WH says Iran talks 'going well'; Iran says they are not

[0:00] The new messaging from the White House today after President Trump threatened to obliterate [0:03] Iran's oil, power and water sites. If a deal to end the war is not reached by this time [0:09] next week. At the same time, though, the president is saying that the U.S. is working with a [0:13] new and more reasonable regime. And just a short while ago, Press Secretary Caroline [0:18] Leavitt warned the U.S. could not take Iran at their word. Listen. [0:25] Anything that they say to us privately will be tested and we will ensure that they are being [0:30] held accountable to their word. When the president says more reasonable, again, these folks are [0:34] appearing more reasonable behind the scenes privately in these conversations than perhaps [0:39] some of the previous leaders who are now no longer on planet Earth because they lied to [0:44] the United States. As the president weighs his next move, the war's death toll is rising. [0:49] Regional authorities say that thousands of people have been killed, including 13 U.S. [0:53] service members. Most deaths have happened in Iran, where some 1900 have died, including some [0:59] 200. [1:00] Kids. Lebanon has seen more than 1200 deaths. 124 were children. CNN's Jim [1:07] Shuto is live for us in Tel Aviv, Israel, where I understand that sirens were just blaring, Jim. [1:13] That's right, Boris. I mean, if the tests for the White House for the president is incoming fire, [1:21] there is still incoming fire in the span of just a few minutes here in Tel Aviv. [1:25] There were two air raid signals and we saw the missiles. You see them here as they fly over your [1:29] head coming from Iran this way. And then you see the interceptors come up. [1:34] And maybe there are two energy personnel that they were leading the way through. [1:36] And so there was no evidence that the missile was actually a missile. [1:38] And so there were no reports of a missile. [1:41] We got to the border and we were to the border and we got to the border and we got to the border and we got to the border and we got to the border and we got to the border and we got to the border. [1:45] And then, uh, a couple minutes after that happened. [1:48] That happened just a couple minutes apart here in downtown Tel Aviv on Sunday. [1:52] My team and I went up to the northern border, Israel's northern border, Lebanon, where there is an entirely different front to this war. [1:58] That is Israel against Hezbollah. [2:00] And there the incoming fire is even is even more frequent, perhaps 40 times a day in one of the small communities we visited within less than a mile of the border. [2:01] And as we were there. [2:02] We heard. [2:03] one of those warnings of incoming fire. [2:08] Let's go to the... [2:09] Okay. [2:11] It's a fact of life on Israel's northern border [2:14] that incoming Hezbollah fire comes frequently [2:17] and without warning. [2:24] So this is life up in the north. [2:26] They say about 40 warnings like that a day. [2:30] We just had two of them in the span of five minutes. [2:34] A combination of rockets, [2:36] sometimes anti-tank missiles, [2:39] but also increasingly drones. [2:45] And some of them can't be intercepted. [2:47] The kibbutz Kefar Galadi lies just about a mile [2:50] from the border with Lebanon. [2:52] After the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, [2:55] Israel evacuated communities like these. [2:58] But during this war, they're staying. [3:00] You know, our children in the shelter [3:02] for more than 29 days in a shelter, [3:06] not allowing to go out. [3:09] You know, all the economic ecosystem collapsed. [3:12] The difference now is the Israeli forces [3:19] have launched [3:20] major ground operations inside Lebanon. [3:24] Israeli leaders now speak quite openly [3:27] of pushing that buffer zone, as they call it, [3:30] about 20 miles into Lebanon, [3:32] up to the Latani River. [3:34] That is 20 miles into Lebanese territory. [3:37] And that has forced many thousands, [3:39] hundreds of thousands of Lebanese people [3:41] out of their homes. [3:43] I spoke to the commander of an Israeli company [3:46] on the northern border [3:47] who regularly crosses into Lebanese territory [3:49] for operations. [3:51] And he says he and his unit will continue to do so [3:54] as long as they are ordered to do so. [3:56] And while we were in northern Israel, [3:58] the Israeli prime minister, he visited as well, [4:00] and he extended the area that Israeli forces [4:03] will operate inside Lebanon. [4:05] So we speak of the many fronts of this war, [4:08] certainly in Iran, here in Israel, [4:10] but also inside Lebanon, [4:12] and one that appears to be more as expanding. [4:14] As Trump says that the U.S. is negotiating [4:16] with a new and more reasonable regime, [4:18] in Tehran, [4:20] I wonder if it's clear to you [4:22] that there is an intact leadership structure [4:25] in Tehran, whether it's organized and unified, [4:28] and if it is, whether it's more open [4:31] to the demands of the United States. [4:33] They're not talking directly [4:37] to the people that run the country, [4:39] which is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. [4:42] They're reluctant to get on phones [4:44] because they're concerned [4:46] that they're going to get blown up. [4:48] They have been talking, [4:50] to the Iranian foreign minister, [4:52] and they've had at least one message [4:54] that was delivered [4:56] from the speaker of the parliament, [4:58] who in some ways is kind of the, [5:02] in charge of the political structure, [5:04] even if he's not making any military