What Bolton thinks Trump will announce tonight on Iran

[0:00] perspective now from former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton. He was also the U.S. ambassador to the United Nation during the George W. Bush administration. Ambassador, good to see you. So the president could address the nation tomorrow night at nine o'clock, given that just today he said the United States doesn't need to open the strait in order to end the war, doesn't need to make a deal with Iran to end the war, and that regime change has already happened. What do you expect the president to announce tomorrow night? I think he's going to announce that the victory has been achieved. The war is over and Americans are [0:31] coming out. I think he's not doing this on anything related to strategic concerns. He's [0:37] worried about the price of gasoline at the pump in this country and the political ramifications. [0:43] We have done a lot of damage to Iran. That's all to the good. It has destabilized the regime. [0:50] Even Marco Rubio said that yesterday. The conditions are moving in the direction of [0:55] possible regime change. Apparently, we're going to abandon that as an objective, [1:00] if it ever was an objective. And I think it's going to leave Iran, unfortunately, [1:05] although badly wounded, in a stronger position. They have shown they can close the Strait of [1:10] Hormuz. They're cooperating with Russia much more closely than before. Russia's providing [1:15] them intelligence to target American facilities and personnel. And I think the Chinese will be [1:21] more than happy to invest in Iranian oil infrastructure if we walk away from this. [1:27] It's like the old Senator George Akin statement [1:29] on Vietnam, when he suggested for the United States to get out of Vietnam, they should just [1:33] declare victory and go home. Is that what you think the president is basically doing here? [1:38] And how much of a victory would it be? Well, I think he's been preparing for it [1:43] for a long time. He said some weeks ago, it seems like a long time, but he said something like, [1:48] I'll feel it in my bones when it's time to end the war. This is not strategy. Let's be very clear [1:54] here. This is somebody who's not thinking in long-term American national interest. He's [1:59] thinking day to day about, [2:01] his political circumstances. I think the negative effect it will have with all of our allies, [2:07] and not just in NATO, but our Pacific allies, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, others who buy [2:13] so much of their oil from the Gulf. And maybe most of all, the Gulf Arabs, who are now, [2:19] apparently, as we walk away, to be left to deal with Iran on their own. [2:23] Much smaller countries now, having seen what Iran can do to intimidate the United States, [2:29] close the Gulf. [2:31] the Strait of Hormuz and dominate traffic in oil. This is going to leave the Gulf Arabs in [2:36] a terrible quandary. Yeah. Richard Haass, you know, the president emeritus of the Council [2:40] of Foreign Relations, called this a we broke it, you own it strategy. To what extent? I mean, [2:47] the Europeans and the Asian allies, they don't want to own it. Go ahead. Yeah. Winston Churchill [2:52] had the word for this. He's scuttling. He's scuttling out of the area. And I think it's [2:57] the damage done to American credibility, not to mention his credibility. But let's worry about [3:03] America's credibility for what we ever do on a long term basis with anybody again. They're going [3:10] to say, but what about Trump? I mean, the the downside for the United States here, if he does [3:15] this, is is just incalculable. And just before I let you go here, though, to be clear, you do [3:20] believe that Iran, whatever regime is running the country, is severely weakened. What's their [3:25] capacity to hurt the United States going forward? [3:27] Well, it depends on how long it takes them to resume oil sales and to rebuild. And that's [3:34] what a wounded regime. It's not replaced, as he has said and as others have said. It's the [3:39] same regime. It's the same ideology, just different faces. And they will rebuild their [3:44] nuclear program and they will rebuild their ballistic missile program. They will rebuild [3:49] their terrorist networks. And they do have the capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz. It's in [3:53] a finite period of time. We've mowed the lawn. That's that's great. But the lawn, [3:58] it's coming back. [4:00] Ambassador John Bolton, thank you for being with us tonight. With us now, retired Army [4:04] Lieutenant General Karen Gibson. She's a former director of intelligence for U.S. Central [4:08] Command. Also with us, CNN national security analyst Beth Santer and Alex Plitsis. [4:12] Alex, you're right here with me. Let me just start with you. The president said again before [4:16] he announced that he's giving this speech tomorrow night, we don't know if he's going [4:19] to say we're done. But before that tonight, he said the United States can be finished [4:23] in the next two to three weeks. What do you think of that timeline? [4:26] So I think it makes sense if we're going to pursue the original objectives that the Pentagon, [4:29] the White House laid out before we had mission creep with the Straits. So the Pentagon, excuse [4:34] me, the CENTCOM commander laid out that we'd taken about 13,000 targets. There's about [4:37] 3,000 left, about two to three weeks left of bombing in order to accomplish that. And [4:42] then the president started making some comments that leads me to believe that we could end [4:45] up walking away, saying, you know, to the allies, we need you to step up. We need you [4:48] to take responsibility for it. And then today there was a comment that, hey, going after [4:51] the new stuff might be a little bit dangerous. So I think he's leaving himself room to leave. [4:55] General, let me ask you, what options do you think the president is leaving? [4:59] You know, supporters of the president always like to say he's unpredictable. He'll say [5:03] things like, oh, I'm moving troops in there. I'm going to bomb the oil facilities. On the [5:07] other hand, I