US, Israel and Iran agree a ceasefire, but will it last? — BBC Newscast

[0:00] Hello it's Adam in the newscast studio. Hello it's Katrina in the Washington studio. [0:04] And rejoining us on newscast from the BBC Persian service is our colleague Parham Gabbadi. Hello [0:09] Parham. Hi thanks. So much to discuss but actually Katrina I don't know if you know about Parham's [0:13] side hustle. No. Explain to newscasts what you do in your quote free time. I study I do a degree in [0:22] war studies my master's at King's College London. Well first of all how do you find the time [0:27] especially when you're covering the news 24 7? It's difficult it's not easy like the first [0:32] semester for three days a week I was going to university and four days a week I was at work [0:36] so no free time but this semester it was a bit easier so I had one day off. And what's it like [0:43] covering a war in real time in your day job and then thinking about war from a kind of academic [0:48] perspective in your in your degree? It's actually quite amazing because it's more in depth you know [0:53] news is like really fast pace usually especially if there's breaking news however universities like [0:59] more in depth more reading I think as a journalist you need that kind of input as well you know [1:05] sometimes to take off and to just delve more into a topic to get more insight. [1:10] Well students of the future Katrina will be trying to work out what changed between [1:15] Tuesday night when Donald Trump was on truth social saying that potentially a civilization was going to [1:21] come to an end overnight and then when we all woke up in the UK to the news that actually there was [1:26] going to be a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. Is there a theory about just what happened [1:32] in that period? Not a theory that we could stand over at this point in time. I mean I think in reality [1:42] was that there were some frantic back channeling negotiations going on there's some reporting here in [1:48] the US that it was actually the White House putting pressure on Pakistan to come up with this offer [1:55] of a ceasefire that kind of came out I mean it was mid-afternoon here in the east coast I guess kind [2:01] of coming up to bedtime there in the UK when this offer of a two-week ceasefire was put on the table [2:06] we were told Donald Trump was looking at it and then all of a sudden around about 6.30 pm east coast time [2:12] here 11.30 there in the UK and I guess middle of the night in Iran the news that the president had [2:18] said he was accepting it followed by the news that Iran had said they were accepting it a little bit of [2:25] sort of grey area as to where Israel stands on all of this it's been a lot of back and forward on that [2:30] and a lot of striking continuing in Lebanon and suddenly a total change in tone from President Trump no [2:38] f-bombs no threatening to that a whole civilization would die overnight and suddenly we're back to [2:44] you know I am the president of peace and I've done this great deal and I've won and declared victory [2:50] which was kind of the tone then that we heard this morning from Secretary Pete Hegseth as well the [2:56] defence secretary or war secretary you know again kind of lauding President Trump's efforts here and how [3:03] this was all over I mean it's not all over clearly it's a two-week ceasefire with talk still to follow [3:08] and the parties would appear to be still really quite far apart and just in process terms Katrina [3:14] the next big thing we're expecting looks like actual negotiations in person in Islamabad in Pakistan on [3:21] Friday yeah that's what is set as of now there has been some suggestion perhaps the vice president [3:29] JD Vance himself may go there he's in Hungary at the moment obviously he was there with Victor Orban [3:35] he's been doing a few speeches his diary is clear for the rest of the day so we've made a few inquiries [3:42] we've kind of been told to watch this space so that would obviously be a huge development if JD Vance himself [3:48] was to go there President Trump not kind of ruling out that perhaps he may be involved at some point in [3:54] the future but you know we've been there before with those sorts of suggestions when you think back [3:59] to the Russia Ukraine talks and suggestions that people would meet in person and then it doesn't [4:04] come to pass but I think even the concept of having talks and somebody being there and somebody meeting [4:10] in Islamabad is a better place than we were in this time yesterday so Parham in the last 12 18 24 hours [4:18] there would be no no Iranian drones going to the Gulf states no American warplanes dropping ordinance [4:26] from the air over Iran that's as far as we know is all stopped no it hasn't actually right so what [4:32] happened was that today after the ceasefire what we heard was that two Iranian islands were targeted [4:37] and Iranian oil ministry confirmed that that they were targeted there were some oil facilities there that [4:43] were hit and at the same time Emiratis and Bahrainis said that they had to fight off Iranian drones [4:51] and intercept them and there's a pipeline east-west pipeline in Saudi Arabia that was trying to be struck [5:00] as well the Iranians were