US–Iran: Race for a deal before ceasefire deadline — This Is America

[0:09] is America, where people are growing restless [0:12] for the conflict with Iran to come to an end. [0:15] As Tehran says it's reopening Hormuz, [0:17] the US and Iran are racing toward a deal. [0:20] I'll be back with more on what Americans think, [0:22] but first, here's Anna Burns-Francis [0:24] in our Washington studio. [0:27] Thanks, Heidi. [0:27] Iran and America are still at war, [0:31] but with just a few days left until the ceasefire expires, [0:34] what or who will decide whether hostilities resume? [0:39] Joining us in a moment, Chief US Correspondent [0:41] Alan Fisher is at the White House, [0:43] and Manny Rapalow is at the State Department today. [0:46] Right from the start, US President Donald Trump [0:49] has been overwhelmingly optimistic about America's success, [0:53] declaring the war over, nearly over, or won [0:55] more than 12 times so far. [0:59] I don't want to be a wise guy. [1:00] I don't want to speak too soon, but we do very well. [1:04] You notice that we're doing very well, [1:06] and I will say the war in Iran is going along swimmingly. [1:10] I said, we were in there for two months, and you know what? [1:13] We're going to have victory very shortly. [1:16] And against a very tough, smart country, [1:19] these people were fighters. [1:22] But those fighters have put up a bit more of a fight [1:24] than many in the administration appear to have expected. [1:27] Blocking the Strait of Hormuz immediately extended the conflict [1:31] and the chance of a peace deal. [1:33] And Iran's made it very clear it's not going to have its arm twisted. [1:38] If the American side proposes a package and expects Iran [1:43] to accept it in full, they know that this is not viable. [1:47] It's also completely at odds with the logic behind negotiations. [1:51] At the very least, it seems sparring over the Strait of Hormuz could be over, [1:58] with the US President announcing Iran has agreed to open it. [2:02] So who now hold the sea upper hand when it comes to calling an end to the war? [2:07] Each side is facing similar competing pressures at home to reach a deal. [2:12] President Trump needs to shift public opinion on the unpopular war [2:16] ahead of November's midterm elections. [2:18] He needs to avoid Republicans losing control of both the House and Senate. [2:23] The rising cost of living is also a major issue for voters. [2:27] Trump promised to bring down fuel and grocery prices, [2:30] but the war has forced both of those to go up. [2:33] And the mounting costs can't be counted in just dollars. [2:36] US soldiers have already been killed or wounded, [2:40] and that number could rise if the war resumes. [2:43] Meanwhile, Iran's most immediate concern post-war [2:46] will be rebuilding its destroyed infrastructure. [2:49] Tens of billions of dollars worth of damage has been caused by American and Israeli strikes, [2:54] which will take years to repair. [2:56] Tehran also needs to rebuild relationships with its neighbors. [2:59] Ties have been strained as Iran responded to US strikes [3:03] by firing drones and missiles towards the Gulf. [3:06] And like America, Iranians are also concerned about the cost of living. [3:10] There were months of protests before the war, [3:12] and a deal with the US could lift and revitalize its economy. [3:16] For more on this, we're joined now by Manny Rapalo at the State Department [3:19] and Alan Fisher at the White House. [3:21] Alan will come to you first. [3:23] What's really influencing Donald Trump to get a deal done? [3:26] Well, a number of things can be true at the same time. [3:29] One of them is the fact that he would like to see Iran have no nuclear weapons. [3:34] He's talked about it since 2016. [3:35] He's campaigned about it during his three presidential election campaigns. [3:40] He believes that that is the bottom line for him, that there is no nuclear program in Iran. [3:47] He also wants to make sure that they can't fund proxies that have attacked their neighbors [3:51] and also the United States over many, many years. [3:55] He wants to make sure that the administration in Tehran doesn't think that that is one of [4:01] their prime concerns. [4:02] And then he's got domestic concerns as well. [4:05] He wants to be the president who brought an end to the war in Iran. [4:08] Remember, he campaigned on no stupid foreign wars in the Middle East, no more forever wars. [4:15] He doesn't want this to drag on. [4:16] He doesn't want tagged with that. [4:18] His team knew that that could be a problem when they initially talked about launching an [4:22] attack on Iran. [4:23] But they were confident they'd be able to spin it to the American people. [4:27] But one thing they haven't been able to spin is the financial impact that many people have [4:31] felt. [4:32] Cost