US-Iran talks in Pakistan: Who’s attending, what’s on the agenda?

[0:00] All right, so let's take a closer look at who's likely to attend those talks in Islamabad. [0:03] This is what we've learned from officials in Pakistan. [0:07] Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shahbaz Sharif, will host the meetings, [0:10] and he'll be joined by Army Chief Asim Muneer, [0:15] widely seen as the country's most powerful security figure, [0:18] and the Foreign Minister, Ishak Dar. [0:20] The United States is expected to send Vice President J.D. Vance and Jared Kushner, [0:24] Donald Trump's son-in-law and a former presidential advisor, [0:27] also likely to attend our Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, [0:31] as well as General Brad Cooper, who oversees U.S. military operations in the region. [0:37] Iran's delegation will include the Parliamentary Speaker Mohamed Bakir Khalibaf [0:41] and Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi, who was involved in previous nuclear talks, [0:47] and they're likely to be joined by the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council [0:51] and the Deputy Foreign Minister. [0:53] So that's a lightly line-up. Let's discuss all of this with our guests. [0:57] So join us here in the studio, Sultan Abarakat, Professor of Public Policy [1:01] with Hamad bin Khalifa University. [1:04] Thanks for joining us, Sultan. [1:05] Also, Meshahid Hussain Saeed, who's a defence and foreign policy expert, [1:09] also a veteran Pakistani politician and journalist, joins us now from Istanbul. [1:13] Also, Hamid Reza Golemzada, who's the director of Diplohaus, a think tank in Tehran, [1:19] joins us from the Iranian capital, Tehran. [1:22] And Hamid Reza, I'd like to start with you. [1:25] We were looking at the line-up, the potential line-up of the negotiations, [1:29] and the Iranian delegation includes an old hand at the talks, Abbas Arachi, [1:34] also joined by the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. [1:39] Tell us how they shape up in terms of likely positioning in these negotiations. [1:47] Sure. First of all, let me share my condolences over the loss of your colleague in Gaza, [1:51] as the report just mentioned. [1:54] So, about the formation of the Iranian team, it is a combination of the politicians and, [2:02] somehow, we can say, good experience of military issues. [2:05] So, both Mr. Qalibach and Mr. Zul Qadr, the Speaker of the Parliament and then the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, [2:13] have a deep background in the IRGC and military, and they have been involved in the eight years of war that we had with Saddam years ago in the 1980s. [2:25] So, they have a good understanding of the military issues, and they have a good relation and connections with IRGC and with the armed forces. [2:36] And, of course, they are politicians as well. [2:39] And, we have, on the other side, we have the Mr. Al-Akchi and Qadr Al-Akchi, both of them very vast experience in negotiations, [2:48] and they have been involved in both in JCPOA during President Obama and in the two negotiations that we had with Trump administration, [2:58] which, of course, led to two attacks against Iran for both times. [3:02] So, having raised a great deal of expertise and experience there, Mujahid Hussain, you're a former politician and journalist, [3:08] and I know very well the intricacies of these kinds of negotiations. [3:12] In the Pakistani team, we have the Army Chief, Asim Muneer. [3:15] Trump, President Trump, likes him a lot, doesn't he? [3:18] So, what front will they present, and how could that ease the process of these talks? [3:25] Thank you very much. [3:26] It's a pleasure to be on your program at a very historic moment in our regions and world history. [3:31] Trump calls him his favorite field marshal, field marshal Asim Muneer, and the rapport is very strong, both at the personal level as well as the political level, [3:43] because he has that confidence that Pakistan's team, which includes the field marshal as well as our prime minister and the deputy prime minister, [3:52] they have an equally good rapport, not just with Washington, D.C., but also with the leadership in Iran, as well as the leadership in China. [4:00] So, we come as a force multiplier who are able to communicate concurrently with Washington, D.C., Tehran, and Beijing, and we enjoy their respective confidence. [4:12] Also, I think that Trump is impressed by Pakistan's military and political credentials because of what happened last May, 2025, [4:21] when there was this encounter with India, and Pakistan got the better of India militarily. [4:27] So, Trump is impressed by, you know, people in uniform, tough guys, winners, and people who can deliver. [4:35] So, he has that confidence that the Pakistani leadership has the capacity to deliver, [4:40] and we have delivered in bringing the two protagonists to the conference table, which was impossible seemingly a few days ago. [4:47] And, Sultan, so for the United States, the team there, it seems, will be led by the U.S. vice president, J.D. Vance, reportedly an opponent to the Iran war. [4:56] Is that a good thing for the potential success of these very, very difficult and delicate talks? [5:01] I think it's an important qualitative difference from the team before. [5:06] And, in fact, the Iranians themselves criticized Witkoff and Kushner because they've had that previous experience with them when the talks were called off and the attack happened. [5:18] So, J.D. Vance is in a unique position. [5:20] Publicly, he has supported Trump's strategy towards Iran, and I think he tried his best to present a unified front within the administration. [5:30] But we know from his private briefings and those close to him that he wasn't at all comfortable with the war. [5:37] He's not comfortable with the justification of it. [5:39] And he's very, very worried about the next elections, both in terms of his own possibilities to become a president, you know. [5:48] Unlike Trump, he stands a good chance, without having to change the Constitution, to be elected. [5:53] And he stands a good chance to give the Republicans a go at the next elections. [5:57] So, he's very concerned about this derailing, what he sees as the recovery of the Republicans, you know, that they've come