US-Iran talks : Analysts weigh nuclear rights, sanctions and regional risks

[0:00] to discuss this further. Joining us once again in the studio, Sultan Barakat, who's a professor [0:04] of public policy with Hamad bin Khalifa University. And in Lahore is Ijaz Haider, who's a defense [0:10] and national security analyst. Let's start with you, Professor. We know what the U.S. wants. [0:17] How easy would that be for Iran to give? You were saying when we spoke an hour ago that there is no [0:23] nuclear program anyway. Well, there is no program on the ground, but it is in the minds of the [0:31] Americans and the Israelis as it's there as a threat. So the Iranians, I think they need to do [0:37] take steps to reassure everyone that this is not the fact, not the reality. And now they're in a [0:44] much better position than they were a few months ago to do so because of the various destruction [0:48] that they've suffered, but also because of the international interest, growing interest in the [0:53] issue. But if I may just go back to the issue of release of assets, because that's quite important [0:59] as a confidence building exercise. You know, last year there were negotiations between the Iranians [1:05] and the Americans that led to the release of five prisoners on both sides. And there were assets that [1:13] were approved to be released, and those were held back. So now I think maybe the Americans have an [1:19] opportunity to offer that those assets can be already used by the Iranians because they were linked to [1:25] previous round of talks in order to encourage the Iranians and to build a degree of confidence with [1:31] them. And it's true that the Americans, and now you can add to that Abu Dhabi holds billions of dollars [1:38] for the Iranians. And, of course, from the Iranian perspective, it's not enough just to have a ceasefire. [1:46] They want to reach a state where they are part of the international community again. So removing the [1:54] sanctions and releasing the assets is a very important leverage in the hand of the United States at the moment. [1:59] Are Iran's demands unreasonable? I mean, if you listen to what the U.S. president says, Iran is being [2:08] completely unreasonable. But when you sit and look at things sensibly, it doesn't seem as though Iran [2:15] is asking too much. No, I mean, if you look at it from their perspective, they are asking for what is [2:21] their right, basically. So the enrichment of uranium and the development of a power-based program using [2:27] nuclear energy is their right. And they should be able to have a program that is independent [2:35] of the international community. It's very odd, although some countries have accepted it and [2:41] they're using this sort of arrangements, it's very odd to be reliant on other nations to supply you [2:48] with the uranium to be able to generate the energy. It defeats the purpose. If you still have to buy it [2:54] from somewhere else, what's the point of developing your own independent energy? And it plays into that [3:00] whole sort of colonial arrangement that you must come to one of us, the big fives plus Israel, to be [3:06] able to have your program. So basically, they have a point there. Then the difficulty I think we have [3:16] with them, particularly in this region, is the way they were totally off target in their actions around the [3:24] Arab Spring and the way they intervened in a lot of affairs around the Arab world that were totally [3:30] unnecessary. And now they realize that. They've just fueled sectarian conflicts across the region [3:36] that have now come to bite them again. I mean, they must regret a lot of these interventions. [3:43] And we saw the way they withdrew from Syria very, very quickly. And I suspect they'll probably do the [3:50] same with Yemen and elsewhere, that that agenda does not help their own national development. [3:56] Ijaz Haider, President Trump said earlier on Saturday that the U.S. is actively clearing the [4:03] Strait of Hormuz. What militarily does that operation involve? And why now? Is it a dangerous moment [4:11] to do that while talks are underway there in Islamabad? Well, I mean, President Trump, [4:20] if he could clear the Strait of Hormuz, frankly, his delegation would not have been in Islamabad. [4:27] Of course, I'm not saying that clearing and cleansing the Strait of Hormuz is the only factor here. [4:34] But operationally speaking, the kind of assets that he would need to deploy, especially if they also [4:42] have to confront the Iranian response, it would be extremely difficult. I mean, we know that he's [4:49] already been calling upon various other countries, including his NATO allies, has been really cut up [4:56] with them for not responding to that. So I don't think it's something that can be done easily and [5:03] without a cost. I also believe that at this point in time, it's more about bluster than anything else. [5:11] He is desperately trying to sell the idea that this war that he started, which essentially is [5:22] Netanyahu's war, who sold it to him, is something that, you know, the