of living is much more expensive. [4:35] Basic things are much more expensive. [4:37] He needs to convince them that this really is, as he has often said, just short term pain [4:43] for long term gain of a no nuclear Iran and cheaper prices in the long run. [4:47] All right, Manny, I'll bring you in here because there is, of course, a third party involved [4:51] in this conflict. [4:52] That is Israel. [4:53] How is the U.S. exerting pressure on Israel to get a deal done? [5:01] And the focus from Washington right now is to get this deal. [5:04] And there's a lot of optimism over that scenario right now. [5:07] But to reach that point of a deal, the U.S. has to ensure that there isn't going to be [5:11] any spillover. [5:13] And that is where we're seeing the pressure from the United States on Israel starting to [5:17] take shape. [5:18] Now, just on Thursday, the State Department issued a statement regarding that U.S. brokered agreement [5:25] understanding between Israel and Lebanon to create that 10 day ceasefire that would open [5:32] up a space for broader negotiations. [5:34] And that in itself is a signal that Washington is actively trying to pressure Israel to not [5:41] carry out any military operations, particularly along the Lebanese border and avoid any sort [5:47] of anything that could derail U.S. talks with Iran. [5:51] Meanwhile, Washington is still putting heavy pressure on Iran. [5:53] So in short, what we're seeing is the United States trying to pressure both sides, continue [5:58] to pressure Iran while also sort of gently nudging Israel not to escalate here. [6:04] Again, there's a lot of optimism, especially among U.S. diplomats here over the potential [6:09] window for a diplomatic outcome. [6:12] But it is still a window. [6:13] But that's part of the reason why we're seeing so much urgency to secure a deal right now. [6:18] Manny Laparro joining us from the State Department and Alan Fisher at the White House. [6:21] Thank you both. [6:23] The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is ticking down. [6:28] But while plans are being made for more talks, there are questions about what each side actually [6:32] wants and how much influence Israel has behind the scenes. [6:37] John Holman looks at whether a deal is really within reach. [6:43] President Trump might have thought victory over Iran would be a quick knockout. [6:48] Instead, it's turned into something else. [6:50] It's a very high level chance, the highest, and I'm dealing with very smart players. [6:55] And Iran, which has been playing the game since the seventh century, has always seemed [7:00] a move ahead, closing the Strait of Hormuz, widening the conflict by attacking Gulf states. [7:07] But now both sides are looking for a way out. [7:09] And the clock's running. [7:11] Only days remain of a fragile ceasefire. [7:15] The U.S. has made two big moves. [7:17] The first blockading Iranian oil, hoping to gain the advantage in the ongoing talks. [7:25] But also announcing a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. [7:29] Iran had demanded it as a prerequisite for any deal. [7:34] Both sides probably now realize that there's no checkmate in this game. [7:39] And as they inch their way towards the second round of negotiations, they'll both know that [7:44] they have to make concessions if they want to bring this to a close. [7:49] The U.S. has hinted it could also lift sanctions. [7:52] But its chief demand hasn't budged. [7:54] No nukes. [7:55] If you guys commit to not having a nuclear weapon, we are going to make Iran thrive. [8:01] We're going to make it economically prosperous. [8:04] Iran, according to the U.S. president, has now pledged not to have nuclear weapons for [8:08] more than 20 years. [8:10] It's also made another big concession, saying it's opening Hormuz for as long as the ceasefire [8:16] lasts. [8:17] Trump says the U.S. will maintain its blockade for now. [8:20] Meanwhile, the rest of the world is looking on, hoping that this chess match is now in [8:25] its endgame. [8:28] And that the biggest oil disruption in history can be brought to a close. [8:33] John Holman, Al Jazeera, Washington. [8:36] While public opinion on the war continues to sour amongst Americans, Heidi Jo Castro went [8:41] to take the temperature from a protest in downtown Washington, D.C. [8:46] These demonstrators have gathered at the U.S. Capitol to call for an end to the war with [8:51] Iran. [8:52] They say they're people of faith and Christians who want a permanent ceasefire. [8:56] Is Trump really sincere about wanting a deal to end this war with Iran? [9:01] Is he sincere about — is Trump sincere about anything? [9:04] I don't know. [9:05] I think he doesn't know. [9:07] He just says whatever pops in his head. [9:09] He's proven himself repeatedly not to be trusted. [9:13] How do you