Vance confronts a new political reality: 2028 ‘may not be his time’

[0:00] New CNN reporting this morning details how allies and advisors to Vice President J.D. Vance are [0:04] saying he may not run now for president come 2028. Multiple sources telling CNN Vance is really [0:10] wrestling with his ambitions in this moment amid a fractured MAGA base and of course on the heels [0:15] of last week's GOP shellacking. One source close to Vance saying he's young enough that he can have [0:20] a comeback should the environment make success possible. It just may not be his time. CNN's [0:25] Elina Treen is at the White House. Joining us now with more of her reporting. So Elina you spoke [0:30] with a number of these allies of Vance and they were pretty consistent in what they told you. [0:35] Yeah look I mean what they argue in all these conversations I've had we spoke with roughly a [0:42] dozen of the vice president's allies and his advisors and he still has just not made up his [0:48] mind about what he wants to do. They describe someone who is really wrangling with this decision [0:54] over his future political ambitions the fracturing that we saw of the MAGA coalition [0:58] in last week's very disappointing midterm elections for Republicans and then also of course the [1:04] demands of fatherhood something we've heard the vice president speak about publicly. He's also [1:09] though we're told very committed to wanting to rebuild the movement that helped relaunch the [1:14] president's second bid successfully of course to the White House in 2024. Just a question of whether [1:19] or not he's going to be the one to lead it and looming over all of this Erica is this consistent [1:24] theme. We've seen the vice president put the blame for those losses on this as well. The Iran war. [1:30] That is really what a lot of people say. You know question really if the war isn't over can any [1:37] Republican win in that environment. This is a quote from someone very close to the vice president. [1:42] They said the question isn't if JD can do it. It's if the Iran war is still happening. Can any Republican [1:48] do it. If they don't end the war in Iran no Republican has a shot at 2028. I should be clear Erica [1:55] in these conversations. Some people say they actually still think it's more likely that the [2:00] vice president does run than that he doesn't. They also insist that if he does ultimately launch a [2:06] presidential bid they think that he will be the front runner that he will dominate the primaries. [2:11] He does have you know financial ties to to Silicon Valley types like Peter Thiel but it's just very [2:17] much unclear. The president the vice president I should say is still very much trying to figure out [2:22] if this is his time as that one quote that you reference lays out. One thing as well that I think [2:28] is important to note in all of this is the Trump factor. Of course the vice president is going to have [2:34] to deal you know with you know having to defend his role in this administration and the decisions [2:40] that are made with also his own political future and that's part of this as well. The president for [2:46] his part has said that for the time being he's not I mean not making any endorsement. He wants to see [2:51] that primary process play out. We'll see if he actually does do that or if of course advance jumps in [2:56] if he will put his finger on the scale. So that's part of this too. But a lot I think that still needs [3:01] to be decided. A lot we probably won't know. We probably won't really know this answer for a few [3:06] months particularly until after the Iran war is ended or if we see the United States exit Tehran. [3:13] Yeah and Erica up there. Elena really appreciate it. Thank you. What do you think about that? [3:18] I mean this is exactly the right. I mean I was actually talking to Elena on the phone [3:22] and saying how well she and Steve were able to capture this moment for J.D. Vance and this is [3:29] really what we've been hearing for the last several months was this idea that well you know much of the [3:35] public thought that he was the heir apparent that there have been internal questions that he has [3:41] kind of wrestled with in terms of whether or not this is the time for him to run. I mean one of the [3:47] things to keep in mind about Vance is that he goes home every night and has dinner with his family [3:53] after the day is still going. President Trump is still in the mobile. Wife and four young kids. [3:57] Wife and four young kids so he is a father of four young kids. Obviously these are things that [4:01] would change if he's campaigning. There are things that would change you know people are just the [4:06] scrutiny changes. He went on vacation after multiple trips and he took his family for a week and nobody [4:11] reported on it. They didn't report on it until much later when there were several vacations in a row [4:14] but these are things that change and the time that you spend with your family and the time that you [4:18] spend campaigning and these are all things that are going to consideration plus we also just had a [4:22] midterm blowout where Republicans you know got completely crushed. Is he going to be the one [4:28] that is the new leader of the party and has to rebuild it? And on that I want to read a little [4:33] bit more from Elena and Steve's really great reporting. This is another quote. The question isn't [4:40] if JD can do it. It's if the war if the Iran war is still happening