trying to strike it so it appears that it was a retaliation for the striking [5:07] Iranian oil facilities but these things sometimes happen when there is a ceasefire it's not [5:13] immediately implemented yeah I always think of what Jeremy Bowen said on newscast probably a few [5:18] years ago now about ceasefires that the implementation at the start can be quite ragged [5:22] it's not just the clock hits a certain point and everything stops a lot of the focus on on how this [5:28] ceasefire will be implemented elsewhere is about the Strait of Hormuz and it now seems to me there's [5:33] quite a big linguistic argument going on about what the word open means and different people have [5:40] different interpretations of what open is I mean I suppose the Iranian interpretation is the one that [5:46] will hold because they're the ones that control that waterway exactly so Iranians are saying that [5:50] one of the most significant developments in this war is that Iranians right now want to impose tolls on [5:57] the ships that go through it appears that Iranian have managed to take hold of this Strait of Hormuz and [6:04] it has worked as a great leverage against the United States and the world it has worked so far and the [6:11] objective of the war has changed over time as well so from the beginning of the war let's not forget [6:17] that Donald Trump said that help is underway and they are going to free Iranian people however after the [6:23] war broke out after a few weeks the objective totally changed into opening up the Strait of Hormuz and [6:30] before the ceasefire Donald Trump was furious and one of his conditions was that they have to open this [6:36] Strait of Hormuz so but let's not forget that this place was open before the war it was not an issue [6:43] and Iran so Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA joint comprehensive plan of action that is known as [6:53] Iranian nuclear deal signed with Obama to have a better deal that deal did not happen [7:00] Iran started enriching uranium to 60% purity and then the war broke out and none of this has been [7:08] none of these issues have been solved and still the 400 kilogram of 60% uranium are in Iran and Donald [7:14] Trump is saying we're going to watch them from above from space yeah well we'll talk about the the [7:18] enriched uranium in a second but Katrina that thing about the Strait of Hormuz you would think from [7:23] listening to Donald Trump that traffic will be resuming and on its way to being at levels that it was [7:29] before the war but actually just before we started recording this episode of newscast there was a [7:34] message from the Iranians saying no it's still closed and at best only ships that have permission [7:38] from Iran were able to get through yeah exactly so this is where the sort of gulf if you excuse a pun [7:45] opens up between what's you know agreed or understood to be agreed as part of this ceasefire and what's [7:51] actually been agreed and you referenced Jeremy's quote there about you know ceasefires being ragged this is [7:57] the raggedy raggedy part of it what's in what's out how does that actually work out in practice and [8:04] you know it's not just a matter of oh okay every ship can sail up the strait now and Iran for its part [8:11] I mean this is has turned out to be its kind of golden jewel in its crown having control over the [8:18] Strait of Hormuz it's not something that it's going to give up very easily particularly when we're already [8:24] hearing from president trump that you know perhaps some of the things in this plan proposal that's [8:30] been floated around are not things that the us is ultimately going to sign up to so you know we're [8:36] only a few hours into this there's a great deal of nervousness and hesitancy and a great deal I [8:41] suppose a great lack of trust between the parties as well and Keir Starmer the British prime minister [8:47] has just landed in Saudi Arabia before we started recording this episode visiting a few gulf countries [8:52] we think and he says that actually there'll still be quite a lot of work to do to make sure the [8:58] Strait of Hormuz is is open in the way it was before and also it sounds Katrina like he thinks [9:03] there's still going to be quite a lot of work to get the ceasefire from being temporary to being [9:07] permanent and I suppose that's back to where we started off our conversation there's a huge amount [9:12] of work still to be done and not least over the issue of Lebanon you know Pakistan seems to be saying [9:19] that Lebanon is included in this deal Israel is saying it isn't President Trump has been speaking [9:24] to a PBS news hour reporter today and said that Lebanon is not part of the deal because Hezbollah [9:30] is not part of the deal he said they'll get taken care of too whatever that means but of course one [9:37] of the original stated objectives that President Trump has given for beginning this whole thing with Iran [9:43] was about shutting down the proxies and the funding to the proxies of which Hezbollah is on that list [9:49] so it seems even there's great confusion about what is or isn't involved here and you know is Iran going [9:56] to hold on to this deal if the Israel Hezbollah conflict is still raging extremely hotly I mean since [10:03] we started taping this podcast that the Lebanese civil defence is now saying the death toll stands at 254 [10:12] people since that ceasefire nominally at least came into place a death toll of 254 people in Lebanon [10:20] and I should just say that Lise Doucette is going to pop up in the studio at any point so if you hear [10:24] some rustling that will be Lise creeping in and getting ready to tell us her take and Parham just [10:30] when it comes to what's actually on the table now it seems that there is a 15-point plan for the Americans [10:37] a 10-point plan from the Iranians that Donald Trump has referred to as being a basis for [10:42] negotiation but also I'm just seeing the White House is denying that the 10-point plan that's [10:47] being circulated in the media today isn't the 10-point plan that they've received from the Iranians [10:52] that's correct so the two sides have got two different narratives of and at the same time [10:57] both sides are claiming victory so Donald Trump is saying that that was an absolute victory we achieved [11:02] more than what we intended at the beginning Iranians are saying the same but what happens is that sometimes [11:07] the war have got unintended consequences and at first both Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump said [11:14] that one of the aims of this war is regime change that did not materialize not only that one of the [11:20] unintended consequences was the blockade of a Strait of Hormuz and from now on it seems that Iran has [11:27] gained this you know strategic success that it is going to be an undeniable party to the traffic of this [11:35] Hormuz and this might be you know something new to non-Iranians however for many for Iranians they [11:40] all knew it because Iranian heartliners have been asking and asking for this to block the Strait of [11:46] Hormuz for decades for decades now it's always been an option it all it has always been an option and [11:52] that and now they have after Khamenei has been killed it appears that the revolutionary guards have [11:58] the upper hand in Iran just going to do some traffic directing because Lisa's here she's going to sit [12:02] down please move that move that microphone wait until you find out what else Barham does in his [12:10] spare time he's doing he's doing a degree in war studies in his spare time we were just hearing [12:16] but you've got you've got a PhD in war studies anyway well I was going to say that's like [12:21] we need to pull it back but let me let me enter this conversation yeah it's like entering the Strait of [12:26] Hormuz no tolls I'm going to dangerous is we've just had a factual account of what has happened or [12:34] not happened in Iran except President Trump's version is completely different so as Barham said [12:40] there has been no regime change not only does it remain in place with new leaders but they're even more [12:45] hard line what do we hear from President Trump every hour for many days we've had productive regime [12:52] change is how he's described it and the new leaders are much more reasonable Parham has said the Strait [12:58] of Hormuz is still under Iran's control President Trump has been saying that the Strait has been opened [13:05] and he's in one of his many interviews with journalists who are now calling him up he's I don't [13:10] know where where he finds time to do anything else every day he's picking up the phone and talking [13:15] uh to journalists and he said he floated the idea that he could have joint control of the Strait [13:21] of Hormuz with with Iran so it could be a joint money raising scheme so he's gone from demanding [13:27] Iran and demanding in capital letters with exclamation marks that Iran should open the Strait now or else to [13:34] saying well we could we could both we could both control the the tolls and as he put it in one of his [13:40] true sociables we'll be hanging around helping the tankers go through it's very very hard to square [13:47] the statements that he makes from one day to the next and sometimes from one hour to the next um but [13:52] Lise um you you said that the new regime in Iran or the continuation of the old regime in new form [13:58] is is increasingly hard line or more hard line than his predecessors but they have negotiated a ceasefire and [14:05] agreed to a ceasefire so they've sort of laid down their drones that doesn't that's not hard line is [14:10] it it is very interesting because this even though it's it's often the case that when wars end when [14:18] wars end during the war and when it ends you have to try to shape the narrative and each side will say [14:23] that they've won uh that's for their supporters and and for their enemies and so Iran is saying this as [14:29] of is claiming this as a victory and it believes it has it's succeeded in many ways it's still surviving [14:34] and it's still controlling uh this the Strait of Hormuz but it had been saying it wouldn't accept [14:41] a ceasefire so I don't know what you make of that problem so it seems to have accepted this but only on [14:48] there must some reassurances must have been given to them that this would lead to a permanent end to [14:55] the war and we understand that it wasn't just Pakistan's top general the field marshal Assamunir [15:01] who