decisions. [5:07] But these conversations are not direct, [5:09] they're indirect. [5:10] And as you've heard, [5:13] the idea of, [5:14] what I've heard from the White House [5:16] is that this is not, [5:18] they're not negotiations, [5:19] they're talks. [5:21] And the difference here, [5:23] it's a nuance, [5:24] is that you're not yet talking [5:26] about a substantive agreement. [5:28] You're not negotiating [5:30] around what an agreement would look like. [5:32] You're more setting out what your positions are. [5:35] It's very different. [5:36] You're not there yet. [5:37] Yeah, you're setting the table [5:38] for what the negotiations might look like [5:40] if you get there. [5:41] And to that point, [5:43] Iran is an Islamist theocracy, right? [5:46] The regime was founded on resistance [5:48] to the West being a religious obligation [5:51] and martyrdom being a sacred part of that. [5:54] So I wonder if that's something [5:56] you think the United States can simply change [5:58] with airstrikes in a matter of four to six weeks. [6:01] No, no, of course not. [6:04] And nobody believes that. [6:06] And no one believes that there is regime change. [6:08] I mean, Trump can say that it's more reasonable, [6:11] but he's trying to frame a win. [6:14] And since he said at the beginning [6:16] that he refused to work with the United States, [6:19] with the new supreme leader, [6:22] that the son of the old supreme leader [6:24] was not acceptable, [6:26] he's trying to say, [6:27] well, I'm actually achieving [6:29] what I said I wanted at the beginning. [6:31] And since Marco Rubio [6:33] has not included regime change in any form [6:36] as part of the new war goals of the United States, [6:41] then Trump is essentially saying, [6:43] don't worry, it's off the table. [6:44] I've already changed the regime. [6:45] That's not credible, [6:46] but that's what he's at least saying. [6:49] Look, if you're going to get a regime change in Iran, [6:53] it is likely going to come [6:55] not after the war is over, [6:57] but months after that [6:59] because the economy is falling apart [7:02] and because they've only once since 1979 [7:05] actually handled a peaceful internal transfer. [7:08] So I could see a situation [7:10] where their industrial capacity is destroyed, [7:13] their military capacity is destroyed, [7:15] they don't have any water, [7:17] they barely have electricity, [7:18] and you start to see elite infighting. [7:21] And a lot of the people that are, [7:22] especially in the theocracy, [7:24] are incompetent [7:25] because the competent leaders have been killed. [7:27] In that environment, [7:29] I could see Iran shifting [7:31] from a fundamentalist theocracy [7:34] to something that looks more like Pakistan, [7:36] a military dictatorship [7:38] run by the IRGC [7:40] that may or may not over time [7:42] be willing to create some credibility [7:44] by having some civilians engaged. [7:46] But that's not going to come out [7:48] directly because of bombing. [7:51] That's going to come longer term [7:53] after the war is over. [7:54] That, I imagine, would be [7:56] an absolute best-case scenario. [7:58] And as you put it, [7:59] it would be months after the war ends. [8:01] I wonder what can happen in the near term, [8:03] specifically with the Strait of Hormuz, [8:05] because Tehran's stranglehold [8:07] is impacting energy prices across the world, [8:10] and that obviously is an area [8:12] of intense focus for the administration [8:14] as, you know, the press secretary [8:16] does not rule out the potential [8:18] for boots on the ground. [8:22] Well, I mean, you're sending 7,000 troops. [8:24] A lot of them are already there. [8:26] I don't think they're there for shore leave. [8:28] So I expect that the intention [8:30] is to actually use them in combat. [8:33] Now, look, the United States right now [8:35] cannot reopen the Strait with air power. [8:39] They just can't. [8:41] It would take months and months. [8:42] They don't know how to get rid of all the drones, [8:44] and they can't force the ships [8:46] to get insured when they're in harm's way. [8:49] And there's no mechanism to escort them, [8:52] given all of that. [8:53] So what they could do [8:55] is they could stop the Iranians from exporting. [8:57] They could do that in a hot second. [8:59] Remember, the Iranians are getting their ships out, [9:02] and they're making a lot of money for it. [9:04] The Americans have suspended those sanctions. [9:06] And, of course, they're allowing some, [9:08] a small number of boats, [9:10] of their friends, like Pakistan. [9:12] We've had a maximum of 5% of previous traffic, [9:15] pre-war traffic, getting through [9:18] over the past days. [9:20] If the U.S. wanted to shut that down [9:22] and squeeze the Iranians [9:24] in terms of their resources, their money, [9:27] they could do that. [9:28] But it would have less of an effect, [9:30] given how much money they've made [9:31] over the last four weeks, [9:32] which is far more than they were making before. [9:34] So that doesn't appear to be the strategy. [9:36] What appears to be the strategy [9:38] is taking these troops, going in, [9:40] and taking some raids on coastal areas [9:44] to further degrade Iran's military ability [9:47] to disrupt the Straits, [9:48] maybe taking some of the islands [9:51] that are in the Strait that are contested [9:53] to change the balance of power over the Strait, [9:56] and then over time, perhaps, [9:59] take the Karg Island, [10:01] where Iran actually exports its oil from. [10:05] That's very far from an off-ramp. [10:07] That looks like almost certainly [10:10] like a period of escalation is coming.