US President Trump announces Israel and Lebanon ceasefire — Global News Podcast

[0:00] Welcome to the Global News Podcast from the BBC. I'm Charlotte Gallagher and today we're [0:06] joined by Sebastian Usher. And Sebastian, we've just had some news coming out of Israel and [0:11] Lebanon. What's happening? Well, we have. I mean, actually, it's come as so much news does [0:16] from President Trump, from wherever he is doing this. On Truth Social, he's made an announcement. [0:22] Now, it was kind of expected, perhaps, that a ceasefire of some kind would be announced. [0:27] But we were not sure in what form it would take. So President Trump has essentially said [0:33] that there will be a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. And he's also inviting the [0:40] leaders of both countries, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Lebanese [0:45] President Joseph Aoun to the White House at some point. Now, what's missing from that message is [0:51] who the war is actually between. The war is not between Israel and Lebanon. Lebanon, although it [0:56] is in a state of war, remains in a state of war with Israel. There's never been a peace agreement [1:01] between the two. There's been no active war between the Lebanese army and the Israeli army [1:05] for many, many years. Occasionally, some Lebanese soldiers, as we've seen in this latest outbreak, [1:10] get caught up in the conflict where they're not actively involved in it. The war is between Israel [1:15] and Hezbollah, the powerful Iranian-backed political and military force which dominates Lebanon, [1:22] has dominated Lebanon for decades. Now, by not mentioning Hezbollah in it, [1:29] what is the implication of that? Does it mean that this isn't really a ceasefire? [1:32] Does it mean that President Trump is just wishing on a star that is going to be a ceasefire? [1:37] Or has Hezbollah actually been brought into this process and its leadership discussed this [1:44] with Washington and they will go along with it? I also think that Israel may have been taken on the [1:50] hop with this as well. That's just an indication that, again, they were circling each other, [1:56] the Israelis, the Lebanese, Hezbollah. But this seems to be, again, as is President Trump's want, [2:02] you know, a wish to push them into doing this now, when perhaps none of them were really quite ready [2:09] for it. All of them were kind of like deciding whether they want to be the first to say they'd go [2:14] ahead with it or not. Have we heard anything from Hezbollah? [2:17] There has been so far. I'm sure there'll be plenty more. But from one of the top MPs in the [2:26] Lebanese parliament, Hassan Fadlala, has said that they did know about it. They had been briefed about [2:31] it by the Iranian ambassador in Lebanon. So they were aware that this might be about to be announced. [2:38] And essentially what you would expect from Hezbollah that, yes, they might abide by it as long as Israel [2:46] 100% does. And that means ending all hostilities. Now, on the Israeli side, we have to wait and see. [2:55] And Israeli, this is very early. And we're talking, you know, some hours ahead of the ceasefire, [2:59] actually, if it does go ahead, taking place. So I'm sure there'll be a lot more. But there is an Israeli [3:04] security official who has been quoted as saying, I think, as you would expect that during the ceasefire, [3:10] which would be 10 days, Israel is not planning to pull out of the south of Lebanon. Now, whether that [3:16] meets Hezbollah's conditions for agreeing the ceasefire, obviously, is a big question. [3:22] I detect a note of scepticism from you about this. [3:25] I mean, it's not scepticism about the concept of the ceasefire. I think the ceasefire is happening [3:34] because President Trump, his eyes are on the deal with Iran. And this is getting in the way of that. [3:40] So he lent heavily on the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a few days ago. If you remember, [3:45] if people watching this remember, after President Trump announced the ceasefire with Iran, [3:52] just a few hours later, Israel launched its biggest attack on Lebanon since this new round [3:58] of conflict with Hezbollah erupted right at the start of March. A hundred strikes on what they said, [4:05] what the Israeli military said were Hezbollah targets within 10 minutes. And they hit places [4:10] that had not been hit before. They hit neighbourhoods in Beirut, which had not been expecting that there [4:16] would be strikes there. Do you remember the hotel that was hit? Hotels? I mean, for me personally, [4:22] Ayna Mreisi is a neighbourhood that I know very well. I taught at American University of Beirut. My [4:27] wife grew up in Ayna Mreisi. This is a residential neighbourhood, which is just above downtown. [4:33] It hasn't been a place where you expected this to happen. So people in Lebanon were extremely shocked [4:39] by that. And the Iranians reacted by saying, you know, this is going to destroy the ceasefire