want to make a deal and we might leave without the strait being open there. [5:11] But what options truly exist tonight? [5:14] That's a great question. So certainly we've started to see the movement of some elements [5:18] of ground forces, principally amphibious marine forces, some rapid reaction army elements, [5:24] as well as some elite special forces units. So there are a variety of things that they [5:28] could be used for. [5:29] But it would not be. [5:30] A wholesale invasion of the Republic of Iran. It might be seizing the cargo oil terminal [5:36] and restricting Iran's ability to use those facilities to raise money. It might be for [5:42] seizing some of the islands in the Straits of Hormuz, the littoral area. Those are excellent [5:46] missions for the U.S. Marines. It's what they're designed to do. All of those missions [5:51] would come with some element of risk, both politically and operationally. [5:56] The troops would be subject not just while they're conducting the seizure and seizing [6:00] that to [6:00] Ukraine. But for the enduring time that they are occupying it, they would probably still [6:04] be subject to strikes by the remaining missiles and drones that Iran's been using against [6:09] extra elements. And that would require the application of other things like a combat [6:14] air patrol from fighters or intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance, and really tying up a [6:19] large number of forces for the duration of the time that they are there. [6:25] So Beth, the president said today that regime change has been affected, that there is a [6:29] new regime, he says. He's saying that now is not the time for this, it's the time for [6:30] the regime change. He wants a new regime, he said. He wants a regime change. He's asking [6:30] to the United States for his own government in the United States, in particular, for Iran and the [6:31] says the United States is dealing with more rational people. [6:34] And now he also says that a deal, though, is not necessary. [6:37] It's irrelevant at this point. [6:40] How much sense does that make after these 32 days? [6:43] Well, I mean, I think Ambassador Bolton pretty much wrapped up that idea of this is obviously not regime change, [6:49] you know, when you just have different people who have the same ideology. [6:53] But I think that this whole idea of, you know, where are we right now? [6:58] You know, Iran does get a vote here. [7:02] And, you know, one of the things that we're seeing today with the kidnapping of an American journalist in Iraq, [7:09] with IRGC threats against U.S. businesses in the Gulf, [7:14] we've had a number of terrorist groups wrapped up in the region, [7:18] and we've had cyber attacks in the United States. [7:21] So, you know, Iran can still conduct the asymmetric warfare [7:27] that they were able to do in the past. [7:28] But they were designed and built to fight. [7:31] And we should expect them to do that, from the straight to terrorism to cyber. [7:35] We are seeing it. [7:37] It does seem tonight. [7:39] And, Alex, I know this is something that is close to home for you [7:42] because U.S. journalist Shelley Kittleson has been kidnapped, apparently, in Baghdad. [7:47] She's been working in Baghdad. [7:49] You know, the suspected kidnappers are affiliates, basically, of Iran. [7:53] I know you're friends with her and have been in contact roughly with people around the margins here. [7:58] What do you know? [7:59] So, it's unclear exactly who took her at this point. [8:02] You know, it's clear the U.S. government did provide warnings [8:04] that there was a potential for a kidnapping plot [8:06] that could have been, you know, conducted by proxy forces by Iran. [8:10] But it's unclear exactly who has her at this point. [8:13] She's a journalist. [8:14] She's been operating the region for a long time. [8:16] Generally, one of the nicest people you'll ever meet. [8:18] The government's been incredibly, you know, responsive to it. [8:20] You know, she designated me as her emergency point of contact. [8:23] I believe the family will be taken over shortly, so I don't speak for them or anybody else. [8:26] But in the interim, the government's really doing a great job. [8:29] If it is a proxy, does it show that Iran is trying to maybe, you know, spread their tentacles? [8:35] Well, it's unclear because there could be two different scenarios. [8:37] This could be in response to actions in Lebanon or it could be in response to Iran. [8:40] So, it's really unclear. [8:41] And until they, you know, formally identify who the kidnappers are, they make some demands. [8:44] We're kind of left guessing at the moment. [8:46] Wishing them the best, obviously, here. [8:48] General, I want to ask you about the president now saying that the Strait of Hormuz, [8:51] the United States, whether it's open or not, it's not a U.S. problem. [8:55] So, if the United States does effectively end its role in this conflict, [8:59] Strait still closed, what happens? [9:02] How would European nations or Asian allies work to open it? [9:07] Well, I would say, first, technically, the Straits are not closed. [9:11] But there have been commercial entities that have made the decision that the risk [9:15] is understandably too high, commercial entities and insurance providers, [9:20] that the risk is too high to conduct business there. [9:22] So, the decision to reopen the Straits is not really a military or a political decision. [9:27] It is the decision of those commercial risk owners. [9:30] And what they'll be looking for is a sustained cessation of hostilities that Iran is no longer [9:39] threatening, not only the Straits themselves, it's important it's not just that narrow transit [9:44] corridor, but it's their ability to affect any kind of shipping in the Gulf, as well as we've [9:48] seen targets on the other side, in Bahrain, Qatar, the Emirates, et cetera. [9:53] And so, they'll be looking for decreased number of strikes, as well as diplomatic indications [9:59] that lead them to a war. [10:00] So, it's important to believe that it's not a temporary peace, that it is something that [10:05] is enduring enough for them to take on the risk that it entails.