think the threat from Iran should be dealt with? [9:15] I'm not even sure that Iran really poses a threat. [9:19] I think it's a perceived threat. [9:21] I think that, you know, Iran wants to enrich uranium for civilian purposes. [9:27] Do you think a peace deal should include the U.S. having an active role of controlling [9:32] that strait? [9:33] I definitely don't think the U.S. should have that part of that control, unless it involves [9:40] countries adjacent to the — to the — to the straits and includes a broader selection [9:48] of nations. [9:49] Do you trust Israel to keep their part of the deal? [9:51] I am a person of faith, and so I have to have faith that if the right steps are taken at [9:56] the beginning for diplomacy, that that will pay off and that they will act faithfully. [10:03] Those protester voices are, of course, just a sliver of the greater American public. [10:09] But recent poll numbers show that the country, as a whole, is moving in their direction. [10:14] The Economist YouGov just published these numbers. [10:16] Thirty-two percent of Americans say they support the war with Iran. [10:21] Fifty-five percent say they oppose it. [10:24] Thirty-five percent approve of the way Donald Trump is handling the situation in Iran. [10:28] Fifty-seven percent disapprove. [10:31] And as for how Americans rate Donald Trump's skill at negotiating agreements, well, you [10:37] see, at the top, twenty-two percent said excellent, sixteen percent said good, ten percent said [10:42] fair, and the greatest number of people, forty-three percent, said that Trump's negotiation skills [10:48] are poor. [10:50] That's not a lot of confidence domestically in the president's ability to bring this war [10:54] to a conclusive end in a way that benefits Americans. [11:00] So, who has the willingness, then, and what's the driving that will to get back to the negotiating [11:04] table? [11:05] To give us their perspective today, we're joined by Mark Ginsberg, a former U.S. Ambassador, [11:10] and Jennifer Gavito, former Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs. [11:14] Thank you both for coming in. [11:15] Ambassador, I'll start with you. [11:16] In the latest twist, the Strait of Hormuz has been announced as reopened. [11:20] Has Iran got one over on the U.S. with this call? [11:24] Well, I think strategically there's malfeasance that has been practiced now at this point in [11:29] time regarding the Straits, because Iran has been able to prove as a result of the conflict [11:36] that somehow or other the control that it never really had before the war, all of a sudden, [11:41] it could just issue a tweet or some sort of statement and say, guess what, the Straits [11:47] are now closed again. [11:48] Well, which boatload of oil is going to want to navigate the Straits, even if the Iranians [11:57] no longer have a navy? [11:58] And the Americans have said that while their blockade will not affect foreign flagged vessels, [12:06] they still have said, at least in the last hour or two hours ago, they still plan to stop [12:12] Iranian vessels. [12:13] We have no clarity at this point in time. [12:16] And if you were a captain of a ship waiting to traverse the Straits, what would you do knowing [12:22] your insurance company is not going to let you proceed? [12:25] Yeah. [12:25] So, Jennifer, perhaps a little early to be asking this, but what then do you think Iran gets [12:29] out of announcing the strait being reopened? [12:32] So, I think both Iran and the United States have determined at this point that there are [12:37] diminishing returns in continuing armed conflict. [12:41] So, for Iran, it gets back to potentially a degree of normalcy. [12:46] And, again, I mean, I absolutely agree with Ambassador Ginsburg in that we don't really [12:51] know yet what the parameters of this agreement are. [12:54] It is still possible, and certainly from social media suggests potentially true, that Iran can [13:00] continue to charge tolls to some degree. [13:03] So, freedom of navigation has not necessarily been restored. [13:08] Again, I think it is very premature to take stock of what either side wins and gains until [13:15] we have a bit more clarity. [13:16] But, again, if reports are true that Iran will get sanctions relief, considerable sanctions [13:21] relief out of this deal, then they are back in a situation where they can restock their [13:26] arsenal and have some degree of economic flexibility that they didn't actually have before this [13:32] conflict. [13:33] Ambassador, Jennifer's alluded perhaps there to what the motivation might have been. [13:39] But when I first saw this news, I thought, oh, wouldn't you save that for the negotiating [13:43] table? [13:44] And so I'm wondering what you think the motivation was for Iran and announcing it before we even [13:48] know of any hard