What could US troops do in Iran?

[0:00] Welcome to the Global News Podcast on YouTube. Hello, I'm Oliver Conway. And today we're joined [0:05] by the BBC's diplomatic correspondent, James Landale. James, President Trump sending mixed [0:12] messages at the moment on Iran. He's talking about a possible peace deal, also making more [0:17] threats. And over the weekend, we know that more US troops arrived in the region. Let's focus on [0:24] them. What might they be there for? Well, at the moment, what we're talking about is [0:29] around, you know, 3,000 Marines are sort of about there, another 3,000 or so on route. There [0:35] are some paratroopers there. We also think that a further 10,000 soldiers have been, [0:43] at least the Pentagon is considering deploying them. So that's the sort of numbers that we're [0:47] looking at here. Now, those sorts of numbers do not prefigure a full scale invasion of Iran. If [0:54] you remember, the US and an allied invasion of Iraq, [0:59] in 2003, 150,000 troops total, you know, so we're talking, you know, maybe 10-ish thousand. [1:07] So what that implies is at least giving the Americans the option of some kind of, you know, [1:17] tactical operation. One specific that Donald Trump has been talking about is the idea of [1:22] invading and seizing a particular island, Karg Island in the northern part of the Gulf, [1:29] the second part of Iranian oil infrastructure. It's a terminal through which about 90% of Iran's [1:36] oil flows. And that is certainly one option that is being discussed. [1:40] Now, there's reports in the Wall Street Journal that President Trump's even considering [1:45] sending in troops to seize Iran's nuclear material. That would be a further step, wouldn't it? [1:52] Yeah. So remember, there is about 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium that went missing last [1:59] year, in June, after the American Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Nobody knows precisely [2:09] where they are. The authorities suspect they might be divided into three locations, three separate [2:16] Iranian nuclear sites, the Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz that were attacked last year. So there is [2:24] a suggestion that there might be some kind of special forces operation. But all the military [2:29] forces that are involved in this would require a substantial military presence on the ground to [2:39] protect a substantial job of work, which would involve flying in diggers to dig through the [2:45] rubble. It would involve flying in specialist equipment to protect and store this highly [2:53] enriched uranium that is not the safest of the stuff. And that would have to be either [2:58] neutralized or diluted. And that would have to be either neutralized or diluted. And that would [2:59] have to be either neutralized or diluted. And that would have to be either neutralized or diluted on the site, [3:00] which would take time, or it would have to be picked up and taken out. Again, this would take [3:05] time. These sites are not easy to get to, they would require substantial helicopter rides that [3:11] would require refueling, you know, the potential risks there are obvious. [3:16] Okay, very difficult. Let's look at the one that's slightly easier, but still problematic, [3:22] taking Karg Island. How might the Iranians respond? [3:26] Well, the Iranians have already said that they are putting in a lot of [3:29] defenses onto that island already. Yes, the Americans have done one attack already to try [3:36] and take out some of its defenses, but the Iranians say that they are reinforcing those defenses. [3:42] Any American operation would largely, the assumption is, have to be an air deployment [3:48] rather than an amphibious one, because obviously an American ship full of Marines to get alongside [3:53] Karg Island would have to go through the Strait of Hormuz, which as we know, is heavily defended [3:57] by the Iranians at the moment. [3:59] So if that's the case, there is a strategic question for the Americans. Do they try to use [4:06] a local airbase in the region in a neighboring country, say Kuwait or somewhere like that, [4:12] would that permission be forthcoming? Would a local country be willing to allow the Americans [4:18] to use their territory to attack Karg Island for fear of avoiding Iranian retaliation? [4:25] Then there is the question of yes, is it possible? Well, the military experts say, [4:29] Yes, it would be possible, but casualties would be incurred. [4:33] And then the longer you hold any land, the harder it becomes, because eventually some Iranian attacks would get through, some missiles, some drones. [4:45] The Iranians, one would assume, they've already threatened to attack, to send American troops to burn in hell, is the rhetoric that the Iranian regime is using at the moment. [4:55] So it would be a hard fight. It would require resupply of munitions, people, medical evacuation. [5:02] So the American military experts say it's doable, it's possible, but it comes with substantial risk. [5:08] OK, bearing in mind all those factors, what are the advantages to President Trump's position if they do go and take Hague Island? [5:17] As I said, 90 percent of Iran's oil flows through that terminal. [5:20] The reason being is that it's very, very deep there. [5:23] So that the big, massive oil tankers can get in alongside, take on the oil very quickly and get out. [5:30] They don't have to go close inshore through straits and narrows that are really hard to navigate. [5:37] That is a huge source of revenue for Iran's economy. [5:42] Even now? [5:43] Even now. Iranian oil has not been stopped flowing south through the Strait of Hormuz, and it continues to flow. [5:54] And it remains a huge source of revenue, not just for the economy, but also specifically for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. [6:01] And so the argument for seizing the island would be that it would somehow give the Americans some leverage over Tehran and say, look, if you want Hague Island back, well, you've got to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. [6:17] That is the argument. [6:19] How much it sustains remains to be seen. [6:21] How influential that thinking is on decision making. [6:23] How influential that thinking is on decision making. [6:24] How influential that thinking is on decision making. [6:24] How influential that thinking is on decision making. [6:24] The decision makers in Tehran, again, remains to be seen. [6:27] But that would be the primary aim of taking this. [6:30] In other words, it's sort of it will be an attempt by the Americans to escalate to to reshape the dynamic of the conflict. [6:36] That's what they would hope to achieve. [6:38] But if they seized the island and stopped Iranian oil getting to any markets, that would just push up prices even further, wouldn't it? [6:46] It will push up prices even further. [6:49] But the argument would be is that it's an escalate to deescalate. [6:53] Because if the argument would be is that if it worked and Iran said, OK, traffic can flow through Hormuz once again, then you'd say, OK, it was worth it as a tactic. [7:03] But yes, in the short term, it would have a short term impact, also a long term impact if the facilities there were substantially destroyed, because obviously it would just take a long time for that sort of material infrastructure to get rebuilt for the future. [7:16] And even if they succeed in taking the islands, the Iranians still have to agree to negotiations. Are there any talks going on at the moment? [7:26] Well, talks, I think, would be pushing it. And there are messages are being sent largely via Pakistan. So there is a form of communication going on. Talks, I think, would probably be pushing it slightly. [7:40] And what we know is that at the moment, both sides are demanding maximalist demands. [7:46] And so the gap between both sides is huge. And at the moment, you know, Donald Trump says that he's very optimistic about talks and he thinks they're going making progress. [7:57] A lot of other people beg to differ. And I think the key thing to understand about Iran's mentality here is, is it going to respond to American pressure by seizing Karg Island? [8:09] Because at the moment, this is a war of choice for the Americans. [8:14] They have chosen to do this. [8:16] They have chosen to do this alongside the Israelis. Whereas for the Iranians, this is about a more existential question. This is about survival as a country, as a regime. [8:27] And the question remains, are they open to the sort of economic pressure that seizing Karg Island would involve? Or are they in a different place when it comes to their own calculus? [8:39] James, thank you. James Landell, the BBC diplomatic correspondent. [8:44] If you like this episode, please subscribe. [8:46] And if you'd like to subscribe here on YouTube, if there's anything you'd like us to cover, leave a comment below. [8:51] And for more international stories, download the Global News Podcast, wherever you get your BBC podcasts.