US-Iran talks fail - what happens next? — BBC Newscast

[0:00] Well, it's Victoria and Nick back with you on newscast today. Morning, Nick. [0:03] Hi, Vic. [0:04] And things have unravelled. And just yesterday, we were talking to newscasters [0:08] about the significance of the US and Iran being in the same room together. [0:12] And of course, we listed the stumbling blocks, didn't we? [0:15] Yeah. And I mean, that clearly was a big deal. It was 21 hours of talks. But let us not forget, [0:20] Vic, the United States and Iran have not spoken at this level since the Islamic revolution in [0:27] Iran in 1979. So right now, the stumbling blocks were clearly just too big. [0:34] We've been at it now for 21 hours. And we've had a number of substantive discussions with the [0:42] Iranians. That's the good news. The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. And I think [0:47] that's bad news for Iran much more than it's bad news for the United States of America. So we go [0:52] back to the United States having not come to an agreement. We've made very clear what our red [0:56] lines are, what things we're willing to accommodate them on and what things we're not willing to [1:01] accommodate them on. And we've made that as clear as we possibly could. And they have chosen not to [1:07] accept our terms. [1:09] So obviously, the Iranian version is that the US demands they say were excessive. We'll be [1:15] unpacking those. We'll go through those in some detail in a bit. And they're saying that the atmosphere [1:19] of these talks was mistrust, suspicion and doubt. So over right now. [1:26] And we'll try and work out what happens next on this episode of Newscast. [1:31] Hello, it's Victoria in the studio. [1:39] And it's Nick in the studio. [1:41] And it's Joe Pike also in the studio. Hello. [1:43] And we are recording at 5 to 11 on Sunday morning. And forgive me if this sounds completely naive. I had no [1:50] idea that apparently they were trying to sort this in less than 24 hours. I honestly, I thought we were [1:56] talking weeks. And now it's all over. And J.D. Vance is back in the States. [2:00] Yes. I mean, it took 18 months, didn't it, to get the deal over the Iranian nuclear program under the [2:06] Obama presidency. 18 months. Donald Trump doesn't like doing something in 18 months. I mean, he regards [2:11] 18 hours as quite long. [2:13] He's probably gone in just over 18 months. What, two and a half years? [2:16] Yeah. So he wants to get a move on. I thought, I mean, on your show, we'll be hearing it from a [2:22] bit. We heard from Wes Streeting, who's obviously the health and social care secretary. And he said, [2:26] look, these talks are over. And then he said the two most important words on your show, [2:29] they're over for now. For now. And I mean, if you want, Vic, we can sort of look at where the [2:36] difficulties are now and then sort of put that into some sort of context. So the Iranians are saying [2:42] that there were three sort of stumbling blocks. Firstly, the demand of the United States that the [2:48] Strait of Hormuz, that's, of course, where 20% of the world's oil supply normally goes through, [2:54] that that's open and not closed again by Iran. The second thing was the fate of this £900 of [3:01] enriched uranium. And let's not forget, this is enriched to nearly weapons grade. And the third [3:07] thing is the demand from Iran that $27 billion of Iranian assets frozen abroad, that they should [3:15] be released. Now, what J.D. Vance said is we, the United States, need an affirmative commitment [3:22] from Iran that they will not seek a nuclear weapon or the tools to acquire them. So that is all looking [3:29] on paper, really, really difficult. But I wonder whether actually at this point, you sort of, you [3:36] know, take yourself up to the height of a bird and you look down and you ask two big questions. [3:43] Number one, does Donald Trump want the Strait of Hormuz to be closed? No. Does Iran want to be [3:51] continually bombed by the United States and Israel? Well, Iran clearly has a much higher pain threshold, [3:58] but they will be worried if the United States were to move in on Karg Island and not just attack [4:04] military installations, but oil installations, because 90% of Iranian oil exports go from that [4:11] island. You think of those two big questions and that fundamentally means they probably don't want [4:17] this to go on. So I wonder whether we'll be back at the table at some point. [4:22] Interesting. I mean, I agree with all of what Nick said, Vic. I don't think the US failure in 20 [4:29] also ours is a massive shock. It does seemingly reflect the weakness of Donald Trump's hand and [4:35] the contrast between what Nick is talking about now and the bullishness of that pre-recorded video [4:44] announcement on the morning of the initial strikes from Donald Trump. I mean, it is a huge contrast, [4:53] especially as Donald Trump was basically saying to the Iranian people, some of them, [4:56] rise up. This is your one chance. It has clearly not gone to plan. And the two options seem to be [5:04] continue