talks taking place. [13:51] Several reasons. [13:52] The Iranians are going to have to engage in what essentially is a way of priming the Gulf [13:59] states back at least to having normalization of relations with them after the Iranians [14:05] attacked every one of the Gulf states, civilian as well as energy infrastructure. [14:11] You know, they had been on a courting phase during the last few years trying to get the Gulf [14:16] states to consider Iran to be a partner and try to lure them away from their engagement with Israel [14:23] and the United States. [14:25] Well, I think that that has changed. [14:27] But there's another thing going on here. [14:30] I moderated a panel on Iran in the Senate yesterday. [14:34] And one of the issues that came out and was clear is that the IRGC has taken virtually total [14:43] control of what remains of the Iranian government. [14:47] And they need the oil revenue in order to maintain some semblance of internal control. [14:54] And that the fact that that oil revenue has been stopped as a result of this blockade is [14:59] far more significant to them than a resumption of the bombing. [15:02] I mean, Iran has always relied on oil for, what, 80 percent of its export income anyway. [15:07] So it would be relevant to them no matter who was in charge. [15:11] Why then do you feel or what do you know then about what difference that makes the fact that [15:16] the IRGC is now in charge of the leadership for where it will take talks? [15:20] The idea that here in Washington there's comments coming out of this administration, [15:26] there's been a regime change. [15:27] Fair and reasonable people. [15:28] Fair and reasonable people. [15:29] Let me tell you something. [15:30] You don't think that's true? [15:30] For those of us, when you see the son of the Ayatollah and the Speaker of the Parliament [15:36] emerging as the key power centers along with the next generals in charge of the IRGC, [15:45] message to Secretary of Defense War Hegseth, this is not the type of team that I would consider [15:52] to be moderate. [15:54] This is a team that is going to dig in hard because, let's face it, the most important [15:59] thing that they have and the most essential requirement is regime survivability. [16:06] It's interesting that you make the note of a warning there because the Secretary of Defense, [16:11] Pete Hegseth, is warning Iran that there is an easy way or a hard way ahead. [16:16] To the KH leadership and IRGC leadership, we're watching you. [16:24] Our capabilities are not the same, our military and yours. [16:27] Remember, this is not a fair fight. [16:30] But there is an alternative. [16:32] As our negotiators have said, you, Iran, can choose a prosperous future, a golden bridge. [16:37] And we hope that you do for the people of Iran. [16:40] So, Jennifer, given the ambassador's comments and the comments there from the Secretary of Defense, [16:45] how do you think that rhetoric will sit with Iran at this stage? [16:49] I think Iran is probably gleeful about this. [16:52] They are being given a golden opportunity without really giving up a lot. [16:56] And again, I just want to keep stressing that I do think it's early to make judgments about [17:00] what this looks like. [17:01] But potentially, they're walking away with no real deal or no real concessions on a missile [17:06] program, no concessions on a drone program, continued possession, and we don't know for [17:12] how long or to what degree, but of enriched uranium, the knowledge that they can shut down [17:18] global commerce at will should they deem in the future that they need to. [17:24] And then you've got, you know, a U.S. administration that is talking about them as they are as if [17:29] they are a legitimate negotiating partner. [17:31] And one of the challenges with this relationship over past years is this deficit of trust, the [17:36] fact that we have not been able to rely on the promises that the Iranian regime has made, [17:43] which is why, for example, with JCPOA, you had such a stringent oversight mechanism through [17:48] the IAEA. [17:49] No discussion about that so far. [17:51] And so for Iran, this really leaves open a door to renewed economic activity in ways that [17:57] we have not seen in a long time and that really, again, to the ambassador's point, [18:02] allow the regime to reestablish some credibility at home by virtue of growing the economy again. [18:09] And so I think, you know, whatever the Secretary of War, Secretary of Defense says about this as far [18:15] as watching, you know, this is these are technical questions. [18:19] And that oversight really requires a pretty detailed framework that we've seen no evidence is actually [18:28] being put in place. [18:29] To Jennifer's point there, Ambassador, that the leadership is now being regarded by the