Americans or the United States [5:29] of America has gotten something out of this, which obviously is not right. It's incorrect. And I mean, [5:35] people know this, even in the United States, there's so much, you know, criticism of this war and how [5:43] this has been conducted. But I don't think that this is the time for him to actually go for something [5:51] something like this. There was a lot of talk about shallow ground incursions taking over the [5:56] Khark Island or some of the coastal areas. This rescue op that they mounted and the cost that they [6:04] had to pay for that obviously also played an important role in determining rationally that [6:14] this is not something that can actually happen. Very briefly, because time is tight. Given everything [6:24] that has happened in recent weeks, the escalation we saw beforehand, how much of an achievement is it, [6:30] as far as Pakistan is concerned, simply to have got these two sides in a room and talking face to face? [6:36] It's important. You know, I mean, Pakistan has been walking the phones. They've been in contact [6:43] with the Iranians. They've been in contact with President Trump and his team. They're trying to [6:48] get both sides together. It's a big breakthrough in many ways that they're going to have direct talks [6:55] up until now. Whenever there have been talks, they've been indirect, except, you know, when there was [7:02] the bond process. So it's important. But essentially, the idea is, is there a mutually hurting stalemate here? [7:10] That's one thing. Secondly, is there a mutually enticing opportunity here? I mean, Mr. Barakat just [7:16] talked about this, and I think he's absolutely correct. The point really is that there is a lot of [7:23] distance between the American and the Iranian positions when it comes to enrichment, when it comes [7:28] to missiles, when it comes to, you know, what what is called proxies, but what I would refer to as [7:34] Iranian allies. So Iran definitely wants sanctions lifted. But Iran also has to have the enrichment [7:45] capability, which under Article 4 of the NPT, read in conjunction with Articles 1 and 2, is an [7:51] inalienable right of every state, including the ones that have signed the NPT as non-nuclear [7:57] weapon state. So, so that point is there. And legally, Iran is on a strong footing. So Iran has [8:05] to, these talks have to somehow bring these two issues together, sanctions relief, and keeping the [8:15] right to enrich. Okay. Now, Iran has been saying that we'll downblend the 60% that were, that was [8:22] enriched, the 440 kg that everyone's talking about. But whether the Americans are going to accept that, [8:28] we'll have to see that. Professor, let's talk about the elephant in the room, or perhaps the [8:33] elephant that isn't in the room, because Israel isn't there. Of course, Iran insists that Lebanon [8:37] must be part of any wider ceasefire arrangement. Israel rejects that outright. I mean, how much of [8:43] a problem is Israel going to be to these negotiations? It's absolutely central. I mean, the whole [8:49] tension between Iran and Israel started with Israel invading Lebanon in 1978, and then in 1982, which [8:57] led to the creation of Hezbollah, supported by Iran, and got them in direct confrontation. Before that, [9:04] there were no problems between Iran and Israel. And under the Shah, it was the opposite. They were [9:09] friends. So Israel is central. And the Palestinian issue and the Israeli agenda of expansion is also [9:16] important if we are going to have long-term stability in the region. And I think this is very clear to the [9:22] Iranians. And it's also clear to the Israelis who fear that lifting the sanctions of Iran would really [9:30] unleash greater power against Israel. I mean, all what we saw in terms of missile development and the [9:37] ability to reach so many, you know, thousands of kilometers and so on, all of that happened under [9:42] sanctions. Can you imagine that this has been the strictest sanctions ever? And this country has [9:48] managed to develop all that technology. So from the Israeli perspective, they say, well, if you lift [9:52] their sanctions and if we allow them to become one other nation amongst the rest, then we are under [9:59] greater threat. So they still see it from their perspective. And I think Netanyahu in particular [10:03] will do everything to derail the possibilities of talks. He would like to keep this tension very high, [10:09] maybe not direct war ongoing, but he needs the U.S. to continue to commit to security in the region, [10:16] to stand up to Iran on his behalf. And more so, he needs the Arab states to continue to lose billions [10:23] of dollars in, you know, addressing a threat that is not necessarily their direct, their first problem. [10:30] So it's not in his interest to see these talks going on. It's not in his interest to see sanctions [10:35] being lefted in any form of the Iranians at the moment. [10:42] Good to talk to you again, Professor. Many thanks indeed. Sultan Barakat and Ijaz Haider in Lahore. [10:48] Thanks to you both.