was on the phone sending messages and that's difficult right now given the communications [15:05] difficulties with Iran but President Trump himself confirmed that China also got Iran which I think [15:10] was also very important to Iran they need they don't trust President Trump at all they don't trust [15:17] his envoys and with reason the last two rounds of negotiation were shattered by US-backed Israeli strikes [15:24] obviously Katrina there's triumphalism coming from the the defense department known as the war department [15:30] by itself and there's triumphalism coming from from President Trump is there any sense of what's the mood [15:35] in the rest of America and the rest of the system I think in general the rest of America it's a sweeping [15:42] generalization but is uh slightly relieved uh that the tone and the the temper has gone down from [15:49] yesterday I would say you know um over the last few days a lot of colleagues went home [15:54] for Easter break and Passover and so on and reporting back from their families and friends [15:59] in other parts of the country people aren't engaged really in uh what's going on in the minutiae detail [16:04] like we are they're more concerned about the rising price of fuel and all the other cost of living [16:10] things that we've talked about here but on a political front there's you know continued outrage [16:15] from the Democrats about the manner in all of how this has been conducted uh still those calls for [16:23] you know removal of the president that we saw yesterday in the wake of those tweets Bernie Sanders [16:29] the senator is saying he's bringing a bill next week to uh stop US military aid to Israel entirely [16:38] um so there will be some support for that as well because we are seeing with this sort of break in [16:45] position between the US and Israel over the last few weeks we are seeing a rising level in the polls [16:52] here of people not wanting to support Israel in the way the US traditionally has questioning more [16:59] and more why the US gives such unwavering support to Israel and no doubt that we'll see that continue to [17:06] rise as well interestingly Lindsey Graham Republican senator and a very close ally of President Trump [17:13] and very very hawkish when it comes to what's been going on in Iran he's been talking this morning and [17:18] sort of reserving judgment on this deal and again you know as you guys have been discussing there we [17:24] don't really know what's in this deal there seem to be varying accounts of what is or isn't potentially [17:29] on the table but he has said that there are some troubling aspects to it and he wants the [17:35] president to come forward to congress and explain just what he's thinking about doing here and this [17:42] is all going to come to a head in the next couple of weeks when the president comes looking for more [17:47] funding for this war and you know speaking to some republicans over the last day or two they're [17:52] really now starting to question just how much money the US should be spending on this [17:58] and also there's a big piece in the New York Times where their superstar reporters have managed to [18:02] basically get a readout of the administration's conversations in this in the situation room when [18:07] they were deciding whether to press the button or not yeah this is extraordinary an article from [18:13] Maggie Haberman in the New York Times and it's a better it's from a book basically that's coming [18:17] out later in the summer she and her colleague have put together on and there's a piece in the New York [18:22] Times I'd urge people to read it it's quite long so set aside a bit of your evening to do that [18:28] but she basically starts the piece on the 11th of February when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [18:33] was at the White House I was at the White House that day and I do remember remarking how odd it [18:38] was that Prime Minister Netanyahu didn't come in with the usual bells and whistles up the driveway [18:43] no photo ops no press conferences and so on came in a side door very serious meeting was held [18:49] as Maggie Haberman's reporting with a small group of people very senior to the president notably the [18:55] vice president not there he was in Azerbaijan that day and apparently this is when Prime Minister [19:01] Netanyahu laid out the plans that he had to strike Iran and basically persuading or attempting to [19:09] persuade President Trump to join in with him and then Maggie Haberman sets out what happened between [19:15] there right up until the 28th of February and the different levels of advice that the president was being [19:22] given or not given as the case may be I mean it was quite notable to me that a lot of people seemed [19:27] to be not giving an opinion on what the president should do but just sort of saying well it's up to [19:34] you sir and and you should do this if you decide you should I'll support you she says JD Vance said I [19:40] don't think it's a good idea but I'll support you if you do go ahead and that is in line with what [19:46] we've been hearing from the vice president in public on this as well but it just speaks to that close [19:51] tie not so much between the US and Israel but