negotiations, which I'm sure will happen, but not immediately. Or is there going to be some [5:09] form of escalation? And that doesn't seem to be in Donald Trump's interest domestically for now. [5:17] No. And then overnight, Donald Trump has said, sort of bullish and casual in a way, [5:26] whatever happens, we've won. Doesn't matter what happens, we've won. Okay. But the strait is still [5:32] not open. And you said you sent two Navy vessels through it yesterday to test it. Iran says, [5:37] no, you didn't. We're no further forward. And what happens to the ceasefire? [5:43] But do you know what, Vic? I think you've put your finger on the absolutely key moment here. And it's [5:47] picking up on a very significant thing that Joe said, which is talking about how weak domestically [5:52] Donald Trump looks at the moment. And you were saying that there was Donald Trump in Miami last [5:58] night with Marco Rubio at the Ultimate Fighting Championship in Miami. And he was, as you say, [6:04] Vic, very bullish language. He was saying things, bullish, but also not just bullish, [6:08] nonchalance. We win regardless. We've destroyed them militarily. And you slightly sense with Donald [6:15] Trump and indeed the language from J.D. Vance in Islamabad is, is there some play acting going on [6:20] there? Are they wanting to show we've won? Do we care whether they come to the table? And that [6:27] actually that is a cover as Donald Trump seeks to deal with what Joe was saying is the appearance [6:34] of weakness. He wants to look strong. But actually, there will be some sort of diplomatic process [6:40] going on underneath all of that. [6:42] One of the really interesting assessments I thought on the BBC this morning was Alex Younger, [6:47] the former head of MI6, talking to you, Vic, on BBC One, who said the world is more dangerous as a [6:53] result of the war in Iran, which is open ended without a clear end game. He said the risk of the UK is we [7:00] look like our arms are folded, and we're waiting for the Americans to fail. We need to position [7:06] ourselves as helpful without crossing the line of, of, of, the securest armor is already set out. [7:14] And we need to be emotionally intelligent in our interactions, because the UK is in this awkward [7:19] position. Yes, Yvette Cooper has had this, these meetings with 40 plus of her fellow foreign ministers [7:26] from different countries. Yes, there are going to be officials, top senior foreign office officials [7:32] from those countries meeting next week. And the UK thinks it has some diplomatic role. But contrast [7:38] to the US and Iran's role, it sort of seems pretty, pretty insignificant. [7:45] Okay. [7:45] Can I just say, I thought that Alex Younger said something really interesting on your program. [7:49] He always does. He's, he's unreal, that man, in terms of his insight. [7:53] So Alex Younger used to be C, the head of MI6, the secret intelligence service. And if you're [7:59] a Bond fan, that's M. Now, the head of MI6... [8:02] You must be a Bond fan. [8:03] Well, may have been occasionally. The head of MI6 wouldn't usually spend a lot of time talking [8:10] to the president of the United States. And on your show, Alex Younger said, yeah, I know [8:15] Donald Trump quite well. [8:16] I know Donald Trump reasonably well. He's not an ideological character. He does what Donald Trump [8:21] wants to do. And in this case, he's, you know, as often happens to US presidents towards the [8:28] end of their time, they become more traditional. And he's become a more traditional president [8:33] in a really idiosyncratic, slightly weird way, intervening in the Middle East, hanging [8:38] out with Israel, doing wars. It's quite a traditional playbook. [8:41] Let's talk a little bit about southern Lebanon, because Israel has continued its attacks on southern [8:47] Lebanon. So obviously, there's no ceasefire there. That's clear. They were due to hold [8:54] their own talks in Washington next week. That is, a representative for the Israeli government [8:58] and a representative for the Lebanese government. Here's the Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister, Dr [9:04] Tariq Mitri. [9:05] I'm not using the word conditional, but I think for those meetings to be meaningful, we've got [9:14] to see some sort of cessation of hostilities, no matter if provisional. How could you engage [9:25] in meaningful discussions, preparing through negotiations to talk about all issues? How can [9:34] you do that while tens and hundreds of people are being killed or injured? You're very, very, [9:44] concerned. [9:45] We've got to put a stop to this, to put this on hold, to be able to have a constructive [9:54] conversation. But we are going on Tuesday to the meeting that will be held at the State [10:01] Department. [10:02] Now, I should say I recorded that interview with the Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister yesterday. [10:06] So I don't know if those talks on Tuesday will still go ahead now that the big talks in [10:11] Islamabad have broken down. Just to say, Israel has said its operations in southern