US says Iran ceasefire ‘not over’ despite attacks in Strait of Hormuz — BBC News

[0:03] Hello, I'm Kasia Madeira. This is the Iran War Today, our daily briefing, bringing you up to [0:08] date with all you need to know on day 67 of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. So let's start with [0:15] some of the key developments today. The U.S. Defense Secretary says Washington is not looking [0:19] for a fight with Iran. Despite exchanges of fire on Monday, he said the ceasefire remains intact. [0:27] We're not looking for a fight, but Iran also cannot be allowed to block innocent countries [0:32] and their goods from an international waterway. President Trump says he's making deals with [0:38] South Korea and Japan on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Both countries rely heavily on oil from [0:44] the strait, and yesterday a South Korean ship was hit by an explosion and caught fire. [0:50] Iran's foreign minister says the exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz shows there's no military [0:55] solution to what he called a political crisis. Pakistan says it continues to exchange messages [1:02] between Tehran and Washington, but still no sign of any diplomatic talks on the horizon. [1:09] The month-long ceasefire is looking dangerously fragile. After fending off Iranian missiles and [1:14] drones on Monday, the UAE says its air defenses have been activated again for a second day in a row. [1:21] And almost three weeks into a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, [1:25] the U.N. Security Council has met to discuss the ongoing fighting. [1:29] The ceasefire is not over, claims Pete Hegseth, a day after the U.S. exchanged fire with Iranian [1:38] ships in the Strait of Hormuz. While the U.S. Defense Secretary said the U.S. is not looking for [1:44] a fight, but warned Iran that any attempt to disrupt Project Freedom would be met with overwhelming U.S. [1:51] firepower. Secretary Hegseth said Project Freedom was a temporary measure to show allies that it's [1:57] possible to guide ships through the strait. This is a temporary mission for us. As I've said before, [2:05] the world needs this waterway a lot more than we do. We're stabilizing the situation so commerce can [2:11] flow again, but we expect the world to step up at the appropriate time, and soon we will hand [2:18] responsibility back to you. Well, we've also heard from President Donald Trump, who said that the U.S. [2:23] has shown the world it is winning the conflict with Iran. Iran has no chance. They never did. [2:30] They know it. They express it to me when I talk to them. Then they get on television. They say [2:36] how well they're doing. And they have no Navy totally wiped out. They have no Air Force totally [2:42] wiped out. They have no anti-aircraft capability totally wiped out. No radar. They have no leaders. [2:51] The leaders are wiped out. The whole thing. And then I read the papers and they say how well they're [2:56] doing. They're not doing well. That's why you have no credibility. [3:00] Well, let's cross over live to Washington to speak to our U.S. State Department correspondent, [3:05] Tom Bateman. Tom, what is going on? Because the U.S. says that a ceasefire is still holding, [3:11] but evidently there are strikes being made. Where are we? [3:16] Well, on the first point about the administration saying the ceasefire remains intact, I mean, [3:21] they're adamantly going to say that because of this issue they've had with Congress, [3:26] whereby all Democrats and even some Republicans are feeling pretty uneasy now about the fact that [3:33] from the start of this war on the 28th of February, we're now well past the legal limit of 60 days [3:38] before which a U.S. president is supposed to come to Congress to ask for authorization to continue [3:44] military operations. Well, that clearly hasn't happened. That is because the administration argues [3:49] that the clock stopped when the ceasefire came into effect on the 7th of April. So, you know, [3:55] that is another motivation for Mr. Hegseth and others to keep saying that, no, the ceasefire remains [4:01] intact, despite the fact you're seeing exchanges of fire between the U.S. and Iran. And reports again [4:08] in the last few hours of air defences activated in the United Arab Emirates. So clearly the situation [4:14] there remains pretty bad. In terms of the actual military operation in the Strait of Hormuz, [4:21] this is the U.S. trying to reopen it by force. And I think the coming days will be absolutely [4:26] decisive because you've got now the Pentagon saying there are hundreds of ships lining up to come [4:32] through. You've got the Iranians saying, no, we remain in control of the Strait of Hormuz, [4:37] continuing to fire to harass and intimidate shipping. So whether or not you start to see movement [4:43] en masse through that waterway is absolutely critical to the Trump administration's intentions [4:49] here. Indeed. Tom, thank you so much. Tom Bateman there, our U.S. State Department correspondent. [4:55] Well, fire at Fujairah port in the UAE on the evening of the 4th of May. There have been claims [5:03] and counterclaims from the U.S. and Iran over what has been happening in the Strait of Hormuz. [5:08] Ben Chu from BBC Verify has been looking into what's actually been going on in the last few days. [5:12] There have been many conflicting claims about what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz in recent [5:18] days. Here's what we know and also don't yet know. On Sunday, Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy would [5:24] guide ships safely out of these restricted waterways and that this would be called [5:29] Project Freedom. Now, the United States claims two U.S. warships and two U.S. flagged commercial [5:36] ships have safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz as part of this operation. And the shipping line, [5:41] Mersk, has said that one of its ships, the Alliance Fairfax, a vehicle's carrier was one of them. Now, [5:47] we can't verify that. The marine traffic tracking data, which is based on ship's radio transponder [5:54] signals, shows the Alliance Fairfax here, still within the Gulf. But it hasn't been updated since [6:00] the 1st of March. So the vessel must have turned its transponder off or gone dark, something we know [6:06] many ships have been doing since this conflict began. And there is still danger in the Strait. [6:14] UK Maritime Trade Operations has received three reports of incidents in these locations around [6:21] the Strait on Sunday and Monday. A South Korean shipping line has said one of its vessels, a general [6:28] cargo ship called the HMM Narmu, experienced an explosion on Monday while at anchor. You can see [6:35] its position today here, though it's not clear at this stage whether it was caused by a drone [6:40] or missile attack or by a drifting sea mine. The Abu Dhabi state oil firm has said that one of its [6:47] empty crude oil tankers, the Baraka, was struck by Iranian drones. The Baraka's last transmitted [6:54] position was here, but on the 24th of April, implying that it too has gone dark. Iran also claims to have [7:02] fired on US shipping. That has been supported by a Monday briefing by US CENTCOM. But the US denies [7:09] that these strikes hit their intended targets. Again, we're not able to verify this or the claim [7:14] from Donald Trump that the US military has destroyed seven Iranian military small fast boats, which Iran [7:20] has counter claimed were in fact civilian boats. But another point about ship tracking. This shows ship [7:28] tracking movements in and around the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. Analysts say this glitchy pattern of [7:33] shipping movements and clustering here indicates not actual ship movements, but likely defensive [7:39] local global positioning system jamming by someone, possibly the United Arab Emirates, to make it more [7:45] difficult for GPS guided Iranian drones or missiles to find their target. So if that's what this is, [7:52] these defensive operations are making it even harder than usual to monitor shipping movements [7:56] through the strait. Finally, it's important to bear in mind that there are also threats to targets [8:02] on land as well as at sea. United Arab Emirates has reported defending itself against Iranian drone [8:08] strikes. And this is footage that we've verified of a fire at a vital UAE refinery on Monday. [8:17] A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been in place for almost three weeks, but it appears to be [8:23] a ceasefire in name alone, with fighting continuing in southern Lebanon. Israeli strikes in southern [8:29] Lebanon have killed 110 people since Thursday. Israel says 17 of its soldiers have been killed [8:35] in the same period in ground clashes with the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Well, to address [8:41] the ongoing fighting, the UN Security Council held a special meeting today in New York. Well, let's cross [8:47] over to our Middle East correspondent, Wira Davis, who joins us from Jerusalem. And we're with so many [8:52] people dead in southern Lebanon. This is a ceasefire in all but name. Yeah, as you say, [9:00] there is meant to be, and there's meant to have been for the last three weeks, a ceasefire in southern [9:05] Lebanon between Israel and Lebanon. But of course, Hezbollah is not parted to that ceasefire. And that [9:10] is part of the reality, part of the problem. And we've been hearing in detail today from the Israeli [9:15] defence forces, the Israeli military, about their military operations over the last few days in [9:20] particular, during which, of course, this ceasefire is meant to have been in place. The Israelis said [9:24] they've been targeting Hezbollah positions, rocket launchers, and in particular, what the Israelis are [9:29] describing as tunnel networks inside Lebanese territory across the border around this exclusion [9:36] zones the Israelis have imposed. What we haven't heard from the Israelis, but we know from the Lebanese [9:41] side, is that well over 100 people have been killed since this increasing Israeli military [9:46] offensive last Thursday. Israel, as you said, has lost fighters of its own. Hezbollah has been [9:54] targeting, in particular, occupying Israeli soldiers inside southern Lebanon. But it's those villages and [10:01] towns outside the exclusion zone that have been hit particularly badly over recent days. And the concern is, [10:06] of course, that if this ceasefire doesn't hold, and that is dependent also on the situation over in [10:13] Iran, the American-Iranian ceasefire, if the whole thing collapses there, then inevitably the ceasefire [10:20] agreement between the Lebanese government and Israel will also probably collapse. And we'll see a big [10:26] resumption in the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon. It will expand certainly beyond southern [10:32] Lebanon, perhaps again to bombing parts of Beirut and other towns and cities across Lebanon itself. So a great [10:39] hope, but not much, great concern, but not much hope in Lebanon that the ceasefire will hold. [10:44] Rua Davis in Jerusalem, thank you. So with fighting growing in the south of Lebanon, the U.S. and [10:51] Iranian ships exchanging fire in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran firing missiles and drones towards the UAE, [10:58] where do things stand? Well, I'm pleased to say we're joined by our international editor, Jeremy Bowen. [11:03] Let's start with the ceasefire that the United States insists is a ceasefire with Iran. They have [11:10] to say