U.S. [18:34] administration as legitimate and that these are the people you sit down at the table with, [18:39] what choice do they have? [18:41] This is the leadership that is left. [18:42] This is, you know, Jennifer could not, you know, her points are so well taken insofar as [18:48] what Iran walks away with. [18:50] This regime, in the end, despite the fact that it was pulverized from the air, looks like it's [18:57] going to survive. [18:58] There has not been an uprising. [19:01] Why would they, why would the public uprise again and die in the streets because the Basis [19:06] still have power there and the guns? [19:08] But what is most disconcerting, no uprising, the Iranians are not control the Gulf. [19:15] The American people have soured on a war. [19:18] The president is desperately looking for an off ramp. [19:21] Israel is still battling Hezbollah. [19:23] Syria has no one's ever said anything about Syria yet. [19:26] And the Gulf states have lost an enormous amount of what I call deterrence power from the Iranians. [19:33] The Iranians have now been able to prove that with drones, with an occasional ballistic missile, [19:40] they can wreak havoc on the security. [19:42] And by the way, we haven't even mentioned the Red Sea and what the Houthis may do. [19:46] Yeah, we're trying to stick to one waterway at a time, I think, perhaps. [19:49] In terms of trying to come to an agreement, it has been a conflict full of barbed trading [19:53] between the two countries. [19:55] Vice President J.D. [19:56] Vance, the man seemingly offering an olive branch to Iran. [19:59] What the president wants to make, he doesn't want to make, like, a small deal. [20:05] He wants to make the grand bargain. [20:07] And what he's basically offering to Iran is very simple. [20:10] And frankly, it's something that no president has, I think, has had the ability to offer. [20:15] He said that if you're willing to act like a normal country, [20:18] we are willing to treat you economically like a normal country. [20:22] J.D. Vance used the words grand bargain there, Jennifer. [20:25] What do you think grand bargain means? [20:27] That remains to be seen. [20:29] One thing that I will give President Trump certainly is that he has an unorthodox way [20:33] of executing foreign policy. [20:35] And so there is a creativity and a flexibility to this administration's positions that allows [20:42] it to move outside of some of those rigid lines that have defined our policy towards Iran in [20:47] recent years. [20:48] That being said, I think it's really important to remember that we characterized last week's [20:54] negotiations, which lasted 21 hours, as a failure. [20:57] We're now a week later. [20:59] JCPOA dealt only with the nuclear issue, and that took years to negotiate. [21:05] And so when you talk about a grand bargain, I personally am a bit skeptical that that is, [21:10] in fact, what we're going to get here. [21:13] The press is reporting that there is a three-page MOU at the moment. [21:16] I don't know if that is correct or not. [21:19] But three pages is not a grand bargain. [21:21] It does set the stage for future discussions, and I think that is a net positive from this. [21:25] But a grand bargain would take all of these issues into account that we're talking about, [21:30] the regional proxies, the Houthis, Hezbollah, what becomes of Syria, how do you protect that? [21:36] All of these things would be wrapped up in that. [21:38] And I have not seen yet suggestions that this administration has the staying power to actually negotiate the type of detailed grand bargain that would be needed to fundamentally set this relationship on a different trajectory. [21:53] That we get a short-term ceasefire extension, that we can go back to some degree of global commerce. [21:59] That, again, net positive. [22:01] I think that's good news. [22:02] Of all those things that Jennifer just listed there, Ambassador, there is also the issue of Israel's role in this. [22:08] And where do they sit in any talks or negotiation? [22:10] How does the U.S. administration maneuver that relationship into any ceasefire or long-term deal? [22:17] It's interesting. [22:18] At the beginning of this conflict, Benjamin Netanyahu seemed to be in the driver's seat. [22:22] At this point of the conflict, he's in the back of the bus. [22:28] This administration is so desperate for an exit ramp, it's going to try to put lipstick, so much lipstick on this pig, by declaring that this is a great negotiated victory. [22:39] Look, there are no moderates in Iran, period. [22:42] Whatever agreement is reached, the Iranians will find a way to wiggle out of. [22:46] As long as this regime is in place, it is never going to change its spots when it comes to dealing with Israel, dealing with the restoration of its weapons program, and repressing the poor people of