into power, they've taken a good mileage. [6:09] So, from his perspective, I think this is extremely important. [6:12] He does, he has to, but he has to walk extremely carefully because he doesn't want to be seen as conflicting with his boss. [6:19] At the same time, he's paving the way, you know, beyond his boss, if that's the right expression. [6:25] All right. So, those are the sort of relative lineups. [6:28] So, the thing is, there's a whole lot of confusion about what they're actually going to negotiate and who's included, who's incorporated in the ceasefire. [6:34] So, let's have a look at what's being said. [6:36] This was a confirmation from the Pakistani Prime Minister, Shabazz Sharif, on Twitter on Tuesday. [6:42] He said, I'm pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon, importantly, and elsewhere, effective immediately. [6:58] Then we have the U.S. Vice President, J.D. Vance. [7:01] He said on Wednesday that Tehran's negotiators thought the U.S.-Iran ceasefire included Lebanon, but the U.S. had, in fact, not agreed to that. [7:08] I think the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn't. [7:16] We never made that promise. We never indicated that was going to be the case. [7:19] What we said is that the ceasefire would be focused on Iran and the ceasefire would be focused on America's allies, both Israel and the Gulf Arab states. [7:27] So, that's J.D. Vance. So, Mushahid there in Istanbul, it's a critical moment, isn't it, as the Iranian president has said. [7:34] What pressure will Pakistani negotiators be applying to hold Israel in check and so prevent any kind of Iranian retaliation and blow up the talks? [7:44] I think the one, let's be very clear on the facts. [7:49] When even Trump tweeted, he tweeted on the basis of the 10-point plan presented by Iran via Pakistan. [7:56] And the 10th point in the 10 points includes ending war on all fronts, including Lebanon. [8:03] So, Trump himself, by agreeing to the 10 points as the framework for discussion, which Pakistan and Iran have already publicly endorsed, has already included Lebanon in the discussions. [8:17] That is why yesterday, Nabi Bari, the speaker of Lebanon, called the Pakistan ambassador to inform them that Israel is still launching this aggression. [8:25] And, frankly, there's only one person who can unleash the Zionists or the Netanyahu war machine, and that is Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. [8:35] And he better do it, because otherwise Netanyahu wants to play the role of a spoiler. [8:39] And he's very upset with this whole arrangement, because all his plans have gone awry. [8:44] And it's not working out. [8:47] And he was the one who masterminded this war, as the New York Times has documented yesterday, through his February 11th briefing to the White House. [8:56] So, I think the U.S. has to stop Netanyahu from this aggression against Lebanon. [9:01] And Lebanon is part of the agenda in the peace process between U.S. and the Iranians. [9:07] Okay, so, Sultan, is that likely to happen? [9:08] Because it is a major credibility gap in these negotiations. [9:11] I mean, if they've gone to the talks in good faith, they need to do it, because they understand exactly that without reining in Netanyahu, nothing can progress. [9:21] And it's important to remind ourselves that Lebanon was dragged into this as an integral part of the war against Iran. [9:28] You know, from day one, Netanyahu said, we've been attacked from two fronts, Iran directly and Hezbollah acting on behalf of Iran, attacking us from the north. [9:38] So, if you reach a ceasefire with Iran, by implication, you know, you need to stop attacking Lebanon. [9:46] Having said that, the attack itself is vastly illegal to bomb, you know, residential areas in the middle of a capital. [9:55] It's really unthinkable for many, many nations. [10:00] Only Israel does this. [10:02] And Israel does this because of the impunity it enjoys. [10:05] And because, unfortunately, they have got us all accustomed and normalized with the mass killing that they did in Gaza. [10:11] So, for them, 250, 300 civilians going over 10 minutes is not a big deal. [10:18] And that is the real side of the situation at the moment. [10:21] All right. [10:22] Hamid Reza there in Tehran, second day of the ceasefire. [10:25] It's precarious right now, getting more precarious by the moment, it seems. [10:29] Would, do you think, Iran show restraint in the face of further Israeli provocation, should it come? [10:36] It doesn't sound as if it will, given what the leaders have been saying. [10:42] You know, Iran would prefer ceasefire to be in place. [10:46] And it has treated the current situation for the past 36 hours, or let's say for the past two days. [10:54] In the same way, it has given the chance to the other side to stop the Israelis from the attacks. [11:01] I'm not quite sure whether it is a correct policy and would be fruitful or not. [11:06] But anyway, it seems that the Iranians want to keep the ceasefire in place and put pressure on the Americans and other players to stop Israelis and include Lebanon in the ceasefire. [11:20] Well, that's what we are hearing from some European countries, from Pakistan and many other actors in the world that are asking for a pause in ceasefire. [11:31] But something that I understand is that the United States is not very interested or does not need, let's say, does not need the ceasefire anymore. [11:42] It was an offer for the Americans, for President Trump, to get rid of his deadline and his serious threat that he has made. [11:51] And he didn't have any other choice but to either carry out them or step back and withdraw from his word about the famous post that he mentioned about the civilization that's going to be end and such things. [12:07] So that was a, that threat was a war crime and carrying out that threat was a huge war crime. [12:14] So he wanted to step back from that and this ceasefire was a good excuse to stop that. [12:19] So it doesn't seem to need the ceasefire or something like that anymore. [12:25] Thank you so much. [12:26] We'll have to leave it there, gents. [12:28] Hamid Reza, Golemzadi in Tehran. [12:31] Mushahid Hussein Saeed there in Istanbul, thank you so much. [12:34] And also here in the studio, Sultan Barakat, thank you very much. [12:37] Thanks.