US Iran tensions deepen as Trump strategy faces questions over diplomacy

[0:00] who's the founder and president of Off the Record Strategies [0:03] and a former deputy national security advisor [0:05] to President George W. Bush. [0:07] Joining us from Washington, D.C., Mark, great to have you with us. [0:11] So where do you assess we're at, [0:12] given Donald Trump's decision not to send a U.S. delegation to Pakistan? [0:17] Well, we've moved into a three-part triangle of pressure right now. [0:24] The United States pressuring Iran through a blockade [0:27] that is now going globally. [0:29] Iran pressuring the world's economy and its energy capabilities. [0:34] And then pressure from China. [0:38] They have leverage right now because of their dependence on Iranian oil [0:43] and because of Iran's dependence on the income from Chinese oil. [0:48] That's where we stand right now. [0:50] It comes down to does China want to use this leverage in some way [0:56] to move either for a better trade deal with the United States through Mr. Trump, [1:01] who we know is likely going to Beijing in the next month. [1:05] Do they want to protect their relationship with Iran for the long term? [1:10] And then it comes down to a couple of things. [1:12] The Strait of Hormuz. [1:13] Where are we right now as far as being able to move oil tankers through it? [1:19] And then where is this enriched uranium at this moment? [1:23] The 60 and the 40 percent enriched uranium in the country of Iran. [1:28] And as Mr. Trump says, if he wants Iran to never have a nuclear weapon, [1:32] how does he bring that to reality through these negotiations over the coming days? [1:37] The challenges you present seem pretty formidable. [1:41] Negotiations may not be dead in the water, maybe, but it's hard to see. [1:46] How are both sides are going to reach an acceptable resolution? [1:52] That's the challenge. [1:53] And then there's the sub-things of that, which is the proxies. [1:56] So can the Gulf states and the Middle East actually find a way to combat these? [2:01] Because it's likely in the negotiations, if it's all about the strait [2:05] and it's all about the nuclear weapons, [2:08] that's going to leave the proxies still on the table of something [2:10] that is going to have to be dealt with by the Middle East [2:13] and the Gulf state countries for the years ahead. [2:15] Can they actually organize a campaign [2:18] as they have taken this incoming missile and drone attacks from Iran? [2:23] It's likely that they're not going to become the bankers [2:26] or the facilitators for these types of activities. [2:28] And then it's a real look by the intelligence community [2:31] of the United States. [2:33] Where is the regime right now? [2:35] It's one thing to have rhetoric and propaganda. [2:38] It's another one to really figure out what the strain is [2:40] on the Iranian economy. [2:43] How difficult is it? [2:44] Yes, they are suffering from 50% inflation right now. [2:48] If it gets above 4% of the United States, [2:51] we are going into a difficult time. [2:56] So to have 10, 12 times that, [2:58] how much difficulty is that putting on [3:00] of millions of Iranians moving into poverty [3:04] over the next several weeks? [3:05] And does that actually bring the Iranians [3:07] to the negotiation table? [3:09] Or is the regime so desperate to hold on to power [3:12] that they'll do anything to keep this going for a bit longer? [3:16] You've had real experience of a U.S. presidential administration. [3:19] You worked in that of George W. Bush. [3:23] Do you think the Trump administration [3:25] is handling this diplomacy with Iran well? [3:30] Many think it's confused and somewhat scattergun. [3:33] So, you know, it's called strategic ambiguity by Mr. Trump, [3:39] and it's very much go-it-alone type of philosophy. [3:42] And I think that's been a difficulty. [3:44] It's the challenges that he's had working with his European partners [3:47] ever since his first term, [3:49] and especially his second term, [3:51] that made it very difficult. [3:53] And then you have a lot of the diplomacy [3:55] that could have and should have been done [3:57] in the last 15 months [3:59] when putting pressure onto Iran, [4:02] either diplomatically, [4:04] especially after the killing [4:06] of thousands of its citizens in January. [4:09] That should have been done. [4:10] And then now we're seeing [4:12] the Treasury Department [4:13] putting all these new sanctions on. [4:15] This could have been done [4:16] going back administrations, [4:18] but when Mr. Trump came into power, [4:20] putting that stranglehold in their economy [4:22] over the past year or more [4:23] could have dramatic effects right now [4:25] instead of deciding to go in [4:27] as he has just the last few months. [4:30] Mark, the U.S. administration frequently says [4:31] that Iran is on the verge of breaking [4:33] or is indeed broken, [4:35] but the reality has always appeared so different. [4:38] Why is there this gap [4:40] between the narrative and reality? [4:44] For 47 years, [4:45] Iran has operated with not using its vast wealth, [4:50] its vast possibilities [4:51] of its oil and natural gas reserves, [4:54] not on its own people, [4:55] but on proxy efforts, missiles, [4:58] nuclear weapons and other things. [5:00] So the economy is almost fortified to a point. [5:03] They're living on $4,000 or $5,000 per year [5:06] per capita income. [5:07] They should be having a much more robust economy than that. [5:11] So it's almost like the economy is used [5:13] to that type of capability. [5:15] Then you have the IRGC and the stranglehold [5:17] that it has over its foreign relations [5:19] and its strength that it projects abroad. [5:22] And then you have the besiege paramilitary police [5:26] that keep an eye on its people to keep them down. [5:29] Between those two very significant efforts [5:33] that the country has put its money [5:35] and its power into, [5:36] that take that down is extraordinarily difficult, [5:40] probably more difficult [5:41] than the United States planners anticipated. [5:44] Right. Very interesting. [5:46] Mark Fifley, appreciate that very much. [5:47] It's Mark Fifley, [5:48] former Deputy National Security Advisor [5:50] to President George W. Bush. [5:51] Thanks a lot.