that, otherwise they need Congress's approval. Yes, and also they do. I think it's clear they don't [11:16] want to go back to war. They've got elections coming. The war is really unpopular in the United States. [11:22] Some polls apparently have been saying it's even more unpopular than things were at the height of the [11:27] Vietnam War. It was that bad in terms of the way that people are perceiving it. So no, it was very [11:34] interesting, despite the fact that the ceasefire, I mean, the ceasefire is four weeks old and it's [11:39] showing its age. How do ceasefires start looking frayed around the edges, or even worse than that? [11:45] It's basically when, in this case, there is no diplomatic process backing it up right now. [11:50] They had those negotiations a week or two ago back in Pakistan. They seemed, for a little while, [11:56] to be going somewhere, perhaps. They got together. They even spoke in the same room. But in the end, [12:03] the two sides have both got their red lines and they're not prepared to give them up. [12:06] And that means that there is very, you know, to make a deal, you have to be prepared to give a few [12:12] things up to get to common ground. Neither side is prepared to do that. The Americans believe that [12:17] the economic pressure they're putting on Iran will, in the end, cause the regime to, if not crumble, [12:25] certainly do as it's told. I think that's really unlikely. Equally, the Iranians believe they can [12:32] outlast the Americans. And the danger with all of that is that they get a little bit, they feel [12:37] they overplay their hand. And they haven't yet shown how they can translate this leverage they've [12:43] developed in the Strait of Hormuz, stopping 20 percent of the world's oil and gas and other [12:48] important stuff getting out. They haven't shown how they translate that into a change, an agreed [12:56] change in the status quo that benefits Iran, which is what they say they want to do. They say [13:01] the foreign minister has said there's no going back to the way it was when, before the war started 28th [13:07] of February, when the Americans and the Israelis attacked them, he said there's no going back to [13:12] the way it was then. And Jeremy, what is happening when it comes to the UAE? Because the Emiratis are [13:19] saying that they've had strikes. The Iranians are saying that actually we don't need to target, [13:25] we don't want to target the Emiratis. So what is happening there? Because the UAE are saying that [13:29] their kids are now being remotely schooled. Yeah, I think they are really alarmed from what I've been [13:35] getting from, you know, well-placed Emirati sources is they are definitely very alarmed by the way things [13:41] are going. Publicly, their senior diplomats have put announcements on social media using very robust [13:47] language saying that they, they, they're not going to, that this should not be happening and quite, [13:53] you know, pushing back against Iran. What the UAE has been doing is been doubling down on its [13:59] relationship with the US and with Israel. It is the closest Arab country in terms of friendship to [14:07] Israel. Naftali Bennett, a right-wing Israeli prime ministerial hopeful in the forthcoming elections. [14:15] He, in social media posts the other day, spoke of the UAE as Israel's strategic ally. Now Iran sees, [14:24] if the Iran accepts that UAE may well be a strategic ally of Israel, and that makes them in the eyes of, [14:30] I think, the, the Iranian regime even more of a target potentially. The, the attack the other day [14:38] was in Fujairah. And that's interesting too, because Fujairah is the little part, if you look at the map of the, [14:45] the coastline of the UAE that isn't on the Gulf, it's the other side of the Strait of Hormuz facing down into [14:53] the Gulf of Oman. So there's an oil pipeline that comes there. There's big oil storage facilities, [14:58] seeing pictures of that fire at the moment. The big oil storage facilities, and they have actually [15:04] been getting part of their usual oil exports out through that port. And so, you know, this is a [15:10] message coming from the Iranians that if the war does start again big time, then they'll be hitting [15:16] those sites which will hurt, not least the UAE. So, Jeremy, what's your assessment? It feels like [15:23] the opportunities for any kind of diplomacy are unravelling right now. Well, if both sides stick [15:29] to where they are, to their positions, they're not going to make a deal. Iran has said it doesn't want [15:35] just a sort of temporary ad hoc ceasefire because previously that's resulted in Israel and America [15:43] attacking them again. The Americans, I think Trump would like to get some kind of a deal which he can [15:50] wave around and call a victory, especially with these elections coming in the, in the autumn. [15:55] In November, I believe, in the United States. But I think that's unlikely. So I think the most [16:01] likely outcome is this continuing risky situation of a ragged looking, increasingly ragged looking [16:09] ceasefire. And it will continue to get ragged as both countries try and put pressure on each other [16:16] to try to gain some advantage over the other. And this is the territory where misperceptions and [16:24] miscalculations occur. So that could mean that at any time, any given time, they're one serious [16:31] incident away from a resumption of all out war. It is that unstable. On that note, dangerous territory. [16:38] Jeremy, thank you so much. Our international editor, Jeremy Bowen. Thank you. What a note to [16:43] end this sequence. But so whether you're joining us on YouTube, TikTok, sounds radio, [16:48] or even television. Thank you for your time. We're going to be back at the same time tomorrow [16:53] with the Iran war today.