US Navy escort plan: Breakthrough or risk of war?

[0:00] Harlan Ullman is a former senior naval officer. [0:02] He is also a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council and the chairman of the Kilowand Group, [0:06] a strategic advisory forum, and joins us now live from Washington, D.C. [0:10] It's good to see you again, Harlan. Thank you for being with us. [0:13] So this idea of the U.S. Navy helping ships through the Strait of Hormuz has been floated for weeks, [0:19] almost since this conflict began. [0:21] The military response has always been that it's being looked into, but it is complex. [0:26] So why is the administration taking this action now? [0:32] That is a very good question, and I cannot answer that. [0:35] If this is the prelude to negotiations and Iran is going to be passive in allowing ships to be [0:42] able to transit the Gulf, this is a great first step. [0:47] But, and there's a big but, is the Strait mind, is this going to cause all sorts of potential damage? [0:58] Will the Iranians allow U.S. warships to do this? [1:01] I hope that they will. [1:03] I hope this is a breakthrough. [1:05] Because, look, if you think six months forward, and we've denied the world 20 percent of its energy [1:13] exports, huge amounts of its phosphorus that's essential for fertilizer, [1:19] we could have an economic global catastrophe. [1:22] So, if, and it's a big if, that this is a first step in allowing the opening of the Straits, I absolutely agree. [1:33] But we will see what happens. [1:35] I hope Iran does not take any actions to try to prevent it. [1:39] I hope there are no mines that are going to impede the progress. [1:42] But if this works well, and as I said, a big if, this could be a first step in resolving this particular crisis, [1:50] which is in everybody's interest, the United States, Iran, the Gulf countries, and the world at large. [1:56] Because without access to all the elements that the Gulf has in terms of energy and phosphorus, phosphates, we are at great risk. [2:07] Right. And, I mean, you mentioned mines specifically, but what are the other dangers and difficulties that CENTCOM will face trying to do this mission? [2:18] Iran may say we don't want U.S. warships doing this. [2:21] They have huge amounts of drones and small craft that could make this very, very difficult. [2:28] I would hate to see a confrontation when an American warship is hit, [2:32] because then the Americans will have no other option except to retaliate. [2:36] So, I hope there's been some discussion. [2:39] Perhaps the Pakistanis or the Omanis or the Saudis have been instrumental in some kind of a pre-negotiation to let this happen. [2:47] But the only solution, let me say this again, the only solution to the crisis is a reopening of the Straits [2:55] and then a long diplomatic negotiation with Iran to deal with its nuclear ambitions. [3:03] This is the first step. [3:04] Well done to the Trump administration, but if it's only been half thought out and can lead to escalation, it could be a disaster. [3:14] Harlan, what could something like this conceivably look like? [3:19] Well, all it looks like is ships transiting the straight-up for a move. [3:23] I mean, I'm sort of imagining, you know, do they encircle the tanker and move it through in sort of a protective manner? [3:29] I mean, in that sort of situation, what does it look like? [3:33] Well, you have a series of tankers going through, and you've got escorts standing off the tankers, [3:39] escorting them with a lot of air power and other support. [3:43] The question is whether the Iranians allow this to happen without any kind of interference. [3:47] If they do, this is a great first step because the global economy needs access to the Gulf. [3:56] And if we don't get that, I have used AI to forecast what could happen in six months if the Gulf remains shut. [4:03] It's an economic catastrophe. [4:05] We'll lose four or five or six trillion dollars in trade. [4:09] Countries will have real difficulty in growing crops. [4:13] Gasoline will grow to seven or eight dollars a gallon in the United States. [4:18] There'll be chaos. [4:19] So I hope this is a first step in negotiation. [4:24] I hope the administration has been clever enough, but we will see what happens. [4:28] And if Iran does not oppose the transit, then we know we're on the way possibly, possibly to a first step to resolve some of the critical issues here. [4:40] I mean, that would be, as you say, good news, especially for some of the people and ships that have been trapped in the Gulf for over 60 days now. [4:48] I wonder, in your estimation, how would you decide in this situation which ships get to go first? [4:56] Well, that's a very good question. [4:59] But I would say let's have the ships that have been there longest go first. [5:04] The United States may say there are some ships that need to go have higher priorities to China or India and especially Pakistan, who has been an intermediary here. [5:15] But normally we get 120 ships a day going through the Gulf. [5:18] We want to maximize that issue. [5:21] The question is, what does Iran do? [5:24] And if Iran allows this to happen passively without any kind of contradiction or interdiction, then we're on the way to get some kind of a negotiation. [5:35] If only the Trump administration understands that negotiation, not bombardment, is the only way this will be solved. [5:43] To some degree, that will not disrupt the international economic order. [5:49] So once again, we wait to see Harlan Ullman, former senior naval officer, senior advisor at the Atlantic Council and chairman of the Killian Group. [5:56] Thanks for being with us on Al Jazeera. [5:57] Thank you.