can any Republican do it? This is [4:47] according to a Vance ally. If they don't end the war in Iran no Republican has a shot at 2028. [4:54] That is a statement that I imagine a number of Republicans would be willing to say. [4:59] We saw what happened last week with the election and how the war was such a millstone around the [5:05] necks of so many Republicans that were running. Now JD Vance has said that publicly. He said we lost [5:10] because of the war in Iran. He also asked a question to voters and to people in the public saying [5:15] if you think it was worth losing the Senate for the next six years then make that case about the [5:20] war. Donald Trump obviously does and he's been saying I would do it over again but the fact that [5:24] the Senate is lost in the minds of Republicans for six years means that the next president even if it's [5:28] a Republican is going to have a democratically led Senate. Who wants to try to run and divide it [5:34] divide a government for your first two years in office? It's not really that much of an appealing job [5:39] as Republicans are going to find out soon and so I imagine that's playing into the calculus as well. [5:43] If you become president in 2029 you're not going to be able to pass much of your legislation if [5:47] Democrats are running the Senate. Yeah but you'd still be president. But the question is even [5:54] getting there which is another one of your points Talu. This is a Reuters-Ipsos poll and the question [6:01] was among Republican or lean Republican voters which way do you want the potential nominee to go? [6:10] Different than Trump? 52 percent. Similar to Trump? 46 percent. You know that's a post-2026 election [6:20] electorate or certainly those who are answering those questions Jamie. But then there's going back [6:26] to yes he's young. Right. But then there's also that like sometimes you have a moment where everything [6:35] is open for you and you should dive in because that's your moment. And if you don't jump in at [6:43] that time do you miss your moment? And you don't know until you're either you're doing it or you're [6:48] already past it and I'm sure that's one of the big things that Vance is wrestling with right now. [6:53] Ask Barack Obama about. And then ask Chris Christie. Right. It's look weighing your options is what you [7:00] do. I think he's even said he's going to take the holidays which is sort of classic. Two things can [7:06] be true at the same time. To your point about the Iran war that does not seem to be going away any time [7:14] soon as a solution. So so that's going to be a problem for it. But two years is also a long time and things [7:23] can change. Two things I think we need to look at are Republican donors lining up for J.D. Vance. Do they see [7:32] him as as the right person? And also even when you look at that poll you know Donald Trump is a singular [7:42] candidate. Is MAGA dead without Donald Trump? Will J.D. Vance get that kind of support? Yeah. [7:52] Let's listen to a little of what President Trump said in an exchange that he had with Hugh Hewitt [7:57] about who the potential or any potential Republican candidate would be. We have 20 people. Yeah. [8:07] Yeah we have 20 people. Is that what you figure? Yeah I think we've got I've got a list of 20 people. [8:12] I'll run over it with you later. Well we have 20 20 capable. We have 20. We do have the Vice [8:18] President Secretary Rubio Besant Hegseth Burgum Pompeo Kennedy Senators Cotton Cruz Holly McCormick [8:24] Senator Sheehy Governor DeSantis Governor Ducey Governor Huckabee Governor Kemp Governor [8:28] Youngkin Ambassador Haley. They're all very presentable on a stage right when they got like 20 people on the [8:35] stage. Yeah I said that was an interesting 16 was amazing 16 was amazing. I think there'll never be another [8:42] period like that. That was so did you ever see the ratings? I mean a healthy primary is good for [8:50] ratings I guess. But the reality is that yeah it's going to be a busy a busy season for Republicans [8:57] and for Democrats right to decide who is going to lead the future of this party and whether or not [9:03] it is the MAGA movement anymore or whether Republican voters might be willing to move on [9:08] beyond it. I think right now that poll indicates that people are pretty divided on that huge question [9:12] but two years is such a long time to your point Jamie and I think we're going to see how Democrats [9:18] do on the Hill in terms of their oversight and whether the voters who just sent them there feel [9:23] like they overstep that mandate. That may also give some Republicans some room to run and maybe some [9:30] Republicans from Capitol Hill. Who knows? Can I just point one thing out because I think this has been [9:34] a very striking kind of evolution of Donald Trump on this issue. Donald Trump has gone from saying [9:42] J.D. Vance is really great. Marco Rubio is really great. You know it could be J.D. It could be Marco. [9:47] I don't want to get involved just yet but I'm going to endorse to saying there's a lot of really good [9:51] people and I don't know what I'm going to do. Maybe I won't even weigh in. I mean we are seeing him [9:55] like one kind of weigh the options in front of him. Two grapple with his own identity and being a lame [10:01] duck at the same time. But one thing to keep in mind and this is everyone has told him this from [10:06] you know his old chief of staff Susie Wiles to his political advisors that he's going to have to [10:13] weigh in. Specifically early if it's going to be anyone other than Vance because they need a runway [10:18] to get the name recognition to get the fundraising that really only Vance is going to have access to [10:23] if Trump kicks the can down the road. But just seeing Trump kind of walk away from distinct names [10:29] in the last couple times he's been asked and just say like oh there's a lot of good people. [10:32] That just gives you kind of a sense of where his head is too. Yeah that's such a good point. [10:36] Terry let me start with you. The vice president hasn't made a call here but you think it would [10:40] be a mistake for Vance not to run right now and if so why? Well Wolf thanks for having me. I do [10:48] believe that it would be a mistake for J.D. to not run for president. He has a huge opportunity ahead [10:54] of him and he has the base of the conservative movement really the base he has the pulse of of the [11:00] the forgotten man more than a lot of people. He's from Ohio where so many working class voters have [11:06] been forgotten about but this would be a huge opportunity lost by his. He is 42 I will tell [11:12] you that and he's got you know obviously young children at home so he's got a lot to weigh and [11:16] he's got to equally weigh you know his own family and the best thing for them with these political [11:21] calculations but I do sincerely hope he runs because he has a knack for leadership that the country [11:27] greatly needs right now. Julie as you know voters sent a very powerful message that they are very [11:33] unhappy with the state of the U.S. economy right now and the war with Iran. A Vance ally tells CNN [11:39] I'm quoting once again if the Iran war is still happening can any Republican do it? If they don't [11:45] end the war in Iran no Republican has a shot at 2028 end quote. Will the war just be a liability for [11:52] Republicans when Democrats take control of Congress next month? I think Donald Trump will be a liability [12:00] for Republicans because he's done nothing to absorb the losses that he had last week and he's done [12:05] nothing to change course. In fact he's doubled down by appointing Stephen Miller continuing to talk about [12:10] the war doing nothing to help the economy and so for that reason it's going to be very very challenging [12:15] for anybody associated with Donald Trump to run in 2028 because I don't see his numbers getting [12:20] any better in the next two years. The problem for J.D. Vance is that he's the vice president. He owns [12:25] all of this. He can go ahead and leak to reporters that he really wasn't for the war. He can go ahead [12:29] and talk about how he's distancing himself from the Trumps but the reality is he is a member of the Trump [12:35] administration and he will have to own that and wear that and he's not out there trashing the president [12:41] saying that he disagrees with him publicly. He's as I said leaking. Look his own home state sent a message [12:47] last Tuesday which was that they rejected him and his administration and appointed and elected [12:53] Sherrod Brown to his Senate seat. I mean it's extraordinary that Ohio just sent a message to [12:58] J.D. Vance that they reject him and they reject Donald Trump. With that kind of record it is very [13:03] very hard politically to turn around and say you know what I'm a change agent. I'm not part of this [13:07] administration. I'm going to make something happen in 2028. Yeah I just want to be precise. The [13:13] Democrats will take the majority in Congress and the Senate and the House in January. Not next [13:19] next month in December. In January with a new session of Congress convenes. Terry, J.D. Vance [13:24] blamed Republicans losses directly on the war in a very lengthy social media post. The post that sources [13:31] tell us irritated President Trump at the time. Now the president says he's asking Vance to take his [13:37] focus off the war and turn quote his complete and total attention on the massive corruption and crime [13:45] taking place in Democrat run cities and states throughout the United States. Quote. Is the [13:51] president doing Vance a favor here? What do you think? I don't know that that's a that's an interesting [13:58] question. What I can tell you is that the opposition of the war on top of being against you know the [14:05] conflict and the violence of that the the war caused the cost of living crisis to get even worse [14:10] and be even more front and center of voters minds especially with gas prices. You know we all know how [14:16] important energy prices are when it comes to keeping prices low. I think J.D. Vance and President Trump [14:22] should be spending as much time as possible in getting prices lower and addressing the cost of living [14:28] crisis that so many Americans are very upset about. I think Americans obviously after the midterms are very [14:34] upset about how their their cost of living has gone up right and that should be the primary focus. A lot [14:40] of working families have been struggling primarily due to policies by this administration on the on the Iran [14:47] war but also due to policies that were from the previous administration. The Inflation Reduction Act [14:52] increased inflation and cost of living by nine and a half percent after it was passed. So it's um it's a [14:58] big deal and I think all the time and attention should be focused on making Americans lives better here at [15:03] home and that starts with families the cost of living.