between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump [19:56] but those two men directly themselves at least to bring it right up to date now we were we were noted [20:02] to this earlier on in this episode but is there a potential for this ceasefire to fall apart because [20:08] of what's happening between Israel and Lebanon and Hezbollah it's interesting this war we have we don't have to [20:15] remind ourselves this is either you see it as a separate war it's a continuation of the Gaza war [20:20] of 2023 and there have been moments like this before and in fact you can even go back to what's [20:25] happened in recent Iranian history do you remember the 12-day war where President Trump announced a [20:31] ceasefire and Israel still wanted to keep attacking and then there was a post on social media where [20:36] President Trump basically said send those bombers back don't attack the war is over and the the [20:43] Israelis complied and similarly when the very still very shaky ceasefire in the Gaza Strip came into [20:49] force when Israel kept Israel assassinated a mass leader President Trump put him on notice and said I [20:55] don't want you to keep doing this so today I was thinking well when we heard the Pakistani Prime Minister [21:01] Shabazzar Sharif saying if there's a ceasefire on all fronts including Lebanon Prime Minister Netanyahu said no [21:08] Lebanon's not included Iran expressed concern and then I thought what is President Trump going to say he's the [21:14] only one if he really wants to keep this deal if he wants it to stick he's going to have to reign in Israel and he [21:21] didn't he said Lebanon is not included um and Lisa I'm going to give you an exam question this is more [21:27] like the reference to Parham's degree here um and it's I only have a BA in Warsaw he's got a PhD and it's [21:35] and it's it's the question about about winners and losers here because there's a lot of discourse about [21:42] who who's won and who's lost or whether everyone's a loser and so I'm gonna give you some time to think [21:46] about that exam question while Parham asked my question about um have you got any sense about [21:52] how Iranians themselves in Iran are reacting to these extraordinary events whether it's that amazing [21:59] amazing threats from Donald Trump 26 hours ago or whether it looks like the war is over at least for [22:05] a bit uh you know there's an internet blackout but I managed to talk only to two people since last night [22:12] one of them has access to Starlink she sent me a photo of her and she had this a rash on her skin [22:19] out of stress she was saying because they were thinking that Donald Trump is going to drop nuclear [22:24] bomb on Iran after saying that the entire civilization is going to die tonight so she was saying that I [22:29] cannot tell you how stressed we are whoever I talk to we can't eat we can't sleep this these are really [22:36] you know uh extremely difficult moments for us so after the ceasefire was announced she was [22:41] relieved she was against the war from the very beginning how but she's against the regime as [22:46] well however there was another person that I received her audio message today and she was crying [22:51] her heart out she was saying that we endured this war hoping that the regime would fall that we are [22:58] going to see the overthrow of this regime however they have remained and they're going to be more [23:04] emboldened and more confident because they are going to say that listen we managed to kill thousands of [23:09] our own citizens we managed to you know survive a war with the most powerful military in the world [23:16] and the most advanced military in the middle east and we are still in place not only that we have the [23:21] control of the Strait of Hormuz nobody can remove this regime from now on so she was totally devastated [23:28] so there are different moods in the country some people are relieved because there are no more bombings [23:35] businesses usually can go back to work because you know it's really difficult to make money in Iran [23:40] right now especially with this inflation however others are totally devastated because they think [23:45] that they have to deal with this regime again and is there a possibility that in two weeks two months [23:50] two years there's still an Iranian nuclear program uh i don't see any sign they're still even in this uh [23:57] in in this uh that the bullet points that they've sent that their request uh nuclear enrichment is [24:03] there they said that they want to have nuclear enrichment there is no sign or at least i don't [24:07] see any sign that they are going to give up on their nuclear enrichment program lisa your exam [24:12] question lots of people saying oh iran has won america has lost what's your take on winners losers [24:19] i'll answer it in in two parts one and i'm sure i've said it on this program when wars unfold [24:24] if you have a phd in war studies you know this when wars when wars unfold they unfold on two levels [24:30] it's what happens on the ground the physical concrete manifestations of who won who lost and [24:36] then there is the narrative uh the perceptions of what happened on the ground which also which also [24:42] unfold and it's been my observation in in covering wars for a long