Lebanon [10:15] and actually across Lebanon are aimed at weakening Hezbollah and achieving what they call their [10:20] military objectives. Lebanese officials say during the whole of this conflict, more than [10:24] 1700 people have been killed. This is the UK government's view on the peace talks breaking [10:29] down overnight. The health secretary, Wes Streeting, was talking for the government on BBC One earlier. [10:35] Well, it's obviously disappointing that the talks have broken down for now. But the optimist [10:42] in me says two things. Firstly, the mere fact that the US and the Iranians were willing to [10:48] get around the table together is highly unusual and necessary. It's the only way we're going [10:53] to end this war. Secondly, the nature of diplomacy is that every day ends in failure until you achieve [11:01] success. So I don't think we should be too surprised or disheartened. [11:06] But what are you expecting now then? What is next? [11:08] We want to make sure that the ceasefire holds. We want to make sure that we see a negotiated [11:14] end to this and one that puts Iran's nuclear ambitions to bed. Because, you know, we've made [11:23] a conscious decision as a country. The Prime Minister has been very clear this was not our war. [11:29] We didn't choose war in Iran. And Keir Starmer made a choice that I think most British Prime [11:36] Ministers alive today would not have made. [11:38] Can we just try and nail what the possibilities are of what might happen next? [11:43] Well, one thing we do know, Vic, is that Wes Streeting is the best communicator in this [11:48] government. And he was working incredibly hard in that interview with you to make sure he did not create [11:53] any headlines on Iran, because the UK is not a major player here. So what's the UK going to do? [12:00] Well, clearly Yvette Cooper, the Foreign Secretary, is going to continue with those, what is it, 40 strong talks [12:05] with other countries, so that there may be a process to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open. [12:12] But that doesn't mean sending warships there tomorrow. It means in the event of a peace deal, there could be some sort of process on hand. [12:20] The next challenge Keir Starmer faces is saying yes or no to allowing American bombers to take off from UK bases. [12:30] As he makes very clear, that can only be in the context of collective self-defence. [12:35] And interestingly, last week, the Prime Minister was saying, we're monitoring. We're monitoring what those bombers do, [12:42] because there is a red line for us. The UK will not allow those bases to be used for offensive operations. [12:48] But on the big picture of what do we do where this bigger process goes? Well, we watch. The UK watches. [12:57] Right. But in terms of the big picture, the possibilities are the ceasefire holes. The talks in Washington DC between Lebanon and Israel go ahead. [13:08] Donald Trump escalates the war again, perhaps goes back to the threat he made on Truth Social last week. [13:16] The war starts up again. What have I missed? What else could happen? [13:18] Well, one reasonably senior person in White Hill told me in the last 48 hours or so that one of the key things they do every evening is sit and look at the Truth Social posts of Donald Trump, [13:31] that account and wait to see what is happening next. [13:33] Wow. [13:34] That is a key part of the sort of... [13:37] The diplomacy and inverted commas. [13:39] Yeah. The daily schedule of people in government circles, in diplomatic circles. Of course it is. There is this slightly bizarre way that announcements are made unexpectedly. [13:53] The other thing I think it's worth saying is that the focus on Iran is really helpful for Keir Starmer and his government. [14:01] One ahead of the local elections. They think this is an issue that they are comparatively strong on, even though opposition parties say, well, they didn't necessarily agree with the initial Starmer decisions, but also think the UK military hasn't responded quickly and wasn't that prepared. [14:17] But the UK government think they're in a good situation. [14:19] Therefore, they'd far rather Keir Starmer was having meetings about this or touring the Gulf around Iran rather than community events. [14:27] And of course, he's not really welcome in Scotland and probably not that welcome in Wales either. [14:32] The second thing is there are other people in government who think that if there was to be a threat to his leadership after the May elections, [14:40] the more you focus on Iran, the more it's in the headlines, the more he's looking like a world leader responding to events, the safer he is. [14:49] Because how navel gazing, how self-indulgent, they argue, would it be if we're talking about replacing him with somebody while these really serious, scary events are underway? [15:01] That's why I think it's likely that number 10 will try and sort of create more visual events to make it onto news bulletins in the papers with Keir Starmer doing stuff, [15:11] even though critics have been pointing out that there's no real news here. [15:15] We've