of transgender [22:58] issues at all in that democratic convention. What Trump and the Trump campaign did was hit her with [23:04] stuff she said in 2019 when she ran that time around, because that campaign, all the candidates [23:10] got pushed really far to the left by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and the folks. And is that going [23:17] to happen again this time? Is it going to be a party that becomes fractured? We're going to have [23:22] 20 candidates, I suspect. It's going to be a huge field. And, you know, it's going to be the loudest [23:27] voices and the people who make the most waves are the ones who are going to break through. [23:32] I think they've gotten over the idea that there's a purity test of where you are on trans and abortion [23:38] and some of those things. Now, that doesn't mean that the Republicans won't be able to pick a new [23:42] issue that people will have established positions on. But I think we, I don't think yet know what [23:49] the culture wars issue will be for 2028, because I don't think it will be trans people and women's [23:55] sports, for instance. I think they'll be smarter about that and pick something that works really [23:58] well for them and is a problem for Democrats. And I think there may also be a problem around [24:03] Palestine and Gaza, and that they don't know how to talk to themselves about that or what kind of [24:08] message themselves. Yeah. If you are looking for issues that are going to come up on every stage, [24:13] they're going to be asked, aren't they, about Israel? And democratic opinion has shifted [24:17] dramatically on Israel. So it may not be that controversial to say things about Israel and [24:22] Netanyahu and genocide the way it would have been in 2020. I guess the question... But it's still [24:27] potentially a drag in the general election. It could be. It could be an issue in the general election. [24:31] The thing I will say is that if the economy is bad, the economy becomes the issue. Full stop. [24:35] Nothing else matters. So, I mean, we don't know what the economy is going to look like in 2027, [24:41] 2028 when these candidates are out there running. But if you remember, you know, in 2008 when Obama [24:48] was running against John McCain and the financial markets were collapsing, that crowded out everything [24:53] else. That is all they care about. The cultural issues, the social issues, all of that goes by the [24:58] wayside. So, you know, that is another way of saying what you said, Sarah, which is that we don't know [25:03] what it's going to look like in even just a year. [25:07] We don't know. We don't start us talking. [25:08] But we're going to talk about it anyway. [25:10] That's what we do. [25:10] Yeah, what I think we do know is what November is going to look like, the midterm elections. [25:14] And without a positive message to sell about the party or about the president, it will be really, [25:19] really negative. There are, I mean, literally hundreds of millions of dollars waiting to be [25:23] spent on adverts, on campaigns attacking the democratic opponents. Because if you know anything good [25:29] to say about yourself, then say bad things about the people you're running against. [25:32] And so we will see an absolute onslaught of attacks on democratic candidates and policies [25:38] coming through November, which will leave a very bad taste in the mouth for a lot of [25:42] voters. [25:42] Yeah, and something people forget is that Republicans have a lot of money. They have [25:46] fundraised considerably. The party itself has 10 times more money than the Democrats. Some [25:51] democratic candidates are actually doing okay, and they have pretty big bank rolls. But by [25:55] and large, there are going to be these independent committees and Republican Party sources that [26:00] are going to pour money into this. I don't think it's going to change the dynamics. I mean, [26:03] there you can, you can spend all the money you want in advertising. If the product you're selling [26:07] is not popular, then it's not going to convince people. But we are going to see the airwaves [26:12] flooded come September, October, November. [26:16] You then wonder whether and I know we've got a question from Greg, which is kind of to this [26:20] point. But I know we always talk about could there be someone else? Like do people just not [26:24] want to vote for the Democrats or the Republicans. This question is actually, so Greg asked, can [26:28] the Democrats form a cohesive strategy to win over independent voters? Or is it as likely [26:33] they will be reliant on a Republican implosion? [26:35] We don't know, of course, what direction the Republican Party will have gone in by then [26:39] and whether there is a Trumpist successor to Trump as the candidate. Because there is a, [26:43] I mean, there's a huge constituency of voters of moderate Republicans who are not MAGA, [26:48] but who are not very well represented at all at the moment. And I think plenty of prominent [26:54] Republican politicians who could go with them if they had a candidate who could do that. [26:59] Who would represent them then? Who would that candidate be? Because you think of Rubio and [27:04] you think of Vance, but we don't often talk about other potential candidates, 28 for the [27:08] Republicans, if Trump has properly imploded or exploded or whatever. [27:13] Yeah, and some of them are not very prominent because they do hold their fire. And I mean, [27:17] there are very few in Congress, for instance, who've stood up and challenged Trump with a more [27:22] moderate position. And it's people who are retiring. It's people like Tom Tillis. And in [27:28] each case where we've seen somebody do that, they've been somebody who's on their way out, [27:31] not the way up. Okay, we're going to leave it there. It's been a real pleasure taking part, [27:35] not only in this discussion, but also with this wonderful audience as well. Thank you all so much [27:39] for coming. Bye.