Iran. [23:00] What has happened here is essentially no one has gained anything. [23:04] There's been a lot of losses. [23:06] The Israelis still don't have a strategic victory. [23:09] The Americans certainly have no strategic victory. [23:11] The Iranians live to fight another day, and the poor Gulf states are left wondering who is going to be their protector. [23:20] Jennifer, then, can I ask you, what is it that the American administration has failed to understand about Iran's perspective here? [23:27] I think from moment number one, it underestimated what Iran would define as success. [23:35] And for Iran, simply surviving this conflict is a strategic win. [23:40] That's all they had to do. [23:41] And they have not only done that, but they have deployed the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon in a way that they had never done before. [23:49] And so I think this administration continues to, again, underestimate, misunderstand. [23:56] I mean, even the approach to negotiations last week, the points, the 10 points, the 14, 15 points that were talked about, [24:02] were the types of maximalist positions that you would offer to an adversary that you believe had been defeated. [24:09] Iran did not believe itself to be defeated. [24:12] It believes itself to be coming out of this conflict in a strategically better position than when it started. [24:18] And so the negotiations have to reflect that if you're going to get to, you know, this grand bargain that Vice President Vance was talking about. [24:26] And, again, to be clear, that would be a positive for everybody if you could achieve it. [24:30] But you've got to be realistic. [24:31] And I couldn't agree more. [24:32] There are no moderates here. [24:33] If anything, the elimination of the top tier of leadership in the beginning days of this conflict gave way to a harder-line regime than what you previously had. [24:44] And so whatever is agreed to, whatever is stated in social media in the days ahead, [24:49] I think you have to keep in mind that this regime is being run by the IRGC, [24:54] which fundamentally remains committed to the destruction of the United States and to Israel, [24:58] of the elimination of U.S. troops from the Middle East. [25:01] These positions have not changed. [25:03] A commitment to the projection of power through the proxies, none of that has changed. [25:08] And we're yet to see how it may change as well over the coming days. [25:11] Absolutely. [25:12] But I am quite sceptical. [25:14] Yeah. [25:14] Fair enough. [25:15] Thank you so much, both of you, for coming in. [25:17] Jennifer Gavito and Mark Gisberg, appreciate it. [25:19] Pleasure. [25:20] Well, online, there's been a battle over how and when the war with Iran will officially be over. [25:25] The conversation heating up as the end of the ceasefire looms. [25:28] Alex Baird has this breakdown. [25:31] The race for a deal. [25:33] The host of the D.C.-based Iran podcast saying both sides want out. [25:38] For Trump, global energy prices and slumping approval ratings are taking their toll. [25:42] The president needs a decisive win. [25:44] While in Tehran, leaders are looking for a durable end, but also relief from crippling financial sanctions. [25:51] Now, on top of that, war damage. [25:53] For the president, his chickens are finally coming home to roost. [25:59] They're willing to do things today that they weren't willing to do two months ago. [26:03] The White House painting the rosiest of pictures. [26:06] The stock market is good. [26:07] Oil prices are already coming down and a deal is nearly here. [26:11] Trump apparently telling the Dutch king and queen this week he wants the war done, he wants it done quickly, and so the pressure has been turned up to the max. [26:20] A lot of the narrative here is that Iran is terrified of a looming economic catastrophe if sanctions aren't pulled back. [26:27] And with reports American troops are still streaming into the Gulf, the White House wants videos like these to be front of the Iranian mind. [26:35] But if you step out of that echo chamber, the other side is framing this all as a desperate Trump looking for a way out because he's losing. [26:44] Iran exposing U.S. superpower as a Hollywood illusion. [26:48] Former White House comms director Hunter Trump, Anthony Scaramucci, saying Trump's increasingly unhinged posts digs at the Pope. [26:56] Christ-like images show what's happening inside his mind. [27:00] Those sorts of tweets and that outlandishness when it tips over into where he is now, that's where I think you're seeing the pressure come out of him. [27:08] Many wondering now if that pressure will finally lead to that deal. [27:15] That's all from the team here in Washington, D.C. [27:17] We'll hand back now to Al Jazeera's global headquarters in Doha. [27:20] Thanks for joining us.