had all these COBRA meetings, business leader meetings, news conferences, as Nick says, without really much news being created. [15:23] Because the other sort of side of the coin is they do not want to frustrate the Americans and they're trying to keep that relationship going, [15:32] even though they've been sort of dodging brickbats and insults from the White House. [15:38] So, Joe, I was presenting Newsnight on Friday night and I can sort of monitor your work activity. [15:44] And I could see that you were very, very busy with this news that was first broken in The Times, that the Chagos deal has basically been shelved. [15:56] It has, yes. And maybe not entirely a coincidence that that news was announced before MPs get back from their Easter recess, [16:05] when opposition parties could call an urgent question. [16:08] There does seem to be a view within government that they wanted the narrative around this to be about, look, it's unfortunate. [16:17] This is not what we wanted to happen. We still want that deal to go ahead. [16:21] But we couldn't do it without US support. [16:23] What they don't want, I think, to focus on too much is what both the Conservatives and Reform have been saying, [16:28] which is that, look, we played a part. We've won here. [16:31] It's our victory because we've been campaigning domestically. [16:34] But also there are conservative politicians like Ian Duncan Smith, the former party leader, reform leader Nigel Farage, [16:41] who said to me he's been talking to various people in the White House about this for four months who want to claim credit. [16:48] And I think it's really important to explain why this, why Chagos matters. [16:54] And the best example is this Iran war, is this conflict, of course, was far easier for the US to launch bombing missions from Chagos and from Fairford in Gloucestershire, [17:08] which is the American's base for heavy bombers in Europe, than it would be from Missouri or Louisiana or North Dakota, where they have other RAF bases. [17:20] This is a hugely strategically important base. [17:24] That, of course, is why the UK government want this deal with Mauritius, because they think it's the best way to preserve it, to hand it to Mauritius. [17:32] Should we just explain? It's the British Indian Ocean Overseas Territory. [17:37] At the heart of that is this massive base, Diego Garcia, which is currently in UK hands, but used by the United States, hugely strategically significant. [17:47] The UK government is there is legal uncertainty over the sovereignty of this, because Mauritius is saying it's ours. [17:56] So what the UK proposes is you hand sovereignty to Mauritius, but then the UK leases the Chagos Islands back for 99 years and the base can continue functioning. [18:09] That's basically the problem. [18:10] Absolutely. Very well, very, very well explained, Nick. [18:13] I think the view in government is that this deal is still sort of in the ether, like maybe it can be brought back at some stage. [18:23] But it's not going to be the legislation is not going to be passed this session before prorogation. [18:30] And it's not going to be in the King's speech in the middle of next month. [18:34] Therefore, it could be brought back in the next parliamentary session for the next year or so. [18:38] But it's not something that is going to be imminent. [18:41] And of course, the hope of some opposition parties is that it is completely dead. [18:46] And they have been using this moment to distill their criticism of Keir Starmer. [18:53] Kami Badenoch saying it's another indictment of a prime minister, the Lib Dems saying it's shambolic reform, saying it's a shabby saga. [19:02] It clearly has been embarrassing. Some would argue humiliating. [19:05] But Donald Trump did say publicly he thought the deal was OK last year, didn't he? [19:10] And of course, that was one of the successes of the initial Oval Office meeting of Keir Starmer. [19:15] He thought, oh, we've got him on side. [19:17] And even more recently, the State Department seemed to be more on side. [19:21] Why did Donald Trump change his mind? UK opposition parties, some of them think their involvement was key. [19:27] Others think, well, it's sort of revenge for the fact that Keir Starmer refused access to the US Air Force, [19:36] to Fairfield and Gloucestershire and to the Chagos to launch these offensive strikes. [19:40] I mean, Ben Judah, who until relatively recently was a special adviser to David Lammy, [19:44] and obviously when he was foreign secretary, says that the Joe Biden administration pleaded with the UK [19:50] to do this deal because they wanted total certainty over the legal status of the Diego Garcia base. [19:56] And when the Trump administration came in, the view of David Lammy was, [20:02] we have to have the support of the new administration. [20:05] And they were absolutely confident that what they described as the US deep state, [20:09] either military, thought this was the best way of preserving that base. [20:13] And that was the view of Marco Rubio, the secretary of state. [20:16] It was the view of Donald Trump