time that is the perception of what [24:48] has happened often matters more in the in the course of this war than what really happened so when [24:54] the iranians say we won and they convince themselves and those around them they won it helps [24:59] to frame their narrative and the end to in the united states when they say as they have done [25:04] president trump has been saying since almost the beginning of this war we've won except we just need [25:08] to win a little bit more so what matters is what it doesn't matter what the reality on the ground is [25:14] yes iran has lost significant military capabilities yes many of their leaders were assassinated they feel [25:20] they won and in some ways they did win and in some ways the americans did win but the losers and [25:26] we've just heard are the people of iran i keep thinking when we were there in february people [25:31] were reeling from you know we talk about four percent inflation in the uk sixty percent inflation [25:37] and also the re collapse of the real currency looking for way of desperate for sanctions to be [25:43] lifted desperate for there to be an end to the mismanagement and corruption i keep thinking what [25:48] is it going to be like after the war there's no pro there's no sign yet that sanctions will be [25:53] lifted the negotiations have to succeed perhaps iran is now seeing the control of the strait of [25:58] hormuz as their lifeline if they can't get sanctions lifted then at least they can have money coming in [26:03] from this control but even that now of course is contested so the people of iran are suffering the [26:08] people of the reach of the region think of the migrant workers who work across the gulf states the [26:13] hospitality industry is gone dark hotel occupancies are down families millions of families are being [26:20] supported by those industries are they going to be sent home the civilians of israel the civilians of [26:26] lebanon this is a war where the people are are losing and the winners think they're winning a plus [26:33] for that answer lise um thank you very much oh also is there anything else you want to add to this this [26:38] situation because we didn't give you the whole podcast i think the big question now is this the [26:43] ceasefire is shaky and fragile even pete hexath who tends to speak in triumphal terms talked about [26:49] a zafar justice fire is always is what comes next and then i think we have to start looking at [26:55] the so-called peace talks which are supposed to be taking place in pakistan we have to say that [26:59] we're recording at ten five past six in the evening because things are changing by the hour [27:05] there are reports that jd vance the u.s vice president is not going to go to islamabad because [27:10] of security concerns president trump mentioned this in many of his interviews but as parm knows so [27:15] well the iranians do not want to to negotiate anymore with president trump's preferred envoy [27:21] steve whitkoff and with jared kushner they see it as a trojan horse both times they negotiated with them [27:26] it ended in war they see them as too pro-israeli whatever the reality they see them as too pro-israeli [27:32] and so they wanted a higher level and of course jd vance has been one of the skeptics about this war [27:37] if he's not going then who is going to go and if there's not going to be senior representation on [27:43] the american side then will the iranians really for them it's a huge concession to come the way [27:49] they see this for them to the heartliners have always held uh abbas that actually the foreign [27:54] minister back from direct talks even though they did meet to direct face to face but mostly they were [27:59] indirect so even now this the two this these negotiations talks that it's hard to call them [28:06] negotiations and i it's a bit with a heavy heart i keep thinking back to 2015 where all sides and it [28:14] was a multilateral negotiation with america and members of the security council then the eu the [28:19] iranians they both had their top negotiators their top nuclear experts their top experts who understand [28:27] each other they went it was for two and a half years and the last in the run-up to the deal they [28:32] went to vienna for what they thought would be six days they stayed no one moved for 22 days they [28:39] negotiated around the clock to get a deal that is what it's going to take and there's no sign at all [28:47] that that's what that the president trump understands that this is what it's going to take some really [28:54] good final thoughts lise thank you very much thank you param thank you very much thanks for having me and [28:58] good luck with your studies thank you and just after lise parham and katrina recorded that bit [29:11] of newscast we were watching a briefing at the white house given by caroline levitt who is the [29:15] president's press secretary and she confirmed that jd vance the vice president will lead the u.s [29:22] delegation in negotiations with iran which will take place in islamabad in pakistan as she explained on [29:28] saturday morning local time so friday night in the uk and that is you up to date at 6 40 on [29:36] wednesday evening with this episode of newscast we'll be back with another one very soon bye