before [4:45] it's even started between the US and Iran. Something has to be done. So it's clear that the US, [4:51] that Washington, almost certainly President Trump personally lent on the Israeli Prime Minister [4:55] Benjamin Netanyahu and said, you've got to calm the situation down. So Israel has continued to carry [5:01] out big strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, but in the south, not on those cities, not on those [5:07] residential areas. So it has curbed those attacks to some extent, to give some space for the Iranian [5:13] initiative to continue. So how likely do you think it is that this ceasefire will be observed [5:19] from both sides? I mean, I think it's quite possible that it will be. I mean, Hezbollah, [5:26] not to defend Hezbollah in any particular way, but Hezbollah in general, doesn't necessarily fire rockets. [5:33] I mean, for example, after 2024, when Israel carried out a month long offensive against Hezbollah, [5:39] decapitated it, it killed the man who was Hezbollah, essentially, Hassan Nasrallah. I mean, [5:45] the man who'd represented this charismatic figure, no one like him has come to replace him [5:51] in Hezbollah. Hezbollah was severely weakened after that. There'd been a ceasefire since then. So from [5:56] pretty much the end of November 2024, until the start of March this year, Hezbollah hadn't fired missiles [6:03] into Israel. So it had sort of kept to the ceasefire. Israel, according to its lights, had observed the [6:10] ceasefire, but it continued to strike what it saw as hostile Hezbollah targets on an almost daily basis. [6:16] So from Hezbollah's perspective, they were breaching the ceasefire. From Israel's perspective, [6:20] Hezbollah was breaching the ceasefire because it didn't disarm fully. And that was meant to happen. [6:25] And the gripe that the Israelis were holding against the Lebanese government, but disingenuously, [6:32] I think you have to say, was the Lebanese government should have moved in. The Lebanese [6:35] army should have moved in and should have taken the weapons from Hezbollah. That's not something [6:40] the Lebanese government, the Lebanese army can do. No. [6:43] They risk, well, one, they're not powerful enough to do it. And two, they risk an all out civil war [6:49] again. They lived that 1975 to 1990. That's been the fear constantly. That's been one of the main [6:57] reasons why Hezbollah has managed to stay as it is. I've spoken to, you know, people who run Lebanon [7:04] over the past, who have, when you ask them, you know, why haven't you disarmed Hezbollah, [7:08] they find a way around it. You know, they're our resistance movement, they're needed as long as [7:13] Israel still has a little bit of Lebanon, etc. So that's not really a real thing. But the Israelis, [7:21] Netanyahu, his defense minister, Israel Katz, all said, we're going into Lebanon, [7:26] because Vladimir's government didn't do its job. And you just sensed with Benjamin Netanyahu that [7:30] he felt that this was a once in a generation opportunity to sort of deal with Hezbollah, [7:35] that he had the backing of Trump. Everything is a once in a generation opportunity with [7:40] Mr Netanyahu. He's always talking about it. I mean, he's talked about a once in a generation thing [7:45] about Hezbollah, about Iran, you know, many times before. Yes, in his perspective, President Trump [7:53] has been the most proactive US president who has actually done the things that Netanyahu has wanted. [8:00] I mean, many presidents before have been obviously very pro-Israel, with regard to the Palestinians, [8:06] certainly, but not as active as President Trump has been. So Mr Netanyahu clearly has seen the [8:12] opportunity through that to finish, you know, unfinished business. The problem with Hezbollah is that [8:20] Israel has fought a number of wars with them. And they've always been fought to a standstill. [8:24] And from that, Hezbollah has seen that as a victory, just like the Iranians are trying to sell, [8:29] you know, if there's a ceasefire or a permanent end to the war of the US. Now that's a victory, [8:33] because they've survived. That is how Hezbollah has essentially sold these conflicts before. [8:38] So he's had to tell the Israeli people, who remember, these are mostly reservist families, [8:44] they've been fighting in Gaza, in the West Bank, flying over Iran for, you know, [8:52] how long now since October 7, 2023, so two and a half years, and then being sent into Lebanon for [9:00] a new front of the war. The Israeli public are getting tired of it. So he had to sell this new [9:06] Lebanon war, as this is the one, as you say, once in a generation opportunity, we will completely [9:12] destroy Hezbollah, they will have no offensive capability anymore. That's almost impossible [9:17] to achieve. Sebastian, thank you so much. That was Sebastian Usher. And this has been [9:23] the Global News Podcast. And if you would like to hear more, click on the link below. [9:27] Thanks for watching.