until, as Joe say, the events unfolded as they did. [20:22] He's changed his mind. But of course, it's possible, Vic, that the president changes his mind on this again. [20:27] A hundred percent. This is what the health secretary we're streeting said about this. [20:31] Well, we said all the way along, we wouldn't proceed without American support. [20:35] Taking a step back, both our predecessors in the Conservatives and this government have had one objective in mind, [20:43] which is how do we secure the Chagos Islands for the long term? [20:46] Because it's vital to our national security. It's vital for America. [20:50] And in terms of our collective security, it's essential too. [20:53] OK. And we want to make sure that it is secure for the long term. [20:56] The Americans agree with that objective. We'll work through with Washington to iron out some of the difficulties. [21:02] We will be in the right position. The UK government hasn't changed its position. [21:06] OK. But we need to take the Americans with us. [21:08] Every week there is something to test the UK-US relationship at the moment, isn't there? [21:12] The special relationship is currently the especially difficult special relationship. [21:17] And what is interesting is that, you know, Keir Starmer made a really big decision, [21:23] which was to say no to taking part in offensive operations in this. [21:29] I mean, you've got to go back to sort of Ted Heath having a difficult relationship with Richard Nixon. [21:35] You've got to go back to Harold Wilson saying no, we're not going to be taking part in the Vietnam War. [21:40] To see a UK Prime Minister so publicly and consistently saying no. [21:46] There have been disagreements. There have been arguments. [21:49] To do something like that is a big moment. [21:51] And what is interesting to pick up on what Joe was saying is that last week we had the local party election broadcast for the Labour Party. [21:58] Barely a word about councils. It was all about the decision that Keir Starmer has made here because he thinks this could remake and save his premiership. [22:08] OK. What should newscasters be looking out for next week? [22:11] Parliament is back. [22:13] It is. I think I'm not sure this meeting of political directors, top civil servants of the 40 countries involved in what were last week Yvette Cooper talk. [22:24] I'm not sure that will be hugely significant, but that's going to be happening at the start of the week. [22:29] And I think if I was an opposition party, I might want to haul a minister if they're not coming anyway to Parliament to explain what's happening with Chagos. [22:38] And certainly for reform of the Conservatives, they want to get more publicity for their argument that this is a UK government failure and that it has been mishandled from the start by Keir Starmer and the Foreign Office. [22:51] You can imagine a whole bunch of either urgent questions in the Commons tomorrow or statements. [22:56] One of the things they'll pick up on is what you were talking to Wes Streeting about, Vic, which is the government is saying that it's increasing defence spending. [23:03] But where is the defence investment plan? Looks like we might be getting that at the end of May. [23:09] That's the we are going to spend this money and this is how we're going to spend it. [23:12] But I should tell you, just looking ahead to this week, there's one thing that's happening right now that could be of enormous significance, which is the elections in Hungary. [23:21] Oh, yes. Now, Viktor Orban, who has this quite interesting accolade of being the favourite European leader of both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. [23:32] Fancy that. He's liked by both of them. He has been in power continuously for 16 years. [23:39] And if the opinion polls are to be believed, and as we always say, Vic, there's only one poll that matters. [23:45] And that's happening right now in Hungary. If they're to be believed, then Peter Magyar, who's the main opposition leader, double digit lead, may win, may become prime minister. [23:55] Interestingly, Peter Magyar is a former ally of Viktor Orban. He is also quite conservative. He is of that ilk. [24:02] But he has split with Viktor Orban and he's saying, let's focus on the cost of living. [24:09] Let's focus on what he calls corruption of the Orban regime. [24:13] Let's not take the Orban approach of saying everything in Hungary is the fault of Brussels and Kyiv. [24:20] So it's a big moment if power changes hands in Hungary. A big moment for Europe and also a big moment beyond that potentially for Ukraine. [24:28] And also if we think about where we go from now, what's going to happen? [24:32] How many Israeli attacks are there on Lebanon? And what does that mean? [24:38] Because Iran has said that there needs to be a ceasefire in Lebanon. [24:41] But also what happens in Iran? Does diplomacy keep going or do we see more violence? [24:49] Thank you for having us this weekend. Yeah, really appreciate your company. [24:54] And Adam is back tomorrow. That's it from us. Goodbye. [24:57] Goodbye from Nick. Bye bye.